1
ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 1
SessionSession 44
Case Study on Broadband Case Study on Broadband Access Network PlanningAccess Network Planning
Ignat StanevIgnat StanevITC, BulgariaITC, Bulgaria
ITUITU --D Regional Development Forum D Regional Development Forum for the for the AmericasAmericas RegionRegion::
““ NGN and Broadband, Opportunities and ChallengesNGN and Broadband, Opportunities and Challenges””
ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 2
Content of the presentation :Content of the presentation :
� Case studies and used planning tools
� Case study 1 –Mali : Bamako urban and
suburban (for Operator)
� Case study 2 –Georgia : Tbilisi urban and
suburban (for Administration)
� Case study 3 –Tajikistan : Dushanbe urban
and suburban (for Regulator)
� Case study 4 –Moldova : Chisinau, typical
town and rural area (for Administration)
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ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 3
� The case studies present the planning process that needs to be performed for planning of broadband access networks
Case studies on broadband access network Case studies on broadband access network planningplanning
� Planning process includes market definition, dimensioning and optimization of the access network elements, economic analysis and results.
� The case studies are from ITU projects on assisting of developing countries and are performed with professional NP tools, available through ITU partners
ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 4
Case study toolsCase study tools
Market definition
Evolution forecasting
Demand mapping
Technology modeling
Network design optimization
Economy analysis
VPIsystemsVPIsystemsOnePlanOnePlanAccessAccess
MULTIlink is a complete solution
for fast microwave link
engineering and designing of
PMP/WLL/LMDS networks.
LStelcomLStelcom MULTIlinkMULTIlink
3
ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 5
Case study Bamako – urban and suburban area :
Wireline xDSLand WiMAX overlay
Customer market and revenue
ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 6
CCaseasestudy study BamakoBamako - Planning Planning xDSLxDSL ::
Technology specification
xDSL Network Optimization
4
ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 7
BS coverage
calculation
CCaseasestudy study BamakoBamako - Planning wirelessPlanning wireless::
BS coverage calculations
BS sites location
ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 8
Case study Bamako – Wireless access network :
WiMAX
overlay
network
5
ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 9
Case study Bamako - Economic Analysis :
Costs per network element
Revenues, Costs, NPN
ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 10
Tbilisi city (5 districts)
Market study
4 customer classes
Forecast for 5 years
Case study Tbilisi – urban area :
6
ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 11
Tbilisi suburban region (Tskneti, Dighomi, Tabaxmela, Chindisi )
Market study
3 customer classes
Forecast for 2 years and 5 years
Case study Tbilisi – suburban area :
ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 12
Tbilisi city (5 districts)
Technical solutionxDSL for VoIP, Fast Internet, IPTV/Video
( 134 DSLAMs )
Case study Tbilisi – access network for urban area:
7
ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 13
Tbilisi city (5 districts)
Technical solution FTTO(7 Agg. Nodes)
Case study Tbilisi – access network for urban area:
ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 14
Case study Tbilisi suburbs - mountain rural area :
Wireline xDSLvs. Wireless WiMAX
Results for xDSL
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ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 15
CCaseasestudy study Tbilisi suburbs – Wireless access network :
Results for wireless ( WiMAX )
Results for
Year +2
ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 16
Case study Tbilisi - Economic Analysis :
Revenues, Costs, NPN
Net Present Value
Tbilisi-Tskneti-Dighomi-Tabaxmela-xDSL_corr1; IRR=3 1.3%; Tbilisi-Tskneti-Dighomi-Tabaxmela-WiMAX; IRR= 81.5%
-600000
-500000
-400000
-300000
-200000
-100000
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
1 2 3 4 5
in E
uro Tbilisi-Tskneti-Dighomi-Tabaxmela-xDSL_corr1
Tbilisi-Tskneti-Dighomi-Tabaxmela-WiMAX
Net Present Value
Rural area -Tskneti-WiMAX-b-Year2; IRR=86.4%; Rural area -Tskneti-xDSL-Year2; IRR=0%
-100000
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
1 2
in E
uro Rural area -Tskneti-WiMAX-b-Year2
Rural area -Tskneti-xDSL-Year2
Results for 2
year period
Results for 5
year period
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ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 17
Case study Dushanbe – urban and suburban area :
Dushanbe urban (4 districts)
Dushanbe suburban (sample with 5 villages)
Number of Subscribers per Customer Class
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Time
Num
ber
of S
ubsc
riber
s
BB_Bus
BB_Res
Number of Subscribers per Customer Class
0
20
40
60
80
100
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Time
Num
ber
of S
ubsc
riber
s
BB_Bus
BB_Res
ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 18
Dushanbe city (4 districts)
Technical solution xDSLfor VoIP, Data, Internet, IPTV/Video( 49 MSANs and 9 EANs)
Case study Dushanbe – access network for urban area :
MSAN
Wireline xDSLand WiMAX overlay
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ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 19
