Third SIAP/ESCAP Management Seminar
for the Heads of National Statistical Offices (NSOs) in Asia and the
Pacific
31 January – 02 February 2005,
Bangkok, Thailand
Theme: Managing Change
What New Things Will NSOs Have To Do or How Will The
Same Things Be Done Differently
Day 1 (31 January 2005)Time Session Responsibility
09:00-10:15 -Opening
-Overview of the Seminar
- Overview of the Change Management Process, including the conceptual framework for the Seminar
- Break/Photo
Mr.Tomas P.Africa, Director, UNSIAP
Ms. Davaasuren Ch. UNSIAP
Prof.Dr.Aung Tun Thet, UNSSC
Module I – Understanding Change
10:15-12:00 - Presentation- Q/A- Group Work: “Critical Assumptions of the Action Plan and Considerations of Alternative Course of Action”
Prof. Thet
12:00-13:30 Lunch
13:30-15:15 Group Reports/Plenary Discussions/Conclusions/Recommendations
Coffee/Tea Break
Participants/
Resource Persons
Module II – Planning Change
15:15-17:00 - Presentation- Q/A- Group Work: “Securing commitments of partners and stakeholders and identifying coordination mechanisms”
Dennis Trewin, Australian Statistician, ABS
Participants
Day 2 (01 February 2005)
Time Session Responsibility
Module II – Planning Change (continued)
09:00-10:45 Group Reports/Plenary Discussions/Conclusions/Recommendations
Coffee/Tea Break
Participants/
Resource Persons
Module III – Implementing and Consolidating Change
10:45-12:00 - Presentation- Q/A- Group Work: “Identifying Monitoring Systems, including mechanisms and indicators for work progress”
Mr.Brian Pink,
Government Statistician, New Zealand
Participants
12:00-13:30 Lunch
13:30-15:15 Group Work (continued)
Coffee/Tea Break
Participants/
Resource Persons
15:15-17:00 Group Reports/Plenary Discussions/Conclusions/Recommendations Participants/
Resource Persons
Day 3 (02 February 2005)Time Session Responsibility
Module IV – National Strategies for the Development of Statistics
09:00-11:00 Presentations- “An Overview of NSDS”- “World Bank Initiatives To Improve Statistics”- “Issues related to the fundamental principles of official statistics that have to be considered in NSDS”- Q/A- Coffee/Tea Break
Ms. Frances Harper,PARIS21
Mr.Fred Vogel, Global Coordinator, ICP, WB
Mr.Heinrich Bruengger, Director, Statistics Division, UNECE
11:00-12:00 Panel Discussion Panellists, Participants
12:00-13:00 Lunch
13:00-14:30 Panel Discussion
Conclusions/Recommendations
Coffee/Tea Break
Panellists, Participants
14:00-15:30 Closing and Seminar Evaluation- Recommendations and conclusions; - Implications for capacity building; - Proposed date, venue, theme for 4th Management Seminar;- Evaluation and Closing Remarks
Participants/
Resource Persons
Expectations
CORPORATE LESSONS
So, we will be going through changeHere’s three lessons from large corporations to help you survive change….
So, the rabbit sat on the ground below the crow, and rested.
CORPORATE LESSON 1A crow was sitting on a tree, doing nothing all day.
A small rabbit saw the crow, and asked him, "Can I also sit like you and do nothing all day long?”The crow answered: "Sure, why not.”
All of a sudden, a fox appeared,
Jumped on the rabbit... and ate it.
CORPORATE LESSON 1
Moral of the story is….
To be sitting and doing nothingyou must be sitting very, very high up.
"I would love to be able to get to the top of that tree," sighed the turkey, "but I haven't got the energy.”
CORPORATE LESSON 2A turkey was chatting with a bull.
"Well, why don't you nibble on some of my droppings?" replied the bull. They're packed with nutrients."
The turkey pecked at a lump of dung and found that it actually gave him enough strength to reach the first branch of the tree.
The next day, after eating more dung, he reached the second branch.
Finally after a fortnight, there he was proudly perched at the top of the tree
Soon he was spotted by a farmer
Who promptly shot the turkey out of the tree.
CORPORATE LESSON 2
Moral of the story:
Bullshit might get you to the top, but it won't keep you there.
CORPORATE LESSON 3
A little bird was flying south for the winter.
