Shipbuilding & Shipping
Forecast to 2030
Selected Highlights, Spring 2018
www.clarksons.com
About the Shipbuilding & Shipping Forecast Club
March 2018
What are the aims?
• To provide market intelligence, forecasts, analysis, education and networking opportunities to companies selling and
marketing into the shipbuilding and shipping market to support their sales, marketing and strategic planning needs. The
key deliverables include a detailed market report presented at a six monthly seminar.
What is covered?
• Freight market review and outlook
• In depth newbuilding market analysis
• Newbuild contracting forecasts to 2027 by 66 segments; fleet growth forecasts to 2030
• Financing requirement forecasts to 2030
• Trade forecasts and regional trading patterns
• Ownership trends and forecasts
• Environmental & regulatory review including projections of Scrubbers & Alternative Fuels
Who should attend?
• Any entity selling and marketing into the shipbuilding and shipping market, be that yard space, marine equipment, class
or flag services, aftersales support, insurance or finance. Any company needing to understand the shipping and
shipbuilding markets, the latest major themes and trends and their outlook to 2030.
Next seminar 26th September 2018. See page 25 for more details on the Club.
If you are interested
in attending the
Shipbuilding and
Shipping Forecast
Club, please contact
Clarksons Research
(see page 31 for
details).
2
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Spring 2018 Seminar Highlights
Please note that these highlights are provided for
illustrative purposes only and some information has
been redacted.
www.clarksons.com
Key Takeaways 1. Market cycle: 2016 toughest earnings year since financial crisis for shipping but now some potential building
blocks for the future and improved sentiment. ClarkSea Index up 14% y-o-y in 2017 but still 10% below trend.
2. Trade still growing: Economic upswing supporting trade in short term and still growth potential in shipping
demand and an Asia trend? Strongest growth in trade since 2012 – 4.1% to 11.6bn tonnes in 2017. Trade
impacted by Chinese economy and policy: Belt & Road Initiative. But still 85% of trade by sea and still long
term growth potential but range of scenarios. What factors would produce a zero growth scenario – protectionist
policies?
3. Fleet growth slowing: But still 1.3bn GT and over 56% bigger than at financial crisis so larger market for
service sector. Orderbook now 10% of fleet, down from 50% in 2008.
4. Shipyard capacity: Shipyard ordering very weak in 2016 and still pressures for capacity reductions. More
investment in 2017 from a low base and still long term requirements.
5. Consolidation: Consolidation of owner base expected. Record levels of S&P in 2017.
6. Major change in financial landscape: US$1.2 trillion dollar asset base has significant financing requirements.
But major changes including regulation and banks exiting shipping. Interest rates starting to move also.
7. Environmental regulation: Regulation accelerating and creating demand for solutions but timing and
technology difficult.
8. Technology change: Technology and innovation opportunities with e-commerce, digitalisation, data, IT and
satellite communication to ships to support productivity and regulation but still many hurdles to overcome –
cyber risk, people, company size, data etc.
9. Shipping in 2030: 15.7bn tonnes and 1.8bn GT??
10. Surviving the Cycle & Planning for Recovery.
4 March 2018
Summary of Key Trends:
1. Market Cycle Position
2. Trade Growth Forecasts
3. Fleet Growth Forecasts
4. Shipyard Capacity
5. Ownership Consolidation
6. Financial Landscape
7. Environmental Regulation
8. Technology
9. Shipping in 2030
10. Survival & Recovery
www.clarksons.com
Shipping Since the Financial Crisis
US$’000/day
Note: OPEX Index basis Moore Stephens’ published statistics, weighted using ClarkSea assumptions.
