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Page 1: Quarterly Market Trends: Fourth Quarter 2013
Page 2: Quarterly Market Trends: Fourth Quarter 2013

CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 2®

Foreword

January 2014

Dear CCIM Institute members,

Welcome to the fourth-quarter 2013 edition of CCIM Institute’s Quarterly Market Trends. The report provides timely insight into major commercial real estate indicators for core income-producing properties. It is produced by the National Association of Realtors® in conjunction with and for members of the CCIM Institute, the commercial real estate industry’s global standard for professional achievement.

The fourth-quarter 2013 report features commentary from Lawrence Yun, Ph.D., NAR chief economist, and George Ratiu, director of NAR’s quantitative and commercial research. It also includes market data collected from CCIM members that illustrate regional economic and transactional trends across the U.S. I’d like to thank the CCIM members who participated in the survey and shared insights on their local markets.

I hope that the information provided in CCIM’s Quarterly Market Trends report provides both economic and commercial real estate market information that will assist you in your business strategies in 2014 and beyond.

Sincerely,

Karl Landreneau, CCIM2014 CCIM Institute [email protected]

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CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 3®

Table of Contents

U.S. Economic Overview p. 4Commercial Real Estate Forecast p. 8CCIM Market and Transaction Highlights p. 16Commercial Property Sector Analysis p. 17CCIM Survey Results p. 20U.S. Metropolitan Economic Outlook p. 24Sponsors p. 29Contributors p. 30

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CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 4®

U.S. Economic Overview

The U.S. economy is expected to continue its slow

upward trajectory through 2015. A wide variety of

economic variables can impact commercial real

estate sales, but trends in three key variables — gross

domestic product, employment, and interest rates—

generally summarize the outlook for commercial real

estate in the near term. GDP and employment are in

a slow growth mode, and interest rates are projected

to continue to be favorable to sales. Accordingly, the

commercial real estate sales outlook is positive, but

at the same time mediocre.

The slower than expected economic expansion and

lingering uncertainties from the Great Recession

are slowing job creation. The real level of economic

expansion continues to be forecasted at less than 3

percent, a rate that would signify a normal expansion

economy.

GDP Growth

The Great Recession appears to have been caused

by the confluence of excessive financial speculation

coupled with a normal economic slowdown,

resulting in a sharp recession, significantly lower

levels of consumer confidence, and high levels

of unemployment. Annual real GDP growth has

averaged 2.3 percent since the end of the Great

Recession in second-quarter 2009, and historically

growth above 3 percent has followed recessions

in the 1970s-2000s. Lower than normal levels of

household formation, decreased state and local

government expenditures, a mediocre level of

consumer confidence, and significant losses in

household wealth have contributed to the relatively

low level of economic growth.

Wealth effects initially held back the economic

expansion: Approximately $6.5 trillion of housing

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CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 5®

U.S. Economic Overview

wealth was eliminated from fourth-quarter 2006

to fourth-quarter 2011 as home prices declined,

according to Federal Reserve Bank data. Coupled

with major declines in the stock markets, this

deleveraging negatively impacted consumer

confidence and spending decisions by corporations,

consumers, and governments.

Uncertainties about the economy were also illustrated

by unusually low levels of consumer confidence. The

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, which measures

the level of economic uncertainty, reached historical

highs in August 2011.

Finally, weak consumer demand, increasing economic

inequality, and the growth of low-pay part-time jobs

continue to be causative factors in the economy’s

slowness. Income flows are circular in the economy.

As such, the significant growth of the number of

consumers with lower incomes has been cited as a

major negative impact on consumer expenditures.

Job Growth

The economy needs to create an average of 125,000

additional jobs per month just to stay even with

population growth. Since the end of the Great

Recession job growth has averaged 124,000 new

jobs per month, according to the Bureau of Labor

Statistics. As of October 2013, approximately 20

million people were unemployed or employed part

time for economic reasons, according to a BLS

Household Survey, and the monthly job creation rate

reported through October 2013 was 186,000 per

month.

At current job creation rates, it will take 58 months

to get unemployment down to 5 percent with no

improvement in part-time workers who would

like full-time jobs. In addition, the labor force has

dropped from 65.7 percent in January 2009 to 62.8

percent in 2013, which accounts for the elimination

of approximately 7 million jobs. Some of the labor

force dropouts probably represent discouraged

workers leaving the labor force.

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CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 6®

Job creation is a major driver of the demand for

commercial real estate, and currently this driver is

weaker than it should be under normal conditions.

As such, slow job creation appears to be the result of

a weak recovery from the Great Recession coupled

with ongoing economic uncertainty.

Interest Rates

Most economists expect the Federal Reserve

System to end quantitative easing at some point

in 2014. Interest rates are expected to rise, but

are projected to continue to be relatively low by

historic standards. In addition, the Fed is expected

to continue to support an expanding economy

through relatively easy monetary policy. This

is good news for commercial sales prospects.

Subpar Expansion— Is It the New Normal?

All forecasts are based on a myriad of economic

assumptions, i.e., that there will be no unforeseen

changes in Federal budgets, that a monetary crisis

will not freeze financial markets, that taxation and

debt solvency issues can be resolved at the national

level, that major European economies will continue

to improve, and that major political risks do not

generate economic disasters. The current forecast is

based on a continuation of current economic trends

absent exceptional economic drama.

Assuming that there are no surprises or shocks

to the economy, no major tax increases, and that

government spending continues at current levels,

the economy is projected to grow moderately for the

next three years. Both monetary and fiscal policy have

been relatively expansionary, although tempered

by sequestration and modestly rising interest

rates. Despite sequestration and government belt

tightening, the federal government continues to run

at a substantial deficit. State and local governments

as a whole do not appear to be in a mode for

additional cutbacks.

The economic forecast is based largely on the

assumption of repeated historical relationships in

U.S. Economic Overview

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CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 7®

terms of consumer behavior, asset prices, and domestic

and international transactions. Trends in asset prices (e.g.,

stocks, housing prices, oil prices, international exchange

rates) are essentially unpredictable, but are assumed to

be favorable. The assumption of the absence of surprises

or shocks to the economy means that the economy will

continue to grow.

Both economic and non-economic factors coupled with

the lingering wealth effects from the Great Recession

appear to be holding the economy back. The National

Federation of Independent Businesses has reported both

demand/poor sales (the economic factor) and government

regulatory requirements (the non-economic factor) as

problems holding back the economy.

Uncertainties about quantitative easing, fundamental

budgetary and sequestration disagreements in Congress,

hiring concerns reported to be a result of changes in medical

insurance programs, and general business concerns appear

to be keeping business optimism at lower than normal

levels and negatively impacting hiring decisions. In addition,

U.S. Economic Overview

consumer confidence is well below the 100 level that

one would expect during an expanding economy

and the monthly economic policy uncertainty index,

which is based on newspaper coverage, federal tax

code provisions, and disagreements among economic

forecasters, continues to be relatively unfavorable.

The bottom line is: There continues to be substantial

economic uncertainty.

In short, the combination of uncertainties and the

lingering effects of the Great Recession appear to

continue to hold back GDP and job growth potential.

Consequently, both a recession and robust growth

appear to be unlikely in the next few years. While the

outlook is positive, it remains mediocre as it is strongly

influenced by uncertainties and perceptions about

current government policies. If these exogenous

factors were to change unexpectedly (and this is a

distinct upside possibility given that we are dealing to

a significant degree with political and psychological

issues), the forecast could become significantly more

positive in 2014.

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CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 8®

Fundamentals

Third-quarter 2013 economic activity—as measured by GDP—witnessed a solid 3.6 percent growth. Some of

that positive growth spilled over into commercial real estate markets. Net absorption figures were positive,

and modest new construction led to steady vacancy declines.

Commercial Real Estate Forecast

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CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 9®

Commercial Property Sector Overview

Office

The office sector remained bound to modest

employment gains in office-using industries. After

staying flat for the previous two quarters, office

vacancies declined 10 basis points in the third quarter.

