Download - Project Cost Estimating Capability (PCEC) v2 Plans and Status · 26/8/2015 · Project Cost Estimating Capability (PCEC) v2 Plans and Status NASA Cost Symposium August 26, 2015 Andy

Project Cost Estimating Capability (PCEC) v2 Plans and Status

NASA Cost Symposium August 26, 2015

Andy Prince - MSFC/Engineering Cost Office

Brian Alford – Victory Solutions Team/Booz Allen Hamilton

Mark Pedigo – Victory Solutions Team/Booz Allen Hamilton

Mark Jacobs – Victory Solutions Team/TGS

Shawn Hayes – Victory Solutions Team/TGS

Richard Webb – Victory Solutions Team/KT Engineering

Victory Solutions MIPSS Team

Topics

• Where We are Today

• The Plan for v2

• Robotic Science

• Human Exploration

• The Way Forward

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PCEC Today

• Released Version 1.1.1 of the Interface and Version 1.2.1 of the Library (October 2014)

• 120 Confirmed Users

• Received Several Technology Transfer and NASA Group Achievement Awards

• MSFC Nominated PCEC for the NASA Software of the Year Award

• PCEC v2 Released Concurrent with the Cost Symposium

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PCEC v2

PCEC v2 is a Radical Departure from NAFCOM12/PCEC v1.1.1

→ Estimates to the NASA Standard WBS

→ New CERs for Estimating Spacecraft and Systems Level Costs

→ New CERS for Estimating Crewed Vehicles and Launch Systems

→ Radical Change in Modeling Philosophy

Victory Solutions MIPSS Team 4

NAFCOM CER Issues

• Non-Homogeneous Data Set • Input Parameters that are Statistically Insignificant • Subjective Variables have Significant Explanatory Value

– No Documented Process for Assigning New Design Values or the Management Rating Inputs

• Some CERs use Indicator Variables with only One or Two Data Points

• Oversubscribed CERs: Thrust Vector Control has 7 Data Points and 5 Input Variables

• In Several CERs Crewed, Crewed Launch Vehicle, and Shuttle Calibrated all Returned the same Costs

• Nonsensical Results: CC&DH CER Returns a D&D Estimate for an Uncrewed Launch Vehicle that is more than Two Times a Crewed Vehicle


Why NAFCOM Works



PCEC v2 Model Philosophy

• Use the Best Data Possible – Verified and Validated CASTS Data – CADRe Data for Spacecraft Model

• Total Transparency in the Analysis of the Data and the Development of the CERs

• No Cherry Picking the Data Points

• Minimize or Eliminate Subjective Inputs – Follow a Data Driven Process for the Derivation of Subjective Inputs – Allow the User to Follow the same Process for Determining Input Values

• Emphasize Quality of Input Parameters over Quantity

• Expect the User to Develop the Rationale for the Estimate – Know the Data

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Key Things to Know with v2

What’s the Same What’s New

• Look and Feel • General interface structure

and modeling-building principles

• Emphasis on ̶ Traceability ̶ Openness ̶ Modularity of code ̶ User-customization

• All templates follow NASA Standard WBS, expanded under 5.0, 6.0, and 8.0

• New & Updated CERs • Redesigned, tailored estimating templates • NICM “Integration” • Phasing Templates • Many small features to help when building

an estimate • Under-the-hood efficiencies to make it more

flexible and updateable

These will be discussed in more detail at the PCEC v2 Demonstration on Wednesday afternoon


PCEC v2.0 Interface

Primary Estimating Estimating Supporting Artifacts Artifact Info Estimating Artifacts

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Selection Details

Insert a CER • Access to underlying set of CERs • Used for inserting a single CER directly into a worksheet • Single- and multi-variable, Power and Linear CERs

Insert a Template

• Access to pre-built templates for using CERs in more than a standalone fashion ̶ Single-element Templates are 1 worksheet and estimate the

total cost of a subsystem/component (single line in a WBS) ̶ Multi-element Templates are 1-2 worksheets and estimate

multiple items (multiple lines in a WBS • Often combinations of multiple CERs and additional calculations • Sections for including sensitivity/uncertainty/risk

