Secukinumab (Psoriasis) - Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
REFERENCE CODE GDHC1171DFR | PUBLICATION DATE MAY 2013
SECUKINUMAB (PSORIASIS) - FORECAST AND MARKET ANALYSIS TO 2022
Secukinumab (Psoriasis) - Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022 2 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
SECUKINUMAB (PSORIASIS) - FORECAST AND MARKET ANALYSIS TO 2022
Executive Summary
Table below presents key metrics for secukinumab
in seven of the nine major pharmaceutical markets
covered in this report.
Secukinumab: Key Metrics in the Psoriasis Markets
2022 Market Sales
US $233.1m
5EU $115.3m
Japan $0.7m
Total 7MM $349.1m
Key Events (2012–2022) Level of Impact
Launch of secukinumab in the US (2014) & EU (Italy in 2015 and Spain in 2016) ↑↑↑
Source: GlobalData *For the purpose of this report, 7MM = US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan
Sales of Secukinumab in the Global Psoriasis Market, 2022
GlobalData expects Novartis to launch
secukinumab in the US in 2014 and EU (2015 Italy
and Spain in 2016) and Japan in 2016. We
estimate the 2022 drug sales of secukinumab will
reach $349.1m across these markets. Key factors
affecting the uptake of secukinumab will include:
Potential for monthly dosing frequency and
clinically advanced status of the drug.
Novartis’ reputation for drug discovery and
manufacturing, and extensive financial
resources and marketing capabilities.
Despite these drivers, the PsO market will be
crowded, including two other IL-17 inhibitors.
Individual drugs will struggle to gain a foothold as
they distinguish themselves from each other.
Secukinumab (Psoriasis) - Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022 3 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
SECUKINUMAB (PSORIASIS) - FORECAST AND MARKET ANALYSIS TO 2022
Executive Summary
Figure below presents sales for secukinumab by
region in the PsO market, 2022
Secukinumab Sales by Region, 2022
66.8%
33%
0.2%
US
5EU
Japan
2022Total: $349.1m
Source: GlobalData
What do the Physicians Think?
Drug resistance and patients becoming refractory
to therapies in less than three years have become
main issues of discussion in the PsO world.
“The resistance issue will be an issue in the five-
year [time] frame. We need alternative, possible
alternative choices. The larger the number of
available drugs, the better.”
[EU] key opinion leader, January 2013
The upcoming launches of the IL-17 inhibitors have
KOLs extremely excited, as they hope to be able to
put them to use early in the treatment paradigm.
However, we encountered some physician experts
who felt that the current pipeline would not unseat
the established anti-TNF drugs.
“I’m most excited about the antagonist IL-17. I find
these drugs very effective and quite safe. I think
they will probably have a role in the future.”
[EU] key opinion leader, January 2013
“I don’t think [the] new biologics coming will have
an impact on the use of TNF inhibitors.”
[US] key opinion leader, December 2012
Secukinumab (Psoriasis) - Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022 4 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
SECUKINUMAB (PSORIASIS) - FORECAST AND MARKET ANALYSIS TO 2022
Executive Summary
The use of biosimilars has also been a hot topic
among dermatologists and other physicians who
prescribe biologics for the warranted indications.
However, there is a misconception as to the pricing
of these biologic generics; we discovered mixed
feelings among physicians regarding their
presence due to manufacturing or pricing.
“I think it’s an opportunity. This market is highly
price-sensitive...when they come to the market;
they will completely grab the market of the anti-
TNFs, provided the prices are 30 to 50%. It is very
significant…If it’s 20%, then I’m disappointed.”
