Supply and Demand by Main Market Area
Domestic production, trade and consumption in the United Kingdom, European Community, Japan and United States. Domestic production is divided into the main stages where relevant. The source of net imports (i.e. imports from third countries) are shown, and also dependence on external supplies. The data are mainly averages for 1985 and 1986. The geographical sources of net imports are given as percentages of the total separately for all four groupings. Shares of world consumption and the historic growth of consumption are also included. For most metals the main additional sources to those used for the earlier tables are the relevant trade statistics.
The geographical coverage of the European Community has changed frequently. In this Handbook it is the Europe of the Ten (i.e. the present Community excluding Spain and Portugal) which was the coverage for most of the statistics included. Greenland is no longer included in the Community, but its production (of lead and zinc) is now shown separately.
Acknowledgements
The compiler gratefully acknowledges indebtedness to the statistical publications of the US Bureau of Mines, The World Bureau of Metal Statistics, Metallgesellschaft, and the British Geological Survey in particular. Many other sources, listed at the end of the report, have also been used. The price data are derived mainly from the Metal Bulletin, Metals Week, Industrial Minerals and the Engineering and Mining Journal. Any mistaken interpretations, errors or omissions, are the compiler's sole responsibility. A considerable proportion of the data was put together by Julie Markey, without whom the book would never have been produced, and she deserves full credit for this. Thanks are also due to Nobushige Kondo and his staff in Tokyo.
n/a Not available c. approximately
Under 1
Independent rounding means that percentages may not add up to 100 throughout the publication.
4
TABLE 1
PRODUCTION AND RESERVES BY MAIN GEO-POLITICAL GROUPING
% Share in World Reserves Primary Production 1985-86
Developed Developing Centrally Deve 1 oped Deve 1 oping Centrally Planned Planned
Bauxite 26 70 4 45 43 12 Aluminium 63 16 21 Antimony 16 24 60 28 33 40 Arsenic (a) n/a n/a n/a 49 36 15 Asbestos 45 12 43 24 10 66 Barytes 26 42 32 32 35 33 Beryllium 14 70 16 65 13 22 Bismuth 65 27 8 46 44 10 Boron 65 9 26 92 3 5 Cadmium (a) 62 27 11 65 13 22 Chromium 80 6 13 47 17 36 Cobalt 4 64 32 14 69 17 Copper 29 60 11 32 45 23 Fluorspar 34 21 45 28 26 46 Gold 72 12 16 59 20 22 Industrial
Diamonds 58 33 9 33 51 16 Iron Ore 34 27 39 31 32 37 Lead 68 12 20 50 20 29 Lithium 33 {b) 67 {b) n/a 57 18 25 Magnesite 8 18 74 39 6 55 Manganese 47 16 37 27 34 39 Mercury 78 7 15 36 18 47 Molybdenum 57 26 17 59 26 15 Nickel 32 19 48 40 30 30 Niobium 3 81 16 15 {b) 85 {b) n/a Phosphate 29 57 14 34 37 29 Platinum
Group 81 19 51 49 Potash 55 1 44 47 6 47 Rare Earths 14 5 81 59 19 22 Rhenium 44 48 8 29 51 20 Selenium 34 57 10 n/a n/a n/a Silicon n/a n/a n/a 77 6 18 Silver 41 37 22 36 43 22 Sulphur 32 28 40 54 11 35 Tantalum 26 57 17 n/a n/a n/a Tellurium (a) 28 61 11 95 {b) 5 {b) n/a Tin 13 81 6 9 70 21
5
Titanium: Ilmenite Rutile
Tungsten Vanadium Vermiculite Zinc Zirconium
% Share in World Reserves
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
65 17 18 16 81 3 35 9 56 25 1 74 n/a n/a n/a 60 26 14 69 16 15
(a) Production at refineries. (b) Western World only.
6
Primary Production 1985-86
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
77 14 9
23 17 60 56 44 95 (b) 5 (b) n/a 54 22 25 83 5 12
Bauxite Antimony Arsenic Asbestos Barytes Beryllium Bismuth Boron Cadmium Chromium Cobalt (land only) Copper (land only) Fluorspar Gallium Germanium Gold
Indium Industrial Diamonds
Iron Ore Lead Lithium Magnesium
Manganese (land only) Mercury
Molybdenum Nickel (land only) Niobium Phosphate Platinum Group Potash Rare Earths Rhenium Selenium Silicon Silver
Sulphur Tantalum Tellurium Tin
TABLE 2
THE 'ADEQUACY' OF RESERVES
Static Reserve Life (years)
237 77 23 24 31
very large 21
330 29 99 99 40 57
very large large
25
22 22
132 28
very large very large
106 19
58 67
over 250 very large
125 over 300
very large 143
very large extremely large
18
24 over 100
large 17
7
Ratio of Identified Reserves to
Cumulative Primary Demand 1987-2000
13 3.9 2.5 1.2 1.5
very large 1.5
20 2
21 8.6 2.6 2.6
very large large
2.5 (excludes above ground stocks)
1 under 1
(excluding synthetics) 9 2.4
n/a 30
(excluding brines and sea) 8 1.3
(excludes secondary stocks) 2.9 3.5
12 5
10 19 60 35 3.7
extremely large 2.1
(excludes secondary stocks) 1.2 1.4 5 1
Titanium Tungsten Uranium Vanadium Vermiculite Zinc Zirconium
Static Reserve Life (years)
87 63 64
135 87 25 49
8
Ratio of Identified Reserves to
Cumulative Primary Demand 1987-2000
5.9 3.5 3.2 8 6 1.6 3.5
TABLE 3
THE GROWTH OF WORLD RESERVES OF SELECTED PRODUCTS
This table shows how estimates of world reserves of four major base metals increased over a thirty year period relative to the rate of growth of world mine production. Figures for these metals are more readily available than for many others, but in most respects the pattern shown is typical; estimated reserves grew at least as fast as production until the 1980s.
(million tonnes contained metal near the end of the relevant decade)
Copper Lead Zinc Aluminium (a)
1940s 91 31 to 45 54 to 70 1,605 1950s 124 45 to 54 77 to 86 3,224 1960s 280 86 106 11,600 1970s 543 157 240 22,700 1980s First half (b) 500 135 300 22,335
% p.a. growth 1950s-1970s 7.5 5 to 5.75 4.75 to 5.25 9.75
% p.a. growth of mine production 1950s-1970s 3.75 1. 75 2.75 7
(a) gross weight of bauxite {b) reserve base in 1985
In the first half of the 1980s a decline in prices relative to costs led to reductions in reserves, as hitherto economic ore bodies became uneconomic.
9
TABLE 4
VALUE OF CONTAINED METAL IN ANNUAL PRODUCTION
mi 11 ion US $
Aluminium 24,300 Antimony 126 Arsenic 55 (as trioxide) Asbestos 1,575 Barytes 400 Beryllium 235 Bismuth 33 Boron 610 Cadmium 81 (refined metal) Chromium 460 Cobalt 380 (refined meta 1) Copper 17,300 (refined metal) Fluorspar 600 Gallium 21 Germanium 85 Gold 21,000 Indium 18 Industrial Diamonds 100 Iron Ore 17,000 Lead 3,300 (refined metal) Lithium 150 Magnesite 2,775 Magnesium metal 1,082 Manganese 1,100 (metal content) Mercury 63 Molybdenum 600 Nickel 3,700 (refined meta 1) Niobium 89 (Western world) Phosphate 5,400 Platinum Group 2,750 Potash 1,200 Rare Earths n/a Rhenium 18 Selenium 17 (refined metal, western world) Silicon 4,000 Silver 3,000 Sulphur 7,100 Tantalum 40 Tellurium 7 (refined metal, western world) Tin 1,350 (refined metal) Titanium 330 Tungsten 207 Uranium 2,300 Vanadium 450 Vermiculite 67 (Western world) Zinc 6,500 (refined metal) Zirconium 133
10
TABLE 5
IMPORT DEPENDENCE 1985-86 IN PERCENTAGES Imports as a percentage of domestic consumption plus exports
Aluminium (inc. bauxite and alumina)
Antimony (a) Arsenic Asbestos Barytes Beryll i urn Bismuth Boron Cadmium (refined) Chromium Cobalt (a) Copper Fluorspar Gallium Germanium (refined) Indium Iron Ore Lead Lithium Magnesium Metal Manganese Mercury Molybdenum Nickel Niobium Phosphate Platinum Group (a) Potash Rare Earths Rhenium Selenium Silicon Silver Sulphur Tantalum Tellurium Tin Titanium Tungsten Uranium Vanadium Vermiculite Zinc Zirconium
United European Kingdom Community
89 100 100 100
52 100 100 100 65
100 100
91 11
n/a 100 n/a 100
53 100
91 100 100 (a) 100 100 100 100 100 47
100 100 100 100 84 86
100 n/a
50 100 100 (a) 100 100 100
77 100
80 97
n/a 55 19
100 79
100 27 91
100 82 32
n/a 25
n/a 94 44
100 50 99
n/a 100 88
100 97
100 25
100 100 100 44 53 21
100 n/a 86
100 89 (a) 75
100 100
62 100
(a) Before allowing for secondary recovery.
Japan
77 98
n/a 100
47 100
100
99 100
91 100 n/a
22 25
100 61
100 37 99 7
100 100 100 100
98 n/a 100 100 100 100
21
100 5
95 100
53 (a) 100 100
61 100
United States
73 98 84 67 85 19 76 8
58 76
100 22 86
n/a n/a
23 17
4 100 n/a
83 100
100 28 15 19 55 58
100 15 87
under 22 72 86 63
n/a 36 10 57 37
In calculating these ratios no allowance has generally been made for changes in stocks.
11
TABLE 6
THE HISTORIC GROWTH OF TOTAL MINE PRODUCTION
% p.a. average compound growth rates 1969 to 1979
Aluminium (bauxite) Antimony Arsenic Asbestos Barytes Beryllium Bismuth Boron Cadmium Chromium Cobalt Copper Fluorspar Gallium Germanium Gold Indium Industrial Diamonds
(including synthetics) Iron Ore Lead Lithium Magnesium (all forms) Manganese Mercury Molybdenum Nickel Niobium Phosphate Platinum Group Potash Rare Earths Rhenium Selenium Silicon Silver Sulphur Tantalum Tellurium Tin Titanium Tungsten Uranium Vanadium Vermiculite Zinc Zirconium
12
5.4 0.7
-4.5 3.4 5.7
c. -4.3 c. 2
4.8 2.0 5.9 3.6 3.0 2.3
20 2.9
-2.0 -1.5
6.8 2.3 0.8 5.3 approx. 0.2 1.3
-4.0 3.4 3.8 4.6 4.9 6.8 4.2 3.8
11.1 2.9 5.8 1.5 3.8 0.3 3.0 1.1 1.5 3.3 8.0 8.0 2.7 1.2 3.2 (exc. USA)
TABLE 7
COMPARATIVE GROWTH RATES OF CONSUMPTION IN THE 1970s % p.a. average compound rates 1969/70 to 1979/80 in most cases
Aluminium (inc. secondary) Antimony (primary) Arsenic Asbestos Barytes Beryllium Bismuth Boron Cadmium Chromium Cobalt Copper Fluorspar Gallium Germanium Gold (industrial uses) Indium Industrial Diamonds
(inc. synthetics) Iron Ore Lead Lithium Magnesium Metal Manganese Ore Manganese Ferro Mercury Molybdenum Nickel Niobium Phosphate P 1 at i num Gr·oup Potash Rare Earths Rhenium Selenium Silicon Silver (industrial uses) Sulphur Tantalum Tellurium Tin Titanium Tungsten Uranium (civil usage) Vanadium Vermiculite Zinc Zirconium
United Kingdom
-1.6 -7.5 n/a -2.8 6.8
n/a n/a n/a -0.2 -4.8 -0.5 -1.9 0.2
n/a n/a 0.2
n/a
n/a -2.2 -0.6 n/a -0.5 -2.7 -4.7 9.7 (a) -3.5 -0.3 -5.0 0.6
n/a -0.7 n/a n/a 2.6
-2.0 -0.7 -0.7 n/a n/a -4.9 -1.3 -8.3 n/a -3.0 n/a -3.0 -1.7
European Community
4.1 n/a n/a 1.1
-0.6 n/a n/a n/a 1.4 6.5 0.2 1.6
-0.4 n/a n/a -1.0 n/a
n/a -0.1 0.2
n/a -2.0 -0.2 0.5
n/a 2.3 3.4
5 to 8 1.7
n/a 1.5
n/a n/a n/a n/a -1.9 0.7
n/a n/a -1.7
-6.0 14.3 n/a n/a 0.8 4.2
Japan
7.3 -6.9 n/a 1.9 0.4
n/a n/a 1.2
-3.8 4.1 0.7 5.0
-0.5 n/a 2.1 2.2
n/a
13.9 7.0 3.4
11.7 8.5 1.5 2.1
-11.5 4.4 4.3
12.1 {b) 0.8
10.1 1.0
n/a n/a 1.0 5.8 3.9
-1.4 13.6 (c) n/a 1.9 4.3
-4.9 25.3 8.7
n/a 2.2 8.4
(a) Primary only. (b) Ferroniobium only.
13
(c) Powder only.
United States
3.2 -3.2 -2.4 -3.9 8.9
-1.7 -0.6 3.6
-2.1 0.5
0.6 -2.5 21.4 4.0
-2.6 1.7
7.4 -1.9 0.6 5.2 2.8
-6.0 -1.6 -1.4 3.1 1.8 4.1 4.3 6.3 4.5 5.2 7.2
-5.0 2.4 0.8 3.4 1.8 1.2
-1.6 1.5 1.6
10.6 -0.3 1.9
-2.4 0.2
TABLE 8
COMPARATIVE GROWTH RATES OF CONSUMPTION IN FIRST HALF OF THE 1980s % p.a. average compound growth rates 1979/80 to 1985/86
United European Japan United Kingdom Community States
Aluminium (inc. secondary) -2.1 1.0 2.0 -0.4 Antimony (primary) 0.5 3.9 -8.4 -0.4 Arsenic n/a n/a n/a 2.1 Asbestos 18.0 -14.8 -6.0 -17.9 Barytes 2.9 -1.6 -0.6 -11.1 Beryllium n/a n/a n/a -1.7 Bismuth n/a -6.5 3.4 4.1 Boron n/a n/a n/a -2.1 Cadmium 0.7 -1.1 8.5 -0.1 Chromium 4.3 -6.5 -0.6 -9.9 Cobalt -12.8 n/a -5.0 -1.0 Copper -4.6 -0.8 -1.3 0.2 Fluorspar 1.4 0.2 5.1 -9.2 Gallium n/a n/a n/a 2.7 Germanium n/a n/a n/a 2.9 Gold (industrial uses)(a) 5.4 7.0 14.1 2.8 Indium n/a n/a 12.5 2.6 Industrial Diamonds
(inc. synthetics) n/a n/a 12.8 12.4 Iron Ore -1.2 -3.2 -1.8 -8.2 Lead -2.0 -1.1 0.6 Lithium n/a n/a 6.7 -2.4 Magnesium metal -0.7 -0.6 -0.9 -1.8 Manganese ore -1.5 -4.8 -5.8 -11.9 Manganese ferro -2.2 -6.2 -1.4 -11.6 Mercury n/a n/a -2.8 -4.1 Molybdenum -5.6 -2.1 -1.4 -9.9 Nickel -1.7 0.6 -3.2 Niobium -5.0 3.0 8.0 -0.8 Phosphate -8.5 -3.8 -3.1 -1.6 Platinum Group n/a n/a 5.8 2.8 Potash 3.9 0.4 -3.3 -4.4 Rare Earths n/a n/a n/a -6.9 Rhenium n/a n/a n/a 10.0 Selenium 5.5 n/a 7.7 6.5 Silicon -0.8 -0.1 -9.8 -5.2 Silver (industrial uses) -2.8 -1.3 4.3 0.4 Sulphur -5.7 -2.0 -0.9 -1.4 Tanta 1 urn n/a n/a 6.9 -6.6 Tellurium n/a n/a n/a n/a Tin (inc. secondary) -3.1 -0.7 0.3 -4.2 Titanium (pigments) 3.8 n/a 5.5 3.7 Tungsten -14.3 -2.6 -4.7 -10.4 Vanadium n/a n/a 0.2 -5.7 Vermiculite n/a n/a n/a -0.3 Zinc -2.0 -0.6 1.4 Zirconium n/a n/a n/a 2.0
(a) Growth rate for 1980-1986.
14
Antimony Asbestos
Beryllium Cadmi urn Chromium Cobalt Copper Fluorspar Gold Industrial Iron Ore Lead Magnesite Manganese Nickel Phosphate
TABLE 9
SOUTH AFRICAN SHARES OF WORLD RESERVES AND PRODUCTION (percentages)
Reserves Primary Production 1985-86 Averages
6 13 6 3 (but 100% of
amosite and crocidolite)
4 6 (a)
78 36 1 1 2
18 7 59 41
Diamonds 7 13 4 3 4 3
n/a 40 17 5 4
19 2 Platinum Group 80 46 Silicon n/a Silver Sulphur n/a Tin 1 Titanium:
Ilmenite 19 ) Rut i 1 e 5 )
Uranium 15 (b) Vanadium 20 Vermiculite n/a Zinc 7 Zirconium 15
(a) No details available on mine output by country. (b) Western world only.
15
3 (metal and ferro) 2 1 1
11
13 (b) 47 37 1
20
ALUMINIUM/BAUXITE/ALUMINA
WORLD RESERVES OF BAUXITE (million tonnes and% of total)
Developed Developing
Australia 4440 ( 21.2) Brazi 1 Greece 600 (2.9) Cameroon Yugoslavia 350 (1. 7) Ghana Other (inc. Guinea France & Guyana USA) 105 (0.5) India
Indonesia Jamaica Sierra Leone Surinam Venezuela Others -----
Totals 5495 (26.2)
Grand Total 20954
2250 (10.7) 680 (3.2) 450 (2.1)
5600 (26.7) 700 (3.3)
1000 (4.8) 750 (3.6)
2000 (9.5) 140 (0. 7) 575 (2.7) 235 ( 1.1)
__]JJ_ ~)
14659 (70.0)
Centrally Planned
China 150 (0.7) Hungary 300 (1. 4) Romania 50 (0.2) USSR 300 (1. 4)
---800 (3.8)
The bauxite reserve base is estimated at 23,200 million tonnes, and total world resources are estimated at 55 to 75,000 million tonnes.
Based on existing recovery techniques, the recoverable aluminium content of the world's bauxite reserves is 1 billion tonnes for developed countries, and 3 billion for the developing. Including centrally planned economies the total recoverable aluminium content of world reserves is 4,250 million tonnes.
Total world resources of bauxite (reserves plus sub-economic and undiscovered deposits) are calculated at 8,000 million tonnes of recoverable aluminium, on the basis of present recovery techniques. (The USSR also produces aluminium from alunite and nepheline syenite so that the table under-estimates the USSR's available deposits of aluminium containing minerals).
16
Aluminium/Bauxite/Alumina
BAUXITE: WORLD MINE PRODUCTION ('000 tonnes and% of total 1985/86 Averages)
Developed
Australia France Greece Turkey USA Yugoslavia Others
Totals Grand Total
32136 (36.3) 1455 ( 1.6) 2330 (2.6)
253 (0.3) 5g2 (0. 7)
3490 (4.0) 3 ( .. )
40259 (45.5)
Developing
Brazil Ghana Guinea Guyana India Indonesia Jamaica Malaysia Sierra Leone Surinam Zimbabwe Others
88462
6146 (6.9) 187 (0.2)
14306 (16.2) 2114 (2.4) 2303 (2.6) 741 (0.8)
6602 ( 7.5) 529 (0.6)
1213 (1.4) 3735 (4.2)
30 ( •• ) __ 7 _ld
37913 (42.9)
Centrally Planned
China Hungary Romania USSR
2150 (2.4) 2920 (3.3) 480 (0.5)
4740 (5.4)
10290 (11.6)
Note: The USSR's production of nepheline syenite and alunite were equivalent to roughly 1.6 million tonnes of bauxite.
ALUMINA: WORLD REFINERY PRODUCTION ('000 tonnes and% of total 1985/86 Averages)
Developed
Australia Canada France W Germany Greece Ireland Italy Japan Spain Turkey UK USA Yugoslavia Totals Grand Total
9108 (26.5) 1017 (3.0) 881 (2 .6)
1609 ( 4. 7) 430 (1.3) 621 (1.8) 587 (1.7)
1146 (3.3) 739 (2. 2) 128 (0.4) 108 (0.3)
3523 (10.3) 1128 ___ild)
21025 (61.2)
Developing
Brazi 1 Guinea India Jamaica Surinam Venezuela
34363
Figures refer to alumina hydrate.
1147 (3.3) 569 (1. 7) 579 (1. 7)
1604 (4.7) 1356 (3.9) 1202 (3.5)
6457 (18.8)
Centrally Planned
China 975 (2.8) Czecho-s 1 ovak i a 73 (0.2) E Germany 47 (0.1) Hungary 812 (2.4) Romania 549 (1.6) USSR 4425 (12.9)
6881 (20.0)
Approximately 2.364 million tonnes of alumina production was used for nonmetallic purposes in Western countries.
17
Aluminium/Bauxite/Alumina
PRIMARY ALUMINIUM PRODUCTION ('000 tonnes and% of total 1985/86 Averages)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Australia 863.4 (5.6) Argentina 145.3 (0.9) China 453 (2.9) Austria 93.3 (0.6) Bahrain 176.5 (1.1) Czecho-Canada 1318.8 (8.5) Brazi 1 653.4 (4.2) slovakia 32 (0.2) France 307.5 (2.0) Cameroon 81.4 (0.5) E Germany 60 (0.4) W Germany 754.5 (4.9) Egypt 177.7 ( 1.1) Hungary 74 (0.5) Greece 123.9 (0.8) Ghana 86.6 (0.6) N Korea 10 (0.1) Iceland 78.0 (0.5) India 261.8 (1. 7) Poland 47 (0.3) Italy 233.4 ( 1. 5) Indonesia 217.8 (1.4) Romania 263 (1. 7) Japan 183.5 ( 1. 2) Iran 41.5 (0.3) USSR 2325 (15.0) Netherlds 251.3 (1.6) S Korea 17.4 (0.1) N Zealand 239.9 (1. 5) Mexico 39.9 (0.3) Norway 726.6 ( 4. 7) Surinam 28.8 (0.2) S Africa 167.1 ( 1.1) UAE 154.0 (1.0) Spain 362.4 (2.3) Venezuela 413.1 (2. 7) Sweden 80.4 (0.5) Switzerld 76.6 (0.5) Turkey 57.0 (0.4) UK 275.8 (1.8) USA 3268.1 (21.0) Yugoslavia 314.7 _jb.Q) ----Totals 9776.2 (62.9) 2495.2 (16.1) 3264 (21.0)
Grand Total 15535.4
18
Aluminium/Bauxite/Alumina
MINE 2 SMELTER & REFINERY CAPACITIES 2 1986 ('000 tonnes)
Bauxite Alumina Aluminium
Developed Australia 38800 9230 1028 Canada 1225 1582 France 1440 1070 327 W Germany 1240 735 Greece 4710 600 150 Italy 720 229 Japan 1915 64 Norway 856 New Zea 1 and 244 Turkey 600 200 60 USA 1800 4700 3896 Yugoslavia 4650 1320 322 Others 1720 1425
Total 52000 23940 10918
Developing
Brazil 7600 1200 873 Ghana 400 200 Guinea 14500 700 Guyana 4200 350 India 5205 1110 473 Indonesia 1300 225 Jamaica 10400 3110 Sierra Leone 1150 Surinam 4500 1200 30 Venezuela 1000 1400 450 Other Africa 257 Other Asia 1000 403 Other Latin America 225
Total 51255 9070 3136
Centrall~ Planned China 3250 1245 618 Hungary 3760 805 73 USSR 11600 4600 3205 Others 750 1005 538
Total 19360 7655 4434
TOTAL 122615 40665* 18488
* Metallurgical capacity = 36745
19
Aluminium/Bauxite/Alumina
ALUMINIUM RECOVERED FROM SCRAP: WESTERN COUNTRIES ( 1000 tonnes 1985/86 Averages)
European Community Japan United States Other Countries Total
RESERVE PRODUCTION RATIOS FOR BAUXITE
Static reserve life (years) Ratio of reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000
CONSUMPTION OF PRIMARY ALUMINIUM
1 000 tonnes
1174 867
1768 583
4392
237
13 : 1
Growth rate % 1985/86 Averages 1960-70 1970-80
European Community 3117 7.5 4.2 Japan 1660 20.7 7.1 USA 4275 7.8 2.8 Others 3623 4.7 7.5 Total Western world 12675 9.3 4.6 Total world 16188 9.2 4.7
END USE PATTERNS 1986 %
Bauxite/Alumina (USA)
Aluminium metal : 90 Refractories, chemicals, abrasives and other products: 10
Aluminium Packaging Building Transport Electrical Consumer Durables Others (inc. exports of semis)
Sources: Metallgesellschaft and USBM
USA 29 22 21 10 7
11
20
Japan W Europe 7 7
27 12 29 19 6 6 5 4
26 52
p.a. 1980-86
1.4 -0.2 -0.7 4.0 1.1 1.2
Aluminium/Bauxite/Alumina
VALUE OF CONTAINED METAL IN ANNUAL PRODUCTION
$24.3 billion (primary metal) at 1987 average LME price.
SUBSTITUTES
Bauxite/Alumina
Calcined clay can be substituted for refractory bauxite but only with reduction in length of life and in shock resistance. Sillimanite-alumina, silicon carbide, magnesite-chromite and carbon-magnesite refractories are alternatives for high-alumina material but at higher cost. Silicon carbide and diamonds can substitute for fused aluminium oxide in abrasive use but again at higher cost.
Aluminium
Plastics and steel compete for many applications, notably for machinery, household appliances, and with glass and paper, for the container market. Magnesium, titanium and composites compete in the transport and structural industry whilst wood is becoming increasingly important in the construction industry. Copper can be used in many applications.
Potential for substitutes often limited by relative weight (steel) or cost (titanium, magnesium).
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Bauxite/Alumina
Development continuing on alternative raw materials including coal wastes, anthracite, clay and shale. Political considerations likely to be more important.
Possible development of other refractories, using nitrides and borides of titanium and zirconium.
Chemical use may be limited by development of chemicals or processes for recycling water.
Aluminium
Energy costs are a significant constraint on production in industrial countries. Advances in methods of alumina reduction should help keep aluminium competitive.
Development of composites and new alloys could reduce use in transport applications.
Changes in packaging processes could encourage use of aluminium food can.
21
Aluminium/Bauxite/Alumina
PRICES
Bauxite and Alumina
Historically bauxite and alumina moved within integrated producers with pricing largely a book-keeping exercise. The diminishing importance of the integrated company and fundamental changes in the economic environment have resulted in more material moving under long term supply contracts. National bauxite levies and freight charges are major components of price. Spot purchases became more common in the alumina market in the mid-1980s mainly because oversupply.
Aluminium
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
cents/lb
World producer (Alcan export price) 79.5 79.5 79.5*
US dealer range 42.7-53 48-80 47.5-78 44.5-52.5 52.0-65.0 52.0-90
LME cash - average 45 65.3 56.5 47.9 52.2 70.95
Real 1987 price (LME) 46.2 66.3 56.1 47.4 53.6 70.95
£/tonne
LME cash 523.0- 684.0- 803.74- 660.1- 721.5- 758.75-Monthly average range 609.8 1079.8 1099.7 1004.6 887.5 1309.5
* Discontinued October 1984
Prior to the late 1970s, pricing was dominated by long term producer contracts. The introduction of terminal markets (LME in 1979, Comex in 1983), plus structural changes in the market, mean that pricing is now far less rigid. Today, a combination of flexible producer contracts and a dealer-controlled spot market exists. Producer contracts are short to medium term for fixed tonnages but with frequent price negotiations, linked to terminal market prices. Energy costs exert a strong influence on price.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
Bauxite and Alumina
A large proportion of sales are still within integrated producers, or through shared production arrangements, although there is an increasing trend towards independent smelters. The International Bauxite Association (IBA) has Jamaica, Guyana, Indonesia, Surinam, Ghana, Guinea, Sierra Leone,
22
Aluminium/Bauxite/Alumina
India, Yugoslavia and Australia as members. The IBA pools price and market information with the objective of 'fair and reasonable returns', although the search for minimum price arrangements has so far been unsuccessful.
Aluminium
Substantial vertical integration from mine to fabricated product was a feature of the industry since the turn of the century with six companies and their associates dominating the stage: Alcan, Alcoa, Alusuisse, Kaiser, Reynolds and Pechiney. The oligopolistic nature of the industry has gradually been broken down since the early 1970s by the rise of independent smelters in energy rich nations of the Third World and Oceania. The difficult economic conditions of the early 1980s have aided the process. Many of the large integrated concerns have now divested themselves of unprofitable subsidiaries although the 'big 6' still own some 40% of Western world primary aluminium capacity; through control over technology, their effective hold on the industry is even higher.
23
Aluminium/Bauxite/Alumina
AWMINIUM LME cash average
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
110
90
80
70
60~------~------~~------~-------r------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
24
Aluminium/Bauxite/Alumina
SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR BAUXITE BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes) 3785 592
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes) 264 7477 2913 6807
Source of Net Imports (%)
Australia 3 29 61 10 Brazil 33 3 5 China 2 3 2 European Community 6 Ghana 52 2 Guinea 47 52 Guyana 3 1 3 Indonesia 24 Jamaica 27 Malaysia 11 Sierra Leone 10 Surinam 1 2 Others 4 3 1 1
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes) 945 0.4 63
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes) 264 10317 2913 7554
(apparent) (apparent) (apparent)
Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption 100 72 100 90 Imports as % of
consumption and net exports 100 66 100 89
Share of World Consumption (%)
Total world 12 3 9
Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s -1.1 6 6.6
25
Aluminium/Bauxite/Alumina
SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR ALUMINA BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC(lO) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) 108 4235 1146 3523
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ( '000 tonnes) 555 1356 53 3718
Source of Net Imports (%)
Australia 23 76 82 Canada 1 European Community 55 3 USA 21 Guinea 21 Jamaica 41 32 7 Surinam 22 7 Venezuela 2 1 Others 2 2 2
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) 8 725 328 402
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) 655 4866 870 6839
(apparent) (apparent) (apparent) (apparent)
Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption 85 28 6 54 Imports as % of
consumption and net exports 84 24 4 51
Share of World Consumption (%) Total world 2 14 3 20
Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s -1.1 6 6.4
26
Aluminium/Bauxite/Alumina
SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR ALUMINIUM METAL BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC{10) Japan USA
Production {1985/86 Averages) {'000 tonnes)
Primary Metal 276 1946 183 3268 Secondary Metal 116 1102 803 1613 Total 392 3048 986 4881
Net Imports {1985/86 Averages) {'000 tonnes) 173 1400 1395 1092
Source of Net Imports (%) European Community 12 1 1 Iceland 8 3 Norway 65 40 Spain 3 9 1 1 Sweden 3 2 Switzer 1 and 4 Yugoslavia 1 5 Canada 1 9 71 USA 1 12 S Africa 1 2 Australia 1 22 1 New Zealand 12 Cameroon 4 Egypt 2 5 Ghana 1 1 4 Argentina 1 2 Brazil 4 2 7 Surinam 1 Venezuela 2 13 4 Bahrain 3 1 UAE 3 5 Indonesia 13 Romania 4 USSR 1 3 5 Others 3 8 3 1
Net Exports {1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) 123 181 2 280
Consumption {1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes)
Primary Metal 370 3117 1660 4275 Secondary Metal 76 1007 969 1613 Total 446 4124 2629 5888
27
Aluminium/Bauxite/Alumina
UK EC ( 10) Japan USA
Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption 39 33 52 19 Imports as % of
consumption and net exports 30 31 52 18
Share of World Consumption (%) (Primary and Secondary Metal)
Western world 2.9 24.6 13.0 33.7 Total world 2.3 19.3 10.3 26.4
Consumption Growth (% p.a.) Primary Metal 1970s 1.6 4.2 7.1 2.8 Total Metal 1970s -1.6 4.1 7.3 3.2
28
ANTIMONY
WORLD RESERVES ('000 tonnes contained antimony and% of total)
Developed Developing
Australia 90 {2) Bolivia 310 {8) Canada 50 (1) Malaysia 120 (3) Italy 45 ( 1) Mexico 180 ( 4) S Africa 235 (6) Morocco 60 (1) Turkey 90 (2) Peru 60 ( 1) USA 75 (2) Thailand 270 (7) Yugoslavia ~ _jl) ----Totals 675 (16) 1000 (24) Grand Total 4170
Centrally Planned
China Czechoslovakia USSR
2180 (52)
45 ( 1) 270 ( 7)
2495 (60)
The world reserve base is 4.7 million tonnes and identified world resources are estimated at 5.0 million tonnes.
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION ('000 tonnes metal and% of total 1985/86 Averages)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Australia 1.26 (2.3) Bolivia 9.58 (17.6) China 13.75 (25.3) Austria 0.49 (0.9) Guatemala 1.37 (2.5) Czecho-Canada 2.49 (4.6) Malaysia 0.01 slovakia 0.95 (1. 7) Italy 0.39 (0. 7) Mexico 3.80 (7.0) USSR 6.25 (11.5) S Africa 7.20 (13.2) Morocco 0.86 ( 1. 6) Others 0.70 ( 1. 3) Spain 0.15 {0.3) Peru 0.32 {0.6) Turkey 1. 73 (3.2) Thai land 1.65 (3.0) USA 0.35 (0.6) Zimbabwe 0.12 (0.2) Yugoslavia 0 . 9 7 _jl!.§) ----- ----Totals 15.03 (27.6) 17.71 (32.6) 21.65 {39.8) Grand Total 54.39
WORLD PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985
World production capacity is 107,000 tonnes.
29
Antimony
SECONDARY PRODUCTION
Sizeable tonnages of antimony are contained in recycled antimonial lead, on which the available statistics are incomplete. Total secondary recovery averaged 13,635 tonnes of contained antimony in the United States and 1,623 tonnes in the United Kingdom in 1985/86. Changes in battery technology are continuing to reduce this source of supply.
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): 77 Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000: 3.9 1
CONSUMPTION (Primary)
1985/86 Averages tonnes
European Community United States Japan Western World
(a) Reported primary. (b) Of which oxide = 9374. (c) Metal only
10800 10275(a) 10231(b) 36000(c)
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (USA) (%)
Metal products Flame retardants Ceramics & glass Plastics Other
15 63
9 9 4
VALUE OF CONTAINED METAL IN ANNUAL PRODUCTION
% p.a. growth 1970s 1980-86
falling fast -3.2 -6.9 (b)
falling fast
3.9 -0.4 -8.4(c) n/a
$126 million (at average 1987 European Free Market metal price).
30
Antimony
SUBSTITUTES
Tin, calcium, copper, selenium and cadmium are among the substitute hardeners for lead in batteries. Antimonial lead has lost substantial market share in recent years in batteries, mainly to low-maintenance and maintenance-free battery systems.
Antimony can be replaced by organic compounds or hydrated aluminium oxide in flame retardants and by tellurium and selenium in rubber manufacture.
Plastics or stainless steel products can replace enamel coated products. Titanium, zinc, chromium, tin and zirconium may be substituted in paints, pigments and enamels.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Stabilisers in specialised plastics.
Advances in storage battery construction are bringing displacement of antimony and antimony recovery from this source is decreasing. Development of electric vehicles could utilise high-antimony batteries for deep-cycling characteristics.
Possible uses in aircraft night-vision systems and in space astronomy.
PRICES (Source: Metal Bulletin)
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
Ore Lump sulphide ore 60% Sb cif $/metric ton unit Sb Range 14.75-21 13.5-17.5 18.25-31 23-31 19-23 19.5-25
Metal European Free Market Regulus 99.6% $/tonne 2177.2 2004.4 3083.6 2812.3 2580.0 2314.2
Real 1987 price 2121.5 2034.9 3063.5 2783.6 2648.6 2314.2
Supply/demand balance important and brings fluctuating prices. Due to the influence of Chinese supplies, the free market is most important though there is some producer pricing for antimonial lead.
31
Antimony
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
Mixture of state-owned production (Bolivia, Russia and China) and large private companies (e.g.: Consolidated Murchison inS Africa). Producers, consumers and traders belong to the Organizacion Internacional del Antimonio, which studies the problem of supply/demand imbalance, promotes the use of antimony and researches future uses and production techniques. The US Government is continuing to dispose of offgrade antimony from its stockpile. At end-1986, 1250 tonnes remained in excess of requirements.