Link to a Model

• Models that are completely standalone and separately maintained • Often are multi-worksheet models with code involved in calculations • Results are linked or pasted from source model into a pre-formatted

template in a PCEC model • May be in different units and have different types of outputs by

default

Selection Details

PER • Mission-level phasing estimating relationships template from CAD-sponsored research

• Based on Rayleigh distribution • Output by FY • Includes ability to look at obligations

and expenditures

Beta Template

• Total-level phasing template using Beta distribution

• Distributions with sets of pre-defined shape parameters

• Output by FY, Quarters, Months

Beta Tables

• Set of Beta distribution phasing tables across for use across multiple periods and multiple levels

• Distributions with sets of pre-defined shape parameters


PCEC v2.0 Modeling Construct

PCEC v2.0 Core Estimating Artifacts

• Newly normalized from the latest launched missions available in CADRe • Recurring and Non-recurring costs by subsystem, protoflight approach • New model for estimating total, payload, and spacecraft PM/SE/MA/I&T • CADRe data

PCEC v1 Legacy

PCEC v2 Robotic

SC

PCEC v2 CASTS

PCEC v2 will • Existing PCEC v1/NAFCOM data, updated to primarily push

include new CASTS normalization • D&D and Flt Unit CERs, as before users through

these elements

• Re-assessed/normalized data from original NAFCOM data sources • D&D and Flight Unit CERs, with STH computed via CER or factor • New cost-to-cost relationships for Prime PM/SE/IACO/STO/GSE • REDSTAR/NAFCOM data + newly obtained OEM data

PCEC v2.0 Additional Artifacts

NICM VI • Core NICM CERs only (no schedule or JCL

FPC • Same First Pound Cost relationships or NICM-E) relationships/worksheets as before based on • System and Sub-system Level CERs selection of Analogous or Database Average • No information on CERs, regression data, • REDSTAR/NAFCOM data or risk statistics


PCEC v2 & NASA WBS

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NAFCOM & PCEC v1

• NICM • NICM Lite • PM/SE/

S&MA/I&T Model

• Robotic SC CERs

• CASTS CERs • PM/SE/

S&MA/I&T Model

• SOCM (v2.x)

• Factors

• CASTS CERs • LRECM (v2.x) • Launch

Vehicle Catalog (v2.x)

PCEC v2

• PM/SE/ MA/I&T Model

• Factors

• Factors from CADRe

• Percentage Factors from CADRe

• PM/SE/ S&MA/I&T Model

• Factors

• PM/SE/ MA/I&T Model

• Factors

• PM/SE/ S&MA/I&T Model

• Factors

Legend: • Robotic SC • Crewed and Space

Transportation Systems (CASTS)

• NASA Instrument Cost Model • Future

• Factors


PCEC Development Next Steps

• Integration / Incorporation with other Models – Liquid Rocket Engine Cost Model (LRECM) – Space Operations Cost Model (SOCM) – Operations Cost Model (OCM)

• Launch Vehicle Catalog • Other CERs / Models / Tools

– Ground Systems – PM/SE/MA/I&T Cost-to-Cost CERs

• Updates to CASTS and Robotic SC Elements • Easier entry of user’s own CERs in Interface • Support Review for more General Release Beyond US Citizens

PCEC v2.x development will involve re-engaging the PCEC Steering Committee to prioritize focus of development team


Summary

• PCEC v2.0 is a departure from the modeling construct in PCEC v1 and NAFCOM that will align with the NASA WBS

• New Robotic SC and CASTS estimating elements will drive us towards more defensible estimates due to transparency and lack of overly subjective inputs

• PCEC v2 will continue to evolve to include more estimating artifacts, enabling life cycle estimating and more user-customization of the data available via the Interface

For More Information

• Demo Session: Wednesday Afternoon (3-4pm, Room 105/106) • [email protected]


mailto:[email protected]


Backup

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