Turning plans into achievement: the art of INDC implementation
Chris Dodwell Director, International Projects
COP21 Side Event, OECD Pavilion 2nd December 2015
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Ricardo Energy & Environment worldwide
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Five pillars of INDC Implementation
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Pillar 2 – Long-term mitigation strategies
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Pillar 3 – Integrated Adaptation Planning
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Pillar 4 – Climate finance frameworks
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Pillar 5 – Measurement, Reporting and Verification systems
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Pillar 1 – Political Governance & Effective Institutions
For more information
Chris DodwellDirector, International Projects & Business Development Ricardo Energy & Environment 30 Eastbourne TerraceLondonM: +44 7435 751 778
Stephen M King’uyuNational Climate Change Secretariat
Ministry of Environment & Natural Resources [email protected]/[email protected]
Implementing the Paris ClimateAgreement: Kenya’s Experience
Ricardo-AEA Side EventEU Pavilion - Le Bourget, Paris
02 Dec 2015
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v1. Introduction: Kenya’s INDC
• Kenya was among the first African Parties to submit an INDC to the UNFCCC Secretariat.
• The INDC responds to Kenya's unique national circumstances:– More than 80% of the country’s landmass is ASAL.– Highly vulnerable to climate change - Increased frequency and
intensity of extreme climate events.– Impacts already being experienced in different sectors.– Droughts and floods which cause economic losses estimated at 3% of
the country’s GDP; etc.
02Dec201512
Kenya’s INDC contains both mitigation and adaptation components:• In line with Decision 1/CP.20.• Highlighting Kenya's deliberate resolve to address adaptation and
mitigation on equal footing.
SMK/MENR© 2015
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v1. Kenya’s INDC (2)The INDC: Is in line with Vision2030, Kenya’s blueprint for development. Is anchored on the Constitution, (draft) National Climate
Change Framework Policy and Bill (2014). Builds on the foundation laid in the development of the
NCCAP 2013-2017 and NAP – coordination/MRV. Recognises that:
Every stakeholder has a role in its implementation. Individual and corporate action - at all levels is required to address
climate change. All sectors are vulnerable – strategic sector adaptation actions.
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v2. Stakeholders
INDC
Mwananchi
PrivateSector
AcademiaGovernme
nt
Media
CSOs
Development
Partners
02Dec201514
Important to include every imaginable stakeholder!
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2. NCCAP Components & output streams
02Dec2015
1. Low Carbon Climate Resilient Development Pathway
2. Enabling Policy and Regulatory Framework
3. ADAPTATION 4. MITIGATION
9. C
oord
inat
ion
& M
anag
emen
t
5. National Technology ActionPlan
6. National Performance &
Benefit Measurement
7. Knowledge Management &
Capacity Development
8. Finance ENABLERS
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v
vCoordination
02Dec201516
National Government Sectoral Agencies (MDAs)
Mainstreaming at National level
County Governments
County Gov. Sectoral Agencies (Mainstreaming at
County level)
County Assemblies
MAINSTREAMING OF CLIMATE CHANGE Council of Governors
NEMAMonitor & Enforce
Compliance
NCCC(Chair = President)To provide overarching national climate
change coordination mechanism
ParliamentEnabling
Legislation
Climate Change Directorate• Principal government agency on national climate
change actions and operational coordination• To serve as the Secretariat to NCCC
Ministry (Climate Change Affairs)CS = Secretary to NCCC
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17 02Dec2015
Thank you!
SMK/MENR© 2015
Intended Nationally Determined Contribution Bangladesh
Dr. Kamal Uddin Ahmed Secretary
Ministry of Environment and Forests
Bangladesh Context • Bangladesh is a highly climate vulnerable country and
expose to severe climate threats.• The costs of climate change could amount to an annual
loss of 2% of GDP by 2050 and 9.4% of GDP by 2100.• The future costs of adapting to climate change will be
much higher than they are today• Bangladesh accounts for only 0.35% of global
emissions• With this insignificant CO2 emission Bangladesh wants
to play its part in the global collective action
20112012
20132014
20152016
20172018
20192020
20212022
20232024
20252026
20272028
20292030
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
CO2 EMISSIONS PER CAPITA PROJECTIONS
Bangladesh Developing Countries Average
Year
Tons
of C
O2
per c
apita
Nationally-driven process
20122013
20142015
20162017
20182019
20202021
20222023
20242025
20262027
20282029
20300
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
GNI PER CAPITA PROJECTIONS
Bangladesh - GNI/capita (WB) Middle Income Threshold (GoB)
Year
GNI p
er C
apita
(cur
rent
US$
)
Middle-income country status by 2021(Prospective Plan)
Stay below average per capita emission of Developing Countries
(PM Statement in New York)
Source: Projections from World Bank Databank Source: Projections from World Bank Databank
Bangladesh INDC
• INDC builds on existing strategies and programmes e.g. BCCSAP, Power Sector Master Plan, National Sustainable Development Strategy, and forthcoming NAP
• Bangladesh considered both Mitigation and Adaptation in its INDC
• Adaptation- as urgent and immediate action to address adverse impacts of climate change
• Mitigation- emission reduction of CO2 to achieve 1.5 degree or well below 2°C global goal of temperature rise by 2100.
