Stepping Outside the Door: Using Building Energy Modeling to Understand the Impact
of Energy Choices
Matt Cox, PhD
The GreenlinkGroup
Seminar 16Urban-Scale Energy Modeling
• 1. Identify different models' strengths and weaknesses and suggest best practice procedures for administrators of other campuses interested in developing more sustainable campuses.
Learning Objectives
• 2. Understand the impacts of different thermal zoning methods and the use of floor multipliers on the Simulation Results of Urban Building Energy Models.
• 3. Provide an overview of energy system model advances and integration with urban building energy modeling.
• 4. Describe how a platform for data aggregation can be used to simulate various energy models.
Xiaojing Sun – The Greenlink Group
Joshua New – ORNL, Tunation
Megan O’Neil – City of Atlanta
Chris Castro – City of Orlando
Kimi Narita – NRDC
Shan Arora, Lisa Bianchi-Fossati, and Joe Winslow - Southface
Acknowledgements
Electricity markets:
• Complex and sophisticated
Policy and Regulatory structures:• High variability
• Adequate valuation is a need for all resources
ATHENIA
• In-house AI model for providing policy-relevant information
Evaluating System Impacts
Building stock characterizationLoad profile developmentWeights and Aggregation
Residential and Commercial Demand Profiles
Potentials StudyScenario DesignRe-aggregation
Integrating Efficiency and Renewables
84
This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.
Figure C-9. Electric efficiency supply curve for Florida
Figure C-10. Electric efficiency supply curve for Georgia
$0. 00
$0. 50
$1. 00
$1. 50
$2. 00
$2. 50
$3. 00
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
$/W
Inst
alle
d
DG PV- R DG PV- C UP V
Hourly emissions• 7 pollutants• Accounting for unit and dispatch behavior• Incorporate power purchases
Emissions Impacts and Improvements
Example of dispatch and emissions outputs
Gaussian plume dispersion model• 6 pollutants, stack heightsSocial cost of carbon
Determining Societal Damages
Using the algorithms significantly improves accuracy:Southeast test case • Average building CV(RMSE) reduced by 14x• Dispatch error reduced by 80x
Statistical Validation
Atlanta Better Buildings Challenge• Voluntary; 20% reduction in energy and water by 2020Atlanta 100% Clean Energy Plan• Community to meet all demand with ”clean” energy by 2035
Policies and Programs: 2 Atlanta Applications
Policies and Programs: Atlanta Better Buildings Challenge
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
MW
Ene rg y Sav ings
Avoided Illness,
Relative to BAU
Minor Restricted
Activity Days
Work Loss Days
Upper Respiratory Symptoms
Lower Respiratory Symptoms
Asthma Exacerbation
Number of Avoided
Instances405 68 15 10 15
Policies and Programs: Atlanta 100% Clean Energy Plan
36 37
Pathways to 100% Clean EnergyPathways to 100% Clean Energy
Scenario No.250% Renewable Energy
Cumulative Benefits$15.435 Billion
Cumulative Costs$373 Million
Net Benefits$15.062 Billion
Benefit to Cost Ratio41.4
Majority reliance RECs
with minor reliance on
rooftop and efficiency
Through 2035Local Jobs Created
Local Incomes Increased By
Local GDP Growth
Public Health Savings
Metric Tons CO2 Reduced
In 2035Household Bill Savings
Mo. Bill Savings: Participants
Mo. Bill Savings: Non Participants
Commercial Total Bill Savings
Mo. Bill Savings: Participants
Mo. Bill Savings: Non Participants
Full Impact17,000
$991 Million
$838 Million
$231 Million
5,297,000
$1.254 Billion
$141
$35
$2.415 Billion
$770
$513
Coca Cola HQ
Per Atl. Citizen per Yr
Delta Global Revenue
Mo. Health Ins. Savings
Mo. w/o Cars
Home Electricity
Bill Savings
Home Electricity
Bill Savings
1.9
$117
13.7%
$2.26
7
57%
14%
28%
19%
Equal To
31% 31%2% 1%14%2%3% 4%6%6%
82%12%1% 2% 3%
Scenario No.1: Business As Usual 0% Increase in Renewable Energy
Cumulative Benefits$0
Cumulative Costs$1,000,000
Net Benefits-$1,000,000
Benefit to Cost Ratio0.0
Even reliance on three
upgrade options
Through 2035Local Jobs Created
Local Incomes Increased By
Local GDP Growth
Public Health Savings
Metric Tons CO2 Reduced
In 2035Household Bill Savings
Mo. Bill Savings: Participants
Mo. Bill Savings: Non Participants
Commercial Total Bill Savings
Mo. Bill Savings: Participants
Mo. Bill Savings: Non Participants
Full Impact0
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
0
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
Coca Cola HQ
Per Atl. Citizen per Yr
Delta Global Revenue
Mo. Health Ins. Savings
Mo. w/o Cars
Home Electricity
Bill Savings
Home Electricity
Bill Savings
0.0
$0.00
0.0%
$0.00
0
0%
0%
0%
0%
Equal To
Residential Solar
Commercial Solar
Utility Solar
Hydro Con
Imported REC Purchase
Imported Wind
Single Family Efficiency
Multifamily Efficiency
Commercial Efficiency
GA SREC
Renewable Energy Source Key
Scenario No.1Business-as-Usual - 0%
18% of Atlanta’s electricity
is directly provided by clean
energy sources.