32
Antimony
ANTIMONY European free Mkt. Regulus 9.96%
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
140
130
120
110
100
90
80~--------r--------r--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
33
Antimony
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Mine 387 350 Metal (primary) n/a n/a 245 528(Sb) Oxides n/a n/a 8474 14670(Sb)
Net Imeorts (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes)
Ores and concentrates 3500(a) 19145(b) 5746 5667 (Sb content) (Sb content)
Unwrought metal 89 1363 4127 5928 Oxide 1173 1840 3141 9088
(Sb content)
Total Sb content 4562 12271 (b) 9550 20683
Wrought meta 1 393 402
(a) 1985 only (b) Excluding UK ores
Source of Net Imeorts (%)
Ores and Concentrates Australia 7 Canada 1 2 3 S Africa 4 2 Bolivia 25 67 7 Chile 2 2 China 42 24 24 Guatemala 4 7 Hong Kong 3 Mexico 38 Morocco 3 Singapore 7 Thailand 2 5 Turkey 8 Zimbabwe 2 Others 4 1 4
34
UK
Unwrought Metal (excluding alloys) European Community Spain Bolivia China Mexico Hong Kong Peru Turkey USSR Others
Oxide European Community USA Bolivia China Hong Kong S Africa USSR Others
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Ores and concentrates Unwrought metal Oxides Wrought metal
(a) Excluding UK
33
30
19 18
80
10
10
n/a 15
c. 3700 (c) 16
(b) Excluding Belgium-Luxembourg (c) 1985 only (d) Excluding UK and Belgium-Luxembourg
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) 479 (a)
1850 (b)
(a) Primary metal (b) All primary forms Sb content (c) Metal + oxide
EC(10)
4
49
29 11 7
77 5
18
299 (a) 108 (b)
2470 (d) 31
Japan
100
43 2
49 1
4 2
4
Antimony
USA
1 61 20 11 1
2 4
17
6 28 7
39
3
434 665 (Sb)
10800 (b) 857.5 (a) 10275 (b) (reported)
9373.5 (c) 23135 (d) (apparent)
(d) Mine output + imports of ores, metals and oxide less exports
35
Antimony
UK EC(10) Japan USA
ImEort DeEendence(primary) Imports as % of consumption 100 96 100 98 Imports as % of consumption and net exports 100 97 100 98
Share of World ConsumEtion % Western world 5 30 29 28
ConsumEtion Growth % p.a. 1970s -7.5 n/a -6.9 -5.5
(primary) but large (metal) (reported fall in primary) 1970s
0.2 (apparent total)
36
ARSENIC
WORLD RESERVES
Arsenic is mostly found in association with deposits of complex base-metal ores, particularly copper-lead-zinc ores and arsenical pyrite copper ore. Arsenic trioxide is recovered as a byproduct during the smelting of such ores.
World reserves of arsenic, contained in copper and lead reserves, are estimated at 1 million tonnes. Half of these deposits are located in Chile (260,000t}, USA (50,000t), Canada (50,000t), Mexico (40,000t}, Peru (40,000t) and Philippines (40,000t), with the remainder principally in Europe (France and Sweden), Africa (Namibia) and Oceania.
The reserve base is 1.5 million tonnes and world resources contain approximately 11 million tonnes of arsenic. Arsenic trioxide= 76% contained arsenic.
WORLD REFINERY PRODUCTION 2 1985/86 and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY 2 1985 (Arsenic trioxide tonnes and% of total)
Refinery % of Productive Production Production Capacity
Developed Belgium 3000 (15.4} 3000 Canada 3000 (5.4} 3000 France 9000 (16.3) 10000 W Germany 360 (0.7) (a) Japan 500 (0.9) 2000 Portugal 160 (0.3) (a) Sweden 10000 (18.2) 8000 USA 1100 (2.0} 2500 (c) Other Europe __!]}_!_ 2Q!L..(b)
Total 27120 (49.2) 29000
Developing Bolivia 280 (0.5} 400 Chile 5000 (9.1) 4000 Mexico 6156 (11.2) 7000 Namibia 2204 (4.0} 3000 Peru 1233 (2.2) 2500 Philippines 5000 (9.1) 5000 S Korea __!]}_!_ 800
Total 19873 (36.1) 22700
Centrall~ Planned USSR 8100 (14. 7) 10000
TOTAL 55093 61700
(a) Included in Other Europe (b) Mainly W Germany and Portugal although recovery is also known to have
occurred in recent years in Austria, Spain, UK, Yugoslavia and several E European nations.
(c) Refinery closed in 1986.
37
Arsenic
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): Ratio of identified reserve base to cumulative demand 1987-2000:
CONSUMPTION
23
2.5 1
Statistics are limited to the USA where demand has shown considerable annual variation since reaching a peak of 33,100 tonnes of arsenic trioxide in 1974. Following a decline in consumption in the 1970s (2.4% p.a.), the 1980s have seen a revival in use, with average demand in 1985/86 around 26,000 tonnes of arsenic trioxide. Since 1982 demand has increased at a rate of 7.7% p.a.
END USE PATTERNS 1986 USA (%)
Industrial Chemicals (wood preservatives and mineral flotation reagents) 67
Agricultural Chemicals (herbicides and plant desiccants) 25
Glass and Ceramics 4 Non-ferrous alloys
(metallic form) 2 Others
(animal feed additives, pharmaceuticals, etc.) 2
VALUE OF ANNUAL PRODUCTION
$55 million (as trioxide at 1987 prices)
SUBSTITUTES
Substitutes exist in most end uses, although sometimes at higher cost. Imposition of increasingly tight environmental regulations encourages substitution.
A wide variety of organic compounds substitute for arsenical insecticides and herbicides. Creosote and pentachlorophenol are often interchangeable with the arsenical wood preservatives.
Selenium and cerium are alternatives in glass. Calcium-lead alloys substitute for antimony-lead-arsenic alloys in car storage batteries.
38
Arsenic
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Improvement in recovery of arsenic and controlling arsenic emissions during non-ferrous metal smelting.
Replacement of silicon chip by gallium arsenide chip.
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
Trioxide Mexican 99.3% As203
fob Laredo Texas cents/lb 69.4 51.9 42.5 42.0 42.8 44
Rea 1 1987 price 71.3 52.7 42.1 41.8 43.9 44
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
Refinery production of arsenic trioxide is dominated by a handful of large companies of which IMM in Mexico, Boliden in Sweden, the state owned Centromin in Peru and Penarroya in France are the most important. Namibia's output comes from Tsumeb Corporation.
39
Arsenic
ARSENIC Trioxide US producer import 95% AS 2 0 3
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
----90~--------~------~~------~--------~------~
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
40
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes of arsenic trioxide) Mine Production Refinery
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) Arsenic trioxide Meta 11 ic arsenic
(a) Includes tellurium
UK
5032 153 (a)
EC(10)
12360
4443 (b) 495 (a)
Japan
n/a 500
153 43 (c)
Arsenic
USA
1100
21100 401
(b) Includes gross UK imports for which no source data are available (c) Includes boron
Source of Net Imports (%)
Arsenic trioxide Canada 13 European Community 92 32 S Africa 3 Sweden 24 Chile 4 China 3 Mexico 19 S Korea 6 Others 5
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Arsenic trioxide 112 3705 (b) Metallic arsenic 128 (a) 212 (a)
(a) Includes tellurium (b) Excludes Belgium-Luxembourg
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes of arsenic trioxide) n/a n/a n/a c. 25000
41
Arsenic
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Imeort Deeendence Imports as % of Consumption 100 n/a n/a 84 Imports as % Consumption
and net exports 100 n/a n/a 84
Share of World Consumetion (%)
Total world n/a n/a n/a c. 45
Consumetion Growth (% p.a.) 1970s n/a n/a n/a -2.4
42
WORLD RESERVES (million tonnes and% of total)
Developed
Canada 37 (33.0) S Africa 7 {6.2) USA 4 (3.6) Others 3 (2.7) (Australia, Cyprus, Japan, Yugoslavia)
Totals Grand Total
51 {45.9)
ASBESTOS
Developing Centrally Planned
13 (11.6) 48 {42.9) 112
The reserve base is 104 million tonnes. The world's identified resources total 200 million tonnes, and hypothetical resources include an additional 45 million tonnes.
43
Asbestos
WORLD MINE REFINERY PRODUCTION 2 1985/862 and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY 2 1985 ('000 tonnes and% of total)
Mine % of Productive Production Production Capacity
Developed Canada 695 (15.1) 1140 Cyprus 16 (0.3) 30 Greece 47 (1.0) 110 Italy 126 (2. 7) 175 Japan 4 (0.1) 4 S Africa 152 (3.3) 390 Turkey 2 15 USA 54 (1. 2) 100 Yugoslavia 7 (0.2) 20
Total 1103 (24.0) 2054
Developing Brazi 1 174 (3.8) 200 Colombia 13 (0.3) 15 India 30 (0.7) 35 Indonesia 25 (0.5) 25 S Korea 5 (0.1) 15 Swazi land 25 (0.5) 50 Zimbabwe 174 (3.8) 250 Others 2 9
Total 448 (9. 7) 599
Centrall~ Planned China 150 (3.3) 300 USSR 2900 (63.0) 2650 Others 7
Total 3050 (66.3) 2957
TOTAL 4601 (100) 5610
Over 95% of all asbestos mined is of crysotile. Amosite and crocidolite make up most of the remainder and are mined almost exclusively in South Africa. South African production capacity is 31% crysotile, 54% crocidolite and 15% amosite.
44
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000:
CONSUMPTION
24
1.2 1
1985/86 Averages '000 tonnes
European Community Japan United States
332 (apparent) 192.5 141
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (USA) (%)
Asbestos-cement pipe and sheet 21 Flooring products 5 Friction products 22 Coating and compounds 15 Packing and gaskets 4 Paper 11 Roofing products 17 Others 5
VALUE OF ANNUAL PRODUCTION
Asbestos
% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86
1.1 1.9
-3.9
-14.8 -6.0
-16.7
$1.6 billion approx. (based on 1987 average US fob mine value).
SUBSTITUTES
Although substitution is possible in many end uses, particularly asbestoscement products where ceramic and new plastic materials are available, few substitutes can give both physical and chemical characteristics at the same cost. However, regardless of the technical difficulties involved, greatly tightened health regulations are hastening the replacement of asbestos in all uses in developed countries. Among the alternatives are glassreinforced cement and artifical and natural fibres.
45
Asbestos
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Changes in manufacturing methods to reduce health hazards.
Potential new uses of asbestos are likely to be discouraged by the environmental hazards associated with it. However there is some potential for use in high strength asphalt paving materials. Use as a reinforcing agent for lightweight plastics will grow as energy conservation increases in car and steel-consuming industries.
PRICES
Canadian Chrysotile fibre
1982
$ C/short ton (range)
Group 3
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
(Spinning fibre) 1199-1980 1361-2223 1043-2268 1043-2268 1043-2268 1043-2268 Group 4 (Spinning fibre) 877-1246 980-1361 980-1361 980-1361 980-1361 980-1361 Group 7 (Refuse/Shorts) 124-252 145-281 145-281 145-281 145-281 145-281 Group 7 Real 1987 prices 127-259 147-285 144-279 144-278 149-288 145-281
Producer pricing in fixed contracts with discounting. Price depends on grade.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
Asbestos is available in a number of different minerals but the majority of demand is for chrysotile. Vertical integration was a dominant feature in the industry until recently; today, Turner & Newall (UK) and the Eternite Group (Belgium) are the only multinational corporations that both mine and manufacture asbestos products.
46
105
100
95
90
85
ASBESTOS Fibre Group 7 (Range) Real 7
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
I' I '
I I
I I
I I
I I
I I
I
money terms , ____ .; rea/1987 terms
Asbestos
/
80~--------~------~~------~--------~------~
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
47
Asbestos
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
Production (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes)
UK EC ( 10) Japan
173
USA
54
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes) 32.2 215 259 125
(of which crocidolite and amos ite 3)
Source of Net Imports (%)
Canada 75 Cyprus 2 European Community 6 S Africa 15 USA USSR Zimbabwe 1 Others 1 (a) 100% of amosite and crocidolite
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes)
Consumption (1985/86 Averages)
0.25
63 2
9
16 6 4
56.3
( 1 000 tonnes) 32.0 332
Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption Imports as % of consumption
and net exports
Share of World Consumption (%) Total world (approx)
Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s
(apparent) (apparent)
100
100
1
-2.8
48
65
55
7
1.1
39
5 22 4
16 13 1
0.2
192.5
100
100
4
1.9
94
6 (a)
46.5 (including
re-exports)
141
89
67
3
-3.9
WORLD RESERVES ('000 tonnes and% of total)
Developed
Canada 2700 (2) France 1800 ( 1) Germany 900 ( .. ) Greece 900 ( .. ) Ireland 1800 ( 1) Italy 1800 ( 1) Turkey 3600 (2) USA 27000 (16) Yugoslavia 1800 ( 1) Others .2QQU Totals 43200 (26) Grand Total
BARYTES
Developing
Algeria 1800 ( 1) Brazil 900 ( .. ) Chile 1800 ( 1) India 31000 (19) Mexico 6350 (4) Morocco 9000 (5) Peru 1800 ( 1) Thailand 8200 (5) Others 9000 (5)
----69850 (42)
165250
Centrally Planned
China USSR Others
36000 (22) 9000 (5) 7200 (4)
52200 (32)
The world reserve base is 450 million tonnes and total world resources are believed to be roughly 1,800 million tonnes.
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION ('000 tonnes and% of total 1985/86 Averages)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Canada 55 ( 1. 0) Algeria 60 ( 1.1) China 1000 (18.6) France 118 (2.2) Argentina 45 (0.8) Czecho-W Germany 186 (3.5) Brazil 105 (2.0) s 1 ov ak i a 60 ( 1.1) Ireland 171 (3.2) Chile 54 ( 1. 0) E Germany 35 (0. 7) Italy 121 (2.2) India 451 (8.4) Poland 95 ( 1. 8) Japan 64 ( 1. 2) Iran 90 (1. 7) Romani a 75 ( 1.4) Spain 58 ( 1.1) Mexico 421 (7.8) USSR 540 ( 10.0) Turkey 270 (5.0) Morocco 327 (6.1) UK 97 ( 1.8) Thailand 187 (3.5) USA 470 ( 8. 7) Others 116 (2.2) Yugoslavia 39 (0.7) Others ___]_1_ ~) ----- -----Totals 1721 (32.0) 1856 (34.5) 1805 (33.5) Grand Total 5382
49
Barytes
PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY~ 1985 (Major producers) ('000 tonnes)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Canada 90 Algeria) 450 France 225 Morocco) China 1090 Poland 110
W Germany 270 Braz i 1 135 Romania 90 Ireland 225 Chile 360 USSR 545 Italy 270 India 360 N. Korea 110 Spain 90 Iran 135 Turkey 180 Mexico 360 USA 900 Peru 360
Thailand 360 Totals 2250 2520 1945
The combined production capacity of other producers is 510,000 tonnes, giving a total world barytes production capacity of 7,225,000 tonnes.
RESERVE PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000:
CONSUMPTION
1985/86 Averages '000 tonnes
31
1.5 1
European Community Japan
758 (apparent) 87
United States 1542 (a)
% p.a. growth 1970s 1980-86
-0.6 0.4 8.9
-1.6 -0.6 -16.7
(a) Ground and crushed barytes sold or used by processors. Apparent primary consumption is estimated at 1,735,000 tonnes.
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (USA) (%)
Drilling 90 Chemicals, Glass, Paint, Rubber 10
50
Barytes
VALUE OF ANNUAL PRODUCTION
$0.4 billion (at 1987 average prices).
SUBSTITUTES
Drilling mud substitutes include celestite, iron ores, synthetic haematite and ilmenite. However low costs and technical advantages of barytes deter substitution.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Reclaiming and recycling of drilling muds would decrease requirement for new supplies.
New energy sources and development of enhanced oil recovery techniques would reduce need for conventional oil and gas and hence bring drop in drilling activity.
Increasing use in heavy concrete for radiation shields.
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
Drilling mud grade, 4.2 SG cif £/tonne (range) 45-55 50-55 50-55 50-57 45-57 45-50
Drilling mud grade Real 1987 price 44-56 51-56 50-55 49-56 46-59 45-50
Ground white paint grade 96-98%, BaS04 £/tonne (range) 85-105 85-105 85-135 125-135 125-135 125-135
Usually long term supply contracts. Transport costs important.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
The barytes market is largely dependent upon the state of the oil and gas industry. The increasing importance of Chinese production has reduced the previous domination of the market by five US-based companies who together control or are associated with most of the major producing mines in the Western world.
51
Barytes
BARYTES Ground OCMA bulk delivered Aberdeen (was drilled mud grade)
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
115
110
105
100
95
--, \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ ~
90~--------~------~--------,--------,--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
52
Barytes
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) 97 736 64 470
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) 105.4 176 40.6 1270.5
(crude & (crude) ground) 42
(ground)
Source of Net Imports (%) European Community 71 1 Spain 14 Turkey 3 7 Chile 4 China 2 30 100 47 India 19 Mexico 2 Morocco 22 35 15 Peru 1 Thailand 6 Others 3 9 5
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) 11.9 153.7 6
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ( '000 tonnes) 190 758 87 1542
(apparent) (apparent)
Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption 55 23 47 85 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports 52 19 47 85
Share of World Consumption (%) Total world 3 14 2 29
Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s 6.8 -0.6 0.4 8.9
53
BERYLLIUM
WORLD RESERVES {'000 tonnes of beryllium content and% of total)
Developed
Australia Portugal S Africa USA
Totals Grand Tot a 1
11 (2.9) 1 {0.3)
15 {3.9) 25 {6.6)
52 {13. 7)
(a) Probably large.
Developing
Argentina Brazil India Mozambique Rwanda Uganda Zaire Zimbabwe
381
Centrally Planned
25 {6.6) China 140 {36.7) USSR
64 {16.8) 5 {1.3)
11 (2.9) 15 {3.9)
7 {1.8) _1 _@d) 268 (70.3)
n/a (a) 61 (16.0)
61 {16.0)
Beryllium occurs in approximately 90 minerals with beryl and bertrandite, the two commercial ores. Only the USA has deposits of bertrandite. Outside of the USA, firm data on beryl reserves are scarce due to the unpredictable nature of concentration and occurrence of beryl in rocks.
The reserve base is approximately twice the size of reserves, with additional deposits in Canada and Mexico.
54
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION, 1985/86, and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985 (tonnes of beryllium content and% of total)
Mine % of Production Production
Developed Portugal ( .. ) S Africa ( .. ) USA 223 (65.2)
Total 223 {65.2)
Developing Argentina 1 {0.3) Brazil 37 {10.8) Madagascar 2 {0.6) Mozambique ( .. ~ Rwanda 1 (0.3 Zimbabwe 2 {0.6) Others
Total 43 {12.6)
Centrall~ Planned China n/a USSR 76 (22.2)
Total 76 (b) (22.2) {b)
TOTAL 342 {b)
(a) Included in Others {b) Excluding China
Beryllium
Production Capacity
2 8
360 370
45 225 n/a (a)
3 18 23 54
368
75 225 300
1038
The beryllium obtained was extracted from c. 8,550 tonnes of beryl and bertrandite. Bolivia, Nepal and Namibia may also have produced beryl.
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): Ratio of reserves to cumulative demand: very 1 arge
55
Beryllium
CONSUMPTION
Consumption data are scarce except in the USA which is the world's major consumer. Its apparent consumption in 1985/86 was 263 tonnes of contained beryllium. US consumption declined by 1.7% per annum in the 1970s and by 1.7% per annum in the 1980-86 period.
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (USA) (%)
Nuclear reactors & aerospace applications (metal)
Electrical equipment (alloy & oxide)
Electronic components (alloy & oxide)
Other (compounds & metal)
40
35
17 8
VALUE OF CONTAINED METAL IN ANNUAL PRODUCTION
$235 million at average 1987 prices.
SUBSTITUTES
Although beryllium can be substituted in some applications, this usually results in substantial loss of performance.
Steel, titanium and graphite composites compete for structural uses of beryllium metal. Graphite is also an alternative for nuclear uses and in aircraft brake applications. Phosphor-bronze can sometimes be used in place of beryllium-copper alloys and sintered alumina in ceramic applications.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Beryllium metal is likely to face competition from composites such as graphite fibres.
Development of alternative ceramics such as aluminium nitride. New applications in low density aluminium alloys for aerospace and nuclear fields.
56
Beryllium
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
Ore, imported into USA $/mtu 130.65 129.1 121.25 111.24 93.82 89.83
Ore, imported Real 1987 price 134.08 131.06 120.46 110.11 6.31 89.83
US Metal $/lb 241.4 241.4 307.03 313.0 313.0 313.0
Ore contracts are usually negotiated on an individual basis. Metal prices are set by US producers.
MARKETING
Production is concentrated in USA, USSR and Brazil, with both the USA and USSR largely self sufficient. The USA is the world's major supplier of finished and semi-finished beryllium materials.
57
Beryllium
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
Production (1985/86 Averages) Mine Imports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Beryl ore (contained beryllium) Metal (unwrought) Source of Net Imports (%) USA European Community S Africa Switzerland China Braz i1 Argentina Others and unspecified Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Metal
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) (a) Metal + oxide Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption Imports as % of consumption
and net exports Share of World Consumption (%) Total world Consumption Growth (%) 1970s
UK
5
Metal 80 20
67
3.5
n/a
100
100
n/a
n/a
EC(10)
4
Metal 100
5
n/a
100
100
n/a
n/a (a) Major western producer and consumer of primary
beryllium products, metal, alloys and oxide.
58
Japan
0.1 Metal
96
4
n/a
USA
223
57
Ore
5 2 2
19 64 4 1
45 ( inc • a 11 oys
waste & scrap)
91 (a) 263 (apparent)
100 22
100 19
n/a n/a (a)
n/a -1.7
Beryllium
BERYLLIUM Ore imported in to USA
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
150
140
130
120
110
100
90~--------~------~--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
59
BISMUTH
WORLD RESERVES ('000 tonnes of contained bismuth and% of total)
Developed
Australia Canada Japan USA Other Totals Grand Total
18 (19.6) 5 (5.4)
23 (25.0) 9 (9.8) __?_~)
60 (65.2)
Developing
Bolivia 5 (5.4) S Korea 4 (4.3) Mexico 5 (5.4) Peru 11 (12. 0)
---25 (27.2)
92
Centrally Planned
China 5 (5.4) Other 2 (2.2)
---7 (7.6)
Bismuth is derived as a byproduct from various base metal ores, including lead, copper and tin; the above estimates of world reserves are based only on the bismuth content of lead and copper reserves. On the same basis, the reserve base is 204,000 tonnes. Coal ash is a potential source of bismuth, as are deep sea manganese nodules.
60
Bismuth
BISMUTH New York dealer 99.9% min.
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
140
120
100
80
60
40~--------~------~--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
61
Bismuth
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION 2 1985/86 2 and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY 2 1985 (tonnes of bismuth and% of total)
Mine % of Productive Production Production Capacity
Developed Australia 700 (16.3) 1815 Canada 210 (a) (4.9) 680 Japan 638 (14.8) 950 USA 400 (9.3) 680 Yugoslavia 45 ( 1. 0) 135
Total 1993 (46.3) 4260
Developing Bolivia 101 (2.3) 680 S Korea 136 (3.2) 180 Mexico 911 (a) ( 21.2) 1135 Peru 733 (a) (17.0) 910
Total 1881 (43.7) 2905
Centrallt Planned China 260 (6.0) 360 Romania 82 ( 1. 9) 90 USSR 84 (2.0) 90
Total 426 (9.9) 540
TOTAL 4300 7705
(a) Includes content of exported concentrates.
The production figures in the table are derived from reported bismuth content of metal plus recoverable bismuth in ores and concentrates.
Australia and Bolivia stockpiled bismuth-rich residues at mine sites due to slack market conditions prior to a revival of demand in 1984/85. By 1986 they were all used up. Then all mine output came from byproduct sources.
In addition to the listed countries, Brazil, Bulgaria, France, Italy, W Germany, E Germany and Namibia are also believed to produce bismuth.
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000:
21
1.5 1
62
CONSUMPTION
European Community Japan USA
1985/86 Averages '000 tonnes
c400 402
1261
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (USA) (%)
Pharmaceuticals and chemicals 50 Manufacturing of parts for machinery 23 Primary metal industry 25 Others 2
VALUE OF CONTAINED METAL IN ANNUAL PRODUCTION
Bismuth
% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86
n/a n/a -0.6
-6.5 3.4 4.1
$32.5 million (at average 1987 European Free Market prices).
SUBSTITUTES
Antibiotics, magnesia and alumina are alternatives in pharmaceutical uses, mica and fishscales in cosmetics. Tellurium can substitute as a steel additive and plastics are an alternative for bismuth alloys in some castings applications.
However, bismuth's non-toxicity means that it continues to maintain most markets, and to expand into lead and cadmium markets on health grounds.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
New uses in bismuth-containing smoke and flame retardants, in electronic applications, plastic stabilisers, paint additives and batteries.
Increasing use of bismuth as an additive in free machining steel and to modify the carbon structure of ductile iron.
63
Bismuth
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
US producer $/lb 2.30 2.30 4.14 6.5 6.5 * New York dealer 99.9% min $/lb 1.57 1.68 4.14 5.06 3.14 3.67
New York dealer real 1987 price 1.61 1.70 4.10 5.04 3.22 3.67
European Free Market $/lb 1.46-1.67 1.66 3.95-4.11 4.77-5.04 1. 95-3.8 2.05-4.8
* list price suspended.
Source: Metal Bulletin.
Mostly producer pricing but dealer market has strong influence on prevailing price.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
Production is entirely from by-product sources although deposits exist in Bolivia where bismuth could be mined as sole product should prices rise sufficiently. Most production shipped to major consumers for refining or direct use. Increasingly though, major producing countries are installing their own refining capacity. The role of China as both producer and consumer is increasing in importance.
64
Bismuth
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Mine n/a c. 400 Metal n/a n/a 638 c. 100
Imports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Metal (including alloys) 386 587 1018
(exc. Belgium - Luxembourg)
Source of Net Imports (%)
Australia 10 Canada 4 European Community 58 42 Japan 7 China 2 S Korea 2 Mexico 33 Peru 17 9 Others and undefined 42 73
Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Metal (including alloys) 77 243.5 82
(exc. Belgium - Luxembourg
and UK))
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Metal n/a c. 400 402 1261
Import Dependence (metal) Imports as % of consumption 100 81 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports 100 79 76
Share of World Consumption (%)
Total world n/a 10 10 31
Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s n/a n/a n/a -0.6
65
BORON
WORLD RESERVES (million tonnes of B203 content and% of total)
Developed Developing
Turkey 110 {33) Argentina USA 105 {32) Bolivia
Chile Peru --
Totals 215 (65) Grand Total 330
30 {9)
30 {9)
Centrally Planned
China 30 ( 9) USSR 55 (17)
85 (26)
The B203 content of the total reserve base is 620 million tonnes.
Boron oxide (B203) = 31% contained boron.
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION 2 1985/86 2 and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY 2 1985 {'000 tonnes of B203 and% of total)
Mine % of Productive Production Production Capacity
Developed Turkey 318 (32.8) 315 USA 574 (59.3) 815
Total 892 (92.1) 1130
Developing Argentina 28 (2.9) 28 Chile 1 (0.1) n/a Peru 2 (0.2) 5
Total 31 (3.2) 33
Centrally Planned China 5 {0.5) 6 USSR 40 (4.1) 41
Total 45 {4.6) 47
TOTAL 968 1210
66
RESERVE PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): (B203 content)
340
Ratio of reserve base to cumulative demand 1987-2000: 20 : 1
CONSUMPTION
European Community Japan USA
END USE PATTERNS (%)
USA (1986)
Glass products 59 Chemical fire
retardants 6 Soap & detergents 7 Agricultural &
biological 4 Porcelain & enamel 3 Metallurgical &
nuclear 1 Other 19
1985/86 Averages '000 tonnes B203
c. 400 59
317
Europe (1987)
Glass products Ceramics Agriculture Bleaches Other
VALUE OF ANNUAL PRODUCTION
26 16
2 37 19
% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86
n/a 1.2 3.6
n/a n/a -2.1
Rest of World (1987)
Glass products Ceramics Agriculture Bleaches Other
42 19 8 1
30
$0.6 billion (at average 1987 prices for contained B203).
SUBSTITUTES
Possible in applications such as soaps, detergents, enamel, agriculture and insulation. Environmental concern may hasten substitution.
67
coins)
Boron
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Improvement in evaporation of brine solution may widen choice of sources. Production of boric acid through solution mining of colemanite. Substitution of borosilicate glass by plastic materials.
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
Borax, pentahydrate technical granular bulk ex works $/short ton 201
Real 1987 price 206.6
Borax, pentahydrate UK i/tonne 325.7
201
204
344
208
206.2
344
214
213.2
344
220
225.7
438.8
226
226
448
Products sold principally under contract and list prices give an indication only.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
Production is highly concentrated in the USA and Turkey. In the USA there are three producing companies, with one much larger than the other two. The majority of Turkish output is controlled by the state owned Etibank. The main markets are in the industrial countries.
68
105
100
95
90
BORON Granulated borax pentahydrate, technical in bulk Ex works. US$/ short ton.
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
money terms
I I
I
1-I
I I
I
---
85~--------r--------r--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
69
Boron
Boron
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) Minerals 1143
(574 B203)
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) Minerals 65.6 (a) 155 (a) 29.7 55 Oxide and acid 4.5 16.4 25.8 7.5 (a) Includes crude natural boric acid.
Source of Net Imports (%)
Oxide and Acid EEC 94 17 29 USA 11 73 Yugoslavia 2 China 5 3 USSR 1 6 2 Turkey 4 70 5 70 Others and undefined 6 1
Ore USA 13 USSR 2 Turkey 99 86 94 100 Others 1 1 4
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) Oxide and acid 5.2 173 41.6 Refined sodium borates 6.4 565.9
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ( '000 tonnes) c. 80 c. 400 c. 59 647
(317 B203)
70
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Im~ort De~endence
Imports as % of consumption 100 100 100 8 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports 100 100 100 4
Share of World Consum~tion (%)
Total world c. 8 c. 42 6 33
Consum~tion Growth (% p.a.) 1970s n/a n/a 1.2 3.6
71
coins)
CADMIUM
WORLD RESERVES ('000 tonnes of metal and% of total)
Developed Developing
Australia 55 (9.9) Brazi 1 Canada 80 (14.4) India Ireland 15 (2.7) Mexico Japan 10 (1.8) Peru S Africa 35 (6.3) Zaire Spain 20 (3.6) Others USA 90 (16.2) Others 40~)
Totals 345 (62.2) Grand Total 555
5 (0.9) 15 (2.7) 35 (6.3) 25 (4.5) 20 (3.6) 50 (9.0)
---150 (27.0)
Centrally Planned
China Poland USSR
15 (2. 7) 10 (1.8) 35 (6.3)
60 {10.8)
These figures are based primarily on estimated world resources of zinc. The world reserve base on the same basis is 970,000 tonnes and world resources exceed 6 million tonnes. Resources are substantially higher when allowance is made for other cadmium-bearing materials.
WORLD PRODUCTION OF REFINED CADMIUM AT SMELTERS (tonnes of metal and % of total 1985/86 Averages) Note: Cadmium is extracted from ores and concentrates, flue dusts and other
materials, which sometimes include scrap. Statistics on mine production by country are not available.
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Australia 910 (4.7) Algeria 126 (0.6) Bulgaria 173 (0.9) Austria 53 (0.3) Argentina 47 (0.2) China 390 (2.0) Belgium 1316 (6.8) Brazil 233 ( 1. 2) E Germany 17 (0.1) Canada 1632 (8.4) India 177 (0.9) N Korea 355 ( 1. 8) Finland 546 (2.8) Mexico 727 (3. 7) Poland 605 (3.1) France 384 (2.0) Namibia 60 (0.3) Romania 55 (0.3) W Germany 1157 (6.0) Peru 406 (2.1) USSR 2725 (14.1) Italy 330 (1. 7) S Korea 453 (2.3) Japan 2512 (13.0) Zaire 330 (1. 7) Netherlands 576 (3.0) Norway 157 (0.8) Spain 257 ( 1.3) Turkey 19 ~0.1) UK 375 1.9) USA 2015 (10.4) Yugoslavia ~__lhi) ----- -----Totals 12508 (64.5) 2559 (13.2) 4320 (22.2) Grand Total 19387
Includes secondary production where known. 72
Cadmium
REFINERY CAPACITY, 1985
World refinery capacity is 24,500 tonnes of which 18% is located in N America, 21% in Japan and a further 10% in Australia, Mexico and Peru. The remainder is mainly in W and E Europe.
RESERVE PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): 29 Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000 (based on zinc reserves alone): 2 : 1
CONSUMPTION
1985/86 Averages '000 tonnes
% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86
European Community 6084 Japan 1954 United States 4406 Others 1599 Total Western world 14043
Total world 18315
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (%)
USA
Coating Plating 32 Pigments 16 Batteries 29 Plastics & synthetic products 15 Others (including alloys) 8
1.4 -3.8 -2.1 7.4
0.7
UK
Colours Plating anodes & salts Cadmium copper Solder Alloys Miscellaneous (including
batteries)
VALUE OF CONTAINED METAL IN ANNUAL PRODUCTION
$81 million (refined metal at average 1987 prices).
73
0.3 9.8 4.7
-2.8 2.2
2.1
55 25 1 2 1
17
Cadmium
SUBSTITUTES
There is increasing environmental pressure to replace cadmium in many of its end uses but lack of suitable alternatives has so far prevented its widespread replacement.
Zinc and aluminium can be substituted for some cadmium electroplating applications. Organotin compounds can be used in plastic stabilisers but at higher cost. Cadmium can be substituted in many alloys by a variety of metals, and inorganic compounds can replace it in paints and pigments. Lead-acid batteries can be used as a substitute for nickel-cadmium batteries but at the cost of reliability and longevity.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Solar energy cells.
Magnetic semiconductors
New forms of batteries.
Increased recovery from secondary sources and restriction on its use for environmental and health reasons could depress primary production.
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
European Free Market: (a) Ingots $/lb 0.8 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.92 1.77
European Free Market: Ingots - real 1987 prices 0.82 0.91 1.29 0.79 0.94 1.77
US Producer Metal 99.5% $/lb 1.12 1.13 1.69 1.21 1.26 2.02
(a) Source: Metal Bulletin
Combination of producer and free market prices.
Mainly produced as a by-product of zinc smelting and prices tend not to bear a relationship to the supply/demand balance. At times of low prices, penalty clauses are sometimes imposed on zinc concentrates containing cadmium.
74
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
Wide spread of producers with consumption largely concentrated in industrialised countries.
Cadmium
Environmental pressures are becoming an increasingly important restraint on growth especially in some industrialised countries.
Increased domestic demand in Japan is resulting in changes in marketing patterns.
75
Cadmi urn
CADMIUM European free mkt. Ingots
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
100
90
80
70
60
50
40~--------~--------~--------~--------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
76
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Refined metal
UK
375
EC(10) Japan
4137 2512
Cadmium
USA
2015
Note: Production in the European Community and Japan is based mainly on imported ores.
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Refined metal Wrought metal
Source of Net Imports (%) Australia Canada European Community Finland Japan China Mexico Peru S Korea Zaire Others
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Refined metal Wrought metal
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Refined metal
987
95
1421
77
1532 144
1985 only 6
47
11 3 9
4 4
10 6
156 78
6084
417
1954
2581
20 44 15 1
12 3 1
62
4406
Cadmium
Import Dependence* Imports as % of consumption Imports as % of consumption
and net exports
Share of World Consumption (%) Western world Total world
Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s
UK
69
65
10 8
-0.2
EC(10)
28
27
43 33
1.4
Japan
14 11
-3.8
USA
59
58
31 24
-2.1
*Note: For the European Community and Japan this does not take account of the imported raw materials.
78
CHROMIUM
WORLD RESERVES (million tonnes gross weight and% of total}
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Finland 17 ( 1. 6) Brazi 1 8 (0.8} Albania 6 (0.6} S Africa 825 (78.1) India 14 ( 1. 3) USSR 130 (12.3} Turkey 5 (0.5} Madagascar 7 (0.7) Others 4 (0.4} Others 2 (0.2} New Caledonia 2 (0.2)
Philippines 14 ( 1.3) Zimbabwe 17 (1. 6) Others _5~) ------
Totals 849 (80.4) 67 (6.3) 140 (13.3} Grand Total 1056
The world reserve base totals approximately 6,880 million tonnes, 95% of which is found in S Africa and Zimbabwe. World resources total approximately 33,000 million tonnes, gross weight.
The above data assume a Cr203 content of 45% for chemical and metallurgical grade deposits and a 32% Cr203 content for refractory grade deposits. The former are usually classed as high-Cr and high Fe-chromite, the latter as high-alumina chromite.
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION ( 1000 tonnes gross weight and% of total 1985/86 Averages)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Finland 560 (5.2) Brazi 1 195 ( 1.8) Albania 838 (7.8} Greece 60 (0.6} India 602 (5.6} Cuba 44 (0.4} Japan 11 (0.1} Iran 50 (0.5} USSR 2970 ( 27. 7} S Africa 3803 (35.5) Madagascar 105 (1.0} Vietnam 15 (0.1} Turkey 594 (5.5) New Caledonia 77 (0.7}
Pakistan 7 ( .. ) Philippines 237 (2.2) Sudan 17 (0.2} Zimbabwe 540 _li_&) ---- -----
Totals 5028 (46.9} 1830 (17.1) 3867 (36.0} Grand Total 10725
79
Chromium
WORLD MINE CAPACITY 1985 ('000 tonnes of contained chromium)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Finland 170 Braz i 1 113 Albania 293 Greece 15 India 172 Cuba 26 Japan 2 Iran 27 USSR 910 S Africa 1325 Madagascar 38 Vietnam 5 Turkey 218 New Caledonia 30
Pakistan 1 Philippines 154 Sudan 9 Zimbabwe 342
Totals 1730 886 1234 Grand Total 3850
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): 99 Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000: 21 1 approx.
CONSUMPTION
European Community Japan United States
1985/86 Averages '000 tonnes
468 441 278
The figures cover the chrome content of all forms.
80
% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86
6.5 4.1 0.5
-6.5 -0.6 -9.9
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (USA) (%)
Chromite: intermediate outlets Metallurgical and chemical industry Refractory industry
Ferroalloys and metal
88 12
Stainless and heat-resisting steels 79 Other steels 13 Superalloys 3 Cast irons 2 Other 3
VALUE OF ANNUAL PRODUCTION
$0.46 billion (as chromite at 1987 average price).
SUBSTITUTES
Chromium
Substitutes deterred by cost, performance or customer appeal for chromium.
Boron, manganese, nickel and molybdenum can be substituted in alloy steels and cast irons. Base metal alloys can sometimes be used in place of stainless steel.
