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REDI to roll
Redington India
25 January 2013
Initiating Coverage | Sector: Logistics
Siddharth Bothra ([email protected]); +91 22 3029 5127
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Redington India: REDI to roll
Page No.
Summary ........................................................................................................ 3-4
An indispensable link in IT supply chain ...................................................... 5-9
Pursuing four-pronged growth strategy .................................................. 10-14
Strategic diversifications aimed to de-risk model ................................... 15-17
Strong revenue and earnings growth outlook ........................................ 18-21
Valuation and view .................................................................................... 22-24
Company background and key risks ......................................................... 25-26
Financials and valuation ........................................................................... 27-28
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Redington IndiaCMP: INR81 TP: INR103 Buy
Bloomberg REDI IN
Equity Shares (m) 398.6
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b) 32.3/0.6
52- Week Range (INR) 94/65
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%) -11/-3/-16
25 January 2013
Initiating Coverage | Sector: Logistics
BSE SENSEX S&P CNX
19,924 6,019
REDI to rollDiversification beyond IT supply chain - a shot in the arm
Redington India (REDI) is the leading IT SCM player in India and Middle East and a strategic
partner to some of the worlds leading technology companies.
Its efforts to diversify across the supply chain industry are paying off, with non-IT segment,
as a percentage of revenues, increasing from ~5% in FY07 to ~19% in FY12. We estimate
a further increase to ~22% by FY15E.
During 1HFY13, REDIs revenue growth was muted at ~10% (2% in domestic and 19% in
international). We expect the company to benefit from 1) pent up government demand
based on implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST), 2) iPhone distribution to
boost domestic non-IT growth and has the potential to contribute ~INR24b to REDIs topline by FY14 and 3) revival in subsidiary Arenas operations.
We believe execution of REDIs strategic initiatives could allay concerns on 1) its NBFC
arm, 2) recovery in Arena and 3) asset-heavy capex plans for automatic distribution
centers (ADCs).
REDI trades at 7.5x/6.3x FY14E/FY15E EPS and EV of 6.2x/5.4x FY14E/FY15E EBITDA. We
initiate coverage with a Buy and a target price of INR103, based on intrinsic P/E of 8x its
FY15 earnings, an upside of ~27%.
An indispensable link in IT supply chain
Over the years, REDI has evolved as an end-to-end supply chain management
(SCM) solutions and strategic partner to the worlds leading technology
companies. As India has significant under-penetration in IT and consumer goods,
increasing discretionary spending would change this and lead to more spending
in IT related products and consumer durables. Company is not only the largest
and leading IT SCM player in India but also leads in international markets like
Middle East and Africa.
Pursuing successful four-pronged growth strategy
REDI is pursuing a four-pronged strategy to achieve strong growth and sustain
the competitive advantage in IT distribution industry: 1) growth in existing product
lines, 2) foray into new verticals and business lines, 3) explore new regions and
geography/inorganic acquisitions and 4) strategic initiatives. As Indias market
offers significant opportunities to IT services providers due to increasing demand,
company has scope to add new products to its existing verticals and move up the
value chain. A diversified portfolio enables it to manage vendor risks and growth
effectively. Also, REDIs global reach gives a competitive advantage, with suppliers
eyeing worldwide market penetration.
Strategic diversifications aimed to de-risk model
To leverage existing strengths in IT logistics business and broadbase its product
offerings, REDI forayed into distribution of consumer goods. Non-IT business
has grown from ~5% of overall revenues in FY07 to ~19% in FY12. Given lack of
quality third party logistics (3PL) players in India, REDI is well-placed to create a
25 January 2013
Stock performance (1 year)
Shareholding pattern (%)
As on Sep-12 Jun-12 Sep-11
Promoter 21.1 21.1 21.1
Dom. Inst 9.0 9.4 8.9
Foreign 63.3 63.3 63.4
Others 6.7 6.3 6.6
Investors are advised to refer
through disclosures made at the end
of the Research Report.
3
Valuation summary (INR b)
Y/E March 2013E 2014E 2015E
Sales 241.6 284.2 331.9EBITDA 6.9 8.3 9.8
NP 3.4 4.2 5.0
EPS (INR) 8.5 10.6 12.6
EPS Gr. (%) 16.3 23.6 19.8
BV/Sh. (INR) 40.9 49.7 60.2
RoE (%) 23.1 23.3 23.0
RoCE (%) 18.7 19.7 20.7
Payout (%) 9.6 16.6 16.7
Valuations
P/E (x) 9.3 7.5 6.3
P/BV (x) 1.9 1.6 1.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.1 6.2 5.4
Div Yield 0.9 1.9 2.3
EV/Sales (x) 0.2 0.2 0.2
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niche in this segment. We model its consumer goods business, consists of key clients
like LG, Whirlpool, Voltas, Godrej, etc, to increase from ~INR1.8b in FY12 to ~INR8.5b
by FY15E.