Homes and commercial
buildings undergo energy
renovations.
Homes and commercial
buildings install solar panels.
Homes powered by community
solar.
Out-of-state wind farms financed by Atlanta.
Scenario No.250% Renewable Energy
38% of Atlanta’s electricity
is directly provided by clean
energy.
45K homes undergo energy
renovations.
6.75K commercial building
energy renovations.
24.2K home solar installs.
715 commercial solar installs.
6.2K homes powered by
community solar.
15 out-of-state wind farms
financed by Atlanta.
Scenario No.3100% Renewable Energy
66% of Atlanta’s electricity
is directly provided by clean
energy.
90K homes undergo energy
renovations.
13.5K commercial building
energy renovations.
48.3K home solar installs.
1,430 commercial solar installs.
12.5K homes powered by
community solar.
30 out-of-state wind farms
financed by Atlanta.
The following three scenarios outline estimated impacts from clean energy investment with no change (0%), a 50% investment in clean energy and a 100% investment.
The Potential Local Clean Energy Upgrades
Efficiency UpgradesModerate potential for impact
Rooftop Solar UpgradesLow Potential for Impact
Purchase of RECsHigh potential for impact
Scenario No.3: 100% Renewable Energy
Cumulative Benefits$28.783 Billion
Cumulative Costs$1.379 Billion
Net Benefits$27.404 Billion
Benefit to Cost Ratio20.9
Full reliance RECs with
no reliance on rooftop
and efficiency
Through 2035Local Jobs Created
Local Incomes Increased By
Local GDP Growth
Public Health Savings
Metric Tons CO2 Reduced
In 2035Household Bill Savings
Mo. Bill Savings: Participants
Mo. Bill Savings: Non Participants
Commercial Total Bill Savings
Mo. Bill Savings: Participants
Mo. Bill Savings: Non Participants
Full Impact31.1K
$1.814 Billion
$1.536 Billion
$594 Million
13.449 Million
$2.252 Billion
$234
$63
$4.446 Billion
$2,040
$929
Coca Cola HQ
Per Atl. Citizen per Yr
Delta Global Revenue
Mo. Health Ins. Savings
Mo. w/o Cars
Home Electricity
Bill Savings
Home Electricity
Bill Savings
3.5
$213
25.2%
$5.82
17
95%
26%
74%
34%
Equal To
34%18%9%10%1% 3%15%5%5%
36 37
Pathways to 100% Clean EnergyPathways to 100% Clean Energy
Scenario No.250% Renewable Energy
Cumulative Benefits$15.435 Billion
Cumulative Costs$373 Million
Net Benefits$15.062 Billion
Benefit to Cost Ratio41.4
Majority reliance RECs
with minor reliance on
rooftop and efficiency
Through 2035Local Jobs Created
Local Incomes Increased By
Local GDP Growth
Public Health Savings
Metric Tons CO2 Reduced
In 2035Household Bill Savings
Mo. Bill Savings: Participants
Mo. Bill Savings: Non Participants
Commercial Total Bill Savings
Mo. Bill Savings: Participants
Mo. Bill Savings: Non Participants
Full Impact17,000
$991 Million
$838 Million
$231 Million
5,297,000
$1.254 Billion
$141
$35
$2.415 Billion
$770
$513
Coca Cola HQ
Per Atl. Citizen per Yr
Delta Global Revenue
Mo. Health Ins. Savings
Mo. w/o Cars
Home Electricity
Bill Savings
Home Electricity
Bill Savings
1.9
$117
13.7%
$2.26
7
57%
14%
28%
19%
Equal To
31% 31%2% 1%14%2%3% 4%6%6%
82%12%1% 2% 3%
Scenario No.1: Business As Usual 0% Increase in Renewable Energy
Cumulative Benefits$0
Cumulative Costs$1,000,000
Net Benefits-$1,000,000
Benefit to Cost Ratio0.0
Even reliance on three
upgrade options
Through 2035Local Jobs Created
Local Incomes Increased By
Local GDP Growth
Public Health Savings
Metric Tons CO2 Reduced
In 2035Household Bill Savings
Mo. Bill Savings: Participants
Mo. Bill Savings: Non Participants
Commercial Total Bill Savings
Mo. Bill Savings: Participants
Mo. Bill Savings: Non Participants
Full Impact0
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
0
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
Coca Cola HQ
Per Atl. Citizen per Yr
Delta Global Revenue
Mo. Health Ins. Savings
Mo. w/o Cars
Home Electricity
Bill Savings
Home Electricity
Bill Savings
0.0
$0.00
0.0%
$0.00
0
0%
0%
0%
0%
Equal To
Residential Solar
Commercial Solar
Utility Solar
Hydro Con
Imported REC Purchase
Imported Wind
Single Family Efficiency
Multifamily Efficiency
Commercial Efficiency
GA SREC
Renewable Energy Source Key
Scenario No.1Business-as-Usual - 0%
18% of Atlanta’s electricity
is directly provided by clean
energy sources.