Compared with a year ago, availability rates were

30 basis points lower. Demand for office properties

remained moderate, with net absorption totaling

5.4 million square feet, according to Reis. For the

fourth quarter, net absorption is projected to reach

13.4 million sf. The best performing markets during

the quarter were those clustered in technology and

energy industries, including Houston, Austin, Texas,

Dallas, Boston, Denver, San Francisco, and Seattle.

Office vacancy rates are estimated to close the year

at an average 15.7 percent. Regionally, the markets

with the lowest projected vacancy rates in the fourth

quarter are New York (9.8 percent), Washington, D.C.

(9.9 percent), Little Rock, Ark., (12.0 percent), and

Commercial Real Estate Forecast

Nashville, Tenn. (12.7 percent). Asking rents advanced

0.3 percent in the third quarter based on data from

Reis. Rents are projected to rise 2.4 percent by the

end of the year.

Industrial

International trade increased in the third quarter,

leading to a positive trade balance. Port and

intermodal markets reaped most of the benefits

from the activity, posting stronger occupancy and

rent rates. However, on a national level, demand

for industrial space was moderate. Third-quarter

absorption totaled 14.5 million square feet, according

to Reis. On the other hand, the supply of new

industrial buildings reached its post-2009 peak,

totaling 7.4 million sf. Due to the supply increase,

vacancy rates declined 10 basis points from second

quarter, and 70 basis points on a yearly basis.

Availability rates are projected to decline to an

average 9.3 percent for the year. Markets with the

lowest fourth quarter estimated vacancy rates include

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CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 10®

Orange County, Calif. (3.9 percent), Los Angeles

(4.0 percent), Miami (6.0 percent), and Seattle (6.3

percent). Asking rents for industrial space rose 0.4

percent in the third quarter and are projected to

gain 2.3 percent for the year.

Retail

Political uncertainty in Washington, D.C., and the

threat of government shutdown loomed large in

the third quarter. Though GDP during the quarter

was solid, it is expected to have slowed drastically

to about 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter. Consumer

confidence remained muted, leading to soft spending

at the retail level. As a result, demand for retail space

was weak, with absorption totaling 2.3 million square

feet according to Reis. Meanwhile, the volume of

new construction hit a yearly peak, with 1.5 million

square feet coming online. The combination kept

vacancy rates flat in the third quarter compared with

the second. On a yearly basis, availability was down

30 basis points.

Commercial Real Estate Forecast

Retail vacancy is expected to drop to 10.5 percent

by the end of the fourth quarter. Coastal markets

retain their supremacy in terms of vacancies and rent

growth, with California, New York City suburbs, and

Washington, D.C., and its suburbs at the top. Two

markets offer projected vacancy rates below 5.0

percent, including Fairfield County, Conn., and San

Francisco. Asking rents rose 0.3 percent in the third

quarter, and are estimated to increase 1.4 percent by

the end of 2013.

Multifamily

Despite investor concerns about the apartment

market’s performance, demand for multifamily

properties remained strong in the third quarter.

According to Reis, net absorption totaled 41,283

units during the quarter. The supply of apartments

also grew, adding 36,269 new units on the market.

In turn, the vacancy rate slid 10 basis points during

the third quarter. Availability rates are expected to

close the year at 4.1 percent. Metro markets with

the lowest projected vacancies are topped by New

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CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 11®

Haven, Conn., with a rate of 1.9 percent, followed by

Syracuse, N.Y., Minneapolis, and San Diego. Asking

apartment rents increased 1.0 percent in the third

quarter and are expected to rise at a 4.0 percent

yearly rate during 2013.

Investment Conditions

Commercial real estate investments posted an

upbeat third quarter. Sales of major properties

(greater than $2.5 million) advanced 26 percent on a

yearly basis during the quarter, totaling $89.7 billion,

according to Real Capital Analytics. Investors were

drawn to a few specific property types, leading to

double- or triple-digit growth rates: Sales of retail

properties rose 104 percent on a yearly basis, while

industrial sales volume jumped 70 percent. Sales of

properties at the lower end of the price range (less

than $2.5 million) increased 11 percent on a yearly

basis. Based on three quarters of data and fourth

quarter projections, total sales volume is expected

to surpass 2012’s $300 billion.

Commercial Real Estate Forecast

A major portion of total sales volume during the third

quarter was made up of portfolio sales, which totaled

$30.2 billion. Blackstone was involved in two major

portfolio sales transactions – an apartment portfolio

Source: Real Capital Analytics

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CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 12®

and an industrial portfolio -- totaling more than $3.1

billion. Sprint Realty Capital spent $7.7 billion on a

portfolio of mixed properties. On the individual

property side, office transactions dominated the

market for top properties. The building at 650

Madison Ave. in New York sold for $1.3 billion in the

third quarter, taking the top spot. It was followed

by several office properties including City National

Plaza and One Wilshire in Los Angeles, which traded

for $858 million and $439 million, respectively.

With sales volume on the rise, 23 metropolitan

markets surpassed the $1 billion sales volume in the

third quarter alone. Manhattan retained the top

spot, followed closely by Los Angeles and Houston.

Investor interest in secondary and tertiary markets

also remained a strong trend in the third quarter.

Markets such as Nashville, Tenn., Phoenix, Seattle,

and Denver closed sales in excess of $1.0 billion.

With rising demand, prices advanced 9.3 percent in

the third quarter according to RCA’s Commercial

Commercial Real Estate Forecast

Property Price Index. Apartments continued to

outperform the other sectors, with prices gaining 14

percent. The average apartment unit price reached

$107,240. Retail properties witnessed a 12 percent

price appreciation, trading for an average $170 psf.

Prices for office buildings rose 9 percent, changing

hands for an average of $233 psf. Finally, industrial

properties posted average prices of $65 psf, a 1

percent decline from one year ago.

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CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 13®

Commercial Real Estate Forecast

Commercial property capitalization rates increased

7 basis points to an average 6.8 percent nationally

across all property types, based on RCA data. For

properties under $2.5 million, prices increased 4

percent year over year, based on survey data from the

National Association of REALTORS®, while cap rates

increased 50 basis points to an average 9.2 percent.

As asset values rose, new commercial distress

continued on a downward trend. New distress in the

third quarter accounted for $2.5 billion, a 30 percent

decline from the same period in 2012. Workouts

stayed constant during the quarter, averaging $9 to

$10 billion, according to RCA.

Capital Markets

Diversification in lending sources continued,

and capital availability increased as values of

underlying assets rose. Even in the face of rising

mortgage rates, spreads for commercial properties

stayed even, due to increased lender competition.

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CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 14®

Commercial Real Estate ForecastCommercial mortgage-backed securities were a strong

contender in the market, accounting for 24 percent of

funding during the first half of the year. National banks

and government agencies accounted for 16 percent

and 18 percent, respectively.

However, the financing picture was not evenly focused

across property types or markets. Based on RCA

data, CMBS issuance made up the bulk of retail and

hotel deals, representing 45 percent and 42 percent

respectively of total volume. In the apartment sector,

government agencies provided 54 percent of funding,

dwarfing the next closest source, regional/local banks

(11 percent). For office and industrial deals, the capital

sources proved to be more evenly represented by

the major lending groups. Meanwhile, while major

markets had a bevy of financing choices, secondary

markets found CMBS, government agencies, and

national banks to play the lead role in transaction

financing. In tertiary markets, CMBS covered over

one-third of all financing, followed by government

agencies. Capital availability for transactions under

$2.5 million remained constrained, with cash as

the main source of financing for 33 percent of all

transactions, according to data from the National

Association of REALTORS®.

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CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 15®

Commercial Real Estate Outlook

In general, commercial sales and employment vary together. Given that the economy is currently expanding

and producing additional jobs, the outlook for the commercial sector is positive, although possibly modest.