Annual
Average ClarkSea Index
(US$/day)
OPEX Index
(US$/day)
2008 32,659 6,483
2009 11,331 6,289
2010 15,480 6,480
2011 12,314 6,504
2012 9,577 6,691
2013 10,263 6,543
2014 11,743 6,509
2015 14,410 6,395
2016 9,441 6,347
2017 10,767 6,391
2018* 10,721 6,379
The ClarkSea Index, 2008 - Present
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Ja
n-0
8
Ju
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16th March 2018
US$11,066/day
Average since crisis
$11,794
2018* = year to date
Shipbuilding Forecast Club 5 March 2018
www.clarksons.com
-110% -90% -70% -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90%
ClarkSea Index
VLCC
Suezmax
Aframax
Clean Products (MR)
SS Chem Tanker 20k dwt
Capesize
Panamax
Handymax
Handy
Container 4,500 teu
Container 2,750 teu
Container 1,700 teu
PCC 6,500 ceu
Ro-Ro 3,500 lm
LPG
LNG
Offshore - Jackups
Offshore - Floaters
Offshore - PSV
Market Cycle Position: Average earnings for each ship type, compared to the average earnings since January 2009
Market Cycle Position: March 2018
Tanker markets weak
after difficult 2017
Containership rates
improving but still below
trend in some sizes, PCC
weak, Ro Ro firm
Offshore sector still weak
Bulkcarrier rates
improved and continued
investor interest
LPG weak, LNG
improving towards trend
ClarkSea Index below
trend but up y-o-y
Shipbuilding Forecast Club 6 March 2018
www.clarksons.com
Monthly Newbuild Contracts by Number
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No. Vessels
May 2009:
24 contracts
Feb 1999:
16 orders
2016: Only c.600 orders placed -
record low from “perfect storm” of all
major freight markets being weak,
over ordering in 2013 (private equity /
eco) and 2015 (Tier III), financing
conditions, yard pricing and very
weak sentiment. Oil price impacting
offshore.
Reported Shipbuilding Orders Per Month
March 2018 7
www.clarksons.com
Cruise - Major Brands (60,000+ GT ships)
Fleet Orderbook New Orders
Group Brand No. Berths No. Berths 2017 2018 (f) 2019 (f)
Carnival 25 65,944 4 18,554 2
16 44,210 2 7,120
12 35,524 4 18,400
11 19,818 1 2,650
9 21,744 3 15,000
Other 14 30,763 2 10,400 1
Royal Caribbean (includes joint venture
with TUI)
23 73,984 6 29,160 3
9 22,326 4 11,600 2
6 13,876 3 8,682
Other 2 4,482
Norwegian 15 42,810 6 21,600 4
2 2,502
MSC 14 39,965 8 41,732 4
Disney 4 8,508 3 7,500 1
Genting 1 1,964 2 10,000
1 1,070 1 800
2 6,728
All Other 3 5,422 3 8,400
Total 169 441,840 52 211,598 17
March 2018 8 Shipbuilding Forecast Club
More detailed
projections
provided as part
of Shipbuilding
Forecast Club
www.clarksons.com
Historical Shipbuilding Shares (GT)
USA
Japan
Korea
China
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
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190
2
190
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2
200
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201
2
201
7
Europe
Japan
Korea
China
Other Countries
% Global Deliveries
US
9 March 2018
www.clarksons.com
Clarksons Newbuilding Price Index
March 2018
Guideline Newbuilding Prices*
VLCC: $86m
18.5k TEU boxship: $141.5m
174k m3 LNG unit: $180m
Capesize: $46m
*as of 16/03/2018
Shipbuilding Forecast Club 10
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
100
125
150
175
200
Fe
b-0
7
Fe
b-0
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-14
Fe
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5
Fe
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Fe
b-1
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Fe
b-1
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% y-o-y Index
% Change(RHS)
www.clarksons.com
Vietnam: 29 orders of 0.7m CGT
• 24 x c.50,000 dwt MR tankers
• 4 x 80,000 dwt Kamsarmax bulkcarriers
U.A.E.: 4 orders
•4 x 103 GT crew vessels
USA: 6 orders
• 3 x 4,500 pax passenger ferries
• 2 x 2,525 TEU containerships
• 1 x 8,000 GT dredger
Singapore: 5 orders
• 2 x 7,500 cu.m. LNG carriers
• 2 x 5,987 GT dredger
• 1 x 100,000 GT FPSO
Australia: 4 orders
• 2 x 1,100 pax ferries
• 2 x 1,200 pax ferries
Bangladesh: 3 orders
• 3 x 500 cu.m. LPG carriers
India: 6 orders
• 6 x general cargo
Brazil: 4 orders
• 4 x 10,720 HP AHTS
Chile: 1 order