Homes and commercial
buildings undergo energy
renovations.
Homes and commercial
buildings install solar panels.
Homes powered by community
solar.
Out-of-state wind farms financed by Atlanta.
Scenario No.250% Renewable Energy
38% of Atlanta’s electricity
is directly provided by clean
energy.
45K homes undergo energy
renovations.
6.75K commercial building
energy renovations.
24.2K home solar installs.
715 commercial solar installs.
6.2K homes powered by
community solar.
15 out-of-state wind farms
financed by Atlanta.
Scenario No.3100% Renewable Energy
66% of Atlanta’s electricity
is directly provided by clean
energy.
90K homes undergo energy
renovations.
13.5K commercial building
energy renovations.
48.3K home solar installs.
1,430 commercial solar installs.
12.5K homes powered by
community solar.
30 out-of-state wind farms
financed by Atlanta.
The following three scenarios outline estimated impacts from clean energy investment with no change (0%), a 50% investment in clean energy and a 100% investment.
The Potential Local Clean Energy Upgrades
Efficiency UpgradesModerate potential for impact
Rooftop Solar UpgradesLow Potential for Impact
Purchase of RECsHigh potential for impact
Scenario No.3: 100% Renewable Energy
Cumulative Benefits$28.783 Billion
Cumulative Costs$1.379 Billion
Net Benefits$27.404 Billion
Benefit to Cost Ratio20.9
Full reliance RECs with
no reliance on rooftop
and efficiency
Through 2035Local Jobs Created
Local Incomes Increased By
Local GDP Growth
Public Health Savings
Metric Tons CO2 Reduced
In 2035Household Bill Savings
Mo. Bill Savings: Participants
Mo. Bill Savings: Non Participants
Commercial Total Bill Savings
Mo. Bill Savings: Participants
Mo. Bill Savings: Non Participants
Full Impact31.1K
$1.814 Billion
$1.536 Billion
$594 Million
13.449 Million
$2.252 Billion
$234
$63
$4.446 Billion
$2,040
$929
Coca Cola HQ
Per Atl. Citizen per Yr
Delta Global Revenue
Mo. Health Ins. Savings
Mo. w/o Cars
Home Electricity
Bill Savings
Home Electricity
Bill Savings
3.5
$213
25.2%
$5.82
17
95%
26%
74%
34%
Equal To
34%18%9%10%1% 3%15%5%5%
36 37
Pathways to 100% Clean EnergyPathways to 100% Clean Energy
Scenario No.250% Renewable Energy
Cumulative Benefits$15.435 Billion
Cumulative Costs$373 Million
Net Benefits$15.062 Billion
Benefit to Cost Ratio41.4
Majority reliance RECs
with minor reliance on
rooftop and efficiency
Through 2035Local Jobs Created
Local Incomes Increased By
Local GDP Growth
Public Health Savings
Metric Tons CO2 Reduced
In 2035Household Bill Savings
Mo. Bill Savings: Participants
Mo. Bill Savings: Non Participants
Commercial Total Bill Savings
Mo. Bill Savings: Participants
Mo. Bill Savings: Non Participants
Full Impact17,000
$991 Million
$838 Million
$231 Million
5,297,000
$1.254 Billion
$141
$35
$2.415 Billion
$770
$513
Coca Cola HQ
Per Atl. Citizen per Yr
Delta Global Revenue
Mo. Health Ins. Savings
Mo. w/o Cars
Home Electricity
Bill Savings
Home Electricity
Bill Savings
1.9
$117
13.7%
$2.26
7
57%
14%
28%
19%
Equal To
31% 31%2% 1%14%2%3% 4%6%6%
82%12%1% 2% 3%
Scenario No.1: Business As Usual 0% Increase in Renewable Energy
Cumulative Benefits$0
Cumulative Costs$1,000,000
Net Benefits-$1,000,000
Benefit to Cost Ratio0.0
Even reliance on three
upgrade options
Through 2035Local Jobs Created
Local Incomes Increased By
Local GDP Growth
Public Health Savings
Metric Tons CO2 Reduced
In 2035Household Bill Savings
Mo. Bill Savings: Participants
Mo. Bill Savings: Non Participants
Commercial Total Bill Savings
Mo. Bill Savings: Participants
Mo. Bill Savings: Non Participants
Full Impact0
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
