Regional Climate Simulations and Regional Climate Simulations and
Decision Making: Decision Making:
The Experience of The Experience of
PesqueclimaPesqueclima
I Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, I Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change, and Regional Climate ModelingClimate Change, and Regional Climate Modeling
São P
au
lo,
SP,
São P
au
lo,
SP,
Bra
zil, 2
0-2
3
Bra
zil, 2
0-2
3
Au
gu
st,
20
07
.A
ug
ust
, 2
00
7.
Departamento de GeociênciasDepartamento de GeociênciasFundação Universidade Federal de Rio GrandeFundação Universidade Federal de Rio Grande
Nisia KruscheNisia Krusche
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Regional climate simulations Regional climate simulations may aid minimize the may aid minimize the vulnerability of local vulnerability of local populations.populations.
• Fishery Fishery communitiescommunities
• Impact of climate Impact of climate variationsvariations
• RegionalRegional climate climate simulations simulations
PesqueclimPesqueclimaa
Vulnerability of Vulnerability of Fishery Communities to Fishery Communities to
Climate Variability, in the Climate Variability, in the Estuary of dos Patos LagoonEstuary of dos Patos Lagoon
I Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, I Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change, and Regional Climate ModelingClimate Change, and Regional Climate Modeling
São P
au
lo,
SP,
São P
au
lo,
SP,
Bra
zil, 2
0-2
3
Bra
zil, 2
0-2
3
Au
gu
st,
20
07
.A
ug
ust
, 2
00
7.
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Pesqueclima Pesqueclima
• Evaluate the impact of climate variability in social and economical vulnerability of communities that fish shrimp in the estuarine region of dos Patos Lagoon; • Provide climate forecasting design-ed to the needs of those com-munities, and contingency plans to climate situations that are not ade-quate to perform their economical activities.
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30 o S
LocationLocation ofof dos Patos dos Patos LagoonLagoon
Fonte: NASA
30 o S
30 o S
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Fishery Communities ofFishery Communities of dos Patos dos Patos LagoonLagoon
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Fishery Artesian Fishery Artesian Systems ofSystems of dos Patos dos Patos
LagoonLagoon
1) Exclusive skilled fishers, living in small communities and specialize in fishing in interior waters;
2) Exclusive skilled fishers, living in communities near the entrance channel and specialize in fishing in interior waters and coastal sea waters;
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Fishery Artesian Systems Fishery Artesian Systems ofof
dos Patos dos Patos LagoonLagoon3) Sporadic fishers, living in urban communities and special-ized in fishing in interior waters; 4) Exclusive skilled fishers, living in near urban centers and specialized in fishing in interior waters;5) Fishers of São Lourenço do Sul,
defeso period is in spring, while for the others it is in winter;
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Fishery Artesian Systems ofFishery Artesian Systems of dos Patos dos Patos LagoonLagoon
6)Fisher-farmer, in the rural areas sur-rounding the estuary.
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Vulnerability of Vulnerability of Fishery CommunitiesFishery Communities
Factors Fishery System
1 2 3 4 5 6
Social Cohesion Low Low Low Usual Low Low
Organization Fair Fair Fair Fine Low Low
Change in arts Higher vulnerability, due to larger fishing effort and lower agreement among fishers.
Uncertainties Higher vulnerability, due to uncertainties on the success of catches.
Adaptation Low adaptation and learning in all systems, except 4.
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Fishers use weather Fishers use weather forecasting:forecasting:
• navigation, • security, • net setting and collecting, • planning, • identify best catch.
• radio and television;• home- radio and cellular to
• other fishers, • other communities, and • Uruguayan fishers.
• Brazilian Navy.
ObtaineObtained fromd from
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Vulnerability and Vulnerability and resilience of those artisan resilience of those artisan fishery com-munities depend fishery com-munities depend strongly on their degree of strongly on their degree of organization.organization.
• Strengthen of organization; • Program to forecast shrimp catches;• Plan of alternate options in case of negative results;• Improvement on fish commerce;• Better distribution of financial resources;• Register again all fishers.
Climate
Climate
Foreca
st
Foreca
st
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Total Fishery Catch in dos Total Fishery Catch in dos Patos Lagoon, 1945-1990Patos Lagoon, 1945-1990
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995Ano
Ca
ptu
ra (
ton
)
Total artesanal
camarao
corvina
bagre
tainha
IBAMA, organized by Marcelo Vasconcellos, 2000.
