Prism 2.0:Preliminary Insights from EPRI’s Regional Model
Francisco de la Chesnaye,
Senior Economist, Global Climate Program
Carnegie Mellon Electricity Industry Center
December 8, 2010
Presentation Topics
• Introduction to EPRI and Prism 2.0
• Importance of Regional Details for Renewable Wind Generation
2© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
• Prism 2.0 Electricity Sector Test Drive
The Electric Power Research Institute
� Independent, unbiased, collaborative research organization
� Full-spectrum industry coverage
– Nuclear
– Generation
RD&D for the Electricity Industry
3© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
– Generation
– Environment
– Power Delivery & Utilization
� 460 participants in more than 40 countries
� More than 500 Engineers and Scientists with Major offices
and Laboratories in Palo Alto, CA; Charlotte, NC; Knoxville,
TN; Lenox, MA; and Washington, DC.
EPRI’s Prism / MERGE Analysis
� Released in 2007, Updated in 2009
� Detailed analysis of a possible
pathway to reducing CO2 emissions
across the electricity sector
4© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
� MERGE model provided economic
analysis to highlight role of technology
in reducing CO2 emissions in the US
� Cited in numerous national and
international publications
Why Prism 2.0?
• New Regional Economic Model
• Improved treatment of renewable energy
– High-resolution wind and solar resource data
– Full biomass model with resource competition
5© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
• Expanded demand-side detail
– Energy efficiency potential by region and technology
– Fully developed transportation module
• Full complement of environmental regulations
The Next Generation of EPRI Analysis
Regional Model Structure
Pacific
Mountain
NW-Central
NE-Central
M-Atlantic
NE
6© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
California
Mountain
Texas
SW-Central
S-Atlantic
SE-Central
Florida
12 Regions
• Dynamic model of overall economy
• Detailed electric power sector module
• Detailed energy use
Prism 2.0 Model Status
General Equilibrium
Macro Module
Electric Sector Module
PARTIALLY COMPLETE
7© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Electric Sector Module
CO2 Technologies
Completed
Env Controls
In Progress
Integration
COMPLETED by early 2011
Energy efficiency in industrial, commercial, and
residential sectors
Build out of electric transportation technologies
REGIONAL SPECIFICS
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REGIONAL SPECIFICS
Ca
pit
al
Co
st
($/k
W)
4000
5000
6000
7000
Coal with CCS (IGCC)
Nuclear
New Generation Technology Options:Capital costs vary across regions
9© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Ca
pit
al
Co
st
($/k
W)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Biomass
Coal without CCS (SCPC)
NG Gas Turbine
NGCC with CCS
NGCC without CCS
Solar (CSP) – West only
Wind
Net Inter-Region Trade Positions in 2007
Pacific
(+15)
NW-Central
(+8)
+2-8
NE-Central
(+66)
M-Atlantic
(+32)
NE
(-1)-11
-9
10© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
California
(-85)
Mountain
(+71)
Texas
(+8)
SW-Central
(-4)
-6
S-Atlantic
(-83)
SE-Central
(+3)
Net Exports in TWh
(source: EIA)
Florida
(-28)
Central U.S. – Significant Wind Energy Resources
• EPRI’s model has 12 years of hourly wind data (AWS Truepower)
• Identified 5300+ “utility-scale” sites of >100 MW each
11© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
each
• Exclusion areas
• 100 MW site minimum
• Distance to grid
• Terrain/wake
effects
$400
$350
$300
$250
National Wind Energy Potential Supply Curve* (excluding delivery costs)
Co
st
of
Ele
ctr
icit
y (
$/M
Wh
)
Generation Cost2007 Genby Coal
$400
$350
$300
$250
Levelized Cost of Electricity = (0.11 × Capital Cost + FOM) / (8760 × CF)
12© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000
Wind TWh (million MWh)
Co
st
of
Ele
ctr
icit
y (
$/M
Wh
)
*EPRI – AWS TruePower National Wind Energy Supply Curve
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
100
120
140
160
180
200
CO
E (
$/M
Wh
)
Texas (9.3%)
NW Central (47.4%)
Mountain (18.5%)
NE Central (7.5%)
NW Central
Mountain
Texas
Regional Wind Energy Potential Supply Curve
13© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
-
20
40
60
80
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
CO
E (
$/M
Wh
)
Annual Wind Energy (TWh)
California (2.7%)
NE Central (7.5%)
SW Central (4.9%)
Pacific (4.1%)
Mid Atlantic (2.9%)
Uneven Regional Distribution…. ~50% of Economic Resource in NW Central
Example Analysis for NW-Central Region
• State hourly load data for 2007 from Energy Velocity
• Hourly loads and wind output synchronized so driven by NW-
14© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
synchronized so driven by same 2007 meteorology
• Add 50 GW new installed wind capacity within region
• Rank sites by capacity factor, build best sites first
NW-Central
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
NWC Time Series from 2/28/07 to 3/7/07 w 50 GW Added
New Wind Data Captures Variability
Max for year near the 50 GW of capacity Minimum < 5 GW
15© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
MW
Wind
NWC Load
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
NWC Time Series from 8/9/07 to 8/16/07 w 50 GW Added
Anti-correlation of Wind with Load Creates Ramping Issues
The morning up-ramp
The evening down-ramp
16© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
MW
Wind
NWC Load
$400
$350
$300
$250
$200
80
70
60
50
40
National Wind Energy Potential Supply Curves* (including delivery costs)
Co
st
of
Ele
ctr
icit
y (
$/M
Wh
)
Ne
w T
ran
sm
iss
ion
Lin
e M
ile
s (
tho
us
an
ds
)
Delivered Cost with Existing Transmission
Generation Cost
Delivered Cost with New Transmission
Transmission Line Miles
To Deliver 1,000 TWh…
17© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
$150
$100
$50
$0
30
20
10
0
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000
Wind TWh (million MWh)
Co
st
of
Ele
ctr
icit
y (
$/M
Wh
)
Ne
w T
ran
sm
iss
ion
Lin
e M
ile
s (
tho
us
an
ds
)
To Deliver 1,000 TWh…• 260 GW of new turbines
~$650 billion~175,000 turbines
• 19 new EHV trans lines~$50 billion~13,000 line miles
*EPRI – AWS TruePower National Wind Energy Supply Curves
PRISM 2.0 “TEST DRIVE”
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PRISM 2.0 “TEST DRIVE”
Taking Prism 2.0 for a “Test Drive”
• How does regional detail impact the national picture?
