8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
1/41
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
2/41
Outline
Introducing UKERC
Community engagement
UKERC research
Energy 2050
Technology acceleration
Lifestyles
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
3/41
Outline
Introducing UKERC
Community engagement
UKERC research
Energy 2050
Technology acceleration
Lifestyles
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
4/41
What is UKERC? The centrepiece of the Research Councils Energy
Programme A world class centre for interdisciplinary whole
systems energy research (70+ researchers at 18Universities)
A bridge between the UK energy researchcommunity and the wider world of business, policyand international energy research Research Atlas (landscape, roadmaps, research register)
Energy Data Centre National Energy Research Network (587 members)
Meeting Place (15-20 events per annum)
Technology and policy assessment
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
5/41
UKERC II
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
6/41
May 1st
UKERC II
SupervisoryBoard
DirectorateAdvisoryBoard
Research
Committee
Research, coordinationand integration
CapacityBuilding
KnowledgeExchange
Networking
Communications
Research
Resources Atlas
NERNMeeting
Place
International
engagement
SPARKS
Jim Halliday, RALJen OtoadeseECI, Oxford
Jeff HardyUKERC HQ
UKERC HQ UKERCstudents
Publicoutreach
Website
Lex Young, UKERC HQ
Studentships SummerSchool
Administered by UKERC HQ
Energydemand
Energy andEnvironment
Energysupply
Energysystems
TPA
Nick Eyre(ECI, Oxford)
Nick Jenkins(Cardiff)
Carol Turley(PML)
Paul Ekins(KCL)
Rob Gross(Imperial)
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
7/41
Outline
Introducing UKERC Community engagement
UKERC research
Energy 2050
Technology acceleration
Lifestyles
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
8/41
Capacity building UKERC Interdisciplinary PhD
studentships Annual competition for 5-7
PhDs
Must be interdisciplinaryresearch
Alumni of 30 students
UKERC Annual Energy
Summer School 100 UK and international
students
http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/AboutUs/UKERCSummerSchool2009.
aspx
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
9/41
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
10/41
National Energy
Research Network
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
11/41
National Energy Research
Network aims to: be the first point of contact for anyone seeking UK energy
research information. develop a searchable database of members and an accurate
depiction of the UK research landscape in terms of research(Research Atlas), funders and policy.
where appropriate organise representation of UK research inspecific areas nationally and internationally, whether throughUKERC or others
organise events to bring members of the energy research
community together with an aim to facilitating a coordinating(e.g., FCH JU) or community building outcome (e.g. CarbonCrucible).
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
12/41
Meeting Place Facilitates UKERC events and
networking activities detailed planning of events,
including process design,facilitation, logistics provision andevent follow-up
A resource for all (UK)researchers
Organises between 15-20meetings per year
Expanding internationaldimension
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
13/41
an authoritative and comprehensive account of capabilities andunsolved research problems across the energy domain
Researchregisteran on-linesearchabledatabase ofenergy-relatedawards andprojects
Researchlandscapecharacterisingenergy-relatedresearch activitiesand capabilities inthe UK(programmelevel)
Researchroadmapsidentifying thesequence ofresearch (and other)
problems to beovercome beforenew technologiescan be commerciallyviable
National Energy Research Atlas
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
14/41
Outline
Introducing UKERC Community engagement
UKERC research
Energy 2050
Technology acceleration
Lifestyles
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
15/41
Research Challenges:
Driving systemic change in the
energy sector
Managing environmental
impacts
Energy security and resilience
A focus on how we
implement our aspirations
a focus on the mid-term
(2030)
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
16/41
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
17/41
Outline
Introducing UKERC Community engagement
UKERC research
Energy 2050
Technology acceleration
Lifestyles
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
18/41
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
19/41
UKERC Energy 2050 Project
Aims to show how the UK can move towards a
low-carbon energy system over the next forty
years .... the project focuses on the two primary
goals of UK energy policy achieving an 80 per
cent reduction in carbon emissions by 2050 and
ensuring that energy is delivered reliably
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
20/41
The Broad Approach No forecasts of the future
No best or preferred futures
Acknowledging uncertainty
Exploration of choices & trade-offs we face ifthe primary energy policy goals CO2reduction and security - are to be met
Combining underpinning scientific insightswith integrating, modelling tools andapproaches
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
21/41
Energy systems and whole
systems...
