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POLITICS IN THE
AGE OF TRUMPDoug Sosnik November 6, 2018
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“If you look at the map of the United States, there is all that red in the middle, places
where Trump won," she said. “What that map doesn't show you is that I won the places that own two thirds of America's Gross
Domestic Product".
-Hillary Clinton, March 10, 2018
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Trump Carried 84% of the Counties in the United States in 2016
Source: Brilliant Maps, November 2016
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The Last Time a Trump County Voted Republican in a Presidential Election
Source: The Washington Post, May 2018
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Public Trust in Government Near Historic Lows
Source: Pew Research Center, December, 2017
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Americans Have Lost Faith In Most Institutions In Our Country
Source: Gallup, June, 2018
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Free Trade’s Impact on the United StatesWhich U.S. Regions have been most susceptible to competition from Chinese Imported
Source: MIT Technology Review, David Autor, August 23, 2016
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Since 1980’s, Labor Productivity and Real GDP Have Risen, Private Employment and Median Household
Income Have Fallen
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1953 1960 1967 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 2009
19
53
=10
0
Labor Productivity
Private Employment
Median Household Income
Real GDP
2015
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2015
| 9Source: Congressional Budget Office via the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities
INCOME INEQUALITY HAS BEEN INCREASING STEADILY SINCE 1980
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SOCIAL MOBILITY IS ON THE DECLINE
Source: Chetty et al, “The Fading American Dream: Trends in Absolute Income Mobility since 1940” via Brookings
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Access to Education Depends on Family Income
Source: Chetty et al, “Where is the land of opportunity? The geography of intergenerational mobility in the US” via Brookings
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Share of U.S. Population By Country of Birth 1850-2016
Source: University of Minnesota, August 30, 2018
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Trump’s Job Approval Rating Improving But Still Under 50 Percent
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18
49%-Disapprove
47%-Approve
Source: NBC-WSJ, October 21, 2018
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Trump’s Job Approval Highest with Republicans, Whites, Men, Older and Less Educated Voters
Source: Washington Post/ABC Poll, October 11, 2018
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Satisfaction With The Way Things Are Going In The U.S. Reaches Highest Since 2005
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jan-05 May-06 Sep-07 Jan-09 May-10 Sep-11 Jan-13 May-14 Sep-15 Jan-17 May-18
37%
Source: Gallup, September 17, 2018
Sep- 18
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30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18
