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Religare Morning Digest
January 25, 2017
Nifty Outlook
VWAP (Expiry till date) Max OI (Call) Max OI (Put)
NIFTY 8260 8500 8000
Nifty made a firm start and settled with decent gains, thanks to positive domestic cues and supportive global markets. Upbeat Asian markets and strengthening of rupee helped markets move up. In the latter half, short covering in index majors provided the extra push and helped the index to close around the day's high.
It's going to be a volatile session tomorrow due to F&O expiry and a run up to the Union Budget.
Amidst all, our view is positive on markets but we suggest taking precautionary measures like hedging your leveraged trades and maintaining a balanced trading portfolio. Risk takers can consider a bullish view on markets, specially in auto and private banks.
Sectors to watch
Sector Name Outlook
ENERGY STABLE
METALS STABLE
MEDIA STABLE
News
Religare Super Ideas**
FII & DII Cash Segment (Rs. in Cr.) Trade Stats
Category Amt. MTD YTD
FII -289 -2540 12486
DII 520 2646 32147
NO OF CON-
TRACTS
TURNOVER IN CR
IDXFUTS 405505 27010
IDXOPT 5975596 404991
STKFUTS 1478974 97636
Derivative Ideas **
HCL Technologies reported a 2.3% QoQ growth in Net Profit to Rs. 2,062 Cr in Q3 against Rs. 2,015.6 Cr in Q2. Rupee revenue rose by 2.6% to Rs. 11,814.2 Cr against Rs. 11,519.2 Cr on a sequential basis. The company expects its full year dollar revenue guidance between 10-12% while maintaining their EBIT margin guidance of 19.5-20.5%.
HDFC Bank reported a 15.1% increase in Net Profit to Rs. 3,865.3 Cr as against Rs. 3,356.8 Cr in the corresponding quarter last year. NII increased 17.5% to Rs. 8,309.3 Cr, as against Rs. 7,068.5 Cr in the corresponding period last year. On the asset quality front, Gross NPAs stood at 1.05% against 1.02% in the previous quarter. Net NPAs stood at 0.32% against 0.3% previously.
TVS Motors reported a 10.4% increase in Net Profit to Rs. 132.7 Cr as against Rs. 120.2 Cr in the corresponding quarter last year. Total Revenue from operations increased by 2.8% to Rs. 3,239.6 Cr against Rs. 3,151.1 Cr previously. In Q3FY17, the overall two-wheeler sales of TVS Motor grew by 4% to 7 Lakh units as against 6.8 Lakh units in the corresponding quarter last year. Shares closed up 5.1%.
*FII & DII data as on 23rd January 2017
Scrip Buy/Sell CMP Initiation
Range SL* Target
PETRONET BUY 371.60 370-374 362 400
ONGC BUY 201.60 201-203 196 218
**Please note that the given technical and derivative recommendations are
"valid for taking position" only on recommended date and in the given range.
*Please note - Stoploss is on closing basis for delivery recommendation and intraday basis for futures recommendation.
Instrument B/S Lot INITIATION
RANGE SL
TAR-GET
MOTHERSUMI
FEB BUY 2500 330-332 324 350
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Religare Morning Digest
January 25, 2017
Religare Super Ideas
Investment Pick - Sutlej Textiles and Industries Limited
Sutlej Textiles Industries Ltd. (STIL) is India's largest spun dyed yarn manufacturer and a leading textile player with presence across value chain from Yarn to
Home Textile. With a total installed capacity of 3.78 lacs spindles of Yarn and 8.4 mn metres of Home Textiles, STIL's state-of-the-art manufacturing facilities are located at Rajasthan, J&K, HP and Gujarat.
i) Leadership, diversified offerings, strong clientele and steady capacity additions places STIL in a comfortable position to exploit the available opportunities in
the Indian Textile sector, ii) Revenues are likely to grow by 6.6% CAGR over FY16-19E, led by capacity expansion and demand uptick, iii) Improved mix and operating leverage should result in healthy EBIDTA margin gains.
Scrip CMP Target Duration Recommendation Price
SUTLEJTEX 827.10 1,032 9-12 Months 812
MOTHERSUMI added around 40% of open interest
as fresh long positions. It has rolled 48% into next
contract so far. On charts, it is trading on verge of
resistance breakout from the congestion zone of
last four months or so. We suggest buying Feb
futures as per levels given below.
Strategy: BUY MOTHERSUMI FEB FUTS BETWEEN
330-332, SL 324, TARGET 350.