The UK energy system......
the set of technologies, physical infrastructure,institutions, policies and practices located in andassociated with the UK which enable energy services to
be delivered to UK consumers.
also...
... the UK energy systems interconnections with theglobal energy system, the natural environment andwider society.
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
22/41
Core Scenarios
REFReference
(firm and fundedpolicies as of EWP
2007)
RResilient
LC
Low carbon
LCR
Low carbon resilient
Resilience
LowC
arbon
ENERGY SYSTEM ATTRIBUTES
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
23/41
Workstreams
A whole systems approach.... Pathways to a low carbon energy system
Lifestyle change
The natural environment: values, impacts and tradeoffs
Technology acceleration and innovation
De-centralised energy Energy security and resilience
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
24/41
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
25/41
The Energy Mix Oil virtually disappears from the energy mix by 2050 in any 80% CO2reduction scenario
In most scenarios, electricity demand is much higher in 2050 than it is
now. There are exceptions: lifestyle change leads to lower energy demand
demand is constrained on the grounds of energy security
Environmental concerns rule out certain electricity generation options, pushing up thecost of supply side action
Nuclear power, renewables and carbon capture and storage (CCS) canall play a role in the electricity generation mix
In our scenarios, renewables deployment takes place, but more slowlythan envisaged in the EU renewable energy framework
The use of electricity and perhaps hydrogen, as opposed to bio-energy,in transport and other sectors depends on taking a long-term view ofinvestment
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
26/41
Carbon Targets and Scenarios
Scenario ScenarioName
Annualtargets
(reduction)
Cumulativetargets
Cum.emissions
GTCO2 (2000-2050)
2050emissions
MTCO2
REF Reference - - 30.03 583.5
CFH Faint-heart15% by 202040% by 2050 - 25.67 355.4
CLC(=LC-RCEP)
Low-carbon26% by 202060% by 2050
- 22.46 236.9
CAM(= LC)
Ambition(Low-Carbon
Core)
26% by 202080% by 2050
- 20.39 118.5
CSAM Superambition
32% by 202090% by 2050
- 17.98 59.2
CEA Early action32% by 202080% by 2050
- 19.24 118.5
CCP Least costpath
80% post2050
Budget(2010-2050)similar to CEA
19.24 67.1
CCSPSocially
optimal leastcost path
80% post2050
Budget(2010-2050)similar to CEA
19.24 178.6
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
27/41
Reference Case CO2 Emissions
Note: 1 tCO2 = 44/12 tC
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
M
t-CO2
Sectoral Emissions
Hydrogen
Electricity
Transport
Services
Residential
Industry
Agriculture
Upstream
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
28/41
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
29/41
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
30/41
Target Cases: Power Sector
Note: 1 PJ = 0.278 TWhr = 0.024 MTOE
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
200
0
35-
B
35-CF
H
35-CL
C
35-CA
M
35-CSAM
50-
B
50-CF
H
50-CL
C
50-CA
M
50-CSAM
PJ
Electricity generation mix Storage
Solar PV
Marine
Imports
Biowaste & others
Wind
Hydro
Oil
Nuclear
Gas CCS
Gas
Coal CCS
Coal
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
31/41
Cumulative Cases: Transport Fuels
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2000
35-CAM
35-CEA
35-CCP
35-CCSP
50-CAM
50-CEA
50-CCP
50-CCSP
PJ
Transport fuel demand
Ethanol/
methanolBio-diesel
Jet fuel
Hydrogen
Electricity
Diesel
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
32/41
Key Messages Carbon pathway scenarios offer insights on technology,
resource and demand pathways
Without major new policy intervention, climate goals will notbe met
Power sector decarbonisation is critical Higher target levels produce a deeper array of mitigation
options, albeit probably with more uncertainty
Early action produces greater mitigation in different sectors
(e.g. transport) and technology chains (e.g. wind, H2) Very wide range of economic impacts
CO2 marginal costs in 2050: 20 - 360/tCO2 Welfare costs in 2050: from B5.0 - B52.0
Convexity in costs as targets tighten
A longer-term view of a low-carbon energy systemrequires infrastructure and capital intensive solutions
Early action is unlikely to be achieved solely via a CO2 priceincentive, hence requiring additional policy measures
h l l
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
33/41
Technology Acceleration Technology acceleration has a major impact on preferred
decarbonisation pathways, esp. after 2030: much biggercontributions from accelerated low carbon technologies
Overall, provides cheaper low-carbon power, transport and heating.This means less long-term pressure on other ways to decarbonise
e.g. demand reduction
The overall costof achieving 80% decarbonisation is significantlyreduced by technology acceleration, especially after 2030.
