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2011. Synovate Ltd. All rights reserved.
The concepts and ideas submitted to you herein are the intellectual property ofSynovate Ltd. They are stric tly of confidential nature and are submitted to you underthe understanding that they are to be considered by you in the strictest of confidenceand that no use shall be made of the said concepts and ideas, includingcommunication to any third party without Synovates express prior consent and/orpayment of related professional services fees in full.
SPEC (Social, Political,
Economic and Cultural)
BarometerJuly 2011 Findings
Date: 20th July 2011
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Scope of the Study
The objectives of the study were as follows;
To establish the most pressing problem facing Kenyans nowcompared to 3 months ago.
To identify Kenyans views on the factors hindering theimplementation of The New Constitution.
To assess the Presidential candidate and Political Party of choice.
To understand what qualities Kenyans are looking for a Presidentialcandidate.
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Methodology
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Poll MethodologyPoll Methodology
Dates of pollingDates of polling June 30thJune 30th July 8th,July 8th, 20112011
Sample SizeSample Size 2000 respondents2000 respondents
Sampling methodologySampling methodology Random, MultiRandom, Multi--stage stratified using PPSstage stratified using PPS
UniverseUniverse Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in UrbanKenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urbanand Rural areasand Rural areas
Data collectionData collection
methodologymethodology
Sampling errorSampling error +/+/--2.2 with a 95% confidence level2.2 with a 95% confidence level
Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the
household level
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Most serious
problems facing
Kenya today
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Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)
In your opinion, what is the most serious problem
facing Kenya today? (by Total)
+33%
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Prices of key commodities
Commodity April 2011 July 2011
Maize flour (1 kg) Ksh 40 45 Kshs 67 80
Dry Maize (90 Kg bag) Ksh 2,000 2,600 Ksh 4,000 4,800
Sugar (1 kg) Ksh 94 98 Ksh 100 130
1 Litre Cooking Oil Ksh 100 130 Ksh 210 245
Fuel (1 litre petrol) Ksh 104 Ksh 115.39
Fuel (1 litre diesel) Ksh 94.53 Ksh 106.12
Kerosene (1 litre) Ksh 84.53 Ksh 86. 16
Milk Ksh 28 Ksh 28 32
Bread (500mg) Ksh 32 - 34 Ksh 38 40
1 $ Ksh 83.55 Ksh 89.50
Source: Local shops / retail supermarkets collected by Synovate
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Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)
Within the past 6 months, do you think the level of
corruption in Kenya has increased, decreased or stayed
the same. ..
(by total)
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86% 81% 51% 53% 56% 53%
Base: n=2000 (All respondents)
% indicating these institutions are
very committed/somewhat committed
How committed are the following institutions and/or
personalities in fighting corruption?
(By total)
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How committed are the following institutions and/or
personalities in fighting corruption?
(By total)
86% 81% 51% 53% 56% 53%
Base: n=2000 (All respondents)
26%
22%
12%
43%
11%9%
41%43%
42%
35%37%
33%
28%31%
38%
13%
45%
42%
5% 5%7%
8%6%
14%
1% 1% 1% 1%
Prime Minister President Vice President KAAC(Kenya AntiCorruption
Commission)
Parliament The AttorneyGeneral
Very committed Somewhat commited Not at all committed Don't know No response
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Challenges facing the
Implementation of the
New Constitution
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Only a few Bills have been signed into Law with
about a month to the 26th August 2011
deadline.
Crucial bills yet to be passed:
Political Parties Bill
Elections Bill
Devolved Government Bill
Citizenship Bill
Ethics and Anti-Corruption BillBudget and Finance Bill
National Police Service Commission Bill
Independent Policing and Oversight Authority Bill
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What is the main difficulty you foresee in implementing the
New Constitution? by Total
Base: n=2000 (All respondents)
Top 5 perceived difficulties
6%
6%
17%
20%
34%
Contentious issues
Lack of Citizens' awareness
Lack of cohesion
Corruption
Political interests / Lack of political will
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How would you rate the overall or general performance of the
coalition government over the last 3 months?