Initiate coverage with a Buy and target price of INR103We expect REDI to post revenue CAGR of 17% and net profit CAGR of 20% respectively
over FY12-15E. Implementation of GST would unveil and increase significant
opportunities for the company, particularly in non-IT verticals. We believe execution
of REDIs strategic initiatives could allay concerns on 1) its NBFC arm, 2) recovery in
Arena and 3) asset-heavy capex plans for ADCs. REDI trades at 7.5x/6.3x FY14E/FY15E
EPS and EV of 6.2x/5.4x FY14E/FY15E EBITDA. We initiate coverage with a Buy and a
target price of INR103, based on intrinsic P/E of 8x its FY15 earnings, an upside of
~27%.
SCM players - an indispensable link in IT supply chain
Source: GTDC Research
As compared to developed
nations, 3PL contribution
remains at a nascent stageRetail
Infrastructure
Equipment
Pharmaceuticals IT HardwareTelecom
Automotive
Chemicals and
Industrial products
LOW MEDIUM HIGH
LOW
HIGH
MEDIUM
GrowthofSector
Profitability of 3PL
Consumer
products
Current 3PL penetration High Neutral Low
3PL logistics to increase REDI present in most attractive segments
Source: KPMG Analysis
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An indispensable link in IT supply chain
Market leader in a fast growing industry
Over the years, REDI has evolved into an end-to-end supply chain management (SCM)
solutions and strategic partner to the worlds leading technology companies.
The outlook for Indian IT and telecom industry is promising, with IDC forecasting it to post
a CAGR of 10% over FY12-16, from ~USD66b in FY12 to ~USD96b by FY16. As India has
significant under-penetration in IT and consumer goods, increasing discretionary spending
would change this and lead to more spending in IT related products and consumer durables.
Company is not only the largest and leading IT SCM player in India but also leads in
international markets like Middle East and Africa.
Emerging as a complete SCM player
REDI creates value in the market by extending the reach of its technology partners,
capturing market share for resellers and suppliers, creating innovative solutions and
offering credit. It is engaged in the business of selling high-volume, low-marginproducts like laptops, servers and smart phones to consumer resellers and retailers.
REDI is not only the the largest IT distributor in India but also the leading SCM player
in the Middle East and Africa.
Over the years, REDI has evolved from a distributor to an end-to-end supply chain
management (SCM) vendor and a strategic partner to the worlds leading technology
companies. The scale of operations and business volume ensure tremendous
bargaining power with various product manufacturers and resellers. The value added
through integrated business model, vast geographic reach, efficient working capital
management, deep-rooted relationships with vendors and channel partners and
economies of scale create significant entry barriers for new players in this business.
REDI has transformed from a distributor to total SCM player
Source: Company, MOSL
Well-proven business model
The wholesale distribution model has proven to be well-suited for both manufacturers
of technology products and resellers. The large number of resellers makes it cost-
efficient for vendors to rely on wholesale distributors to serve this diverse and highly
fragmented customer base. An SCM player like REDI adds value by 1) reducing
manufacturers inventory and improving its time-to-market, 2) enhancing
manufacturers go-to-market strategies and 3) providing efficient market engine for
manufacturers.
From Distribution...
Distribution of only IT products
in India Cash and carry model
No inventory, only back-to-back
orders
Distributor of IT, Telecom &
consumer durables
Third party logistics services
Door-to-door delivery
Credit to channel partners
Channel relationshipmanagement
Management of inventory
After sales support service
... To Supply Chain Management
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Similarly, the wide spectrum of products offered by multiple vendors helps the company
achieve economies of scale and provide customers a single sourcing point. Due to many
vendors and products, resellers often cannot establish direct purchasing relationships
with them. Hence, they often rely on wholesale distributors such as REDI who can
leverage purchasing costs across multiple vendors to satisfy a significant portion oftheir product procurement, logistics, financing, marketing and technical support needs.
SCM players - an indispensable link in IT supply chain
Source: GTDC Research
Role of SCM players like REDI to be critical, going forward
Given that India has significant under-penetration in IT and consumer goods,
increasing discretionary spending could lead to more on IT and consumer related
goods. Globally, majority of the supply chain is managed by dedicated 3PL players;
currently, their share in India is ~9%, which is expected to increase sharply post the
introduction of GST. Within 3PL services, IT distribution is one of the most attractive
segments. Thus, REDI is well-placed to benefit from these emerging opportunities
and increase its value-added sales, going forward.
Source: KPMG Analysis
As compared to developed
nations, 3PL contribution
remains at a nascent stageRetail
Infrastructure
Equipment
Pharmaceuticals IT HardwareTelecom
Automotive
Chemicals and
Industrial products
LOW MEDIUM HIGH
LOW
HIGH
MEDIUM
GrowthofSector
Profitability of 3PL
Consumer
products
Current 3PL penetration High Neutral Low3PL logistics to increase REDI present in most attractive segments
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Expect value-added services to increase sharply
Source: Company, MOSL
The distributors model
The chart below shows that some distributors sell components to vendors and also
buy finished IT products from manufacturers. Certain manufacturers and distributors
sell directly to end-user businesses in addition to supplying resellers with their wares.
As there is no demarcation to distinguish one part of the supply chain from another,
a product could take multiple paths to the market. Since the industry has evolved
from a linear to non-linear marketplace, partnership and collaboration are now more
imperative. Successful manufacturers, distributors and resellers form and reform
teams and partnerships responding to market trends.