[EU] key opinion leader, January 2013
Secukinumab (Psoriasis) - Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022 5 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
SECUKINUMAB (PSORIASIS) - FORECAST AND MARKET ANALYSIS TO 2022
Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents .......................................................................................................................... 5
1.1 List of Tables .......................................................................................................................... 8
1.2 List of Figures ......................................................................................................................... 9
2 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 10
2.1 Catalyst ................................................................................................................................ 10
2.2 Related Reports ................................................................................................................... 10
2.3 Upcoming Related Reports ................................................................................................... 12
3 Disease Overview ....................................................................................................................... 13
3.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology ............................................................................................... 13
3.1.1 Etiology ........................................................................................................................... 13
3.1.2 Pathophysiology ............................................................................................................. 15
3.2 Symptoms ............................................................................................................................ 18
4 Disease Management.................................................................................................................. 19
4.1 Treatment Overview ............................................................................................................. 20
5 Competitive Assessment ............................................................................................................. 24
5.1 Overview .............................................................................................................................. 24
5.2 Strategic Competitor Assessment ......................................................................................... 25
6 Opportunity and Unmet Need ...................................................................................................... 26
6.1 Overview .............................................................................................................................. 26
6.2 Unmet Needs ....................................................................................................................... 27
6.2.1 Improved Drug Safety and Efficacy Profiles .................................................................... 27
6.2.2 Biomarkers for Predicting Remission .............................................................................. 28
6.2.3 More Cost-Effective Therapies Through Oral Formulation and Biosimilars ..................... 28
Secukinumab (Psoriasis) - Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022 6 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
SECUKINUMAB (PSORIASIS) - FORECAST AND MARKET ANALYSIS TO 2022
Table of Contents
6.2.4 Education and Treatment of Psychological Factors Accompanying Psoriasis ................. 29
6.2.5 An Effective Biologic/Systemic Topical Therapy ............................................................. 29
6.2.6 More Effective Treatment for Mild Psoriasis, Specifically UV Therapies .......................... 30
6.2.7 Physician Education About the Different Types of Psoriasis, not Just Plaque Psoriasis .. 30
6.3 Opportunities ........................................................................................................................ 31
6.4 Unmet Needs Gap Analysis .................................................................................................. 31
6.4.1 Predictive Tools for Diagnosis and Treatment ................................................................. 32
6.4.2 Target Specificity ............................................................................................................ 32
6.4.3 Topical Biologic/Systemic Therapeutic Options .............................................................. 33
6.4.4 Helping Patients with Psychological Issues Associated with Psoriasis ............................ 33
7 Pipeline Assessment ................................................................................................................... 34
7.1 Overview .............................................................................................................................. 34
7.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development ............................................................................. 35
8 Secukinumab (AIN457) ............................................................................................................... 37
8.1 Overview .............................................................................................................................. 37
8.2 Efficacy ................................................................................................................................. 38
8.3 Safety ................................................................................................................................... 39
8.4 Dosing and Formulation ....................................................................................................... 39
8.5 Potential Clinical Positioning ................................................................................................. 40
8.6 Potential Commercial Positioning ......................................................................................... 40
8.7 Pricing and Reimbursement ................................................................................................. 41
8.8 SWOT Analysis .................................................................................................................... 42
8.9 Forecast ............................................................................................................................... 43
9 Appendix ..................................................................................................................................... 44
9.1 Bibliography.......................................................................................................................... 44
Secukinumab (Psoriasis) - Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022 7 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
SECUKINUMAB (PSORIASIS) - FORECAST AND MARKET ANALYSIS TO 2022
Table of Contents
9.2 Abbreviations........................................................................................................................ 46
9.3 Methodology ......................................................................................................................... 49
9.4 Forecasting Methodology ..................................................................................................... 49
9.4.1 Diagnosed Psoriasis Patients ......................................................................................... 49
9.4.2 Percent Drug-Treated Patients ....................................................................................... 50
9.4.3 General Pricing Assumptions .......................................................................................... 50
9.4.4 Generic Erosion .............................................................................................................. 51
9.4.5 Pricing of Pipeline agents ............................................................................................... 51
9.5 Physicians and Specialists Included in this Study ................................................................. 52
9.6 Primary Research – Prescriber Survey ................................................................................. 53
9.7 About the Authors ................................................................................................................. 54
9.7.1 Analysts .......................................................................................................................... 54
9.7.2 Global Head of Healthcare .............................................................................................. 55
9.8 About GlobalData ................................................................................................................. 56
9.9 Disclaimer ............................................................................................................................ 56
Secukinumab (Psoriasis) - Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022 8 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
SECUKINUMAB (PSORIASIS) - FORECAST AND MARKET ANALYSIS TO 2022
Table of Contents
1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Immune Cells Involved in Lesions ................................................................................................. 15
Table 2: Symptoms of Psoriasis ................................................................................................................. 18
Table 3: Minimal Investigative Measures Required Before Prescribing Biologics for Psoriasis .................... 21
Table 4: Treatment Guidelines for Psoriasis ............................................................................................... 23
Table 5: Top Three Biologics Prescribed for Moderate to Severe Psoriasis by Market, 2012....................... 23
Table 6: Leading Treatments for Psoriasis, 2013 ........................................................................................ 25
Table 7: Overall Unmet Needs in Psoriasis – Current Level of Attainment .................................................. 27
Table 8: Clinical Unmet Needs in Psoriasis – Gap Analysis, 2013 .............................................................. 32
Table 9: Psoriasis – Phase Pipeline, 2013 .................................................................................................. 35
Table 10: Comparison of Therapeutic Classes in Development for Psoriasis, 2013 ...................................... 36
Table 11: Product Profile – Secukinumab ..................................................................................................... 38
Table 12: Secukinumab SWOT Analysis, 2013 ............................................................................................ 42
Table 13: Global Sales Forecasts ($) for Secukinumab, 2012–2022 ............................................................. 43
Table 14: Physicians Surveyed, By Country ................................................................................................. 53
Secukinumab (Psoriasis) - Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022 9 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
SECUKINUMAB (PSORIASIS) - FORECAST AND MARKET ANALYSIS TO 2022
Table of Contents
1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: Psoriatic Plaque on Elbow of Patient .............................................................................................. 14
Figure 2: The Three Layers of the Skin and Associated Structures ................................................................ 16
Figure 3: Healthy Skin Versus Psoriatic Skin ................................................................................................. 17
Figure 4: Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage Pipeline Agents in Psoriasis, 2012–2022 ........................... 35
Secukinumab (Psoriasis) - Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022 10 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
SECUKINUMAB (PSORIASIS) - FORECAST AND MARKET ANALYSIS TO 2022
Introduction
2 Introduction
2.1 Catalyst
The psoriasis market is currently very dynamic, with novel therapies awaiting approval, such as:
Novartis’ interleukin-17 (IL-17) inhibitor, secukinumab
Merck’s interleukin-23 (IL-23) inhibitor, MK-3222
Celgene’s phosphodiesterase-4 (PDE-4) inhibitor, apremilast
These compounds will challenge the current biologics in an attempt to dislodge the stronghold of
the TNF inhibitors, if their safety and efficacy profiles are proven once they enter the market.