• 1 x 70 berth cruise ship
Indonesia: 1 order
• 1 x general cargo
Sri Lanka: 1 orders
• 1 x cable layer
Focus - Rest of the World Ordering
March 2018 11
Total ‘Other World’ Orders 2017 = 104 ships of 1.8m CGT
Shipbuilding Forecast Club
Taiwan: 2 orders
• 2 x 208,000 dwt
Newcastlemax bulkcarriers
Philippines: 37 orders
• 21 x c.82,000 dwt Kamsarmax bulkers
• 4 x c.64,000 dwt Handymax bulkers
• 2 x 79,500 cu.m. LPG carriers
• 4 x 114,000 dwt Aframax tankers
• 3 x 1,900 TEU feeder containerships
• 3 x ~600 pax ferries
www.clarksons.com
Capital Markets & Shipping
March 2018 12
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Bonds ($bn)
Bonds
Follow-Ons
IPOs
Total Raised (RHS)
No
Source: Clarksons Research
• A total of $xbn was raised on the capital
markets in 2017. This is the first annual
increase in the amount of capital raised on
the capital markets since…
• $xm was raised through x IPOs (including
initial OTC listings), $xbn through x follow-
ons…
• Of the x shipping IPOs that were carried
out in 2017, x of them were completed so
on Oslo-OTC markets…
• New York (NYSE & NASDAQ) and Oslo
(including OTC) were the most active
stock exchanges in terms of amount of
capital raised over the course of 2017.
Collectively $xbn was raised by shipping
companies on these exchanges.
Shipbuilding Forecast Club
Detailed data on
capital market
activity, including
bonds, follow-ons
and IPOs, available
as part of
Shipbuilding
Forecast Club
www.clarksons.com
Projected Transaction Investment To 2027
13
0
50
100
150
200
250
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350
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00
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26
20
27
S&P
Newbuild
US$bn
March 2018
Source: Clarksons Research
Forecasts of newbuild and
secondhand investment
provided as part of
Shipbuilding Forecast
Club.
% Share Investment
2018-2027
Newbuild x%
S&P x%
No of Transactions
p.a. 2018-2027
Newbuild x
S&P x
Total x
www.clarksons.com
China’s Belt & Road Initiative: Overview & Update
March 2018
Timeline
2013 Belt & Road initiative first proposed.
2015 Establishment of Silk Road Fund & BRICS
Development Bank.
2016
Establishment of Asian Infrastructure Bank. Belt &
Road Initiative included in China’s 13th Five Year
Plan.
2017
The ‘Belt & Road Forum’ was held in Beijing. Belt &
Road Initiative incorporated in CPC’s Constitution
and UN’s resolution.
Source: Xinhua
‘Belt & Road’ Overview
• The ‘Belt & Road’ is China’s long-term plan for increased economic co-
operation and large-scale infrastructure development across a range of
countries in Asia, the Middle East, Europe and Africa.
• A total of x countries are listed as part of the official ‘Belt & Road’ initiative,
spanning the ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘Maritime Silk Road’.
Together with China, these countries account for x% of global seaborne trade…
• An estimated $xbn has been invested in B&R projects since the start of 2014…
Region No. of Countries Key Countries
SE Asia 11 Indonesia, Malaysia, Laos
East/Central Asia 6 Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan
South Asia 8 Pakistan, Bangladesh
West Asia 3 Armenia
Russia 1 Russia
East Europe 21 Belarus, Latvia
Middle East 14 Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE
North Africa 2 Egypt
14
Shipbuilding Forecast Club includes more
detailed statistics on Belt & Road projects
and infrastructure.
www.clarksons.com
Seaborne Trade: Long-Term Scenarios
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
19
83
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29
Base Scenario
Low Scenario
High Scenario
Long-Term Seaborne Trade Scenarios
mt
International Transport Forum Transport
Outlook 2017 (OECD/ITF): Sea freight transport
demand growth 2015-30 - 3.4% per annum
Source: Clarksons Research
15 March 2018
Multiple trade
scenarios modelled
as part of
Shipbuilding
Forecast Club
www.clarksons.com
US Steel Import Tariffs
March 2018 Shipbuilding Forecast Club
Background:
• On 8th March, US President Donald Trump signed into law new tariffs of
25% on imports of steel, and 10% on imports of aluminium.