0
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
Coca Cola HQ
Per Atl. Citizen per Yr
Delta Global Revenue
Mo. Health Ins. Savings
Mo. w/o Cars
Home Electricity
Bill Savings
Home Electricity
Bill Savings
0.0
$0.00
0.0%
$0.00
0
0%
0%
0%
0%
Equal To
Residential Solar
Commercial Solar
Utility Solar
Hydro Con
Imported REC Purchase
Imported Wind
Single Family Efficiency
Multifamily Efficiency
Commercial Efficiency
GA SREC
Renewable Energy Source Key
Scenario No.1Business-as-Usual - 0%
18% of Atlanta’s electricity
is directly provided by clean
energy sources.
Homes and commercial
buildings undergo energy
renovations.
Homes and commercial
buildings install solar panels.
Homes powered by community
solar.
Out-of-state wind farms financed by Atlanta.
Scenario No.250% Renewable Energy
38% of Atlanta’s electricity
is directly provided by clean
energy.
45K homes undergo energy
renovations.
6.75K commercial building
energy renovations.
24.2K home solar installs.
715 commercial solar installs.
6.2K homes powered by
community solar.
15 out-of-state wind farms
financed by Atlanta.
Scenario No.3100% Renewable Energy
66% of Atlanta’s electricity
is directly provided by clean
energy.
90K homes undergo energy
renovations.
13.5K commercial building
energy renovations.
48.3K home solar installs.
1,430 commercial solar installs.
12.5K homes powered by
community solar.
30 out-of-state wind farms
financed by Atlanta.
The following three scenarios outline estimated impacts from clean energy investment with no change (0%), a 50% investment in clean energy and a 100% investment.
The Potential Local Clean Energy Upgrades
Efficiency UpgradesModerate potential for impact
Rooftop Solar UpgradesLow Potential for Impact
Purchase of RECsHigh potential for impact
Scenario No.3: 100% Renewable Energy
Cumulative Benefits$28.783 Billion
Cumulative Costs$1.379 Billion
Net Benefits$27.404 Billion
Benefit to Cost Ratio20.9
Full reliance RECs with
no reliance on rooftop
and efficiency
Through 2035Local Jobs Created
Local Incomes Increased By
Local GDP Growth
Public Health Savings
Metric Tons CO2 Reduced
In 2035Household Bill Savings
Mo. Bill Savings: Participants
Mo. Bill Savings: Non Participants
Commercial Total Bill Savings
Mo. Bill Savings: Participants
Mo. Bill Savings: Non Participants
Full Impact31.1K
$1.814 Billion
$1.536 Billion
$594 Million
13.449 Million
$2.252 Billion
$234
$63
$4.446 Billion
$2,040
$929
Coca Cola HQ
Per Atl. Citizen per Yr
Delta Global Revenue
Mo. Health Ins. Savings
Mo. w/o Cars
Home Electricity
Bill Savings
Home Electricity
Bill Savings
3.5
$213
25.2%
$5.82
17
95%
26%
74%
34%
Equal To
34%18%9%10%1% 3%15%5%5%
36 37
Pathways to 100% Clean EnergyPathways to 100% Clean Energy
Scenario No.250% Renewable Energy
Cumulative Benefits$15.435 Billion
Cumulative Costs$373 Million
Net Benefits$15.062 Billion
Benefit to Cost Ratio41.4
Majority reliance RECs
with minor reliance on
rooftop and efficiency
Through 2035Local Jobs Created
Local Incomes Increased By
Local GDP Growth
Public Health Savings
Metric Tons CO2 Reduced
In 2035Household Bill Savings
Mo. Bill Savings: Participants
Mo. Bill Savings: Non Participants
Commercial Total Bill Savings
Mo. Bill Savings: Participants
Mo. Bill Savings: Non Participants
Full Impact17,000
$991 Million
$838 Million
$231 Million
5,297,000
$1.254 Billion
$141
$35
$2.415 Billion
$770
$513
Coca Cola HQ
Per Atl. Citizen per Yr
Delta Global Revenue
Mo. Health Ins. Savings
Mo. w/o Cars
Home Electricity
Bill Savings
Home Electricity
Bill Savings
1.9
$117
13.7%
$2.26
7
57%
14%
28%
19%
Equal To
