Report
Fairmas Hotel Report
Edition April 2016
Performance Analysis: March 2016 in some major German destinations And a preview on the next three months
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Hotel Performance & Trends
04|16
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Fairmas Hotel Reportin cooperation with Solutions Dot WG
Occ: 73%, ADR: €93, RevPar: €68March was a strong month last year, and for a long time it seemed as if the Berlin hotels would be unable to repeat that success again in 2016. The month lacked the events that had boosted performance last year. However, corporate busi-ness was very strong up to the school holidays. The good weather that accompanied Easter and the school holidays came at very short notice. On Easter Saturday, a football match at the Olympic Stadium led to improved room rates. On the other hand, the ITB was a complete success. Signifi-cant growth in occupancy, as well as very strong room rates (as compared to the same event last year) meant that March 2016 ended with a slight increase in RevPar.
Occ: +3.6%; ADR: +7.1%; RevPar: +11.0%
In March, public holidays and school
vacations were still having a negative ef-
fect on performance. In contrast, the altered holiday
schedules do mean that April is marked by more busi-
ness days. The month slowly gained in momentum
following the school holidays. The half-marathon
event led to the first increases in room rates. Medical
conventions continued to create strong demand and
will lead to healthier room rates. Berlin’s hoteliers are
looking forward to April with optimism.
Occ: -1.0%; ADR: +0.3%; RevPar: -0.7%
The preconditions for May are similar
to last year’s. There will only be one full
business week. Last year’s “Re:publica” event was
very good, although ist success only came at short
notice. The Diabetes Congress is taking place over the
Ascension weekend, which is always heavily booked
in Berlin. The Whitsun weekend and Corpus Christi
mean that good leisure-sector business can be expec-
ted. The German Football Cup Final will also bring
some high-price business. The forecasts are perhaps
too cautious.
Occ: -2.7%; ADR: -14.1%; RevPar: -16.4%
June is forecast to be significantly worse
than last year. The hotels in Berlin will be
unable to repeat last year’s outstanding results. The
Champions League final, which led to very high increa-
ses in room rates, will be very noticeable by its absence
this year. Certainly, the ILA will ensure some demand,
as indeed will the Hauptstadtkongress (Capital City
Congress). A large number of convention inquiries and
some weekends marked by high demand also offer a
little hope.
04 05 06
March 2016 – Berlin is still growing
Trend
-1,6%
+2,0%
+0,3%
Occ ADR RevPar
© Fairmas 2016
Occ: - 2.3 % ADR: + 0.9 %
RevPar: - 1.5 %
Occ: + 8.7 % ADR: + 5.8 %
RevPar: + 14.9 %
Occ: + 4.9 % ADR: - 2.8 %
RevPar: + 1.9 %
Occ: + 1.6 % ADR: + 3.4 %
RevPar: + 4.9 %
Occ: - 0.4 % ADR: + 2.3 %
RevPar: + 2.3 %
Occ: - -1,6 % ADR: + 2.0 %
RevPar: + 0.3 %
Occ: + 2.6 % ADR: - 6.5 %
RevPar: + 9.2 %
Occ: + 4.9 % ADR: + 27.4 %
RevPar: + 33.8 %
Occ: - 0.6 % ADR: + 6.2 %
RevPar: + 5.6 %
Occ: + 3.3 % ADR: + 5.4 %
RevPar: + 8.9 %
Occ: + 0.8 % ADR: + 4.2 %
RevPar: + 5.1 %
Occ: + 6.3 % ADR: + 5.5 %
RevPar: + 12.1 %
Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16
Hotel Performance & Trends
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Fairmas Hotel Reportin cooperation with Solutions Dot WG
March 2016 – Significant losses in Dusseldorf
Occ: 67%, ADR: €114, RevPar: €77March in Dusseldorf was marked by a sharp decline (Rev-Par fell by 8%). Alongside the “Prowein” and “Beauty” events, which are held every year, the IDS trade fair in Cologne was absent this year. In 2015, it had led to a great deal of overflow business for Dusseldorf. In addition, this year’s Easter school holidays were in March only, so taking up one more week of the month than in 2015.
