Strategic Plan for HEPEX
John Schaake, Eric Wood and Roberto Buizza
AMS Annual MeetingAtlanta
February 2, 2006
Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment
(HEPEX)
HEPEX aims to demonstrate how to produce reliable hydrological ensemble forecasts that can be used with confidence to make decisions for emergency management, water resources management and the environment
HEPEX Basic Building Blocks
• All 3 blocks are emerging
• Major work needed
• Must be done in an integrated way
Hydrologic EnsemblePrediction System
UserApplications
Weather/Climate EnsemblePrediction System
Weather and Climate Forecasts
Products, Services,Applications
Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction
SystemObservations
Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction
Elements of a Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction System
Atmospheric EnsemblePre-Processor
Hydrologic EnsembleProcessor
Land Data Assimilator
HydrologicModels
ProductGenerator
Products and Services
Single-value and ensemble forecasts
Reliable hydrologic inputs
Reliable hydrologic products
Ensemble initial conditionsEnsemble forecasts
Weather and Climate Forecasts
Obs
Initial Workshop• ECMWF - March 8-10, 2004• 80 Participants• 16 Countries• Users [NY Power, BC Hydro, Quebec
Hydro, EDF (France), Mekorot (Israel), WMIG (Canada), CddHoward (Canada), SMHI (Sweden), BGF (Germany), …]
• Meteorologists• Hydrologists
From Science to NWS Hydrologic Operations
Science Community – HEPEX Strategic Plan
OHD/RFC
HOSIPProjects
&GAPPCore
Project HEPEX Test Bed Projects
River Forecast Center Operations
Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)
Three Basic Elements of HEPEX
• Testbed Projects
• Supporting Data Sets
• Components of the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)
Future Activities
• HESS: HEPEX Special Issue• HEPEX Strategic Implementation Plan (Eric
Wood)• BAMS Article (Tom Hammil)• Testbed Workshops / Deliverables• Data Set Access / Management (JCS)• Hydrovision “track” (Chuck Howard)• Workshop #3 – Ispra, Italy – Summer 2007
Thank You
HEPEX WorkshopBoulder – July 19-22, 2005
HEPEX Testbed Projects• Canada – Great Lakes• Europe
– EU-JRC Ispra, Pan-European Flood, Po River• Brazil• U.S.
– SE U.S.– Western U.S.
• Bangladesh• PreProcessing / Statistical Downscaling• Hydrologic Uncertainty / Data Assimilation
Return
Supporting Data Sets(Under Construction)
• GFS Fixed Ensemble (1979 – present)– Temperature and Precipitation– Selected Regions
• Precipitation and Temperature Analyses– Selected Regions– Multi-scale
• Hydrological Basins– Forcing– Basin characteristics– Streamflow– Snow, soil moisture, satellite, etc
• TIGGE Ensembles• CPC Products (for US)• Other? (e.g. ECMWF, CMS, etc.)
Return
AlgorithmServices
DataServices
ControlServices
DisplayServices
SecurityServices
Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)
Federal agenciesState, regional, and local cooperatorsUniversitiesPrivate sectorInternational organizations
River Stage & FlowSurface Water Storage
Water Supply AvailabilityFlood Potential
Water Quality
Soil MoistureRunoff
Snow Water EquivalentPrecipitation
Evapotranspiration
Near-Surface
Deep
Point Information (Stations, Grid Cells)
Vector Information (River Segments)
Return
Rio Grande - Brazil• Apply– CPTEC climate ensemble forecasts– RAMS regional climate model
• Users– ANEEL– ONS
• Milestone – March 2006• AGU Chapman Conference @ Porto
Alegre, 2006?
Return
Southeast US
• Application of meteorological forcing• Include hydrologic uncertainties in
hydrologic ensembles• Application of climate information as input
to predict extreme events• Validation for extreme hydrological events
Return
Western US and British Columbia
• Prediction for 2wks to 1 year• Importance of Hydrological Model
Calibration• Data assimilation of snow• Climate forecast application strategy• Strategies for unbiasing hydrologic
ensemble forecasts
Return
Statistical Downscaling• Initial focus on application of fixed version
GFS Ensemble forecasts• Links to other testbeds• Strategies to produce ensemble forcing for
ESP?• Verification?
Return
1-14 day totals
Correlation coefficients for January
1-7 day totals
0.1
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R
Return
GAPP Ensemble Experiments (GE2)
CommunityHydrologicPredictionSystem
PIs
NWS
SharedHydroclimatic
Data Resources• Retrospective Forecasts• Historical Data• Multiscale Products
HydroclimaticTestbed
Sites• Existing GAPP projects• NOAA hydro-testbeds
• Modular algorithms• Support services
PIs
PIs
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