Approval Disapproval
Trump’s Economy Job Approval Net Positive
Source: The Economist/YouGov, September 2018
50%-Approve
41%-Disapprove
Sept-18
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FEDERAL RACES
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The 2010 Midterm Wave Election — A Lost Decade for Democrats at the State and Local Level
Administration Job Approval Senate House Governors State Legislators
Clinton- 1994 46% -8 -52 -10 -554
Clinton- 1998 66% 0 +5 +1 +12
Bush- 2002 63% +2 +8 -1 +140
Bush-2006 38% -6 -30 -6 -334
Obama- 2010 45% -6 -63 -6 -729
Obama- 2014 40% -9 -13 -3 -312
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Congressional Generic Ballot
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Ap
r-9
7
Dec
-97
Au
g-9
8
Ap
r-9
9
Dec
-99
Au
g-0
0
Ap
r-0
1
Dec
-01
Au
g-0
2
Ap
r-0
3
Dec
-03
Au
g-0
4
Ap
r-0
5
Dec
-05
Au
g-0
6
Ap
r-0
7
Dec
-07
Au
g-0
8
Ap
r-0
9
Dec
-09
Au
g-1
0
Ap
r-1
1
Dec
-11
Au
g-1
2
Ap
r-1
3
Dec
-13
Au
g-1
4
Ap
r-1
5
Dec
-15
Au
g-1
6
Ap
r-1
7
Dec
-17
Au
g-1
8
Democrat-Controlled Congress Republican-Controlled Congress
41%
Oct
-18
48%
Source: WSJ/NBC October 17, 2018
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Fundraising for Congress, By Party
Source: Axios, October 18, 2018
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Spike in Democratic Congressional Candidates –Largest spike by either party since 2010 GOP Wave
Source: FEC. Chart: Harry Stevens/Axios, September 19, 2018
| 22Source: Center for American Women and Politics, Rutgers University
History of Women Running for House and Senate
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Republican 2016 Presidential Election Results
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen,
FLD+20
Dave Reichert, WA D+3
Ed Royce, CA* D+9
Frank LoBiondo, NJ R+5
Darrell Issa, CA D+7
Charlie Dent, PA R+8
Dave Trott, MI R+4
Steve Pearce, NM R+11
Ron DeSantis, FL R+17
Pat Tiberi, OH* R+11
Jim Renacci, OH R+17
Joe Barton, TX R+12
Lynn Jenkins, KS R+18
Lamar Smith, TX* R+10
Republican 2016 Presidential Election Results
Bob Goodlatte, VA* R+25
Blake Farenthold, TX R+24
Gregg Harper, MS* R+24
Kristi Noem, SD R+30
Jeb Hensarling, TX* R+28
Todd Rokita, IN R+34
Jim Bridenstine, OK R+17
Luke Messer, IN R+40
Bill Shuster, PA R+42
John Duncan, TN R+35
Marsha Blackburn, TN R+20
Raul Labrador, ID R+38
Evan Jenkins, WV R+49
Diane Black, TN R+49
Republican 2016 Presidential Election Results
Pat Meehan, PA D+2.3
Sam Johnson, TX R+14
Ted Poe, TX R+9
Lou Barletta, PA R+24
Rodney Frelinghuysen,
NJ*R+1
Thad Cochran, MS R+17.83
Jason Chaffetz, UT* R+25
Tim Murphy, PA D+13
Trent Franks, AZ R+21.2
Martha McSally, AZ D+4.9
Kevin Cramer, ND R+36.4
Orrin Hatch, UT R+17.9
Jeff Flake, AZ R+3.57
Bob Corker, TN R+26.15
House & Senate Republican Retirements
Source: Cook Political Report, September 2018 Note: Asterisks denote committee chairs
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Share of Two-Party Vote in U.S. House Primaries
Source: Axios, September 19, 2018
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2018 SENATE RACES9 Republicans, 24 Democrats, are up for re-election
NJ
CT
MD
MA
RI
VT
DE
GA (OPEN)
WA
OR
CA
AK
NV
ID
UT
AZ
CO
ND
SD
KS
OK
IA
MO
AR
LA
ALGA
SC
FL
HI
NC
KY
IL
WI
INOH
PA
NY
MT
WY