Occ: + 21%, ADR: + 37%, RevPar: + 67%
Expectations for April in Dusseldorf are
extremely positive. Hoteliers are predic-
ting tremendous growth, with RevPar up by nearly
67 percent. It remains to be seen as to whether this
will come about. In any case, the three full business
weeks (this year the school Easter holidays fell almost
entirely in March) are ensuring great demand. The
main reason for this is the “Wire & Tube”, which takes
place every two years.
Occ: +3.8%, ADR: +18%, RevPar: +23%
May will continue to be marked by strong
growth, with RevPar up by 23%. The two
days of the DRUPA trade fair will boost room rates
and are the main reason for this increase. In addition,
the public holidays are spread out differently: Corpus
Christi falls in May this year (last year it was in June).
Hoteliers are expecting a number of extra events in
the city, including the finals of the “DSDS” TV talent
show, as well as some concerts and “Japan Day”.
Occ: +8.6%, ADR: +36%, RevPar: +48%
June is looking extremely good overall.
The main reason is the DRUPA trade fair.
Hoteliers are already reporting booked out hotels.
The three remaining business weeks have been the
subject of much interest from the corporate and
MICE sectors.
04 05 06
-9,3%
1,9%
-7,6%
Occ ADR RevPar
Trend© Fairmas 2016
Occ: - 12.7 % ADR: - 38.0 %
RevPar: - 45.9 %
Occ: - 4.5 % ADR: + 4.1 %
RevPar: - 0.6 %
Occ: - 2.5 % ADR: + 2.7 %
RevPar: + 0.3 %
Occ: + 3.5 % ADR: + 5.8 %
RevPar: + 9.3 %
Occ: - 3.6 % ADR: + 6.4 %
RevPar: + 2.5 %
Occ: - 9,3 % ADR: + 1,9 %
RevPar: - 7,6 %
Occ: + 0.2 % ADR: - 21.5 %
RevPar: - 21.5 %
Occ: + 8.2 % ADR: + 31.1 %
RevPar: + 41.9 %
Occ: + 2.8 % ADR: + 6.8 %
RevPar: + 9.9 %
Occ: + 2.7 % ADR: + 15.2 %
RevPar: + 18.3 %
Occ: - 1.3 % ADR: - 0.7 %
RevPar: - 2.0 %
Occ: + 2.4 % ADR: + 3.8 %
RevPar: + 6.3 %
Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16
Hotel Performance & Trends
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Fairmas Hotel Reportin cooperation with Solutions Dot WG
March 2016 – Further losses in Frankfurt Occ: 68%, ADR: €128, RevPar: €86March in Frankfurt was marked by a 1.3% decrease in Rev-Par. The “Light & Building” exhibition was held again this year; room rates were similar to those for the 2015 ISH trade fair. However, there were only two business weeks that could be sold for corporate and conference business because this year, the Easter holidays began a week earlier than in 2015. Last year, in contrast, there had been three whole business weeks.
Occ: + 9.4%, ADR: +9.5%, RevPar: +20%
In April, very positive developments have
been forecast in all three key figures
for Frankfurt. April is a full business month, which
will ensure major increases in ADR. Hoteliers are
expecting an overall strong demand in the meetings
segment. The MEX and the “Musikmesse“ music trade
fair will also be held this April. In previous years, the
IMEX trade event had taken place in May.
Occ: -2.5%, ADR: +6.7%, RevPar: +4.1%
May is still on course for growth, with a
RevPar increase of 4.1% expected. The
IFFA exhibition, which takes place every two years is
again being held, which is the main reason for the
upturn in room rates. However, it remains to be seen
as to whether such room rates can be upheld over the
long holiday weekends as May is packed with public
holidays. Besides that, the absence of the IMEX event
during the month will not help. Nevertheless, we will
have to wait and see.
Occ: -1.9%, ADR: -13.8%, RevPar: -15.4%
So far, forecasts for June have been extre-
mely negative. In June 2015, the Achema
trade fair was held. This event is always accompanied
by very high occupancy numbers and a very high ADR.