The outlook for 2014 calls for continuing growth in commercial investments as commercial fundamentals

ride an upward trajectory. With economic growth projected at 2.5 percent annual rate (swings in quarterly

data notwithstanding), commercial markets will find absorption rising and lifting rents along with it. Although

uncertainties remain about the federal budget and how businesses will absorb the Affordable Care Act, other

segments of the economy are rising and as such it will likely mean stronger spending on the business and

consumer sides.

Commercial Real Estate Forecast

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CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 16®

CCIM members provided insights into their markets in a November 2013 survey.

• 57% of CCIM members indicated more deals in 4Q13 compared to same period the year before.

• Deals were a function of buyer demand: 61% of respondents indicated more inquiries related to buying,

while 8% had more inquiries about wanting to sell.

• Property prices continued to firm in 4Q13—32% of respondents reported prices similar to last year, while

46% reported higher prices.

• Rents increased, with 48% of CCIMs indicating higher rents versus the prior year; 35% of respondents

indicated similar rents year over year.

• Cap rates were reported to be stable, with 56% of practitioners indicating rates in line with last year; 34% dealt

with lower rates.

• 45% of respondents expect rents and prices to move together in the next one to three years. 23% said

rent growth will outpace price growth, while 32% indicated the opposite, with prices expected to outperform

rents.

• Interest rate increases tempered in 4Q13—47% of members think that Treasury yields will remain about the

same; 23% of respondents indicated that Treasury yields will rise, but will only minimally impact cap rates due to

the current spreads; and 11% of CCIMs said that Treasury yields will rise and force cap rates upward.

• 27% of respondents indicated meaningful improvement in credit availability in the third quarter compared

to last year, while 59% reported marginal improvement.

• Current credit conditions are expected to improve, according to 51% of CCIM respondents, while 41%

consider the current tightness to be the new normal.

CCIM Market and Transaction Highlights

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CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 17®

The following highlights reflect CCIM members’ local and regional economic, transaction, and property market

activity as measured in a November 2013 intelligence survey.

National Office Markets

• Deal flow was higher in the third quarter for 64 percent of CCIM members.

• Property prices were higher for 46 percent of CCIM, while 33 percent found them to be flat.

• Cap rates were even for 64 percent of CCIMs, and lower for 28 percent of respondents.

• Rental income was at similar levels for 41 percent of respondents; higher for 44 percent of CCIMs.

• 62 percent of respondents had more serious inquiries related to buying.

Commercial Property Sector Analysis

National Industrial Markets

• Industrial deal flow was higher on a yearly basis for 56 percent of respondents.

• Prices were even for 34 percent of CCIMs, and higher for 51 percent.

• Cap rates were even for 62 percent, while 28 percent reported lower cap rates.

• 53 percent of CCIM members reported higher rents.

Source: Real Capital Analytics

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CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 18®

Commercial Property Sector Analysis

Source: Real Capital Analytics

National Retail Markets

• Retail deals moved upwards for 51 percent of CCIMs.

• Prices were unchanged for 36 percent of respondents, and higher for 42 percent.

• Cap rates were the same for 51 percent of CCIMs, and lower for 37 percent.

• Rental income increased for 46 percent of CCIM members.

Source: Real Capital Analytics

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CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 19®

Commercial Property Sector Analysis

Source: Real Capital Analytics

Source: Real Capital Analytics

• 56 percent of CCIM members reported more deals in the second quarter than last year.

• Prices were higher for 55 percent of respondents.

• Cap rates stayed the same for 46 percent of members and lower for 42 percent.

• Rental income rose for 53 percent of CCIMs.

National Apartment Markets

National Hotel Markets

• Sales of hotels were higher for 75 percent of CCIMs.

• Prices increased for 75 percent of respondents.

• Cap rates were the same for 50 percent of CCIMs and lower for 38 percent of members.

• 88 percent reported more serious inquiries related to buying hotel properties.

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CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 20®

%

1. Compared to this time last year, how is your deal flow?

> More deals than this time last year

> About the same as this time last year

> Fewer deals than this time last year

56.9%

32.9%

10.2%

2. Property price compared with prices one year ago.

> The property price is higher now than if sold last year

> About the same as last year

> The property price is lower now than if sold last year

> Cannot say because it is difficult to compare, or had no transaction this year

46.2%

31.7%

7.4%

14.7%

3. Level of rental income (net rent after all concessions) compared with one year ago.

> Rents are higher by more than 5%

> Rents are higher by 1% to 5%

> About the same as last year

> Rents are lower by 1% to 5%

> Rents are lower by more than 5%

> Don’t know

11.9%

36.2%

34.6%

5.8%

2.7%

8.8%

4. Cap rates compared with one year ago.

> Higher cap rates

> About the same

> Lower cap rates

10.8%

55.7%

33.5%

CCIM Survey Results

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CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 21®

%

5. Cap rates in your current market.

> Apartment/Multifamily

> Office CBD

> Office Suburban

> Industrial Warehouse

> Industrial Flex

> Retail

> Hotel/Lodging

> Development

> Land

6.6%

7.7%

8.0%

7.8%

7.9%

7.5%

7.7%

9.1%

8.8%

6. Compared to this time last year, how would you qualify buyer interest?

> More serious inquiries related to buying

> Fewer serious inquiries related to buying

> More serious inquiries related to selling

> Fewer serious inquiries related to selling

> About the same number of serious inquiries

61.3%

9.6%

8.3%

2.9%

17.9%

7. Current difference in perception (that is, the gap in cap rates) compared to one year ago.

> The gap is narrowing with a better chance of completing a deal

> The gap is about the same

> The gap is widening with less chance of completing a deal

45.6%

43.1%

11.3%

CCIM Survey Results

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CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 22®

%

8. Current financing conditions compared to conditions one year ago.

> Credit availability has meaningfully improved from last year

> Credit availability has only marginally improved

> Credit availability is just as tight as last year with no improvement

> Credit availability has turned for the worse and is even tighter than last year

27.1%

58.6%

11.4%

2.9%

9. Expectation regarding financing over next 2 to 3 years.

> The current tight conditions are the new normal because of new financial market regulations

> Credit will be more readily accessible over time

> Credit will become even more difficult to access over time

40.8%

50.9%

8.3%

10. Clients’ expectation related to future spread outlook over next 2 to 3 years.

> Treasury yields will rise and force cap rates upward by roughly the same magnitude

> Treasury yields will rise, but it will only minimally impact cap rates because of the current

wide buffer zone (the gap between cap rate and Treasury yield)

> Treasury yields will remain about the same for an extended period and cap rates will also

remain about the same as now

> Treasury yields will remain low for an extended period and cap rates will fall closer to

historical spreads (from the current wide gap)

> Cap rates will fall, independent of how Treasury yields move

> Both Treasury yields and cap rates will fall

10.8%

22.7%

47.1%

12.2%

5.3%

2.0%

CCIM Survey Results

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%

11. Expectation regarding rent growth and property prices over the next 2 to 3 years.

> Rent growth will outpace price growth

> Rent growth will lag behind price growth

> Both rent growth and price growth will move roughly the same amount

23.2%

31.8%

45.0%

CCIM Survey Results

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CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 24®

City State Score Leading Indicator Bankruptcy Filings (2013

vs. 2012)*

Unemployment Claims (2013 vs.

2012)**

Employed (Oct. 2013 vs. Oct. 2012)

Total Permits (2013 vs. 2012)**

Phoenix AZ B 75.00 -20% -7% 2% 23%

Tucson AZ B 84.38 -20% -7% 1% 26%

Los Angeles CA B 84.38 -25% -8% 2% 31%

San Bernardino/Riverside

CA B 84.38 -25% -8% 1% 57%

Sacramento CA B 84.38 -25% -8% 1% 49%

San Diego CA A 87.50 -25% -8% 2% 9%

San Francisco CA B 78.13 -25% -8% 1% 23%

San Jose CA B 75.00 -25% -8% 2% 13%

Colorado Springs CO A 90.63 -13% -5% 1% 19%

Denver CO C 71.88 -13% -5% 3% 45%

Hartford CT A 93.75 -14% -4% 1% 12%

Washington DC C 68.75 -6% 17% 1% 20%

Jacksonville FL C 68.75 -7% -10% 2% 6%

Miami FL C 68.75 -7% -10% 2% 65%

Orlando FL C 65.63 -7% -10% 3% 42%

Tampa-St.