Dolomite is an alternative for some refractory bricks. Cadmium yellow is one of several alternative pigments, and nickel and zinc ores are possible substitutes for decorative coating protection.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Changing steel technology is reducing the use of chromite refractories.
Increased chromium recovery through prereduction of chromite with solid fuels.
81
Chromium
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
Ore, Transvaal 44% Cr203 no ratio $/tonne 53.9 53.9 53.9 45.3 41.0 42.5
Ore. Transv aa 1 Real 1987 prices 55.3 54.7 53.6 44.8 42.1 42.5
Ore, Turkish 48% Cr203 3:1 ratio $/tonne 110 110 110 112.25 125 107.5
Metal, US Electrolytic 99.1% Cr $/lb 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.54 3.45
Ferrochrome, US producer charge 66-70% (3% Si, 5-6.5% C, 66-70% Cr) cents/lb 53 43 46.7 54 54 53.5
Most ore is sold on long term contracts but there is a small free market.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
Ore production is increasingly highly concentrated with large state (e.g. USSR, Etibank in Turkey) and private interests (e.g. S Africa). Some ore producers are linked with ferroalloy companies but only two firms (Outokumpo Oy of Finland and Middleburg Steel and Alloys of S Africa) are totally vertically integrated from chromite mining to stainless steel production. There is a growing trend towards steel industry use of lower grade ferrochrome and towards production of ferrochrome near mines. Ferrochrome production in USA and Europe has become increasingly uncompetitive.
The concentration of chromium production and reserves in S Africa and the USSR has led to fears over future security of supplies.
82
130
120
110
100
CHROMIUM Ore Transvaal44% Cr ,03
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
real 1987r, -- erms -.....
money terms
..........
Chromium
904---------~------~~------~---------r--------, 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
83
Chromium
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) Chromite Ore (gross) 60 11 Ferrochromes (gross) and metal 145 318 97.5
(exc. metal) Ferrochrome and metal (Cr content) 84 184 60.4
( exc. meta 1)
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes)
Chromite ore (gross) 138 600 (a) 829 409 Ferrochromes (gross) 86 522 (a) 345 326
(a) Excluding UK
Source of Net Imports (%)
Chromite Fin 1 and 3 S Africa 79 53 56 71 Turkey 12 4 Albania 27 8 2 USSR 2 5 2 India 11 Madagascar 1 10 New Caledonia 4 Philippines 3 2 7 Others 21 2 1
84
Chromium
UK EC(lO) Japan USA
Ferrochrome (= 58% contained chromium) European Community 19 2 3 Finland 7 Norway 1 S Africa 40 51 63 60 Spain 4 2 Sweden 23 5 2 Turkey 1 1 11 Yugoslavia 3 5 USSR 2 Albania 4 Braz i 1 2 7 3 India 1 7 Philippines 1 11 Zimbabwe 12 12 8 11 Others 1 9 2 1
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ( '000 tonnes) Chromite (gross) 0.3 10.4 0.5 89.9
(inc. re-exports) Ferrochrome (gross) 1.45 38.7 4.5 7.4
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) Chromite ore (gross) 138 650 839 448 Ferrochromes (gross) 85 628 658 330 Total consumption (Cr content) 90 468 441 278
(apparent) (apparent) (apparent)
Import Dependence (chromite) Imports as % of consumption 100 92 99 91 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports 100 91 99 76
Share of World Consumption (%) Total world 3 18 21 10
Consumption Growth (% p.a.)
1970s -4.8 6.5 4.1 0.5
85
COBALT
WORLD RESERVES ('000 tonnes of contained cobalt and% of total)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Australia 25 (0. 7) Brazi 1 5 (0.1) USSR 135 (3.8) Canada 45 (1. 2) Botswana 10 (0.3) Cuba 1025 (28.5) Finland 25 (0. 7) India 18 (0.5) Greece 15 (0.4) Indonesia 180 (5.0) S Africa 20 (0.6) New Caledonia 225 (6.2) Yugoslavia 10 (0.3) Philippines 135 (3.8)
Zaire 1360 (37.8) Zambia 360 (10.0)
--- Zimbabwe _2~) -----Tot a 1 s 140 (3.9) 2295 (63.8) 1160 (32.3) Grand Total 3595
The world's estimated reserve base is 8.2 million tonnes with, in addition to the above countries, deposits in the USA, Guatemala, Peru, Morocco, Uganda and Papua New Guinea. Identified world resources total 11 million tonnes of cobalt with millions of tonnes of potential resources also contained in seabed nodules.
86
Cobalt
WORLD MINE AND METAL PRODUCTION 2 1985/86 2 and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITIES, 1985 (tonnes of metal and % of total)
Mine Metal
P d t. % of ro uc lon Product ion Capacity P d t. % of ro uc lon Production Capacity
Develo2ed Australia 855 (3.0) 2040 (-) Canada 2278 (7.9) 6350 2005 (7.5) 2720 Finland 953 (3.3) 1360 1450 (5.4) 1815 France 104 (0.4) 1495 Japan 1307 (4.9) 2995 Norway 1608 (6.0) 1815 S Africa 455 455 USA 910
Total 4086 (14.2) 10205 6474 (24.1) 12205
Develo2ing Botswana 220 (0.8) 320 Brazil 125 (0.4) n/a New Caledonia 687 (2.4) 320 Philippines 500 (1. 7) 1270 Zaire 12578 (43.6) 10890 11133 ( 41.4) 16785 Zambia 5780 (20.1) 4535 4350 (16.2) 4990 Zimbabwe 100 (0.3) 90 91 (0.3) ...Bl2_
Total 19990 (69.3) 17425 15574 (57.9) 21775
Centrall~ Planned Albania 590 (2.0) n/a Cuba 1413 (4.9) 3175 USSR 2765 (9.6) 3175 4855 (18. 0) 4535
Total 4768 (16.5) 6350 4855 (18.0) 4535
TOTAL 28844 33980 26903 38515
A number of other countries mine cobalt-containing ores but data are inadequate for reliable estimates to be made. Where possible data cover cobalt recovered rather than the content of ore raised.
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): 99 (land only) Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000: 8.6 : 1 (land only)
87
Cobalt
CONSUMPTION
European Community Japan
United States
1985/86 Averages tonnes
c. 5000 1687
6346 (a)
% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86
0.2 0.7
n/a -5.0
(metal only) -1.0
(a) Reported consumption. Apparent consumption is higher at 7499, excluding GSA purchases.
END USE PATTERNS, 1986
USA
Superalloys Magnetic alloys Cutting & wear-resistant
materials Chemical & ceramic use Others (mainly alloy steels,
non-ferrous alloys & welding materials)
45 12
5 30
8
Japan
Speciality steels Magnetic a 11 oys Cutting materials Catalysts Others
VALUE OF CONTAINED METAL IN ANNUAL PRODUCTION
$0.38 billion (refined metal at 1987 free market price).
SUBSTITUTES
25 21 14 15 25
There are few effective substitutes for most major end uses of cobalt. The trend is towards reduction of, rather than elimination of cobalt in alloys, eg: iron-base, heat-resistant alloys for cobalt-base materials in turbine applications.
In less demanding applications, nickel- and ferrite-magnets are among the alternatives for permanent magnets. In catalytic applications, molybdenum and aluminium are complements and nickel and tungsten together are substitutes. Nickel, vanadium, chromium or tungsten alloys may, in time, replace those containing cobalt as the binder in cemented carbides. Nickel may be substituted for cobalt in several applications but only with a loss of effectiveness.
88
Cobalt
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Exploitation of cobalt-bearing manganese nodules. Recovery of cobalt from tailings, dumps. Improved scrap recovery.
Use of cobalt alloy coatings on video recording tape and on computer diskettes.
Substitution of ceramic components for those currently fabricated from superalloys.
PRICES
Metal European Free Market 99.5% Co
1982
$/lb 8.2
Real 1987 price 8.42
Source: Metal Bulletin
1983
5.7
5.79
1984
10.35
10.38
1985
11.32
11.20
1986
7.0
7.2
1987
6.46
6.46
Mainly produced as a by-product of copper or nickel and output is relatively independent of supply/demand balance. Until 1981 prices were mainly producer contracts, but slack demand led to substantial discounting, and from 1982 the market was dominated by spot purchases at merchants' terms. Producers reasserted their control in early 1984 but it broke down again temporarily in 1986 before being restored in 1987. Political disturbances, especially in Africa, can have a dramatic effect on price.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
Zaire's Gecamines is the major producer and can strongly influence price and supply through varying production, even though by-product, and by stockpiling. In reality, oversupply in recent years has meant that movements in free market prices have tended to dominate pricing structures. USSR and Cuba are important producers and Canadian nickel producers make sizeable sales. Deep sea mining is a remote potential threat to market structure. Strategic metal importance. A Cobalt Development Institute promotes the use of cobalt and serves as an information centre for the metal.
89
Cobalt
COBALT Metal European Free Mkt. 99.5% co
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80~--------~------~~------~---------r------~
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
90
Cobalt
SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN MAIN MARKET AREAS
UK EC( 10) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Mine output Secondary recovery n/a n/a n/a 476 Primary metal 1307
(exc. UK (from imported & Belgian ores & matte processing from of imported Australia, materials) Philippines
& N Caledonia) Chemicals 1201
Net Imeorts (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Metal (unwrought) 1776 4057(a) 2203 6414 Oxide 450 713 238 172 Other forms n/a n/a n/a 614
(inc. matte)
Total all above forms (Co content) 2109 c. 5000 2379 6802 (a) Excludes Belgium-Luxembourg
Source of Net Imeorts (%)
Metal and Oxide All forms Canada 23 14 1 22 European Community 57 10 11 (mainly ex Zaire & Canada) Finland 3 10 2 5 Japan 1 3 Norway 1 5 7 12 S Africa 2 1 USA 3 6 2 Botswana 1 Zaire 3 43 65 18 Zambia 1 16 11 26 Others 9 3 1 1
(allowing for raw materials Zaire's overall share is c. 55%)
91
Cobalt
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Metal (unwrought) 535 273(a) 479 Oxides 516 225(a) 18 (a) Excludes Belgium-Luxembourg
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) All forms Co content c. 1100 c. 5000 c. 3650 6346
(metal (reported) 1687) 7499
(apparent)
Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption
(exc. scrap) 100 100 100 100 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports (exc. scrap) 100 100 100 100
Share of World Consumption (%) Western world (approx.) 5 25 18 35
Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s -0.5 0.2 0.7
92
COPPER
WORLD RESERVES (million tonnes of contained copper and% of total)
Developed
Australia Canada S Africa USA Others
Totals Grand Total
8 (2.4) 17 (5.0) 3 (0.9)
57 (16.9) 13 (3.9)
---98 (29.1)
Developing
Chile 79 (23.4) Mexico 17 (5.0) Papua New Guinea 6 (1.8) Peru 12 (3.6) Philippines 12 (3.6) Zaire 26 (7.7) Zambia 30 (8.9) Others _1Q~)
202 (59.9) 337
Centrally Planned
Poland USSR Others
7 (2.1) 24 {7.1) 6 {1.8)
37 {11.0)
The reserve base is 566 million tonnes. Total land based resources are estimated at 1,600 million tonnes with possibly another 700 million tonnes in deep sea nodules.
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION {'000 tonnes of contained copper and% of total 1985/86 Averages)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Australia 253 {3.0) Chile 1378 {16.4) Bulgaria 79 {0.9) Canada 741 (8.8) Indonesia 92 {1.1) China 200 (2.4) Finland 27 (0.3) Mexico 180 (2.1) Mongolia 138 {1.6) Japan 39 {0.5) Namibia 49 (0.6) Poland 434 (5.1) S Africa 204 (2.4) Papua New USSR 1030 {12.2) Spain 57 {0.7) Guinea 177 {2.1) Others 74 {0.9) Sweden 90 ( 1.1) Peru 394 (4.7) USA 1127 {13.4) Philippines 220 {2.6) Yugoslavia 117 (1.4) Zaire 502 {6.0) Others 51 {0.6) Zambia 512 {6.1)
---- Others 261 _fl..!l:J ----Totals 2706 {32.1) 3765 {44.7) 1955 {23.2) Grand Total 8426
93
Copper
WORLD REFINERY PRODUCTION ( 1000 tonnes metal and% of total 1985/86 Averages)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Australia 190 ( 1. 9) Brazil 134 (1.4) Albania 11 (0.1) Austria 33 (0.3) Chile 913 (9.3) Bulgaria 74 (0.8) Belgium 413 (4.2) Egypt 3 ( .. ) China 320 (3.3) Canada 497 (5.1) India 32 (0.3) Czecho-Finland 61 (0.6) Iran 12 (0.1) slovakia 26 (0.3) France 43 (0.4) S Korea 158 ( 1. 6) E Germany 71 (0. 7) W Germany 418 (4.3) Mexico 99 ( 1. 0) Hungary 23 (0.2) Italy 66 (0.7) Oman 14 (0.1) N Korea 39 (0.4) Japan 940 (9.6) Peru 226 (2.3) Poland 388 (4.0) Norway 31 (0.3) Philippines 134 ( 1.4) Romania 43 (0.4) Portuga 1 5 ( .. ) Taiwan 49 (0.5) USSR 1400 (14.3) S Africa 144 (1. 5) Zaire 223 (2.3) Spain 153 (1.6) Zambia 499 (5.1) Sweden 75 (0.8) Zimbabwe 24 (0.2) Turkey 68 (0.7) UK 126 ( 1. 3) USA 1458 (14.9) Yugoslavia 138 .J.hi) ----Totals 4859 (49.7) 2520 (25.8) 2395 (24.5) Grand Total 9774
The table includes metal refined from scrap.
94
WORLD MINE AND METAL CAPACITIES ('000 tonnes of metal)
Mine 1985 Refinery 1986 (a)
Developed Australia 258 205 Canada 969 600 Japan 62 1186 S Africa 221 136 USA 1288 1557 Others 421 1865
Total 3219 5549
Developing Chile 1339 885 Mexico 263 120 Papua New Guinea 167 Peru 422 360 Philippines 340 138 Zaire 628 310 Zambia 724 819 Others 593 640
Total 4476 3272
Centrally Planned China, N Korea & Mongolia 450 360 USSR 660 1100 Other E Europe 700 BOO
Total 1810 2260
TOTAL 9505 11081
(a) Effective capacity - excludes mines where no copper was produced.
SECONDARY PRODUCTION: WESTERN WORLD ('000 tonnes metal 1985/86 Averages)
European Community Japan USA Others
Total
Production of Secondary Refined
Copper
439 125 393 204
1161
Direct Scrap used by
Manufacturers
766 518 822 562
2668
Copper
95
Copper
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000:
CONSUMPTION OF REFINED METAL
40
2.6 1 (land based only)
'000 tonnes % p.a. growth rates 1985/86 Averages 1960-70 1970-80 1980-86
European Cormnunity 2249 2.3 1.3 -0.5 Japan 1225 10.4 4.9 0.9 USA 2039 4.3 2.0 Others 2029 4.9 5.0 -1.4 Tota 1 Western world 7542 4.3 2.3 1.4
Total world 9889 4.4 2.7 1.2
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (%)
USA (a) Japan w Europe
Electrical 23 44 52 Construction 41 21 24 General engineering 14 16 10 Transport 13 11 4 Mi see 11 aneous 10 7 10
Source: I WCC (a) Building wire etc included in construction rather than electrical
use.
VALUE OF CONTAINED METAL IN ANNUAL PRODUCTION
$17.3 billion (refined metal at 1987 average price).
SUBSTITUTES
Vulnerable to substitutes on price grounds, technical superiority, or weight both directly (eg: aluminium in electrical uses and car radiators, optical fibres in telecommunications or plastics in plumbing), or indirectly (eg: aluminium or plastics for brass). Miniaturisation of components is also important. Not all substitution is, however, one way: copper can hold its own in many major uses.
96
Copper
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Possible source in deep sea nodules in the next century. Expansion of in situ leaching, and electrochemical processing methods. Uses in solar energy and marine applications (ships' cladding and fish farming).
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
Electrol~tic wire bar
US Producer ¢/lb delivered 74.3 79.3 68.2 66.6 66.43 82.49 LME Cash (a) ¢/lb 67.2 72.3 62.5 64.9 62.35 80.11 (£/tonne) 846.4 1049.0 1032.7 1104.4 937.1 1067.90 LME Cash (¢/lb) Real 1987 price 68.96 73.4 62.1 64.2 4.01 80.11 LME Range £/tonne 740-911 940-1123 977-1270 951-1113 873-1027 869-1715
(a) Quotation covers cathode, higher grade.
Most copper is sold through annual supply contracts but producer pricing tends to operate in protected markets such as Japan, S Korea, Taiwan and India and in major producing nations like Australia, Canada and S Africa. US producers sell partly on a list basis. Elsewhere, prices are linked to LME, or to a lesser extent Comex, prices which fluctuate markedly. Even in other markets the LME price exerts a major influence.
Copper prices respond rapidly to changes in demand and stocks. They can also be sensitive to world financial and political events.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
Around 400 mines but far fewer companies. Over 50% of production is under state ownership or control.
CIPEC, a governmental organization - Chile, Peru, Zaire, Zambia, Indonesia with Papua New Guinea, Yugoslavia and Australia as associates - aims to coordinate measures to raise copper earnings, but largely ineffective to date in face of oversupply, structure of copper industry and internal conflicts of interest.
97
Copper
110
100
90
80
COPPER LME cash
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
m~------~--------~------~--------~-------, 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
98
Copper
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes Cu content) Mine 0.6 2.1 39.1 1126.5 Smelter 359.9 947.4 1194.6
of which Secondary 203.8 124.5 268.9 Refined 125.5 1064.8 939.5 1457.9
of which Secondary 62.4 222.2 123.9 Direct scrap used by
manufacturers 133 766 518 822 (exc. Denmark)
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes Cu content) Ores and concentrates 153.8 828.6 11.7 Blister 72.5 472.0 31.1 39.0 Refined 255.6 1283.7 314.3 436.4 Total 328.1 1909.5 1174.0 487.1
Source of Net Imports (%) Ores and Concentrates Norway 6 Canada 2 29 11 USA 13 S Africa 2 Australia 1 7 5 Botswana 47 Chile 12 11 Mexico 24 2 Peru 3 3 10 Indonesia 8 Malaysia 4 Philippines 10 Papua New Guinea 33 9 Poland 7 Others 11 2 17 Blister European Community 14 1 Canada 1 1 4 Sweden 6 S Africa (inc. Namibia) 9 12 3 Chile 25 11 6 64 Mexico 1 30 Peru 42 12 90 1 Zaire 49 Others 8 7 1
99
Copper
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Refined Australia 12 5 4 Canada 21 7 38 European Community 12 2 S Africa 1 6 3 2 Spain 5 4 Sweden 4 1 USA 2 1 4 Chile 17 31 16 35 Peru 10 7 8 10 Philippines 17 Zaire 11 7 Zambia 7 12 46 5 Zimbabwe 1 Poland 1 8 USSR 1 1 Others 6 6 3 1
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes Cu content) Ores and concentrates 0.6 0.9 0.3 145.3 Blister 0.6 0.5 9.3 17.0 Refined 14.8 90.4 55.9 32.7 Total 16.0 91.8 65.5 195.0
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes Cu content) Refined including secondary but not direct scrap 343.1 2249.3 1225.1 2038.8
Import Dependence (%) Imports as % of consumption 95 85 96 24 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports 91 82 91 22
Share of World Consumption (%)
Total refined: Western world 5 30 16 27 Total world 3 23 12 21
Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s -1.9 1.6 5.0 0.6
100
FLUORSPAR
WORLD RESERVES (million tonnes contained fluorspar and% of total)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
France 6 (2. 7) Kenya 2 (0.9) China 17 (7.6) Italy 6 (2. 7) Mexico 20 (9.0) Mongolia 50 (22.4) S Africa 29 (13.0) Morocco 1 (0.4) USSR 62 (27.8) Spain 6 (2. 7) Thailand 1 (0.4) Others 12 (5.4) UK 2 (0.9) Tunisia 1 (0.4) USA 1 (0.4) Others 4 (1.8) Others 3 (1.3) --- ---Totals 53 (23.8) 29 (13.0) 141 (63.2) Grand Total 223
Pure fluorspar, CaF2, contains 51% calcium and 49% fluoride. Three principal grades are available commercially; acid grade with 97%+ CaF2; ceramic grade 85-96% CaF2; and metallurgical grade 60%+ CaF2. The above reserve figures refer to 100% CaF2 equivalent. On the same basis, the reserve base is 305 million tonnes.
In addition fluorspar is extracted from phosphate rock. Total world reserves are estimated at 330 million tonnes of fluorspar equivalent.
101
Fluorspar
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION 1 1985/86 1 and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY 1 1985 ('000 tonnes gross weight and% of production)
Mine Production Acid & Metallurgical Total % of Capacity Ceramic Grade Grade Production
DeveloQed France 160 75 235 (4.9) 290 W Germany 74 10 84 (1. 7) 100 Italy 93 56 149 (3.1) 180 S Africa 313 32 341 (7.1) 680 Spain 265 34 303 (6.3) 320 UK 65 85 150 (3.1) 345 USA 65 65 ( 1.4) 73 Others 7 7 (0.1) n/a
Total 1035 299 1334 (27.7) 1988
DeveloQing Argentina 7 18 25 (0.5) 36 Braz i 1 43 30 73 ( 1. 5) 73 India 11 5 16 (0.3) 27 Kenya 54 54 (1.1) 90 Mexico 422 326 748 (15.6) 1100 Morocco 78 78 ( 1. 6) 73 Thailand 23 210 233 (4.8) 270 Tunisia 39 39 (0.8) 45 Others 4 4 (0.1) n/a
Total 677 593 1270 (26.4) 1714
Centrall~ Planned China 100 550 650 (13.5) 545 Czechos 1 ov ak i a 48 48 96 (2.0) 100 E Germany 25 75 100 (2.1) 100 Mongolia 740 740 {15.4) 725 N Korea 40 40 (0.8) 45 Romania 20 20 (0.4) 27 USSR 270 290 560 (11.6) 545
Total 443 1763 2206 (45.9) 2087
TOTAL 2155 2655 4810 5789
Note: The split between production of acid and metallurgical grade is partly estimated.
102
Fluorspar
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years) Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000:
Fluorine in fluorspar: 57
3. 7 : 1 Fluorine in fluorspar:
CONSUMPTION
1985/86 Averages '000 tonnes
European Community Japan United States (apparent)
868 549 569
Reported US consumption is 520,000 tonnes.
END USE PATTERNS, 1986 (%)
Steel production Primary aluminium production) Chemicals ) Glass, enamel and other uses
USA
22* 73
5
* Higher proportion in many other countries.
VALUE OF ANNUAL PRODUCTION
$0.6 billion (at average 1987 prices).
SUBSTITUTES
% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86
-0.4 -0.5 -2.5
Japan
37 11 16 36
0.2 5.1
-9.2
Some substitution possible in steelmaking but rarely totally satisfactory.
Gaseous hydrocarbons and carbon dioxide in aerosol propellants.
103
Fluorspar
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Conservation in the steel industry, recycling, changing technology in the aluminium industry and environmental concern over fluorocarbons in propellants are reducing demand. Developments in industrial and medical applications will only partly offset these reductions.
Further exploration of phosphate rock as source of fluorspar in the USA.
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
US prices, fob Illinois $/net ton
Metallurgical pellets 70% CaF2 110 133 125 125 125 125 Ceramic grade, 88-90% CaF2 100 100 100 100 100 100 Acid grade, 97% CaF2 184.4 184.3 174.75 173 173 173 Acid grade Real 1987 price 189.2 187.1 173.6 171.2 177.6 173
Mainly producer pricing.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
Although there are a large number of small firms participating in fluorspar mining, world production is dominated by large companies (eg: eight companies account for most of the Mexican production; PUK dominates French output).
104
Fluorspar
FWORSPAR Acid Grade 97% CaF2
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
110
105 rea/7987 - _ terrns --~----~'
money terms '~
100
95
90~--------~------~~------~--------~------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
105
Fluorspar
SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) (•ooo tonnes) Gross 150 618 65 Fluorspar equivalent from
phosphate rock 119
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (•ooo tonnes) Acid grade more than 97% CaF2 15.9 111.4 549 391 Met grade less than 97% CaF2 3.4 184.6 111 Fluorspar equivalent from
hydrofluoric acid & cryolite 174
Source of Net Imports (%)
Acid Grade All Grades European Community 2 S Africa 39 14 42 Spain 15 7 China 63 E Germany 4 Kenya 9 1 Mexico 9 7 43 Morocco 16 4 Thailand 15 Others and undefined 8 1
Other grades European Community 7 S Africa 15 Spain 25 China 16 7 E Germany 1 Mexico 93 6 92 Tunisia 5 Others and undefined 32 1
106
Fluorspar
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (•ooo tonnes) Acid grade 6.1 17.2 n/a 7.4 Other grades 0.2 12.1 n/a Total 6.3 29.3 7.4
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (•ooo tonnes) Acid grade 393 Other grades 127
All forms (inc. hydrofluoric acid, etc) 163 868 549 569
(apparent) (apparent) (apparent)
Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption 12 34 100 88 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports 11 32 100 86
Share of World Consumption (%)
Total world 3 18 11 12
Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s 0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -2.5
107
GALLIUM
WORLD RESERVES
Most gallium is recovered as a by-product of the extraction of alumina from bauxite, with recovery from the smelting of zinc ores as the second major source. Gallium's nature as a by-product, and the protective patents covering the recovery process prevent any precise measurement of reserves. Nonetheless the world's bauxite reserves are estimated to contain over 100,000 tonnes of gallium, and zinc resources 6,500 tonnes. Only a small percentage though is economically recoverable.
WORLD PRODUCTION
Estimated world production of both primary and recovered gallium averaged some 40 tonnes in 1985/86. Recycled gallium makes up about one-third of total supply. Detailed production data are not available but Japan is the largest world producer with total output in 1986 estimated at 19 tonnes. Other major producers are France and Germany (production capacity of 15 tonnes + 5 tonnes respectively), the USA and Canada (production capacity of 9 tonnes + 5 tonnes respectively each although output currently negligible), plus China (production capacity 8 tonnes) and Hungary (production capacity 3 tonnes). A number of countries are in the process of expanding production capacity, and total output is growing rapidly (primary output alone of 50 tonnes in 1987).
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Very large because of substantial resources of bauxite and zinc. Any supply bottleneck would be caused by the available processing capability.
CONSUMPTION
1985/86 Averages % p.a. growth rates (kilograms) 1970s 1980-86
European Community n/a n/a n/a Japan 34000 n/a n/a United States 11718 21.4 10.5
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (USA) (%)
Electronics (including light emitting diodes and semiconductors) 93
Research and development 7 Others
108
Gallium
VALUE OF CONTAINED METAL IN ANNUAL PRODUCTION
$21 million approximately (at average 1987 prices).
SUBSTITUTES
Liquid crystals made from organic compounds are used in visual display panels as substitutes for light emitting diodes. Silicon and germanium compete with gallium in many semiconductor applications.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Gallium could be recovered from coal ash and coal, and extracted from polymetallic ores by leaching.
Increasing use in gallium based electronic devices and in equipment converting solar energy to electricity.
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986
US Metal $/kg 630 525 525 525 525
US Metal Real 1987 price 647 533 522 520 539
Prices are listed by producers, but discounting is common.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
1987
525
525
Only a handful of companies extract ga 11 i um in the main metals processing countries.
109
Gallium
125
120
115
110
105
100
GALLIUM US metal
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
'----/
95~--------r--------r--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
110
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
Production (1985/86 Averages) (kg) Primary Recycled
(a) 1986 only
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (kg) (a) Gallium, thallium and indium
Source of Net Imports (%) Canada China European Community Switzerland USA Hungary Others
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (kg) (a) Gallium, thallium and indium
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (kg)
Import Dependence (%) Imports as % of consumption Imports as % of consumption
and net exports
Share of World Consumption (%) Total world
Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s
UK
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
111
EC ( 10)
n/a n/a
40500 (a)
2 6
75 2
14
260000 (a)
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Japan
10000 9500
n/a
34000
n/a
n/a
c. 60
n/a
Gallium
USA
750 (a) n/a
12582
57 39
3
n/a
11718
100
n/a
c. 21
21.4
GERMANIUM
WORLD RESERVES
Germanium is obtained as a by-product of zinc or copper-zinc ores. No reliable data are available for the reserves of large tracts of the world. The US Bureau of Mines estimates the combined reserves of Canada, the United States, Europe and Africa at 2,150 tonnes, with substantial reserves also available in Centrally Planned economies.
Very large potential resources are contained in certain coals, and germanium might be recovered from ash and flue dusts.
WORLD PRODUCTION
Because of its by-product nature no data are available for mine production of germanium, but refinery production is estimated as follows:
(tonnes of contained germanium and % of total 1985/86 Averages)
Developed
Austria European Community Japan USA Totals
5 (6)
27 (34} 10 ( 12) .IT _ill_) 64 ( 79)
Centrally Planned
Total 17 (21)
17 (21)
EC: Belgium, France, Germany and Italy in that order.
Refinery capacity is 245 tonnes, 50% of which is in W Europe.
Total
80
Data are not available on output from Zaire, one of the main sources of ore.
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): large Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000: large
112
CONSUMPTION
1985/86 Averages '000 tonnes
European Community Japan United States
(a) Metal and oxide.
31 18.5 (a) 38
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (USA) (%)
Infra-red systems Fibre optics Semiconductors Detectors Others
VALUE OF CONTAINED METAL
$85 million (at average 1987 prices).
SUBSTITUTES
65 12
5 5
13
Germanium
% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86
n/a 2.1 4.0
n/a n/a 2.9
Silicon has replaced germanium in some electronic applications but not in high-frequency or high-power applications. In infra-red guidance systems zinc selenide or germanium glass can substitute for germanium metal but at the expense of performance.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Substitute materials could become available for fibre optic applications. Development of superior alternative in some electronic or electrical uses. Recovery from coal ash and flue dusts.
113
Germanium
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
$/kg
US Producer 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060
US Producer Real 1987 prices 1088 1076 1053 1049 1088 1060
By-product of zinc, and certain copper-zinc ores, extracted in refining. Mainly producer priced with small dealer market.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
Belgium refines germanium from Zairois ores. There are relatively few producers and consumers. Commercial availability is governed by rate at which germanium-bearing materials are processed and refined. There is some speculative activity.
114
104
102
GERMANIUM US producer
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
1\ I \
I \ I \
I \ I \
I \
Germanium
I \ I \\
100-+------...... ~,-----~~ ..... -----....a money terms
\ I \-... I ------1
98
96~------~--------~------~--------r-------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
115
Germanium
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK
Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Mine Refinery c.
Net ImEorts (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Metal 10.5
+ large imports of germanium products
(a) Exc. Belgium-Luxembourg
Source of Net ImEorts (%) European Community Japan USA China Costa Rica USSR Others
Net ExEorts (1985/86 Averages)
80
20
(tonnes) 4.5 Metal
(a) Exc. Belgium-Luxembourg
ConsumEtion (1985/86 Averages)
EC(10)
27
9 (a)
11 56 28
5
5.5 (a)
Japan
9.55
2.9
3
3 80
14
(tonnes) 6 31 (a) 18.5 (apparent) (apparent) (inc. oxide)
(a) Partly for germanium compounds for export)
ImEort DeEendence
USA
n/a 22
10.5
37
49 5
9
n/a
38
Imports as % of consumption 100 29 22 28 (nearer 100 if
allowance made for raw materials)
Imports as % of consumption and net exports 100 25 22 n/a
Share of World ConsumEtion (%) Total world n/a n/a n/a n/a
ConsumEtipn Growth (% p.a.) 1970s n/a n/a 2.1 4.0
116
GOLD
WORLD RESERVES (tonnes of metal and% of total)
Developed Developing
Australia 715 (1.8) Brazil 715 (1.8) Canada 1305 (3.3) Ghana 220 (0.5) Japan 310 (0.8) Philippines 560 ( 1.4) S Africa 23640 (59.4) Zimbabwe 310 (0.8) USA 2490 (6.2) Other America 1460 (3. 7) Europe 250 (0.6) Other Africa 310 (0.8)
Pacific 780 ( 1.9) Other Asia 310 ..JQ.J!) ----
Totals 28710 (72.1) 4665 (11.7) Grand Total 39815
Centrally Planned
USSR Others
6220 (15.6) 220 (0.6)
6440 (16.2)
The estimated reserve base is 46345 tonnes, with resources estimated at 74,650 tonnes. These figures should be treated with caution as exploitation of gold deposits is heavily price-dependent. In addition above ground stocks of previously mined gold, held by both central banks and privately, are substantial.
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION (tonnes of metal and % of tot a 1 1985/86 Averages)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Australia 66.8 (4.2) Brazil 69.9 (4.4) China 63.0 (3.9) Canada 98.8 (6.2) Chile 18.7 ( 1. 2) N Korea 5.0 (0.3) Japan 11.5 (0.7) Colombia 26.8 (1. 7) USSR 273.0 (17.1) S Africa 656.5 (41.0) Dominican R 9.8 (0.6) Others 2.5 (0.2) Spain 4.4 (0.3) Ghana 11.8 (0. 7) USA 93.8 (5.9) Mexico 8.2 (0.5) Yugoslavia 4.4 (0.3) P New Guinea 33.7 (2.1) Others 7.7 (0.5) Peru 10.9 (0.7)
Philippines 38.6 (2.4) Venezuala 13.5 (0.8) Zimbabwe 14.8 (0.9) Others 56.8~) ---- ----
Totals 943.9 (59.0) 313.5 (19.6) 343.5 (21.5) Grand Total 1600.9
117
Gold
PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985 (Major Producers) (tonnes of metal}
Developed Developing
Australia (a) 120 Brazil Canada 95 S Africa 720 USA 85 Totals 1020
(a) Includes Papua New Guinea
Centrally Planned
75 USSR 285
75 285
The combined capacity of all other gold-producing nations amounts to 285 tonnes, giving a total world gold mine production capacity of 1665 tonnes.
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Based on demand for fabricated gold - i.e. excluding monetary and 'investment' uses. World bullion stocks are ignored. These will make up any shortfalls between mined output and demand.
Static reserve life (years): Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000:
25
2.5 : 1
OVERALL BALANCES OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN THE WESTERN WORLD
(tonnes) 1984
Mine Production 1160 Net Trade with Centrally Planned Economics 205 Net Official Sales 85 Net Official Purchases Scrap 284
Available Supplies 1734 Fabricated gold in Developed Countries 845 Fabricated gold in Less Developed Countries 619 Bullion Holdings (excluding Europe and N America) 332
Net Implied Investment {disinvestment) in Europe and N America (62}
Source: Consolidated Goldfields
118
1985 1986
1233 1281 210 402
135 181 299 465
1607 1967 841 1072 626 594
310 220
(170) 81
INDUSTRIAL USAGE OF GOLD IN THE WESTERN WORLD (excludes coins)
Jewellery Electronics Dentistry Other industrial and
decorative uses
Total of which:
European Community Japan United States Other countries
(a) Including scrap (b) Excluding scrap
1985/86 Averages tonnes
1112 (a) 119 52
50
1333
377 146 163 647
Source: Consolidated Goldfields
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (%)
Jewellery Electronics Dentistry Other industrial and
decorative uses Coins and small items
for investment
USA
47 20 6
11
15
% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86
-4.1 (b) 13.9 (a) 0.6 4.4 4.5 -3.9
2.2 -1.4
-4.2 10.7
-1.0 7.0 2.2 14.1
-2.6 2.8 -8.1 15.5
Japan EEC Other Western Countries
30 84 83 21 6 1 5 5 1
5 3 1
39* 1 13
* Abnormally high percentage due to issue of special coin to commemorate 60th anniversary of accession to the imperial throne of Japan of Emperor Hirohito.
Source: Consolidated Goldfields
VALUE OF CONTAINED METAL IN ANNUAL PRODUCTION
$21 billion (at average 1987 prices).
119
coins)
Gold
SUBSTITUTES
Platinum and palladium substitute to some extent but use is influenced by price relationships and established consumer preference for gold. Silver can substitute but is more subject to corrosion. Gold-plated palladium and bright tin-nickel can be used in electronics. Titanium- and chromium-base alloys can be used in dental work.
High prices in 1979-1981 encouraged substitutes, particularly base metals clad with gold alloy in electronics/electrical industry and in jewellery products. No metal or alloy substitute has all gold's properties, and emphasis is on reduction of gold content rather than substitution.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
New gold dissolution methods and better media for solvent or resin extraction could improve production technology and utilisation of lower grade sources.
PRICES
London fixing am $/troy oz
Real 1987 price
1982 1983
375.9 424.5
385.8 430.9
1984 1985 1986
360.5 317.4 367.8
358.2 314.2 377.6
1987
414.2
414.2
Above ground stocks of gold are very high and willingness to add to or release from these stocks determines the state of the market. Prices can be heavily influenced by emotion with consequent irrational behaviour.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
S Africa and USSR produce more than 75% of world's output and at times are thought to cooperate to maintain world prices. The state of Russian economy tends to dictate its sales and IMF auctions plus selling from Central Bank stockpiles have in the past supplemented supply. Speculative activity, particularly in response to political tension, has in the past transformed the market in very short time. Demand for investment related to inflationary expectations, or level of real interest rates, and exchange rates.
120
GOLD London AM fixing price
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
110
100
90
80
m~------~--------~------~--------~------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
121
coins)
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Mine production Metal (inc. scrap)
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Ores and concentrates Unwrought metal (inc. semi-
manufactures)
Waste and scrap
Unwrought refined bullion
UK
n/a
1.5
40
162.5
(for monetary purposes) 405 Data exclude gold imported in foreign coins.
