LONG TERM ELECTRICAL SUPPLY PLAN
STAFF RESPONSE TO QUESTIONS, ISSUES, AND
RECOMMENDATIONS MADE IN NOVEMBER 2004
Presentation to the Gainesville City Commission
December 13, 2004
2
WE RESPONDED TO:
1. Alachua County Department of Environmental Protection Technical Report (Nov 15)
2. Alachua County Environmental Protection Advisory Committee Recommendation (Nov 15)
3. R.W. Beck’s Report (Nov 15)
3
WE RESPONDED TO:(Continued)
4. Alachua County Board of County Commissioners (Nov 23)
5. Additional Issues - Biomass Estimates- Forestry Practices- Emissions From Open Wood Burning- New Emission Control Technology- Cost Comparisons
4
ADDITIONAL ANALYSES PERFORMEDIN RESPONSE TO COMMENTS
1. Additional PM2.5 Air Quality Modeling
2. Emissions From Open Burning
3. An Alternative Low Case Natural Gas Price Forecast
4. Sensitivity of Project to $200/ton Carbon Tax ($55/ton CO2)
5
RESULTS FROM USING RECOMMENDED* DATA WERE SLIGHT
ANNUAL AVERAGE PM2.5
0.038 0.031 0.038 0.037
9.6
15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Air QualityStandard
Ambient AirQuality
ActualOperations
FutureOperations
ActualOperations
FutureOperations
ug
/m3
* As recommended by the Alachua County Environmental Protection Department and Environmental Protection Advisory Committee
Original ResultsUF Data
Revised Results EPA AP 42 Data
6
ONE BENEFIT IS REDUCED PARTICULATE EMISSIONS FROM OPEN BURNING OF WASTE WOOD
Particulate Reduction -766 tons/year From Use Biomass
Increased Particulates 65 tons/year From Solid Fuel Power Plant
Net Particulate Decrease -701 tons/yearFrom Proposed Plan* Estimate based on amount of wood required to sustain 30 MW of baseload capacity. Assumes 50% would have been burned in the field.
7
NATURAL GAS PRICE FORECASTS
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
Del
iver
ed N
om
inal
$/M
MB
tu
Revised Low Range
AEO2004 Reference
Revised High Range
Apr-04 Low Range
Apr-04 Base Case
Apr-04 High Range
Historical Actual Prices
8
“RENT CAPACITY” PLAN SYSTEM EXPENSES
$0
$100,000,000
$200,000,000
$300,000,000
$400,000,000
$500,000,000
$600,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Year
Exp
ense
s ($
/Yea
r)
FuelOther ExpensesScrubber Debt Service
9
“Gas Build” Plan System Expenses
$0
$100,000,000
$200,000,000
$300,000,000
$400,000,000
$500,000,000
$600,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Year
Exp
ense
s ($
/Yea
r)
Fuel
Other
New Plant & Scrubber Debt Service
10
“Solid Fuel” Plan System Expenses
$0
$100,000,000
$200,000,000
$300,000,000
$400,000,000
$500,000,000
$600,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Year
Exp
ense
s ($
/Yea
r)
Fuel
Other Expenses
New Plant & Scrubber Debt Service
11
SYSTEM EXPENSES BY SCENARIO
12
RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC BILL (1000 kWh Consumption)
Solid Fuel, Gas and Rented Capacity Plans
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Year
To
tal
Res
iden
tial
Bil
l ($
/Mo
nth
)
SOLID FUEL
GAS
RENTED CAPACITY
13
ADDITIONS TO THE PROPOSAL PLAN*
1. Additional Ambient Air Particulate Monitoring
2. A Greenhouse Gas Fund For Local Projects
3. A Conservation And Renewable Energy Goal
*In conjunction with affirmative decision to proceed with the development of the proposed plan.
14
PROPOSED FUNDING MECHANISM: 1.5% of Capital Cost
Fiscal Year
Projected Spending
PlanPrincipal Draw
Greenhouse Gas Fund
2005 2.0% $8,388,696 $125,8302006 3.0% $12,960,536 $194,4082007 2.0% $8,899,568 $133,4942008 14.0% $64,165,885 $962,4882009 41.0% $193,551,810 $2,903,2772010 33.0% $160,459,171 $2,406,8882011 5.0% $25,041,356 $375,620
Nominal Total $7,102,005
Present Value Total $4,921,728
15
PROPOSED RENEWABLE ENERGYAND CONSERVATION GOAL
The following goal is attainable by Gainesville Regional Utilities if the proposed long term electric supply plan is implemented.
“Meet an additional 10% of our customers’ electrical needs through renewable energy and conservation by 2012”.
This goal is higher than that of any other electric utility in Florida.
16
Thank You
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