MANUFACTURER DISTRIBUTOR RESELLER END USER
Component
and Material
Suppliers
Electronic
Component
Distributors
Electronic
Contract
Manufacturers
Subsystems
andPeripherals
IT Original
Equipement
Manufacturers
(IT OBMs)
Software
IT Full-Line
Distributors
IT Specialty
Distributors
Government
Resellers
Corporate
Resellers
Direct
Marketers
VARs
Online
Resellers
Government/ Education
Fortune 1000
Businesses
Small and
Medium-sized
Businesses
Consumer
Retailers
DIRECT (%)
The distributors model
Source: Industry, MOSL
15%
4-6% 9-11%
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Leader in key markets
Domestic IT distribution industry is dominated by two players Ingram Micro and REDI
and control ~70% of the market, with a presence in similar product categories. Ingram isthe global leader in IT distribution industry with revenues of ~USD36b in FY12. However,
leading international players like Tech Data and Synnex are not present in the Indian
market. Other key players in the domestic market are Neoteric, Rashi Peripherals,
Compuage and Savex. In the Middle East and Africa market too REDI is the market
leader and has a higher share compared to the next two peers put together.
Key risks and mitigation strategies
Key business model risks Mitigation strategies
Low gross margins
- Business is characterized by narrow - Increasing value portfolio; New initiatives
gross operating margins.
- These narrow margins magnify the impact
of any change in operating results attributed
to variations in sales and operating costs
High vendor concentration
- HP accounts for ~35% of REDI 's overall sales - Broad-bas ing vendors; increas ing depth of product l ines
(20% of domestic and 44% of international)
Receivable risk
- As REDI se ll s i ts goods on cr edi t t o severa l - H is tori ca ll y bad debt , i nc ludi ng pr ov is ions , a s per cent age of sa les
fragmented re-sellers, there is has been less than 0.07%.
high receivable risk - As company has a wide portfolio, re-sellers dependence is high
High working capital intensity
- Working capital intens ity i s h igh as distr ibutors - Working capi ta l management discipl ineshave to keep inventory and sell on credit
Inventory risk
- REDI's business subjects it to the risk that - Market knowledge; forecasting ability and robust IT system
the value of inventory could be adversely - Obsolescence overcome by stock rotation policy supported by vendors
affected by suppl iers ' price reduct ions or by - Price erosion supported by vendor discounts
te chno logical ch ange s, th us affe cting Suppliers provide warranties on products that REDI distributes and
u se ful ne ss or de sir abi lit y o f p ro du ct s allow return of defective products, including those by customers
Source: MOSL
Competition and market mapping
Domestic International Consolidated
Sales INR99b INR112b INR212b
% 47% 53% 100%
-IT 79% 81%
-Non-IT 19% 16%
-Services 2% 3%
PAT INR1.8b INR1.1b INR2.9b
% 62% 38% 100%
Product range IT peripherals: PCs, PC components, IT peripherals, PCs, PC components,
UPS, net work ing product s, packa ged UPS, net work ing product s, packa ged
software, storage products, high-end software, storage products, high-end servers
servers
Non-IT: Telecom devices, consumer Non-IT: Telecom and Tablets
durables, digital printing press,
tablets and gaming consoles
Top vendors (FY12) HP -20%, RIM -18%, Microsoft - 7%, HP - 39%, Nokia - 14%, Dell - 9% andAcer/ Lenova -5% and Apple - 5%, Others 38%
Others -40%
Source: Company, MOSL
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Extensive distribution network
REDI has a strong distribution network and wide range of brands, with a presence
across 25 countries. It has ~66 warehouses in India and 27 in the Middle East and
Africa. With a view on impending introduction of GST in India, REDI is proactively
building large ADCs in key business regions to capture emerging opportunities. It hastwo ADCs at Chennai and Dubai operational since July 2009 and September 2010 and
is working on three ADCs, which would be functional soon.
REDIs domestic and global distribution network
India Middle East & Africa
Channel partners 23,337 9,857 (present in 20 countries)
Sales office 56 21
Warehouses 66 27
Service centers 70 38
Partner centers 292 18
Product range 80 plus 50 plusSource: Company, MOSL
REDI has a wide Pan India presence
Source: Company, MOSL
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A) Growth in existing product lines
REDI is likely to be a key beneficiary from the robust growth outlook of Indian IT
industry, which is forecasted to post a CAGR of 10% from ~USD66.4b in FY12 to~USD95.9b by FY16. Indias market offers significant opportunities to IT services
providers due to increasing demand.
Indian IT and Telecom industry to post a CAGR of ~10% over FY12-16E (USD b)
2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E CAGR (%)
(2012-2016)
Hardware 9.1 9.5 10.9 12.5 14.3 12.0
% of total 13.7 14.3 16.4 18.8 21.5
% Change 4.4 14.7 14.7 14.4
Software 3.5 4 4.5 5.2 6 14.4
% of total 5.3 6.0 6.8 7.8 9.0% Change 14.3 12.5 15.6 15.4
Services 9.2 10.3 11.9 13.8 16.1 15.0
% of total 13.9 15.5 17.9 20.8 24.2
% Change 12.0 15.5 16.0 16.7
Telecom 44.7 47.8 51.5 54.6 59.5 7.4
% of total 67.3 72.0 77.6 82.2 89.6
% Change 6.9 7.7 6.0 9.0
Total 66.4 71.5 78.9 86.2 95.9 9.6
% Change 7.7 10.3 9.3 11.3
Source: IDC
Company has six separate business units (SBU) in IT business such as components,
peripherals and consumer PC, system and commercial PC, software, networking and
enterprise.