It was so cold, the bird froze and fell to the ground in a large field.
While it was lying there, a cow came by
and dropped some dung on it.
As the frozen bird lay there in the pile of cow dung, it began to realise how warm it was. The dung was actually thawing him out!
He lay there all warm and happy, and soon began to sing for joy.
A passing cat heard the bird singing and came to investigate.
Following the sound, the cat discovered the bird under the pile of cow dung, and promptly dug him out and ate him!
PURR....
CORPORATE LESSON 3
The morals of this story are:
1) Not everyone who drops shit on you is your enemy.2) Not everyone who gets you out of shit is your friend.3) And when you're in deep shit,keep your mouth shut
Prof.Dr.Aung Tun Thet,UN System Staff College
Managing Change
“Change is not merely necessary to life. It is life“ Alvin Toffler
Current situation in the world
• One billion people live on less than $1 a day• Another 2.7 billion survive on less than $2 a day• 6 million children a year die from malnutrition before their fifth
birthday• Every 3.6 seconds, someone dies of starvation• 11 million children die – most under the age of five every year, and
more than 6 million of them from completely preventable causes like, malaria, diarrhoea and pneumonia
• 114 million children do not get even a basic education• More than 2.6 billion people lack basic sanitation• 5 million, mostly children, die every year from water-borne diseases
MDGs
1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger2. Achieve universal primary education3. Promote gender equality and empower women4. Reduce child mortality5. Improve maternal health6. Combat HIV, AIDS, Malaria and other diseases7. Ensure environmental sustainability8. Develop a global partnership for development
The Millennium Project Report
“First, each country should map the key dimensions and underlying determinants of extreme poverty – by region, locality and gender – as best as possible with available data.”
Country level processes to achieve the Goals, pp.24
Introduction
• Change is the singly most important element of successful management
• To remain effective, organizations (and individuals in them) have to adopt a positive attitude to change
• Ignoring or trivialising change can be costly
Change
• No organization is immune to change
• To cope with new external and internal forces, leaders have sought to fundamentally alter the way their organizations work
The change process involves Eight critical stages
1. Establish a Sense of Urgency
• Examine external realities
• Identify and discuss crises, potential crises, or major opportunities
2. Form a Powerful Guiding Coalition
• Assemble a group with enough power to lead the change effort
• Encourage the group to work as a team
3. Create a Vision
• Create a vision to help direct the change effort
• Develop strategies for achieving that vision
4. Communicate the Vision
• Use everything possible to communicate the new vision and strategies
• Teach new behaviors by the example of the guiding coalition
5. Empower Others to Act on the Vision
• Get rid of obstacles to change
• Change systems or structures that seriously undermine the vision
• Encourage risk taking and nontraditional ideas, activities, and actions
6. Plan for and Create Short-Term Wins
• Plan for visible performance improvements
• Create those improvements • Recognize and reward employees
involved in the improvements
7. Consolidate Improvements and Produce Still More Change
• Use increased credibility to change systems, structures, and policies that don't fit the vision
• Hire, promote, and develop employees who can implement the vision
• Reinvigorate the process with new projects, themes, and change agents
8. Institutionalize New Approaches
• Articulate the connections between the new behaviors and organizational success
• Develop the means to ensure leadership development and succession
• While there is no single source of change, there is a clear pattern to the reasons for failure
• Most often, it is a leader's attempt to shortcut a critical phase of the change process
• Certainly, there is room for flexibility in the eight steps that underlie successful change - but not a lot of room
Four Mistakes
The source of most failures of change
1. Writing a memo instead of lighting a fire
• Change efforts fail at the first critical step - establishing a sense of urgency
• Too often leaders launch their initiatives by calling a meeting then expect people to “buy-in”
• It doesn't happen
2. Talking too much and saying too little
• Most leaders undercommunicate their change vision by a factor of 10
• An effective change vision must include new, aligned behaviors on the part of senior executives
• Leading by example• People watch their
bosses very closely• Inconsistent behavior by
a manager fuel the cynicism and frustration
3. Declaring victory before the war is over
• It is important to celebrate results but underestimating the difficulty and duration of organizational transformation can be catastrophic
• If you settle for too little too soon, you will probably lose it all
• Celebrating incremental improvements is good to mark progress and sustain commitment - but don't forget how much work is still needed
4. Looking for villains in all the wrong places
• The perception that large organizations are filled with middle managers who resist all change is not only unfair but untrue
• People at every level are engaged in change processes
• The biggest obstacles to change are not middle managers but, more often, those who work just a level or two below the CEO - vice presidents, directors, general managers, and others who may have the most to lose in a change
• That's why it is crucial to build a guiding coalition that represents all levels of the organization
• All institutions need effective leadership, but nowhere is the need greater than in the organization seeking to transform itself
• YOU must be the change you wish to see in the world
Mahatma Gandhi
Four Dimensions Of Change
Understanding Change
Implementing
Change
Planning
Change
Consolidating
Change
Questions To Ask Yourself
Questions To Ask Yourself
• Have I involved everyone who should be involved?
