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Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

Renewable Energies in the MENA Region:Potential for Sustainable Energy Provision andExport to Europe

Hans Müller-Steinhagen and Franz Trieb Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center (DLR)

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSPMED-CSPMED-CSP AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP


IFEED

Project Partners

German Aerospace Center (Germany)National Energy Research Center (Jordan)University of Aden, (Yemen)University of Sana’a, (Yemen) University of Bahrain, (Bahrain)Prof. Dr. Abdelaziz Bennouna, formerly at CNR (Morocco)Intern. Forschungszentrum für Erneuerbare Energien e.V. (Germany)Kernenergien – The Solar Power Company (Germany)Nokraschy Engineering GmbH (Germany)Deutsche Gesellschaft Club of Rome (Germany)House of Water and Environment (Palestine)Center for Solar Energy Studies (Libya)Centre de Developpement des Energies Renouvelables (Morocco)University of Bremen (Germany)New Energy Algeria (Algeria)New and Renewable Energy Authority (Egypt)Hamburg Institute of International Economics (Germany)Honorat SatoguinaMASDAR (Abu Dhabi)


50 countries analysed within the MED-CSP and TRANS-CSP Studies

ScandinaviaWestern EuropeEastern EuropeSouth-Eastern EuropeWestern AsiaNorth AfricaArabian Peninsula


Parameters considered in the analyses

Annual electricity demandAnnual load curveAvailable fossile and renewable resourcesExisting power plants in 2000 and their expected lifetimeCost of fossil fuels (oriented at IEA Scenario)Maximum production growth rates of RE industriesExisting grid infrastructure100% power availabilityPeaking power demand and 25 % reserve capacitySustainability criteriaOpportunities of financingPolicies and energy economic boundary conditions


0

500

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3500

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4500

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Gro

ss E

lect

ricity

Con

sum

ptio

n TW

h/a

TurkeySpainPortugalMaltaItalyGreeceTunisiaMoroccoLibyaEgyptAlgeriaYemenUAESyriaSaudi ArabiaQatarOmanLebanonKuwaitJordanIsraelIraqIranCyprusBahrain

Scenario Closing the Gap / High Efficiency

Historical Data

First Slowdown: Efficiency Gains & Liberalisation

Second Slowdown: Demand Stabilisation

Gross electricity demand in the analysed MENA countries


Gross electricity demand in the analysed European countries SwitzerlandNorwayIcelandBosnia-HerzegowinaSerbia & MontenegroRomaniaMacedoniaBulgariaTurkeySwedenCroatiaFinlandGreeceHungarySloweniaSlowac RepublicCzech RepublicPolandItalyIrelandUnited KingdomDenmarkGermanyNetherlandsLuxembourgBelgiumAustriaFrancePortugalSpain

0

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3500

4000

4500

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Gro

ss E

lect

ricity

Con

sum

ptio

nTW

h/y

Scenario TRANS-CSPHistorical Data


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3500

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4500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

Ele

ctric

ity P

rodu

ctio

n in

TW

h/y

Deficit Old Plants

Electricity production of power plants already existing in 2000 and deficit to be covered by new plants until 2050, in the European countries analysed within TRANS-CSP


Biomass (1)

Wind (50)

Geothermal (1)

Hydropower (50)

Solar (250)

A solar power plant of thesize of Lake Nasser equals the total MiddleEast oil production

Renewable energy resources in Europe and MENA

In brackets: (max. yield in GWhel / km² /y)


Area Required to Provide the Electricity Demand of the World, EU-25 and Germany

WORLDEU-25 GER


Planta Solar 10 MW, SevilleSEGS 350 MW, California

NovatecLorca

Andasol 2 x 50 MW, Guadix

Solar ThermalPower Plants

Nevada Solar I, 64 MW

MAN/SPGAlmeria


Solar Electricity Cost of Concentrating Solar Power Plants

Source: EU-IP NEEDS (New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability

0

5

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25

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35

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45

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

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2015

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2050

Year

Sola

r Ele

ctric

ityC

ost[

ct/k

Wh]

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900

Inst

alle

dC

apac

ity[G

W]

SEGS Cost CSP Cost Spain CSP Cost Egypt Worldwide Installed CSP Capacity


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Potentials Demand 2000 Demand 2050

Elec

trici

ty in

TW

h/y

SolarGeothermalHydroWindBiomassWave/TideDesalinationMENAEurope

Economic renewable electricity potentials vs. demand in Europe and MENA

> 630000

?