Dushanbe city (4 districts)
Technical solutionxDSL for VoIP, Data, Internet, IPTV/Video( 14 MSANs)
Case study Dushanbe – access network for urban area :
Wireline xDSL -Initial solution (year +1)
ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 20
Dushanbe city (4 districts)
Technical solutionWiMAX for VoIP, Data, Internet, IPTV/Video( 25 BSs)
Case study Dushanbe – access network for urban area :
WiMAX overlay
BS
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ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 21
CCaseasestudy study Dushanbe suburbs –Wireless access network :
Results for wireless ( WiMAX )
Dushanbe suburban (sample with 5 villages)
ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 22
Case study Dushanbe - Economic Results :
Revenues, Costs, NPN
Results for initial network
Results for 5
year period
Dushanbe_BB(Pessimistic)-xDSL_v3Cost
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013
US
D
Maintenance
Installation
Acquisition
Total Cost Node (for 1/1/2009)
0500000
1000000150000020000002500000
I.S
omon
ii
Sho
hman
sur A.S
ino
A.F
irdav
si
Name
in 1
US
D
Cost
Urban area
Suburban area
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ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 23
Case study MoldovaBB marketBB market –– ForecastingForecasting :
Total number of BB customers
Evolution of BB customers Logistic model
Total Number of Subscribers
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Time
Num
ber
of S
ubsc
riber
s
Total Number ofSubscribers
Average Bandw idth
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Time
in M
bit/
s
Average Bandwidth
Estimated bandwidth requirements
Y
TT(0) T(0) + TW V
0
YV (0)
1
YWV Point of inflection
ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 24
Case study Chisinau Chisinau -- BB marketBB market :
� Pessimistic scenario Total Number of Subscribers
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Time
Num
ber
of
Sub
scrib
ers
Total Number ofSubscribers
� Optimistic scenario Number of Subscribers per Customer Class
0
50000
100000150000
200000
250000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Time
Num
ber
of S
ubsc
riber
s
BB_Bus
BB_Res
1248450644986126251Difference
126555821250621771672013
5%23%2%70%2013
114071314476509162009
15.1%17.4%0.1%67.4%2009
LAN+CATVFTTBWiMAXxDSLyear
-417620119281750322Difference
72313326428931012382013
5%23%2%70%2013
114071314476509162009
15.1%17.4%0.1%67.4%2009
LAN+CATVFTTBWiMAXxDSLyear
Estimated market segment
Estimated market segment
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ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 25
Case study Chisinau Chisinau -- BB access networkBB access network :
WiMAX
xDSLFTTB
ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 26
Case study Case study ChisinauChisinau –– economic resultseconomic results
Results for NPV : xDSL+ WiMAX + FTTB
Chisinau - NPV
0
20000000
40000000
60000000
80000000
100000000
120000000
9/1/2009 9/1/2010 9/1/2011 9/1/2012 9/1/2013
Pessimistic Optimistic
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ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 27
Case study for typical town (Nisporeny)-- BB marketBB market :
BB Customers
Bandwidth requirements
Market segment xDSL –� 2009 – 100%� 2013 - 70%
Market segment WiMAX –� 2009 – 0%� 2013 - 30%
Number of Subscribers per Customer Class
0500
1000150020002500
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Time
Num
ber
of
Sub
scrib
ers
BB_Bus
BB_Res
Average Bandw idth
010002000300040005000
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Time
in M
bit/s Average
Bandwidth
ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 28
Case study Nisporeny-- BB access networkBB access network :
WiMAX
xDSL
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ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 29
Case study Case study Nisporeny–– economic resultseconomic results
Results for NPV : xDSL + WiMAX
NPV - Nisporeni
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
9/1/2009 9/1/2010 9/1/2011 9/1/2012 9/1/2013
WxDSL&WiMAX
ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 30
Casestudy for typical rural area (Nisporeny rural) -- BB marketBB market :
BB Customers
Bandwidth requirements
Number of Subscribers per Customer Class
0
200
400
600
800
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Time
Num
ber
of S
ubsc
riber
s
BB_Bus(Rural)
BB_Res(Rural)
Common accessRural
Average Bandw idth
0
100
200
300
400
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Time
in M
bit/s Average
Bandwidth
30Huzun
347753Micleuseni
279428Dolna
140Vulcanesti
17
BB residential
19
BB total
1273
Households
752
telephones
2
BB business
Cioresti
Village
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ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 31
Case study rural -- BB access networkBB access network :
WiMAX
xDSL
ITU-D Forum Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 25 – 27 November 2009 Session 4-IS - 32
Case study Case study rural –– economic resultseconomic results
Results for NPV –xDSL + WiMAX
Rural area - NPV
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
9/1/2009 9/1/2010 9/1/2011 9/1/2012 9/1/2013
xDSL&WiMAX
Nisporeni-Rural
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
9/1/2009 9/1/2010 9/1/2011 9/1/2012 9/1/2013
xDSL WiMAX
Results for NPV –xDSL & WiMAX
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