• Do I and my colleagues really believe that involvement is essential for successful CHANGE?
• Has the case for CHANGE been communicated and understood?
• Have people had the necessary training and preparation?
• Have management layers been kept to a minimum?
Producing change
• Is 80 percent leadership - establishing direction, aligning, motivating, and inspiring people –
• And 20 percent management - planning, budgeting, organizing, and problem solving
• Unfortunately, in most of the change efforts, these percentages are reversed
Questions To Ask Yourself
Have I ensured that everybody knows what benefits are expected from the CHANGE?
Does everybody fully understand and accept the case for CHANGE?
Can I answer everybody’s vital question: “What’s in it for me?”
Will the planned CHANGES genuinely make people’s jobs more interesting?
What would I want done for me if my job was at stake?
Points To Remember
(1)
• Change should not begin until all key questions are answered
• Involve people in plans• Measurement is the key to realistic planning• People work best if they identify a change with
their self-interest• Long documents, long words, and long
explanations are off-putting• Objectives must be few in number and
unambiguous
(2)
• The likely consequences of change, inside and outside the organization, need to be considered thoroughly
• All key managers must fully commit themselves to the change philosophy
• Vital needs that must be supplied should be identified and catered for
• There needs to be regular liaison between all departments and functions affected by the CHANGE
• Everyone should understand the importance of treating others as allies, not enemies
• People at all levels are fully capable of understanding the business case for CHANGE
(3)
• Emotion cannot be countered by reason alone, but requires emotional reassurance
• Once trust is lost, it is very difficult to win back• Criticism is not necessarily mere resistance; it
may be well founded• Once the CHANGE programme is up and
running – and working – resistance will dwindle• In overcoming resistance, prevention is better
than cure
(4)
• Confronting opposition and opponents is a painful necessary
• If obstructive ringleaders will not reform, they will have to leave
• All senior people should develop the habit of taking and listening to everybody
(5)
• Self-criticism needs to be allied with self-confidence
• If people whole heartedly support CHANGE, they will become its ardent defenders
• Any set-up should be re-examined and improved periodically
Do’s and Don’ts
(1)
Do invite suggestions from everyone
Do hold frequent formal and informal meetings
Do involve teams in planning as well as implementation
Do manage people’s expectations with care
Don’t make offers people cannot refuse
Don’t keep unnecessary secrets or tell any lies
Don’t forget that CHANGES should improve organizational results
Don’t leave anybody out in the cold
(2)
Do promote comradeship among CHANGE agents
Do give CHANGE agents stretching tasks
Do encourage people to form and follow up ideas for CHANGE
Do listen to what CHANGE agents say about morale and reactions
Don’t assume that older people are too set in their ways to be CHANGE agents
Don’t discourage others by singling out CHANGE agents for special treatment
Don’t prevent CHANGE agents from using their initiative
Don’t create an atmosphere of secrecy
Additional Issues
Using Change Agents: Qualities of change agents
RealisticEffective Communication
Attentivelistener
Ideasperson
Goodcollaborator
Restless
Eager forimprovement
Emotional Reactions to Change
Time
Active
Passive
Em
otio
nal r
espo
nse
Stability at the Point of change
Inability to act Denial
Anger
Bargaining
Depression
Acceptance
Testing
Dealing With Negative Reactions To Change
Types of Negativity What to Do About Them
RATIONAL • Explain plan with greater clarity and detail
• Involve everybody
• Institute bottom-up programme
PERSONAL • Stress improved job prospects
• Accept managerial responsibility
EMOTIONAL • Show with examples
• Stage a series of meetings
• Demonstrate
• Explain the reasons for change
• Be honest
Studying All Angles of Change
External
Is the client satisfaction rising? Has the improved quality increased results?
