Solar Photovoltaic TechnologyTechnology Forecast and Assessment

Stuart RockEngineering Science, Senior

April 14, 2014

What is Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Tech?

Generating electricity from the Sun

Photoelectric Effect:

Absorb photons of light and release electrons

Capture of free electrons yields electric current

ELECTRICITY!

volta

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2002/solarcells/

Not a new topic, been around for a while

Discovered by Will Adams, with Selenium, 1876

Albert Einstein, Nobel Prize, 1905

(Nature of light and the photoelectric effect. Basis of PV)

Bell Labs, viable (6%) PV cells, Silicon , 1954

Thin Films – Concentrated PV – Spectrum Split PV

http://inhabitat.com/sharps-concentrator-solar-cell-sets-43-5-conversion-efficiency-record/

http://www.technologyreview.com/feat uredstory/513671/ultra-efficient-solar-power/

http://cdn.phys.org/newman/gfx/news/hires/2011/15173.jpg

Cadmium Telluride (CdTe)

15-25%

35-45%

9-11%

Who would be interested in Solar PV?

• Real estate

• Construction

• Transportation

• Oil and gas (fossil fuels)

• Carbon neutral lifestyle

• Save money

• Professor Van Schaack

• Eric Woodardhttp://d2mtr37y39tpbu.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/energy-hungry-american-high.png

Answering the specific question of:

In what year will solar PV electricity be cheaper than grid electricity

produced from fossil fuels?

When will solar PV generated electricity account for 30% of electricity production in the United States?

When will the capacity of solar PV cells be enough to generate 100% of the electricity in the United States

Current landscape of solar PVPrimary Energy Consumption by Source and Sector

http://dupress.com/articles/energy-independence/

Trend

Monitoring

Scenarios & Assessment

Methods used in Solar PV Forecast

- Cost per Kilowatt-hour of Solar PV generated electricity

- Total solar investment, ann. production, installed capacity

- Flexible glass and roll-to-roll processing

- Various promising methods of solar production of electricity

- Factors having the greatest effect on solar PV, in next 10 yrs - Electricity being freely available to throughout the world

Trend Forecast Findings

In the year 2020:- Over $100 Billion invested in solar PV

- Capable of installing over 1,000 Gwh per year

- Able to produce 5,000 Gwh of electricity per year

Trend Forecast Findings Cont.

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$.12

Monitoring Forecast Findings

Critical developments to monitor

• Conversion efficiencies

• Manufacturing abilities

• Production scale

• Costs, size, and weight considerations

“If you build it, they will come”

Scenarios and Assessment Findings

Four Scenarios Considered Economic & Technological

1. Speculation Runs High

2. Sun is Setting on Solar

3. More like So-No-More

4. (KEY) Solar Golden Age

Eventually free and unlimited electricity across world Humans collectively use 16 TW-years per year, receive 23,000+

EPIC TERMS for Solar PV Technology

Economic

Political

Intellectual

Cultural

Technological

Ecological

Religious-Ethical

Managerial

Social

- Profitability- Market Demands- Payback Period

- National Energy Policy- Subsidies and Tax Incentives- Environmental Protection Agency- Foreign Relations (OPEC)

- Infrastructure Integration- Large scale production- Spread around

- Conversion Efficiencies- Advancements in Solar R&D- Ease of Implementation

Trends and Consequences of Solar PV

Driving:• Efficiency, functionality, and consumer ease

• Synergies with nanomaterials, batteries, and grid

Opposing:

• Large upfront costs, rare earth metals, lifespan, installation, maintenance, property demands

Desirable, Direct, and Anticipated

Undesirable, Indirect, and Unanticipated

Changes in Equality

Conclusion

• Cheap, clean, convenient, and reliable

• Energy Source of Future. Prepare Now!

• Cross the Chasm in 2020

• "Type A” in Gartner's investment model(high levels of benefit, for the intermediate 5-10 year future)

• High levels of confidence and reliability(variety of data sources, no known factors causing bias)

• Not IF but WHEN