Pursuing four-pronged growth strategy
Strategic initiatives to yield results
REDI is pursuing a four-pronged strategy to achieve strong growth and sustain the
competitive advantage in IT distribution industry.
Indias market offers significant opportunities to IT services providers due to increasing
demand.
Company has scope to add new products to its existing verticals and move up the value
chain. A diversified portfolio enables it to manage vendor risks and growth effectively.
REDIs global reach provides competitive advantage as suppliers eye worldwide market
penetration.
Four-pronged growth strategy
Source: MOSL
Growth in existing
product lines Partnering with
new vendors
Adding new
products
Foray into new
verticals andbusiness lines
ADC
Nook
Exploring new
regions andgeography/
inorganic
acquisitions
Entry into CIS
countries
Strategic
initiatives Lower stake in
NBFC
Asset-light plans
for the entity
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REDI has good scope to add new products to its existing verticals and move up the
value chain. A diversified portfolio enables it to manage vendor risks and growth
effectively. A key example is the addition of Apple iPhone, which has the potential to
contribute ~INR24b to REDIs top line by FY14.
Key initiatives across categories
Categories Initiatives/Triggers
Components Increasing brand affiliations
Peripherals and PCs Has affiliations with all key players
System and commercial PC Revival of government spending
Software Moving up the value chainNetworking New opportunities in the cloud space
Enterprise Revival of government spending
Source: MOSL
Breakup of Indian IT industry FY13 (%) REDI IT product-wise breakup
Legacy
Distribution
Deepar
Technical
Aptitude
Solutions-Based
Distribution
Core Value
Proposition
Expertise
Differentiators
Key Services
Pick, Pack, Ship
Operations,
Logistics, Scale
Credit, Account
Management,
Logistics
Product
Excellence
Technical
Specialization
Vertical Focus;
Professional
Services
Partner Enablement
and Development
Selling into Target
Markets
Analystics-Based
Marketing, Technical &
Sales Acumen
Developing a Knowledge
Base of Expertise
Potential to move up value chain
Source: Industry, MOSL
Line Card, Price,
Availability
Value
Distribution
Source: IDC
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Apple sales in India set to mimic RIM success
Source: Company, MOSL
Vendor de-risking: Reliance on HP in the domestic revenues has declined (%)
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12HP 44 40 38 34 22 20
RIM 0 0 0 5 15 18
Microsoft 9 9 10 10 8 7
Acer 3 2 3 5 5 5
Lenova 6 6 5 5 6 5
Apple 0 0 0 0 0 5
Others 38 43 43 41 44 40
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100
Source: Company, MOSL
B) Foray into new verticals and business linesREDI is focusing on new revenue lines: 1) consumer durables, 2) ADC operations and
3) nook initiative. With a view to leverage its existing strengths in logistics business
and also to broad-base product offerings, company forayed into distribution of
consumer durable goods. It is mostly focused in South India and is increasing its
presence in the West; key clients include LG, Whirlpool, Voltas, Godrej etc.
Management expects this business to reach INR10b by FY15. Implementation of GST
could increase demand for 3PL players, thus benefiting this segment in particular and
REDI significantly.
C) Exploring new regions and geographyGeographical foray provides the company with a more balanced global portfolio to
manage and mitigate risk. REDIs global reach enables it competitive advantage, with
suppliers eyeing worldwide market penetration. It is the largest distribution company
in the Middle East and also has significant presence in Africa and Turkey. Around 54%
of revenues is derived from international operations, while 46% of revenues is from
domestic operations. Similarly, ~38% of net profit is derived from international
operations, while ~62% of net profit is from domestic operations.
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Growth of international business (INR m)
Source: MOSL
D) Successful strategic initiatives could be a key positive
We expect REDI to take strategic initiatives to 1) lower stake in the 100% NBFC byattracting strategic financial and operational partners and 2) possible corporate
restructuring to make it asset light. We believe successful implementation of REDIs
strategic plans could allay concerns on 1) its NBFC arm, 2) recovery in its subsidiary
Arena and 3) asset-heavy capex plans for ADCs.
NBFC contributes to REDIs success
REDI has a wholly-owned non-banking finance company (NBFC), Easyaccess Financial
Services Ltd (EFTL), which was set up in 2008 to cater to trade finance needs of domestic
IT industry. EFTL enables REDIs channel partners to transact large volumes of business
without being constrained for credit through a range of solutions like trade finance,enterprise finance and A/R management.
The NBFC also provides need-based financing to channel partners beyond the
distributor credit period. Till date it has no NPAs. Though currently it is a 100%
subsidiary of REDI, management has plans to lower stake to ~51% by divesting to a
strategic investor, PE fund etc. This we believe would be a key positive for REDI and
allay investor concerns on the NBFC.
ADCs to tap emerging opportunities
With a view on impending introduction of GST in India, REDI is proactively building
large automatic distribution centres (ADCs) in key business regions to captureemerging opportunities such as 3PL services, storage and warehousing etc. It has two
ADCs at Chennai and Dubai operational since July 2009 and September 2010 and is
working on three ADCs, which shall be functional soon.