• The tariffs will apply to imports from all countries, with Canada and
Mexico exempt initially, and according to the US administration will be in
place for a ‘long period of time’.
• Other US trade partners may apply for exemptions in the future.
#1 Steel
importer
globally
US
Steel
Sector:
xmt Seaborne
imports in
2017
#4 Steel
producer in
2017
-x% Steel output
CAGR 2007-
2017
x% Steel imports
CAGR 2011-
2017
Potential Impacts on Seaborne Trade:
xmt Crude steel
production in
2017
EU
Brazil
South Korea
Russia Turkey
Japan
Mexico
Taiwan
South Africa
China
India
Vietnam
Australia
Ukraine Others
2017
xmt
US Seaborne Steel Products
Imports By Source, mt
Source: Clarksons
Research
Shipbuilding Forecast Club includes
further discussion of potential
implications of tariffs & trade friction
www.clarksons.com
Environmental Regulation Timeline
Shipbuilding Forecast Club
Date
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Baltic Sea ECA in effect
ECA – Emission Control Area North Sea ECA in effect Global NOx Tier I Limit
NOx
1.0% ECA SOx Limit SOx
EEDI for newbuildings formally adopted
Global NOx Tier II Limit
3.5% global SOx limit
North American ECA entered into force
EEDI – Energy Efficiency Design Index
EEDI & SEEMP Mandatory (Phase 0)
Ratification of BWMC
BWMC - Ballast Water Management Convention
US Caribbean ECA enters into force
BWMC applies to newbuilds & ships constructed before 8th
September 2017 if an IOPPC is completed on or after 8th
September 2014 and prior to 8th September 2017
Lower EEDI reference line (Phase 1)
0.1% ECA SOx limit
NOx Tier III ECA limit *
Lower EEDI reference line (Phase 2) 0.5% global SOx limit
Lower EEDI reference line (Phase 3)
Key
*At the MEPC 66 it was decided that, as of 1st September 2015, Tier III limits within
future ECAs will only apply to ships built after the date of adoption of the ECA, or a
later date as may be specified in the amendment designating the NOx Tier III ECA.
EU Monitoring, Reporting & Verification
MRV – Monitoring Reporting and Verification
17
MRV becomes mandatory in EU ports
EU MRV certification comes into force
North Sea & Baltic Sea NOx ECAs in effect
BWMC applies to all other ships constructed before 8th
September 2017
March 2018
www.clarksons.com
Global Fleet: Uptake of SOx Solutions So Far
Equipment Type SOx
Scrubbers ‘LNG Capable’
Fleet
% of Total Fleet
Orderbook
% of Total Orderbook
*Based on reported equipment. Data coverage is not comprehensive.
• With only a small proportion of the fleet spending over 50% of its time in SOx Emission Control Areas
(SECA) (see annex for a summary of vessel movements data), the uptake of SOx emission reduction
solutions has been relatively limited, only around x% of the current fleet would be compliant with a 0.1% limit
on the sulphur content of fuel.
March 2018 18
Scrubber
System Method
Open Loop
Closed Loop
Hybrid
More detailed data on
uptake of environmental
equipment available as
part of Shipbuilding
Forecast Club
www.clarksons.com
SOx Scrubber Equipped Fleet Development Scenarios
March 2018
- Analysis takes into account new deliveries into the fleet with scrubbers as well as retrofit demand.
- Some other forecasts are based on a refinery perspective; this model approaches from the point of view of scrubber demand and
potential yard capacity to install both scrubber units and BWMS.