31% 31%2% 1%14%2%3% 4%6%6%
82%12%1% 2% 3%
Scenario No.1: Business As Usual 0% Increase in Renewable Energy
Cumulative Benefits$0
Cumulative Costs$1,000,000
Net Benefits-$1,000,000
Benefit to Cost Ratio0.0
Even reliance on three
upgrade options
Through 2035Local Jobs Created
Local Incomes Increased By
Local GDP Growth
Public Health Savings
Metric Tons CO2 Reduced
In 2035Household Bill Savings
Mo. Bill Savings: Participants
Mo. Bill Savings: Non Participants
Commercial Total Bill Savings
Mo. Bill Savings: Participants
Mo. Bill Savings: Non Participants
Full Impact0
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
0
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
Coca Cola HQ
Per Atl. Citizen per Yr
Delta Global Revenue
Mo. Health Ins. Savings
Mo. w/o Cars
Home Electricity
Bill Savings
Home Electricity
Bill Savings
0.0
$0.00
0.0%
$0.00
0
0%
0%
0%
0%
Equal To
Residential Solar
Commercial Solar
Utility Solar
Hydro Con
Imported REC Purchase
Imported Wind
Single Family Efficiency
Multifamily Efficiency
Commercial Efficiency
GA SREC
Renewable Energy Source Key
Scenario No.1Business-as-Usual - 0%
18% of Atlanta’s electricity
is directly provided by clean
energy sources.
Homes and commercial
buildings undergo energy
renovations.
Homes and commercial
buildings install solar panels.
Homes powered by community
solar.
Out-of-state wind farms financed by Atlanta.
Scenario No.250% Renewable Energy
38% of Atlanta’s electricity
is directly provided by clean
energy.
45K homes undergo energy
renovations.
6.75K commercial building
energy renovations.
24.2K home solar installs.
715 commercial solar installs.
6.2K homes powered by
community solar.
15 out-of-state wind farms
financed by Atlanta.
Scenario No.3100% Renewable Energy
66% of Atlanta’s electricity
is directly provided by clean
energy.
90K homes undergo energy
renovations.
13.5K commercial building
energy renovations.
48.3K home solar installs.
1,430 commercial solar installs.
12.5K homes powered by
community solar.
30 out-of-state wind farms
financed by Atlanta.
The following three scenarios outline estimated impacts from clean energy investment with no change (0%), a 50% investment in clean energy and a 100% investment.
The Potential Local Clean Energy Upgrades
Efficiency UpgradesModerate potential for impact
Rooftop Solar UpgradesLow Potential for Impact
Purchase of RECsHigh potential for impact
Scenario No.3: 100% Renewable Energy
Cumulative Benefits$28.783 Billion
Cumulative Costs$1.379 Billion
Net Benefits$27.404 Billion
Benefit to Cost Ratio20.9
Full reliance RECs with
no reliance on rooftop
and efficiency
Through 2035Local Jobs Created
Local Incomes Increased By
Local GDP Growth
Public Health Savings
Metric Tons CO2 Reduced
In 2035Household Bill Savings
Mo. Bill Savings: Participants
Mo. Bill Savings: Non Participants
Commercial Total Bill Savings
Mo. Bill Savings: Participants
Mo. Bill Savings: Non Participants
Full Impact31.1K
$1.814 Billion
$1.536 Billion
$594 Million
13.449 Million
$2.252 Billion
$234
$63
$4.446 Billion
$2,040
$929
Coca Cola HQ
Per Atl. Citizen per Yr
Delta Global Revenue
Mo. Health Ins. Savings
Mo. w/o Cars
Home Electricity
Bill Savings
Home Electricity
Bill Savings
3.5
$213
25.2%
$5.82
17
95%
26%
74%
34%
Equal To
34%18%9%10%1% 3%15%5%5%
• Benefits beyond the front door are substantial and they scale• Assessment methodologies are constantly improving• You may not be telling your best story• Policymakers can miss out without all the relevant data, disincentivizing
efficiency and renewables
Conclusion
Matt Cox
Questions?
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