Rosen Consulting Group
EmploymentCalifornia
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Million
Rosen Consulting Group
EmploymentOakland MSA
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Thousand
Rosen Consulting Group
EmploymentSan Francisco MSA
850
875
900
925
950
975
1000
1025
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Thousand
Rosen Consulting Group
EmploymentOrange County MSA
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Thousand
Rosen Consulting Group
EmploymentLos Angeles MSA
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.2
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Million
Rosen Consulting Group
EmploymentSan Jose MSA
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Thousand
Rosen Consulting Group
California MSA EmploymentRanked by Percent Change in Jobs
Rank Metropolitan Area Nov-97 Nov-98 Absolute
Change PercentChange
1 Riverside 855.3 897.0 41.6 4.9%
2 Ventura 245.6 255.1 9.5 3.9%
3 Vallejo 153.3 159.1 5.8 3.8%
4 Orange County 1249.7 1296.6 46.9 3.8%
5 Salinas 119.0 122.8 3.8 3.2%
6 Modesto 136.4 140.3 3.9 2.9%
7 Santa Rosa 166.4 170.9 4.5 2.7%
8 San Diego 1064.8 1092.4 27.6 2.6%
9 Oakland 962.3 987.1 24.9 2.6%
10 Los Angeles 3907.1 3998.3 91.3 2.3%
Rosen Consulting Group
California MSA EmploymentRanked by Percent Change in Jobs
Rank Metropolitan Area Nov-97 Nov-98 Absolute
Change PercentChange
11 Stockton 169.4 173.3 4.0 2.3%
12 Sacramento 630.6 645.2 14.7 2.3%
13 Santa Barbara 152.1 155.6 3.5 2.3%
14 San Francisco 996.5 1015.5 19.0 1.9%
15 Fresno 278.5 282.9 4.5 1.6%
16 San Jose 946.8 956.6 9.8 1.0%
17 Bakersfield 181.2 182.4 1.3 0.7%
Rosen Consulting Group
Single Family Housing Starts
813
1151
1309
1132
888892
1162
14511433
1194
852
705663
106810841072
11791146
1081
1003
894840
1030
11261192
1076
11611134
1265
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
Units (000)
Rosen Consulting Group
California Single Family Permits
71
113
124
103
76
90
140
175
143
127
87
6051
103
113114
147
136
162163
104
74 7670
7869
74
8493
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
Units (000)
Rosen Consulting Group
Existing Single Family Home Sales
1612
2018225223342272
2476
3064
3650
39863827
2973
2419
1990
27192868
32143474343635133346
32113220
3520
38023946
3802
40874215
4770
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
Units (000)
Rosen Consulting Group
Existing Single Family Home SalesCalifornia
266
361
426405401
455
559573
605587
465
336
234
343
382405
488512
562539
453425428435
483
425
506
555
631
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
Units (000)
Rosen Consulting Group
Housing Affordability
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
% Able to Afford Median-Priced Home
Rosen Consulting Group
California Housing Affordability
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
% Able to Afford Median-Priced Home
Rosen Consulting Group
Residential Mortgage RatesFixed and Adjustable
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
FRM
ARM
Rosen Consulting Group
Existing Median Home Price Appreciation
7.78.2
10.710.3
7.9
12.6
13.514.4
11.7
6.8
2.1
3.73.0
4.3
6.4 6.6
4.3 4.3
2.6
5.0
3.43.0 2.8 2.8
4.7 5.0 4.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
Annual % Change
Rosen Consulting Group
Existing Median Home Price AppreciationCalifornia
7.29.210.0
20.2
16.9
28.1
13.8
18.718.3
8.2
3.82.3
-0.1
4.9
11.5
6.3
18.416.6
-1.2
3.8
-1.6
-4.6
-1.7-3.7
-0.6
5.0
8.2
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
Annual % Change
Rosen Consulting Group
Output GrowthWestern Europe
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Annual Growth
Rosen Consulting Group
Commodities PricesOil, 1996-1998
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
US$ / Barrel Brent Crude
Rosen Consulting Group
World Economic OutlookRisks and Opportunities
• Asian Financial, Economic and Social Crises
• Asian Crises’ Effect on Other Regions
• Slow Pace of Banking Reform in Japan
• The Introduction of European Monetary Union
• Threat of Deflation - Worldwide Overcapacity
• Threat of Protectionism and Capital Controls
Rosen Consulting Group
Exchange Rates1995 - 1998
-90%-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%
0%10%
Cumulative Change vs. USD
Rosen Consulting Group
Exchange RatesVolatility, 1995 - 1998
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Annualized Standard Deviation
Rosen Consulting Group
Country Risk IndexTotal Score
9.8 9.79.2 9.0 8.9
3.4 3.1 2.92.4
1.1
0
2
4
6
8
10
10=Best, 0=Worst
Rosen Consulting Group
Country Return IndexTotal Score
8.1 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.46.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
10=Best, 0=Worst
Rosen Consulting Group
Country Return IndexTotal Score, 1998-1999
6.8
4.8 4.84.2 3.8 3.7 3.4
2.6 2.51.8
0.00
2
4
6
8
10
10=Best, 0=Worst
Rosen Consulting Group
Risk and ReturnCountry Index Comparison
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0246810
Return Index
Risk Index
Netherlands
United States Sweden
Italy
Spain
United Kingdom
Singapore
Hong Kong
Poland
ChinaArgentina
Czech Republic
BrazilTurkey
Thailand
Indonesia
Japan
Finland
Rosen Consulting Group
Real Estate Cycle
Overshooting Phase
AbsorptionPhase
DeclinePhase
GrowthPhase
Jakarta - 1:30
Lisbon/New York/San Francisco - 6:30
San Jose/Warsaw - 8:00
12
9 3
6
Bangkok/Seoul - 4:00
Tokyo - 2:30
Office
Hong Kong/Singapore - 2:00
Atlanta - 9:30
London - 8:30
Berlin - 5:00
Madrid - 5:30Paris - 6:00
Rosen Consulting Group
Central London Office MarketSupply and Demand
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5Construction
Net Absorption
Square Feet, Millions
Rosen Consulting Group
London - City SubmarketPrime Office Rents
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
GBP per Square Foot
Rosen Consulting Group
Hong KongApartment Prices (“C” Units)
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
HK $ per Square Meter
Rosen Consulting Group
Hong Kong Office MarketSupply and Demand
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800Construction
Net Absorption
Square Meters, 000s
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