Options for solar electricity transfer over 3000 km distance

Solar Power Transfer by:

Hydrogen AC / HVAC HVDC Line

Losses 75 % 45 % / 25 % 10 %

Cost very high high low

Adaptation to Consumers (Transformer)

has to be transformed to AC first

directly transformable

has to be transformed to AC first

Over Sea Transport

by tankers or pipelines

not over 30 km standard solution

Visibility Impact very low high low

Materials and Emissions

moderate moderate low

Preferred Application

eventually fuel for transport

regional and local power

long distance power transfer


Concept of a EU-MENA Renewable Energy Link Using HVDC Power Transmission Technology


Analysed Examples for EU-MENA HVDC Interconnection

3 x 5 GW x 7000 h/y = 105 TWh/y


0.800.750.670.60Capacity Factor

35045

24531

13416

425

Investment CSPBillion € HVDC

50 x 503600 x 1.0

40 x 403600 x 0.7

30 x 303600 x 0.4

15 x 153100 x 0.1

Land Area CSPkm x km HVDC

70047023060Transfer TWh/y

20 x 514 x 58 x 52 x 5Capacity GW

2050204020302020Year

Scenario for total EU-MENA HVDC interconnection 2020 – 2050 *

* All countries analysed in TRANS-CSP


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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Year

Fres

hwat

er D

efic

it [b

illio

n m

³/y]

BahrainYemenUAESaudi ArabiaQatarKuwaitOmanIranIraqSyriaLebanonJordanIsraelPalestineEgypt LibyaTunisiaAlgeriaMorocco

Expected Water Deficits by Country


MED: Multi-Effect-Distillation; RO: Reverse Osmosis Membrane Desalination

MED

Solar Field Storage

PowerPlant

Water Power

fuelsolarheat

heat

Combined Heat & Power

RO

Solar Field Storage

PowerPlant

Water Power

fuelsolarheat

Power Only

Solar Field Storage

MED

fuel

solarheat

Water Power

grid

Heat Only

Concentrating Solar Thermal Power for Seawater Desalination (Options)


0.0

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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Cos

t of W

ater

[€/m

³]

CoW Solar CoW Fossil CoW Mix

Projected cost of water (CoW) from reverse osmosis plants using conventionally generated power or solar electricity


Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Plants combined with Sea Water Desalination in Coastal Desert Areas

Energy+Water+Income

=

Sustainable economic development in arid regions

(artist view created withGoogle Earth)

HVDC Link

AC Grid


2000

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2050

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Pow

er D

eman

d an

d Su

pply

[TW

h/y]

Year

Old Plants MENA CSP Export CSP Desalination CSP MENANew Plants MENA Total Demand MENA Total Demand EU

Electricity and fresh water provision in MENA


Within 15 years, a well balanced electricity mix may lead to less expensive electricity than business as usual. Domestic sources reduce the import of fuels.

Solar electricity from concentrating solar power stations in MENA can provide firm capacity for base load, intermediate and peaking power.

The most efficient and economic way to transfer electricity from MENA to Europe is via high voltage direct current transmission lines, adding about 1.5-2 cents/kWh to the local generating cost.

By 2050, 700 TWh/y solar electricity could be imported from 20 locations in MENA at a cost of 5 c/kWh, providing about 15 % of European electricitydemand.

To establish and maintain such a trans-national HVDC electricity grid, strong political support will be required.

Conclusions


for more information look at

www.dlr.de/tt/med-cspwww.dlr.de/tt/trans-cspwww.dlr.de/tt/aqua-csp