Details of warehouses
Acres Status
Acquired Land
Chennai 11.56 Operational since Jul'09
Kolkata 13.76 2HFY13
New Delhi 13.32 2HFY14
Mumbai Yet to acquire land
Long term Lease
Dubai 5.16 Operational since Sep'10
Source: Company, MOSL
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Chennai ADC
Dubai ADC
Source: Company, MOSL
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Non-IT business gains momentum
With a view to leverage strengths in the logistics business and de-risk its business,
REDI forayed into distribution of consumer goods such as smart phones, tablets,
washing machines, refrigerators and other electronic consumer durables. Given lack
of quality 3PL players in India, it is well-placed to create a significant niche in this
segment. REDIs non-IT business has grown from ~5% of its overall revenues in FY07 to
~19% in FY12. Increasing share of non-IT products as a percentage of overall revenues
is a key positive for REDI as they have lower working capital requirements, enjoy
better margins and also de-risk it from any potential slowdown in the IT segment.
Share of non-IT business increases (% of total revenues)
Strategic diversifications aimed to de-risk model
Non-IT segment to be the key growth driver
To further leverage its existing strengths in the logistics business and to broadbase product
offerings, REDI forayed into distribution of consumer goods. Its non-IT business has grown
from ~5% of its overall revenues in FY07 to ~19% in FY12. Given lack of quality 3PL players
in India, REDI is well-placed to create a niche in this segment.
We expect its consumer goods business, which has key clients like LG, Whirlpool, Voltas,
Godrej, etc to increase from ~INR1.8b in FY12 to ~INR8.5b by FY15E.
Projections for smart phone sales (m) Blackberry, a key success story
Source: Company, MOSL
REDI set to mimic its Blackberry success with iPhone
To broaden the basket of new brands, REDI recently tied up with Apple to distribute
iPhone range, which could be its next big success story. REDI had ventured into the
smart phone category in FY09, with the launch of Blackberry smart phones. This was a
huge success as within three years, Blackberry sales increased from ~INR162m in FY09
(m)('000)
Source: Industry, MOSL
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Source: Company, MOSL
Revenue of consumer durable goods to increase by ~5x over FY12-15EWith a view to leverage its existing strengths in the logistics business and to broad-
base product offerings, REDI forayed into distribution of consumer goods. It is mostly
focused in South India and is increasing its presence in the West. Key clients include
LG, Whirlpool, Voltas, Godrej etc, and management expects the business to reach
INR8.5b by FY15E. Implementation of GST could increase the demand for 3PL players
and thus benefit the segment and REDI significantly.
Consumer goods sales to post strong growth (INR m)
to ~INR16b in FY12. Though growth rates for Blackberry have moderated, the strong
growth in smart phone category continues.
Industry estimates suggests the total iPhone market in India at ~1m. Currently, Apple
has two distributors in India - Ingram Micron and REDI. Management is confident ofgarnering a market share of 60-70% in this category, implying a potential market of
~INR24b for REDI. Though margins provided by Apple are lower than Blackberry, working
capital requirements are low-to-negative, given the high demand for Apple products
in India.
Apple products sale in India over 1HFY10 to 1HFY13
Source: Company, MOSL
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Services business - one of the most profitable vertical
Though services account for only ~2% of REDIs revenues, it enjoys high gross margins
of ~30-40%. Almost 72% of services income is derived from international business
and 28% from domestic. REDIs services vertical not only provides it a mean to expand
the revenue stream, but also acts as a key differentiating factor compared tocompetitors. Company follows a unique model for its services business, whereby the
centers are neutral and not exclusive to REDI or any particular brand. It has two business
segments: 1) warranty period and 2) post warranty period. The table below depicts
various revenue streams for REDI under both formats.
Source: Company, MOSL
Redington Service Model
Redington Service Model
Warranty Post-Warranty
Event Based Retainer Annuity
Vendor pays for
service
provided to
customer on
request
Paid monthly by
vendor to
maintain agreed
resources and
service level
agreements for
their products
Vendor pays
annual support
charges per
unit sold
during the
year
Event Based Infrastructure
Management
ServicesCustomers pay
as and when
they use the
services
Customer pays
for round the
clock support
for hardware
and application
maintenance
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Strong revenue and earnings growth outlook
Expect revenue CAGR of 17% over FY12-15E
We estimate REDI to report revenue CAGR of ~17% over FY12-15E, which would be
driven by ~18% CAGR in domestic revenues and 15% CAGR in international revenues.Domestic IT segment is likely to post ~16% CAGR, while non-IT segment is likely to
register 24% CAGR. In the international vertical, we expect IT segment to clock a CAGR
of 15.4%, while the non-IT segment would post a CAGR of 15%. The revenue mix
among IT, non-IT and services would be ~77%, 22% and ~2% respectively by FY15E.
The share of domestic revenues is likely to increase from ~46% in FY12 to ~48% by
FY15E.