Internal
Is the organization or department meeting schedules and targets? How is staff morale?
Process
Is quality nearing 100 percent? Can schedules be cut? Are innovations emerging?
Result
Is the financial position better?
Revision of a CHANGE programme
Implement CHANGE programme
Implement CHANGE programme
Measure resultsand obtain feedback
Measure resultsand obtain feedback
If successful,continue programme
If successful,continue programme
If necessary,revise programme
If necessary,revise programme
Individual Work
• Please write down on coloured cards
1. What NEW things NSOs Have to Do
2. HOW will the SAME things be done differently
• As the result of the requirements of MD/MDGs
The Truth About Coping With Change
Most People Resist Any
Change That Doesn’t Jingle
in Their Pockets
Resistance To Change
• Doesn’t surface in standardized ways
• Can be overt, implicit, immediate, or deferred
• Easiest for management to deal with when it is overt and immediate
• More challenging if it is implicit or deferred
Resistance To Change
• Organizations and individuals resist change
• In one sense this is positive since it provides a degree of stability and predictability to bahaviour
• Without resistance organizational behaviour will lead to chaotic randomness
Resistance To Change
• Is a source of functional conflict
• Can stimulate healthy debate
• Hinders adaptation and progress
Resistance to Change : Individuals
• Sources of resistance – Habit; Security; Economic Factors, Fear of the Unknown
• Habit, i.e., programmed responses helps us cope with complexities of life; when confronted with change this tendency to respond in our accustomed ways becomes a source of resistance
Resistance to Change: Individuals
• Security – People with a high need for security are likely to resist change because it threatens their sense of insecurity
• Economic Factors – Concern that changes will result in lower income; Fear that they cannot perform new tasks or routines especially when pay is closely tied to productivity
Resistance to Change: Individuals
• Fear of the unknown – Change substitutes ambiguity and uncertainty for the known; You trade known for the unknown and the fear and insecurity that goes with it
Resistance to Change: Organizations
• Organizations are conservative – actively resist change change through structural and group inertia and threats to member expertise, power relationships and established resource allocations
Resistance to Change: Organizations
• Organizations have built-in mechanisms to produce stability – systematically select certain people and certain people out, people are hired into an organization are chosen for for and then shaped and directed to behave in certain ways
• When the organization is confronted with change this structural inertia acts as a counter balance to sustain stability
Resistance to Change: Organizations
• Even if individuals want to change their behaviour, group norms act as a constraint
• Any redistribution of decision-making as the result of change threatens the long-established power relationships
• Groups in the organization that control sizeable resources often see change as a threat, those that benefit from current al.location of resources feel threatened by changes that may effect future allocations
What should the manager do?
1. Initiating change is an important part of the manager’s job
2. Expect resistance to change come in a number of forms
3. Prepare to undermine this resistance
How to undermine resistance
• Provide rewards for accepting change
• Communicating reasons for why change is necessary
• Including people who will be effected by the change to participate in change decisions
Use Participation To Reduce Resistance to
Change
Participation
• Having staff participate in decisions that affect them is no panacea
• Has only a modest influence on employee productivity, motivation and job satisfaction
• A potent force for combating resistance to change
Right conditions for using participation
• Adequate time to participate
• Issues are relevant
• Staff have the ability to participate
• Organizational culture support staff involvement
With the right conditions
• Participation can reduce resistance, obtain commitment and increase the quality of the change decision
You Can Teach Old Dog New Tricks
Age Discrimination
• Western cultures have historically been biased towards youth
• There is still a prejudice against hiring or investing in staff over age 50
• Part of this prejudice reflects the widely-held stereotype that older workers have difficulties with change
• Older staff are perceived as being inflexible, resistant to change and less trainable than their younger counterparts
These perceptions are wrong
• Older workers want to learn and are just as capable of learning as any other
• They may take longer to train but once trained perform at comparable levels to younger workers
• Age is found not to be related to learning and training outcomes
These perceptions are wrong
• Older workers are more committed in that they are less likely to quit their jobs that their younger counterparts