Petersburg

FL C 68.75 -7% -10% 3% 30%

Atlanta GA C 65.63 -10% -14% 3% 68%

U.S. Metropolitan Economic Outlook

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CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 25®

U.S. Metropolitan Economic Outlook

City State Score Leading Indicator Bankruptcy Filings (2013

vs. 2012)*

Unemployment Claims (2013 vs.

2012)**

Employed (Oct. 2013 vs. Oct. 2012)

Total Permits (2013 vs. 2012)**

Chicago IL B 75.00 -3% -1% 1% 34%

Indianapolis IN B 84.38 -5% -13% 1% 38%

Lexington KY C 68.75 -9% -9% 2% 56%

Louisville KY B 75.00 -9% -9% 2% 1%

New Orleans LA B 81.25 -2% -20% 1% 16%

Boston MA A 87.50 -26% -5% 2% 32%

Baltimore MD C 68.75 -4% -6% 1% 25%

Detroit MI A 87.50 -14% -9% 1% 39%

Minneapolis MN B 75.00 -15% -7% 2% 29%

St. Louis MO B 81.25 -5% -9% 0% 4%

Kansas City MO C 68.75 -5% -9% 1% 55%

Greensboro/Winston-Salem

NC A 87.50 -12% -18% 2% -7%

Raleigh-Durham NC B 75.00 -12% -18% 2% 7%

Charlotte NC B 75.00 -12% -18% 3% 23%

Omaha NE A 87.50 -9% -11% 1% 27%

Albuquerque NM A 87.50 -9% -25% 1% 19%

Las Vegas NV B 78.13 -25% -7% 2% 23%

Buffalo NY B 84.38 -15% -3% 1% 91%

Page 26: Quarterly Market Trends: Fourth Quarter 2013

CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 26®

U.S. Metropolitan Economic Outlook

City State Score Leading Indicator Bankruptcy Filings (2013

vs. 2012)*

Unemployment Claims (2013 vs.

2012)**

Employed (Oct. 2013 vs. Oct. 2012)

Total Permits (2013 vs. 2012)**

New York NY B 84.38 -15% -3% 2% 35%

Cleveland OH B 81.25 -7% -11% -1% 42%

Columbus OH B 78.13 -7% -11% 1% 40%

Cincinnati OH B 84.38 -7% -11% 1% 36%

Oklahoma City OK B 75.00 -11% -20% 2% 41%

Tulsa OK A 90.63 -11% -20% 2% 0%

Portland OR B 81.25 -15% -13% 2% 40%

Pittsburgh PA B 84.38 -9% -3% 2% 29%

Philadelphia PA B 84.38 -9% -3% 1% 18%

Providence RI A 96.88 -16% -7% 1% 21%

Charleston SC C 71.88 -6% -11% 1% -2%

Columbia SC A 87.50 -6% -11% 1% 8%

Greenville SC B 81.25 -6% -11% 1% 38%

Knoxville TN B 75.00 -4% -8% 1% 55%

Nashville TN D 62.50 -4% -8% 3% 40%

Chattanooga TN B 81.25 -4% -8% 0% 16%

Memphis TN C 71.88 -4% -8% 0% 6%

Austin TX C 68.75 -13% 0% 3% 19%

Dallas TX B 75.00 -13% 0% 3% 18%

Page 27: Quarterly Market Trends: Fourth Quarter 2013

CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 27®

U.S. Metropolitan Economic Outlook

City State Score Leading Indicator Bankruptcy Filings (2013

vs. 2012)*

Unemployment Claims (2013 vs.

2012)**

Employed (Oct. 2013 vs. Oct. 2012)

Total Permits (2013 vs. 2012)**

Houston TX B 75.00 -13% 0% 3% 26%

San Antonio TX B 81.25 -13% 0% 1% 5%

Salt Lake City UT B 78.13 -10% -8% 2% 33%

Richmond VA B 81.25 -13% -8% 1% 32%

Seattle WA B 78.13 -10% -10% 2% 5%

Milwaukee WI B 84.38 -10% -10% 0% 8%

Birmingham AL D 62.50 -3% -10% -1% -6%

Little Rock AR B 75.00 -4% -10% 1% -35%

New Haven CT B 84.38 -14% -4% 0% 13%

Wichita KS B 84.38 -8% -2% 0% 24%

Rochester NY B 84.38 -15% -3% 1% -4%

Syracuse NY A 87.50 -15% -3% 1% -11%

Dayton OH B 81.25 -7% -11% -1% 28%

Ventura County CA A 87.50 -25% -8% 2% 8%

Westchester NY A 87.50 -15% -3% 0% -5%

Norfolk/Hampton Roads

VA B 84.38 -13% -8% 2% 26%

Tacoma WA B 84.38 -10% -10% 0% 5%

Orange County CA B 78.13 -25% -8% 0% 73%

Page 28: Quarterly Market Trends: Fourth Quarter 2013

CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 28®

U.S. Metropolitan Economic Outlook

City State Score Leading Indicator Bankruptcy Filings (2013

vs. 2012)*

Unemployment Claims (2013 vs.

2012)**

Employed (Oct. 2013 vs. Oct. 2012)

Total Permits (2013 vs. 2012)**

Palm Beach FL C 68.75 -7% -10% 2% 17%

Fairfield County CT A 87.50 -14% -4% -1% 10%

Fort Lauderdale FL C 68.75 -7% -10% 3% 65%

Fort Worth TX B 75.00 -13% 0% 4% 18%

Long Island NY B 84.38 -15% -3% 2% 35%

Northern New Jersey

NJ C 68.75 -14% 20% 2% 33%

Oakland-East Bay CA B 84.38 -25% -8% 1% 23%

Suburban Mary-land

MD C 71.88 -4% -6% 2% 20%

Suburban Virginia VA B 84.38 -13% -8% 0% 20%

Durham NC C 71.88 -12% -18% 3% 0%

Raleigh-Cary NC B 75.00 -12% -18% 2% 7%

Central New Jersey

NJ C 65.63 -14% 20% -1% 54%

* October 2012 through September 2013 vs. October 2011 through September 2012

**November 2012 through October 2013 vs. November 2011 through October 2012

Page 29: Quarterly Market Trends: Fourth Quarter 2013

CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 29®

Sponsors

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

The Mission of the National Association of REALTORS® Research Division is to collect and disseminate timely, accurate and comprehensive real estate data and to conduct economic analysis in order to inform and engage members, consumers, and policy makers and the media in a professional and accessible manner.

The Research Division monitors and analyzes economic indicators, including gross domestic product, retail sales, industrial production, producer price index, and employment data that impact commercial markets over time. Additionally, NAR Research examines how changes in the economy affect the commercial real estate business, and evaluates regulatory and legislative policy proposals for their impact on REALTORS®, their clients and America’s property owners.

The Research Division provides several products covering commercial real estate including:• Commercial Real Estate Outlook • Commercial Real Estate Quarterly Market Survey• Commercial Real Estate Lending Survey • Commercial Member Profile

To find out about other products from NAR’s Research Division, visit www.realtor.org/research-and-statistics.