Breakup of sales and key assumptions (INR m)
Y/E March 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E CAGR
(FY12-15)
Domestic 64,861 81,778 96,665 113,025 136,045 159,602 18.2
% Change 7 26 18 17 20 17
% of net sales 47 49 46 47 48 48
Non IT
Value 6,526 17,633 26,474 32,828 43,004 50,745 24.2
% Change 170 50 24 31 18
% of sales 5 11 12 14 15 15
IT
Value 54,486 61,782 69,175 78,997 91,637 107,215 15.7
% Change 13 12 14 16 17
% of sales 40 37 33 33 32 32Service
Value 913 723 1,017 1,200 1,404 1,642
% Change -21 41 18 17 17
International 69,245 86,531 112,976 129,089 148,616 173,312 15.3
% Change 5 25 31 14 15 17
Non IT
Value 12,099 12,134 14,216 16,348 18,964 21,619 15.0
% Change 0 17 15 16 14
% of sales 9 7 7 7 7 7
IT
Value 54,726 71,675 96,087 109,827 126,301 147,772 15.4
% Change 31 34 14 15 17
% of sales 40 43 45 45 44 44
Service
Value 2,420 2,723 2,674 2,914 3,352 3,921 13.6
% Change 12 -2 9 15 17
% of sales 2 2 1 1 1 1
IT 109,212 133,457 165,261 188,824 217,938 254,988 15.6
Non IT 18,626 29,766 40,689 49,175 61,968 72,363 21.2
Services 3,333 3,446 3,691 4,114 4,755 5,564 14.7
Net Sales 137,578 167,038 211,930 241,509 283,950 332,082 16.6
Change (%) 8.5 21.4 26.9 14.0 17.6 17.0
Source: MOSL
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Growth in domestic and international markets
Source: Company, MOSL
Segment-wise revenue breakup Breakup among domestic and global business
Source: Company, MOSL
Expect margins to remain stable
We estimate EBITDA to increase from INR6.2b in FY12 to ~INR9.8b in FY15E, a CAGR of
16.5%. While EBITDA margins to improve marginally from 2.9% in FY12 to ~3% in FY15E.
This would be driven by an increasing proportion of non-IT and services revenues,
which enjoy higher margins. In FY15, we expect domestic operations to account for
~64% of EBIT, while the international operations is likely to account for ~36% of EBIT.
EBITDA to post a CAGR of 16.5% over FY12-15E
Source: MOSL
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Expect net profit growth of ~20% over FY12-15E
We expect REDI's net profit to post a CAGR of ~20% over FY12-15E. This would primarily
be led by strong revenue growth, marginal improvement in EBIT margins and benefits
from lower leverage. We expect net profit margin to increase marginally from 1.4% in
FY12 to ~1.5% by FY15E. We expect domestic operations to contribute ~62% of profits
and the international operations to contribute ~38% of profits.
Net profit CAGR of ~20% over FY12-15E RoCE, RoE to remain strong
Source: Company, MOSL
Working capital intensity to remain stable
IT product and services distribution industry is intensive in working capital and requires
significant levels in receivables and inventory, which to some extent is offset by
vendor trade account payables. Based on the timing of customer receipt and payment
to vendor, the actual level of net debt could vary significantly compared to actual
debt at a period's end. We expect REDI's net working capital to decline from ~46 days
in FY13 to ~44 days by FY15E. Typically working capital requirement for a distribution
company like REDI gets negatively impacted during economic downturn and improves
on the back of economic upturn.
EBIT margins in domestic and international markets
Source: Company, MOSL
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Muted 1HFY13 performance, sharp recovery expected in 2HFY13
During 1HFY13, REDIs revenue growth was muted at ~10% (2% in domestic and 19.3%
in international). We expect REDI to benefit from 1) pent up government demand
based on implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST), 2) iPhone distribution to
boost domestic non-IT growth and has the potential to contribute ~INR24b to REDIstop line by FY14 and 3) revival in subsidiary Arenas operations thus driving
international growth.
Share of international revenues has been increasing
Source: Company, MOSL
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Valuation and view
REDI is the leading IT SCM player in India and the Middle East and is a strategic partner
to the world's leading technology companies. We expect REDI to post revenue CAGR
of 17% and net profit CAGR of ~20% over FY12-15E. Implementation of GST wouldunveil and increase new opportunities for the company, particularly in non-IT vertical.
Its efforts to diversify across the supply chain industry are paying off, with non-IT
segment as a percentage of revenues increasing from ~5% in FY07 to ~19% in FY12.
REDI recently tied up with Apple to distribute iPhone range. We estimate the iPhone
market in India at ~1m and expect REDI to garner ~60% market share, which implies a
potential new product category of ~INR24b for it in FY14E. We believe successful
implementation of REDI's strategic initiatives could allay concerns on 1) its NBFC arm,
2) outlook for its subsidiary Arena and 3) asset-heavy capex plans for ADCs. REDI
trades at 7.5x/6.3x FY14E/FY15E EPS and EV of 6.2x/5.4x FY14E/FY15E EBITDA. We initiatecoverage with a Buy and a target price of INR103, based on intrinsic P/E of 8x its FY15E
earnings, an upside of ~27%.