Or, a way to decarbonise more deeply, after 2030, for the sameoverall cost
Average benefits over next 40 years are just under 1bn p.a.
Limited short term effect so emphasis is on more maturetechnologies and demand-side responses in shorter term, but withmuch expanded RD&D investments in the meantime
Also, non-economic drivers for accelerated deployment notfactored-in here
These will increase deployment in the shorter term, andpromote learning
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
34/41
Lifestyle conclusions
Lifestyle change in households andtransport can produce a combination ofenergy service demand change andefficiency improvements that:
reduce energy demand in these sectors by more
than 50% below baseline levels by 2050 reduce national energy use and carbon emissions
by ~30% below baseline
increase the share of electricity in final demand,
but reduce the need for massive electrification tomeet tough carbon targets
reduce the cost of delivering a low carbon energysystem by up to 70 billion
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
35/41
UK Energy Research [email protected]
+44 (0)20 7594 1572www.ukerc.ac.uk
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
36/41
Additional slides
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
37/41
Modelling Tools System level models
MARKAL Elastic Demand (MED): a technology rich linearoptimisation model of the integrated UK energy system,
including a wide range of supply and demand side responses E3MG: econometric model, which can be used to forecast
changes in economic structure, the energy system andassociated environmental impacts
Network Industry Models
WASP: Wien Autonomous System Planning Model electricity generation planning (mixed integer programming)
CGEN: Combined gas and electricity network non-linear
Energy Demand Sectoral Models
UKDCM: Domestic buildings carbon model
UKNDCM: Non-Domestic buildings carbon model
UKTCM: Transport and carbon model
UK MED M d l
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
38/41
UK MED Model A least cost optimization model based on life-cycle costs of
competing technology pathways (to meet energy demandservices)
Technology rich bottom-up model
An integrated energy systems model Physical, economic and policy constraints
Emphasis on sensitivity and uncertainty analysis
MED Endogenous energy
service demands
Own price elasticity:(D/D0) = (P/P0)
-E
Maximises total societalwelfare (producer plusconsumer surplus)
38
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
39/41
Core Scenarios:
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
40/41
Core Scenarios:
Common Assumptions Underlying economic growth and demand for energy
services
2% GDP growth in the long-term
Global energy prices
oil at $65-70/barrel
The availability of energy sources
Technology costs and learning rates
Investment decision criteria
a 10% real rate of return, higher in sectors where there are
barriers to take-up
Policy measures embedded in the Reference scenario weuse the firm and funded policies in the 2007 Energy WhitePaper as a baseline
C b T t d S i
8/9/2019 Sorry or Safe
41/41
Carbon Targets and Scenarios
Scenario ScenarioName
Annualtargets
(reduction)
Cumulativetargets
Cum.emissionsGTCO2 (2000-
2050)
2050emissions
MTCO2
REF Reference - - 30.03 583.5
CFH Faint-heart
15% by 2020
40% by 2050 - 25.67 355.4CLC(=LC-RCEP)
Low-carbon26% by 202060% by 2050
- 22.46 236.9
CAM(= LC)
Ambition(Low-Carbon
Core)
26% by 202080% by 2050
- 20.39 118.5
CSAM Superambition
32% by 202090% by 2050
- 17.98 59.2
CEA Early action32% by 202080% by 2050
- 19.24 118.5
CCP Least costpath
80% post2050
Budget(2010-2050)similar to CEA
19.24 67.1
CCSPSocially
optimal leastcost path
80% post2050
Budget(2010-2050)similar to CEA
19.24 178.6
Top Related