PRODUCING A PERFECT PV FLEET FORECAST

AT WHAT COST?

Richard Perez, ASRC

6th PV Performance Modeling WorkshopFreiburg, Germany

SolarAnywhere V4 --- NEW YORK – 24 HA

Deterministic metrics: MBE, MAE, RMSEFo

reca

st

Measure

Probabilistic metrics

P50P90

© R. Perez & et al.

Deterministic metrics: MBE, MAE, RMSE

Probabilistic metrics

“Perfect forecast” metric

SolarAnywhere V4 --- NEW YORK – 24 HA

Fore

cast

Measure

© R. Perez & et al.

SolarAnywhere V4 --- NEW YORK – 24 HA

Fore

cast

Measure

PV Fleets

Load forecasts

© R. Perez & et al.

© R. Perez & et al.

One year of data

SolarAnywhere V4Cloud motion vectorGFSNDFDECMWFHRRR

Validation

Single point : SURFARD

Extended area: Satellite

RMSE

© R. Perez & et al.

Single point2X2 (~Size of Massachusetts) 4X4 (~ size of New York) 7x7 (~ size of California)

Bondville

RESULTS

Hour-ahead

© R. Perez & et al.

Bondville

Desert Rock

RESULTS

Day-ahead

Single point2X2 (~ size of Massachusetts)4X4 (~ size of New York) 7x7 (~ size of California)

© R. Perez & et al.

Desert Rock

RESULTS

Single point2X2 (~Size of Massachusetts) 4X4 (~ size of New York) 7x7 (~ size of California)

Hour-ahead

© R. Perez & et al.

Desert Rock

RESULTS

Day-ahead

Single point2X2 (~ size of Massachusetts)4X4 (~ size of New York) 7x7 (~ size of California)

© R. Perez & et al.

MAPE normalized to installed capacity

Region dimension (km)

© R. Perez & et al.

BONDVILLE HOUR-AHEAD 4x4 REGION (~ New York State)

SOLARANYWHERE UNDERLYING MODELS

BONDVILLE DAY-AHEAD 4x4 REGION (~ New York State)

© R. Perez & et al.

SOLARANYWHERE UNDERLYING MODELS

%RMSE

%MAE SolarAnywhere v4

%MAE ECMWF

© R. Perez & et al.

Cost of a perfect forecast?Hour ahead

PV Curtailment

Battery cost ($/PV-kW)

© R. Perez & et al.

Cost of a perfect forecast?24 hrs. ahead

PV Curtailment

Battery cost ($/PV-kW)

© R. Perez & et al.

Cost of a perfect forecast?Model accuracy matters

Thank You

© R. Perez & et al.

HIGH PV PENETRATION PARADIGM

STORAGE

LOAD SHAPINGCURTAILMENT

GEOGRAPHIC DISPERSION

Cost of a perfect forecast?

© R. Perez & et al.

Perfect forecast operations

Hanford

Desert Rock

Goodwin Creek

Penn State

Bondville

Sioux Falls

Boulder

Fort Peck

NSRDB

© Perez et al.V1 V2 V3 V4

HISTORICAL DATA REAL TIME FORECAST

1998 6 days ahead

V1 V2 V3 V4

Solar Energy Forecast Validation for Extended Areas

Economic Impact of Forecast Accuracy

HISTORICAL DATA REAL TIME FORECAST

Cloud motion NDFD

GLOBAL SCALE MODELS• NCEP GFS• ECMWFCONTINENTAL SCALE MODELS• NAMHIGH RESOLUTION ASSIMILATION MODELS• RAP• HRRR

Operational NWP models

1998 6 days ahead

HISTORICAL DATA REAL TIME FORECAST

1998 6 days ahead