Print Market Overview: Employment – Markets – Technology
Prepared by Nick Waite, Head of Market Research, Smithers Pira
Introduction – Smithers Pira print research
EU commercial printing industry Printer demographics (employment, companies)
Impact of automation
EU print market trends Market overview
Print product/process trends
Consumables & equipment
Digital printing developments
Outlook
Agenda
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• Wide range of secondary sources consulted
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General methodology
EU28 commercial printing industry –
employment and enterprises, 2008-2014
Source: Eurostat/Smithers Pira estimates
130.134 124.177 122.950 119.589 116.976 117.709 114.637
798.010 726.334 724.360 696.311
653.004 627.485 620.842
0
200.000
400.000
600.000
800.000
1.000.000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Number of enterprises
Number of employees
Increasing automation leading to greater efficiencies throughout the print business, including in both administration and print production. Key areas include online printing portals (e.g. VistaPrint), photobook manufacturing, self-publishing – and also standard jobbing print items
Companies increasingly adopting workflow systems that gang jobs together, often employing one makeready for multiple jobs. Prepress becoming largely automated, with plates automatically generated by workflow system. A variety of jobs can be bundled on a single plate – possibly 6 business card jobs or even 150
Declining print demand since 2007/8 leading to business failures and redundancies
Print production process also becoming increasingly automated, with equipment taking instruction from admin side, normally enabled through JDF (job description format) from original order. Changeovers on modern sheetfed presses now taking less than 10 minutes for whole makeready, with minimal manual intervention required
Employment levels hit by combination of
declining demand and rising automation
German sheetfed printer with a presence across Europe – part of growing German trend of adopting web-to-print techniques, using large format sheetfed litho to print standard products, and ganging jobs together to share the cost (and time) of make-readies across several jobs. Standard paper stocks and process colour printing make sheetfed competitive
SaxoPrint
• Product lines encompass advertising print, packaging, commercial print and publication print (e.g. magazines)
• SaxoPrint business model based on providing high quality, fast turnaround and environmentally friendly production; has expanded over the years to become very cost efficient though economies of scale Recent Speedmaster XL acquisitions from Heidelberg providing efficiency at short runs
EU27 commercial printing output, 2008:
€61.3 billion
Sharp downturn in output in 2009 (down
12%) followed by more stable conditions in
2010/11/12
Annual € declines of 2.2% per annum, 2009-
2014
Overall decline of more than 5% in revenues in
2014 despite some more positive indicators
elsewhere
Some signs of stabilization in commercial
printing industry output after protracted
period of decline, but revenues down
again in 2014 according to Eurostat data
EU27 commercial printing industry output,
2008-2014 (€ million)
Source: Eurostat
61.265
53.705 52.415 53.108 53.564 50.614
47.984
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Other data points to stronger performance, with
decline 1.0-1.5% in P&W paper demand in 2014
Source: Eurostat/CEPI
000 tonnes
Eurostat data CEPI
2007 2009 2011 2013 2014 CAGR 07/14 % C, 13-14 % C, 13-14
Newsprint 11,098 9,186 8,999 7,987 7,802 -6.8 -2.3 -2.7
Uncoated woodfree 11,259 9,654 8,861 7,958 8,160 -6.2 2.5 1.0
Uncoated mechanical 5,503 4,965 5,179 5,070 4,693 -3.1 -7.4 -4.1
Coated woodfree 5,377 4,257 4,899 4,638 4,449 -3.7 -4.1 -1.5
Coated mechanical 9,082 6,246 6,633 6,000 6,205 -7.3 3.4 -0.5
Total 42,319 34,307 34,571 31,652 31,310 -5.8 -1.1 -1.4
EU28 printing & writing paper consumption by type, 2007-14
Printing ink demand down just 0.5% in 2014
Source: Eurostat
000 tonnes 2007 2009 2011 2013 2014 CAGR 07/14 % C, 13-14