• They have lower rates of avoidable absences
• Workers 65 and over record higher job satisfaction scores than their co-workers aged 45-64
Group Work
Group Work Arrangement
1. Participants will be divided into four groups according to the attached group list
2. Four rapporteurs (one for each group) will be pre-selected
3. Group rapporteurs will report back to the plenary
Module I – Understanding Change
Group Work
Day 1 (31 January 2005)10:30-15:00
“Critical Assumptions of the Action Plan and
Considerations of Alternative Course of Actions”
Objectives
Participants will be able to:
1. Learn how to assess and validate the assumptions
2. Identify an alternative course of actions and key tasks assessing their feasibility
Expected Outputs
1. A list of assumptions for each tasks of the selected two actions
2. A list of proposed alternative course of actions for the two actions
Directions
1. Complete a worksheet “Critical assumptions and alternative course of actions”, in relation to the Case Study
2. Develop and propose an alternative course of actions in implementing selected two actions
Worksheet: Critical Assumptions and Alternative Course of Actions
Actions Key Tasks Outputs/
Outcome
Assumptions Alternative ways to implement the tasks
1. 1.1
1.2
1.3
…
2. 2.1
2.2
2.3
…
Day 1 (31 January 2005)Time Session Responsibility
09:00-10:15 -Opening
-Overview of the Seminar
- Overview of the Change Management Process, including the conceptual framework for the Seminar
- Break/Photo
Mr.Tomas P.Africa, Director, UNSIAP
Ms. Davaasuren Ch. UNSIAP
Prof.Dr.Aung Tun Thet, UNSSC
Module I – Understanding Change
10:15-12:00 - Presentation- Q/A- Group Work: “Critical Assumptions of the Action Plan and Considerations of Alternative Course of Action”
Prof. Thet
12:00-13:30 Lunch
13:30-15:15 Group Reports/Plenary Discussions/Conclusions/Recommendations
Coffee/Tea Break
Participants/
Resource Persons
Module II – Planning Change
15:15-17:00 - Presentation- Q/A- Group Work: “Securing commitments of partners and stakeholders and identifying coordination mechanisms”
Dennis Trewin, Australian Statistician, ABS
Participants
Module II – Planning Change
Group Work
Day 1 (31 January 2005) 15:30-17:00 Day 2 (01 February 2005) 09:00-10:30“Securing commitments of partners and stakeholders and identifying coordination mechanisms”
Objectives
Participants will be able to:
1. Learn how to identify What needs to be done, by WHOM, with WHAT RESOURCES, by WHEN and possible COORDINATION MECHANISMS
Expected Outputs
1. A draft of detailed Action Plan with the following specifications: WHAT needs to be done, with WHAT RESOURCES, by WHEN, and COORDINATION MECHANISMS
Directions – Each Group
1. Determines major components of the tasks and assign actors involved for the ACTION PLAN
2. Determines required key resources and examines the availability of them – financial, expertise, professional staff, facilities and equipment
3. Discusses the time frame to ensure that the key actors and activities are properly coordinated in time
4. Identifies and highlights in the Worksheet, the tasks for which no clear actor identified, unclear funding sources, capacity limitations of staff, other resource requirements could not be identified
Worksheet: Resources Availability Assessment
Actions Key Tasks Responsible Partners
Availability of financial resources
(1 … 5)
Low = 1
High = 5
Availability of professional staff/
expertise
(1 … 5)
Low = 1
High = 5
Time to complete the task
1. 1.1
1.2
1.3
…
2. 2.1
2.2
2.3
…
Day 2 (01 February 2005)
Time Session Responsibility
Module II – Planning Change (continued)
09:00-10:45 Group Reports/Plenary Discussions/Conclusions/Recommendations
Coffee/Tea Break
Participants/
Resource Persons
Module III – Implementing and Consolidating Change
10:45-12:00 - Presentation- Q/A- Group Work: “Identifying Monitoring Systems, including mechanisms and indicators for work progress”
Mr.Brian Pink,
Government Statistician, New Zealand
Participants
12:00-13:30 Lunch
13:30-15:15 Group Work (continued)
Coffee/Tea Break
Participants/
Resource Persons
15:15-17:00 Group Reports/Plenary Discussions/Conclusions/Recommendations Participants/
Resource Persons
“Change is Progress – except when it happens to us”
UN SYSTEM STAFF COLLEGE
The Principle of Exceptionalism
• While change elsewhere is desirable, we are a special case – immune from powerful improvement
Results-Based Management
The key is the Results Chain
RBM
RESULTS
INPUT ACTIVITY OUTPUT OUTCOME IMPACT
• Human• Financial• Technical
• Mgt
Seminar
• Number of participants• Positive
Reaction
• Increase in knowledge and skills
• Enhanced
Performance
efficiency effectiveness
ASSUMPTIONS
Remember
TELL ME I will forget
SHOW ME I might remember
INVOLVE ME I will never forget
Action 1: Develop provincial level poverty indicators Key tasks Responsible
partnersAvailability of financial resource
Availability of professional staff/expertise
Time to complete task
1.1 income and expenditure household surveys with increased sample size 1.2 tabulation and estimation by province