1. National context
2. Mitigation
3. Adaptation
4. INDC implementation
5. Support for INDC
implementation
The structure of the INDC
Under ‘business-as-usual’, GHG emissions set to increase by 118% by 2030 from 2015 levels
2. Mitigation – BAU
Power
Transport
Industry (
energy)
Households
Commercial
Agricultu
re (energy)
Waste
Agricultu
re (non-energy)
Industry (
non-energy)
F-gases
0
20
40
60
80
100
120GHG Emissions (MtCO2e) in 2015 and 2030
2015 2030 BAU
MODELLED GHG EMISSIONS TO 2030 – BUSINESS AS USUAL
• Quantified contribution only covers power, transport and industry sectors
• Unconditional contribution = 5% below BAU for those sectors (12 MtCO2e by 2030)
• Conditional contribution = 15% below BAU for those sectors (36 MtCO2e by 2030 )
Mitigation
MODELLED GHG EMISSIONS TO 2030 – CONSIDERED MITIGATION
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
0
50
100
150
200
250
GHG emissions (MtCO2e) to 2030 in Power, Transport, Industry (Energy Demand)
Conditional Contribution Unconditional ContributionBAU Historic trends
15%5%
Estimated costs of key mitigation measuresMitigation measure Estimated investment
required (billion USD, 2011-2030)
Switching to 100% super-critical coal power generation 16.50Developing utility-scale solar energy 1.30Scaling up wind energy .60Repowering steam turbine with CCGT .63Expanding the Solar Homes Programme 1.20Other solar Solar Irrigations Pumps .60
Solar Mini-grids .25Solar Nano-grids .27Pico-solar .10
Scaling up biomass production from sugar .20Building an Elevated Express Highways in Dhaka for decongestion of the main urban traffic arteries
2.65
Dhaka mass rapid transit system 2.70
Adaptation
• The primary goal for adaptation is to protect the population, enhance their adaptive capacity and livelihood options, and to protect the overall development of the country in its stride for economic progress and wellbeing of the people.
• Over the last three decades, the Government of Bangladesh has invested over $10 billion (at constant 2007 prices) to make the country more climate resilient and less vulnerable to natural disasters.
Estimated costs of key adaptation measures
Adaptation measure Estimated investment required (billion USD, 2015-2030)
Food security and livelihood and health protection (incl. water security)
8
Comprehensive disaster management 10Salinity intrusion and coastal protection 3River flood and erosion protection 6Building climate resilient infrastructure 5Rural electrification 3Urban resilience 3Ecosystem based adaptation (incl. forestry co-management)
2.5
Community based conservation of wetlands and coastal areas
1
Policy and institutional capacity building 0.5
Next Steps: INDC Implementation
• The submission of the INDCs should be seen as a first step, rather than a final one. It is envisaged that INDCs will be reviewed and updated on a regular basis
• In Bangladesh, INDC implementation will be taken forward by existing governance arrangements of the government of Bangladesh.
INDC Implementation Implementation of INDC will start with the
following key tasks • Carrying out a review of Bangladesh’s current
climate finance landscape and support needs and the international funding landscape
• Produce recommendations on an appropriate climate finance strategy for Bangladesh.
• Appropriate strategy for both mitigation and adaptation technology
INDC Implementation ……
• Listing potential mitigation interventions that could be studied in more detail and developed into NAMAs
• Carrying out a gap analysis of existing data sharing and reporting structures and processes as well as the appropriate form and structure of a national MRV system.