• How to represent new economics of CO2 policy?
– Details and timing of potential federal action on limiting
New insights for the role of technology in a
carbon-constrained world
19© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
– Details and timing of potential federal action on limiting emissions remain unclear
– Without specifying a particular approach, we can simulate an aggressive policy with a rising CO2 price
– Leads to efficient allocation of abatement options
Emissions Reductions at Least Cost
• Actual policy mechanisms may not lead to a least-cost path (e.g. portfolio standards, regulatory mandates)
• Understanding the least-cost path is still a valuable exercise and can illustrate the interactions between technologies
$200
20© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Results are preliminary…further development in progress
$30
Rising at 5%
per year
$200
$150
$100
$50
$02010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
$ p
er
ton
CO
2
Prism 2.0 “Test Drive” Generation Mix
4000
5000
6000
Energy Efficiency*
Solar
Geothermal
Biomass
Wind
Hydro+
AEO 2010 Reference Case
EE and Price Response
Wind
21© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
0
1000
2000
3000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TW
h
Hydro+
Nuclear (New)
Nuclear (Existing)
Gas-CCS
Gas
Coal -CCS (New)
CCS Retrofit
Coal
* Includes new programs, technology, and behavioral price response
New Nuclear
Existing Nuclear
Gas-CCSGas
New Coal-CCSExisting Coal
$30 $38 $49 $62 $80 $102 $130CO2 Price $165
MERGE vs. Prism 2.0 “Test Drive”
Prism 2.0 “Test Drive”
Electric sector module only
TWh GtCO2
2
2.5
5000
6000
7000
MERGE with 80% by 2050 CapTWh GtCO2
2
2.5
5000
6000
7000
Energy Efficiency*
Geo+Sol
EE & Price Response EE &
Price Response
22© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
0
0.5
1
1.5
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Wind
Nuclear
Gas-CCSGas
Coal-CCS0
0.5
1
1.5
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Geo+Sol
Biomass
Wind
Hydro+
Nuclear
Gas-CCS
Gas
Coal-CCS
Coal
Tons CO2
Wind
Nuclear
Gas
Coal-CCS
Coal Coal* Includes new programs, technology, and behavioral price response
Prism 2.0 “Test Drive” Insights…2010-2025
4000
5000
6000
Energy Efficiency*
Solar
Geothermal
Biomass
Wind
Hydro+
AEO 2010 Reference Case
Wind
Efficiency and renewables grow
EE andPrice Response
23© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
0
1000
2000
3000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TW
h
Hydro+
Nuclear (New)
Nuclear (Existing)
Gas- CCS
Gas
Coal -CCS (New)
CCS Retrofit
Coal
* Includes new programs, technology, and behavioral price response
Wind
Existing Nuclear
Gas
Coal
renewables grow
Managed transition for
existing coal fleet
$30 $38 $49 $62 $80 $102 $130CO2 Price $165
4000
5000
6000
Energy Efficiency*
Solar
Geothermal
Biomass
Wind
Hydro+
AEO 2010 Reference Case
Wind growth
Wind
EE and Price Response
Prism 2.0 “Test Drive” Insights…
Post-2025
24© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
0
1000
2000
3000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TW
h
Hydro+
Nuclear (New)
Nuclear (Existing)
Gas- CCS
Gas
Coal - CCS (New)
CCS Retrofit
Coal
* Includes new programs, technology, and behavioral price response
growth slows
Nuclear and CCS begin to expand
New Nuclear
Existing Nuclear
Gas-CCSGas
Coal-CCSCoal
$30 $38 $49 $62 $80 $102 $130CO2 Price $165
Solar
Geothermal
Biomass
Wind
Hydro+
Nuclear (New)
Nuclear (Existing)
Gas-CCS
Gas
Coal-CCS (New)
Coal
ImportsCCS Retrofit
500
1000
1500
2000
TW
h
1500
2000
1500
2000
Total Energy for Load (after EE)
WEST MIDWEST
EAST
Coal
Nuclear New Nuclear
Import
GasGas-CCS
Prism 2.0 “Test Drive” Insights…
Regional Generation Mix
25© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050T
Wh0
500
1000
1500
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
TW
h
0
500
1000
1500
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
TW
h
Responses to CO2 policy differ greatly by region
Geothermal
WindHydro+
Gas Gas-CCS Coal-CCS
Wind
Gas
Coal
Coal
SOUTH
Coal
Nuclear
New Nuclear
Import
Coal-CCS
GasGas-CCS
600
800
Total US Wind Generation in 2030
(TWh)
16% of
total
0 20 40 60 80 100
Eastern
Seaboard
Great Lakes
New Wind Additions through 2030 (GW)
Prism 2.0 “Test Drive” Insights…
What if no new inter-region transmission?
26© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
0
200
400
Unlimited New
Capacity
Existing Links Only
11% of
total
Northern Plains
Southern Plains
(OK)
Texas
WECC
Unlimited New Capacity
Existing Links Only
Less wind, more regionally distributed
4000
5000
6000
Biomass
Energy Efficiency*
Solar
Geothermal
Biomass
Wind
Hydro+
AEO 2010 Reference Case
EE and Price Response
After 2025,
Prism 2.0 “Test Drive” Insights…
What if no new nuclear or CCS?
27© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
0
1000
2000
3000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
TW
h
Wind
Gas
Existing Nuclear
Biomass
Coal
Hydro+
Nuclear (New)
Nuclear (Existing)
Gas- CCS
Gas
Coal - CCS (New)
CCS Retrofit
Coal
* Includes new programs, technology, and behavioral price response
After 2025, efficiency
and renewables must further
expand
$30 $38 $49 $62 $80 $102 $130CO2 Price $165
What We Are Seeing … Initial Insights
• Near term response to high CO2 price likely dominated by renewables, efficiency and natural gas
– Coal retirements offset by new renewables, efficiency
– Natural gas fills any remaining demand
28© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
• Wind integration costs significant at high penetration
– New balancing resources required (transmission, storage, smart grid, PHEVs)
– Ramping impacts on thermal fleet � increased O&M
• Longer term, nuclear and CCS will be important
– Without them, rely on more costly renewables, efficiency
Next: Costs of Environmental Controls
• Identify primary near-term challenges for existing/new fossil fleet
– Air pollutants (SO2, NOx)
– Air toxics (Hg)
– Coal combustion products (CCPs)
– Water (thermal cooling, effluent)
29© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
• Develop a set of control technologies for each, and identify costs and performance characteristics using existing assessments
• With project funders, identify scenarios for potential Federal/State environmental control regulations
Likely to modify rate of transition in generation mix
Next: Energy Efficiency as a Resource
• Demand divided into distinct end-uses and sectors
• Supply curves constructed for each end-use in each region using EPRI EE Group’s potential estimates
• Each end-use will respond differently to changes in the wholesale price from reference levels:
30© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
wholesale price from reference levels:
– Different retail margins depending on sector
– Different substitution opportunities with capital, other fuels (EE Group’s dataset used to calibrate)
– Different service demand elasticities (i.e. substitution away from energy toward non-energy goods)
Develop demand-side to equivalent level of detail
Next: Fully-Developed Transportation Module
Passenger Cars / Light Trucks Local Trucks / Busses
60%of transport
energy
5%of transport
energy
31© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Long-Haul Trucks / Rail / Air Non-Road (e.g. ports, water)
25%of transport
energy
10%of transport
energy
Fuel Demands
Oil Electricity GasBiofuel
Prism 2.0: Forward on a Parallel Process
Detailed Analyses & Communication of Results
MODEL DEVELOPMENTElectric Sector Module- refine CO2 mitigation technologies- incorporate environmental controlsEconomy-wide Framework- build out rest of the economy- incorporate energy efficiency- incorporate transportation
32© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Communication of Results
Timeline
2nd Half 2010 1st Half 2011 Rest of 2011
- incorporate transportation-Other
SCENARIO SPECIFICATION- Environmental regulations- Renewable Energy Standards- Energy price sensitivities- CO2 Legislation and policies- Other
Contact information:
Francisco 202-293-6347 [email protected]
de la Chesnaye
Geoff Blanford 650-855-2126 [email protected]
33© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Geoff Blanford 650-855-2126 [email protected]
Vic Niemeyer 650-855-2262 [email protected]
Steven Rose 202-293-6183 [email protected]
Tom Wilson 650-855-7928 [email protected]
Revis James 202-293-6348 [email protected]
James Merrick 650-855-8616 [email protected]
34© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.Image from NASA Visible Earth
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