Derivative Ideas
Petronet LNG Limited (PETRONET) Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited
(ONGC)
From past two weeks, PETRONET is consolidating
just above its 100 EMA support, which is a positive
development. And, is also set for fresh breakout
from “Triangle” pattern on weekly chart. All this
goes to show bullish bias is here to last.
ONGC is in long-term up trend, firmly trading near
its 52-week high. It is among the few large-cap
stocks which were not impacted by the
demonetization of currency notes and kept their
overall bullish trend intact. At current juncture, it is
set for fresh breakout on daily chart. Hence, we
recommend buying in the mentioned range.
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Religare Morning Digest
January 25, 2017
Religare Investment Calls
Name of the Company Reco Date Reco Price Target Price Upside % Previous day Closing Price
Tech Mahindra 7-Aug-15 534 600 12.4% 469.9
Kotak Mahindra Bank 19-Aug-15 688 900 30.8% 743.4
Glenmark Pharma 10-Sep-15 1,017 1,370 34.7% 874.8
Dabur India 10-Sep-15 275 325 18.1% 277.3
HUL 10-Sep-15 803 1,050 30.8% 860.4
Bajaj Corp 3-Nov-15 416 500 20.3% 393.2
Britannia Inds 23-Dec-15 2,896 3,600 24.3% 3,148.4
Nandan Denim 5-Jan-16 150 183 22.0% 120.0
Atul Auto 22-Mar-16 506 580 14.6% 431.6
Century Plyboards 5-Jul-16 207 271 30.9% 180.8
Greenply Industries 5-Jul-16 248 322 29.8% 255.0
Talwalkars Better Valkue Fitness 22-Aug-16 252 328 30.2% 228.7
Tv Today Network 29-Aug-16 300 388 29.3% 272.3
Jamna Auto 2-Sep-16 217 272 25.3% 192.7
SML Isuzu 26-Sep-16 1,300 1,560 20.0% 1,194.7
Swaraj Engines Ltd. 3-Oct-16 1,184 1,535 29.6% 1,370.2
Cigniti Technologies Ltd. 5-Oct-16 419 538 28.3% 468.6
Arman Financial Services 14-Oct-16 260 338 30.0% 182.3
Garware Wall Ropes Ltd. 23-Nov-16 567 686 21.0% 620.8
Indo Count Industries Ltd. 30-Nov-16 155 207 33.5% 174.9
VIP Industries Ltd. 30-Nov-16 118 166 41.0% 122.5
LIC Housing Finance 30-Nov-16 544 700 29.0% 526.4
Manpasand Beverages 30-Nov-16 626 854 36.4% 621.5
Zee Entertainment Enterprises 30-Nov-16 457 592 29.7% 479.4
Minda Corporation 06-Dec-16 95 117 23.2% 92.9
Credit Analysis and Research 23-Dec-16 1,355 1,694 25.0% 1,429.1
Fiem Industries 26-Dec-16 1,089 1,315 20.8% 1,105.8
Castrol India 26-Dec-16 358 483 34.9% 402.0
Wonderla Holidays 26-Dec-16 332 430 29.5% 370.4
Jain Irrigation Systems 26-Dec-16 82 104 26.8% 90.6
Sutlej Textiles 12-Jan-17 812 1,032 27.1% 827.1
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Religare Morning Digest
January 25, 2017
Result Calendar — January 2017
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
22 23
3I INFOTECH LTD.
ASHOKA BUILDCON LTD.
ASIAN PAINTS LTD.
CHENNAI PETROLEUM CORPORATION LTD.
GIC HOUSING FINANCE LTD.
GUJARAT STATE FERTILIZ-ERS & CHEMICALS LTD.
HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD.
IDEA CELLULAR LTD.
BHARTI INFRATEL LTD.
JM FINANCIAL LTD.-$
JSW Holdings Limited
Larsen & Toubro Infotech Ltd
MARUTI SECURITIES LTD.
NOCIL LTD.
POWER FINANCE CORPO-RATION LTD.
TATA COMMUNICATIONS LTD.
24
AJANTA PHARMA LTD.
APTECH LTD.
Bharat Financial Inclusion Ltd
BHARTI AIRTEL LTD.
BIOCON LTD.
Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals Ltd
GREENPLY INDUSTRIES LTD.
HCL TECHNOLOGIES LTD.
HDFC Bank Ltd
Heritage Foods Limited
HT MEDIA LTD.
IDBI BANK LTD.
INDIAN OVERSEAS BANK
KAJARIA CERAMICS LTD.
KARNATAKA BANK LTD.
L&T FINANCE HOLDINGS LTD.
MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA FINANCIAL SERVICES LTD.
STATE BANK OF MYSORE
NILKAMAL LTD.
PNB Housing Finance Ltd
SOMANY CERAMICS LTD.
SWARAJ ENGINES LTD.
TVS MOTOR COMPANY LTD.
WOCKHARDT LTD.
ZEE ENTERTAINMENT ENTER-PRISES LTD.
25
ALEMBIC PHARMACEUTICALS LTD.
ARVIND LTD.
ASHOK LEYLAND LTD.
ADITYA BIRLA MONEY LTD.-$
BLUE STAR LTD.
Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company Ltd
COROMANDEL INTERNATIONAL LTD.
EVEREST INDUSTRIES LTD.
EXIDE INDUSTRIES LTD.
INDIABULLS REAL ESTATE LTD.
IDFC Bank Ltd
INDIAN BANK
KARUR VYSYA BANK LTD.
KIRLOSKAR OIL ENGINES LTD.
KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK LTD.
MARUTI SUZUKI INDIA LTD.
RAYMOND LTD.
SUPREME INDUSTRIES LTD.
TATA ELXSI LTD.
UPL Limited
VRL Logistics Ltd
WIPRO LTD.
26 27
BHARAT ELECTRONICS LTD.
BINANI INDUSTRIES LTD.
COLGATE-PALMOLIVE (INDIA) LTD.
COROMANDEL ENGINEERING COMPANY LTD.
EVEREADY INDUSTRIES INDIA LTD.
INDIA CEMENTS LTD.
ITC LTD.
JUST DIAL LTD.
SUN PHARMA ADVANCED RE-SEARCH COMPANY LTD.
TATA COFFEE LTD.
28
LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD.
Nath Bio-Genes (India) Ltd
ORIENT BELL LIMITED-$
OSWAL YARNS LTD.
Polyspin Exports Ltd
PRATIK PANELS LTD.
SHRENUJ & CO.LTD.
SIYARAM SILK MILLS LTD.-$
SARDA PROTEINS LTD.
SUNFLAG IRON & STEEL CO.LTD.
TECHINDIA NIRMAN LIMITED
THIRUMALAI CHEMICALS LTD.
TITAN BIOTECH LTD.
TITAN SECURITIES LTD.
TRIVENI GLASS LTD.-$
Veljan Denison Limited
VERTEX SECURITIES LTD.
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Religare Morning Digest
January 25, 2017
Corporate Action Calendar — January 2017 (Interim Dividend)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
22 23
BAJAJ CORP LTD.
TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES LTD.
24 25
HIL LTD.
MINDTREE LTD.
TRIDENT LTD.
26 27 28
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Religare Morning Digest
January 25, 2017
Current Portfolio and Performance Summary as on 24th January’17
Stock Sector Entry Date Weight Reco price (`) CMP (`)
Bajaj Corp Consumer Goods May 13, 2016 9.5% 393 393
Magma Fincorp Financial Services June 30, 2016 8.7% 109 97
Apollo Hospitals
Enterprises Healthcare Services July 29, 2016 9.0% 1,362 1,174
Emami Consumer Goods August 3, 2016 9.1% 1,151 1,009
Castrol India Energy August 5, 2016 9.8% 425 402
Punjab National Bank Financial Services October 3, 2016 9.7% 143 131
Minda Corporation Auto Ancillaries October 10, 2016 9.4% 109 93
Pidilite Industries Chemicals November 17, 2016 10.5% 617 656
Cash 24.4%
Total Total 100%
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Religare Morning Digest
January 25, 2017
Historical Performance as on 24th January’17
Performance Matrix 1-Month 3-Month 6-Month 1-Year Since Inception
Religare Alpha 7.3% -9.8% -3.0% 13.5% 23.0%
Nifty 6.1% -2.7% -1.6% 14.0% 7.5%
Outperformance 1.1% -7.1% -1.4% -0.5% 15.5%
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Religare Morning Digest
January 25, 2017
Research Product Basket
For cash market trading
Call / Product Call Frequency No. of calls Avg open call duration % funds allocated
Intraday Calls Intraday 2 - 3 < 1 day 25%
Live / RMD Calls Daily 3 - 4 3 - 4 days 30%
Master Pick Weekly 1 1 month 15%
Religare Alpha Opportunity NA 2 - 3 months 20%
Cash NA 10%
For 1L margin*
Total Per Call
25,000 8,000
30,000 4,000
15,000 5,000
20,000 As per weightage
10,000
Intraday Calls These calls are flashed live on Ms Lync and ODIN with the purpose of squaring off positions on the same day. As a policy, we restrict our
intraday cash market calls to less than 4 calls a day. Hence, funds should be allocated accordingly to have provision to trade in all calls.