• Set out a clear roadmap and timetable for actions across the key elements of INDC implementation
Thank you
Lebanon’s INDC & MRV Considerations
Vahakn Kabakian Climate Change Portfolio Manager
December 2, 2015 OECD Workspace (Hall 3, Room 7)
Le Bourget, Paris, France
Lebanon: current situation
INC submission – 1999SNC submission – 2011BUR submission – expected Dec 2014TNC submission – expected Dec 2016But also now with INDC
Structure of Lebanon‘s INDC
1. Introduction2. National Circumstances3. Adaptation4. Mitigation5. Fair and ambitious6. Implementation
Mitigation Targets
Unconditional
Target
A reduction of 15% compared to the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario in 2030.
15% of the power and heat demand in 2030 is generated by renewable energy sources
A 3% reduction in power demand through energy-efficiency measures in 2030 compared to the demand under the Business-As-Usual scenario
Conditional Target
A reduction of 30% compared to the BAU scenario in 2030.
20% of the power and heat demand in 2030 is covered by renewable energy sources
A 10% reduction in 2030 in power demand through energy-efficiency measures compared to the demand under the BAU scenario
Development of the mitigation targets
Mitigation potentials and targets in the INDC
BAU scenario and emission trajectories under the mitigation scenarios applying mitigation targets stated in the INDC:- Unconditional scenario: 15%
by 2030- Conditional scenario: 30%
by 2030
Transport• Unconditional:
• Share of person-kilometres driven annual using public transport remains at 36% by 2030. Actions include improving the bus system in the Greater Beirut Area
• Conditional: • Share of person-kilometres driven annual using public transport
increases to 48% by 2030. Achieved through infrastructure projects, including improving the bus system in the Greater Beirut Area, introduction of a bus rapid transit system and revitalization of the railway system.
• A share of 20% fuel efficient vehicles is to be achieved by 2030: incentivisation activities, e.g. scrappage programmes
Waste• Both scenarios: A waste
to energy plant with a capacity of 1000 t/day is operational by 2030
• Unconditional:• A recycling rate of 25%
is achieved by 2030• 51% of municipal
wastewater is treated by 2030
• Conditional:• A recycling rate of 30% is achieved by 2030• 70% of municipal wastewater is treated by 2030• The share of wastewater treatment could even be higher if
everything goes according to plan
Agriculture and Forestry• 40 million trees
programme• Unconditional: 50%
of the trees can be planted by 2030
• Conditional: 65% of the trees can be planted by 2030
• Forest Management Plan
• Forest Fire Fighting Strategy
Energy• Refurbishment, replacement
and extension of conventional power generation capacities and fuel switch to natural gas as laid down in the 2010 Policy Paper for the Electricity Sector.
• Energy efficiency measures reducing energy demand in line with the National Energy Efficiency Action Plan 2016-2020 (NEEAP)
• Unconditional: 3% energy savings compared to BAU in 2030
• Conditional: 10% energy savings compared to BAU in 2030
• Use of renewable energy (RE) sources in line with the Renewable Energy Action Plan 2016-2020 (REAP)
• 12% of power and heat demand supplied through renewable energy sources in 2020 (NEEAP)
• Unconditional: 15% supplied through RE in 2030 under the unconditional scenario
• Conditional: 20% supplied through RE in 2030 under the conditional scenario
2030 Target
s!
Challenges and Constraints
No institutional arrangements for sharing data between institutionsNo breakdown of sectoral data (energy)No involvement of private sectorAvailability of ad-hoc, scattered and conflicting data from various sources and for different purposes (population, energy consumption of generators)Mistrust in data exchangeNo existing network/channel to manage flow of information
Source of
emissions
Part of the
solution
MRV system• INDC implementation planning (e.g., MRV)• Implementation of mitigation and
adaptation actions• Regular updating of the INDC (~5 years)
Plan
Imple ment
Review
Update
MRV structure
MRV structure
MOU between the Environment and Industry Ministries
Update database of industrial establishmentsAdd production, raw material use and energy consumption data to reporting requirementsSystematically share database on a yearly basisMoI
Improved knowledge of the industrial sector in Lebanon
MoE Data needed for GHG
inventory systematically available/progress on INDC
BENEFITS
Cooperation with Environment and Finance Ministries
MoFinance – online reporting for: Value added tax Income tax declarationCategorised (industries/institutional/commercial/etc.)Represents a real opportunity on using existing system by adding few reporting requirements
MRV structure
Thank You
[email protected]/climatechange @climatechangelb
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