Source of Net Imports (%)
A 11 forms (a) Australia Canada European Community S Africa Sweden Switzerland United States USSR Bolivia Brazi 1 Chile Dominican Republic Hong Kong Papa New Guinua Phil ilppines Singapore Uruguay Venezuela Others (including secret)
2 10 46
8 2 9
7
6
1
9
EC(lO)
2.6 n/a
n/a
427
1
31
35 16 4
3 4
6
Japan
11.5 46.5
USA
93.8 119
n/a 1.16
402 313.55
6 2
22 7
26 29
6
2
(refined bullion 58.16
(inc. dore & precipitates)
1 48 13 1
17
2 1 2 3 3
8 1 2
(a) UK figures exclude unwrought refined bullion transactions.
122
coins)
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes)
UK
Unwrought metal 8 Wrought metal Waste and scrap 14
EC{lO)
68 4 4
Japan
0.2 4.9
Gold
USA
94.3
39.1 Note: In addition, the UK exported 447.5 bullion used for monetary purposes.
tonnes of unwrought refined
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Reported figures
Consolidated Goldfields' figures
n/a n/a
26 377
238 92.9 (includes (industry
investment) & the arts)
146 163 (includes Ireland)
Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption Imports as % of consumption
and net exports
Share of World Consumption (%) (based on Consolidated Goldfields' figures) Western world
Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s on reported figures
1970s on Consolidated Goldfields' figures
Because of gold's monetary role, its use as an investment medium, and the small share of newly mined output in total supply, import shares mean very little.
2 28
+0.2 -1.0
123
11
6.6
2.2
12
-5.3 (industry
& the arts)
-2.6
INDIUM
WORLD RESERVES
Indium is recovered principally as a by-product of processing zinc ores but it is also present in some copper, lead and tungsten ores. Precise data on reserves are unavailable as the distribution of indium in zinc ores varies considerably but, based on zinc reserves, total indium reserves are about 1700 tonnes. On the same basis, the reserve base is 3000 tonnes.
WORLD PRODUCTION
Indium is recovered mostly from the dusts at lead and zinc smelters, and from the purification of zinc sulphate. Estimated Western world refinery production in 1985/86 was about 80 tonnes (75 tonnes in 1985 and 85 tonnes in 1986), mainly from the USA, Canada, Japan, Peru, France, Belgium, W Germany and UK. Mexico, the Netherlands and N Korea also refined smaller amounts. Indium bearing concentrates are mined in the USA, Canada, Australia, Sweden, Ireland, Peru, China and the USSR. The USSR and China also produce refined indium. World refinery capacity is estimated to be around 180 tonnes, mainly in Europe, N America and Japan.
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): Ratio of reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000:
CONSUMPTION
22
c. 1 1
1985/86 Averages tonnes
European Community Japan United States
VALUE OF ANNUAL PRODUCTION
n/a 22.5
c. 20
$17.5 million (at average 1987 prices).
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (USA) (%)
Electrical and electronic components 40 Solders, alloys and coatings 40 Research and other uses 20
124
% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86
n/a n/a 1.7
n/a 12.5 2.6
Indium
SUBSTITUTES
Substitutes exist for most end uses of indium. Silicon has tended to replace germanium-indium in transistors. Gallium can substitute in some alloys, although at greater cost, and boron carbide and hafnium can be used in nuclear reactor control rods.
Relative cost is important in determining whether substitution occurs.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Uses in solar cells in semiconductors and in indium-tin coatings for flat glass. Potential large scale use in lasers for telecommunications and consumer electronics products.
PRICES
1982
US Producer (Indium Corp) US$/troy ounce 4.10
Real 1987 price 4.21
1983
3.13
3.18
1984
3.11
3.09
1985
2.60
2.57
1986
2.66
2.73
1987
6.83
6.83
Supply is relatively independent of demand in that it depends on the output of zinc. A producer price coexists with a dealer market.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
The world's refining facilities are limited as only a few zinc smelters recover indium as a by-product.
Output depends on the type of zinc ore processed.
125
Indium
INDIUM US producer
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30~--------~--------~------~---------r--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
126
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes)
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Unwrought waste and scrap
Source of Net Imports (%) Canada European Community USA Peru China Others
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages)
UK
n/a
n/a
( tonnes) n/ a
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) n/a
Import Dependence (%) Imports as % of consumption Imports as % of consumption
and net exports
n/a
n/a
(a) Based on production and consumption.
Share of World Consumption (%) Total world n/a
Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s n/a
127
EC(10)
n/a
inc. with gallium
inc. with gallium
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Japan
17
14.9
2 30 35
33
22.5
25(a)
25(a)
28
n/a
Indium
USA
n/a
36.0
2 72
7 15 3
n/a
20
n/a
n/a
25
1.7
INDUSTRIAL DIAMONDS
WORLD RESERVES (million carats and% of total)
Developed
Australia S Africa
Totals Grand Total
500 (51.0) 70 (7.1)
---570 (58.1)
Developing
Botswana 125 (12.8) Ghana 15 ( 1. 5) Zaire 150 (15.3) Others _lQ~)
320 (32.7) 980
Centrally Planned
China 10 ( 1. 0) USSR 80 (8.2)
---90 (9.2)
Approximately 40% of these reserves are in the form of crushing bort with the balance industrial stones. The world reserve base is 1900 million carats mainly in Australia, Botswana, S Africa, Zaire and the USSR. Synthetic industrial diamonds supplement reserves.
128
Industrial Diamonds
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION, 1985/86, and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985 {'000 carats and% of total)
Mine % of Productive Capacity Production Production Stone Grit/Powder
Developed Australia 9447 (20.9) 3000 1500 S Africa 5659 (12.5) 6500 650
Total 15106 (33.4) 9500 2150
Developing Angola 130 {0.3) 400 40 Botswana 4909 {10.8) 6600 700 Brazil 234 {0.5) 1350 Central African Rep. 105 {0.2) 100 10 Ghana 563 (1. 2) 600 50 Guinea 12 ( .. ~ 100 10 Guyana 7 ( .. 10 India 2 ( .. ) 5 Indonesia 22 ( .. ) 25 Ivory Coast 6{a) ( .. ) n/a n/a Swaziland 18 ( .. ) n/a n/a Liberia 131 (0.3) 250 25 Namibia 48 {0.1) 100 Sierra Leone 103 {0.2) 100 18 Tanzania 90 {0.2) 120 15 Venezuela 188 (0.4) 600 Zaire 16384 (36.2) 2000 17000
Total 22952 (50.7) 12360 17868
Centrall~ Planned China 800 {1.8) 1100 600 USSR 6400 (14.1) 7500 4000
Total 7200 {15.9) 8600 4600
TOTAL 45258 30460 24618
(a) 1986 only
This table does not include illicit production in some developing countries. For most countries the breakdown between gems and industrial stones has been estimated by the US Bureau of Mines. Apart from the natural diamond covered by the table, almost 190 million carats of synthetic diamonds were produced in the entire world, with 78 million in the United States.
129
Industrial Diamonds
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000:
CONSUMPTION
22
Under 1, but this excludes synthetic diamond and other resources
1985/86 Averages '000 carats
% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86
European Community Japan United States
n/a 47500 71450
n/a 13.9 7.4
n/a 12.8 12.4
The table includes both natural and synthetic diamonds. Total Western world consumption of industrial diamonds (natural and synthetic) averaged some 160 mi 11 ion carats.
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (USA) (%)
Machinery Abrasives Transport equipment Contract construction Stone and ceramic products Mineral services*
(drilling bits, etc) Other
27 16 6
13 17
18 3
* But accounts for 66% of consumption of industrial diamond stones.
VALUE OF ANNUAL PRODUCTION
$100 million (at average US import value of 1987 for stones and grit; powders etc) Natural stones only.
SUBSTITUTES
Most substitutes, natural, corundum, and manufactured of fused aluminium oxide, are not as efficient or as adaptable. New abrasive materials are being brought into operation and of these cubic boron nitride seems the most promising.
130
Industrial Diamonds
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Further development of intermediate and large size industrial synthetic stones, suitable for all uses now served by natural stones.
Potential for increased markets in drilling, with replacement of conventional bits with diamond bits, in construction (diamond saws and core drills), and for diamond abrasives in the stone, glass and clay industries.
Possible new uses in electronic and electrical applications; in surgical tools and equipment; and, through electroplated metal on diamond surfaces, for bearings and protective coatings.
PRICES AND MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
US Import values
Industrial diamond stones $/carat 12.60 9.98 8.03 8.52 7.23 11.45
Stones Real 1987 price 12.95 10.13 7.96 8.49 7.42 11.45
Bort/powder/dust $/carat 1.90 1.49 1.33 1.27 1.25 1.21
Most diamond mines produce stones of gem quality and for industrial use and industrial supply is controlled to a large extent by gem demand. De Beers Central Selling Organisation (CSO) controls the bulk of the world's sales of diamonds of all types. Australia markets part of its production independently. Prices vary according to size and grade; the table gives merely a crude indication.
131
Industrial Diamonds
INDUSTRIAL DIAMONDS US import value stones $/carat
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
120
110
100
90
80
70
60~--------~--------.-------~---------r--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
132
Industrial Diamonds
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
Production (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 carats) Natural Synthetic Secondary
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 carats) Natural Synthetic
Source of Net Imports (%)
Natura 1
Canada European Community S Africa Switzer 1 and United States Congo Zaire Others
Synthetic European Community Finland Japan Switzerland United States Others
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 carats) Natural and Synthetic
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 carats) Natural and Synthetic
UK EC(10)
n/a n/a
Japan
c. 10000
USA
78000 1750
Full figures are 727 16184 not available 37950 29602
n/a
Details are not
available
Details are not
available
n/a
n/a
133
(inc. dust & powder)
11 42
17 4
19 6
65
1 33 1
47
47500
8 46 27 4
5 10
84
12 1
3
54850
71450
Industrial Diamonds
UK EC Japan USA
Im~ort De~endence (%) Imports as % of consumption n/a n/a 81 100
(all types) (stones) 46
(other) Imports as % of consumption
and net exports n/a n/a 81 100 (all types) (stones)
25 (other)
Share of World Consum~tion (%) Western world (approx.) all forms n/a n/a 30
Consum~tion Growth (% p.a.) 1970s n/a n/a 13.9 7.4
(all types) (all types)
134
IRON ORE
WORLD RESERVES ('000 million tonnes of contained iron and% of total)
Developed Developing
Australia 9.2 (14.0) Brazil 9.8 (14.9) Canada 4.1 (6.2) India 4.4 (6.7) France 0.8 ( 1. 2) Liberia 0.5 (0.8) S Africa 2.6 (4.0) Venezuela 1.1 (1. 7) Sweden 1.5 (2.3) Other America 0.6 (0.9) USA 3.4 (5.2) Other Africa 0.5 (0.8) Others __Q_J_ __1.!_:_!_) Others ~~) Totals 22.3 (34.0) 17.5 (26.6) Grand Total 65.7
Centrally Planned
China USSR
3.2 (4.9) 22.7 (34.5)
25.9 (39.4)
World reserves amount to some 137,000 million tonnes of crude ore. The estimated reserve base is 89,000 million tonnes of contained iron (190,000 million tonnes of crude ore) and resources exceed 800,000 million tonnes of crude ore with an iron content of over 235,000 million tonnes.
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION (million tonnes of contained iron and% of total 1985/86 Averages)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Australia 57.6 (11.6) Algeria 1.7 (0.3) China 42.3 (8.5) Canada 23.7 (4.8) Brazil 86.7 (17.4) N Korea 3.2 (0.6) France 4.2 (0.8) Chile 3.9 (0.8) USSR 136.6 (27.4) New Zealand 1.4 (0.3) India 28.3 ( 5. 7) Others 2.0 (0.4) Norway 2.3 (0.5) Liberia 9.4 ( 1. 9) S Africa 15.3 (3.1) Mauritania 4.6 (0.9) Spain 3.0 (0.6) Mexico 5.0 ( 1. O) Sweden 13.5 ( 2. 7) Peru 3.4 (0. 7) Turkey 2.0 (0.4) Venezuela 10.9 (2.2) USA 28.5 ( 5. 7) Others 3.6 (0. 7) Yugoslavia 1.9 (0.4) Others ____hQ~) ----- ----Totals 156.4 (31.4) 157.5 (31.6) 184.1 (37.0) Grand Total 498.0
135
Iron Ore
The gross production of ore from which the above totals were derived averaged 857 million tonnes. The average grade of ore mined was thus 58.1%. Average% grades were as follows in 1986 in the leading producing countries:
Australia 63 S Africa Brazil 68 Sweden Canada 62 USA China 50 USSR India 63 Venezuela Liberia 62
PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY! 1985 {Major ~roducers} (million tonnes of contained iron)
Developed Developing
Australia 78 Brazil 100 Canada 32 India 33 France 8 Liberia 14 New Zealand 3 Mexico 7 S Africa 23 Venezuela 16 Sweden 14 Others 33 USA 60 Others 12 Totals 230 203
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): 132 Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000: 9 : 1
CONSUMPTION
European Community Japan United States
1985/86 Averages million tonnes Fe content
70 81 43
136
63 66 64 55 62
Centrally Plan ned Total
China 42 USSR 167 Others 7
216 649
% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86
-0.1 7
-1.9
-3.2 -1.8 -8.2
Iron Ore
END USE PATTERN 1986 (USA) (%)
Blast furnaces 84 Sintering plants 13 Steel furnaces, DRI + other
steel functions 1 Cement production, heavy media
materials and others 2
VALUE OF CONTAINED METAL IN ANNUAL PRODUCTION
$17 billion (at 1987 average prices).
SUBSTITUTES
No substitutes although increasing quantities of scrap are used in steelmaking.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Increasing use of direct reduction process is expected to lead to higher steel production in developing countries. Development of coal based processes for induration and direct smelting of ore would also increase efficiency.
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
$/tonne
Brazil 65% Fe cif North Sea Ports
Brazil 65% Fe Real 1987 price
26.21 23.97
26.9 24.3
23.11 22.66 21.89 22.23
22.9 22.6 22.5 22.2
Most prices are fixed annually under long term sales contracts although the spot market became more important during the recession-hit 1980s. Price is influenced by supply/demand conditions in the steel industry prevailing at time of renegotiation and tends to lag behind economic activity. Freight is a major component of price. Wide price ranges depending on grade and nature of product. Two reference prices tend to dominate the industry: the delivered price of Brazilian ore to W Europe and of Australian ore to Japan.
137
Iron Ore
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
It is estimated that under 25 countries control almost 80% of world trade and 70% of world production is from government-controlled companies. Captive relationships, where steel companies own and operate iron ore mines, are important in US, Canada and Australia especially. Low grade producers of N America have found competition increasingly difficult with higher grade producers in Australia and Brazil. The latter countries dominate the market but have divergent interests and objectives which reduce the prospect of any agreement to secure higher prices.
138
130
120
110
100
IRON ORE Brazilian 65% Fe cif North Sea Ports
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
\
',~ ..... \~
"3 \ '(Q 0 -~ \'? :z.. (fl
~ \ ~ \
\
'
Iron Ore
90~--------r--------r--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
139
Iron Ore
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) (million tonnes) 0.28 16.82 0.31 44.49 Fe content 0.06 5.46 0.20 28.54
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (mill ion tonnes) 14.98 116.0 119.9 16.52 Fe content approx. 9.3 74.2 76.7 10.6 roasted iron pyrites 0.25 0.33
Source of Net Imports (%) Australia 19 14 42 Canada 35 13 2 53 Norway 8 3 S Africa 7 3 5 Spain 2 2 Sweden 3 10 Brazil 15 30 23 19 Chile 4 1 India 1 17 Liberia 10 11 Mauritania 2 7 Philippines 3 Venezuela 8 5 13 Others 1 2 4 2
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (million tonnes) 4.83 roasted iron pyrites 0.07
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (million tonnes) 14.7 123.2 127.3 66.9 Fe content approx. 9 70 81 42.8
Import Dependence (Fe content) Imports as % of consumption 100 94 100 25 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports 100 94 100 23
Share of World Consumption (%) Total world (approx.) 2 14 14 7
Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s -2.2 -0.1 7.0 -1.9
140
LEAD
WORLD RESERVES (million tonnes of metal and % of total)
Developed
Australia Canada S Africa Spain Sweden USA Yugoslavia Others Totals Grand Total
16 (16.7) 12 (12.5) 4 (4.2) 2 (2.1) 2 (2.1)
21 (21.9) 4 (4.2)
___i~)
65 (67.7)
Developing
India Mexico Morocco Peru Other
96
2 (2.1) 3 (3.1) 2 (2.1) 2 (2.1) 3 (3.1)
12 (12.5)
The reserve base is estimated at 142 million tonnes.
Centrally Planned
Bulgaria 3 (3.1) China 2 (2.1) Poland 2 (2.1) USSR 12 (12.5)
19 (19.8)
Total world resources are estimated at 1.4 billion tonnes.
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION ('000 tonnes of contained metal and% of total 1985/86 Averages)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Australia 466.3 (13.5) Argentina 28.6 (0.8) Bulgaria 97.0 (2.8) Canada 317.0 (9.2) Bolivia 4.7 (0.1) China 180.0 (5.2) W Germany 24.3 (0.7) Brazil 17.0 (0.5) Czecho-Greece 20.5 (0.6) Honduras 16.3 (0.5) slovakia 3.0 (0.1) Greenland 17.0 (0.5) India 25.5 (0.7) N Korea 82.5 (2.4) Ireland 35.5 (1.0) Iran 20.8 (0.6) Poland 46.9 (1.4) Italy 13.4 (0.4) Mexico 192.3 (5.5) Romania 34.5 (1.0) Japan 45.2 (1.3) Morocco 89.3 (2.6) USSR 565.0 (16.4) S Africa 98.1 (2.8) Namibia 42.9 (1. 2) Spain 84.5 (2.4) Peru 198.0 (5.7) Sweden 82.5 (2.4) S Korea 10.2 (0.3) USA 388.8 (11.3) Thailand 33.4 ( 1. 0) Yugoslavia 116.0 (3.4) Zambia 7.7 (0.2) Others 26. 5 __{Q_&) Others 18.5 ~) Totals 1735.5 (50.3) 705.2 (20.4) 1008.9 (29.2) Grand Total 3449.6
141
WORLD SMELTER PRODUCTION FROM ORES AND BULLION ('000 tonnes and% of total 1985/86 Averages)
Developed Developing
Australia 176 (5.3) Argentina 17 (0.5) Austria 8 (0.2) Brazi 1 31 (0.9) Belgium 70 (2.1) Burma 7 (0.2) Canada 172 (5.1) India 17 (0.5) France 133 (4.0) S Korea 25 (0.7) W Germany 181 (5.4) Mexico 164 (4.9) Greece 15 (0.4) Morocco 58 (1. 7) Italy 33 (1.0) Namibia 39 (1.2) Japan 233 (7.0) Peru 74 (2.2) Spain 98 (2.9) Tunisia 1 ( .. ) Sweden 46 (1.4) Zambia 8 (0.2) UK 152 (4.5) USA 439 (13.1) Yugoslavia _li .J..h1) ---Totals 1771 (56.0) 441 (13.2) Grand Total 3341
WORLD REFINED LEAD PRODUCTION ('000 tonnes and% of total 1985/86 Averages) This includes secondary antimonial lead.
Developed Developing
Australia 192 (3.5) Argentina 32 (0.6) Belgium 98 (1.8) Brazil 80 (1.4) Canada 252 (4.5) Mexico 195 (3.5) France 227 (4.1) Morocco 59 (1.1) W Germany 361 (6.5) Namibia 39 (0. 7) Italy 131 (2.4) Peru 75 (1.4) Japan 364 (6.6) Others 223 (4.0) Spain 141 (2.5) Sweden 75 (1.4) UK 328 (5.9) USA 982 (17. 7) Yugoslavia 139 (2.5) Others 148 _(b.D ---Totals 3438 (62.0) 703 (12.7) Grand Total 5547
142
Centrally Planned
Bulgaria 105 (3.1) China 175 (5.2) N Korea 60 (1.8) Poland 46 ( 1.4) Romania 43 (1.3) USSR 600 (18.0)
----1029 (30.8)
Centrally Planned
Bulgaria 118 (2.1) China 218 (3.9) Czecho-slovakia 23 (0.4) E Germany 45 (0.8) N Korea 65 ( 1. 2) Poland 88 ( 1. 6) Romania 49 (0.9) USSR 800 (14.4)
----1406 (25.3)
coins)
Lead
MINE 2 SMELTER AND REFINERY CAPACITIES 2 1986 ( '000 tonnes)
Mine* Smelter Refinery
Developed Australia 460 460 250 Belgium 115 155 Canada 483 89 94 France 2 160 120 W Germany 30 231 296 Italy 30 32 80 Japan 70 338 315 S Africa 100 Spain 100 90 116 Sweden 85 65 30 UK 40 245 USA 559 372 454 Yugoslavia 130 155 155 Others 120 54 60
Total 2169 2201 2370
Developing Argentina 40 102 86 Brazil 25 40 40 Mexico 208 290 320 Morocco 145 65 65 Namibia 40 75 75 Peru 230 102 102 Zambia 30 30 30 Others 208 132 146
Total 926 836 864
Centrally Planned China 170 190 185 Bulgaria 125 130 120 N Korea 80 110 120 USSR 605 585 700 Others 80 140 200
Total 1060 1155 1325
TOTAL 4155 4192 4559
* Mine capacities are for 1985.
143
LEAD RECOVERED FROM SCRAP: WESTERN WORLD ('000 tonnes 1985/86 Averages)
Scrap included in refined production 1829 Other identified scrap recovery
(remelted, alloys and direct use) 186 2015
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000:
28
2.4 : 1
CONSUMPTION OF REFINED METAL
1985/86 Averages '000 tonnes
European Community Japan United States Others Total Western world
Total world
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (%)
Batteries Cable sheathing Pipe and sheet Chemicals Alloys Others
* Including tetraethyl
1227 393
1120 1279 4019
5461
USAl
76 2 3 9* 5 6
1 Lead in all forms including scrap 2 Refined lead only Source: ILZSG
144
UKl
30 4
28 23* 6 8
% p.a. growth rates 1960-70 1970-80 1980-86
2.4 8.4 2.1 5.8 3.4
3.9
0.2 3.4 0.6 2.7 1.2
1.8
W Germany!
49 4
12 28 4 3
-0.4 -0.1 0.6 2.4 0.7
0.5
Japan2
67 3 4
16 4 5
coins)
Lead
VALUE OF CONTAINED METAL IN ANNUAL PRODUCTION
$3.3 billion (total refined metal at average 1987 prices).
SUBSTITUTES
Battery replacements include nickel-zinc, zinc-chloride and lithium metalsulphide although large scale commercial use is precluded by cost and operating problems.
Polyethylene and other materials substitute in some cable coverings.
In construction applications, plastics, galvanised steel, copper and aluminium are alternatives. In corrosive chemical environments, stainless steel, titanium, plastics and cement are substitutes. Tin, glass, plastics and aluminium are alternatives in tubes and containers, and iron or steel in shot for ammunition.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Environmental worries may limit uses for lead particularly in petrol where its use as an anti-knock additive is being phased down. Storage batteries for industrial load levelling, mains power management, and electric vehicles are prospective markets. Also the continued search for weight reduction is reducing the amount of lead per battery, and battery lives are being extended.
Use of lead as an antioxidant in asphalt.
Use of lead for nuclear waste protection.
New techniques to recover lead from concentrates and from scrap.
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
¢/lb LME Cash 24.8 19.3 20.1 17.8 18.4 27.1 US Producer 25.5 21.7 25.5 19.1 22.3 35.4
£/tonne LME Cash 310.7 280.3 332.1 303.6 277.1 363.4 Real 1987 price 318.9 284.3 329.9 300.5 284.5 363.4
Monthly LME 276.9- 263.4- 280.3- 269.6- 236.3- 287.5-range i/tonne 343.4 301.4 373.6 372.2 380.5 540.5
145
Lead
Outside the US, where a domestic producer pr1c1ng system operates, sales are based on LME terminal market prices. A substantial percentage of mine output is associated with Zn, Cu and Ag, which affects the supply and breakeven costs. Large secondary production (with lower costs than primary supply) is a major factor influencing price.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
Some 300-400 mines produce lead mainly as by- or co-product, but smelters are the main influence on market trends. Primary smelting is dominated by large companies, with state controlled production, e.g. from Peru, a growing influence. Secondary smelters, often linked to battery manufacturers, normally have a restraining effect on the market; scrap availability is fairly sensitive to price.
146
110
100
90
80
LEAD LME cash
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
70~--------~------~--------~------~------~
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
147
coins)
Lead
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) Mine production 3.5 99.7 45.2 388.8
(inc. Greenland) Smelted from ores & bullion 152 584 233 439 Refined inc. secondary 328 1208 364 982
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes lead content) Ores and concentrates 32.7 301.0 178.3 64.7 Base bull ion 148.6 196.1 26.6 0.5 Refined inc. refined
antimonial 34.2 146.5 52.5 136.9 Secondary material 2.9 n/a 0.1 2.8
Source of Net Imports (%)
Ores and concentrates Australia 32 6 23 18 Canada 15 14 24 53 European Community 10 Norway 2 1 S Africa & Namibia 15 13 3 Spain 11 4 Sweden 3 10 Argentina 2 Bolivia 2 Honduras 9 3 2 1 Mexico 4 Morocco 4 Peru 9 13 22 18 Thailand 3 9 Turkey 1 Others 9 10 6 3
148
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Refined Lead
Australia 15 7 36 1 Canada 71 18 2 71 European Community 4 2 1 S Africa & Namibia 2 3 Sweden 8 5 1 United States 1 2 Mexico 18 15 23 Morocco 2 25 Peru 9 12 2 Taiwan 17 Others 14 10
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes lead content) Ores and concentrates 3.0 33.8 7.2 Base bull ion 39.1 46.0 (a) 0.4 0.3 Refined lead, inc. refined
antimonial 62.1 92.6 24.9 17.4 (a) Gross exports
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) Refined 278.2 1226.6 1119.7 Scrap and remelted (not 393.4
included in refined) 28.0 70.3 60.2
Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption 71 50 65 17 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports 53 44 61 17
Share of World Consumption (%) (Refined Lead) Western world 7 31 10 28 Total world 5 22 7 21
Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1960s -0.1 2.4 8.4 2.1 1970s -0.6 0.2 3.4 0.6
149
coins)
LITHIUM
WORLD RESERVES (•ooo tonnes lithium and% of total)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned Total
Australia Portugal USA Totals
270 (13.9) 1 ( .. )
365 (18.9) 636 (32.8)
Chile Zimbabwe Others
1270 (65.6) 25 ( 1.3)
_5 .J.Q.d)
1300 (67.2)
China USSR
n/a n/a
n/a 1936 (W world)
The Western world reserve base, in so far as data are available, is estimated at 8,350,000 tonnes, two-thirds of which is in Bolivia. Other locations, not included above, are Canada and Zaire. The size of the reserve base in Argentina, Brazil and Portugal is unknown. Total estimated world resources are approximately 6.5 million tonnes of lithium equivalent.
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION, 1985/86 and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985 (tonnes of lithium and% of total)
Mine % of Production Production
Developed Australia 337 f4.0~ Canada 12 0.1 Portugal 10 (0.1) USA 4500 (53.2)
Total 4859 (57.4) Developing Argentina 1 ( .. ) Brazi 1 30 (0.4) Chile 840 (9.9) Namibia 49 (0.6) Zimbabwe 600 (7.1)
Total 1520 (18.0) Centrally Planned China 450 (5.3) USSR 1630 (19.3)
Total 2080 (24.6)
TOTAL 8459
(a) Based largely on a paper by R. Crozier. 8th •Industrial International Congress.
Productive Capacity( a)
510 245
20 6000 6775
150 280
1200 150 375
2155
680 1020 1700
10630
Minerals•
These figures represent estimates of lithium extracted from mineral concentrate and brine. 150
RESERVE PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000:
CONSUMPTION
Lithium
extremely large
n/a
The available statistics are sparse, and those below merely give broad orders of magnitude of contained lithium as concentrate.
1985/86 Averages tonnes
European Community 1020 Japan 753 United States c. 2300 World 5150
END USE PATTERNS 1985 (USA) (%)
Primary aluminium Ceramics and glass Lubricants Others
VALUE OF ANNUAL PRODUCTION
28 32 24 16
% p.a. 1970s
n/a 11.7 5.2 n/a
$150 million (at average 1987 price for lithium carbonate).
SUBSTITUTES
growth rates 1980-86
n/a 6.7
-2.4 1.6
Sodium and potassium substitute as fluxes in ceramics and glass industries. Calcium and aluminium soaps, plus detergents and gels, are alternatives for lithium stearate in lubricants.
Zinc, magnesium, cadmium, sodium and mercury compete for the lithium anode material in batteries. Magnesium has also been successful as a deoxidiser and grain refiner in copper and iron castings.
Lithium can be removed from use in aluminium potlines by increasing the percentages of other salts.
151
Lithium
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Use in nuclear fusion electric power reactors. Development of rechargeable lithium batteries and extensive use in fuel cells. Potential for substantial use in structural metal field, particularly in lightweight alloys and in glass applications.
Substitution of lithium for fluorine as a melting flux.
PRICES
US carbonate 99% min lithium carbonate ¢/lb
Real 1987 price
1982
141
151.6
1983
141
143.1
1984
148
146.7
1985
154
153.4
1986
150
153.9
1987
150
150
Lithium carbonate is 18.8% contained lithium. US producers set domestic producer price which serves as world reference price.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
Two US companies control the majority of the Western world's production of lithium concentrate although a new lithium carbonate plant in Chile, which opened in 1984, may reduce US dominance in the next few years.
152
LITHIUM US carbonate 99% min LiC02
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
104
102
100
98
96
94-+----"" money terms
--" - \ \
\ \
\ \
Lithium
92~--------~--------~------~--------~------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
153
Lithium
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK
Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Mine production (contained 1i)
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Ores and concentrates, gross n/a Lithium carbonate 950
Lithium hydroxide 484.5 Lithium metal 28.5 Total contained lithium c. 287 (a) c.
(a) Excluding UK (b) Excluding ores and concentrates
Source of Net Imports (%)
Lithium carbonate European Community United States Chile China USSR
Lithium hydroxide United States Hong Kong China USSR Others and undefined
Metal European Community United States Hungary Others and undefined
154
EC{lO)
n/a 5751 (a)
1470 (a) 8 (a)
1332 (a,b)
61 29 9 1
32
21 2
45
27 13
Japan USA
4725 (estimate)
8184 3430 1586
(all compounds) 841
46 10.4 c. 830 c. 500
All compounds 1 2
62 25 98 11
85 3 7 4
33 67
100
Lithium
UK EC(lO) Japan USA
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Lithium carbonate 191 209 5782 Lithium hydroxide 98 (a) 3230 Other compounds 1973 Lithium metal 51 (a) n/a Total all forms contained
1 ithium c. 36 c. 106 2040
(a) Excluding UK
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes)
Contained lithium as chemicals after processing losses c. 150 c. 1020 753 2300
Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption 100 100 100 (net exports) Imports as % of consumption
and net exports 100 100 100 (net exports)
Share of World Consumption (%) Total world 3 20 15 45 Western world 3 21 15 46
Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s n/a n/a 11.7 5.2
155
MAGNESIUM
MAGNESITE - WORLD RESERVES (million tonnes of magnesium and % of total)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Australia 86 (3.4) Brazil 136 (5.4) Czecho-Austria 13 (0.5) India 27 ( 1.1) slovakia 18 (0. 7) Canada 27 (1.1) Others 305 (12.0) China 745 (29.4) Greece 27 (1.1) N Korea 445 (17.6) Turkey 9 (0.3) USSR 655 (25.9) USA 9 (0.3) Others 9 (0.3) Yugoslavia 5 (0.2) Others __Ji~) --- -----Totals 190 (7.5) 468 (18.5) 1872 (74.0) Grand Total 2530
The reserve base is 3,350 million tonnes. Identified world resources of magnesite total some 12 billion tonnes. Furthermore magnesium compounds can be recovered economically from well and lake brines and from seawater. The latter, which contains 0.13% by weight of magnesium, is a major source of metal and compounds.
WORLD PRODUCTION OF MAGNESITE ('000 tonnes and% of total 1985/86 Averages)
Developed
Austria 1170 (9.5) Australia 49 (0.4) Canada 140 (1.1) Greece 936 (7.6) S Africa 45 (0.4) Spain 696 (5.7) Turkey 1238 (10.1) USA c. 50 (0.4) Yugoslavia 421 ~) Totals 4745 (38.7) Grand Total
Developing
Braz i 1 India Mexico Zimbabwe Others
12276
245 (2.0) 436 (3.6)
20 (0.2) 24 (0.2) 26 (0.2)
751 (6.1)
Centrally Planned
Czecho-slovakia 660 (5.4) China 2000 (16.3) N Korea 1900 (15.5) Poland 20 (0.2) USSR 2200 (17.9)
6780 (55.2)
The magnesium content of this production was approximately 3.4 million tonnes. In addition the magnesium content of dolomite, seawater, and well and lake brines amounted to roughly 1.6 million tonnes of contained magnesium, with output in the United States around 410,000 tonnes. The world capacity for producing magnesia from seawater and brines is roughly 2.3 million tonnes (US 0.75 million, Japan 0.55 million).
156
Magnesium
WORLD PRODUCTION, 1985/86, and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985, OF PRIMARY MAGNESIUM METAL ('000 tonnes and% of total)
Mine Production
Developed Canada 6.8 France 13.55 Italy 7.55 Japan 8.30 Norway 55.60 USA 126.15 Yugoslavia 4.90
Total 222.85
Developing India 0.10 Brazil 3.50
Total 3.60
Centrall~ Planned China 9.00 USSR 85.50
Total 94.50
TOTAL 320.95
SECONDARY RECOVERY OF MAGNESIUM METAL ('000 tonnes 1985/86 Averages)
Austria Braz i 1 Japan United Kingdom United States USSR
0.35 1.90
17.65 0.95
41.55 c. 9.00
This includes recovery of magnesium alloys.
157
% of Productive Production Capacity
(2.1) 9.0 (4.2) 14.0 (2.4) 11.0 (2.6) 12.0
(17.3) 55.0 (39.3) 168.0 (1.7) 5.0
(69.4) 274.0
( .. ) n/a ( 1.1) 4 (1.1) 4
(2.8) 9.0 (26.6) 90.0 (29.4) 99.0
377.0
Magnesium
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): Ratio of identified resources to cumulative demand 1987-2000:
extremely large (excludes seawater)
over 30 : 1
(This excludes seawater, brines and presently uneconomic resources).
158
Magnesium
CONSUMPTION OF MAGNESITE
Reliable data for most countries are not readily available. United States consumption of magnesium compounds averaged 537,000 tonnes of contained magnesium in 1985/86. It fell at an average annual rate of 2% during the 1970s, and at 4.4% from 1980-1986, mainly because of declining steel industry activity.
CONSUMPTION OF MAGNESIUM METAL
1985/86 Averages % p.a. growth rates (total) '000 tonnes Primary Total 1970s 1980-86
European Community 50.9 51.9 -2 -0.2 Japan 20.6 38.3 8.5 1.2 United States 72.9 114.5 2.8 -3.5 Other countries 42.5 44.8 3.2 -0.6 Total Western world 186.9 249.5 3.0 -0.4
Total world 290.3 361.9 3.9 1.2
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (USA) (%)
Non-metal Refractories 75 Preparation of caustic calcined
and specified magnesias and other magnesium compounds 25
Metal Manufacture of A1 based alloys 53 Castings and wrought products 23 Reducing agent 7 Chemicals 2 Nodular iron 2 Other 13
VALUE OF ANNUAL PRODUCTION
Magnesite Magnesium metal (primary only)
$ 2.8 billion (at average 1987 prices) $1082 million (at average 1987 prices)
As magnesite is a raw material for some magnesium metal, the two values are not additive.
159
Magnesium
SUBSTITUTES
Aluminium and zinc are alternatives in many die-casting applications. Sodium can be used to reduce titanium tetrachloride to produce titanium metal.
Rare earth elements and calcium carbide can substitute in production of nodular iron and steel desulphurisation.
Alumina, silica, zirconia, chromite and kyanite are substitutes in magnesia refractories.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Increased use in car industry and in steel desulphurisation.
Greater use of aluminium-magnesium alloys, particularly in the aluminium can, and development of new improved alloys.
Plastics and composites could replace magnesium metal in some areas.
Development of better refractories and of furnaces with limited refractory maintenance could decrease demand.
Olivine and dunite, naturally occurring magnesium compounds, are potential alternatives for silica foundry sand and blasting sand. Olivine also has limited use for slag and alkali control in steelmaking.
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
Magnesite, dead-burned, bulk, bagged, fob Luning $/st 246 249 249 249 249 249 Magnesite, dead-burned, Real 1987 price 253 253 247 248 255 249 Magnesite, Brickmaking grain UK £/tonne 180 180 180 193.4 200 200 Magnesium metal US primary ingot 99.8% ¢/lb 134 136.5 145.5 148.2 153.0 153.0 Magnesium Real 1987 price 137.7 138.5 144.2 147.6 157.0 153.0
160
Magnesium
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
Metal production is dominated by US and Norwegian companies but sources of raw materials (seawater, lake brines, magnesite, dolomite) are widespread. Costs of energy are a limiting factor on new metal production, with present production technology.
161
Magnesium
MAGNESIUM Metal US primary ingot $/lb.
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
105
100
95
I' I '
I ' I ',
I I
I I
85~--------r--------r--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
162
104
102
100
98
MAGNESITE Dead-burned bulk, bagged f.o.b. luning $/lb.