NM
TX
MN
MI
TN
MS
ME
VAWVNE
DEM seats won by Trump (10)
Democrat (26)
Republican (9)
2
Open Seats (3)
2
Source: Real Clear Politics, September 2018
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Since 1988 Voters Have Increasingly Voted A Straight Ticket For President And U.S. Senate
Source: Pew Research Center, June 2018
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GA (OPEN)
WA
OR
CA
AK
NV
ID
UT
AZ
ND
SD
IA
MO
LA
AL GA
SC
FL
HI
NC
KY
IL
WI
INOH
PA
NY
MT
TX
MN
MI
TN
MS
ME
VAWVNE
STATES WON BY PRESIDENT TRUMP WITH A DEMOCRATIC SENATOR UP IN 2018STATES WON BY PRESIDENT TRUMP WITH A
DEMOCRATIC SENATOR UP IN 2018
OK
KSCO
WY
ARNM
Trump Margin 6-10%
Trump Margin 0-5%
Trump Margin >15%
Toss-Up Senate Seats (3)
Source: Real Clear Politics, September 2018
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Solid D Likely D Lean D Toss Up Lean R Likely R Solid R
CA – Feinstein
CT – Murphy
DE – Carper
HI – Hirono
MA – Warren
MD – Cardin
ME - King(I)
MN – Klobuchar
NM – Heinrich
NY – Gillibrand
RI – Whitehouse
VA – Kaine
VT - Sanders
WA- Cantwell
MI - Stabenow
OH – Brown
PA – Casey
WI – Baldwin
MN – Smith
WV – Manchin
FL – Nelson
IN – Donnelly
MO – McCaskill
MT – Tester
NJ – Menéndez
AZ – Open
NV – Heller
TN – Open
TX-Cruz
ND – Heitkamp
MS- Hyde-Smith
MS – Wicker
NE – Fischer
UT – Open
WY – Barrasso
2018 SENATE RACES9 Republicans and 26 Democrats are up for re-election
Source: Cook Political Report, October 26, 2018
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Split Ticket Voting For President And The U.S. House Has Declined Significantly In The Past 25 Years
0
50
100
150
200
250
72 76 80 84 88 92 96 00 4 8 12 16
Democrats Pres. Candidate and a House Republican Republican Pres. Candidate and a House Democrat
Source: Pew Research Center, August 8, 2016
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2018 House Race RatingsDemocrats need to Pick up a net of 23 seats to Take Back the House
Likely D Lean D Toss Up Lean R Likely R
O’Halleran (AZ)*
Bera (CA)
Costa (CA-16)
Murphy (FL)
Peterson (MN)*
Open- NH 1*
Open- NJ 2
Gottheimer (NJ)*
Vacant - PA 5
Open- PA 6
Cartwright (PA)*
Rothfus (PA)
Open- AZ 2*
Open-CA 49*
Coffman (CO)*
Open-FL 27*
Blum (IA)
Roskam (IL)*
Yoder (KS)*
Open- MI 11
Lewis (MN)
Paulsen (MN)*
Open- NJ 11
Open- NV 3*
Open- NV 4
Vacant - PA 7
Comstock (VA)*
Dem
Open-MN 1*
Rep.
Denham (CA)*
Knight (CA)*
Open-CA 39*
Walters (CA)*
Rohrabacher (CA)*
Open- FL 15
Curbelo (FL)*
Young (IA)
Hultgren (IL)
Open- KS 2
Barr (KY)
Poliquin (ME)
Bishop (MI)
Open- NC 9
Budd (NC)
MacArthur (NJ)
Lance (NJ)*
Open- NM 2
Faso (NY)
Tenney (NY)
Balderson (OH)
Fitzpatrick (PA)
Culberson (TX)*
Sessions (TX)*
Love (UT)
Taylor (VA)
Brat (VA)
Open- WA 8*
Young (AK)
Hunter (CA)
Open- FL 6
Buchanan (FL)
Mast (FL)
Handel (GA)
Woodall (GA)
King (IA)
Bost (IL)
Davis (IL)
Open- MN 8*
Wagner (MO)
Gianforte (MT)
Holding (NC)
Bacon (NE)
Donovan (NY)
Katko (NY)*
Collins (NY)
Chabot (OH)
Perry (PA)
Kelly (PA)
Open – SC 1
Olson (TX)
Hurd (TX)*
Open- VA 5
Herrera Beutler (WA)
McMorris Rodgers-WA 5
Open- WI 1
Open- WV 3
Hill (AR)
Schweikert (AZ)
Lesko (AZ)
LaMalfa (CA)
McClintock (CA)
Valadao (CA)*
Nunes (CA)
Tipton (CO)
Diaz-Balart (FL)
Walorski (IN)
Bergman (MI)
Amash (MI)
Upton (MI)
Walberg (MI)
Hudson (NC)
Zeldin (NY)
King (NY)