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Artisan Shrimp CatchArtisan Shrimp Catch
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20000
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Ca
ptu
ra A
rte
sana
l An
ua
l de
Cam
arã
o (
ton
ela
da
s)
Tempo (anos)
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Wavelet TransformWavelet Transform
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995012345678
Pes
ca (
10
00 to
n)
Captura Artesanal de Camarão
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 19952
3
5
8
12
18
28
Tempo (anos)
Per
íod
o (a
no
s)
Espectro dos Coeficientes Reais de Ondeleta
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Energy SpectrumEnergy Spectrum
2.3 2.6 3 3.5 4 4.6 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 14 16 18 21 24 28 32 370
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2x 10
6
Período (anos)
Var
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pa
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ad
a P
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Shrimp Life CycleShrimp Life Cycle
M ESTUARY PLATAFORM
SET
Estuarine inflow and growing of shrimp fry
Reproduction of shrimps
in SCOCT
NOV
DEC
Lowconcentration of shrimps
JAN Growing
FEBGrowing F
ISH
MAR
APR Females go to the ocean
MAY Males go to the ocean
East winds and East winds and low precipitationlow precipitation
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Drainage area of dos Patos Drainage area of dos Patos LagoonLagoon
Organized by Allan de Oliveira, 2006.
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Catch and Precipitation Catch and Precipitation CorrelationsCorrelations
-62 -58 -54 -50 -46 -42-42
-38
-34
-30
-26
-22
Pre
cipi
taçã
o (m
m) Capt <= 3030 ton
Setembro
-62 -58 -54 -50 -46 -42-42
-38
-34
-30
-26
-22Capt>3030 ton
-62 -58 -54 -50 -46 -42-42
-38
-34
-30
-26
-22
Com
p. Z
onal
(m
/s)
-62 -58 -54 -50 -46 -42-42
-38
-34
-30
-26
-22
-62 -58 -54 -50 -46 -42-42
-38
-34
-30
-26
-22
Com
p. M
erid
iona
l (m
/s)
-62 -58 -54 -50 -46 -42-42
-38
-34
-30
-26
-22
-62 -58 -54 -50 -46 -42-42
-38
-34
-30
-26
-22Capt<= 3030 ton
Outubro
-1
0
1
-62 -58 -54 -50 -46 -42-42
-38
-34
-30
-26
-22Capt>3030 ton
-62 -58 -54 -50 -46 -42-42
-38
-34
-30
-26
-22
-1
0
1
-62 -58 -54 -50 -46 -42-42
-38
-34
-30
-26
-22
-62 -58 -54 -50 -46 -42-42
-38
-34
-30
-26
-22
-1
0
1
-62 -58 -54 -50 -46 -42-42
-38
-34
-30
-26
-22
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Catch and Precipitation Catch and Precipitation CorrelationsCorrelations
-62 -58 -54 -50 -46 -42-42
-38
-34
-30
-26
-22
Pre
cip
itaca
o (
mm
)
Capt <= 3030 tonJaneiro
-62 -58 -54 -50 -46 -42-42
-38
-34
-30
-26
-22Capt>3030 ton
-62 -58 -54 -50 -46 -42-42
-38
-34
-30
-26
-22
Co
mp
. Zo
na
l (m
/s)
-62 -58 -54 -50 -46 -42-42
-38
-34
-30
-26
-22
-62 -58 -54 -50 -46 -42-42
-38
-34
-30
-26
-22
Co
mp
. Me
rid
ion
al (
m/s
)
-62 -58 -54 -50 -46 -42-42
-38
-34
-30
-26
-22
-62 -58 -54 -50 -46 -42-42
-38
-34
-30
-26
-22Capt<= 3030 ton
Fevereiro
-1
0
1
-62 -58 -54 -50 -46 -42-42
-38
-34
-30
-26
-22Capt>3030 ton
-62 -58 -54 -50 -46 -42-42
-38
-34
-30
-26
-22
-1
0
1
-62 -58 -54 -50 -46 -42-42
-38
-34
-30
-26
-22
-62 -58 -54 -50 -46 -42-42
-38
-34
-30
-26
-22
-1
0
1
-62 -58 -54 -50 -46 -42-42
-38
-34
-30
-26
-22
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D’Incao (2007) observed D’Incao (2007) observed periods with favorable periods with favorable climate conditions and low climate conditions and low shrimp production.shrimp production.
