© 2 0 1 1 J OA N N A B E LTO W S K A A N D A M Y R A E .
Systems ThinkingLessons From The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook by Senge, Kleiker, Roberts, Ross and Smith
Presentation by
Joanna Beltowska @jbeltowskaAmy Rae @elucidateamy
© 2 0 1 1 J OA N N A B E LTO W S K A A N D A M Y R A E .
Oh hai again!
2
© 2 0 1 1 J OA N N A B E LTO W S K A A N D A M Y R A E . 3
All of these things are systems.
© 2 0 1 1 J OA N N A B E LTO W S K A A N D A M Y R A E . 4
Are you looking at a system or a bunch of stuff?
Can you identify the individual parts?
Do the parts affect each other?
Do the parts together produce an effect that is
different from the effect of each part on its own?
Does the effect persist in a variety of
circumstances?4
3
1
2
x
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Ping pong is a system.
PART 2
PART 3
PART 4
PART 1
IT HAS IDENTIFIABLE INDIVIDUAL PARTS.
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Ping pong is a system.
RULES OF THE GAME
LAWS OF PHYSICS
LAWS OF PHYSICS
THE PARTS AFFECT EACH OTHER.
© 2 0 1 1 J OA N N A B E LTO W S K A A N D A M Y R A E . 7
Ping pong is a system.
RULES OF THE GAME
LAWS OF PHYSICS
LAWS OF PHYSICS
TOGETHER, THESE PARTS CREATE A UNIQUE EFFECT.
© 2 0 1 1 J OA N N A B E LTO W S K A A N D A M Y R A E . 8
Ping pong is a system.THIS EFFECT CAN BE REPLICATED IN MULTIPLE SITUATIONS.
RULES OF THE GAME
LAWS OF PHYSICS
LAWS OF PHYSICS
X ,2 X ...3X ,1
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Finding and analyzing systems is difficult work.
The following pages will introduce systems thinking,
a set of tools and methods to help you along the way.
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WARNING:
Systems always surprise us.
Don’t fret! This way for the three main reasons why.
①© 2 0 1 1 J OA N N A B E LTO W S K A A N D A M Y R A E . 11
We are in a linear thinkers
on-n
linearworld.
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Crops Yield
Fertilizer Application
In a nonlinear relationship, the cause does not produce a
proportional effect.
is range represents the optimal amount of fertilizer to apply, and if too much is applied,the yield might even go down.
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Reality is made up of circles, but we see straight
lines. Herein lies the beginnings of our limitation as
systems thinkers.
Peter Senge
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The Linearity Double Dunk
Formal education rewards
linear thinking.
Western languages are biased
towards a linear world view
because of their
subject-to-verb
object structure. This
structure trains our
brains to link together
thoughts in the same way.
Language shapes perception.
Research with young children
indicates that we have
latent skills as systems
thinkers that are
undeveloped, even
repressed, by formal
education.
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In the real world, boundaries don’t exist. There are only
boundaries of thought, perception and social agreement.②
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In decision making, rationality of individuals is limited by
the information they have.
BOUNDED RATIONALITY
Fishermen are not aware of the total number of fish in the ocean or how many fish others harvest. This is a typical example of a dilemma referred to as “The Tragedy of the Commons” - a situation in which a group of individuals act rationally in their own self-interest and deplete a shared limited resource.
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Tacit knowledge
Explicit knowledge
MENTAL MODELS
Individuals are also inhibited by their mental models - the
images, assumptions, and stories which we carry in our
minds of ourselves, other people, institutions, and every
aspect of the world.
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Systems fool us by presenting
themselves as a single event.
The stock market crashed in 1929, making headlines. This single event was overemphasized, and other, more important, events influencing the Great Depression were less salient, like the 200,000 factory workers being replaced by machines and farmland value falling by 40%.
Wheat prices per bushel in dollars
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1900 1910 1920 1930
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Events accumulate into dynamic patterns of behavior.
e Great Depression begins
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Long-term behavior provides clues to the underlying system structure.
System structures are created by the choices people make
consciously or unconsciously over time.
In systems thinking, structure is the pattern of
interrelationships among the key components of the system.
That might include hierarchy and process, but it also
includes attitudes and perceptions, the quality of products,
the ways in which decisions are made, etc.
e winter of 1929 was a so called “long wave” winter. Long wave theory, a subset of systems thinking, says that economic crisis come and go in cycles.
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Researchers at MIT came up with ways to understand and
categorize different types of systems.
With practice, these tools can help you unpack complex
problems in a flash.
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Think of these tools as your diagnostic repertoire.
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T H E F O U N D A T I O N O F S Y S T E M S M O D E L I N G
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Links and Loops
Links are arrows that represent influence between elements
in a system.
Loops are combinations of links that that reveal
interdependencies; In a loop, every element is both the
cause and the effect.