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
rea/1987 terms ----, \ \ \ \ \
\ I \ ,_,-\,- ,_ ,_
Magnesium
I" I \ I \
I \\ I \
I \ I \
I \ I \
96~------~--------~------~--------r-------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
163
Magnesium
SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR MAGNESITE BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) Magnesite - gross weight 936 c. 50
- Mg content 311 c. 9 Magnesia, from other sources
(dolomite, brines, seawater) - Mg content n/a n/a n/a c. 410
(capacity 220)
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes)
Magnesium oxide, carbonate and clinker 130 539 305 248
Source of Net Imports (%) including magnesia from brine and seawater Crude + processd
magnesite Austria 17 1 Canada 21 European Community 60 44 Japan 3 5 Spain 22 18 3 United States 1 Turkey 9 1 China 7 27 83 17 Czechoslovakia 8 3 N Korea 8 16 Brazil 1 Israel 3 Mexico 4 Others 11 6 1
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) 88 233 (a) 113 42
(a) Excluding UK
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) n/a n/a n/a 537
164
Magnesium
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Im~ort De~endence
Imports as % of consumption n/a n/a n/a 46 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports n/a n/a n/a 43
Share of World Consum~tion (%) Total world (approx) n/a n/a n/a n/a
Consum~tion Growth (% p.a.)
1970s n/a n/a n/a -2
165
Magnesium
SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR MAGNESIUM METAL BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) (•ooo tonnes) Magnesium metal primary 21.1 8.3 126.15 Magnesium metal secondary 0.95 0.95 17.65 41.55
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (•ooo tonnes) Unwrought and wrought
including waste and scrap 7.0 27.8 14.87 5.9
Source of Net Imports (%)
Canada 21 6 7 European Community 37 2 Norway 35 43 18 Sweden 2 United States 30 69 Yugoslavia 8 Taiwan 1 Others 8 11 3
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (•ooo tonnes) 2.1 6.0 1.8 36.4
(inc. alloys)
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (•ooo tonnes) Inc. secondary 5.6 52 38 115
Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption 100 53 39 5 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports 91 50 37 4
Share of World Consumption (%)
Western world 2 21 15 47 Total world 1 14 11 32
Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s -0.5 -2 8.5 2.8
166
MANGANESE
WORLD RESERVES (million tonnes manganese and% of total)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Australia S Africa
Totals Grand Total
70 (7.5) Brazil 370 (39.8) Gabon
Ghana India Mexico Morocco
440 (47.4) 929
19 (2.0) China 100 (10.8) USSR
4 (0.4) 18 (1.9) 3 (0.3)
_1 _j.Q.!_!.) 14.5 (15.6)
14 (1.5) 330 (35.5)
344 (37.0)
The reserve base is approximately 3,650 million tonnes, 95% of which is located in Australia, S Africa, Gabon and USSR. In addition, sea bed nodules contain substantial resources of manganese.
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION 2 1985/86 2 and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY 2 1985 ('000 tonnes of manganese and% of total)
Mine % of Productive Production Production Capacity
Developed Australia 855 (10.1) 1180 S Africa 1474 (16.8) 2995 Others 29 (0.3) 40
Total 2358 (27.0) 4215
Developing Braz i 1 1080 (12.3) 1270 Gabon 1119 (12.8) 1180 Ghana 114 ( 1. 3) 135 India 473 (5.4) 635 Mexico 162 (1.8) 275 Morocco 21 (0.2) 35 Others 20 (0.2) 40
Total 2989 (34.2) 3570
Centrall~ Planned China 480 (5.5) 500 USSR 2860 (32.6) 3450 Others 49 (0.6) 55
Total 3389 (38.8) 4005
TOTAL 8736 11790
167
Manganese
The gross production of ore from which the manganese was derived averaged 24.3 million tonnes. The data exclude modest output of low grade ore in a number of countries.
The manganese content of mined ore varies widely between countries. The shipped ore grades of the main producers are:
Australia Brazil China Gabon Ghana India Mexico Morocco S Africa USSR
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years):
37-53 38-50 30 50-53 30-50 10-54 27-50 50-53 30-48+ 29-30
106 Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000: 8 : 1 (land only)
CONSUMPTION
1985/86 Averages '000 tonnes
Manganese ore (gross weight) European Community 2270 Japan 1060 United States 474
Ferromanganese (gross weight) European Community Japan United States
c. 700 c. 400
382
% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86
-0.2 -4.8 1.5 -5.8
-6.0 -11.9
0.5 -6.2 2.1 -14.0
-1.6 -11.6
Note: The ferromanganese figures in this table and in the table on supply and demand by main market area include some double counting of high carbon ferromanganese that is used to make more refined products.
168
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (USA) (%)
Manganese metal Steel (including alloy steels) Superalloy Other alloys Miscellaneous
Ferromanganese
22 1
75 2
Steel (including alloy steels) 96 Cast irons 3 Others (including alloys & superalloys) 1
VALUE OF ANNUAL PRODUCTION
$1.1 billion (metal content at average 1987 prices).
SUBSTITUTES
Manganese
Cost and technology militate against substitution in major applications and for economic reasons there is only limited substitution in minor applications in chemicals and batteries.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Deep sea nodules.
Use of lower grades of ores in ferromanganese production.
New steelmaking practices and techniques are reducing amount of manganese consumed in the process, but counterbalancing this to some extent is a trend towards higher manganese specifications in modern steels.
169
Manganese
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
Ore Europe 48-50% Mn $/tonne of contained metal 165 138 137.1 138.9 137.0 128.0 Europe 48-50% Mn Real 1987 price 169.3 140.1 136.2 137.5 140.6 128.0
Metal UK Electrolytic min 99.95% £/tonne 770 1260.5 1783.0 1820.0 1861.9 1936.7
Source: Metal Bulletin
Prices negotiated, dependent on chemical quality, physical character, quantity, delivery terms, etc. Published quotations only reflect general condition of market. Freight charges are particularly important. Strategic value.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
A few large companies dominate, with government ownership important in some cases. Five countries control approximately half of non-Eastern Bloc ore production, with South Africa dominating. Trend to forward integration by ore producers into ferromanganese production - e.g. in South Africa. Some steel producers have manganese interests. Much ore trade is handled by agents.
170
Manganese
MANGANESE Ore Europe 48-50% Mn
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
140
130
120
110
100
90~------~~------~--------r-------~------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
171
Manganese
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) Mine Production gross weight 28 14
contained Mn 11 3.6 Ferromanganese 89 622 401 123
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ( '000 tonnes) Manganese ore gross weight 272.9 2334 1362 386 Ferromanganese gross weight 49.0 200 6.5 346 Metal 4.52 13 n/a 8.3
Source of Net Im~orts (%)
Manganese ore Australia 2 5 33 18 European Community 1 S Africa 34 26 55 4 Brazi 1 55 11 4 24 Gabon 35 5 43 Ghana 3 4 Mexico 10 Morocco 2 2 Others and undefined 6 18 1
Ferromanganese Australia 3 Canada 12 European Community 26 32 Norway 44 57 7 1 Portugal 2 6 5 S Africa 26 27 36 Spain 6 1 Sweden 1 5 Yugoslavia 1 China 5 Brazi 1 2 33 4 Mexico 9 India 46 Others 2 3
172
Manganese
UK EC(lO) Japan USA
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ( '000 tonnes) Manganese ore 2.05 95.6 1.4 44 Ferromanganese 15.2 108.5 16.4 5 Metal n/a 3 (a) n/a 5.1
(a) Exc. UK
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes gross wt) Manganese ore 300 2270 1060 474 Ferromanganese c. 120 c. 700 c. 400 382
Import Dependence (manganese) (a) Imports as % of consumption 100 99 99 100 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports 100 99 99 100
Share of World Consumption (%) Total world (approx.) Manganese ore 3 26 12 5 Ferromanganese 2 14 8 8
Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s: Manganese ore -2.7 -0.2 1.5 -6.0 Ferromanganese -4.7 0.5 2.1 -1.6
(a) Based on mine production of manganese ore relative to consumption
173
MERCURY
WORLD RESERVES (•ooo 76 lb flasks and% of total)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Spain 2600 (65.7) Algeria 80 (2.0) China 300 (7.6) USA 140 (3.5) Mexico 150 (3.8) USSR 300 (7.6) Yugoslavia 350 (8.8) Others 20 (0.5) Others 5 (0.1) Others _1?_~) --- ----Totals 3105 (78.4) 250 (6.3) 605 (15.3) Grand Total 3960
The reserve base totals 7.2 million flasks with, in addition to the above, deposits in Canada, Turkey and the Philippines. Identified world resources amount to 17 million flasks.
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION, 1985/86, and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985 (•ooo 76 lb flasks and% of total)
Developed Finland Spain Turkey USA Yugoslavia Others (a)
Total
Developing Algeria Dominican Republic Mexico
Total
Centralll Planned China Czechos 1 ov ak i a USSR
Total
TOTAL
(a) Canada, W Germany and
Mine Production
2.3 43.5 6.0
14.6 2.0
68.4
23.0 0.1
10.7 33.8
20.0 4.4
65.5 89.9
192.1
Italy
174
% of Production
(1.2) (22.6) (3.1) (7.6) (1.0)
(35.6)
(12.0) ( ... ) (5.6)
(17.6)
(10.4) (2.3)
(34.1) (46.8)
Productive Capacity
3 60 10 35 20 65
193
35
20 55
35 8
72
115
363
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): Ratio of identified reserves to
1987-2000:
CONSUMPTION
Mercury
19
1.3 1
With increasingly tight environmental controls on mercury usage, demand has declined considerably in the last ten years and a growing percentage is now being met from secondary recovery. Statistics on total European demand are not available.
1985/86 Averages '000 flasks
Japan United States (a)
(a) Reported consumption.
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (%)
Electrical apparatus Mildew proofing paint Electrolytic production of
1.1 47.9
chlorine/caustic soda Industrial control instruments Others
USA
57 11
17 7 9
VALUE OF CONTAINED METAL IN ANNUAL PRODUCTION
$63 million (at average 1987 prices).
SUBSTITUTES
% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86
-11.5 -2.8 -1.4 -4.1
W. World
Batteries 32 Lamps 6 Chlorine/caustic 27 Salts & catalyst 22 Controls & dentistry 8 Other 5
Lithium and nickel-cadmium batteries are alternatives for mercury batteries but, generally, there are few satisfactory substitutes for applications in electrical apparatus and industrial and control instruments.
Diaphragm and membrane cells are replacing cells using mercury in the chloralkali industry.
Organic mildewicides are being substituted in latex paints; plastic paint and copper oxide paint are being used to protect ship hulls.
175
Mercury
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Environmental considerations are likely to encourage conservation and recycling.
Design changes in mercury cell and improvements in diaphragm cell could modify consumption.
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
New York Dealer Price 99.99% $/flask of 76 lb 20+ flask lots 377.1 327.4 314.4 311.0 239.2 329.6
Real 1987 price 387 332.4 312.3 307.8 245.6 329.6
Until 1978/79, mainly dealer markets; producer pricing has become more important since then, particularly outside US. Large quantities of secondary material and exports from China and the USSR affect prices. The USSR was accused of dumping into the EEC in 1986.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
The major producers• hold on the market has weakened as increased volumes of secondary material have become available plus supplies from China, the USSR, and the US stockpile. ASSIMER, the Mercury Producers• Association, whose members include Spain, Italy, Yugoslavia and Algeria, has had a varying impact on the market. Over three-quarters of world production is from state owned or controlled mines. The largest producer Minas de Almaden y Arrayanes of Spain forced up prices in 1987/88.
176
120
110
100
90
80
MERCURY NY dealer price 99.99%
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
\ \ ~ \~
...... \';
3 \~ 0 ~
? \3 ~ <fl
\ \ \ \
' ' ~
Mercury
70~--------~------~~------~---------r--------~
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
177
Mercury
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) ('000 76 lb flasks) Primary 14.6 Secondary n/a n/a 0.45 5.9 GSA releases 1.8 Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 76 lb flasks) 11.8 12.38 0.68 19.54 Source of Net Imports (%) European Community 43 3 4 Finland 3 Japan 7 12 Spain 41 43 7 35 Turkey 1 2 19 USA 6 China 3 4 82 18 USSR 8 Algeria 4 23 7 8 Mexico 2 Others 2 10 1
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 76 lb flasks) 1.3 8.93 8.8 n/a
(mainly secondary from stock)
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ('000 76 lb flasks) c. 10 n/a 1.1 47.9
(primary only) (apparent)
Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption 100 n/a 41 41
(primary only) Imports as % of consumption
and net exports 100 n/a 7 n/a (primary only)
A large percentage of European demand is meet from stocks. This complicates the calculation of import shares.
Share of World Consumption (%) Because of the substantial tonnages of mercury consumed from secondary recovery or from stocks, and the lack of complete statistics thereon, reliable estimates of shares of world consumption cannot be made. Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s 9.7 declined -11.5 -1.4
(primary only) rapidly
178
MOLYBDENUM
WORLD RESERVES ('000 tonnes of metal and% of total)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Canada 455 (8.2) Chile 1135 (20.6) China 455 (8.3) USA 2720 (49.3) Iran 70 (1.3) USSR 455 (8.3)
Mexico 90 (1.6) Others 2 ( .. ) Peru 135 (2.5) Others _2~) -------
Totals 3175 (57.5) 1432 (26.0) 912 (16.5) Grand Total 5519
The world reserve base is 11.8 million tonnes mainly located in the USA, Canada, Chile, the USSR and China. Identified resources amount to approximately 21 million tonnes.
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION, 1985/86, and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985 (tonnes of metal and % of total)
Mine % of Production Production
Developed Canada 10376 (10.8) Japan 49 ( .. ) USA 45900 (47.9)
Total 56325 (58.8)
Developing Chile 17353 (18.1) Mexico 3631 (3.8) Niger 20 ( .. ) Peru 3760 (3.9) S Korea 316 (0.3) Others (a)
Total 25080 (26.2)
Centralll Planned Bulgaria 185 (0.2) China 1905 (2.0) Mongolia 1000 (1.0) USSR 11340 (11.8)
Total 14430 (15.0)
TOTAL 95835
(a) Iran and Philippines 179
Productive Capacity
18150 225
98430 116805
21300 6800 n/a 3600 450
2050 34200
225 2700 n/a
12700 15625
166630
Molybdenum
A number of other countries, including N Korea and Turkey, produce molybdenum but no reliable data are available to determine production.
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000:
CONSUMPTION (Molybdenum in all forms)
58
2.9 1
1985/86 Averages tonnes
European Community Japan United States Other Countries Total Western world
(excluding exports to Eastern countries)
21240 11340 16325 12675
61580
% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86
2.3 4.4 3.1 2.4
2.5
-2.1 -1.4 -9.9
-4.2
Source: Intermet Molybdenum Database 1987. A. Sutulov.
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (%)
Steel Cast irons Super and special alloys Molybdenum metal Chemicals and ceramic use Others
VALUE OF CONTAINED METAL IN ANNUAL PRODUCTION
$0.6 billion (at average 1987 prices).
180
USA Western world
51 3
11 13 11 11
74 6 3 6
10 1
Molybdenum
SUBSTITUTES
Potential substitutes in alloy steel include boron, chromium, manganese, columbium, vanadium and nickel. Tungsten can be used in tool steels and along with tantalum, in certain refractory metal uses. Graphite can replace molybdenum for refractory elements in some electric furnaces. Chrome orange, cadmium red and organic orange pigments are substitutes for molybdenum orange. Most of the above alternatives to molybdenum suffer losses in efficiency. Heat treatment of alloy steels is an alternative to molybdenum.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Increased molybdenum recovery through improvement in efficiency of flotation techniques.
Development and application of new molybdenum-based steels and alloys particularly if resistance to oxidation at high temperatures was improved.
Nuclear and solar power equipment.
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
By-product Concentrate 95% MoS2 $/1b 3.54 3.14 3.37 3.15 2.49 2.59
Climax Oxide molybdic oxide (producer price) 85.5% oxide min $/lb 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 4.24 2.65
Dealer Oxide molybdic trioxide, export $/lb (range) 2.35-5.55 2.35-4.5 2.75-4.1 2.55-4.35 2.5-3.55 2.52-3.18
Average 4.3 3.8 3.6 3.2 2.9 2.96
Real 1987 price 4.4 3.86 3.6 3.17 2.97 2.96
181
Molybdenum
Prior to 1979-80 upsurge molybdenum was mainly producer priced, with a dealer market that influenced producer price movements. The dealer market subsequently became much more important, and producers' effective prices followed the market. By-product material was normally sold at discounts from Climax price. Production cutbacks in early 1980s temporarily forced concentrate to a premium over oxide causing problems for independent roasters. Ferromolybdenum prices linked to concentrate price. Producer prices were reinstated by Cyprus Mines amd Amax in 1986.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
Some 23 mines in USA, Canada, Chile, Mexicio and Peru account for most of the world's production, with Amax having about 25% of total capacity. Cyprus and Amax, Codelco the Chilean copper producer, have partially established control over the markets with Norunda. They purchase most of the by-product concentrate, as well as sell from their own mines.
182
Molybdenum
MOLYBDENUM Molybdic trioxide, export
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
120
100
90~--------r-------~--------.--------,--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
183
Molybdenum
SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN MAIN MARKET AREAS
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Mine production (Mo content) 49 45900 Molybdic oxide inc. briquettes n/a n/a n/a 21642 (a) (a) Includes use to make other products
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Ores and concentrates 19150 76608 19581 279 (Mo) Ferromolybdenum 325 2031 1027 459 (Mo) Other molybdenum products
(Mo content) 688 Oxides 270 96 399 Metal(unwrought) 146 139 69 76
Source of Net Imports (%)
Ores and concentrates Canada 8 18 14 European Community 35 19 Sweden 1 United States 37 49 30 China 6 Chile 2 18 37 Mexico 7 3 Peru 10 5 Others 2 1 1
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Ores and concentrates 3650 11569 25631 (Mo) Ferromolybdenum 4750 1799(a) 362 Metal 518 84 5 356 Compounds 1352 2375 9260
(oxides) (inc. oxides)
(a) Excludes Belgium-Luxembourg
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) All forms (Mo content) 3740 21440 11340 16325
184
Molybdenum
UK EC{10) Japan USA
Imeort Deeendence Imports as % of consumption 100 100 100 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports 100 100 100
Share of World Consumetion (%)
Western world 6 34 18 27
Consumetion Growth (% p.a.) 1970s -3.5 2.3 4.4 3.1
185
NICKEL
WORLD RESERVES {'000 tonnes of contained nickel and% of total)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Australia 2085 (5.9} Botswana 410 {0.8} China 725 ( 1.4) Canada 7260 {13.8} Brazil 815 ( 1. 5) Cuba 18145 {34.4) Finland 35 {0.1) Colombia 590 ( 1.1) USSR 6620 {12.5} Greece 2360 {4.5} Dominican Rep. 725 ( 1.4) S Africa 2540 (4.8} Indonesia 3900 (7.4) USA 270 {0.5} New Caledonia 1815 {3.4} Others 2450 (4.6} Philippines 1815 {3.4}
Zimbabwe ~_lQ_d) --------Totals 17000 {32.2) 10250 {19.4} 25490 {48.3} Grand Total 52740
The world's reserve base is estimated at 100 million tonnes and, in addition to the above countries, includes deposits in Guatemala, Papua New Guinea and several African nations. The average grade of the reserves included exceeds 1% nickel.
Identified world resources of nickel in deposits averaging 1% nickel or more exceed 65 million tonnes of which 80% is in laterites. Resources of lower grade deposits are very large, and there are extensive sea bed resources of nickel in manganese nodules.
186
Nickel
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION 2 1985/86 2 and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY 2 1985 ('000 tonnes of nickel and % of total)
Mine % of Productive Production Production Capacity
Developed Australia 81.9 (10.4) 115 Canada 175.3 (22.3) 250 Finland 10.2 ( 1.3) 10 Greece 13.1 (1. 7) 26 Norway 0.6 ( .. ) n/a* S Africa 29.0 (3.7) 45 USA 3.4 (0.4) 15 Yugoslavia 3.0 (0.4) 27
Total 316.5 (40.2) 488
Developing Botswana 19.3 (2.5) 20 Brazil 13.4 ( 1. 7) 16 Burma 0.1 ( .. ) n/a* Colombia 16.5 (2.1) 24 Dominican Rep. 24.9 (3.2) 30 Guatemala 11 Indonesia 57.8 (7.3) 59 New Caledonia 68.5 (8. 7) 90 Philippines 20.3 (2.6) 40 Zimbabwe 11.1 ( 1.4) 15
Total 231.9 (29.5) 305
Centrall~ Planned Albania 10.0 ( 1. 3) 10 China 20.5 (2.6) 30 Cuba 34.4 (4.4) 80 USSR 171.0 (21.7) 170 Others 2.2 (0.3) n/a*
Total 238.1 (30.3) 290 Not specified 5
TOTAL 786.5 1088
* Included in 'not specified'.
187
Nickel
WORLD REFINED METAL PRODUCTION ('000 tonnes of nickel and% of total 1985/86 Averages)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Australia 41.4 (5.4) Brazil 13.4 ( 1.8) China Austria 2.0 (0.3) Colombia 15.2 (2.0) Cuba Canada 121.4 (15.9) Dominican Rep. 24.9 (3.3) USSR France 7.6 ( 1. 0) Indonesia 4.7 (0.6) Others Finland 16.8 (2.2) New Caledonia 34.5 (4.5) Greece 13.1 ( 1. 7) Philippines 8.7 (1.1) Japan 94.0 (12.3) Taiwan 5.3 (0. 7) Norway 37.9 (5.0) Zimbabwe 14.0 (1.8) S Africa 25.9 (3.4) UK 24.4 (3.2) USA 17.3 (2.3) Yugoslavia ___]_=.Q ~) ---Totals 404.8 (53.0) 120.7 (15.8) Grand Total 763.2
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIO
Static reserve life (years): 67 Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000: 3.5 1 (land based only)
CONSUMPTION
21.0 (2.8) 16.6 (2.2)
189.0 (24.8) 11.1 ( 1. 5)
-----237.7 (31.1)
1985/86 Averages % p. a. growth rates '000 tonnes 1960s 1970s 1980-86
European Community 172.9 5.9 3.4 1.5 Japan 131.4 18.9 4.3 0.6 United States 134.0 3.2 1.8 -2.3 Others 132.6 11.0 5.7 6.1 Total Western world 570.9 7.0 3.4 1.4
Total world 783.2 6.9 3.6 1.5
188
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (%)
Stainless and alloy steels Non-ferrous alloys Electroplating Others
USA Japan
36 33 20 11
59 14 13 14
Transport Chemical industry Electrical equipment Construction Fabricated metal products Other
VALUE OF CONTAINED METAL IN ANNUAL PRODUCTION
$3.7 billion (refined metal at 1987 average LME prices).
SUBSTITUTES
Nickel
USA
25 15
9 9 9
23
The use of alternative materials tends to be more expensive or requires sacrifice in chemical or physical characteristics, and hence performance. However alternative materials are available to replace nickel in most of its uses. Alloy substitutes are normally other 'steel' industry metals such as molybdenum, columbium and manganese. Platinum, cobalt and copper can be used in some catalysts. Titanium and many plastics can compete for markets where corrosion-resistance is important. Cobalt can replace nickel in electroplating applications.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Deep sea nodules.
Development of new nickel-bearing alloys.
Substitution of nickel-based superalloys by ceramic components.
189
Nickel
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
Cathode
US Producer $/lb 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 US Dealer $/lb 2.37 2.72 2.24 2.29 1.88 2.29 LME Cash i/tonne 2747.25 3088.86 3569.16 3836.12 2646.1 2949.22 US Producer $/lb Real 1987 price 3.34 3.29 3.23 3.22 3.34 3.25
Producer pricing with dealer market. Discounting in weak demand periods. Breakeven costs influenced by associated by-product revenues. A London Metal Exchange (LME) quotation was introduced in mid-1979 but it only became a significant market force in 1982. The LME has greatly weakened producer pricing arrangements although the majority of nickel is traded on producerconsumer contracts.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
The influence of major producers has weakened in recent years although International Nickel (Inca) still retains over one-third of Western world market, with Falconbridge, !metal, Western Mining as other major producers. State participation in the industry is increasing, mainly through joint ventures. Dealer markets, including the LME, backed by substantial Western imports from Cuba and the USSR have dominated pricing in recent years. All major producers have managed to reduce their costs, sometimes substantially, and laterite mines have greatly benefited from lower energy prices in 1985/6.
190
NICKEL Cathode US dealer
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
110
105
/' / '
/ ' / '
/ ' 100~------------~--------------~--------------~
money terms ' / ~---...1
95
90~--------~------~~------~---------r------~
Nickel
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
191
Nickel
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes Ni content) Mine production 13.1 3.4 Production of matte 3.4 Smelter/Refinery Production 24.35 45.6 94.0 17.25 of which
metal 24.35 32.5 24.25 17.25 ferro and nickel oxide sinter 13.1 69.75
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes Ni content)
Ores and concentrates 57.35 Matte and mixed sulphides 29.25 38.3 41.75 14.55 Ferro and nickel oxide sinter
and meta 1 19.6 127.6 35.85 104.7
Source of Net Imports (%)
All forms Australia 7 11 14 10 Canada 64 26 5 47 European Community 7 1 3 Finland 4 3 1 4 Norway 2 5 2 15 S Africa 5 7 3 United States 2 4 1 Botswana 4 Colombia 1 3 1 1 Dominican Republic 2 3 2 5 Indonesia 1 1 38 New Caledonia 16 19 3 Philippines 2 9 1 Zimbabwe 2 2 2 2 USSR 3 13 3 Cuba 1 Others 3 1 1
192
Nickel
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes Ni content) Ores and concentrates Matte and mixed sulphides 0.45 0.25 Ferro and nickel oxide
sinter and metal 12.2 16.35 1.6 9.2
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes Ni content) All forms 26.1 172.9 131.4 134
Import Dependence
Imports as % of consumption 100 96 100 89 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports 100 88 100 83
Share of World Consumption (%)
Western world 5 30 23 23 Total world 3 22 17 17
Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1960s 1.6 5.9 18.9 3.2 1970s -0.3 3.4 4.3 1.8
193
NIOBIUM
WORLD RESERVES ('000 tonnes of metal and% of total)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Canada 122 (3.0) Brazil 3220 (78.0) USSR 680 (16.5) Nigeria 65 ( 1. 6) Malaysia 1 ( .. ) Thailand 6 (0.1) Zaire ___E __j_Q_=.§_) --- ---
Totals Grand Total
122 (3.0) 4126
3324 (80.5) 680 (16.5)
The reserve base is 5 million tonnes, and world resources are estimated at some 17.25 million tonnes.
WESTERN WORLD MINE PRODUCTION, 1985/86, and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985 (tonnes of contained metal and% of total)
Developed Australia Canada
Total
Developing Brazil Malaysia Namibia Nigeria Rwanda Thailand Zaire Zimbabwe
Total
TOTAL
Mine Production
25 2282 2307
13041 12 1
23 4
47 41 5
13174
15481
(a) Includes Mozambique, Rwanda and Namibia.
% of Production
(0.2) ( 14. 7)
(14.9)
(84.2) ( .. ) ( .. )
(0.1) ( .. )
(0.3) (0.3)
( .. ) (85.1)
Productive Capacity
70 2270 2340
18145 90
n/a 205
n/a 270 70
___1Q. (a) 18870
21210 (b)
(b) A further 935 tonnes of productive capacity is believed to exist in USR and Europe.
The above production data are mostly US Bureau of Mines estimates based on the reported gross weight of production. Spain, Mozambique, Zambia, the USSR and China also produce, or are thought to produce, niobium but reliable estimates of output are not available 194
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000:
CONSUMPTION
Niobium
over 250
12 : 1
Reliable statistics are not available for most areas but broad orders of magnitude are as follows for contained niobium in all forms.
European Community Japan United States (a)
1985/86 Averages tonnes
c. 3700 3019 3345
(a) Apparent consumption.
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (USA) (%)
HSLA Steels 34 Carbon steels 28 Stainless + heat-resisting steels 16 Superalloys 20 Others 1
VALUE OF CONTAINED METAL IN ANNUAL PRODUCTION
% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86
approx 5 to 8 12.1 4.1
c. 3 8.0
-0.8
$89 million (Western world only at average 1987 prices).
SUBSTITUTES
Vanadium, titanium and molybdenum in HSLA steels. Tantalum competes in superalloys. Titanium can be used in stainless steels. In high temperature applications, molybdenum, tungsten, tantalum and ceramics are alternatives.
Substitutes usually lower performance and/or cost effectiveness.
195
Niobium
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Refinements in beneficiating and processing techniques are giving products of higher purity or different composition.
Continuing development of new steels, superalloys, superconductors for lowtemperature usage and super-conducting magnets.
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
Ore
Pyrochlore t/lb contained Cb205 325 325 325 325 260 260
Real 1987 price 334 330 323 322 267 260
Mainly producer price basis and nominal price changes are infrequent. Concentrate producers have low costs relative to prices. Outside of Canada and Brazil, most niobium is produced as a by-product of tin mining.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
The Brazilian Araxa mine (Companhia Brasileria de Metalurgica e Mineracao) and Niobec in Canada are the major concentrate producers, and dominate the market. Most of the Brazilian material is processed into ferroniobium before export. Production of metal is usually in the hands of separate companies from the mining companies.
196
130
120
110
100
NIOBIUM Pyrochlore contained Cb20 5
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
real 1987 terms ----', money terms ' ,_ ---,
\ \ ~
Niobium
90~--------r--------r--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
197
Niobium
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Mine production Ferroniobium:
approx. gross wt approx. Nb content
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Ores and Concentrates
(gross wt)
Ferroniobium (gross wt)
Metal and alloys
UK
n/a n/a
720
22
EC(10)
n/a n/a
2037
n/a
60
(a)
(incl. wrought & waste & scrap)
(a) Includes tantalum ores and concentrates
Source of Net Imports (%)
Ores and Concentrates Australia Canada Brazil Nigeria Others
Ferroniobium European Community USA Chile Brazil
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Ores and concentrates
(gross wt)
36 7
57
Ferroniobium (gross wt) 35 Metal compounds and alloys 8
2 94
4
1084 (a) n/a
76 (a) Includes tantalum ores and concentrates
198
Japan
966 628
1813
2397
n/a
90 7 3
1
1 98
USA
n/a n/a
1305 (Nb content 592)
2837 (Nb content 2048)
1
99
1
100
54
Niobium
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Niobium metal n/a n/a n/a n/a Ferroniobium (Nb content) 310 n/a n/a 2503
(iron & steel usage) Total all forms c. 330 c. 3700 c. 3019 3345
Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption 100 100 100 100 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports 100 100 100 100
Share of World Consumption (%) Western world (approx.) 2 24 19 22
Consumption Growth (% p.a.) approx. 1970s -5 5 to 8 12.1 4.1
(ferro only)
199
PHOSPHATE
The following tables show the world's reserves, delimited using a production cost of less than $35 per tonne, and the world's reserve base, delimited using a production cost of less than $100 per tonne. A number of deposits currently being exploited are classified as in the reserve base using this definition.
WORLD RESERVES (million tonnes and% of total)
Developed
S Africa USA
2500 (18.9) 1300 (9.8)
Totals 3800 (28.7)
Developing
Brazi 1 Christmas Is Jordan Morocco + W. Sahara Nauru Senegal Togo Tunisia Others
Grand Total 13255
40 30
120 7000
10 40 40 20
(0.3) (0.2) (0.9)
(52.8)
(0.1) (0.3) (0.3) (0.2)
320 __lbi) 7620 (57.5)
This table uses production costs of under $35/tonne.
200
Centrally Planned
China USSR Others
210 (1.6) 1300 (9 .8)
325 (2.4)
-----1835 (13.8)
Phosphate
WORLD RESERVE BASE (million tonnes and% of total)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Australia 500 ( 1.4) Algeria 250 (0. 7) China 210 (0.6) Canada 40 (0.1) Brazil 350 (1.0) USSR 1300 (3.6) Finland 110 (0.3) Christmas Is 30 ( .. ) Other 325 (0.9) S Africa 2500 (6.9) Colombia 100 (0.3) Turkey 30 ( .. ) Egypt 800 (2.2) USA 5200 (14.4) Israel 190 (0.5)
Jordan 510 (1.5) Mexico 120 (0.4) Morocco 22000 (60.8) + W Sahara Nauru 10 ( .. ) Senegal 170 (0.5) Togo 20 (0.2) Tunisia 300 (0.8) Peru 140 (0.4) Syria 180 (0.5) Venezuela 10 ( .. ) Others ____llQ ~) ---------
Totals 8380 (23.2) 25910 (71.8) 1835 (5.1) Grand Total 36125
This table uses production costs of under $100/tonne.
World resources are immense and deposits are now being discovered on the continental shelf.
201
Phosphate
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION (million tonnes and% of total 1985/86 Averages)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Finland 0.52 (0.4) Algeria 1.21 (0.9) China 8.24 (5.8) S Africa 2.68 ( 1. 9) Braz i 1 4.34 (3.1) N Korea 0.50 (0.4) Sweden 0.19 (0.1) Christmas Is 1.03 (0.7) USSR 32.35 (22.8) USA 44.77 (31.6) Egypt 0.76 (0.5) Vietnam 0.25 (0.2) Others 0.05 ( .. ) India 0.80 (0.6)
Iraq 1.00 (0.7) Israel 2.36 ( 1. 7) Jordan 6.16 (4.3) Mexico 0.79 (0.6) Morocco 20.98 (14.8) Nauru 1.50 ( 1.1) Senegal 1.84 (1. 3) Syria 1.42 ( 1. 0) Togo 2.38 (1. 7) Tunisia 5.15 (3.6) Zimbabwe 0.14 (0.1) Others 0.22 ~) ---- ----
Totals 48.21 (34.0) 52.08 (36.8) 41.34 (29.2) Grand Tota 1 141.63
WORLD PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY 2 1985
Developed Developing Centrally Planned Total
S Africa 4.7 Algeria 2.3 China 16.0 USA 65.0 Christmas Is 1.8 USSR 35.0 Others 2.0 Israel 3.5 Others 1.0
Jordan 6.5 Mexico 0.6 Morocco & W
Sahara 30.0 Nauru 2.0 Senegal 2.1 Togo 3.2 Tunisia 7.0 Others 14.9
Totals 71.7 73.9 52.0 197.6
202
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000:
CONSUMPTION
European Community Japan United States Other Western world
Total Western world
Total world
1985/86 Averages '000 tonnes
13392 2221
33772 44170
93555
141566
very large
5 : 1
Source: British Sulphur Corporation Statistics
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (USA) (%)
Fertilisers and animal feed supplements 93
Industrial and food grade products 7
VALUE OF ANNUAL PRODUCTION
Phosphate
% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86
-0.1 -0.9 5.5 9.1
5.2
5.7
-3.8 -3.1 -1.6 9.9
0.8
1.2
$5.4 billion (at average of 1987 price for Floridan and Moroccan rock).
SUBSTITUTES
No substitutes for agricultural applications.
Reduction in level of sodium tripolyphosphate in detergents by substitution with other compounds.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Mining of deep deposits.
203
Phosphate
PRICES
Florida, land pebble, export 74-75% BPL, $/st
Florida land pebble Real 1987 price
Moroccan 75-77% BPL fas Casablanca $/tonne
1982 1983
33.5 32.5
34.4 32.9
48.5 48.5
Note: Moroccan price is nominal only.
1984 1985 1986 1987
32.2 26.8 26.0 26.0
31.9 26.5 26.7 26.0
48.5 48.5 48.5 48.5
Prices are fixed on contract basis depending on quality and grade. Phosphate fertiliser contracts are usually short term in duration whilst acid business has annual contracts with six months' pricing. Actual prices are not published and the above are only guidelines. US prices usually lag behind Moroccan.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
Fertiliser and acid markets now supplied mainly by large integrated producers, normally government controlled, with captive phosphate rock. Morocco, USSR and USA produce 70% of world production but new developments, including attendant acid and fertiliser plants, are coming onstream worldwide and are diversifying supply sources.
204
Phosphate
PHOSPHATE Florida land pebble 74-75% BPL
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
140
130
120
110
100
90~--------~-------.,-------~---------.--------, 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
205
Phosphate
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes) Mine production 44773
(marketable)
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes) Phosphate rock (gross) 1048 13044 2245 281 Superphosphates 245 866 50 3 Basic slag 5.3 1.4
Source of Net Imports (%)
Phosphate rock (gross} 1986 onl~ European Community 3 United States 19 54 Algeria 2 Israel 5 12 1 Jordan 2 13 Morocco 61 39 25 7 Senegal 25 5 3 S Africa 5 1 Syria 2 Togo 7 91 Tunisia 3 3 Others and unidentified 4 4 3 2
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes) Phosphate rock 2.0 16.7 9730 Superphosphates 0.7 121 15.6 1329 Basic slag 134
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes) Phosphate rock 1029 13392 2221 33772
206
Phosphate
UK EC(10) Japan USA
ImEort DeEendence Imports as % of consumption 100 97 100 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports 100 97 100
Share of World ConsumEtion (%)
Total world 1 9 2 24 Western world 1 14 2 36
ConsumEtion Growth (% p.a.) 1970s 0.6 1.7 0.8 4.3
(based on rock imports)
207
PLATINUM GROUP (Platinum, Palladium, Iridium, Osmium, Rhodium, Ruthenium)
WORLD RESERVES (tonnes and% of total)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Canada 250 (0.4} Colombia 49770 (88.7} Zimbabwe ~__j_QA)
very small
USSR 5900 (10.5} S Africa USA Totals Grand Total
50270 (89.5} 5900 (10.5} 56170
The different deposits of platinum group metals have markedly different ratios between the constituent metals. The US Bureau of Mines gives the following breakdowns for the main deposits (in percentage by weight}.