- Uptick in retrofit demand expected after implementation of SOx 2020, followed by reduced demand from 2025.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
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6,000
7,000
8,000
201
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2F
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3F
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5F
202
6F
202
7F
202
8F
202
9F
203
0F
LOW CASE SCENARIO
BASE CASE SCENARIO
HIGH CASE SCENARIO
No. Ships
SHORT-TERM
SOx Scrubber Equipped Fleet Dev. Scenarios (End Year) PROVISIONAL
Slowing growth;
‘interim solution’,
competition with other
options, refinery
challenges, scrubber
technology issues
High/low cases basis
assumptions on refinery output,
scrubber costs, CO2 regulations
and technology developments
MEDIUM-TERM LONG-TERM
19
Increased demand,
but weighted towards
newbuild; retrofits
limited by weak
markets and BWMS
costs
More detailed data on uptake of environmental
equipment available as part of Shipbuilding
Forecast Club
www.clarksons.com
‘LNG Capable’ Fleet Development Scenarios
March 2018
High level demand scenarios for ‘LNG Capable’ ships take into account:
(i) price differential between the cost of traditional marine bunker fuels and LNG
(ii) the exposure of different ship types and sizes to designated ECAs prior to the introduction of the global sulphur cap
(iii) the level of general market acceptance (including designs to deal with reduced capacity, investment costs, CAPEX & returns)
20
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
201
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201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8F
201
9F
202
0F
202
1F
202
2F
202
3F
202
4F
202
5F
202
6F
202
7F
202
8F
202
9F
203
0F
'LNG Capable' Fleet Development Scenarios, End Year
LOW CASE SCENARIO
BASE CASE SCENARIO
HIGH CASE SCENARIO
No. Ships
SHORT-TERM MEDIUM-TERM LONG-TERM
More detailed data on uptake of environmental
equipment available as part of Shipbuilding Forecast
Club
www.clarksons.com
Global LNG Bunkering Facilities
March 2018 21 Shipbuilding Forecast Club
More detailed data on LNG
bunkering infrastructure
available as part of
Shipbuilding Forecast Club
www.clarksons.com
Contracting Forecast (Ship Nos)
• Number of contracts projected to remain subdued
in short-term, rising to x in 2023.
• Contracting only approaches the historical average
towards the end of the forecast period, and on
average across 2018-27 is down x% compared to
the 2001-17 average in terms of number of ships,
and x% in terms of GT.
• Average number of contracts 2020-27 equal to x
p.a.
• Overall contracting forecast 2018-26 at an average
of x vessels, up around x% (c.x units) p.a. from
Autumn 2017 forecast. Contracting in GT expected
to average xm GT p.a. in 2018-26, up x% from
previous forecast.
• Ordering trends up to x units of xm GT in 2027.
• Product mix changing in long-term.
Long-Term Contracting 2001-27
Sh
ip n
os
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Grand Total Contracting
Small Ships
Forecast
March 2018 22
Hist. avg.
Forecast broken
down by 66
shiptypes and
size sectors in
number, dwt, $.
Delivery and fleet
growth forecasts
are also available.
www.clarksons.com
World Fleet Growth Easing
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
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1,800
2,000
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23f
20
24f
20
25f
20
26f
20
27f
20
28f
20
29f
20
30f
Fleet, end year
Fleet Growth % (RHS)
Million GT y-o-y % change
Fleet growth peaked
at c. 9% in 2010
Fleet has grown
by 50% since
financial crisis
March 2018 23
Forecast broken down by 66
shiptypes and size sectors in
number, dwt, $.
Delivery and fleet growth
forecasts are also available.
To change the photo, right-click
on the background and choose
“Format Background”. Click on
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Under “Picture Colour”, make
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More Information About The Shipbuilding & Shipping Forecast to 2030
www.clarksons.com March 2018 25
• The Shipbuilding & Shipping Forecast Club provides a tailored shipbuilding research
service for those who need more in-depth knowledge, analysis and forecasts about
the shipbuilding industry.