Example: The more lolcat pictures on
icanhazcheeseburger.com, the more time people spend
there, commenting on lolcat pictures, and becoming inspired
to create more. (Because we all know lolcats are awesomely
hilarious!)TIME SPENT ON THE SITE
NO. OF LOLCATS
Cause
NUMBER OF LOLCATS
TIME SPENT ON THE SITE
Eect
A LINK:
A LOOP:
Balancing loops occur in systems that are self-regulating.
The system has an inherent goal, and when that goal isn’t
met, intense pressure is applied to reach it.
Example: Your refrigerator’s goal is to keep food at a chilly
35 degrees. When a half-eaten pizza enters, the refrigerator
decreases the temperature to cool the warm pizza, bringing
the refrigerator back to equilibrium.
Reinforcing loops occur in systems that steadily grow
and/or collapse over time.
Example: The Nuclear Arms Race between the US and the
Soviet Union during the cold war is a typical example of a
reinforcing loop. The US created the first atomic bomb in
1945. The Soviet Union followed in 1949. By the 1950s both
sides had enough nuclear power to obliterate each other.
The system then declined when both stockpiles decreased in
the 1990s.
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T W O T Y P E S O F L O O P S T H A T O C C U R F R E Q U E N T L Y
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Balancing and Reinforcing Loops
(R)
US ARMS
SOVIET ARMS
THREAT TO SOVIET UNION
NEED TO BUILD SOVIET ARMS
THREAT TO US
NEED TO BUILD US ARMS
Sources: Natural Resources Defense Council (1946-2002 data), Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (2003-2006 data)
45,000
0
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
SOVIET
USA
NUCLEAR STOCKPILES 1945 - 2005
Exponential growth
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A D A P T E D F R O M T H E F I F T H D I S C I P L I N E B Y P E T E R M . S E N G E . U S E T H E S E T E M P L A T E S A S A S T A R T I N G P L A C E F O R S Y S T E M A N A L Y S I S .
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Balancing and Reinforcing Loops: Templates
Optional intermediate element (might be a consequence of performance)
Growing action(what you do, or someone else does, to generate growth or decline)
Optional intermediate element(might be a driver of performance and/or a consequence of action)
Actual performance(that you measure or observe, which you can see growing or declining)
REINFORCING LOOP TEMPLATE BALANCING LOOP TEMPLATE
Actual performance (that you measure or observe; often a problem symptom)
Corrective action (can be a quick x or a driver of your performance)
Gap (discrepancy between desired and actual performance, either visible to you as a shortfall, evident as a need, or felt as a pressure)
Target or goal (desired performance, either known or unknown to you)
Optional intermediate element (might be a driver of performance)
(R)
(B)
Causal loop diagrams combine multiple loops and reveal
more detail about the system. A “plus” indicates that the
elements change in the same direction while a “minus”
indicates that the elements change in opposite directions.
Example: The bank panic during the Great Depression was
caused by a public fear of bank failure. This caused people to
withdraw their personal savings, reducing bank solvency,
which in turn drove private withdrawals of funds further in a
spiraling, reinforcing, loop.
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H E L P I N G Y O U T E L L A M O R E R O B U S T S T O R Y
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Causal Loop Diagrams
Casual loop diagram describing the bank panic during the Great Depression (adapted from Beyond Training Wheels by John Sterman).
FEAR OF BANK FAILURE
PERCEIVED SOLVENCY OF BANK
TENDENCY TO WITHDRAW PERSONAL SAVINGS
WEAK ORUNCERTAIN ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
BANK RESERVESON HAND
SOLVENCYOF BANK
+
+
-
-
+
+
-
(+) (+)
-
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A P E R I O D I C T A B L E O F T H E M O S T C O M M O N S Y S T E M B E H A V I O R S
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System Archetypes
If we think of each system as a story, system archetypes
are the classic stories that we keep seeing over and over
again. By measuring our systems against these classics, we
can quickly identify the dominating behavioral patterns.
For example, “Fixes That Backfire”: A company is struggling
with profitability (the problem symptom) and decides to let
some people go to reduce costs (the fix). Profitability initially
improves, but the loss of experienced employees as well as a
drop in morale impact productivity negatively (the
unintended consequence).
CURRENT PROFITS
PRODUCTIVITY
STAFFINGCUTS
Unintended consequences
Problem symptom
Fix
PROBLEM SYMPTOM
Original threshold of tolerance
“Fix” applied
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A D A P T E D F R O M T H E F I F T H D I S C I P L I N E B Y P E T E R M . S E N G E
Archetypes: Comparison Chart
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REINFORCING LOOP
An important variable accelerates up (or down),
with exponential growth or collapse.
“SHIFTING THE BURDEN”
The reliance of the short-term fix grows stronger,
while efforts to fundamentally correct the real
problem grow weaker. The problem symptom
alternately improves and deteriorates.
BALANCING LOOP
There is a movement toward a target (without
delay), or else oscillation, hovering around a single
target (with delay).