Lawrence Yun, PhDSr. Vice President, Chief [email protected]

George RatiuDirector, Quantitative & Commercial [email protected]

Ken FearsDirector, Regional Economics & Housing Finance [email protected]

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® RESEARCH DIVISION

CCIM INSTITUTE

Since 1969, the Chicago-based CCIM Institute has conferred the Certified Commercial Investment Member (CCIM) designation to commercial real estate and allied professionals through an extensive curriculum of 200 classroom hours and professional experiential requirements. Currently, there are 9,000 CCIMs in 1,000 markets in the U.S. and 31 countries worldwide. Another 3,000 practitioners are pursuing the designation, making the Institute one of the largest commercial real estate networks in the world. An affiliate of the National Association of REALTORS®, the CCIM Institute’s recognized curriculum, networking programs, and the powerful technology tool, Site To Do Business (site analysis and demographics resource), positively impact and influence the commercial real estate industry. Visit www.ccim.com for more information.

Karl Landreneau, CCIMPresident

Mark Macek, CCIMPresident-Elect

Steven W. Moreira, CCIMFirst Vice President

CCIM INSTITUTE 2014 EXECUTIVE LEADERSHIP

National Association of REALTORS®500 New Jersey Ave. N.W. Washington, D.C. 20001 800-874-6500 www.realtors.org

Craig Blorstad, CCIMTreasurer

B.K. Allen, CCIMInterim Executive Vice President/[email protected]

CCIM Institute430 North Michigan Ave., Suite 800Chicago, IL 60611 312-321-4460 www.ccim.com

©2014 The CCIM Institute and National Association of REALTORS®. All rights reserved.

Page 30: Quarterly Market Trends: Fourth Quarter 2013

CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 30®

ContributorsLisa Sands VIP Realty-Commercial Fort Myers FL

Mike Foster Coldwell Banker Commercial Grand Junction CO

Robert W. Drayton City of Charlotte Charlotte NC

Vladimir Golik Keller Williams Realty Miami FL

Aaron Banard Cushman & Wakefield Northmarq Mendota Heights MN

Brad Cooper Nai Brannen Goddard Atlanta GA

Kenneth Kujawa CENTURY 21 Signature Realty Saginaw MI

Maria Palmar Jolie Powell Realty Port Jefferson NY

Andie Edmonds ARIS Group Bend OR

Heidi Ho Century 21 All Islands Honolulu HI

Mark Rykovich Clarity Strategic Opportunities, LLC Naperville IL

Pam Rushing Coldwell Banker Commercial Salem OR

Sharon Carz REO Property Specialists Los Angeles CA

Larry Goldman Remax Commercial Overland Park KS

Dale Dockins North Bay Commercial Real Estate Santa Rosa CA

Robert Phillips Nevada Real Estate LLC Las Vegas NV

Lydia Bennett CRE West Coast, LLC Bellingham WA

Scott Perkins NAI James E.Hanson Hackensack NJ

Michael Connors CORT Business Services Corporation Chantilly VA

Jim Otis The Otis Company Omaha NE

Paul Lepine James P McCrory Co., Inc. Fort Lauderdale FL

Alberto Jauregui Nevada Land Las Vegas NV

Jan A. Sell Sell & Associates, Inc. Tempe AZ

Mel Bernstein RE/MAX Optima Oviedo FL

Ryan Marn Colliers International Honolulu HI

Rene' Nelson Pacwest Commercial Real Estate Eugene OR

Petra Della Valle Loewe-Adler International, Inc. Addison TX

Hassan Jadali Cassidy Turley St. Louis MO

Aziz Khatri KW Commercial CA

Patrick Wilcox Colliers International Parsippany NJ

Steve Eisenshtadt Friedman Integrated Real Estate Solutions Farmington Hills MI

John P. Garruto Capital Realty Consultants Marlton NJ

Shannon Mar Guarantee Real Estate Fresno CA

Gary Cornelssen Marcor Investment Properties, Inc. San Diego CA

Paul Bell Prudential Americana Group Las Vegas NV

Nick Nicketakis CBSRE Waukegan IL

Greg Ogin Clark Commercial Group Kailua Kona HI

Claude Boiron Coldwell Banker Terrequity Realty Toronto OH

Sica Nacu Southern Realty Enterprises Longwood FL

Mark Howe Triangle Real Estate Group Raleigh NC

Anne Sieg KW Commercial Indep., MO

Mat Kolding Kolding Commercial Brokerage & Invest-

ments, Inc.