The impending patent cliff will allow for the emergence of biosimilars to all the marketed brands.
Patent expiries begin in 2014 for the current market leaders, such as:
Johnson & Johnson’s Remicade (infliximab)
AbbVie’s (Abbott’s pharmaceutical division) Humira (adalimumab)
Amgen’s Enbrel (etanercept)
Johnson & Johnson’s Stelara (ustekinumab)
The drivers for market growth will also include affordable treatments throughout the world, as well
as the push for long-term drug efficacy. India and China will also contribute to market growth as
their populations obtain increasing access to PsO pharmacotherapy, but we expect slow growth,
particularly in India. The challenges will be the crowded marketplace, comprising a highly-
diversified field of therapies, with individual drugs struggling to distinguish themselves.
2.2 Related Reports
GlobalData (2013). Psoriasis – US Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022, May 2013,
GDHC1106CFR.
GlobalData (2013). Psoriasis – France Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022, May 2013,
GDHC1107CFR.
The drivers for market growth will also include affordable treatments throughout the world, as well as the push for long-term drug efficacy. India and China will also contribute to market growth as their populations obtain increasing access to Psoriasis (PsO) pharmacotherapy, but we expect slow growth, particularly in India. The challenges will be the crowded marketplace, comprising a highly-diversified field of therapies, with individual drugs struggling to distinguish themselves
Secukinumab (Psoriasis) - Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022 11 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
SECUKINUMAB (PSORIASIS) - FORECAST AND MARKET ANALYSIS TO 2022
Introduction
GlobalData (2013). Psoriasis – Germany Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022, May
2013, GDHC1108CFR.
GlobalData (2013). Psoriasis – Italy Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022, May 2013,
GDHC1109CFR.
GlobalData (2013). Psoriasis – Spain Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022, May 2013,
GDHC1110CFR.
GlobalData (2013). Psoriasis – United Kingdom Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022,
May 2013, GDHC1111CFR.
GlobalData (2013). Psoriasis – Japan Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022, May 2013,
GDHC1112CFR.
GlobalData (2013). Psoriasis – China Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022, May 2013,
GDHC1113CFR.
GlobalData (2013). Psoriasis – India Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022, May 2013,
GDHC1114CFR.
GlobalData (2013). Brodalumab (Psoriasis) –Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022, May 2013,
GDHC1170DFR.
GlobalData (2013). Ixekizumab (Psoriasis) –Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022, May 2013,
GDHC1172DFR.
GlobalData (2013). tildrakizumab (Psoriasis) –Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022, May
2013, GDHC1173DFR.
GlobalData (2013). Xeljanz (Psoriasis) –Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022, May 2013,
GDHC1174DFR.
GlobalData (2013). Apremilast (Psoriasis) –Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022, May 2013,
GDHC1175DFR.
GlobalData (2013). Alzumab (Psoriasis) –Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022, May 2013,
GDHC1176DFR.
Secukinumab (Psoriasis) - Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022 12 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
SECUKINUMAB (PSORIASIS) - FORECAST AND MARKET ANALYSIS TO 2022
Introduction
GlobalData (2013). Enbrel (Psoriasis) –Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022, May 2013,
GDHC1177DFR.
GlobalData (2013). Humira (Psoriasis) –Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022, May 2013,
GDHC1178DFR.
GlobalData (2013). Remicade (Psoriasis) –Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022, May 2013,
GDHC1179DFR.
GlobalData (2013). Stelara (Psoriasis) –Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022, May 2013,
GDHC1180DFR.
GlobalData (2013). Psoriasis – Current and Future Players. May 2013, GDHC1015FPR.
Secukinumab (Psoriasis) - Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022 56 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
SECUKINUMAB (PSORIASIS) - FORECAST AND MARKET ANALYSIS TO 2022
Appendix
9.8 About GlobalData
GlobalData is a leading global provider of business intelligence in the healthcare industry.
GlobalData provides its clients with up-to-date information and analysis on the latest developments
in drug research, disease analysis, and clinical research and development. Our integrated business
intelligence solutions include a range of interactive online databases, analytical tools, reports, and
forecasts. Our analysis is supported by a 24/7 client support and analyst team.
GlobalData has offices in New York, Boston, London, India, and Singapore.
9.9 Disclaimer
All Rights Reserved.
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any
form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior
permission of the publisher, GlobalData.
Top Related