Platinum Pa 11 adium Iridium Rhodium Ruthenium Osmium
Colombia 93 1 3 2 Canada - Sudbury 43 45 2 4 4 S Africa - Merensky 61 26 1 3 8
- Bushveld 47 32 2 7 11 USSR - Norilsk 25 67 2 3 2 USA - Stillwater 20 78 1
- Duluth 18 78 1 2 1
The approximate breakdown of reserves between the different metals in the main deposits is as follows (in tonnes):
S Africa USSR Canada
Platinum 11975 1900 125 Palladium 7870 3730 125 Rhodium 1555 125 Others 3170 145 Totals 24570 5900 250
The world reserve base of platinum group metals is 66,000 tonnes and world resources are around 100,000 tonnes.
208
1 2 1 1 1
Platinum group
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION 2 1985/86 2 and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY 2 1985 (kilograms and% of total)
Mine % of Productive Production Production Capacity
Developed Australia 498 (0.2) 620 Canada 9613 (3.9) 18665 Finland 65 ( .. ) 310 Japan (a) 2083 (0.8) S Africa 113530 (46.3) 124415 USA 125 ( .. ) 310 Yugoslavia 105 ( .. ) 310
Total 126019 (51.3) 144630
Developing Colombia 368 (0.2) 620 Ethiopia 4 ( .. ) Indonesia n/a 50 Papua New Guinea n/a Philippines 620 Zimbabwe 48 ( .. ) 310
Total 420 (0.2) 1700
Centrall~ Planned China n/a 310 USSR 118975 (48.5) 124415
Total 118975 (48.5) 124725
TOTAL 245414 271055
(a) Japanese smelter/refinery recovery from ores originating elsewhere (including Australia, Canada, Papua New Guinea and Philippines), but this is not thought to result in substantial double counting.
The estimated breakdown of 1985's production was, in percentages:
Platinum Palladium Iridium Ruthenium Rhodium Osmium
42 47
2 5 3 1
209
Platinum group
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000:
CONSUMPTION (Platinum and Palladium)
Japan USA Other Western world Total Western world
1983/84 Averages kilograms
71695 63765 41525
176985
229
10 : 1
% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86
10.1 6.3 n/a n/a
5.8 2.8 7.2 4.9
Demand for other platinum group metals amounts to around 16,000 kilograms.
Source: Johnson Matthey.
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (%)
USA Japan Platinum Palladium Rhodium Iridium Ruthenium Osmium Pt Grp. Pt Grp.
Automotive 64 16 72 2 1 38 Electrical 11 30 7 13 59 22 Chemical 8 4 5 7 24 2 7 Dental 2 38 1 3 98 19 Jewellery 1 1 3 9 1 1 Petroleum
refining 3 6 4 Others 11 6 11 66 15 9
VALUE OF CONTAINED METAL IN ANNUAL PRODUCTION
$2.75 billion (at average 1987 prices for the various metals, weighted according to 1985 production split).
210
14 25 16 12 25
5
Platinum group
SUBSTITUTES
Usually easier to substitute metals of the platinum group for one another, especially in alloys, than to use alternate materials.
Substitutes in electrical uses include tungsten, nickel, silver, gold and silicon carbide.
Alternative catalysts include nickel, molybdenum, tungsten, chromium, cobalt, vanadium, silver and rare-earth materials, but normally with efficiency and cost penalties. However rhenium has been used most satisfactorily for part of platinum in petroleum-refining catalysts.
Stainless steel and ceramics can be used where corrosion resistance is of primary concern.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Recovery from radio-active waste and the creation of artificial platinum group metals in nuclear power reactors, but both seem improbable in the foreseeable future.
Increased recovery of PGM in automotive catalytic converters. The lean burn engine, reduced lead content in petrol and electric cars could reduce application in this field.
Use of tin-lead alloys as substitutes for precious metals in electronic applications.
A major area of growth is in fuel cells. The phosphoric acid fuel cell is technically well proven and industrial applications are developing rapidly.
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
$/trot oz Platinum US Producer 475.0 475.0 475.0 475.0 527.1 600 Nymex Spot 327.2 425.7 358.8 293.1 466.3 559.0 US Producer Real 1987 price 487.5 487.2 471.0 470.2 541.1 600 Palladium: NY dealer 67.3 138.4 149.6 106.8 114.9 125.5 Iridium: NY dealer 367.5 314.9 429.8 446.1 421.4 367.9 Osmium: NY dealer 132.5 135.4 475.8 958.3 753.8 647.3 Rhodium: World 600 600 625 925.4 1190.1 1243.0 Ruthenium: NY dealer 26.7 29.4 106.3 105.8 75.9 72.3
* List price suspended.
211
Platinum group
Combination of producer and dealer pr1c1ng, with futures trading in the USA. Can be subject to speculative activity.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
Most mining is in association with nickel-copper ores with the USSR, S Africa (Rustenburg and Impala), and Canada (Inco) to a lesser extent, controlling the market. All are integrated producers. S Africa controls producer price of platinum and USSR that of palladium, and can influence world spot price by curtailing production and purchasing excess metal. As usage of platinum group metals in automotive exhaust catalysts matures in the USA, there will be a rising supply of secondary material. This will however be more than offset by demands for primary material in Europe as European automotive emission standards are tightened in the late 1980s. Secondary recovery currently accounts for approximately 12% of total platinum supply.
212
100
90
80
PLATINUM US producer
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
rea; 798?• -- •errns -- .... ........
money terms
Platinum group
'----
70~--------~--------r-------~--------~------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
213
Platinum group
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
Production (1985/86 Averages) (kilograms) Mine production Refinery production:
New metal Secondary metal
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (kilograms of Pt group) Ores and concentrates Waste and scrap Unwrought metal, inc. alloys Semi-manufactures, inc. alloys
Source of Net Imports (%)
Canada European Community S Africa Switzerland United States USSR Mexico Taiwan Others
UK
n/a n/a
EC(10)
n/a n/a
Japan
2083
USA
125
638 37807
73000 gross n/a 18000 gross n/a
n/a n/a
50226 28936
65 19728 107471 5868
22500 28500 16500
A 11 forms Unwrought & semi- A 11 forms manufactures & alloys
16 1 9 15 13 31 50 30 36 44 9 26 2 1 5 14 9
20 36 7 3
3 1 5 9 1 4
Most ores and concentrates imported into the UK for refining are from South Africa, whose importance is thus much greater in world trade than this table suggests.
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (kilograms) Unwrought & semi-manufactures inc. alloys, ores & concentrates 55000
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (kilograms) n/a
32000 3128
n/a 88000 Note: These are from a different source from the data shown earlier.
214
25495
98103
Platinum group
UK EC(10) Japan USA
lmEort DeEendence Imports as % of consumption 100 100 98 100
(exc. secondary) Imports as % of consumption
and net exports 100 100 98 100 (exc. secondary)
Share of World ConsumEtion (%) Insufficient information is published to complete this section, especially bearing in mind the large secondary recovery of platinum group metals.
ConsumEtion Growth (% p.a.) 1970s n/a
215
n/a 10.1 6.3
POTASH
WORLD RESERVES (million tonnes K20 and% of total)
Developed
Canada France W Germany Italy Spain UK USA Totals Grand Total
1300 {18.6) 40 {0 .6)
500 {7.1) 30 {0.4) 40 {0.6) 25 {0.4)
_§Q~)
1995 {28.5)
Developing
Brazil Chile Israel Jordan Others (a)
7000
60 ( 0. 9) 10 {0.1)
300 ( 4.3) 300 ( 4.3) 335 {4.8)
1005 (14.4)
Centrally Planned
China E Germany USSR
200 (2.9) 800 {11.4)
3000 {42.9)
4000 {57.1)
(a) Bolivia, Ethiopia, Laos, Mexico, Peru, Tunisia and Thailand.
The world's reserve base is estimated at approximately 18,000 million tonnes, of which 54% is located in Canada and 21% in the USSR. Total world resources exceed 250,000 million tonnes, much of it only recoverable through solution mining techniques due to depth.
216
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION 1 1985/86 1 and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY 1 1985 (million tonnes of K20 and % of total)
Mine Production
Developed Canada France W Germany Italy Spain UK USA
Total
Developing Chile Israel Jordan
Total
Centrall~ Planned China E Germany USSR
Total
TOTAL
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000:
6.82 1.68 2.37 0.18 0.68 0.37 1.25
13.35
0.02 1.18 0.61 1.81
0.04 3.46 9.98
13.48
28.64
over 300
19 : 1
217
% of Production
(23.8) (5.9) (8.3) (0.6) (2.4) ( 1.3) (4.4)
(46.6)
(0.1) (4.1) (2.1) (6.3)
(0.1) (13.1) (34.8) (47.1)
Potash
Productive Capacity
9.78 1.75 2.70 0.23 0.70 0.40 1. 79
17.41
0.03 1.30 0.70 2.03
0.03 3.50
10.97 14.50
33.94
Potash
CONSUMPTION
1985/86 Averages '000 tonnes K20
European Community Japan United States Other Countries Western world Total world
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (USA) (%)
4260 600 ( approx. )
5095 5235
15190 25620
Fertiliser industry 95 Other (primarily caustic potash-
chlorine plants) 5
VALUE OF ANNUAL PRODUCTION
$1.2 billion (at average 1987 prices)
SUBSTITUTES
% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86
1.5 (approx.) 1.0 4.5
n/a n/a n/a
0.4 -3.3 -4.4 n/a -0.5 1.0
Potash used in industrial applications can sometimes be replaced by sodium compounds.
No substitutes for agricultural use.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Recovery from low grade resources or as a by-product in the production of alumina from alunite.
New industrial applications, eg: electrical plants.
Extensive and intensive cropping changes. The effect of fertiliser pollution on water supplies could reduce potash consumption especially in developing countries.
218
PRICES
Saskatchewan Standard $/st
Real 1987 prices
1982
111.5
114.4
1983
63.3
64.3
1984
55
54.6
1985
51.25
50.73
1986
41.0
42.1
Producer list pricing for long term contracts. Discounting prevalent.
Potash
1987
38.0
38.0
The United States, producers temporarily obtained protection against Canadian imports via dumping duties in late 1987, being some pro-rating of Canadian production and higher prices.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
USSR, E Germany, N America and W Europe provide almost all the world's supply of potash. USSR production fluctuates considerably with consequent effect on world market. A high proportion of Canadian production, second after USSR, is controlled by provincial government (Saskatchewan). The potash market is highly dependent on the state of the world farming economy.
219
Potash
300
250
200
150
POTASH Saskatchewan standard
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
100~--------~--------~-------,---------r------~~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
220
Potash
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC(lO) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes K20) 372 4610 1249
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes) A 11 forms (K20) 265 1215 n/a 4402
( approx.) ( approx.) Potassium chloride (gross wt) 1054 7147 Under 40% K20 25 n/a n/a 40-60% K20 504 2347 n/a n/a Over 60% K20 19 35 n/a n/a Potassium sulphate (gross wt) 6.85 21 185 51
Source of Net Imports (%) (KCl only) (KCl only)
Canada 5 13 47 92 European Community 37 17 1 Spain 1 9 United States 1 8 East Germany 47 27 4 1 USSR 8 23 18 Israel 2 22 1 5 Jordan 6 3 Others 1 2
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes) All forms (K20) 43 585 530
( approx.) ( approx.) Potassium chloride (gross wt) 139 704 Under 40% K20 0.3 13 40-60% K20 85 744 Over 60% K20 1 17 Potassium sulphate (gross wt) 0.5 382 123
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes K20) 517 4260 600 5095
( approx.)
221
Potash
UK EC(lO) Japan USA
Im~ort De~endence
Imports as % of consumption 51 29 n/a 86 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports 47 25 n/a 78
Share of World Consum~tion (%) Total world 2 17 2 20 Western World 3 28 4 34
Consum~tion Growth (% p.a.) 1970s -0.7 1.5 1.0 4.5
(approx)
222
RARE EARTH MINERALS & METALS
WORLD RESERVES
The rare earth elements are the group of 15 chemically similar elements with atomic numbers between 57 and 71 incusive: lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, neodymium, promethium, samarium, europium (together making up the 'light' or 'cerium' subgroup), gladolinium, terbium, dysprosium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium and lutetium (which together with yttrium, not itself a rare earth element but invariably associated with them in nature, make up the 'heavy' or 'yttrium' subgroup).
The main sources of rare earths are the ores bastnaesite (a fluorocarbonate) and monazite (a phosphate). Small quantities also occur in the mineral xeriotime, but this is primarily a source of yttrium.
{'000 tonnes of Rare Earth Oxides (REO) and% of total)
Developed
Australia 345 {0.8) Canada 164 {0.4) S Africa 357 {0.8) USA 5500 (12.2) Others 50 {0.1)
-----Totals 6416 (14.2) Grand Total
The reserve base contains
Developing
Brazil 20 ( .. ) Egypt 100 (0.2) India 1800 (4.0) Madagascar 50 {0.1) Malawi 297 (0.7) Malaysia 30 {0.1) S Korea 45 {0.1) Others _1§_ ___(QJ_)
2370 {5.3) 45236
47 million tonnes of REO.
Centrally Planned
China USSR
36000 {79.5) 450 {1.0)
36450 (80.5)
The rare earths occur in many other minerals and are recoverable as by-products from phosphate rock and from spent uranium leaching. World resources are thought to be very large.
223
Rare Earth Minerals & Metals
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION, 1985/86, and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985 (tonnes of REO content and% of total)
Developed Australia USA (inc monazite)
Total
Developing Brazi 1 India Malaysia Sri Lanka Thailand Zaire
Total
Centralll Planned China USSR
Total
TOTAL
Mine Production
8170 14250 22420
965 2200 3800 120 250
7335
6700 1500 8200
c 38000
% of Production
{21.6) (37.5)
(59.1)
(2.5) (5.8)
(10.0) (0.3) (0.7)
(19.3)
(17.6) (4.0)
(21.6)
Productive Capacity
10000 29000 39000
1200 5800 4500 180 250 180
12110
20100 1500
21600
72710
Indonesia, Nigeria and N Korea may also produce rare earth concentrates.
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIO
The data are not sufficiently complete for precise estimates. The varying proportions of the different elements in each deposit also reduce the relevance of overall averages. These are, nonetheless, roughly as follows:
Static reserve base life (years): Ratio of reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000:
very substantial
about 60 : 1
224
CONSUMPTION
European Community Japan USA
1985/86 Averages (tonnes of REO)
n/a 4054
11950 (apparent)
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (USA) (%)
Petroleum cracking catalysts 31 Metallurgical uses 37 Ceramics and glass 29 Others, including phosphors,
electronics, nuclear energy and lighting 3
SUBSTITUTES
Rare Earth Minerals & Metals
% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86
n/a n/a 5.2
n/a n/a -6.9
Available in many applications but usually at the expense of performance.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Increased use in X-ray screens, glass screens of colour TV tubes, fluorescent lamps, permanent magnets and electronics (including computers).
Use in alloys to store hydrogen in fuel cells and heat exchangers and as cryogenic refrigerants.
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
Ore - Bastnaesite us ¢/lb 105 105 105 105 105 105
Monazite A$/L T 415.0 425.0 444.2 588.3 875.3 748.3
Real 1985 price 425.9 431.5 441.3 582.3 898.3 748.3
Most rare earths are sold in the form of mixed rare earth compounds. Prices are usually set by major producers but vary widely according to purity, source, availability, size of order and nature of contract.
225
Rare Earth Minerals & Metals
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
Principal producers of rare earth concentrates are the US, Australia, Malaysia, Brazil, India, China and USSR, accounting for 95% of world REO production. Refinery production and consumption are concentrated in the US, UK, Japan, France (and possibly, USSR). High purity compounds and metal are traded largely among the industrialised countries.
226
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
RARE EARTHS Monazite
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
" "
'I 'I
Rare Earth Minerals & Metals
50~--------r--------r--------.-------~--------. 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
227
Rare Earth Minerals & Metals
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK
Mine Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes REO)
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Monazite
Rare earth oxides Rare earth metals inc. alloys Ferrocerium & other
pyrophoric alloys Other rare earth compounds
(a) 1986 only
Source of Net Imports (%)
Monazite Australia India Rare earth oxides Austria European Community Japan Norway USA Malaysia China USSR Others
Metals and alloys Austria European Community USA Brazil China USSR Others and undefined
n/a
n/a 31
16 2237 (a)
228
EC(lO)
n/a
n/a 427
n/a
74
1 11
14
Japan
n/a
961 96
30 5222
1 28
24 1
43 2 1
6 8
38 47
USA
14250
2380 (REO content)
251 142
104 148
97 3
78 4 2
9 6 2
19
74 2 4 1
Rare Earth Minerals & Metals
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Net Exports {1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Ores and concentrates n/a n/a n/a 3926
(REO content) Metals and alloys 48.5 65 262(a) Ferrocerium and other
pyrophoric alloys 11.5 n/a 26 (REO content)
(a) Including alkali and alkaline earth metals
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) (REO content) n/a n/a 4054 11950
Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption 100 100 100 c. 20 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports 100 100 100 c. 15
Share of World Consumption (%)
Total world n/a n/a n/a c. 37
Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s n/a n/a n/a 5.2
229
RHENIUM
WORLD RESERVES (tonnes of metal and% of total)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Canada 320 (10.7) Chile 1180 (39.4) USSR 225 (7.5) USA 1000 (33.4) Peru 180 (6.0)
Others ----- _19_~) ---Totals 1320 (44.1) 1450 (48.4) 225 Grand Total 2995
Rhenium is obtained as a by-product of molybdenite in porphyry copper operations. The reserve base is 10,300 tonnes of which over 80% is in Canada, the USA and Chile.
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION (kilograms and % of total 1985/86 Averages)
(7.5)
Note: These figures refer to recoverable rather than contained production.
Developed
Canada USA
Totals Grand Total
2009 (9) 4130 (20)
6139 (29)
Developing
Chile Mexico Peru Iran
20839
7000 (34) 1000 (5) 1400 ( 7) llOO _ill
10500 (51)
Source: Intermet Molybdenum Database 1987. A Sutulov
WORLD REFINERY CAPACITY, 1987
Centrally Planned
USSR 4200 (20)
4200 (20)
World refinery capacity totals some 27,000 kg, of which 6,400 kg are located in the USA and 5400 kg in Chile. Other major refiners, using imported concentrates, are W Germany (43,00 kg), Finland, (4,175 kg), Japan (1,200 kg), Sweden (900 kg), France (250 kg), UK (500 kg), Belgium (250 kg) and the USSR (3,600 kg). Some of the plants in the USA and W Germany are not operating.
Production of rhenium by final producers totalled 17,360 kg in 1985/6. (Chile 5,500 kg, W Germany 1,770 kg, USSR 4,100 kg, Poland through Finland 4,200 kg, USA 1,100 kg, Others 2,500 kg).
230
RESERVE PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years) Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000
CONSUMPTION
Rhenium
143
35 : 1
Data on rhenium consumption are scarce. United States consumption averaged 5,900 kilograms in 1985/86. It increased at an average compound rate of 7.2% per annum in the 1970s, and 10% p.a. from 1980-86. Japanese consumption in 1985/86 was c. 440 kilograms.
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (USA) (%)
Petroleum refining Other
90 10
VALUE OF CONTAINED METAL IN ANNUAL REFINED PRODUCTION
$18 million (contained metal at average 1987 prices).
SUBSTITUTES
Non-rhenium catalysts are becoming more common. Iridium, gallium, germanium and silicon are among the metals being evaluated.
Substitutes in other applications are cobalt and tungsten for coatings on Xray tubes, rhodium and rhodium-iridium for high temperature thermocouples, tungsten and platinum-ruthenium for coatings on electrical contacts and tungsten and tantalum for electron emitters.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Use in high temperature applications such as nickel-base alloys, especially in aircraft engine components.
Radiation screens, semi-conductors, resistors, small electromagnets, heat shields, diverse catalytic reactions are all possible new uses.
Changes in petroleum refining techniques are having a detrimental effect on rhenium consumption at refineries but there is potential for a significant increase in the use of rhenium in car exhaust catalysts with the move to unleaded petrol.
231
Rhenium
PRICES
US Metal Powder 99.99% $/lb
US Metal Powder Real 1987 price
Perrhenic acid $/lb
1982
410
421
375
1983
300
304
250
1984
300
297
200
1985
300
299
200
1986
350
359
200
1987
475
475
300
Rhenium is largely a by-product of molybdenite which itself is recovered with or from porphyry copper ores. Production therefore is mainly dependent on Cu-Mo industry. Demand is heavily dependent on requirements of the petroleum industry. Dealer market.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
Main sources of ore are Chile, Canada, USA and USSR, but recovery is concentrated in USA, Germany, Sweden, Chile and USSR.
232
Rhenium
RHENIUM US metal powder 99.99%
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
100
90
80
70
60~------~--------~------~--------~------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
233
Rhenium
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
Production (1985/86 Averages) (kilograms)
UK EC(10)
Mine output Refined output negligible 2200
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (kilograms of contained rhenium) Metal c. 2000(a) Ammonium perrhenate n/a
(a) 1986 only
Source of Net Imports (%) (metal, perrhenic acid & ammonium perrhenate) European Community Most
Chile Others Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (kilograms) Metal c. 1000(a) (a) 1986 only
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (kilograms contained rhenium) n/a
Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption 100 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports 100 (a) Based on mine output
Share of World Consumption (%)
Total world n/a
Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s n/a
234
( approx.)
n/a n/a
Figures not available
(ores mainly from Canada, Chile & Peru)
n/a
n/a
100
100
n/a
n/a
Japan
n/a
n/a n/a
Figures not available
440
100
100
3
n/a
USA
4855 1100
( approx.)
2367 3518
25
68 7
5900
19 (a)
19 (a)
34
7.2
SELENIUM
WORLD RESERVES ('000 tonnes of metal and% of total)
Developed
Australia Canada USA Others
Totals Grand Total
2 (2 .4) 11 (13.3) 12 (14.4) 3 (3.6)
28 (33.7)
Developing
Chile Mexico Papua N. Guinea Peru Philippines Zaire Zambia Others
83
17 (20.5) 4 (4.8) 1 (1.2) 3 (3.6) 3 (3.6) 6 (7.2) 7 (8.4) ___£~)
47 (56.6)
Centrally Planned
Poland USSR Others
2 (2.4) 4 (4.8) 2 (2.4)
8 (9.6)
The reserve base is 130.000 tonnes. Selenium occurs as a by-product with copper. and the above figures only cover the estimated content of economic copper deposits. Substantial resources exist in association with other metals and coal deposits and in currently uneconomic copper deposits.
WORLD REFINERY PRODUCTION (tonnes of metal and % of total 1985/86 Averages)
Selenium is recovered mainly from the anode slimes obtained from electrolytic refining of copper. Because the selenium content of copper ore varies widely it is impossible to estimate mine production accurately. The following figures cover refinery output.
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Australia n/a Chile 45 USSR n/a Belgium 68 India 4 Canada 348 Mexico 41 Finland 17 Peru 13 W Germany n/a Zambia 17 Japan 462 Sweden 65 USA 170 Yugoslavia 46 Totals 1176 120 Grand Total 1296
Note: Because the totals are incomplete no percentages are shown. Total world mine production has probably been around 1.900-2.000 tonnes and total refined output some 1.200 to 1.600 tonnes in recent years. In 1986 output was well up on 1985. level at 1.455 tonnes.
235
Selenium
Selenium is recovered in Canada and the UK from used electronic and photocopier components and recycled. The USA exports material to UK for recovery.
WORLD REFINERY CAPACITY, 1985
Western world refinery capacity is 2,310 tonnes concentrated in the USA (500 tonnes), Canada (650 tonnes), Japan (550 tonnes) and W Europe (430 tonnes).
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): very large Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000:
CONSUMPTION
3.7 : 1
1985/86 Averages tonnes
European Community Japan United States
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (%)
600 328 552
Electronic and photocopier components Glass manufacturing Chemicals and pigments Other
VALUE OF CONTAINED METAL IN ANNUAL PRODUCTION
USA
35 30 25 10
% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86
n/a 1.0
-5.0
Japan
61 15 8
16
n/a 7.7 6.5
W. world
30-35 20
25-30 20
$16.5 million (Western world refined metal at 1987 average prices).
SUBSTITUTES
Substitutes exist in most end uses. Organic chemicals are used in photocopying machines, silicon substitutes in rectifier applications and cerium in glass manufacturing. Lead, bismuth and tellurium may be used in steel applications.
236
Selenium
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Hydro-metallurgical processes for leaching copper sulphide concentrates to recover copper would mean that selenium could not be recovered.
Increased recovery from flue dust and scrap. New uses utilising electrophotographic properties. Toxicity will limit use in pigments.
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
European free market cif
Real 1985 price
Source: Metal Bulletin
3.7
3.8
4.1
4.2
9.2
9.1
7.4
7.3
5.54
5.69
5.76
5.76
Selenium is derived from anode slimes obtained from refining of copper and production is therefore independent of demand. There have been both producer pricing and a dealer market with the former having almost ceased to exist in the recent period of oversupply.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
Canada, Chile and the USA are the largest mine producers, Canada and Japan the two largest refinery producers. The Selenium-Tellurium Development Association promotes interest in new uses of these two metals.
237
Selenium
160
140
120
100
80
SELENIUM European free Mkt cif
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
60~--------~------~--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
238
Selenium
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes contained selenium) Mine production n/a Refinery production (Belgium) 462 170
68 of which (West Germany) c. 90
n/a secondary
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes contained selenium) Metal 405 350 10 393
(inc. waste and scrap)
Source of Net Imports (%)
Metal Canada 20 38 4 31 European Community 50 19 43 Finland 2 2 Japan 9 25 20 Sweden 3 3 United States 6 6 2 Chile 1 1 Philippines 50 3 South Korea 25 Others 10 25 1
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes contained selenium) Metal 133 75 222 158
(inc. waste and scrap)
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes contained selenium) c. 275 c. 500 328 552
239
Selenium
UK EC(10)
Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption 100 100 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports 100 100 (a) Allowing for import of original raw material, totally self sufficient in refined output.
Share of World Consumption (%) Western world (approx.)
Consumption Growth (% p.a.)
17 31
1970s 2.6 n/a (based on net imports)
240
Japan USA
(a) 100 (a) 71
(a) 100 (a) 55
but partially or
21 35
1.0 -5
SILICON
WORLD RESERVES
Silicon is an important constituent of quartzite and other sandstones. There are ample reserves in most major producing countries in relation to demand. Estimates of total reserves, and of their geographical distribution, are not available.
WORLD PRODUCTION OF SILICON METAL ('000 tonnes and% of total 1985/86 Averages)
Developed
Canada France Italy Norway Portugal S Africa Spain Sweden Switzerland USA Yugoslavia Totals Grand Total
Developing
26 (4.1) Brazil 70 (11.0) India 13 (2.0)
101 (15.9) 9 (1.4)
35 (5.5) 62 (9. 7) 20 (3.1) 2 (0.3)
111 (17 .5) ~_lbl)
488 (76.7) 636
241
33 (5.2) 3 (0.5)
36 ( 5. 7)
C~trally Planned
China 22 (3.5) Czecho s 1 ovak i a 5 (0.8) E Germany 4 (0.6) Hungary 2 (0.3) Poland 11 (1. 7) USSR 63 (9.9) Romania 5 (0.8)
112 (17.6)
Silicon
WORLD PRODUCTIVE CAPACITIES~ SILICON METAL AND FERROSILICON, 1985 ('000 tonnes of silicon content)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned Metal FeSi Metal FeSi Metal FeSi
Australia 19 Argentina 13 China 24 163 Canada 43 93 Braz i 1 40 163 N Korea 25 France 73 134 Egypt 46 USSR 73 512 W Germany 12 37 India 7 59 E Europe 25 123 Iceland 41 Mexico 21 Italy 24 80 Philippines 21 Japan 252 S Korea 34 Norway 87 308 Taiwan 27 Portugal 41 23 Venezuela 53 S Africa 36 81 Zimbabwe 36 Spain 25 75 Others 5 Sweden 21 USA 166 328 Yugoslavia 45 78 Others 8 6 Totals 581 1555 47 478 122 823
Total world capacity: Si metal 750 FeSi 2856
Ferrosilicon includes silvery pig iron and other silicon additives.
242
Silicon
WORLD PRODUCTION OF FERROSILICON ('000 tonnes and % of total 1985/86 Averages)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Australia 17 (0.5) Argentina 19 (0.6) Bulgaria 15 (0.5) Canada 86 (2.6) Braz i 1 204 (6.2) China 195 (5.9) France 196 (6.0) Colombia 1 ( .. ) Czecho-W Germany 104 (3.2) Egypt 7 (0.2) sl ov ak i a 29 (0.9) Iceland 63 ( 1. 9) India 40 ( 1. 2) E Germany 24 (0. 7) Italy 63 ( 1. 9) Mexico 22 (0. 7) Hungary 9 (0.3) Japan 129 (3.9) Philippines 20 (0.6) N Korea 30 (0.9) Norway 369 (11.2) S Korea 33 ( 1. 0) Poland 51 (1. 5) Portugal 7 (0.2) Taiwan 15 (0.5) USSR 775 (23.5) S Africa 79 (2.4) Venezuela 44 ( 1. 3) Romania 50 ( 1. 5) Spain 61 ( 1. 9) Zimbabwe 52 ( 1. 6) Sweden 27 (0.8) Switzer 1 and 3 (0.1) Turkey 7 (0.2) USA 354 (10.8) Yugoslavia ~~) --- -----Totals 1657 (50.3) 457 (13.9) 1178 (35.8) Grand Total 3292
The silicon content of ferrosilicon varies widely. The average in the USA in 1986 was 53% but varied from 25-55%. Capacities in the previous table show estimated silicon contents.
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
For practical purposes so large as to be infinite.
CONSUMPTION
Si 1 icon metal European Community Japan United States
1985/86 Averages '000 tonnes
160 103 113
Ferrosilicon (gross weight) European Community 665
145 286
Japan United States
3
% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86
n/a 10.3 6.9
2 approx. 5 0.8
n/a 5.9
n/a -16.4 -5.8
Silicon
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (USA) (%)
Transport Machinery Construction Chemicals Other
32 17 13 20 18
This covers the usage of silicon in all forms.
VALUE OF ANNUAL PRODUCTION
$4.0 billion (at average 1987 prices of silicon and ferrosilicon).
SUBSTITUTES
Aluminium is among the alternatives for ferrosilicon as a deoxidiser in steel but at higher cost and production of side effects. Aluminium-silicon alloys can be replaced by some other aluminium alloys.
Germanium can be used in semiconductor and infra-red applications.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Expansion of use in alloys particularly as a substitute for expensive additives such as chromium. Research in electronics is increasing use and demand for high purity silicon. Development of economically competitive silicon photovoltaic cells would increase demand also, although no major breakthrough seems likely at the moment.
Silicon faces a potential threat in the mass electronic chip market from gallium arsenide, but this is a small market for silicon. The total demand for high grade silicon from which chips are made is some 5,000 tonnes/year in the Western world.
Further development of high performance silicon-base ceramics as a substitute for superalloys and other metals in high temperature or highly corrosive situations.
244
Silicon
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986
Metal UK 98% min £/tonne 650 701.3 862.5 953.3 863.1 (Source: Metal Bulletin)
Metal US 0.35% Fe/0.07% Ca ¢/lb 69.8 60.1 66.9 68.7 68.1
Metal US Real 1987 price 71.6 61.0 66.5 67.9 69.9
Ferrosilicon US Producer 75-77% Si ¢/lb 45.3 42.8 42.4 42.9 43.5
Prices mainly determined on contract basis of 3-6 months. Energy costs important.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
Wide range of companies involved from integrated producers to one phase operators. Increasingly, location of ferrosilicon and silicon metal smelters in low power cost countries. Tendency also towards plant specialisation.
245
1987
865
68.1
68.1
42.3
Silicon
SILICON US, Metal, 0.35% Fe/0.07% Ca
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
85
80,~--------r-------~--------~------~~------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
246
Silicon
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC ( 10) Japan USA
Production {1985/86 Averages) ( '000 tonnes) Silicon metal 83 111 Ferrosilicon 449 129 354
Net Imports {1985/86 Averages) ( '000 tonnes) Si 1 icon metal 35.3 90.1 103.4 46.3 Ferrosilicon 75.7 316 328 189.2
(Si content = 118)
Source of Net Imports (%)
Silicon Metal Canada 2 5 24 European Community 48 11 11 Norway 26 56 18 1 Portugal 2 2 10 S Africa 19 15 13 6 Spain 4 2 Sweden 4 9 6 3 Switzerland 6 1 United States 1 1 Yugoslavia 5 2 7 Argentina 6 Brazil 4 11 28 China 27 Others 2 1 1
F erros i1 icon Australia 1 Canada 4 17 European Community 11 6 3 Iceland 6 7 5 Norway 70 47 27 18 Portugal 1 S Africa 2 2 8 3 Spain 1 Sweden 5 1 Yugoslavia 5 6 1 USSR 4 3 8
247
Silicon
UK EC(10) Japan USA
China 4 Argentina 2 2 Brazil 1 21 22 Philippines 4 Venezuela 1 5 18 Others and unidentified 6 37 1 1
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ( '000 tonnes) Si 1 icon metal 1.35 14.6 3.4 Ferrosilicon 2.7 98.3 (a) 1.0 11.0 (a) Gross W German exports included, which may go mainly to EEC countries
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) Silicon metal c. 34 c. 158 Ferrosilicon c. 73 c. 667
(apparent) (apparent)
Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption:
Silicon metal 100 57 Ferrosilicon 100 47
Imports as % of consumption and net exports: Silicon metal 100 52 Ferrosilicon 100 41 All forms (Si content) 100 44
Share of World Consumption (%) Total world (approx. based
Silicon metal on production figures)
Ferrosilicon
Consumption growth (% p.a.) 1970s total of which: Silicon metal
Ferrosilicon
5 25 2 20
-2 2.9
-5.2
248
n/a n/a
2 (approx.)
103 145
100 100
100 100 100
16 4
5.8 10.3
5
113 286
41 66
40 64 58
18 9
2.4 6.9 0.8
SILVER
WORLD RESERVES {'000 tonnes and% of total)
Developed Developing
Australia 24 {9.8) Mexico 43 {17.6) Canada 36 {14.8) Peru 21 (8.6) USA 29 (11.9) Others 25 (10.3) Others _g~) ---Totals 101 {41.4) 89 {36.5) Grand Total 244
The reserve base is approximately 336,000 tonnes.
Centrally Planned
USSR Others
44 (18.0) 10 {4.1)
54 {22.1)
Identified world resources are estimated at 770,000 tonnes. The greater part of reserves and resources is associated with base metals such as copper, lead and zinc.
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION (tonnes of metal and % of total 1985/86 Averages)
Developed
Australia Canada Japan S Africa Spain Sweden USA Yugoslavia Others Totals Grand Total
Developing
1048 {7 .8) 1208 {9.0) 346 (2.6) 215 {1.6) 188 {1.4) 243 (1.8)
1145 {8.5)
Bolivia Chile Mexico Morocco Peru Others
167 {1.2) (a) 226 _l.Ll)
4786 {35.6) 13449
(a) Smelter production
249
103 {0.8) 509 {3.8)
2307 (17.2) 152 {1.1)
1917 {14.3) 731 (5.4)
5719 (42.5)
Centrally Planned
Poland USSR Others
830 ( 6. 2) 1610 (12.0)
504 {3. 7)
2944 {21.9)
Silver
PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985 (major producers) (tonnes of metal}
Developed Developing
Australia 1340 Mexico Canada 2020 Peru Japan 435 USA 1805 Totals 5600
2490 2020
4510
Centrally Planned
USSR 1930
1930
The above countries account for 75% of world capacity (c. 16,020 tonnes).
WESTERN WORLD SILVER SUPPLIES (tonnes of metal}
Mine production
Secondary sources of supply US Treasury Other governments Demonetized coin Indian stocks Salvage and other miscellaneous
sources Liquidation of (additions to)
private bullion stocks Net trade with Centrally Planned economies
Total other supplies
Available for world consumption
1984
9872
93 62
124 700
2336
(1328}
(600}
1387
11259
Source: The Silver Market 1986, Handy & Harman
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): 18 Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative primary demand 1987-2000: 2.1 : 1
1985 1986
9729 9496
137 295 156 124
93 31 650 345
2246 2022
(1605} 666
100 (435}
1776 3048
11505 12544
This ignores substantial secondary recovery and above ground stocks.
250
Silver
CONSUMPTION
1985/86 Averages tonnes
% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86
Industrial uses European Community (a) Japan United States Other Countries
2974 2406 3832 2264
Total industrial usage 11476
Coinage 552
Total consumption (W world) 12028
Source: Handy & Harman reports on silver
-1.9 3.9 0.8 5.2 1.1
-2.6
0.8
(a) Belgium, France, W Germany, Italy and United Kingdom only.
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (%)
This covers only industrial uses and excludes 'investment' demand.
Photography Electrical and electronic components Sterlingware and electroplated ware* Brazing alloys and solders Other
USA
47 26 6 5
15
* A higher percentage in less industrialised countries.
VALUE OF CONTAINED METAL IN ANNUAL PRODUCTION
$3.0 billion (mine production at average 1987 prices).
251
-1.3 4.3 0.4 5.0 1.4
8.9
1.8
Japan
56 9 6 5
25
Silver
SUBSTITUTES
Stainless steel is an economic alternative in table flatware. Aluminium and rhodium are used for reflecting surfaces. Tantalum is a substitute for surgical plates. pins and sutures.
Silver has been replaced in coinage in many countries by cupro-nickel. cupro-zinc. nickel and aluminium.
Gold or platinum group metals can be substituted for silver in electrical and electronic components. increasing resistance to oxidation. Silverless black and white film and xerography have replaced silver-containing films in some applications. Video and ultrasonic scanning threaten silver based photographic film in some uses.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Improvements in solid-state switching and in electroplating and cladding technology will extend life of electronic equipment. decreasing demand.
Replacement of silver batteries by lithium batteries.
Development of non-silver brazing alloys.