% who highly approve + somewhat approve
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Which political party do you feel closest to if any? by Total
Base: n=2000 (All respondents)
33%
23%
9%
3% 3%2% 2%
1% 1%
23%
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Which political party do you feel closest to if any? -Time
Series
43%41%
48%
38%
41%
33%
7% 8% 7%
2%
7%9%
21%22% 21%
18%
21%23%
1% 2%4%
2% 3% 3%4% 5%
3%
4%
13%
9%
22%
21%17%
36%
14%
23%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Mar 2010 Jul 2010 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jul 2011
ODM ODM Kenya PNU Narc Kenya Other None
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IfODM which group withinODM, do you support? by Total
Base: n=650 (Those saying ODM)
RailaGroup, 80%
RutoGroup, 18%
Not sure, 1%
Noresponse, 1%
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Constitutional Requirements on the Presidency
Article 137(1d) : The nomination processA person is qualified for nomination as a Presidential Candidate if
he or she is endorsed by not fewer than 2,000 voters from each ofa majority of the Counties ( in at least 24 Counties before beingendorsed by the electoral commission)
Article 138(4) : Declaration of winner
A candidate shall be declared President if the candidate receivesa) More than half(over 50%) of all votes cast in the election andb) At least 25% of the votes cast in each of more than half of the
Counties (47 Counties i.e. 24 Counties)
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Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were
held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a
candidate? by Total
Base: n=2000 (All respondents)
32%
21%
11% 11%
5%3%
2%1% 1%
6
%
7%
RailaOdinga
UhuruKenyatta
KalonzoMusyoka
WilliamRuto
MarthaKarua
EugeneWamalwa
PeterKenneth
MusaliaMudavadi
KennethMarende
Noresponse
Don't know
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36%
36%
48%
42%38%
32%
12%12% 12% 12%
13%11%
8% 8%
14% 14%
18%
21%
7%
11%10%
4%
8%
11%
6%5%
6%5%
6%5%
4%
1% 1%2%
3% 3%
11%14%
4%
16%
8%
13%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Mar 2010 Jul 2010 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jul 2011
Raila Odinga Kalonzo Musyoka Uhuru Kenyatta
Willam Ruto Martha Karua Eugene Wamalwa
Others None
Base: n=2000 (All respondents)
Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were
held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a
candidate? by Total
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Leadership Attribute Context
One who has good leadership skillsVisionary, responsible, principled, hardworking, courageous,impartial, authoritative, mature and builds unity amongKenyans [article 131 (1e); Symbol of unity ]
A person of integrity Not corrupt, transparent and trustworthy
An individual who is a reformist
Will bring about change in Kenya, is ready for change, willinitiate reforms, e.g. implementing the new constitutiondiverse opinions, has progressive ideas, will streamline thepolitical landscape
One who is mindful of Kenyans welfare
Helpful to people , cares about the peopleswelfare, addresses the issues pertaining the high cost ofliving, understands peoples problems, can defendscitizens, concerned with youth welfare and represent theirinterests
One who is development consciousHas good development ideas, good development record,meaning that he/she action oriented
Someone who is young Young, newer generation of politicians
Why would you vote for your preferred presidential
candidate? (top 5)
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Why would you vote for your preferred presidential
candidate?
Base: n=1,900 (those who name a candidate they would vote for )
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The target population for this survey was all Kenyan adults aged 18 and above (voting age). A sample
size of 2,000 respondents was drawn, using a 32:68 urban to rural ratio. The margin of error
attributed to sampling and other random effects of this polls sample size is +/- 2.2 % margin at 95%
confidence level. This sample size is large enough to make reliable estimates on the target population
opinion. The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 30th June - 8th July, 2011
To achieve this sample a randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to
size (PPS) was used. This ensures that districts with a higher population size had a proportionately
higher sample size allocation. This survey was conducted in 56 administrative and geographical
districts in Kenya
The interviews were done at household level. Household interviews were preferred because theyallow for pure random sampling ensuring full representation of the various demographics and also for
quality control.
POLLMETHODOLOGY
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These face-to-face in-home interviews are also preferred because they allowed for further probing as
respondents have more time to respond to questions as compared to street interviews.
The households were selected using the systematic random sampling procedure. In this case a random
starting point was selected within a cluster of households. From that point the interviewers mainly skipped 4
households until the sample size for that cluster in the district was achieved. One eligible respondent was
then selected from each qualifying household through a household member randomization technique known
as the Kish Grid. This was done to ensure that there was no bias related to household member selection. Incases where the eligible respondent was not available for interviewing, the field interviewers made at least 3
callbacks. If after the third callback the required respondent was still not available for the interview, the field
interviewer substituted that household for another.
The data collection involved the use of a semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed ended
questions. The poll questions were structured in a very open manner, with all possible options provided,including no opinion. This ensures that there is no bias at all with the way the questions are asked.
Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The fieldwork Supervisors made a minimum
of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers calls, while the field
managers made 2% back-checks. These back-checks were made within the same day of interviewing
Poll Methodology (Cont..)
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For further enquiries contact
Maggie IreriManaging DirectorSynovate Kenya
Tel:44
50190 -6
or
Victor Rateng
Project Manager, Opinion PollsSynovate KenyaTel: 4450190 - 6
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