1 Final Review
SUTRA: SUTRA: Sustainable Sustainable Urban TransportationUrban Transportation
Final Review Gdansk, Final Review Gdansk, June 23/24 2003June 23/24 2003DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, [email protected] http://www.ess.co.at
Environmental Software & Services A-2352 Gumpoldskirchen
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Presentation OverviewPresentation Overview
• Agenda and Schedule• SUTRA: an overview• Project Administration• Progress and Results• Outlook and Exploitation
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Agenda and ScheduleAgenda and ScheduleMorning session, 09:00-12:30
Introduction and framework
1 Introduction, overview ESS
2 Framework: indicators and scenarios FEEM
3 Framework: techno-economic modeling UGE
The tools 4 Transportation modeling PTV
5 AQ modeling: emission and models UAV
4 Final Review
Agenda and ScheduleAgenda and ScheduleAfternoon Session 14:00 - 17:00
Case Study Applications7 Case study overview UAV8 Success stories CoGAnalysis9 Assessment and economics TUG,FEEM10 Analysis and benchmarking MEI, ARPALUser Feedback11 User perspective: GenoaCity of Genoa12 User perspective: Gdansk City of Gdansk13 General discussion
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SUTRA ObjectivesSUTRA Objectivesto develop a consistent and comprehensive
approach and planning methodology for the analysis of urban transportation problems to design strategies for sustainable cities.
This includes the integration of:– socio-economic – environmental and – technological concepts – multi-criteria assessment – policy level decision support.
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SUTRA methodology:SUTRA methodology:1. Indicator based approach2. Scenario analysis3. Simulation modeling, linking
– Techno-economic model– Transportation model– Emission model– Air quality models (street canyon, city level,
regional)4. Multi-criteria assessment:
– Economics, environment, public health
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SUTRA methodology:SUTRA methodology:In other words:
SUTRA builds a MODEL SYSTEM that processes a SCENARIO of urban transportation into a set of POLICY LEVEL INDICATORS – but with all the underlying technical detail in a consistent and quantitative manner.
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SUTRA: project factsSUTRA: project facts• Duration: July 2000 – June 2003,
36 months after contract amendment• Partners: 11 (originally 12) from 10
countries incl. Argentina (UBG)• Project web server:
http://www.ess.co.at/SUTRA/
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SUTRA: project factsSUTRA: project facts
• 13 major meetings of more than 2 partners incl. 7 full Board meetings
• 33 (of 35) Deliverables with a total of more than 1,500 pages or 15 kg)
• eMail list: > 3,000 mail messages• 127 data sets (of multiple files) in the
document tracking system• > 400 MB of data and documents on-
line at the project web server.
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Final Review
SUTRA: project statusSUTRA: project status
WE ARE DONE …….–Final Report, final version–Final Cost Statements–Deliverable updates–Exploitation (continuing)
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Final Review
SUTRA: achievementsSUTRA: achievements• Methodology development• Tool integration, model cascade
(7 incl. fuzzy logic expert system)
• Case studies (6 out of 7)• Assessment economics, air quality, public health
• Analysis, benchmarking• Reporting• Exploitation: on-line results, data
bases and analysis tools
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Final Review
SUTRA: achievementsSUTRA: achievementsExploitation: • on-line results and reports• City data base with 70+ European
cities 40+ indicators, on-line benchmarking tool
• SUTRA cities: all indicators and scenario results
• SUTRA cities: on-line city level air quality modeling, population exposure
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SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsStep 1:• A framework of (79) indicators
that define a common language, interface between the models, and the basic results for policy-level DSS
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SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsDRIVING FORCES (10)
• Demography (3)• Land Use (3)• Economy (4)
PRESSURES (26)• Transportation Demand (3)• Fossil Fuel Consumption (3)• Pollutant Emissions (20)
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SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsSTATE (23)
• Air Quality (21)• Stress Indicators (2)
IMPACTS (14)• Economic Costs (4)• Health Impacts (5)• Accidents (3)• Time Loss (2)
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SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: Results
RESPONSES (6)• Car Occupancy (2)• Public Transport Share (1)• New Technology Penetration (3)
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SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsStep 2: Modeling tools1. MARKAL techno-economic energy
model2. VISUM transportation model3. TREM emission model4. VADIS street canyon model5. AirWare city-level air quality model6. OFIS regional ozone model7. Assessment tools: population
exposure, public health, economics
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SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsStep 3: Common ScenariosDefined as relative change
from the baselineDefined in terms of:Demographic, economic,
technological, land use indicators
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SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsStep 3: Common Scenarios1. Baseline (2000)2. Dynamic, young, virtuous3. Dynamic, young, vicious4. Stagnating, old, virtuous5. Stagnating, old, vicious
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SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsCommon scenarios:
SC1 SC2 SC3 SC4
Demographic Changes + + - -Economic Structural Changes + + - -Technological Changes + - + -Land Use Changes + - + -
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SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsStep 4: City Case Studies
1.Buenos Aires2.Gdansk3.Geneva4.Genoa5.Lisbon6.Tel Aviv 7.Thessaloniki
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SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: Resultsbaseline - private transport
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Period
veh.
km.d
ay-1
TLE1THE1TESTEMTEH1TEE3CGTEE2CG
TEE1CGTEE1CDTE8T39T2B
baseline - public transport
0
20
40
60
80
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Period
veh.
km.d
ay-1
TT1
TS1
TC1
TB1
TAM2
TA1
T4G
MARKAL:energy/techno-economicoptimisation
• Technology mix,• Energy consumption, • Costs
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SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsVISUM:Transportation modeling
Translates O/D matrix intoTrips, vehicle frequency, speeds, ……
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SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsTREM:Emission model
Translates fleet compositionAnd vehicle frequencies, speed, cold starts, into emissions of:CO, SO2,NOx, PM10
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SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsVADIS:Street canyon model
Translates emissions and meteorology, building structure into ambient air quality (dynamic, 24 hrs)
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SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsAirWare:City level AQ model
Translates emissions And meteorology into a city-wideambient air pollution estimate (1, 24 hrs,seasonal, yearly average)
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SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsOFIS:
regional ozone Model
Emissions (NOx, VOC) and long-term meteorology
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SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsStep 5:Assessment Population exposure• Public health• Economic assessment
BASE C1 C2 C3 C4 S1 S2 S3 S4MORTALITY [number of
dephs/year] 15365 30978 15365 15365 15365 30978 15365 15365 15364,74MORBIDITY [number of days lost in a year, per
capita] 0,186 0,23 0,1857 0,1857 0,1857 0,23 0,1857 0,186 0,185747
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Final Review
SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsMulti-criteriaanalysis:
Discrete referencepoint approach, interactive selection of criteria (indicators)and constraints.
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SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsBenchmarking
70+ cities merged from several data bases, 40+ indicators
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SUTRA: OutlookSUTRA: OutlookEXPLOITATION:• On-line results, data bases and
tools as dissemination and marketing instrument (ASP basis in ongoing eContent project Env-e-City)
• Approaching new cities (INTERREG, ASIA-URBS, UNEP, WHO, … direct marketing)
• SUTRA – the book
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Final Review
Agenda and ScheduleAgenda and ScheduleMorning session, 09:00-12:30
Introduction and framework
1 Introduction, overview ESS
2 Framework: indicators and scenarios FEEM 3 Framework: techno-economic modeling UGE
The tools 4 Transportation modeling PTV
5 AQ modeling: emission and models UAV
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