Live / RMD Calls 2 super ideas are flashed in RMD daily with a view of 3-4 days. Additionally as per market opportunity, we flash live calls during the day
(including BTST calls). 3-4 such calls are made on a daily basis which might be open for 3-4 days. Funds should be allocated keeping in mind that
there will be 7-8 such open calls daily.
Master Pick This is our weekly recommendation shortlisted on the basis of techno-funda analysis. 15% of funds is recommended to be allocated for Master
Pick considering that there will be 3 open calls. The average open duration for this call will be 1 month.
Religare Alpha This is a portfolio of 8-10 stocks which are held with a view of 2-3 months. It is recommended to allocate 20% of funds for building this portfolio
which will provide stability to the overall trading portfolio.
Cash 10% surplus cash in the portfolio should be kept for the purposes of allocating it to opportunities as and when they arrive.
For derivative market trading
Call / Product Call Frequency No. of calls Avg open call duration % funds allocated
Derivative Ideas Daily 1 - 2 1 - 3 days 40%
Live calls Intraday / Daily 1 - 2 3 - 4 days 50%
Cash NA 10%
For 1L margin*
Total Per Call
40,000 40,000
50,000 50,000
10,000
Derivative Ideas 1 derivative idea is shared in RMD daily. It can be a plain vanilla F&O buy/sell call or an option strategy. Funds should be allocated assuming 2
such calls will be open at any time. These calls are open for 3-4 days on an average.
Live Calls These calls are flashed on MS Lync and ODIN during live market hours. These calls can be intraday or with a view of 2-3 days. Funds should be
allocated considering 2 such calls will be open at any time. 3/4 times, these calls will be on Nifty / Bank Nifty only.
Cash It is recommended to hold 10% cash to capitalize on any opportunity that may arise in markets.
For every client, the advisor must allocate a specific proportion of funds for trading and investing depending on the risk taking ability and willingness of the client
and their investment goals.
The below mentioned product basket tries to address the way to deal with the trading portfolio (cash/derivative) for optimum effectiveness of research calls.
It is recommended to divide your trading funds for various types of calls and not invest the entire amount for 1 or 2 calls only.
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Religare Morning Digest
January 25, 2017
Hitesh Agrawal [email protected]
Ajay Pasari, CFA [email protected]
Ajit Mishra [email protected]
Archana Gude [email protected]
Gaurav Sharma [email protected]
Swati Saxena [email protected]
Manoj M Vayalar [email protected]
Mehernosh Khurshed Panthaki [email protected]
Siji A Philip [email protected]
Vipin Kumar [email protected]
Team Members
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Religare Morning Digest
January 25, 2017
Before you use this research report , please ensure to go through the disclosure inter-alia as required under Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014 and Research Disclaimer at the following link : http://old.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/Disclaimer_RSL.html
Specific analyst(s) specific disclosure(s) inter-alia as required under Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014 is/are as under:
Statements on ownership and material conflicts of interest , compensation– Research Analyst (RA)
[Please note that only in case of multiple RAs, if in the event answers differ inter-se between the RAs, then RA specific answer with respect to questions under F (a) to F(j) below , are given separately]
Nature of Interest ( if answer to F (a) above is Yes : ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Name(s) with Signature(s) of RA(s).
[Please note that only in case of multiple RAs and if the answers differ inter-se between the RAs, then RA specific answer with respect to questions under F (a) to F(j) above , are given below]
Copyright in this document vests exclusively with RSL. This information should not be reproduced or redistributed or passed on directly or indirectly in any form to any
other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose, without prior written permission from RSL. We do not guarantee the integrity of any emails or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person.
S. No. Statement Answer
Yes No
I/we or any of my/our relative has any financial interest in the subject company? [If answer is yes, nature of Interest is given below this table] No
I/we or any of my/our relatives, have actual/beneficial ownership of one per cent. or more securities of the subject company, at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report or date of the public appearance?
No
I/we or any of my/our relative, has any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance?
No
I/we have received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months? No
I/we have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months? No
I/we have received any compensation for brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months? No
I/we have received any compensation for products or services other than brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months? No
I/we have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report? No
I/we have served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company? No
I/we have been engaged in market making activity for the subject company? No
SS..No. Name(s) of RA.
Signtures of RA
Serial Question of question which the signing RA needs to make a separate declaration / answer
Yes No.
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