Black printing inks 214 176 167 161 157 -4.3 -2.5
Other printing inks 1,039 886 834 809 809 -3.5 0.0
Total 1,253 1,062 1,001 970 966 -3.6 -0.5
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
2007 2009 2011 2013 2014
Black printing inksOther printing inksEU28
printing
inks
demand,
2007-14
Smithers Pira view
Currently finalising global figures for 2014
Preliminary view – European printing & packaging output down 0.3% to €165 billion Packaging & labels up 2.0% to €76 billion
Graphic print down 2.3% to €89 billion
Trends in EU28 similar to Europe as a whole – no growth in Russian printing revenues in 2014
Trends in European Printing & Printed Packaging Output,
2009-2019f (€bn, constant 2013 prices & exchange rates)
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
120,0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Graphic print
Printed packaging
Note: constant price values show market
data at 2013 prices, removing impact of
inflation and exchange rate fluctuations
from one year to the next
Source: Smithers Pira
European Printing & Printed Packaging
Output, 2009-2019f
140,0
145,0
150,0
155,0
160,0
165,0
170,0
175,0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
€ b
illio
n
€ billion, current prices & exchange rates
€ billion, constant (2013) prices & exchange rates
Source: Smithers Pira
European Printing & Printed Packaging Output by Print
Product, 2013-2019f (€ million, current prices &
exchange rates)
Source: Smithers Pira
2013 2014 % change, 2013-14 2019f CAGR (%), 2014-19
Books 6.77 6.43 -5.0 5.25 -4.0
Magazines 11.09 10.90 -1.7 10.04 -1.6
Newspapers 5.77 5.42 -6.1 4.20 -5.0
Advertising 24.65 24.35 -1.2 23.90 -0.4
Catalogues 5.21 5.00 -4.1 4.16 -3.6
Directories 3.18 3.02 -5.0 2.36 -4.8
Security 1.39 1.39 -0.1 1.38 -0.1
Transactional 3.20 3.28 2.6 4.12 4.7
Other commercial 29.66 29.08 -2.0 28.38 -0.5
Packaging 67.60 68.90 1.9 78.91 2.7
Labels 6.72 6.92 3.1 8.26 3.6
Total 165.24 164.69 -0.3 170.96 0.8
Newspapers
Source: WAN/IFRA
European mkt, 2014: €5.42bn
-6.1%, 2014p
-5.0% p.a., 2019f
European newspaper advertising
expenditure, 2009-2013 (€ billion)
20,43 21,37 19,98 19,64
17,36
0
5
10
15
20
25
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Smithers Pira
Magazines
Source: World Magazine Trends
European mkt, 2014: €10.9bn
-1.7%, 2014p
-1.6% p.a., 2019f
European magazine advertising
expenditure, 2007-2014 (€ billion)
94,60
88,30
82,12
92,46 91,26
97,24
93,40 95,71
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Source: Smithers Pira
Books
Source: Eurostat
European mkt, 2014: €6.43bn
-5.0%, 2014p
-4.0% p.a., 2019f
EU 27 book printing revenues by type,
2008-2014 (€ million)
2008 2014 % change, 2008-14
Books, total 6,561 5,292 -19.3
Books, brochures, pamphlets (excl. single sheets) 5,607 5,204 -7.2
Children's picture, etc. books 301 54 -82.0
Dictionaries & encyclopaedias 537 22 -96.0
Map books, etc. 117 12 -89.9
Source: Smithers Pira
Non-EU and Chinese share of EU book
imports, 2002-Q1 2015
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1,2015
% s
har
e b
y vo
lum
e (
ton
nag
e)
Non-EU, overall China
Source: Eurostat/UN
Catalogues
Source: Eurostat
European mkt, 2014: €4.99bn
-4.1%, 2014p
-3.6% p.a., 2019f
Source: Smithers Pira
EU 27 catalogue printing revenues by
type, 2008-2014 (€ million)
4.618
4.177 3.945 4.010 4.052
4.290
3.561
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Advertising
European mkt, 2014: €24.3bn
-1.2%, 2014p
-0.4% p.a., 2019f
Source: Smithers Pira Source: Smithers Pira
European printed advertising output
by type, 2014 (% share by value)
Brochures, pamphlets,
other promotional
38%
Direct mail 18%
Inserts 7%
Indoor PoS/signage
24%
Outdoor PoS/signage
13%
Other commercial
Source: Smithers Pira
European mkt, 2014: €36.8bn
-1.8%, 2014p
-0.3% p.a., 2019f
Source: Smithers Pira
Photobooks 4% Directories
8%
Info print 17%
Business forms
3%
Business ID 8%
Fin/legal 6%
Coupons, etc. 2%
Manuals <1%
Newsletters <1%
Transactional 9%
Security 4%
Cheques <1%
Others 39%
Other European commercial printing
output by type, 2014 (% share by
value)
European mkt, 2014: €75.8bn
+2.0%, 2014p
+2.8% p.a., 2019f
Packaging &
labels
Source: Smithers Pira Source: Smithers Pira