Parker CO

David Jackson The Jackson Company Frisco TX

Brian Rosteck Skogman Commercial Group Cedar Rapids IA

James Barse NAI Latter & Blum New Orleans LA

Aida Yeghiazarian RE/MAX Optima Glendale CA

Nick Probst+ Corporate Realty Advisers, LLC Tulsa OK

Roger A. Delisle Jr. Island Associates Real Estate Inc. Smithtown NY

Richard Miranda KW Commercial Houston TX

Howard Wolf Wolf Group Properties, LLC Tulsa OK

George Spirrison Adelphia Properties Oak Brook IL

Ben Cherry Manor Real Estate St. Louis MO

Perry Horton REOC Austin Austin TX

Randy Summers Davis Equity Realty Weslaco TX

Ralph Duarte Sperry Van Ness Bethesda MD

Christopher M. Gibbons Venture Commercial Dallas TX

Charles A Larkin Diversified Real Estate, LLC Watertown SD

Gary Tang Hannah Investment, Inc. Albany CA

Michael Wax Industrial Park Associates Oxnard CA

John Quinn McEnearney Commercial Alexandria VA

James Conklin 7D Commercial Real Estate Floyds Knobs IN

Angie Sumner Fowler Commercial, LLC Prescott Valley AZ

Craig Evans Cassidy Turley New York NY

Dan Stauffer McCoy Corporation San Marcos TX

Kenneth Krawczyk K.S.K. Services, Inc. Pewaukee WI

Ann Samuelson Suntree Inc., Realtors Seaside OR

Paul Mader Michael Tanzillo & Company Castro Valley CA

Bogumila Kowalec All Connect Realty Port Saint Lucie FL

David Brooks Lawler-Wood, LLC Knoxville TN

Janet Robinson Coldwell Banker Commercial NRT Sarasota FL

Eugene Heathman Garland Realty and Investment Ruidoso NM

David Boyd Boyd Commercial/CORFAC International Houston TX

Donald A Ruizzo Assist 2 Sell Ace Full Service Realty St. Cloud FL

George S. Tate Jr. NAI Knoxville Knoxville TN

Herb Tousley Shenehon Company Minneapolis MN

Brandon Brown T.L. Brown Properties Jackson MS

Elgin Weaver First community credit union Houston TX

Dave Winder Cushman & Wakefield | Commerce Boise ID

Chris Schreiber Kiemle & Hagood Spokane WA

Lloyd "Skip" Miller Morris Realty Group Memphis TN

Jeff Hays RB Murray Company Springfield MO

Buddy Rancese Mutual Trust Corporate Real Estate Austin TX

Linda Cinelli LC Realty North Branch NJ

D'Arcy Browning RE/MAX Real Estate (Central) Calgary AK

Wes Hallmark Sperry Van Ness / Hallmark & Assoc. Lubbock TX

Noel Andress Sunmsrk Realty Inc. Fort Mers FL

Brian Resendez Sperry Van Ness Portland OR

Melanie Wollenberg Equity Columbus OH

Jeff Fritz Ellis-Gibson Development Group Virginia Beach VA

Steve Jacquemin S.J. Financial Group St. Louis MO

Joe Milkes Milkes Realty Valuation Dallas TX

Michael Shaffer Skogman commercial Cedar Rapids IA

Junko Masubayashi Newmark Grubb Knight Frank El Segundo CA

Brett McDermott Latitude Commercial Realty Schererville IN

Bob Swain NAI Seattle WA

Amanda Reeves Lee & Asspciates Charleston SC

John McLaughlin McLaughlin Investments, Inc. Boston MA

Darolyn Wall KW Commercial Phoenix AZ

Tony Baldwin Baldwin Realty Group Carver MA

Philip Corriher Chambers Group Charlotte NC

Anthony Alan Tapie Grandbridge Atlanta GA

Kathie Bahman Gorman & Company, Inc. Oregon WI

Daniel Zelonker Real Miami Commercial RE LLC Miami/Coral Gables FL

Barry Bounds KW Commercial Real Estate, LLC Denver CO

Dan Stiebel Coldwell Banker Schmidt Traverse City MI

John Levinsohn Levi Investment Realty, Inc. Indianapolis IN

Ara Karapetian Dilbeck Commercial La Canada CA

Greg Herbert Sperry Van Ness Eugene OR

Jen Hudson WRE/M2 Everett WA

Page 31: Quarterly Market Trends: Fourth Quarter 2013

CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 31®

ContributorsMax Finkle ReMax Renaissance Realtors Chattanooga TN

Adam Von Romer Fitzgerald Group Fort Lauderdale FL

Bill Early Copaken Brooks Kansas City MO

Steven Cohen Nautilus Capital Greenville,SC SC

Lester Liao Kennedy Heights Shopping Centre Delta WA

Gerilyn Gleason NAI Daus Cleveland OH

Mark Phillips Newmark Grubb Levy Strange Beffort Fountain Hills AZ

Tony Puente Fairchild Partners, Inc Miami FL

Colleen Berthelot Corporate Realty New Orleans LA

Don Wallace Callander Commercial Portage MI

Anthony Strauss Colliers Minneapolis MN

Gary Brown Gary Brown & Associates, Inc. Houston TX

Steve Tyrrell NAI Aguer Havelock Sacramento CA

George Tanghongs Lee & Associates Dallas TX

John Gilbert Gilbert & Ezelle Real Estate Services Savannah GA

Jason Richards Novi Real Estate Carlsbad CA

Martin Blum CBRE Richmond VA

Neil Warshafsky Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd.,

Brokerage

Toronto ON

Stephen M. Soble Ernest Soble Commercial Properties, Inc. San Antonio TX

David Victorio Coldwell Banker Commercial NRT Mansfield TX

Bob Strzalka Coldwell Banker Commercial Haddonfield NJ

Skip Rosenstock USFP Kansas City MO

Kasey Rohde JR Fulton & Associates, Inc. Norman OK

Jennifer Long Re/Max Bastrop Area Bastrop TX

Monica Rafferty Coldwell Banker Commercial Salt lake City UT

Andy Levy The Meg Companies Londonderry NH

Julian Rotnofsky United Commercial Realty San Antonio TX

Nancy Reimann Realty USA Buffalo NY

Jorge L. Pagan Bismarck ND

Cheryl Dixon Dixon Commercial Properties Southfield MI

Gerald LaHay Levin Commercial Real Estate, LLC Atlantic CIty NJ

Andrew Joyner The Simpson Company Gainesville GA

Hal Alpert Alpert Commercial Real Estate Vacaville CA

Thomas Mertens Omni Development Albany NY

Louise Frazier Blue Ridge Realty, Inc. Knoxville TN

Chris Grear Colliers Nashville TN

Gregg Waller Long & Foster Commercial Vienna VA

Sam Perlman Adams & Company Sandy Springs GA

Samuel Zonfrillo KW Commercial Plainville MA

Phil Rose Twin Rivers Capital Charleston SC

Stephen Luta Stephen Luta, CCIM Cape Coral FL

Jon Matta MGM Realty Group Bedford NH

Beverly Keith Trinity Partners Raleigh NC

Michael Hui HMA Global Brea CA

John Floyd Crye-Leike Commercial Property

Management

Brentwood TN

Chris Wallace RC Commercial Realty Plymouth Meeting PA

Bradford Madrona Real Estate Srvs, LLC Seattle WA

CJ Snyder Ozarks Realty Flippin AR

Maire Herron AIC Jackson WY

Leon Titus CBRE Tacoma WA

Jeff Foster Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Newport Beach CA

Le Anne Thomas Paradigm Tax Group Woodland Hills CA

Aaron McDermott Latitude Commercial Schererville IN

Howard Meier High Peak Toronto UT

William Ellis Camden Commercial Real Estate Services San Antonio TX

James Weld Value Property LLC Las Vegas NV

Edison Vasquez ComReal Miami Miami FL

Patrick Bell Dunes Properties of Charleston, Inc. Charleston SC

Kelly Keesee KW Commercial Lubbock TX

Bob Rourke Premises Group Chicago IL

Peter Cotsirilos National Realty Network Arlington Heights IL

Scott McClave The Bascom Group Irvine CA

Jordan Wang Asia Pacific Capital CA

Brian Phillips Randall Commercial Group, LLC Oxford MS

John McClure McClure Partners Dallas TX

Mike Oliver Prudential Commercial Properties Billings MT

Russ Wehner Russ Wehner Realty Co. Denver CO

Richard Stern Midwest Commercial Real Estate, LLC Madison WI

Laura Hagan H4 Fort Worth TX

Dewey Struble Dewey Struble CCIM Reno NV

Walt Clements Clements Realty Advisors Glenview IL

Greg Clauson Coldwell Banker Commercial Destin FL

Peter Rasmusson Lee & Associates Elmwood Park NJ

David Dunn Sperry Van Ness / Dunn Commercial Arlington TX

John Khami Parkwood Properties Troy MI

Nick Eyhorn Coldwell Banker Commmercial Rick

Canup Realtors

Lubbock TX

Michael Armanious Keller Williams University Place WA

Justin Clark Caldwell Companies Houston TX