11. SCI*2. MPO*3.
MOSW*
1. SCI
4 4
4 4
2006-2008 (focus on 2007) 12006-2008 (focus on 2008)
* SCI: Statistical Centre of Iran* MPO: Managing and Planning Organization* MOSW: Ministry of Social Welfare
Action 2: Improve data quality
Key tasks Responsible partners
Availability of financial resource
Availability of professional staff/expertise
Time to complete task
2.1 review data collection methodologies
2.2 change of reference periods
S1. SSCI 2. MPO 3. ISS
S1. SCI
5
5
5
5
2006-2008
2006-2008
Module III – Implementing and
Consolidating ChangeGroup Work
Day 2 (01 February 2005)11:00-17:00
“Identifying Monitoring Systems, including
mechanisms and indicators of work progress”
Objectives
Participants will be able to:
1. Learn how to establish good monitoring mechanisms to achieve Action Plan objectives
Expected Outputs
1. Proposed mechanisms to monitor the ACTION PLAN implementation process
Directions – Each Group
1. Identifies and proposes measurable indicators for the results
2. Recommends monitoring mechanisms to give an on-going overview of the ACTION PLAN implementation process
3. Discuss what methods you will use to check progress
4. Discuss what methods you will use to measure the success of the ACTION PLAN implementation process
Day 3 (02 February 2005)Time Session Responsibility
Module IV – National Strategies for the Development of Statistics
09:00-11:00 Presentations- “An Overview of NSDS”- “World Bank Initiatives To Improve Statistics”- “Issues related to the fundamental principles of official statistics that have to be considered in NSDS”- Q/A- Coffee/Tea Break
Ms. Frances Harper,PARIS21
Mr.Fred Vogel, Global Coordinator, ICP, WB
Mr.Heinrich Bruengger, Director, Statistics Division, UNECE
11:00-12:00 Synthesis and Integration: Outputs of the Group Work and Critique-Bhutan-Indonesia
Mr. Tomas Africa, UNSIAP
12:00-13:00 Lunch
13:00-14:30 -(Continued)- Iran- Mongolia
Mr. Tomas Africa, UNSIAP
14:00-15:30 Closing and Seminar Evaluation- Recommendations and conclusions; - Implications for capacity building; - Proposed date, venue, theme for 4th Management Seminar;- Evaluation and Closing Remarks
Mr.Andrew J. Flatt,
UNESCAP
Being A Change Agent
“Boiling Frog” phenomenon
Frog Prince
• You have to kiss many frogs before you find the Frog Prince
Understanding the Change Process
• We need to be able to work with change at the very micro-level (persuading individuals within organizations to work in new or different ways)
• We also need need to be influencing the agenda at the macro-level – changing public opinions
Our Roles in the Change Process
Inside Outside
Up-front
Backseat
As Change Agents
• We need to consider two dimensions
• Our position in relation to the organization
• Our association with the change – either proactive or reactive role
Matrix of Strategic RolesInside Outside
Up-front Champion
Within the organisationSeen as a leader
Closely associated with change
and moving things forward
Activist
Likely to remain an outsiderFierce in supporting or
opposing changeHas strong views and
expresses them
Back-seat
Tempered Radical
Working within the organisation
Commitment to organisationWork with powers-that-be
Still passionate and committed
Messenger
On the outsideMay bring good or bad news
A Trojan horse?Not closely associated with
change –always at one step removed
Question
• How might you use the four strategic change agent roles in relation to NSOs