“LIMITS TO GROWTH”
There is a growth (sometimes dramatic growth), leveling off or falling into decline.
“TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS”
Total activity grows, but the gains from individual
activities are dropping.
“ACCIDENTAL ADVERSARIES”
Each side’s performance either declines or stays
level and low, while enmity or competitiveness
increases over time.
“FIXES THAT BACKFIRE”
A problem symptom alternately improves (the
problem variable goes down) and deteriorates
(the problem goes up, worse than before).
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Stocks And Flows
Stock and flow diagrams are another way to analyze
systems. Stocks are tangible and measurable, and they
change over time through the actions of flows. Stocks act as
buffers, delays or shock absorbers in systems.
Example: Imagine you’ve decided to take a bath. You begin
to fill your bathtub with hot water and go read while you’re
waiting for the tub to fill. When you come back, the water is
a bit too hot for your liking. To get the temperature down
quickly, you open up the drain and turn the cold water faucet
on. Your bathtub is now a simple system with one stock (the
water in the tub), one inflow (the cold water) and one
outflow (the water that is leaving through the drain).
Stock
Inow
WATER IN BATH TUB
Inow OutowStock
COLD WATER DRAINED WATER
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Systems Analysis Guidelines
All models are simplifications of the real world. It’s up to
you to decide how much detail to illustrate.
There are no right answers. Mapping out a system will
reveal a set of potential actions you may take. As you
become more a more proficient systems thinker, you’ll begin
to recognize the consequences of different interventions.
Cause and effect will not be closely related in time and
space. Don't look for leverage near the symptoms of your
problem.
Good results in a complex system depend on bringing in as
many perspectives as possible. Consider who else you can
bring in to make your system model more informed.
Use your intuition when you work with archetypes. It's not
critical that you pick the right archetype - as long as it rings
true with your story, it's good enough as a starting point.
© 2 0 1 1 J OA N N A B E LTO W S K A A N D A M Y R A E . 31
MENTAL MODELS
SYSTEMS
PATTERNS OF BEHAVIOR
EVENTSLE
VE
RA
GE
FO
R L
AS
TIN
G C
HA
NG
E
ADAPTED FROM THE FIFTH DISCIPLINE FIELDBOOK BY PETER M. SENGE
A good systems thinker avoids traps by looking for multiple
levels operating simultaneously.
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A S T O R Y O F H O W S T R A T E G Y D E F E A T E D 1 : 2 5 O D D S
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Good Systems Thinkers Make Good Strategists
On October 26, 1597, the Korean admiral Yi Sun-sin
famously defeated the Japanese fleet of 333 units with only
13 ships at his disposal.
Yi strategically chose the Myeongnyang Strait as the arena
for his last stand with the Japanese based on its strong
currents, narrowness, rough tides and surrounding shadowy
hillsides. By reading the environment as a system, admiral Yi
used it to his advantage.
No other naval battle involving fleets of this size, has
resulted in a victory for such a proportionately small force,
also making it one of the greatest military achievements in
world history.
Admiral Yi: a badass systems thinker.
The challenges society faces are growing.
© 2 0 1 1 J OA N N A B E LTO W S K A A N D A M Y R A E . 33
Measles (1963)
Cancer (?)
Smallpox (1796)
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In order to meet those challenges, we need to explore new
ways of thinking. Systems thinking is the cornerstone of
how adaptive organizations think about their world.
© 2 0 1 1 J OA N N A B E LTO W S K A A N D A M Y R A E .
P U T T I N G S Y S T E M S T H I N K I N G I N T O P R A C T I C E
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Designing a Systems Workshop
Tackling a huge problem? Systems analysis will help
elucidate multiple sides of the issue and identify areas of
opportunity. Workshops or brainstorms are great forums
for this type of analysis. Below is a (very) general overview
of a good workshop:
Study up: Learn your links, loops and archetypes. For
practice, sketch out systems diagrams of popular problems,
like Global Warming or Poverty.
Event Prep: Invite stakeholders from all levels of the
organization; Unique perspectives will make the analysis
more robust. Choose a room with a white board and bring
your markers!
Facilitation: In general, spend 1/4 of the time introducing
the concept and creating a safe space for open discussion.
Spend 1/2 of the time analyzing the problem on the white
board with the Systems Toolkit, and spend the remaining 1/4
looking for possible interventions in your diagram.
Darth suggests you use the “Five Whys” to help the group discover deeper interactions between elements.
“It’s like the old expression, ‘You are what you eat’.
If you start thinking differently, you see things differently.
And all your actions start to change.”
- Pat Walls, FedEx
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Are you ready to switch to a loops-based diet?
Special thanks to our mentors and friends at
Systems ThinkingLessons From The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook by Senge, Kleiker, Roberts, Ross and Smith
Presentation by
Joanna Beltowska @jbeltowskaAmy Rae @elucidateamy
© 2 0 1 1 J OA N N A B E LTO W S K A A N D A M Y R A E .
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