That is the main reason for the enormous fall in room
rates since last year. The Optatec and Texcare trade
fairs have not been able to outweigh the Achema event,
either in terms of occupancy or ADR. At the moment
though, the advanced booking situation does not yet
back this up.
04 05 06
-5,2%
4,1%
-1,3%
Occ ADR RevPar
Trend© Fairmas 2016
Occ: - 5.3 % ADR: + 4.3 %
RevPar: - 1.1 %
Occ: - 0.6 % ADR: + 5.8 %
RevPar: + 5.3 %
Occ: + 3.9 % ADR: + 11.1 %
RevPar: + 15.5 %
Occ: + 0.0 % ADR: + 0.1 %
RevPar: + 0.0 %
Occ: + 1.6 % ADR: + 4.6 %
RevPar: + 6.0 %
Occ: -5,2 % ADR: + 4.1 %
RevPar: - 1,3 %
Occ: + 4.8 % ADR: - 0.6 %
RevPar: + 4.4 %
Occ: + 13.5 % ADR: + 31.0 %
RevPar: + 48.9 %
Occ: + 2.4 % ADR: + 4.5 %
RevPar: + 6.9 %
Occ: - 0.1 % ADR: + 3.0 %
RevPar: + 3.1 %
Occ: - 3.6 % ADR: + 3.3 %
RevPar: - 0.4 %
Occ: - 3.3 % ADR: + 1.7 %
RevPar: - 1.7 %
Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16
Hotel Performance & Trends
04|16
Report
Fairmas Hotel Reportin cooperation with Solutions Dot WG
March 2016 – Hamburg below last yearOcc: 78%, ADR: €104, RevPar: €81March figures for Hamburg were down on last year’s for all three indicators. The fact that the Easter holidays fell on the last weekend of March this year (in 2015, Easter had been in early April), as well as a weak “Internorga” event, meant that the performance was lower than in 2015. The absence of the EAHP Congress (an event held at different venues, this year in Vienna) was also a major reason for the weaker result. Re-vPar fell around two percent below last year’s figure. Overall, there were far fewer days of events this March.
Occ: +2.5%, ADR: +2.8%, RevPar: +5.4%
The hotel industry in Hamburg is
expecting a much better performance
in April (RevPar: +5.4%). This positive development
is because this year, the Easter school holidays were
held in March. The “Aircraft” trade show is already
the subject of great interest and the strong demand
is generating optimism. Besides this, the MICE
segment is already reporting high levels of advance
bookings this year.
Occ: -1.5%, ADR: +1.6%, RevPar: +0.1%
May is so far looking slightly positive
(RevPar: +0.1%). This is influenced by
the many public holidays in the month; in 2016, in
addition to the First of May, Ascension Day and
Whitsun, Corpus Christi will also be in May (in 2015 it
was in June) and thus only calendar week 19 remains
a full business week, which explains the decline in
occupancy. The ADR increase will mainly be due to
demand in the transient and tourist segments.
Occ: -0.4%, ADR: +1.7%, RevPar: +1.3%
June looks positive overall. A similar
trend to last year is expected. However,
according to some hoteliers, there are still low advan-
ce bookings in the tourist and transient sectors. The
absence of the Hafengeburtstag (Harbour Birthday)
this June (in 2015 it was held in June, not in May) is
also contributing to the lower occupancy numbers.