Intrinsic P/E calculation for REDI
Current Earnings 3,404
Book value of equity 16,303 RoE = 21%
Revenues 209,086
Growth Period
Length of growth period (Years) 10
Growth rate during period (g) 15.4% Expected RoE = 21%
Payout ratio during period (%) 27%
Cost of Equity during period 14.55%
Stable/ Terminal Growth Period
Growth rate in steady state 4.6%
Payout ratio in steady state 50% Expected RoE = 18%
Cost of Equity in steady state 15.3%
Target Price (Based on FY15E EPS)
Current Price 81
Target Price 103
% Upside 27.0
PER (x) 8.1
Cost of Equity: Growth Period Cost of Equity: Stable Period
Rf 7.8% Rf 7.8%
Rmp 7.5% Rmp 7.5%
Beta 0.9 Beta 1.0
COE 14.6% COE 15.3%
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Impact of change in growth COE (INR)
Impact of change in terminal COE (INR)
Impact of change in both growth and terminal COE (INR)
Source: Company, MOSL
Sensitivity to Cost of Equity
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Comparative Valuations
CMP MCap EPS Gr. (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBIDTA RoE (%)
(M) CY13 CY14 CY13 CY14 CY13 CY14 CY13 CY14 CY13 CY14
Avnet INC (USD) 34 4,721 -25.7 18.5 11.1 9.4 1.2 1.1 6.9 6.0 10.5 14.1
Arrow Electronics (USD) 39 4,156 0.4 11.2 9.2 8.2 1.0 0.9 6.6 6.1 11.0 10.6
Ingram Micro INC-CL A (USD) 18 2,758 17.4 9.7 8.7 7.9 0.7 0.7 3.5 3.4 8.6 8.8
Synnex Corp (USD) 36 1,359 6.2 10.3 8.8 8.0 1.0 0.8 5.0 4.5 11.2 11.9
Tech Data Cor (USD) 49 1,867 0.9 15.2 9.8 8.5 1.2 1.1 4.6 4.1 10.2 11.1
Synnex Technology (TWD) 59 91,616 16.7 11.3 13.4 12.1 10.0 - 15.4 -
FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15
Redington India (INR) 81 33,283 18.7 17.7 8.0 6.8 1.7 1.4 6.8 5.9 22.6 22.2
Digital China (HKD) 13 13,733 19.8 16.8 8.7 7.5 1.5 1.3 6.1 5.2 18.7 19.2
Source: MOSL
Redington India PE band Redington India PB band
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Company background
REDI is promoted by the Singapore-based Kewalram Chanrai Group that also owns
OLAM and Jaslok Hospital in Mumbai, India. In 1993, it began as a component distributor
and moved into completed products such as PCs, desktops etc and finally into value-
added products. It then positioned as a complete supply chain manager, with a focus
on value-added IT products.
In the past 3-4 years, REDI is slowly transitioning into a complete supply chain manager
to include non-IT products too, with a presence in India, Middle East, Africa and Turkey.
Company has organically grown its business to be the largest IT distributor in India
and the Middle East and Africa (MEA). REDI plans to slowly extend its reach to CIS
countries too. It aims to have a global footprint in developing countries.
Group structure
Source: Company
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Failure to adapt to IT industry changes
IT products industry is subject to rapid technological changes, new and enhanced
product specifications, evolving industry standards and changes in the manner
technology products are distributed and managed. If REDI fails to adopt these changing
dynamics, it may incur inventory loss or fail to sustain its leadership position.
Intense competition
Key competitors include local, regional, national and international distributors and
suppliers that employ a direct-sales model. Thus, competition is intense and often
price-based. Currently, some of the leading global distribution companies like Tech
Data and Synnex Taiwan are not present both in India and the Middle East. Hence,
their entry could increase competition.
High risk of clients concentration
A significant percentage of REDIs revenues relates to products sold by few suppliers.
Due to such concentration risk, terminations of supply or services agreements or a
significant change in the terms of business could adversely impact it. REDIs key clients
in the domestic market are HP (~20%) and RIM (~18%), while HP (~39%) and Nokia
(~14%) account for key international clients. However, the dependence on these
vendors is constantly reducing, given additions of new verticals and product categories.
HP accounted for 44% of its domestic sales in FY07 and 20% in FY12; globally, HP was
~60% of sales in FY07 and ~39% in FY12.
Exposed to risks of conducting business in multiple geographies
Company is exposed to the impact of foreign currency fluctuations, interest rate
changes and other macro risks due to its exposure to international markets.