Stefanik (NY)
Reed (NY)
Turner (OH)
Joyce (OH)
Russell (OK)
Open- PA 14
Open- TX 2
Open- TX 21
Marchant (TX)
Carter (TX)
Grothman (WI)
Source: Cook Political Report, October 30, 2018
*-Dem House Districts won by Trump
*-Rep House Districts won by Clinton
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STATE AND LOCAL
RACES
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NJ
CT
MD
MA
RI
VT
NH
GA (OPEN)
WA
OR
CA
AK
NV
ID
UT
AZ
CO
ND
SD
KS
OK
IA
MO
AR
LA
ALGA
SC
FL
HI
NC
KY
IL
WI
INOH
PA
NY
MT
WY
NM
TX
MN
MI
TN
MS
ME
VAWVNE
Open Seat (4 Dem, 13 Rep)
2017 Election (VA, NJ)
Democrat (9)
Republican (26)
Independent (1)
2018 GUBERNATORIAL RACES26 Republicans, 9 Democrats, & 1 Independent are up for re-election
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Republicans (26) Independents (1) Democrats (9)
Republican
Incumbent (14)
Republican
Open Seat (13)Independent Incumbent (1)
Democrat
Open Seat (4)
Democrat
Incumbent (5)
Alabama
Arizona
Arkansas
Illinois*
Iowa
Maryland*
Massachusetts*
Nebraska
New Hampshire*
South Carolina
Texas
Vermont*
Wisconsin
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Kansas
Maine*
Michigan
Nevada*
New Mexico*
Ohio
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Tennessee
Wyoming
Alaska California
Colorado
Minnesota
Connecticut
Hawaii
New York
Oregon
Rhode Island
Pennsylvania**
2018 GUBERNATORIAL RACES36 races, 17 are open seats
Republicans defending 8 seats carried by Clinton in 2016, Democrats defending 1 seat carried by Trump
* Clinton States (8) | ** Trump State (1)
Source: Cook Political Report, September 14, 2018
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2018 Governor Race Ratings
Solid D Likely D Lean D Toss Up Lean R Likely R Solid R
Open- CA
Ige (HI)
Cuomo (NY)
Open- MN
Wolf (PA)
Rauner (IL)
Open- CO
Ralmondo (RI)
Open- NM
Open- MI
Dems:
Open- CT
Brown (OR)
Reps:
Open- FL
Open- GA
Reynolds (IA)
Open-KS
Open- ME
Open- NV
Open- OH
Open- OK
Open- SD
Walker (WI)
Walker (AK)
Sununu (NH)
Ducey (AZ)
Hogan (MD)
McMaster (SC)
Open- TN
Ivey (AL)
Hutchinson (AR)
Open- ID
Baker (MA)
Ricketts (NE)
Abbott (TX)
Open- WY
Scott (VT)
Source: Cook Political Report, October 26, 2018
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2018 Trifecta States: One Party Controls the Governors Mansion and the State Legislature
10
22
2423
26
17
1112
78
23
17
14
20
16
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Pre-2010 Pre-2012 Pre-2014 Pre-2016 Pre-2018
Control of the States
Republican Democrat Divided
Source: Ballotpedia
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2018 Trifecta States
Source: Ballotpedia 2/7/2017
GA (OPEN)
WA
OR
CA
AK
NV
ID
UT
AZ
CO
ND
SD
KS
OK
IA
MO
AR
LA
ALGA
SC
FL
HI
NC
KY
IL
WI
INOH
PA
NY
MT
WY
NM
TX
MN
MI
TN
MS
ME
VAWVNE
GOP (26)
DEM (8)
SPLIT (17)
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APPENDIX A
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Chinese Tariffs Hit Trump Counties Harder
Source: The Wall Street Journal, July 6, 2018
| 39
Opioid Overdose Death Rates in the U.S.Death Rate per 100,000 Population in 2015
Source: CDC, 2015
| 40
Suicide Rates are Up 30% Since 1999
Source: NBC, June 9, 2018
| 41
Obesity Percentage Among U.S. Adults by State in 2016
Source: CDC, 2016
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