European package & label printing
revenues by type, 2009-2014 (€
million)
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.0002009
2014
European Printing & Printed Packaging Output
by Process, 2012-2019f (€ million, constant
2013 prices & exchange rates)
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
40.000
45.000
2013
2014
2019
Source: Smithers Pira
European Printing Inks Consumption by
Type, 2014 (% share by volume)
Sheetfed 12%
Coldset 19%
Heatset 12%
Gravure 22%
Flexo 25%
Screen 2%
Letterpress 1%
Toner 5%
Inkjet 2%
Total printing inks & colourants consumption: one million tonnes
Source: Smithers Pira
EU28 printing equipment sales by type,
2008-2014 (sold production, € million)
Source: Eurostat
2008 2009 2011 2013 2014 CAGR 08/14 %C, 13-14
Reel fed offset 2,008 1,106 523 521 364 -24.8 -30.0
Other offset 2,515 1,157 1,800 1,291 1,500 -8.3 16.2
Flexographic 443 365 548 535 610 5.5 14.0
Reel fed letterpress 127 99 82 88 78 -7.8 -11.4
Gravure 171 40* 138 161 165 -0.6 2.7
Other commercial printing equ’t. 1,010 864 1,590 1,711 1,641 8.4 -4.1
Postpress equipment for books 717 419 416 363 355 -11.1 -2.4
Press equipment 178 114 166 180 187 0.8 3.7
Total 7,169 4,164 5,262 4,850 4,901 -6.1 1.0
Note: *estimate, probably too low
European Sales of Printing Equipment by
Type, 2014 (% share by value)
Sheetfed 29%
Heatset 4%
Coldset 3% Gravure
6%
Flexo 13%
Screen 2%
Prepress 8%
Postpress 7%
Electro-photography 11%
Inkjet 14%
Total sales of new printing equipment: €5.32 billion
Source: Smithers Pira
Digital printing equipment sales forecast to grow by 5% per annum in current terms over the next five years, from €1.47bn in 2014 to €1.91bn by 2019. Inkjet sales to reach €1.12bn
Digital share of printing output to rise from 14% in value terms to 20% between 2014 and 2019. Volume share to remain below 4%
Focus will remain on short and short-medium run length areas like signage, but also print-on-demand. Strong growth in digital across commercial printing areas, labels and books. Packaging will emerge as a key target area for development
Inkjet to take share from electrophotography in mono book printing; growth in electrophotography here likely to be more value-driven
Digital printing
Océ VarioPrint i300 Series inkjet Printer Previously codenamed ‘Niagara’, the VarioPrint i300 is the first high-speed colour B3
sheetfed inkjet production print system, representing a new category of press
• Features patented ink, print head
and paper handling technology
enabling it to print on a wide
range of media, including
uncoated, coated and inkjet
treated paper
• Incorporates ColorStream 3000
inkjet technology mono cut sheet
VarioPrint 6000 series paper
handling system, and PRISMA
control platform
• Aimed to take share from cut
sheet digital presses as users
develop new commercial print
applications with the press, as
well as from high speed inkjet
lines
Ricoh Pro™ VC60000 • New high-speed production
printer from Ricoh
• Designed for high-quality
printing on standard
substrates, enabled by a
priming station that allows
standard offset papers to be
printed, and an inkjet coating
capability that provides
protection and enhancement
to the print
• VC60000 uses a new high
viscosity, high pigment loading,
water-based ink system,
drying rapidly at the surface of
a primed paper leading to very
smooth results.
HP High-speed Inkjet Corrugated Packaging
New 2.8m wide T1110 corrugated machine developed in conjunction with KBA, with a
speed of 183m per minute, equating to over 30,000 square metres per hour – the most
productive of any digital printing device
LANDA S10 Nanographic Printing® Press
• Deliveries of first, highly-anticipated Landa line set for next year
• B1 format press targeted principally at cartons and general commercial printing jobs
• Claimed to have lowest consumable cost of any digital printing machine – against sheetfed litho, it should be competitive up to 5-7,000 x B1 prints or around 30,000 boxes
Thank you for your attention!
Nick Waite – Head of Market Research
Cleeve Road, Leatherhead, Surrey, KT22 7RU
Phone: +44 1372 802115
Email: [email protected]
www.smitherspira.com
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