Key risks
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Financials and Valuation
Income Statement (INR Million)
Y/E March 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E
Net Sales 137,578 167,038 211,930 241,595 284,189 331,873
Change (%) 8.6 21.4 26.9 14.0 17.6 16.8Total Expenditure 134,118 162,294 205,718 234,678 275,852 322,050
% of Sales 97.5 97.2 97.1 97.1 97.1 97.0
EBITDA 3,459 4,744 6,212 6,916 8,336 9,823
Margin (%) 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0
Depreciation 234 246 310 387 467 553
EBIT 3,225 4,499 5,902 6,530 7,869 9,269
Int. and Finance Charges 664 1,177 1,689 1,837 1,931 1,982
Other Income - Rec. 198 189 290 266 285 339
PBT bef. EO Exp. 2,759 3,510 4,503 4,958 6,223 7,627
EO Expense/(Income) 0 4 -1 0 0 0
PBT after EO Exp. 2,759 3,506 4,505 4,958 6,223 7,627
Current Tax 639 893 1,131 1,339 1,755 2,288
Deferred Tax 0 -31 -18 0 0 0
Tax Rate (%) 23.2 24.6 24.7 27.0 28.2 30.0
Reported PAT 2,120 2,644 3,392 3,619 4,468 5,339
PAT Adj for EO items 1,843 2,259 2,928 3,404 4,208 5,040
Change (%) 15.5 22.6 29.6 16.3 23.6 19.8
Margin (%) 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5
Less: Mionrity Interest 276.9 387.7 463 215 260 299
Profit for the Year 1,843 2,259 2,928 3,404 4,208 5,040
Balance Sheet
Y/E March 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015EEquity Share Capital 786 793 797 797 797 797
Total Reserves 9,971 11,761 12,428 15,505 19,014 23,214
Net Worth 10,757 12,553 13,225 16,303 19,811 24,011
Deferred Liabilities 0 36 11 11 11 11
Total Loans 11,486 16,128 20,917 22,317 24,217 24,717
Minority Interest 2,403 3,413 949 1,164 1,424 1,723
Capital Employed 24,646 32,130 35,102 39,795 45,463 50,462
Gross Block 1,271 3,309 3,858 4,708 5,603 6,558
Less: Accum. Deprn. 424 1,192 1,505 1,892 2,359 2,912
Net Fixed Assets 847 2,118 2,353 2,816 3,244 3,646
Capital WIP 121 14 87 0 0 0
Curr. Assets, Loans&Adv. 35,337 47,983 51,885 59,494 68,793 77,943
Inventory 9,829 15,833 17,000 20,519 24,137 28,186
Account Receivables 18,164 18,703 22,190 25,152 29,587 34,551
Cash and Bank Balance 5,826 4,806 4,834 5,218 4,948 4,295
Loans and Advances 1,519 8,642 7,860 8,605 10,122 10,911
Curr. Liability & Prov. 11,694 18,594 20,020 23,129 27,187 31,739
Account Payables 11,090 17,973 19,707 22,767 26,760 31,242
Provisions 604 621 313 362 426 498
Net Current Assets 23,644 29,389 31,865 36,365 41,606 46,204
Appl. of Funds 24,646 32,130 35,102 39,795 45,463 50,463
E: MOSL Estimates; * Adjusted for treasury stocks
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Financials and Valuation
Ratios
Y/E March 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E
Basic (INR) *
EPS 4.7 5.7 7.3 8.5 10.6 12.6
Cash EPS 5.3 6.3 8.1 9.5 11.7 14.0
BV/Share 27.4 31.7 33.2 40.9 49.7 60.2
DPS 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.7 1.5 1.8
Payout (%) 21.9 19.3 6.0 9.0 15.7 15.7
Valuation (x) *
P/E 10.8 9.3 7.5 6.3
Cash P/E 9.8 8.4 6.8 5.7
P/BV 2.4 1.9 1.6 1.3
EV/Sales 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
EV/EBITDA 7.8 7.1 6.2 5.4
Dividend Yield (%) 0.5 0.9 1.9 2.3
Return Ratios (%)
RoE 17.7 19.4 22.7 23.1 23.3 23.0
RoCE 16.3 18.4 19.7 18.7 19.7 20.7
Working Capital Ratios
Asset Turnover (x) 5.6 5.2 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.6
Inventory (Days) 26.1 34.6 29.3 31.0 31.0 31.0
Debtor (Days) 48 41 38 38 38 38
Leverage Ratio (x)
Current Ratio 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5
Debt/Equity 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0
* Adjusted for treasury stocks
Cash Flow Statement (INR Million)
Y/E March 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E
Oper. Profit/(Loss) before Tax 3,225 4,499 5,902 6,530 7,869 9,269
Interest/Dividends Recd. 664 1,177 1,689 1,837 1,931 1,982
Depreciation 234 246 310 387 467 553
Direct Taxes Paid 590 815 1,041 1,273 1,684 2,204
(Inc)/Dec in WC -2,460 -7,275 -2,642 -4,117 -5,511 -5,250
CF from Operations 409 -3,346 2,529 1,527 1,141 2,368
EO expense 0 -4 1 184 0 0
CF from Operating incl EO 409 -3,351 2,530 1,711 1,141 2,368
(inc)/dec in FA -323 -1,409 -619 -763 -895 -955
(Pur)/Sale of Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0
CF from investments -174 -1,267 -401 -563 -681 -700
Issue of Shares -961 642 -4,998 0 0 0
(Inc)/Dec in Debt 1,656 4,642 4,789 1,400 1,900 500
Interest Paid -664 -1,177 -1,689 -1,837 -1,931 -1,982
Dividend Paid -465 -509 -204 -326 -700 -839
CF from Fin. Activity -433 3,598 -2,101 -764 -731 -2,321
Inc/Dec of Cash -198 -1,020 28 384 -270 -839
Add: Beginning Balance 6,024 5,826 4,806 4,834 5,218 4,948
Closing Balance 5,826 4,806 4,834 5,218 4,948 4,108
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N O T E S
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Motilal Oswal Securities LtdM til l O l T L l 9 S i R d P bh d i M b i 400 025
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