04 05 06
-2,0%
-0,1%
-1,9%
Occ ADR RevPar
Trend© Fairmas 2016
Occ: - 1.9 % ADR: + 1.9 %
RevPar: - 0.1 %
Occ: + 3.3 % ADR: + 5.0 %
RevPar: + 8.5 %
Occ: - 1.2 % ADR: - 9.5 %
RevPar: - 10.6 %
Occ: - 0.9 % ADR: + 2.1 %
RevPar: + 1.3 %
Occ: - 2.3 % ADR: + 3.1 %
RevPar: + 0.9 %
Occ: - 2.0 % ADR: - 0.1 %
RevPar: - 1.9 %
Occ: + 0.1 % ADR: + 6.0 %
RevPar: + 6.2 %
Occ: + 1.9 % ADR: + 4.0 %
RevPar: + 6.0 %
Occ: - 5.1 % ADR: + 0.4 %
RevPar: - 4.9 %
Occ: - 2.6 % ADR: + 2.5 %
RevPar: - 0.1 %
Occ: - 0.6 % ADR: + 3.8 %
RevPar: + 3.2 %
Occ: + 1.1 % ADR: + 3.8 %
RevPar: + 4.8 %
Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16
Hotel Performance & Trends
04|16
Report
Fairmas Hotel Reportin cooperation with Solutions Dot WG
March 2016 – Significant loss in Cologne/BonnOcc: 67%, ADR: €100, RevPar: €67Last March, there were two very strong trade fairs – the IDS and the Anuga. This year there was only the Eisenwarenmes-se (ironmongery fair), which was two days shorter, and for which demand was not nearly as strong as for the other two events. Room rates were nowhere near as high. In addition, the Easter school holidays fell almost completely in March and this led to problems in terms of demand and room rates. As expected, the desire to travel was more restrained. The hotel industry did regard the early Easter as one reason. On the other hand, a certain amount of caution was expressed due to the current circumstances.
Occ: +5.3%; ADR: +1.3%; RevPar: +6.8%
April should provide significant increases
in performance. There are no public
holidays and no school vacations. Things were very dif-
ferent last year. This means that there is time available
in April for much more corporate and conference trade.
Demand is already encouragingly strong. The FIBO
event (7 to 10 April 2016), is especially important du-
ring the month and it is growing stronger from year to
year. Demand for this trade fair is reassuringly strong
and the room rate structure more than promising.
Occ: -7.8%; ADR: -11.2%; RevPar: -18.2%
There is hardly any demand for May so
far. The large number of public holidays
means that the business weeks are completely dis-
membered. Besides this, there will be hardly any major
events during the month. Last year, the Interzum trade
fair was very significant for the performance in May.
However, it will be missing this year, just like the FESPA
event. Only the “Final4” and the “Drupa” events at the
end of the month are generating a little optimism. It is
still difficult make any forecasts about these.
Occ: +5.1%; ADR: +16.8%; RevPar: +22.8%
The forecast for June is very different -
increases in all three key parameters are
expected. June will be a full business month because
the public holidays all fall in May this year. The trade
fair situation is also very promising. In line with its
four-year cycle, the Drupa event is again being held his
year, and it promises to generate very strong demand
and high room rates. The ANGA COM is also ensuring a
positive mood due to the strong demand it generates.
04 05 06
-8,9%
-19,4%
-26,6%
Occ ADR RevPar
Trend© Fairmas 2016
Occ: - 3.0 % ADR: + 7.5 %
RevPar: + 4.2 %
Occ: - 0.3 % ADR: + 3.7 %
RevPar: + 3.4 %
Occ: - 3.7 % ADR: - 6.8 %
RevPar: - 10.4 %
Occ: + 1.6 % ADR: + 4.8 %
RevPar: + 6.4 %
Occ: + 2.8 % ADR: + 4.7 %
RevPar: + 7.5 %
Occ: - 8,9 % ADR: - 19,4 %
RevPar: - 26,6 %
Occ: + 6.9 % ADR: + 6.7 %
RevPar: + 13.9 %
Occ: + 10.7 % ADR: + 11.3 %
RevPar: + 23.3 %
Occ: + 4.3 % ADR: + 10.2 %
RevPar: + 15.0 %
Occ: + 8.5 % ADR: + 30.3 %
RevPar: + 41.3 %
Occ: - 1.9 % ADR: + 4.4 %
RevPar: + 2.5 %
Occ: - 2.7 % ADR: + 1.4 %
RevPar: - 1.3 %
Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16
Hotel Performance & Trends
04|16
Report
Fairmas Hotel Reportin cooperation with Solutions Dot WG
March 2016 – Munich with many events in MarchOcc: 73%, ADR: €119, RevPar: €87March was a surprisingly strong month for the hotels in Munich. The EAU medical congress and the FAF trade fair, which takes place every three years (alternately in Cologne and Munich), had a very positive impact on occupancy and especially on ADR. Besides this, there was an international football match, as well as a Champions League game. March 2015 had to make do with hardly any events at all. In additi-on, the Easter holidays and the Easter weekend fell in March. Although they did not generate strong room rates, the occu-pancy situation was very good because of the good weather.