• Official registers are of low confidence.
•Factors:• biological,• oceanographic,• economical, and• climate.
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RegCM3 RegCM3 SimulationSimulation
• Horizontal resolution of 40 km;• Grell convective parameterization and Arakawa-Schubert closure.
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Topography in Topography in Extended DomainExtended Domain
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Simulation DomainSimulation Domain
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Periods of simulationPeriods of simulation
EXTREM EVENT INICIAL AND FINAL DATE M
WET
FEB 1990 1.12.1989 a 1.04.1990 JFM
JUL 1995 1.05.1995 a 1.09.1995 JJA
DEC 1997 1.12.1997 a 1.04.1998 DJF
JAN 2002 1.01.2002 a 1.04.2002 JFM
JUL 1998 1.06.1998 a 1.09.1996 JJA
DRY
MAY 1996 1.05.1996 a 1.08.1996 MJJ
SEP 1998 1.08.1998 a 1.12.1998 SON
JAN 2004 1.11.2003 a 1.02.2004 NDJ
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Wet Simulation – Summer 1998Wet Simulation – Summer 1998
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Wet Simulation – Summer 1998Wet Simulation – Summer 1998
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Comparação entre simulação do RegCM3 Comparação entre simulação do RegCM3 e análise do NCDC, subdomínio SU1, preci-e análise do NCDC, subdomínio SU1, preci-pitação média mensal M e desvio padrão pitação média mensal M e desvio padrão , em mm dia, em mm dia-1-1, e erro médio relativo BR., e erro médio relativo BR.
MRCM3 RCM3 MNCDC NCDC BR (%)
NOV 1997 12,1 4,7 7,7 1,3 57,0
DEZ 1997 11,7 4,3 7,1 1,8 64,7
JAN 1998 12,8 3,9 7,2 1,5 77,8
FEV 1998 10,1 3,1 9,6 1,8 5,2
MAR 1998 6,7 2,2 6,9 1,3 -2,9
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Comparação entre simulação do RegCM3 e Comparação entre simulação do RegCM3 e análise do NCDC, subdomínio SU2, precipitação análise do NCDC, subdomínio SU2, precipitação média mensal M e desvio padrão média mensal M e desvio padrão , em mm dia, em mm dia--
11, erro médio relativo BR e chuva em Rio , erro médio relativo BR e chuva em Rio Grande.Grande.
MRCM3 RCM3 MNCDC NCDC BR (%) RG
NOV 1997 7,8 1,5 6,5 1,5 20,0 5,8
DEZ 1997 11,7 2,2 7,9 1,6 48,1 6,6
JAN 1998 10,5 4,2 6,4 0,9 64,0 6,3
FEV 1998 6,1 2,4 7,5 2,4 18,7 3,5
MAR 1998 6,0 1,5 5,2 0,9 15,3 4,9
30
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Dry Simulation – Summer Dry Simulation – Summer 20042004
31
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32
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Extreme Events of Extreme Events of Precipitation in Rio Precipitation in Rio
GrandeGrande
• Observed precitation in Rio Grande is not always that of the drainage area in NCDC. • Spatial and temporal patterns are simulated well by RegCM3 in most events;• Mensal forecast errors often exceed ±5-30%. • Errors decrease in seasonal (3months) average, especially in SU2 region;
34
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Extreme Events of Extreme Events of Precipitation in Rio Precipitation in Rio
GrandeGrande
• Error in region SU1 for seasonal average is high, due to boundary distance.• Gas parameterization produces errors smaller or equal to Gfc ones.• The analysis should be extend to establish a better representation of cumulus convention in the southern region of Brazil.
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ResearchersNisia Krusche – DGEO-FURGDaniela C. Kalikoski – FAO, RomaRosmeri P. da Rocha – DCA-IAG-USPPedro Quevedo Neto – DGEO –FURG
TeamTeam
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gwww.pesqueclima.furgwww.pesqueclima.furg.br.br
AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements• CNPq: Ed. 019/2004, no 477124/2004-6, e Ed. 057/2005, no 502090/2005-7
• FAPERGS: Ed. PROCOREDES II 001/2005, no 05/1843.7
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