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
LME Cash $/troy oz 7.92 11.47 8.12 6.18 6.09 7.07
LME Cash Real 1987 price 8.13 11.64 8.07 6.12 6.25 7.07
Handy & Harman New York $/troy oz 7.95 11.44 8.14 6.14 5.47 7.02
LME Cash Monthly range £/troy oz 3.17- 5.98- 5.61- 4.05- 3.18- 3.78-
6.54 9.12 6.5 5.55 4.46 5.3
Price result from the interaction of supply and demand with variable. and sometimes considerable. speculative activity.
252
Silver
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
A fairly small share of newly mined silver is from predominantly silver ores, most gold being derived as by-product of gold, copper, lead and zinc. Demand exceeds primary supply and the deficit is supplied by secondary sources of various types. US stockpile excesses overhang the market.
253
Silver
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
SILVER LME cash
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
80~--------r--------r--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
254
Silver
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Mine production 1.7 190.6 345.6 1145.5 Refinery production:
New n/a n/a n/a 1496 Secondary (old scrap) c. 320 n/a c. 460 793
Net Im2orts (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Ores and concentrates n/a n/a 140.7 Unwrought (inc. scrap) 1948 3100 472 399.4 Wrought (inc. partly worked) 107 124 44 4086.5
Source of Net Im2orts (%)
Metal all forms Australia 7 4 5 Canada 1 31 European Community 41 21 S Africa 3 2 Spain 4 4 Sweden 3 5 Switzerland 2 11 3 United States 4 29 7 Yugoslavia 1 2 E Germany 18 12 N Korea 1 Poland 9 Chile 1 3 4 Hong Kong 7 1 Mexico 2 59 30 Peru 4 3 23 7 S Korea 5 Others and unspecified 4 12 1 3
255
Silver
Net Exports {1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Ores and concentrates Unwrought (inc. scrap) Wrought (inc. partly worked)
Consumption {1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Industrial
Coinage
Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption
UK
1387.5 309
615
(exc. coinage) 100 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports (exc. coinage) 84
Share of World Industrial Consumption (%) Western world 5
Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s -0.7
EC{10)
1774 751
3300 (approx.)
94
Japan
34.5 27.5
2375
22
53 21 {approx.) (excludes
imported ores)
29 21
-1.9 3.9
USA
8.6 413.6 353.3
3694
121
100
100
32
0.8
Note: Some of the figures in this table (e.g. on consumption) differ from those of earlier tables, derived from different sources.
256
SULPHUR
WORLD RESERVES (million tonnes and% of total)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Canada 150 (11. 7) Iraq 150 (11.7) China 25 (2.0) France 15 ( 1. 2) Mexico 80 (6.2) Poland 130 (10.1) W Germany 20 ( 1.6) Near East 60 ( 4. 7) USSR 350 (2.2) Italy 10 (0.8) Others 65 (5.1) Others 15 ( 1. 2) Japan 5 (0.4) Spain 20 ( 1. 6) USA 155 (12.1) Others ~~) --- ---Totals 410 (31.9) 355 (27.6) 520 (40.5) Grand Total 1285
The reserve base is 2,700 million tonnes with major deposits located in Canada, Iraq, the Near East, Poland and USSR. Identified world resources total 5,000 million tonnes.
WORLD PRODUCTION IN ALL FORMS ('000 tonnes and% of total 1985/86 Averages)
A significant percentage of output is a by-product of metallurgical operations or petroleum refining.
Developed
Canada Finland France W Germany Italy Japan S Africa Spain Sweden USA Yugoslavia Others Totals Grand Total
6593 (12.1) 508 (0.9)
1515 (2.8) 1572 (2.9) 488 (0.9)
2430 (4.5) 775 (1.4)
1333 (2.5) 397 (0.7)
11348 (20.9) 500 (0.9)
1724 __{_g)
29183 (53.7)
Developing
Iraq 620 (1.1) Mexico 2173 (4.0) Saudi Arabia 1200 (2.2) Others 2220 (4.1)
6213 (11.4) 54379
Centrally Planned
China N Korea Poland Romani a USSR Others
3000 (5. 5) 230 (0.4)
5108 (9.4) 320 (0.6)
9775 (18.0) 550 (1.0)
18983 (34.9)
Of the total output 22% was Frasch, 5% was native sulphur and 18% was from pyrites. The balance came from by-product sources.
257
Sulphur
PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985 (•ooo tonnes)
Developed
Canada 8300 France 2500 W Germany 2000 Italy 1100 Japan 4000 Spain 1400 USA 15900 Others 4700 Totals 39900
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Developing
Iraq Mexico Others
Static reserve life (years): 24
1000 2200 4250
7450
Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000: 1.2 1
CONSUMPTION
European Community Japan United States Other Countries Total Western world
Sulphur in all forms
1985/86 Averages •ooo tonnes
6900 2485
12378 16714 38477
Centrally Planned Economies 18959
Total world 57436
Centrally Planned
China Poland USSR Others
2900 5200
11200 1250
Total
20550 67900
% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86
0.7 -2.0 -1.4 -0.9 3.4 -1.4 5.5 4.1 3.0 0.7
n/a 0.5
n/a 0.6
Source: British Sulphur Corporation statistics and trade accounts.
258
Sulphur
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (USA) (%)
Fertilisers Other chemical products Metal mining Petroleum refining Other uses
VALUE OF ANNUAL PRODUCTION
$7.1 billion (at average 1987 prices).
SUBSTITUTES
66 10 2 8
14
Most sulphur is used in the form of sulphuric acid. Depending on relative prices, this can sometimes be replaced by hydrochloric acid, nitric acid or hydrofluoric acid.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Sulphur-asphalt paving and a non-asphalt paving with a sulphur binding are nearing commercial use.
Development of specialised sulphur concrete materials.
Extended use of sulphuric acid in the chemical industry.
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985
US Frasch, export bright, ex-terminal Holland (lon~ term contracts) /lt 149 136.5 138 155 US Frasch Real 1987 price 152.9 138.6 137.1 153.4 Liquid sulphur contracts North West Europe delivered, ex-terminal range $/tonne 146-150 122-138 123-135 149.5-164.5
1986
164.2
168.6
165.5-156
Producer pricing for long term contracts although spot market has been important during the recent recession. Transport costs very important.
259
1987
166
166
120-140
Sulphur
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
Approximately 50% of world production is from countries in which the industry is nationalised (eg: USSR, Mexico) or in which the governments have partial ownership (eg France, Spain) or exercise some measure of control (eg: Japan). Production is worldwide with elemental sulphur (frasch and brimstone) accounting for about 72% of Western world primary production, pyrites 11% and smelter gases 16%. Supply pattern likely to be restructured by 2000, as production from primary sources is phased out in favour of coproduct sources (coal, petroleum, natural gas, metal smelting) which serve to control environmental problems but at increased capital and operating costs.
260
105
100
95
90
85
SULPHUR US frasch, export bright, ex terminal Holland (long term contracts)
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
Sulphur
80~--------~------~--------~------~--------~
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
261
Sulphur
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC ( 10) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) {'000 tonnes) Sulphur in all forms 162 4813 2606 12282
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) 761.2 1538 1 1726
Source of Net Imports (%) Canada 35 57 European Community United States 22 China 96 Poland 36 Iraq 1 4 Mexico 42 Saudi Arabia 4 Others 2 1
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) 1.9 495 122 1630
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) Sulphur in all forms c. 890 c. 6900 2485 12378
Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption 86 22 17 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports 86 21 15
Share of World Consumption (%) Western world 2 18 6 32 Total world 2 12 4 22
Consumption Growth (% p.a.) All forms 1970s -0.7 0.7 -1.4 3.4
262
TANTALUM
WORLD RESERVES (tonnes of metal and %of total)
Developed
Australia Canada Others
Totals Grand Total
4535 (17.3) 1815 (6.9) 450 (1. 7)
6800 (25.9)
Developing
Brazil Malaysia Nigeria Thailand Zaire Others
900 (3.4) 900 (3.4)
3175 (12.1) 7250 (27.6) 1815 (6.9)
2QQ _jhl_) 14940 (56.9)
26275
Centrally Planned
USSR 4535 (17.2)
4535 (17.2)
The world reserve base is estimated at 41,300 tonnes and the resource base at 270,000 tonnes, much of it in the USSR.
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION (tonnes of contained metal 1985/86 Averages)
Developed
Australia Portugal Spain
Totals
43
4
47
Developing
Brazil Malaysia Mozambique Namibia Nigeria Rwanda Thailand Zaire Zambia Zimbabwe
53 5 5 1 4 3
75 42
n/a 13
201
Centrally Planned Total
Total n/a
n/a 248 (Western
world only)
Production continued to be suspended at Tantalum Mining Corp's operations in Canada, one of the world's largest primary sources.
This table excludes production of tantalum from tin slags which is concentrated in in SE Asia, Africa and the USSR (greater than 100), with other countries producing small quantities. Excluding the USSR, world tantalum production from tin slags was about 415 tonnes in 1985/86. This means that total world production of tantalum from all sources averaged roughly 800 tonnes in 1985/86. Production from tin slags collapsed in 1986 with the fall in output of tin metal from SE Asia smelters following the demise of the International Tin Council.
263
Tantalum
Because tin slags are excluded, no percentage shares of world output are given in the table.
The production and shipments of the members of the Tantalum Producers International Study Centre (TIC) were as follows:
(tonnes contained Ta205)
Production Slags Concentrates Total
Shipments Slags Concentrates Total
Source: TIC Quarterly Bulletins.
1985
485.8 146.7 632.5
135.5 170.6 306.1
1986
345.0 61.4
406.4
181.0 133.4 314.4
Processors• shipments amounted to 958 tonnes of contained tantalum in 1985 and 944 tonnes in 1986.
PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY 2 1985 (tonnes of contained metal)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned Total
Australia 115 Brazil 90 USSR 160 Canada 135 Malaysia 90 Portugal 45 Nigeria 70 Spain Thailand 360
Zaire 70 Other Africa 90
Totals 295 770 160 1225
This table includes estimates of capacities of by-product recovery from tin slags.
264
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000:
CONSUMPTION
Tantalum
over 100
1.4 : 1
1985/86 Averages tonnes
% p.a. growth rates
European Community Japan
United States
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (%)
USA
Electronic components Machinery Transport Others
c. 200-250 216
56 19 16 9
360
1970s 1980-86
n/a 13.6
(powder only) 1.8
Japan
Electronics Industrial Cutting tools Others
n/a 6.9
-6.6
60 10 20 10
VALUE OF CONTAINED METAL IN ANNUAL PRODUCTION
$40 million (at average 1987 prices)(including tantalum content of tin slags).
SUBSTITUTES
Substitution for tantalum is normally at the expense of performance or cost.
Aluminium and ceramics compete in capacitors; silicon, germanium and selenium are alternatives in rectifiers; zirconium, titanium can substitute as getters in electronic tubes and in corrosion-resistant equipment.
Niobium can replace tantalum in some carbides, and, along with platinum, in corrosion-resistant equipment and high temperature uses.
Hafnium, molybdenum and tungsten compete in high temperature applications.
265
Tantalum
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Reduction in quantity of tantalum required per capacitor through higher capacitance ratings.
Increased use in superalloys and development of new alloys.
PRICES
1982
Tanco Tantal ite 50% Ta205
$/lb Ta2os 47.5
Range of prices $/lb Ta2os 20-40
Average $/lb Ta20s 34.2
Real 1987 price 35.1
* List price suspended
1983
45.0
20-31
25.1
25.5
1984
45.0
30-33
30.7
30.5
1985
*
21-33
27.6
27.3
1986
*
15-23
17.6
18.1
Large producers have list prices, but dealer market important.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
Most tantalum is produced in association with tin and developments in
1987
*
18.5-28
22.7
22.7
the latter industry have had a depressing effect on tantalum production over the last two years. Production divided between mining of ores, eg: Australia and processing of tin slags, eg Thailand. Some countries combine both methods, eg: Brazil. Substantial by-product production, usually with niobium. The Tantalum Producers, International Study Centre (TIC) based in Brussels, carries out cooperative statistical, promotional and research activities. Most primary producers and processors are members.
266
Tantalum
TANTAWM Spot Tantalite Ore cif US ports 60% combined Cb2 0 5
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70~------~~-------r--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
267
Tantalum
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC(lO) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes Ta content) Ores and concentrates
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Mineral concentrates inc. with inc. with 144 116
niobium niobium (Ta content) Unwrought metal and alloys
inc. powder 21.5 57 30 73 Wrought metal 18.0 31 14 2 Tin slags n/a n/a n/a n/a
Source of Net Imports (%)
Ores and concentrates Australia 9 Canada 26 European Community 28 Braz i 1 16 23 Malaysia 49 Rwanda 18 Thailand 4 Zaire 17 10
Meta 1 etc European Community 49 55 70 United States 23 98 46 Mexico 4 Venezuela 7 Others 28 2 19
268
Tantalum
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Concentrate, metal, alloys,
waste and scrap 16.0 16.5(a) 11.2 141 (metal only) (Ta content)
(a) Including gross German exports
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes Ta content) c. 15 c. 200-250 216 360
Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption 100 100 100 100 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports 100 100 100 87
Share of World Consumption (%)
Western world c. 2 c. 22 c. 21 c. 35
Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s n/a n/a 13.6 1.8
(powder only)
269
TELLURIUM
WORLD RESERVES (tonnes of contained tellurium and %of total)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Australia 520 (2.4) Chile 5100 (23.3) Total 2300 (10.5) Canada 980 (4.5) Peru 780 (3.6) USA 3700 (16.9) Papua N. Guinea 390 (1.8) Others 1000 (4.6) Philippines 780 (3.6)
Zaire 1700 (7.8) Zambia 2000 (9.1) Others 2630 (12.0) ----------
Totals 6200 (28.3) 13380 ( 61.2) 2300 (10.5) Grand Total 21880
The above data refer to reserves of byproduct tellurium contained in copper deposits of economic grade. Concentrations of tellurium can also be found in lead and gold ores and in coal deposits.
WORLD REFINERY PRODUCTION OF PRIMARY METAL (tonnes of metal and % of total 1985/86 Averages)
Developed Developing
Belgium 70 (31) Peru 12.4 Canada 17.5 (8) Japan 55.6 (24) USA 60 (26) Others (a) 13 (6) Totals 216.1 (95) 12.4
(a) Australia and W Germany
Totals and shares are for the Western world only.
Centrally Planned Total
(5) n/a
(5) n/a 228.5 (W world only
Chile, Philippines, Zambia and Zaire and the USSR may also refine tellurium but details of production are not available.
WORLD REFINERY CAPACITY, 1985
World refinery capacity is approximately 520 tonnes concentrated in the USA (110 tonnes), Japan (100 tonnes), Canada (70 tonnes) and USSR (70 tonnes).
270
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIO
Static reserve life (years): Ratio of reserves to cumulated demand 1987-2000:
CONSUMPTION
96
5 : 1
1985/86 Averages tonnes
European Community Japan United States
n/a 51
c. 100
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (USA) (%)
Iron and steel products Non-ferrous metals Chemicals, including rubber
manufacture Xerography and others
VALUE OF ANNUAL PRODUCTION
60 25
10 5
Tellurium
% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86
n/a n/a 1.2
n/a n/a ~a
$7 million (identified production at average 1987 prices).
SUBSTITUTES
Bismuth is being increasingly substituted for tellurium in free machining steels, with selenium and lead as other alternatives in metallurgical applications. Selenium and sulphur can be used in rubber compounding applications and selenium and germanium in electronics.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Development of photoelectrochemical solar cells and screen-printed thin film cadmium sulphide/cadmium telluride solar cells. Potential for other photoactive devices.
New tellurium-containing catalysts.
Recovery from coal deposits.
271
Tellurium
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
Metal - Major producer USA $/lb 10 9 11-11.5 11-11.5 10 14
Real 1987 price 10.3 9.13 11.15 11.21 10.26 14
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
As tellurium is recovered as a by-product, supply may move independently of demand.
The Selenium and Tellurium Development Association, supported by primary producers in Canada, Japan, Peru and the USA, underpins research aimed at encouraging new applications.
272
Tellurium
TELLURIUM Metal major producer slab. $/lb.
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
100
90
80
70
60~--------~------~--------~--------~------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
273
Tellurium
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC(lO) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Refinery 55.6 c. 60
Net Im~orts (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) (a) (a) 2.6 22
(a) Included with arsenic (Te content)
Source of Net Im~orts (%) Canada 38 European Community 92 36 Japan 2 USA 8 Peru 7 Philippines 17
Net Ex~orts (1985/86 Averages) (a) (a) n/a (tonnes) (a) Included with arsenic
Consum~tion (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) n/a n/a 51 c. 100
Im~ort De~endence (%) Imports as % of consumption n/a n/a 5 c. 22 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports n/a n/a 5 n/a
Share of World Consum~tion (%) Western world n/a n/a c. 20 c. 40
Consum~tion Growth (% p.a.) 1970s n/a n/a n/a 1.2
274
TIN
WORLD RESERVES ('000 tonnes of metal and % of total)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Australia 180 (5. 7) Bolivia 140 (4.4) China 80 (2.5) Canada 60 (1.9) Brazi 1 70 (2.2) USSR 80 (2.5) Portugal & Burma 10 (0.6) Others 20 (0.6)
Spain 30 (1.0) Indonesia 680 (21.6) S Africa 30 (1.0) Malaysia 1100 (34.9) UK 90 (2.9) Namibia 60 (1.9) USA 20 (1.0) Nigeria 20 (0.6)
Thailand 270 (8.6) Zaire 20 (0.6) Zimbabwe 20 (0.6) Others 160 __li:l) ------
Totals 410 (13.1) 2550 (81.2) 180 (5.7) Grand Total 3140
The world's reserve base is 4,280,000 tonnes.
Total identified world resources are estimated at 37 million tonnes.
275
Tin
WORLD MINE AND METAL PRODUCTION 1 1985/86 1 AND PRODUCTIVE CAPACITIES 1 1985 (tonnes of metal and% of total)
Mine Metal Production % of Capacity Production % of Capacity
Production Production
DeveloQed Australia 7802 (4.1) 12000 2041 (1.0) 7200 Canada 1110 (0.6) 1000 Japan 505 (0.3) 900 1336 (0.7) 1800 Netherlands - 5211 (2.7) 7000 Portugal 221 (0.1) 600 334 (0.2) 800 S Africa 2104 (1.1) 3000 1936 (1.0) 2000 Spain 400 (0.2) 800 2508 (1.3) 15800 UK 4775 (2.5) 6000 8388 (4.3) 14000 USA 100 (0.1) 300 3107 (1.6) 7300
Total 17017 (9.0) 24600 24861 (12.7) 55900
DeveloQing Argentina 357 (0.2) (a) 234 (0.1) 500 Bo 1 ivi a 13308 (7.0) 33000 10266 (5.3) 17000 Brazil 25982 (13.7) 28000 24904 (12.7) 25000 Burma 1554 (0.8) 3000 755 (0.4) 1000 Indonesia 23196 (12.3) 30000 21249 (10.9) 33000 Laos 500 (0.3) 600 Malaysia 33009 (17.5) 50000 44644 (22.9) 80000 Mexico 483 (0.3) 600 1846 (0.9) 2200 Namibia 805 (0.4) 1700 Nigeria 435 (0.2) 5000 588 (0.3) 13000 Peru 4312 (2.3) 5000 Rwanda 426 (0.2) 2000 474 (0.2) 1300 Singapore 2250 (1.2) 4000 S Korea 10 ( .. ) n/a 1433 (0.7) 4000 Thailand 16693 (8.8) 33000 18834 (9.6) 31000 Zaire 2495 (1.3) 5000 43 ( .. ) 4000 Zimbabwe 1133 (0.6) 2000 1113 (0.6) 2000 Others:
Known Origin 135 (0.1) 600 Unspecified 6750 (3.6) Total 131583 (69.6) 199500 128633 (65.8) 218000
Centralll Planned China 20000 (10.6) 20000 19500 (10.0) 20000 Czechoslovakia 200 (0.1) 500 450 (0.2) 500 E Germany 2800 (1.5) 2000 3300 (1. 7) 3000 Mongolia 1000 (0.5) 500 USSR 16000 (8.5) 28000 18100 (9.3) 29000 Vietnam 500 (0.3) 500 500 (0.3) 1200
Total 40500 (21.4) 51500 41850 (21.4) 53700
TOTAL 189100 275600 195344 327600
(a) Included with Peru 276
Metal capacity figures refer to primary metal only. The capacities for producing metal are imprecise as smelters can use differing grades of concentrate. Much of the mine and metal capacity closed down in 1985-86.
WORLD PRODUCTION OF SECONDARY METAL {'000 tonnes of metal and% of total 1985/86 Averages)
Tin
Developed Developing Centrally Planned Total
Australia 0.4 Argentina 0.1 Czechoslovakia 0.4 Canada 0.2 Brazil 0.2 Others n/a W Germany 0.7 India 0.1 S Africa 0.1 Thailand 0.1 Spain 0.2 UK (a) 6.5 USA 1.2 Other Europe 0.8 Totals 10.1 0.4 0.4 10.9
(a) Includes production from smelter residues.
This table is incomplete, as full data are not available.
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): 17 Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative consumption 1987-2000: 1 : 1
277
CONSUMPTION
European Comm~nity Japan United States Others Total Western world
Total world
1985/86 Averages •ooo tonnes
45.7 31.6 46.6 46.8
170.7
225.9
% p.a. growth rates 1960-70 1970-80 1980-86
-0.1 6.9 1.3 1.4 1.4
2.1
-1.7 1.9
-1.6 2.3
-0.2
-0.4
-0.7 0.3
-4.2 2.3
-0.8
-0.6
Includes tin refined from secondary materials, but not use of scrap tin.
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (%)
USA Japan UK W Germany
Tinplate 20 29 34 14 Tinning 3 7 2 Solder 36 44 9 18 Alloys 14 2 31 11 Wrought Tin 27 2 2 Chemicals & others 26 17 54
US and UK - primary and secondary metal; W Germany and Japan - primary only.
Canning•s share is more than 50% in the world as a whole.
VALUE OF CONTAINED METAL IN ANNUAL PRODUCTION
$1.35 billion {primary refined metal at average 1987 prices).
278
coins)
Tin
SUBSTITUTES
Aluminium, tin-free steel, glass, paper, plastics all compete with tin in cans.
Non-metallic materials, copper, aluminium and zinc-coated products are alternatives in roofing and construction applications.
Aluminium alloys, copper-base alloys and plastics can substitute in bronze.
Other chemicals can replace tin compounds for use as fungicides and biocides or polyvinyl chloride stabilisers. In some user (eg: marine pleasure craft) the use of tin biocides is banned on environmental grounds.
Epoxy resins can be used for solder though not as effectively.
Babbit metal can be replaced by low tin aluminium, copper, or lead bearing alloys and roller or ball bearings.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Increasing recovery from slimes in beneficiation stage.
Replacement of tinplate food and drink container by aluminium can and PET containers.
Increased use of tin oxide coatings.
279
Tin
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
LME Standard Grade Cash (a) $/lb 5.82 5.90 5.57 5.56
Metal Bulletin free Market Spot $/lb (a) 2.85 3.14
Real 1987 price (a) 5.97 5.99 5.53 5.50 2.93 3.14
Kuala Lumpur/ Penang $/lb 5.8 5.9 5.6 5.4 2.79 3.0
Kuala Lumpur/ Penang $M/kg 29.84 30.20 29.16 29.67 15.5 16.84
LME Monthly Average Range i/tonne 6308- 7666- 8520- 8715-
8651 9014 9881 10011
(a) LME price suspended October 24th 1985. For 1986-87 the Metal Bulletin Free Market Price is used.
280
Until the collapse of the International Tin Agreement in October 1985 most tin trade was related to LME or Kuala Lumpur market determined prices, as modified by ITC intervention. Subsequently LME dealings have ceased, and prices are fixed by reference to the Kuala Lumpur Exchange or a variety of dealer prices.
Tin
Up to October 1985 prices were theoretically subject to ITC intervention levels through a system of floor and ceiling prices. The ranges were altered periodically to keep them roughly in line with costs, but the ceiling was often breached. The floor price in the Sixth Agreement was Malaysian $29.16/kg. Prices were supported by export controls and buffer stock purchases. The ITC's prices were set too high in an oversupplied market, in which a substantial and growing percentage of output came from non members. The ITC's buffer stock manager eventually ran out of funds and the Agreement collapsed.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
Production is mainly concentrated in developing countries. Output is largely state controlled in Indonesia, and Nigeria (now a small scale producer), and to a lesser extent in Malaysia and Zaire. The International Tin Council consists of producers and consumers. The Sixth Agreement went into provisional operation on 1st July 1982 but was dogged by political differences over the size of the buffer stock, and export controls. Bolivia, USA and USSR who were members of the Fifth Agreement did not join, and nor did Brazil whose low cost output expanded rapidly.
August 1983 saw the formation of the Association of Tin Producing Countries (ATPC). Initial aims were the promotion of producer and consumer interests, including research in marketing and the development of new uses for tin. Founder members of Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Bolivia were joined by Nigeria, Zaire and Australia.
The tin market is influenced by sales from the US stockpile (1986 - 5,490 t), by Chinese exports, and since October 1985 by the unloading of excess stocks built up by the ITC's buffer stock and held by the banks as collateral. These stocks are expected to run out in late 1988/1989.
281
Tin
TIN LME standard cash
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
90~--------~------~--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
282
Tin
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC{10) Japan USA
Production {1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Tin in concentrates 4775 4775 505 100 Primary metal 8388 13599 1336 3107 Recycled tin metal 6475{a) c. 7920 1218 (a) Includes smelter residues
Net Imports {1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Tin in concentrates
(Sn content) 6966 c. 13815 2776 Tin metal 4086 31612 30033 34799
Source of Net Imports (%)
Tin in concentrates Australia 3 3 Canada 8 6 S Africa 8 7 Argentina 1 Bolivia 76 61 5 Burma 5 Chile 1 1 China 1 3 Peru 93 Zaire 8 Others 3 5 2
Tin metal European Community 5 2 S Africa 12 2 Bolivia 4 6 10 Brazil 13 2 29 Chile 1 3 Indonesia 17 23 16 13 Malaysia 41 32 45 9 Nigeria 7 2 Singapore 4 3 4 Thai land 4 13 23 12 Zimbabwe 2 China 2 2 10 11 Others 3 2 4 7
283
Tin
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Tin in concentrates
(Sn content) 2278 c. 30 Tin metal 10465 7264 76 1513
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Primary metal 6000 40516 31560 34868 Recycled metal 3574 5174 11778 Total metal 9574 45690 31560 46646
Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption 115 99 95 81 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports 50 86 95 72
Share of World Consumption (%)
Western world 6 27 18 27 Total world 4 20 14 21
Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1960s -1.6 -0.1 6.9 1.3 1970s -4.9 -1.7 1.9 -1.6
284
TITANIUM
WORLD RESERVES OF ILMENITE (million tonnes of contained titanium and % of total)
Developed
Australia Canada Finland Norway S Africa USA Totals Grand Total
14 (11.4) 16 (13.0) 1 (0.8)
19 (15.5) 23 (18.7)
_7 _li:I) 80 (65.0)
Developing
Brazil India Sri Lanka
123
Centrally Planned
1 (0.8) China 18 (14.6) USSR 2 (1.6)
21 (17 .1)
18 (14.6) 4 (3.3)
22 (17.9)
The world reserve base is estimated at 240 million tonnes and includes deposits in Egypt and Malaysia in addition to the above countries. Identified resources total about 540 million tonnes of contained titanium.
WORLD RESERVES OF RUTILE (million tonnes of contained titanium and% of total)
Developed
Australia S Africa USA
Totals Grand Total
5.2 (11.0) 2.2 (4.7) 0.2 (0.4)
7.6 (16.1)
Developing
Brazil 33.6 (71.3) India 2.6 (5.5) Sierra Leone 1.3 (2.8) Sri Lanka __9_2 ___1!4)
38.0 (80. 7) 47.1
Centrally Planned
USSR 1.5 (3.2)
1.5 (3.2)
The reserve base totals 70 million tonnes, 65% of which is in Brazil, and also includes deposits in Italy. Identified world resources total 108 million tonnes of contained titanium.
285
Titanium
WORLD PRODUCTION OF TITANIUM MINERALS ('000 tonnes of concentrates 1985/86 Averages)
Developed Developing
Ilmenite Australia (a) 1342 Brazil 76 Finland 27 India 141 Norway 768 Malaysia 365 Portugal Sri Lanka 107 USA 290 Thai land 8
Rutile Australia 214 Brazi 1 1 S Africa 55 India 7 USA n/a Sierra Leone 89
Sri Lanka 8
Slags Canada 847 S Africa 435
(a) Includes leucoxene
286
Centrally Planned
China USSR
USSR
142 447
10
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION, 1985/86, and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985 {'000 tonnes of contained titanium dioxide and% of total)
Mine % of Production Production
Developed Australia 976 {29.6} Canada 678 (20.6} Finland 12 {0.4} Norway 340 (10.3) S Africa 370 (11.2) USA 165 (a) (5.0)
Total 2541 (77 .2)
Developing
Brazil 43 ( 1. 3) India 87 (2.6} Malaysia 168 (5.1) Sierra Leone 85 (2.6} Sri Lanka 65 (2.0} Thailand 4 (0.1)
Total 452 (13.7}
Centrall~ Planned China 70 (2.1) USSR 230 (7 .0}
Total 300 (9.1)
TOTAL 3293
(a) excludes US production of rutile.
Titanium
Productive Capacity
1150 680
65 335 405 205
2840
40 110 115
95 75
n/a 435
90 235 325
3600
87% of the total capacity is for ilmenite. Rutile capacity is concentrated in the USA {25 tonnes), USSR {9 tonnes), Sierra Leone {95 tonnes), S Africa {55 tonnes), India {9 tonnes), Sri Lanka (15 tonnes) and Australia {240 tonnes). All figures refer to contained titanium dioxide.
Titanium dioxide contains 60% titanium.
287
Titanium
WORLD PRODUCTION OF TITANIUM METAL (tonnes of sponge and % of total 1985/86 Averages)
Developed
Japan 18.5 (22.3) UK 1.4 ( 1. 7) USA 18.4 (22.1)
Totals 38.3 (46.1)
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000: (ilmenite and rutile combined)
CONSUMPTION
Centrally Planned
China 1.8 (2.2) USSR 43.0 (51.7)
44.8 (53.9)
87 (ilmenite and rutile combined)
5.9 : 1
% p.a. growth rates
Total
83.1
1985/86 Averages '000 tonnes 1970s 1980-86
Titanium pigments European Community Japan United States
Titanium sponge European Community Japan United States
(a) apparent
650 - 700 c. 230 893(a)
10 - 15 11 19
288
stagnating n/a 4.0 n/a 1.3 4.6
n/a n/a 12.9 1.4 6.2 -5.3
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (USA) (%)
Ore (Ilmenite and Rutile) Pigment manufacture (titanium
dioxide) 94 Sponge production, welding rod
coats and carbides, ceramic and glass formulations 6
Metal Aircraft and aerospace 78 Chemical processing, power
generation, marine and ordnance 22
VALUE OF ANNUAL PRODUCTION
$330 million (Ti02 content at average 1987 prices).
SUBSTITUTES
Titanium
Nickel steels, stainless steels, HSLA steels and some non-ferrous metal alloys can sometimes replace titanium alloys in industrial uses although at the expense of performance or economics.
Tungsten carbide competes with titanium carbide as a cutting surface in machine tools.
Synthetic rutile made from ilmenite can be substituted for natural rutile.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Environmental problems mean that plants are likely to use chloride technology in the future. Increasing amounts of synthetic rutile (made from ilmenite) are likely to be used as feed.
Possibility of using ilmenite in drilling mud applications.
Improvement in titanium forming processing to cut costs.
Replacement of titanium alloys in aerospace applications by lithiumaluminium alloys or carbon-epoxy composites.
Further research in medicare - pacemakers, artificial hips etc.
289
Titanium
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
Ore Rutile cone 96% Ti02 fob cars Atlantic and Great Lakes $0 short ton 462.5 433.0 453.0 475 496.1 515
Real 1987 price 475.4 439.4 449.0 473.0 509.0 515
Ore Ilmenite bulk cone min 54% Ti02 A$/ tonne 28.04 32.5 37.0 42.3 58.1 75.0
S~onge US (a) $/lb 6.18 3.6 4 3.75 4 4.2
(a) List price suspended 1984 at $5.55. Reported end year sales prices for 1983-87.
Source: Metal Bulletin for ore prices.
Ore prices mainly fixed on contract. Metal prices are usually quoted by mills. Discounting common.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
Moderately integrated industry with limited number of countries producing ore. Large chemical and industrial companies, eg, Du Pont, dominate pigment production, and often have captive ore supplies.
290
160
140
120
100
TITANIUM US, Sponge
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
Titanium
80~--------~------~--------~--------~------~
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
291
Titanium
100
95
90
85
TITANIUM Rutile Ore
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
I I
I I
I I
I I
I I
I l
_,-' _,-'
80·~--------~------~--------~--------~------~
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
292
Titanium
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes)
Raw materia 1 s Ilmenite concentrate 290 Rutile concentrate n/a Titanium slags Titanium dioxide pigments 225 n/a c 225 806
Sponge metal 1.4 1.4 18.5 (Ti02 745}
c. 18.4 Ingots (inc. scrap and imported
sponge) n/a n/a n/a 32
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes)
Raw materials Ilmenite concentrate 280.7 1052.8 637.2 441.1 Rutile concentrate 89.7 306.7 131.2 Titanium slag and residues 37.4 351.4 92.7 296.5 Titanium oxides (inc. pigments) 20.6 46.5 41.1 180.9 Sponge and metal (inc. wrought) 8.3 15.6 4.9
(wrought only)
Source of Net Imports (%)
Ilmenite 2 rutile and slag (exc. slag) ( exc. s 1 ag) Australia 39 24 34 56 Canada 4 24 11 20 European Community 19 Norway 25 31 S Africa 4 4 12 18 India 6 7 6 Malaysia 29 Sierra Leone 6 3 Sri Lanka 1 2 8 1 Others 3 1 1
293
Titanium
UK EC(lO) Japan USA
Titanium Oxides Australia 5 3 Canada 13 European Community 62 55 63 Finland 45 4 3 Japan 1 3 Norway 6 14 1 4 Spain 2 6 1 10 United States 22 19 28 China 1 2 2 Czechoslovakia 2 5 South Korea 4 Others 5 8 1 1
Metal (inc. scrap) Austria 11 Sweden 1 1 Canada 11 European Community 16 19 Japan 3 19 54 Switzerland 4 USA 47 50 China 4 USSR 12 2 Others 34 7 5
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ( '000 tonnes)
Raw materials Ilmenite concentrate 0.55 1.9 0.9 Rutile concentrate 29.8 1.4 Titanium slag 0.5 Oxides & titanium dioxide
pigments etc. 128.4 363.1 65.5 99.2 Sponge and meta 1 2.3 2.2 6.6 9.2
294
Titanium
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes)
Raw materia 1 s Ilmenite n/a n/a n/a 708.7
Rutile (natural & synthetic) n/a (Ti02 450.7)
n/a n/a 287.7
Slag n/a n/a n/a (Ti02 270.3)
239.6 (Ti02 191.2)
Titanium dioxide pigments c. 150 650-700 200-250 893.2 (Ti02 826.1)
Sponge metal 3-4 10-15 10.9 18.6
Import Dependence (all forms) Imports as % of consumption 100 100 100 96 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports 100 100 100 86
Share of World Consumption (%)
Total world: Sponge and meta 1 4 12-18 13 22 Pigments (approx.) 6 26 9 34
Consumption Growth (% p.a.)
1970s Metal n/a n/a 12.9 6.2 Pigments etc. -1.5 n/a 4.0 1.3
(1974 to 1980) Total all forms -1.3 flat 4.3 1.5
295
TUNGSTEN
WORLD RESERVES ('000 tonnes of metal and% of total)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Australia 130 ( 4. 7) Bolivia 45 ( 1.6) China 1200 {42.9) Austria 15 (0.5) Brazi 1 20 {0.7) Czecho-Canada 480 (17.2) Burma 15 {0.5) slovakia 5 {0.2) France 20 {0. 7) S Korea 58 (2.1) N Korea 80 (2.9) Portugal 40 ( 1.4) Malaysia 17 {0.6) USSR 280 {10.0) Turkey 65 (2.3) Mexico 8 (0.3) UK 70 {2.5) Thailand 30 ( 1.1) USA 150 (5.4) Zimbabwe 5 (0.2) Others 20 __ {Q.=D Others __§~) -----Totals 990 {35.4) 243 {8. 7) 1565 {55.9) Grand Total 2798
The reserve base is 3.5 million tonnes, distributed broadly as above.