Randy Atkin Cushman Wakefield Commerce Salt Lake City UT

Andy Bell Anderson Bell, Inc. Atlanta GA

Hector Martinez River Oaks Properties El Paso TX

Alan Stamm Century 21 Consolidated Las Vegas NV

Brian Wolford Paradigm Tax Group Houston TX

Shawn Massey The Shopping Center Group Memphis TN

Stanley Watson Watson Real Estate Ann Arbor MI

Jeffrey Bentz Cassidy Turley Kansas City MO

Mark Howe Triangle Real Estate Group Raleigh NC

W. J. Cotter Absolute Investment & Realty Services Tampa FL

Paul Fetscher Great American Brokerage Long Beach NY

Rick Gonzalez Crosby & Associates Tavares FL

Anthony Marshall VIP Properties Rapid City SD

Soozi Jones Walker Commercial Executives Real Estate

Services

Las Vegas NV

Michael R. Bradley Bradley Commercial Real Estate Kirkland WA

Ricky Paradise NorthPoint Development Kansas City MO

Jay Steinberg Block Hawley Commercial Real Estate

Services

Chesterfield MO

Brian D Harris REOC San Antonio San Antonio TX

George Polydoros George Polydoros Co., Inc Houston TX

Ashley Elkin Studley Washington DC

Thomas Miller Miller Industrial properties Reno NV

Bob Hasan GE Capital Real Estate Philadelphia PA

Chris Spear ComReal Miami, Inc Doral FL

Marc Barlow Philip M. Barlow & Assoc. LLC Gilbert AZ

Lorin Schultz NAI Cummins Akron OH

Josh Randolph Colliers International Birmingham AL

Brian T. Barson Cornerstone Company Las Vegas NV

Ross Hedlund Frauenshuh Minneapolis MN

Alan Darner Kellogg Company Battle Creek MI

Bob Kane Bull Realty Atlanta GA

Todd Hamilton Cutler Commercial Scottsdale AZ

David Ashford Southpace Properties Inc. Bimringham AL

Dana Coronado KW Commercial Studio City CA

Page 32: Quarterly Market Trends: Fourth Quarter 2013

CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 32®

ContributorsTim Churchwell Exit Realty Central Commercial and

Special Markets

Norfolk VA

Lee Greer, Jr Sperry Van Ness Lexington Lexington KY

Karen Higgins WestMark Commercial Lubbock TX

Rob Borny HFF Florham Park NJ

Mike Carroll Sealy Realty Co., Inc. Tuscaloosa AL

David P. Ellermann Ellermann Commercial Brokerage Chicago IL

John Leonard Marcus & Millichap Atlanta GA

Patrick Doherty Carolina Commercial Investment

Properties

Wilmington NC

Anthony Rosetta Fenway Properties San Diego CA

Alex Rodriguez Commercial Realty Solutions Miami FL

Jeff Tompkins CBRE Denver CO

Tony Carlson Grandbridge Real Estate Capital Minneapolis MN

Mike Milovick Royal LePage Grand Valley Realty Kitchener

Bill Kutsogiannis Janus Realty Regina SD

Lily Seymour Gershman Commercial Real Estate st Louis MO

Charles Wiercinski McLennan Commercial Properties Park Ridge IL

James Schutter Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Chicago IL

Chandra Wright KW Commercial Vienna MD

Michael Martz Hayes Commercial Group Santa Barbara CA

Beth Chappel CBRE Stamford CT

Mike King Kidder Mathews Seattle WA

Gary Catterton Catterton General, LLC Charleston SC

Robert Riddle Riddle Associates, Inc. Chesapeake VA

Mary Martin Miller Miller Consulting Group, LLC Portland;Salem OR

Rosalie Keszler The Stone Group Austin TX

Robin Civish Voit Las Vegas NV

Simeon Spirrison Adelphia Properties Oak Brook IL

Bruce Kahn The Foundation Group Seattle WA

Dave Worden Windward Commercial Real Estate

Seervices

Half Moon Bay CA

Jennifer Pollock Synovus Bank Orlando FL

Margaret Larsen Larsen Baker LLC Tucson AZ

David Aikens KW Commercial Louisville KY

Dan Dowd Cole Taylor Bank Chicago IL

Gayle Berkbigler KW Commercial Austin TX

Jay Pittard Jordan REA Southern Pines NC

Joe Awad RE/MAX Leaders Denver CO

David Dunn Hike Real Estate PC Bellevue NE

Dan Messina KW Commercial Concord MA

Kent Taylor Taylor Commercial Real Estate Austin TX

Keith Thomas RE/MAX Parkside Olympia WA

Thomas Knaub Colliers International Phoenix AZ

Kim Reagan Priority One El Paso TX

Rob Millman Prudential Indiana Realty Seymour IN

Lee Wagner Site Selection Group, LLC Dallas TX

Jim Tucker NetWorks Commercial Real Estate Richmond VA

Jennifer Martin Sperry Van Ness Commercial Advisors Salem OR

D. Scott Smith Prudential Baltimore MD

Jose Maria Serrano New Miami Realty Corp. Miami FL

Shane Hoey Neil Walter Co Kent WA

Heidi Adams Sperry Van Ness | R M Moore Knoxville TN

Brian Erickson NAI Optimum West Des Moines IA

Susan Cerone Realtyusa Albany NY

Lang Motes ICO Commercial Houston TX

Allison Thompson Cedar Hill EDC Cedar Hill TX

Mike Stuhlmiller Stuhlmiller Realty Hayden ID

John Haney Trotter & Company Knoxville TN

Robert DiPietrae Hendricks-Berkadia Seattle WA

Ben Walin Commercial properties of maui Wailuku HI

Kevin McGowan Violet Tiger Corporate Real Estate

Services

Philadelphia PA

Jim Helsel Helsel, Inc., Realtors Harrisburg PA

Juan Teran Chapman Lindsey Commercial Real Estate

Services LLC

Tucson AZ

Paul Sipp Turkey Run, Inc. Columbus OH

Jeffrey W. Eales Birtcher Anderson Realty, LLC San Juan Capistrano CA

Eric Higgins Colliers International Birmingham AL

Lee Ehlers Investors Realty, Inc Omaha NE

Travis Newton Florida Blue (BCBS) Jacksonville FL

Melissa Molyneaux Colliers International Reno NV

Edward Herbert HCR Associates Realtors Nashville TN

Stanley Watson Watson Real Estate Ann Arbor MI

Bradley Alton NAI Commercial Edmonton

Michael Schout Cushman & Wakefield Waterloo Region Ltd. Waterloo CA

Nick Miner Orion Investments Scottsdale AZ

Todd Clarke NM Apartment Advisors Inc. Albuquerque NM

Jeff Tompkins CBRE Denver CO

Marc Veras RE Commercial LLC Green Bay/Appleton WI

Lisa Engel CBRE Camarillo CA

Nancy Fish Park Place Real Estate Kalamazoo MI

Tom Schmidt Colliers International Redwood City CA

PJ Behr CNL Commercial Real Estate Orlando FL

David Schnitzer Venture Dallas TX

Sherry Palermo Zann Commercial Brokerage Houston TX

Zachary Fleming Ryan, LLC San Antonio TX

Chase Collier Highwoods Properties Tampa FL

Gary Hunter Westlake Associates, Inc. Seattle WA

Kevin Bethea Realty House Commercial Properties, Inc. Fort Walton Beach FL

Bob Rosenberg Inve$tnet Inc. Sacramento CA

John Khami Parkwood Properties Troy MI

Christy DeVinaspre Western Idaho Realty Nampa ID

Edward Schmidt NAI MIAMI MIAMI FL

Holly Coats KW Commercial Amarillo TX

Brian Sorrentino ROI Commercial Real Estate, Inc. Las Vegas NV

David Gleason Van Eaton & Romero Lafayette LA

Brad Welborn Colonial Square Realty, Inc. Fort Myers FL

Matt MacCaughelty Cardinal Real Estate Partners Charlotte NC

Dalerie Wu STC Management Whittier CA

Kevin Lynch Sperry Van Ness Commercial Real Estate

Advisors

Chicago IL

Matt Eaton RE/MAX Commercial Brokers Inc Metairie LA

David Ford CBRE Cleveland OH

Eric Rehn Kennedy Wilson Properties Group Vallejo CA

Pam Rushing Coldwell Banker Commercail Mt West Salem OR

Topher Thompson CBC Thompson Realty Group Lincoln NE

James Roscoe High Southeast Venture, LLC Nashville TN

Ben Cherry Manor Real Estate St. Louis MO

Edward Bowden Virginia Land Ventures, LLC Richmond VA

Robert Avary Alta Commercial Real Estate Houston TX

Trent Grothues Pollan Hausman Real Estate Services, LLC Houston TX

Beth DuPont Winkler & DuPont Portland OR

Rick Clark Integrity Bank Houston TX

Page 33: Quarterly Market Trends: Fourth Quarter 2013

CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 33®

ContributorsAndrew Joyner The Simpson Company Gainesville GA

Dietrich Brandt Dietrich Realty Santa Cruz CA

