Population: Population Shrinkage, Rural Depopulation, Aging Society

Introduction to Japanese Society Week 2Philip Seaton

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0,000

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

140,000,000

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2018

Population of Japan

Now dropping about 200,000 people a year.

Population of Japan, 1872-2018

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Population Pyramid

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Source: "Statistical Handbook of Japan 2019" by Statistics Bureau, Japan

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Changes in the Population Pyramid

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Source: "Statistical Handbook of Japan 2019" by Statistics Bureau, Japan

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Proportion of Elderly Population

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Source: "Statistical Handbook of Japan 2019" by Statistics Bureau, Japan

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• Increased costs of pensions, care, medical treatment.

• Economic opportunities created by a genki, “leisure” class.

• Read the article by: Muramatsu & Akiyama, "Japan: Super-Aging Society Preparing for the Future".

Implications of an Aging Society

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Natural Population Change

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Source: "Statistical Handbook of Japan 2019" by Statistics Bureau, Japan

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• Encourage fertility.

• Prevent mortality.

• Immigration of the young; migration of the old.

• Don’t worry, be happy!

• Seek out the “depopulation dividend”.

Japan’s Options

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• Peter Matanle, "Towards an Asia-Pacific 'Depopulation Dividend' in the 21st Century”.

• National vs Regional vs Metropolitan depopulation.

• Japan’s urban hubs as population magnets.

• Why are we obsessed with growth, including population growth? Why aren’t we celebrating shrinkage?

The Depopulation Dividend

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• The end of demographic growth = the end of economic growth? But who needs growth?

• GDP as a silly measure of well-being or happiness in society.

• Let’s hear a talk by Kate Raworth, a visionary economic thinker.

• Video: “A Healthy Economy Should Be Designed To Thrive, not Grow” (16 mins).

Doughnut Economics

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The Doughnut

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Kate Raworth, Doughnut Economics: Seven Ways to Think Like a 21st-Century

Economist, p. 11.

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The Yubari Story

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0,000

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2019

Hokkaido Sapporo

4.4% 6.3%10.4%

25.1%37.8%

Hokkaido Peak: in 1997 at 5.7 million.

Now shrinking.

Sapporo’s relentless rise (over 1.955 million in 2019).

Hokkaido & Sapporo Populations

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Yubari

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A coal mining town in the mountains …

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… famous for melons …

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2007 Hollywood remake

Locations are still a tourist site in Yubari

The Yellow Handkerchief of Happiness

… and film …

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0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1895

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Population of Yubari

Developing coal town

War: coal a key resource

Postwar boom

1959: From coal to oil

What to do?

… and population collapse.

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0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1895

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Population of Yubari

Developing coal town

War: coal a key resource

Postwar boom

1959: From coal to oil

1980s: “from mines to tourism”

… and population collapse.

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Tourism Strategy

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Tourism Strategy

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Financial Folly

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2009: While crowds flock to the new Hanabatake Bokujo raw

caramel factory ...

... the area around the Coal Mining Museum is almost

deserted.

The Limits of Tourism

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0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1895

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2018

Population of Yubari

Developing coal town

War: coal a key resource

Postwar boom

1959: From coal to oil

1980s: “from mines to tourism”

2006: financial collapse

Financial Collapse

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• Underlying causes:1. Depopulation, aging population: increased demand

for services on a reduced tax base.2. Mismanagement: reckless spending on tourism,

financial irregularities, pork-barrel politics.3. Decentralization policy: Koizumi reforms (Trinity

Reforms 2003) shifts responsibility for local taxation onto local authorities.

Financial Collapse

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• A young, energetic mayor.

• A “compact city plan”.

• Shutting down wasteful sites.

• Attracting new business.

• Relocating the population to nearer the city centre.

• But, debt will continue for years … with a population of 50% over 65 years old (since May 2017).

Suzuki Naomichi (DoB 1981)Since April 2019 Japan’s

youngest prefectural governor!

Yubari Strikes Back!

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• Multicultural Japan – minorities, urban vs rural, prefectural characteristics.

• Suggested Reading: Handbook Chapter 2; Sugimoto Chapters 1, 3, 7; Hendry Chapter 4; Kingston Chapters 16, 19.

Next time

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