Occ: +13%; ADR: +77%; RevPar: +99%
The public holidays and most of the
school holidays are in March. That is
why there is time for more business weeks with good
corporate trade in April. However, the main reason for
the huge rate increases of almost 76 percent will be the
„bauma“ event, which is only held once every three years.
Things have changed remarkably since the last bauma
because there is high room availability in all categories
and on every day of this year’s event. Clearly, the pre-
sence of additional hotels is making itself felt in Munich.
Occ: -2.6%; ADR: +4.8%; RevPar: +2.1%
May is marked by a large number of
public holidays. Despite this, the forecasts
are getting better all the time. Such major events as
the Analytica and the ECE convention, as well as the
two days of the IFAT trade fair at the end of the month
all provide reasons to be optimistic. This year, the two
weeks of the Whitsun school holidays fall entirely in
May. The early Whitsun means that leisure-sector trade
will come very quickly and will, primarily, depend on
the weather. As a result, the forecasts are still cautious.
Occ: +0.1%; ADR: +4.4%; RevPar: +4.4%
June will be a full business month. Neither
public holidays nor school vacations will
get in the way of corporate business. Things were very
different last year. The hotel industry will still be bene-
fiting from the two days of the IFAT event at the start
of the month. Besides this, two lucrative trade shows
(the Automatica and Intersolar) will also be taking
place at the same time. These optimistic forecasts
thus seem entirely justified.
04 05 06
0,3%
8,5% 8,8%
Occ ADR RevPar
Trend© Fairmas 2016
Occ: - 3.2 % ADR: - 4.1 %
RevPar: - 7.2 %
Occ: + 0.9 % ADR: + 6.9 %
RevPar: + 7.8 %
Occ: - 2.1 % ADR: - 1.1 %
RevPar: - 3.1 %
Occ: - 1.0 % ADR: - 6.8 %
RevPar: - 7.9 %
Occ: - 6.4 % ADR: - 8.6 %
RevPar: - 14.3 %
Occ:+ 0.3 % ADR: + 8.5 %
RevPar: + 8.8 %
Occ: - 1.2 % ADR: + 4.0 %
RevPar: + 2.9 %
Occ: + 4.6 % ADR: + 1.8 %
RevPar: + 6.5 %
Occ: + 0.1 % ADR: + 7.9 %
RevPar: + 8.0 %
Occ: - 1.3 % ADR: + 4.5 %
RevPar: + 3.0 %
Occ: - 5.2 % ADR: + 1.9 %
RevPar: - 1.3 %
Occ: - 6.1 % ADR: - 5.8 %
RevPar: - 11.4 %
Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16
The Fairmas Hotel Report is published by Fairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH, Sachsendamm 6, 10829 Berlin, Deutschland Solutions Dot WG GmbH, Kranzer Strasse 6-7, 14199 Berlin, Deutschland
Fairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH specializes in market analyses and the development of planning and controlling software for the hotel industry. The company offers its international cliente-le a hotel benchmarking platform, as well as various software applications for the fields of budgeting, forecasting, controlling, management reporting and work process optimization.
As a strategic management consultancy, Solutions Dot WG develops individual and customized stra-tegies and solutions for companies in the hotel, catering and tourism, and provides support in imple-menting plans. Solutions dot also manages independent project implementation, is active in support management and interim management, as well as in the total quality management (TQM) sector.
The Fairmas Hotel Report is edited by: Nadine Kilian, Marketing & Communications Manager Fairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH EMayl: [email protected]
Gabriele Kiessling, Consultant und Project Management Solutions Dot WG GmbH EMayl: [email protected]
Disclaimer No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or complete-ness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, Fairmas GmbH / Solutions Dot WG do not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the informa-tion contained in this publication or for any decision based on it.
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