Kathleen Boswell Coldwell Banker Commercial Charleston SC

James Palmer Re/Max Metro-city Realty Ltd Ottawa

Daren Hebold Lux Realty Group Portland ME

Dan Robinson Lidstrom Commercial Realtors Mankato MN

Julie Teague Columbia SC

Charles Parmelli Cassidy Turley Chatham NJ

Alger LaHood LaHood Realty Grosse Pointe

Woods

MI

Justin Neal The Viking Team Realty Longood FL

Gregory C. Cassel High Real Estate Group LLC Lancaster PA

Steven Martens NAI Martens wichita KS

Jim Williams REMAX Capital Inc Windsor

Homer W Hines HWH Properties Chesnee SC

Frank Weiskopf Realty Executives Maryville/Knoxville TN

Bobbie Mastracci Phoenix West Commercial Litchfield Park

Robin Santiago Kidder Mathews San Jose CA

Alejandra Matthes Re/Max Masters Glendora CA

James Kirby Walmart Realty Bentonville AR

Darrell Robb Encon Commercial Santa Fe Springs CA

Wes Schollenberg Avison Young Winnipeg

Harvey Kolin Corporate Commercial Realty Melville NY

Cindy Feinberg Feinberg Real Estate Advisors, LLC Allentown PA

Amy Mills Steve Fineberg & Associates, Inc. Bentonville AR

Dale Donovan KW Commercial Orlando FL

Angela Harwell Lakeland Commercial Realty, LLC Lakeland FL

Joe P. Rickett Douglas Advisory Dallas TX

Eric Wang Yuanta Asset Management Co. Taipei

Michael Sorrentino Century 21 Franklin Street Lenox MA

S. Susan Self Ritter Management, Inc. Irving TX

Raisa Galper Gardner, Realtors New Orleans LA

Burt Polson ACRES Real Estate Services, Inc. Napa CA

Carrie Spradling Walker Alley and Associates Shreveport LA

Dave Denton DAR Development Grand Rapids MI

Thomas Miller Miller Industrial Properties Reno NV

Patty Burns Fickling & Company Macon GA

Bruce Pearson John Hancock Financial Boston MA

Mez Birdie NAI Global Orlando FL

Jason Wilcox Raven Commercial Real Estate Kent WA

Michael Armanious KW Commercial Tacoma WA

Laurens Nicholson Lee & Associates Greenville SC

Jeff Franklin J.W. Franklin Co. Warrensburg MO

Gary J. Drechsel Eagle Realty USA Ledgewood NJ

Ed Kiesa CBRE | Syracuse Syracuse NY

Frank Thomasson Cassidy Turley Nashville TN

Ashley Chertkof Sperry Van Ness/RealSite Commercial

Group

Baltimore MD

Tom Larson RE/MAX Commercial Property Solutions La Porte IN

Erik Schwetje EWS Advisors Winter Park FL

Mark Klein Klein & Heuchan clearwater FL

George Spirrison Adelphia Properties Oak Brook IL

Brett McDermott Latitude Commercial Realty Schererville IN

Dan Smith Millridge Real Estate LLC Wake Forest NC

Rick McGraw Coldwell Banker/Tomlinson Group Boise ID

Dale DeBoer DeBoer Commercial Real Estate Modesto CA

Macy Ritter NorthPoint Development Kansas City MO

Hema Virani DJK Commercial New York NY

Lawrence L. Davis Benson and Mangold Commercial Easton MD

Roger Gray Capital Asset Properties, LC San Antonio TX

Casey Keitchen Bull Realty Atlanta GA

Blair Gilbert KW Commercial Exton PA

Will Barden Colliers International | Memphis Memphis, TN TN

Tatum Moore iCORE Global - Austin Austin TX

William Robinette Select Properties Company Hayden Lake ID

Kevin Geraghty Windermere Whatcom Inc Bellingham WA

William Butler Engel Realty Company, LLC Birmingham AL

John Simpson Jr. Prudential Simpson & Assoc. Fredericksburg VA

Michael Houge Transwestern Minneapolis MN

David Jackson The Jackson Company Frisco TX

Ralph Pace U.S. Bank Denver CO

AJ Dugal Century 21 Clemens & Sons Rocky Hill CT

Rich Rhatigan Atherton & Associates Shelton CT

Ryan Johnson Johnson Group Reno NV

Drew Basham RE/MAX Affiliates Realty Commercial Little Rock AR

James Marian Chapman Lindsey Tucson AZ

Hal Alpert Alpert Copmmercial Real Estate Vacaville CA

David Roth Remax Alliance Group Sarasota FL

Deb Stevens The Stevens Group Boston MA

Chad Heer RE/MAX Commercial St Paul MN

Michele Dugan Roundy's Supermarkets, Inc. Milwaukee WI

Steve Mitchell KW Commercial Jacksonville NC

Vicki Hodge Walgreens Wauwatosa WI

Lauren Rodes Colliers International Phoenix AZ

Paul Rosado Commercial Real Estate Broker Tucson AZ

Rob Lukemeyer III Baseline, Inc. Carmel IN

Matt Boehlke Regus Maple Grove MN

James Mangas Best Corporate Real Estate Upper Arlington OH

Robert Powell Powell Realty Advisors, LLC Dallas TX

Zach Schwarzmiller Coast Sperry Van Ness Everett WA

Jacob Grieser HC REIT TOLEDO OH

Rodney Gustafson Case Commercial Real Estate, Inc. Denver CO

Lauren Nasser Arthur Kowitz Realty Daytona Beach FL

Lois Williams The Rosemyr Corporation Henderson NC

Heather Trower RED Legacy, LLC Kansas City MO

George Polydoros Polydoros & Associates Houston TX

Clarissa V. Willis CBRE Miami FL

Aaron Goldmeier Hampton Roads Management Virginia Beach VA

M.E. (Mike) Eurchuk Realty Executives Meridian Edmonton

Bill Whitlatch The Whitlatch Company Visalia CA

Michael Roy Neil Walter Company Kent WA

Scott Pollom Cassidy Turley Indianapolis IN

Stephen Brown CBRE Limited Toronto

Todd Hamilton Cutler Commercial Phoenix AZ

Douglas K. Smith NAI Puget Sound Properties Tacoma WA

John M. Stone John M. Stone Company Dallas TX

Jerry Holdner Voit Real Estate Services Newport Beach CA

James T. Saint Halo Realty & Investments Corporation Las Vegas NV

Don Gabriel Ameribid Overland Park KS

Bobbi Miracle Commercial Executives Las Vegas NV

Doug McKinnon BankPlus Jackson MS

Patrick Gallagher Siegel-Gallagher Milwaukee WI

Arielle Dorman Kidder Mathews Bellevue WA

Tony Fluhr NTS Development Company Louisville KY

Page 34: Quarterly Market Trends: Fourth Quarter 2013

CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AND CCIM INSTITUTE 34®

ContributorsBrian Collins Post Office Realty New Braunfels TX

Bob Droubi Keller Williams Houston TX

Jim Tamblyn Colliers Internatinoal Southwest Florida Fort Myers FL

Derrick Stricker NAI Tri-Cities Kennewick WA

Jim Kirkpatrick CBRE Capital Markets of Texas Houston TX

David Johnson Mortgage Capital Investments, Inc. Nashville TN

Alon Hilton Price Price-CO Realty Partners Atlanta GA

Tom Norton FedEx Trade Networks Memphis TN

Jay Verro NAI Platform Albany NY

Geoffrey Faulkner NNNet Advisors San Francisco CA

Ben Fazendin Grandbridge Real Estate Capital Minneapolis MN

William Lewis The Lewis Group/CORFAC International Raleigh NC

Tarit Chaudhuri KW Commercial Txas Gulf Houston TX

Randall B. Boughton NAI Latter & Blum Baton Rouge LA

Tom Shelly Sunshine Commercial Brokerage, LLC St. Peteersburg FL

Tony Witt Cassidy Turley Dayton OH

Jerry Hempenius Com-Spec Properties, Inc. San Luis Obispo CA

Ricky Paradise NorthPoint Development Kansas City MO

John Rees Rees Commercial Little Rock AR

Andy Manthei KW Commercial Midwest Eagan MN

Darby Craddock CFO Real Estate Services LLC Winter Haven FL

Stasiu Geleszinski Sperry Van Ness Cincinnati OH

Glen Rickett SBC Realty Partners Billings MT

Vince Elder Coldwell Banker Commercial United Houston TX

Bobby Pittenger Pittenger Land Charlotte NC

Andrew Scearce Chodrow Realty Advisors Houston TX

Zachary Harrell Scott F. Harrell & Associates, Inc. Springfield MO

Danny Morales, Hartman Income REIT Houston TX

Thomas Brian Properties, Inc. Arlington Heights IL

Jeff Wilke Graham & Company Huntsville AL

Darrell Okada NAI Puget Sound Properties Bellevue WA

Tim Mills CBRE San Diego CA

Anthony Clayton Century 21 King Rancho Cucamonga CA

Stephen Bean HBCRE Lexington KY

Thank you to the industry experts who contributed to CCIM Institute’s 4Q13 Quarterly Market Trends.