Aims: • Market Intelligence
• Forecasts
• Analysis and Marketing
• Education
• Research
• Networking
Membership Includes: • Regular market intelligence
• Regular market forecasts and monitoring
• Bi-annual seminars including intelligence,
education and networking
• Ad hoc support and telephone hotline
Shipbuilding & Shipping Forecast Club Membership
www.clarksons.com
SFC Membership & Autumn 2018 Agenda
26
• Seminars twice a year
• Review of the newbuilding market
• Newbuilding Forecasts (2018-2027)
- Forecasts are generated for 66 ship
types and size-ranges
• Trends in key shipping segments
• Newbuilding broker expert panel
• Discussion and exchange of views
• Networking opportunities
March 2018
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Report Contents
27 March 2018
www.clarksons.com
Focus Sessions 2009-18
28
• Container Focus
• Development of Chinese
Shipbuilding
• Development of Chinese
Economy
• LNG Overview
• LNG Shipbuilding
• Offshore Focus
• Containerships with focus on
very large designs
• Cruise Industry
• New Entrants, Clusters and
Growth Companies
• Public Shipping Companies
• Small Ship Market
• Propulsion
• Container Recovery
• FPSO focus
• Rationale of 18,000 TEU
• Regulatory Agenda
• Naval, Superyacht and Fishing Market
• LNG Newbuild Order Potential
• Global Shipbuilding Capacity
• Smart Shipping
• Environmental + Regulatory Update
• The Future of Shipping
March 2018
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Shipbuilding Forecast Club Membership
29
Membership spans a variety of sectors including:
• Shipyards (7)
• Engine Manufacturers (10)
• Paint Suppliers (5)
• Classification Societies (5)
• Marine Equipment Suppliers (14)
• Government/Trade Associations (2)
• Financiers (11)
• Insurers (2)
March 2018
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Dashboard – World Fleet Register
March 2018 30 Shipbuilding Forecast Club
Key newbuilding market
developments explored, with
supporting data from Clarksons
Research World Fleet Register
dashboards:
• Bulkcarrier Contracting
• Tanker Contracting
– Focus on VLCCs
• Containership Contracting
– Focus on ordering in the Post-
Panamax and Feeder sectors
• Gas Carrier Contracting
– LNG ordering in 2018 so far
A range of Clarksons Research
shipping dashboards are available
on the World Fleet Register.
www.clarksons.com
Contacts At Clarksons Research
31
For more information on pricing and membership to the Shipbuilding & Shipping
Forecast Club please contact us for more information. Information on Clarksons
Research’s offshore focus multi-client group available on request.
Stephen Gordon
Managing Director
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7334 3439
Email: [email protected]
Alex Springer
Shipbuilding and Fabrication Group
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7334 5488
Email: [email protected]
March 2018
www.clarksons.com 32 Shipbuilding Forecast Club
The next meeting of the Shipbuilding Forecast Club will be held on
Wednesday 26th September 2018. The next Offshore Forecast Club
meeting will be held on Thursday 27th September.
Please note that an Autumn 2018 update of the attached content is available
through membership of the Shipbuilding Forecast Club.
March 2018
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Disclaimer
March 2018
The material and the information (including, without limitation, any future rates and/or forward looking predictions) contained herein (together, the "Information") are provided
by Clarkson Research Services Limited ("Clarksons Research") for general guidance and not by way of recommendation. The Information is provided on "as is" and “as
available” basis. Clarksons Research and all its Group companies make no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied about the completeness, accuracy,
reliability, suitability or availability with respect to the Information. Any reliance placed on such Information is therefore strictly at the recipient's own risk and no responsibility is
accepted for any loss or damage howsoever arising. Please note that future rates and/or forward looking predictions are for i llustration purposes only and given without
guarantee; the ultimate outcome may be different.
This Information is not for reproduction or distribution without Clarksons Research’s prior written consent. Especially, the Information is not to be used in any document for the
purposes of raising finance whether by way of debt or equity. All intellectual property rights are fully reserved by Clarksons Research, its Group companies and/or its
licensors.
This disclaimer shall be governed by and construed in accordance with English law.
CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LIMITED, COMMODITY QUAY, ST. KATHARINE DOCKS, LONDON, E1W 1BF
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