Presented by: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.
President: GraphsandLaughs, LLCMMG Expert Advisory Board Member
SLOW IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS NO IMPROVEMENT!
In addition to contributing to the Mortgage Market Guide Expert Advisory Board, Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is a nationally acclaimed economist and former Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, DC. He is a national speaker on the economic impact of homebuilding, consequences of government regulation, cost-benefit analysis, strategic business development and other current economic issues.
Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.
Here’s What We’ll Cover• What do your clients need to know about interest rates - and
how can you get them off the fence and into action?
• Could QE3 spark inflation this year and cause home loan rates to rise?
• How long will the Fed support the mortgage market? • Is the budget deficit really a concern?
• Can the improvement in the U.S. economy continue?
The Data!
Historical Job Growth Month over Month Employment Change
Net New Payroll Jobs Per Month
Total Employment Levels Well Below PeakTotal Non-farm Employment
Real Per Capita Disposable Income is Flat
Annual Y-o-Y Percent Change in GDP
Trucking Tonnage Has Recovered
Container Traffic Has More Than Recovered
As Have Factory Utilization Rates
As Have Orders for Capital Goods
ISM Non-Manufacturing Numbers are Up!
Corporate Profits are Growing Dramatically
The Stock Market is Doing Very Well
Commercial Real Estate is Recovering
Money is Not Being Lent
Monetary Velocity Drops Like a Rock
Core PCE Price Index: No Inflation Anywhere!!
Thus Low, but Not Lower Interest Rates!
Consumer Confidence While Historically Low, is Up!
Same With Small Business Confidence
ISM Numbers are Down but Holding!
Trade Deficit is Flattening Out….Maybe Worsening
It may slightly hinder employment growth
Budget Situation Looks Bad but……….
It is Improving…See!
Budget Situation is Bad but Improving….Really!
Budget Situation is Improving. Really It is!
Best of All, No Recession is in the Cards!
What About Housing?
House Prices Have Bottomed….Really They Have!!!!Real house prices
Negative Equity is Less and Less of a Problem
Seriously Delinquent Loans Trending Lower
Even in Hard Hit San Bernardino, CA
Foreclosures are Declining as a % of Sales
REO Inventory is declining too!
Existing Home Inventories Are Falling Fast
MBA Mortgage Purchase Applications – Ignore Noise!
Investors are keeping them down
Households are Repairing their Balance SheetsMore Income to Spend Elsewhere
New Home Prices – In Recovery Mode
Single-Family Starts – Beginning a Recovery
Existing Single-Family Home Sales
U.S. Home Ownership Rate Continues to Fall
Multifamily Housing Starts Stupendous Response from Growth in
Renters!!!!!
Lumber Prices are a Problem!
What About Things Here?
Things Look Pretty Good
The Future Looks So Bright, I’ll Need Shades
But…..Maybe Not due to Sequestration!
A Large Share of Mortgages Are Underwater% of Total Mortgages
Let’s Do this Without A Lawyer, Thank You!
Center of the Country is Strongest
FL #1NV #2AZ #3GA #4IL #5CA #6
State Unemployment RateSignificant differences across states
%
House Price Recovery Rates Vary
Significant differences across cities
House Price Recovery Rates Vary Significant differences across states
Long Road Back to Normal* for Single-Family Housing Starts – Q4 2013
* Normal is the average from Q1 2000 to Q4 2003
* Normal Production is measured as Single-Family housing starts between Q1
2000 and Q4 2003
Single-Family Housing StartsRelative to Normal
Less than 45%
45% to 49%49% to 61%61% to 70%Greater than 70%
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