296
Tungsten
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION 1 1985/86 2 and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY 2 1985 ('000 tonnes of contained tungsten and% of total)
Mine % of Productive Production Production Capacity
Developed Australia 1.64 (3.7) 3.60 Austria 1.49 {3.3) 2.00 Canada 2.31 {5.2) 4.50 France 0.86 (1. 9) 1.00 Japan 0.54 (1. 2) 0.60 New Zealand ( .. ) 0.01 Portugal 1. 70 {3.8) 1. 70 Spain 0.45 {1. 0) 0.60 Sweden 0.40 {0.9) 0.40 Turkey 0.08 (0.2) 0.50 USA 0.89 (2.0) 4.00
Total 10.36 (23.3) 18.91
Developing Argentina 0.02 ( .. ) 0.12 Bolivia 1.40 {3.1) 2.60 Braz i 1 0.95 (2.1) 1.50 Burma 0.83 ( 1. 9) 1.10 Guatemala 0.01 ( .. ) n/a India 0.03 {0.1) 0.03 S Korea 2.54 (5. 7) 2.80 Malaysia 0.02 ( .. ) 0.01 Mexico 0.29 (0.7) 0.30 Peru 0.73 ( 1. 6) 1.20 Rwanda 0.09 (0.2) 0.33 Thailand 0.47 ( 1.1) 0.90 Uganda ( .. ) 0.01 Zaire 0.02 ( .. ) 0.07 Zimbabwe 0.01 ( .. ) 0.07
Total 7.41 (16.6) 11.04
Centrall~ Planned China 15.00 ( 33. 7) 17.00 Czechoslovakia 0.05 (0.1) 0.05 Mongolia 1.50 (3.4) n/a N Korea 1.00 (2.2) 1.00 USSR 9.20 (20. 7) 9.20
Total 26.75 (60.1) 27.25
TOTAL 44.52 57.20
297
Tungsten
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000:
CONSUMPTION OF TUNGSTEN CONCENTRATES
63
3.5 1
1985/86 Averages tonnes
% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86
European Community Japan United States Other Countries Total Western world
Total world
3961 2408 5821 (a) 6780
18970
44974
-6 -4.9 1.6 4.1 1.1
0.6
(a) Some 500 to 2,000 tonnes of scrap are also used.
Source: UNCTAD Committee on Tungsten.
-2.6 -4.7
-10.4 -1.0
-4.9
0.7
These statistics show the immediate consumption of tungsten concentrates, but not necessarily the final destination of the subsequent products.
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (%)
United States
Metal working and construction machinery 70 Transport 8 Lamps and lighting 10 Electrical 8 Other 4
Cemented carbides Tool steels Tungsten meta 1 Superalloys and miscellaneous
VALUE OF CONTAINED METAL IN ANNUAL PRODUCTION
61 4
23 11
$207 million (contained wca at average 1987 prices).
298
Japan
58 23 19
Tungsten
SUBSTITUTES
Titanium, tantalum and niobium carbides can be used in some wear-resisting applications.
Molybdenum tool steels and tungsten tool steels are interchangeable.
In some cutting tool applications, bulk ceramics are alternatives.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Further development of new metal-shaping methods, eg: laser. Development of new cutting tool materials.
Increased use in ceramics and in catalysts.
Increased use of tungsten scrap.
Increased use of coatings on cemented carbide cutting tools.
Use of tungsten compounds in light-sensitive applications.
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985
Ore min 65% W03 cif Europe
$/mtu W03 78-113 67-91 68-69 54-76
Real 1987 price 80-116 68-92 68-69 53-75 (range)
Source: Metal Bulletin
1986 1987
30-63 35-58
31-65 35-58
Prices are traditionally highly volatile. Consumers buy direct from producers or through traders, often by reference to Metal Bulletin price quotes which usually represent small spot lots or samples of purchases. An alternative pricing basis is the International Tungsten Indicator which moves in a very similar fashion. Long term contractual prices are usually lower.
299
Tungsten
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
The market is influenced by two extraneous factors - exports from China which have increased considerably in recent years, and sales from the US stockpile. The latter were suspended between October 1985 and May 1986 and then resumed on only a moderate basis. Chinese exports were subject to antidumping action in Europe and in 1987 to an Orderly Marketing Agreement in the USA. Major producers, meet under the auspices of the Primary Tungsten Association which has been re-launched to include major customers. The UNCTAD Tungsten Committee collects data and attempts, unsuccessfully so far, to reach agreement on market stabilisation measures. There has been increasing interest, especially in USA, in integrated production through construction of tungsten conversion plants.
300
Tungsten
TUNGSTEN Ore min 65% WO, cit Europe
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100~------~------~~------~------~----.. ~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
301
Tungsten
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Mine production (W content) 859 540 (a) 888 Ammonium paratungstate
(W content) n/a n/a n/a 6065
(a) Japanese sources give this figure as 619
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Concentrates (gross wt) 5120 2319
Concentrates (W content) 371 c. 2800 c. 1300 3634 Ferro tungsten (gross wt) 85 1196 130 139
(W content) Ammonium paratungstate
(W content) n/a n/a n/a 1254 Tungsten metal 344 1894 44 122 Tungsten carbide (gross wt) 500 1471 n/a 399
(W content)
Source of Net Imports (%)
Ores and concentrates Australia 5 7 8 Canada 20 6 20 European Community 36 6 Portugal 36 12 33 10 Spain 3 1 Sweden 4 China 25 5 12 Brazil 1 1 Bolivia 18 1 11 17 Burma 2 1 2 Mexico 5 Peru 6 6 10 Rwanda 5 2 S Korea 1 19 Thailand 7 2 10 Others 9 8 1 4
302
Tungsten
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Concentrates (gross wt) 997 Concentrate (W content) 127 c. 550 79 Metal and powder (W content) 665 955 248 c. 1050 Tungsten carbide (gross wt) 912 695 (a) 505
(W content) Ferrotungsten (gross wt) 150 74 n/a
(a) Excluding W Germany
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Concentrates (W content) 600 3961 2408 5821 Apparent Total (W content) c. 750-1000c. 5500-6000 c. 3500 7121 (a)
(a) Concentrates, scrap and metal
Import Dependence (all forms) Imports as % of consumption 100 100 57 95 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports 100 89 (b) 53 63 (b) Based on mine production
Share of World Consumption of Concentrates (%)
Western world 3 21 13 31 Total world 1 9 5 13
Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s -8.3 -6 -4.9 1.6
303
URANIUM
WESTERN WORLD REASONABLY ASSURED RESOURCES {'000 tonnes Uranium and% of total)
Developed Developing Total
Australia 526 (22.7) Algeria 26 ( 1.1) Canada 214 {9.2) Argentina 18.9 {0.8) Denmark 27 {1.2) Brazil 163.3 (7.0) Finland 1.5 {0.1) Centra 1 African France 67.1 (2.9) Republic 16 {0. 7) W Germany 4.7 {0.2) Chile 2.3 {0.1) Greece 0.4 ( .. ) Gabon 21.3 {0.9) Italy 4.8 {0.2) India 46.1 (2.0) Japan 7.7 {0.3) S Korea 10 {0.4) Portugal 8.2 (0.3) Mexico 7.7 {0.3) S Africa 358.7 (15.5) Namibia 120 {5.2) Spain 32.9 {1.4) Niger 182.2 (7.9) Sweden 39 (1. 7) Peru 0.5 ( .. ) Turkey 3.9 (0.2) Somalia 6.6 (0.3) USA 398.1 (17.2) Zaire 1.8 (0.1) Totals 1694 {73.1) 622.7 {26.9) 2316.7
Source: OECD/IAEA Uranium Resources, Production & Demand.
After allowing for processing losses not incorporated in these estimates, the source rounds the total to 2250.
The table includes estimates of reasonably assured resources available at 1st January 1985. Some 72% of the total is available at an estimated forward cost (not price) of $80/Kg U or less, and the balance at a forward cost of $80 to 130 kg/U. Estimated additional resources in the Western world available at a forward cost under $130/Kg of U, amount to some 1.2 million tonnes of U.
304
WESTERN WORLD MINE PRODUCTION (tonnes U and % of total 1985/86 Averages)
Developed
Australia Canada France W Germany Japan Portugal S Africa Spain USA Yugoslavia Totals
3702 11309 3227
40 6
114 4743
208 4785
48 28182
(10.3) ( 31.3) (8.9) {0 .1) ( .. )
{0.3) {13.1) {0.6)
{13.3) (0.1)
{78.1)
Developing
Argentina Brazil Gabon India Namibia Niger
144 {0.4) 108 {0.3) 917 (2.5) 167 (0.5)
3427 (9.5) 3155 {8.7)
7918 {21.9)
Uranium
Total
36100
Note: There is presently a limited amount of reprocessing of spent reactor fuel which supplements mine production. In addition Belgium produced 40 tonnes U in 1985/86 from imported phosphates.
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life -Western world (years):
Ratio of resources to cumulative demand 1987-2000 (includes reasonably assured and estimated additional resources):
64
3.2 1
305
Uranium
CONSUMPTION
The table shows average Western world reactor requirements in 1986, based on estimated reactor usage. Stockpiling is ignored.
Western Europe Asia United States Others Total Western world
Source: Uranium Institute
'000 tonnes (U)
18.0 6.1
14.7 2.5
41.3
% p.a. growth rates 1970s (a)
14.3 25.3 10.6 20.5 14.5
(a) For the European Community, Japan, USA, and other countries respectively.
Total reactor requirements were just over 40,000 tonnes in 1985, and about 42,000 tonnes in 1987.
The future growth in demand depends on the continuation of programmes for building nuclear reactors. Because of delays to reactor construction and stockpiling, purchases of uranium substantially exceeded reactor usage up to 1983. Public acceptability of nuclear power and of nuclear waste disposal is vital for future growth of demand for uranium.
END USE PATTERNS
The only uses for natural uranium are for military purposes and for civil nuclear power. There is no published breakdown of demand between the two, although nearly all recent output goes into the latter.
VALUE OF ANNUAL PRODUCTION
$2.3 billion at an average value of $25/lb.
SUBSTITUTES
Nuclear power directly competes with other forms of electricity generation. Once a nuclear station is built, however, there is no substitute for uranium based fuel beyond various fuel management schemes that raise the productivity of the installed fuel. Reprocessing of spent fuel allows some limited substitution for mined output in the longer term, but is constrained in the short term by a lack of reprocessing facilities and waste storage.
306
Uranium
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Improvements in the technology of existing reactor types will allow modest savings (10-15%) in uranium requirements. Longer term, the fast breeder reactor, now at the prototype stage, would allow a substantial (60 fold) reduction in uranium usage per unit of power. Its development has been delayed and it will probably not be a commercial proposition until well into the 21st century. Work on different types of reactor from the light water reactor has been inhibited by developments in the energy and uranium markets but several processes have been developed for processing and enrichment.
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
Nuexco exchange value $/lb U30s 19.9 23.0 17.3 15.6 17.0 16.7
Nuexco exchange value Real 1987 price 20.5 23.3 17.1 15.5 17.4 16.7
US DOE Average reported contract price $/lb U309 33.0 34.2 27.8 26.4 25.9 24.1
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
Uranium is a minor but very important element of the cost of nuclear power. Most sales (over 75%) are under long term contracts directly negotiated between mines and utilities. The intermediate processing from uranium concentrate to fuel rods is carried out under tolling arrangements. Because of their sensitive nature, uranium exports are heavily controlled by host governments in nearly all respects. There is a spot market organised mainly by uranium brokers, which has gradually increased in importance in which utilities can dispose of excess supplies. Spot prices are only one influence on prices fixed under long term contracts. Production costs are also important. There is a limited number of mines, which are controlled by a mixture of government agencies, utilities, oil companies and mining companies. Most producers have large interests outside uranium mining. US producers have unsuccessfully pressed in recent years for protection against imports on the grounds that the US industry is not viable.
307
Uranium
URANIUM Nuexco exchange value
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
140
130
120
110
100
90~--------r-------~--------~------~---------, 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
308
Uranium
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
Data on foreign trade compatible with production and consumption statistics are not published. On the basis of mine production and reactor usage Japan and the United Kingdom are completely reliant on imports or accumulated inventories. Production in the European Community equalled about 25% of its reactor usage, whilst in the United States average consumption greatly exceeded final consumption in nuclear reactors. The processing of natural uranium (conversion, enrichment and fuel fabrication) is a constraint on commercial freedom. Supplying countries also impose various restrictions on trade in, and the uses of their exports.
309
VANADIUM
WORLD RESERVES ('000 tonnes of contained vanadium and% of total)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Australia 32 (0.7) Chile 14 (0.3) China 600 (13.8) Finland 32 (0.7) India 9 (0.2) USSR 2630 (60.4) S Africa 860 (19.8) Venezuela 9 (0.2) USA 168 _{hl) --- -----Totals 1092 (25.1) 32 (0.7) 3230 (74.2) Grand Total 4354
The world's reserve base is some 16.6 million tonnes, over 70% in S Africa and USSR. Norway, Cahada, New Zealand, Burundi, Namibia, Mozambique, Zambia, Mexico and South Korea make up 460,000 tonnes of the reserve base.
The world's identified resources amount to 63 million tonnes. Most of the resources are in titaniferous-magnetites from which vanadium would be produced as a by-product of iron, or they are in crude petroleum and tar sands. In all these cases extraction depends on economic recovery of the main product.
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION, 1985/86, and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985 (tonnes of contained vanadium and% of total)
Developed Australia Finland S Africa USA
Total
Developing Chile
Centrally Planned China USSR
Total
TOTAL
Mine Production
2132(a) 15325
800 18257
4500 9550
14050
32307
(a) 1985 only production ceased in 1986. 310
% of Production
(6.6) (47.4) (2.5)
(56.5)
(13.9) (29.6) (43.5)
Productive Capacity
900 3800
22680 8980
36360
1090
6530 20865 27395
64845
Vanadium
In addition, Japan recovered 760 tonnes of vanadium, and the USA a further 2788 tonnes, from petroleum residues, ashes and spent catalysts. Country of origin of the raw material is unknown. Respective production capacities are 1,090 tonnes and 7,890 tonnes. W Germany, USSR and several European countries also recover vanadium from petroleum residues but insufficient data are available to allow reliable estimates to be made of either output or capacities.
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): 135 Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000: 8 : 1
CONSUMPTION
1985/86 Averages tonnes
European Community Japan United States (a)
(a) Reported consumption.
c. 8000-9000 2794 4169
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (USA) (%)
HSLA steels 26 Other steels 56 Non-ferrous alloys 16 Others, including cast irons,
chemicals and catalysts 2
VALUE OF ANNUAL PRODUCTION
% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86
n/a probably fell 8.7
-0.3
n/a 0.2
-5.7
$450 million (contained metal at average 1987 prices).
SUBSTITUTES
Niobium, molybdenum, titanium, chromium, manganese and tungsten can sometimes substitute for vanadium in steel although at higher cost or with lower performance. Heat-treated carbon steels can replace vanadium steels in some applications.
Platinum can be used in some catalytic processes but at higher cost.
311
Vanadium
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Possible recovery from low grade dolomitic shales and sandstones and extractions from tar sands and oil shales.
Potential new chemical applications.
Extended use of HSLA steels and vanadium superalloys.
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986
US Pentoxide/Chemical $/lb V205 4.47 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52
US Pentoxide/Chemical Real 1987 price 4.59 4.59 4.49 4.47 4.62
US Pentoxide/Metallurgical (fused) $/lb V205 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
F errov an ad i urn US Producer 80% v $/lb 8.5 7.08 6.48 5.29 6.31
Mainly producer pricing.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
1987
4.52
4.52
3.5
6.54
Mainly produced as by-product or co-product of other metals, especially iron and uranium. S Africa, especially Highveld Steel and Vanadium Corp, and USSR are the world's major producers, with China becoming increasingly important. The trend is towards vertical integration through ferrovanadium production facilities. US producers of ferrovanadium are facing increasing competitive pressures from lower cost imports.
312
102
101
100
99
VANADIUM US pentoxide/chemical V 20 5
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
---, \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \
\ I \ I \ I \. I
' I ', I
',1
~, I \ I \ I \ I \ I \ I \ I \ I \ I \ I \ I \ I \ I \
Vanadium
98~-------r-------r------~------~~----~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
313
Vanadium
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Ores and concentrates:
Mine (V content) c. 800 Oil Residues & spent catalysts (V content) 760 2788
Ferrovanadium n/a n/a n/a
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Ores, slags and residues 27162 1050
(gross) (V cont) Vanadium oxides 316 7549 3444 230
(V cont (V cont (V cont (V cont) c. 177) c. 4227) c. 1928)
F errov an ad i urn 587 1603 412 631 (V cont (V cont (V cont (V cont) c. 411) c. 1122) c. 288)
Vanadium metal 142 254
Source of Net Im~orts (%)
Vanadium ~entoxide European Community 29 2 5 Finland 50 22 S Africa 3 21 84 70 United States 2 2 China 15 55 10 24 Others and unspecified 3 2
F errov an ad i urn Austria 31 90 56 22 Canada 28 European Community 68 39 34 S Africa 14 United States 1 Others 1 9 5 2
314
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Ores, concentrate and slag
Vanadium pentoxide
F errov an ad i urn
Vanadium compounds Vanadium metal
(a) Excludes W Germany.
UK
59 (V cont c. 33)
200 (V cont c. 140)
14
(b) Excludes Belgium-Luxembourg
Consumption (1985/86 Averages)
EC(10) Japan
3201 (gross)
123 (a) (V cont c. 69) 1987 (b) 52
(V cont (V cont c. 1251) c. 36)
99
(tonnes) c. 550-600 c. 8000-9000 2794 (V cont) (V cont) (V cont)
Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption 100 100 100 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports 100 100 100
Share of World Consumption (%) Western world (approx) 3 c. 38 13
Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s -3 n/a 8.7
(iron & (probably steel fell)
industry)
315
Vanadium
USA
40 (V cont)
780 (V cont)
307 (V cont)
302
4169 (reported)
46 (reported)
36 (reported)
24
-0.3
VERMICULITE
WORLD RESERVES
Western world reserves are estimated at 45 million tonnes, 50% in the United States, 40% in South Africa and 7% in Brazil. Substantial deposits exist in China, the USSR and other centrally planned economies, but their combined material has generally inferior exfoliation characteristics.
The reserve base is 180 million tonnes and total world resources are approximately 550 million tonnes.
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION (•ooo tonnes and% of total 1985/86 Averages)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Australia 0.6 (0.1) Argentina 5.1 (1.0) n/a Japan 17 (3.3) Brazil 11.2 (2.2) S Africa 188.9 (36.6) Egypt 0.5 (0.1) USA 286.5 (55.4) India 4.4 (0.9)
Kenya 2.0 (0.4) Mexico 0.2 _h)
Totals 493.0 (95.5) 23.4 (4.5) n/a
Total
516.4 (Western world)
Percentages shown are for Western world only.
PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985
Western world productive capacity totals 635 tonnes of which 360 tonnes is located in the USA and 205 tonnes in S Africa.
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): 87 Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000: 6 : 1
316
CONSUMPTION
European Community Japan United States (apparent
consumption)
1985/86 Averages '000 tonnes
n/a c. 25
298
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (USA) (%)
Exfoliated vermiculite:
Agriculture 23 Insulation 20 Lightweight concrete aggregate 20 Plaster and cement premises 32 Other 2
VALUE OF ANNUAL PRODUCTION
Vermiculite
% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86
n/a n/a
1.9
n/a n/a
-0.3
$ 67 million (Western world production at 1987 prices).
SUBSTITUTES
In lightweight concrete and plaster, expanded perlite, expanded clay shale, or slate substitute. Fibreglass, foam and slag wool are amongst the alternatives for insulation, and a variety of substitutes is available in agricultural applications.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Newly designed furnaces with higher throughput, and improved thermal efficiency are becoming available.
The development of new composite materials is increasing the utilisation of vermiculite.
Development of new uses for finer sized exfoliated vermiculite.
The need for a safer alternative is asbestos has prompted much research on vermiculite.
317
Vermiculite
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
Vermiculite: Montana/S Carolina $/tonne 108.3 111.0 125.1 130.8 134.9 125 Real 1987 price 111.3 112.6 124.0 130.3 138.4 125
S Africa $/tonne 143.3 143.3 143.3 135.0 140.5 135
South African material is generally higher quality than the US vermiculite.
Transport costs are important.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
The Palabora Mining Company in South Africa and W R Grace & Co in the United States produce the larger part of the world's mined output. There are two other much smaller companies in the United States. Exfoliation plants are usually sited close to final markets for economic reasons.
318
120
110
100
90
VERMICULITE Montana/S Carolina
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
Vermiculite
801~--------~------~--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
319
Vermiculite
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) 17 287
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) 52.6 n/a 33.3
Source of Net Imports (%)
European Community 28 S Africa 72 n/a 100
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) 1.5 n/a 21.8
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) c. 50 n/a c. 25 298
Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption 100 100 11 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports 100 100 10
Share of World Consumption (%)
Western world 10 n/a 5 58
Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s 3.6 n/a n/a 1.9
320
ZINC
WORLD RESERVES (million tonnes of contained zinc and% of total)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Australia 18 {10.7) Brazi 1 2 ( 1. 2) China 5 (3.0) Canada 26 {15.4) India 5 {3.0) Poland 3 (1.8) Ireland 5 {3.0) Iran 5 {3.0) USSR 11 {6.5) Japan 4 {2.4) Mexico 7 {4.1) Others 4 {2.4) S Africa 11 (6.5) Peru 8 {4.7) Spain 6 {3.5) Zaire 7 {4.1) USA 22 (13.0) Other America 3 {1.8) Others 10 {5.9) Other Africa 1 {0.6)
Others _6~) --- ----Totals 102 {60.4) 44 (26.0) 23 {13.6) Grand Total 169
The reserve base totals 300 million tonnes and identified world resources total 1.8 billion tonnes. If hypothetical and subeconomic resources are included the total would be about 4.4 billion tonnes.
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION {'000 tonnes of contained zinc and% of total 1985/86 Averages)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Australia 718.7 (10.4) Bolivia 35.8 {0.5) Bulgaria 69.0 {1.0) Canada 1231.5 (17.9) Brazil 92.2 ( 1. 3) China 210.0 (3.1) W Germany 110.7 {1.6) S Korea 39.8 (0.6) N Korea 205.0 (3.0) Greenland 66.2 {1.0) Mexico 288.0 (4.2) Poland 187.4 (2. 7) Finland 60.5 (0.9) Peru 590.1 (8.6) Romania 39.5 (0.6) Ireland 186.7 (2. 7) Zambia 50.8 (0.7) USSR 985.0 (14.3) Italy 35.9 (0.5) Zaire 77.9 (1.1) Others 16.9 (0.2) Japan 237.6 {3.5) Others 319.2 (4.6) S Africa 99.4 (1.4) Spain 229.7 (3.3) Sweden 217.9 (3.2) USA 234.0 (3.4) Yugoslavia 92.0 (1.3) Others 151.2 ~) Totals 3672.0 (53.4) 1493.8 (21.7) 1712.8 (24.9) Grand Total 6878.6
321
Zinc
WORLD SMELTER PRODUCTION (•ooo tonnes of zinc metal and % of total 1985/86 Averages)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Australia 297.2 (4.4) Algeria 32.7 (0.4) Bulgaria 90.0 (1.3) Austria 24.6 (0.4) Argentina 29.8 (0.4) China 217.5 (3.2) Belgium 270.0 (4.0) Brazi 1 122.9 (1.8) E Germany 17.0 (0.3) Canada 631.7 (9.4) India 72.4 (1.1) N Korea 190.0 (2.8) Finland 158.0 (2.4) S Korea 117.5 (1.8) Poland 179.6 (2. 7) France 252.3 (3.8) Mexico 180.4 (2.7) Romania 42.0 (0.6) W Germany 369.2 (5.5) Peru 159.6 (2.4) USSR 1040.0 (15.5) Italy 220.3 (3.3) Thailand 59.4 (0.9) Vietnam 10.0 (0.1) Japan 723.8 (10.8) Zambia 22.5 (0.3) Netherlds 199.9 (3.0) Zaire 64.0 (1.0) Norway 91.6 (1.4) Portugal 5.8 (0.1) S Africa 87.3 (1.3) Spain 206.3 (3.1) Turkey 18.8 (0.3) UK 80.1 (1.2) USA 325.1 (4.9) Yugoslavia 86.4 ____{ld) ----Totals 4048.4 (60.5) 861.2 (12.9) 1786.1 (26.7) Grand Total 6695.7
322
WORLD MINE AND SMELTER CAPACITY, 1985 {'000 tonnes of metal)
Developed Australia Belgium Canada Finland France W Germany Greenland Ireland Italy Japan S Africa Spain Sweden USA Yugoslavia Others
Total
Developing S Korea Mexico Peru Zaire Zambia Others
Total
Centrally Planned China Poland USSR Others
Total
TOTAL
Mine
740
1510 65 40
125 140 210 60
280 130 260 220 377 120 170
4447
110 340 610
90 60
765 1975
200 220 820 330
1570
7992
* Metal capacities refer to end 1986.
323
Metal*
339 325 705 160 325 415
254 797 105 268
300 160 456
4609
200 277 185
72 55
417 1206
240 240
1080 350
1910
7725
Zinc
Zinc
SECONDARY PRODUCTION: WESTERN WORLD ('000 tonnes of zinc 1985/86 Averages)
Scrap used by primary smelters (and included in primary output) 410 Remelted zinc and alloys 167 Zinc in copper and other alloys 452 Scrap as such, used by chemical plants etc. 270 Total secondary recovery additional to smelter output 889
Total secondary recovery 1299
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000:
CONSUMPTION
25
1.6 1
1985/86 Averages '000 tonnes
% p.a. growth rates 1960-70 1970-80 1980-86
European Community Japan United States Others Total Western world
Total world
1336.9 766.5 969.6
1689.5 4762.5
6591.5
3.2 13.6 3.3 7.1 5.1
5.1
0.8 2.2
-2.4 5.1 1.4
2.3
-0.3
3.6 2.9 1.6
1.4
Data refers to consumption of slab zinc. They exclude remelted zinc.
324
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (%)
USA2 UK1 W Germany1 Japan3
Galvanising 50 37 26 58 Die-casting alloys 24 19 14 17 Brass 10 23 37 13 Rolled zinc 4 2 12 3 Others 12 19 10 8
1. Zinc in all forms including scrap 2. Slab zinc including secondary refined 3. Slab zinc including secondary distilled zinc
Source: ILZSG
VALUE OF CONTAINED METAL IN ANNUAL PRODUCTION
$6.5 billion (as slab metal at average 1987 prices).
SUBSTITUTES
Aluminium, magnesium and plastics compete in some die-casting applications.
Ceramic and plastic coatings, electroplated cadmium and aluminium, and special steels compete in some galvanising applications.
Aluminium, magnesium and titanium can replace zinc in chemicals and pigments; zirconium is an alternative in ceramic and enamel applications.
Aluminium alloys, stainless steels and plastics can be used in place of brass.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Development of new alloys, eg superplastic alloys of zinc and aluminium.
Possibility of zinc batteries after 1990.
Increased recovery of secondary zinc.
Potential for more use in the automobile and construction industry, especially as a coating against rusting on steel sheets and plates.
325
1986
Zinc
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
t/lb LME Cash 33.8 34.7 40.5 34.9 34.3 36.2 US Producer 38.5 41.4 48.6 40.4 40.58 44.17 European Producer 37.8 37.2 45.3 37.9 38.9 62.0
i/tonne LME Cash* 425.1 505.1 667.2 593.3 515.57 487.08 LME Cash
Rea 1 1987 price 436.3 512.8 662.9 587.2 529.4 487.08 LME Cash monthly 393.3- 443.3- 610.9- 397.3- 402.3 440.3-
average range 445.3 597.3 720.0 807.5 -638.3 567.0
* High grade 1986 onwards
Most zinc metal is traded at producer prices, but with LME quotations becoming more and more important both directly and as a major influence on producer prices. Ores and concentrates are purchased by smelters at producer prices less negotiated treatment charges. Mine costs are influenced bj by-product values. Capital costs are such that most new mines need well over t 40/lb.
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
There is wide geographical spread of production with over 300 mines, but much smaller number of smelters, which determine prices. Market leadership in USA, and producer pricing in Europe. Latter is weakened by persistent recession, and growth of smelter production near mines in developing countries, often under state control. United Nations' International Lead and Zinc Study Group is an intergovernmental forum for statistical analysis and discussion of common problems.
326
140
130
120
110
100
90
ZINC LME cash
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
801~--------r-------~--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
327
Zinc
Zinc
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Production {1985/86 Averages) {'000 tonnes Zn content) Mine production 5.3 435.6 237.6 234.0
Smelter production 80.1 1394.4 723.8 325.1 Zinc recovered from scrap
(other than zinc in primary smelters) 53.3 350-400 138.3 277.5
Net Imports {1985/86 Averages) {'000 tonnes Zn content) Ores and concentrates 78.5 1010.7 432.2 144.0 Unwrought zinc metal 116.2 163.4 78.4 638.5
Source of Net Imports {%)
Ores and concentrates Australia 27 13 55 2 Canada 28 31 11 68 European Community 2 S Africa (inc. Namibia) 3 1 2 Spain 4 Sweden 11 Bolivia 2 Honduras 8 3 10 Mexico 6 6 1 7 Peru 16 19 24 13 Morocco 2 2 N Korea 1 Others 8 8 5 Metal Australia 9 6 Canada 29 24 8 57 European Community 30 8 Finland 25 34 3 Norway 9 22 2 Spain 2 3 5 Mexico 13 8 Peru 17 6 Zaire 1 2 2 Zambia 2 China 6 N Korea 43 Poland 6 Others 3 8 3 3
328
Zinc
UK EC ( 10) Japan USA
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes Zn content) Ores and concentrates 3.9 41.6 17.1 Unwrought zinc metal 9.8 178.1 28.4 3.0
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes Zn content) Primary metal 185.6 1336.9 766.5 980.0 Zinc recovered from scrap 53.3 350-400 39.6 (a) 342.5 Direct use of concentrates n/a 32.1
(a) Remelted zinc only
Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption 81 69 63 58 Imports as % of consumption
and net exports 77 62 61 57
Share of World Consumption (%) (primary metal) Western world 4 28 16 20 Total world 3 20 12 15
Consum~tion Growth (% p.a.) 1960s 0.7 3.2 13.6 3.3 1970s -3 0.8 2.2 -2.4
329
ZIRCONIUM
WORLD RESERVES ('000 tonnes of zirconium and% of total)
Developed Developing Centrally Planned
Australia 7900 (37.4) Brazi 1 225 ( 1.1) USSR 2720 (12.9) S Africa 3085 (14.6) India 1635 ( 7. 7) China 360 ( 1. 7) USA 3630 (17.2) Madagascar 90 (0.4)
Malaysia & Thailand 90 (0.4)
Sierra Leone 455 (2.2) Sri Lanka ---- 910 __lid) -----
Totals 14615 (69.3) 3405 (16.1) 3080 (14.6)
Grand Total 21100
The reserve base is 46.3 million tonnes and includes, in addition to the above countries, deposits in Canada.
The world's identified resources exceed 50 million tonnes of contained zirconium.
330
Zirconium
WORLD MINE PRODUCTION, 1985/86, and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985 ('000 tonnes of contained zirconium)
Mine Production Concentrates Contained
'000 t zirconium '000
Develo~ed
Australia 460 237 S Africa 160 84 USA 70 35
Total 690 356
Develo~ing
Brazil 12 6 India 15 7.5 Malaysia 12 6 Sri Lanka 4 2 Thailand 1 ~5
Total 44 22.0
Centrall~ Planned China 15 7.5 USSR 86 43
Total 101 50.5
TOTAL 835 428.5
Concentrates typically contain at least 65% zircon in zirconium.
RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS
Static reserve life (years): Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000:
CONSUMPTION
49
c. 3.5 1
(approximate consumption of concentrates)
European Community Japan United States
1985/86 Averages '000 tonnes
c. 225-240 c. 220
131
331
% of Productive t total capacity
55.3 272 19.6 64 8.2 45
83.1 381
1.4 4 1.7 7 1.4 3 0.5 4 0.1 n/a 5.1 18
1.8 8 10.0 41 11.8 49
100.0 448
(Zr02), and 74% of zircon
% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86
4.2 8.4 0.2
n/a n/a 2.0
Zirconium
END USE PATTERNS 1986 (%)
Zircon
Foundry sands Refractories Ceramics Alloys Zirconia and abrasives Other, including chemicals, and metal
for nuclear applications and chemical processing equipment
VALUE OF ANNUAL PRODUCTION
$133 million (at average 1987 prices).
SUBSTITUTES
USA
35 24 n/a
4 10
26
Japan
23 50
5
22
Chromite, olivine and silica sand can be used in place of zircon in some foundry applications. Titanium and tin compounds can replace zirconium oxide in ceramics.
A number of alternatives are available in the nuclear applications, notably stainless steel as a structural material and aluminium, niobium and vanadium for fuel containers.
Stainless steel, titanium and tantalum are substitutes in many corrosionresistant industrial applications.
Many materials, particularly ferroalloys, compete with zirconium in ferrous metal applications.
Alumina, graphite and magnesia refractories compete with zirconium refractories.
TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES
Replacement of zirconia abrasives by synthetic diamond and cubic boron nitride abrasives.
Potential use as ceramic coating in aircraft engines and other applications where strength and high temperature oxidation are important.
Increased recovery of zircon sand and zirconium metal.
Change in metallurgical methods of production could significantly reduce costs of production. Changes in metallurgical techniques would allow greater use of zirconium in industrial applications.
332
Zirconium
PRICES
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
Zircon sand
66-67% Zr02
Standard grade A$/tonne 113 115 110.8 124.4 165.4 216.8
Real 1987 price 116 116.7 110.1 123.1 169.8 216.8
MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS
Australia and S Africa are the principal sources of concentrates. Metal production is in Japan, France and the USA.
333
Zirconium
ZIRCONIUM Sand SG 66-67% Zr02
Index Numbers 1987 = 100
100
90
80
70
60
rea/1987 terms
money terms
50~--------~-------r--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
334
Zirconium
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA
UK EC(10) Japan USA
Production (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes) Zircon concentrates c. 70 Zirconium oxide n/a n/a n/a 7.7
(exc. metal producers)
Zirconium sponge and metal n/a n/a n/a n/a
Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes)
Zircon, ores & concentrates 41.1 24g,7 205 54.2 Zirconium oxide 0.72 0.37 n/a 0.9 Zirconium sponge and metal 0.14 0.39 0.14 0.35 Zirconium compounds n/a n/a n/a 2.29
Source of Net Imports (%)
Ores and concentrates Australia 54 66 85 55 European Community 2 S Africa 41 30 12 30 Argentina 12 Other 3 4 3 3
Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes) Zircon concentrates 0.4 22.25 15.6 Zirconium oxide 0.96 0.94 1.3 Zirconium metal 1.52 0.33 1.06
Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes) Zircon concentrates c. 40 225-240 c. 200 131 Zirconium oxide n/a n/a n/a 6.4 Zirconium metal n/a n/a n/a c. 3
335
Zirconium
UK EC(10) Japan
Im~ort De~endence (based on zircon concentrates) Imports as % of consumption Imports as % of consumption
and net exports
Share of World Consum~tion (of concentrates) (%) Total world (approx.)
Consum~tion Growth (% p.a.) All forms 1970s
as concentrate
100 100 100
100 100 100
c. 5 c. 27 c. 25
-1.7 4.2 8.4 (based on imports of concentrate)
336
USA
41
37
15
0.2
SOURCES AND NOTES
This handbook has drawn from a very wide range of primary and secondary statistical sources that are almost too numerous to mention. Frequently, different sources may give markedly different estimates for what is ostensibly the same figure, even when full allowance is made for differing definitions. In such instances judgement has been used. Widely varying units of measurement are used in the originals, and this handbook has standardised, with one or two exceptions on metric units.
The main sources were as follows:
World Reserves
For nearly all minerals the data are taken from US Bureau of Mines' sources, and mainly from:
Mineral Facts and Problems. 1985 Edition. Bureau of Mines Bulletin 671 Mineral Commodity Summaries 1987 Minerals Yearbook Volume 1. Metals and Minerals 1985 and 1986
Production, Consumption and Trade
The same sources as for reserves, supplemented by: World Mineral Statistics {1982-1986), published by the British Geological Survey United Kingdom Mineral Statistics {1982-1986) - British Geological Survey Metal Statistics (1976-1986) - Metallgesellschaft, particularly for the main non-ferrous metals World Metal Statistics (December 1987) - World Bureau of Metal Statistics United Nations Monthly Bulletin of Statistics Iron and Steel Statistics {1985 and 1986) - Eurostat Lead and Zinc Statistics (December 1987) - International Lead and Zinc Study Group International Tin Council Monthly Statistical Bulletin (Dec 1987) Foreign Trade Analytical Tables for 1985 and 1986 (NIMEXE) - Eurostat Statistics of Japanese Imports and Exports for 1985 and 1986 United States Trade Statistics for 1985 and 1986 Yearbook of Mining, Non-Ferrous Metals and Products Statistics - MITI Mining Year Handbook - MITI Publications of British Sulphur Corporation 'Gold' - Consolidated Goldfields {1987 edition) Silver- Handy & Harman {1986 edition) Mining Annual Review 1987 - Mining Journal Publications Engineering and Mining Journal (March 1987 and April 1988 issues) Australian Mineral Statistics (quarterly). Canberra Tungsten Statistics - Quarterly Bulletin of the UNCTAD Committee on Tungsten TEX Report- Ferro-Alloy Manual TEX Report - Iron Ore Manual Mineral Industry Surveys - Supply/Demand Data 1975-85 - USBM (for productive capacities) FAO Fertiliser Yearbooks Annuario Mineral Basileiro 1986 The Rare Metal News
337
Sources and Notes
Prices
Yearbook of Fertilisers (Japanese) Sumisho Non-Ferrous Metal News - Sumitomo Shoji K.K. Metal News. The Japan News Industry Association Aluminium, Copper, Lead and Zinc World Flow Tables - World Bureau of Metal Statistics Uranium. Resources, Production and Demand (successive issues) - OECD Nuclear Energy Agency.IAEA
Metals Week Handbooks 1982-1986 Metal Bulletin Handbooks 1982-1986 Industrial Minerals Engineering and Mining Journal USBM Mineral Yearbook and Mineral Commodity Summaries IMF - International Financial Statistics UN -Monthly Bulletin of Statistics Sulphur - B.S.C.
Prices are yearly averages unless otherwise stated.
End Use Patterns
Minerals Yearbook 1986 Edition Mineral Commodity Summaries 1987
Reserve/Production Ratios
The forecasts of cumulative demand underlying the 'dynamic' reserve ratios were taken mainly from Mineral Facts and Problems. In a few cases the US Bureau of Mines' forecasts were altered where they appeared unreasonable.
338
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