Petr Havlk & Michael Obersteiner + >30 collaborators
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),
Austria International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Kenya
University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna
(BOKU), Austria University of Hamburg, Sustainability and Global
Change (FNU), Germany Soil Science and Conservation Research
Institute, Bratislava, Slovakia Global Perspectives on Agriculture
and Forest Mitigation with Emphasis on Induced Land Use Change
Forestry and Agriculture GHG Modeling Forum, September 27, 2011,
West Virginia
Slide 2
2 In low stabilization scenarios LULUCF becomes the single most
important GHG emitter by mid-century For efficient mitigation
policy design global and comprehensive tools needed Global- Design
of globally consistent national baselines - Accounting for
potential international leakage effects Comprehensive - Capture
co-benefits and leakages across sectors linked through land
Slide 3
3 Outline I. GLOBIOM Presentation II. LULUCF Assessments III.
For further discussion IV. Conclusions
Slide 4
4 I. GLOBIOM Presentation
Slide 5
5 Global Biosphere Management Model Basic resolution: 28
regions
Slide 6
6 Supply functions implicit: production system 1 (grass based)
productivity 1 + constant cost 1 production system 2 (mixed)
productivity 2 + constant cost 2 Demand functions explicit:
linearized non-linear functions Partial equilibrium model
(endogenous prices) Agriculture: major agricultural crops and
livestock products Forestry: traditional forests for sawnwood, and
pulp and paper production Bioenergy: conventional crops and
dedicated forest plantations Recursively dynamic (10 year periods)
Maximization of the social welfare (PS + CS)
Slide 7
International trade Spatial equilibrium model Trade flows
between individual regions (BACI database, CEPII) Homogeneous goods
assumption - Within a region imported and domestically produced
goods are valued equally no mutual trade - Differences in prices
between regions are due to external trade costs Trade costs Trade
barriers (MacMap database, ITC/CEPII) +Transport cost (Hummels,
2001) +Calibration
Slide 8
8 Output: Production Q - land use (change) - water use - GHG, -
other environment (nutrient cycle, biodiversity,) Consumption Q
Prices Trade flows Main exogenous drivers: Population GDP
Technological change Bio-energy demand (POLES team) Diets (FAO,
2006)
Slide 9
9 Wood Processing Bioenergy Processing Livestock Production
Unmanaged Forest Managed Forest Short Rotation Tree Plantations
Cropland Grassland Other Natural Vegetation Energy products:
Ethanol (1 st gen.) Biodiesel (1 st gen.) Ethanol (2 nd gen)
Methanol Heat Forest products: Sawnwood Woodpulp Livestock: Cattle
meat & milk Sheep & Goat meat & milk Pork meat Poultry
meat & egg Crops: Barley Corn Cotton Supply chains
Slide 10
10 Land Simulation Units (SimU) = HRU & PX30 & Country
zone Source: Skalsk et al. (2008) > 200 000 SimU
Relative Difference in Means (2050/2100) in Wheat Yields [Data:
Tyndall, Afi Scenario, simulation model: EPIC]
Slide 13
13 Forests G4M Step 1: Downscaling FAO country level
information on above ground carbon in forests (FRA 2005) to 30 min
grid Source: Kindermann et al. (2008)
Slide 14
14 Forests G4M Step 2: Forest growth functions estimated from
yield tables Major outputs: Mean annual increment Tree size Sawn
wood suitability Harvesting cost
17 Herrero, Havlik et al (PNAS forthcoming) Non-CO2 intensity
of milk production
Slide 18
18 II. LULUCF Assessments
Slide 19
19 Model cluster approach
Slide 20
20 G4M - Spatially explicit results
Slide 21
Recent applied projects (Highlights) DG Climate Action: EU
LULUCF Reference Level for Forest Management accounting Baseline
runs for the construction of country specific Reference Levels
Accounting of emissions from FM will compare development of
emissions from forestry against RL - Reviewed by UNFCCC DG Climate
Action: EU Roadmap for moving to a low-carbon economy in 2050 -
Contribution to the impact assessment DECC (UK, Depatment of energy
and climate change), DEA (Dannish Energy Agency) Global Forestry
Emissions Projections and Abatement Costs Feeding MACCs for
forestry activities into GLOCAF model World Bank: Congo Basin WWF
Living Forest Report Packard Foundation: USA climate policies
international leakage 21
Slide 22
Slide 23
DO NOTHING scenario Projected forest area
Slide 24
DO NOTHING scenario Projected tropical deforestation
Slide 25
TARGET Zero Net Deforestation and Forest Degradation by 2020
(ZNDD) REDD policy scenario
Slide 26
Diet ShiftBioenergy PlusPro-NaturePro-Nature Plus Alternative
futures scenarios
Slide 27
Diet ShiftBioenergy PlusPro-NaturePro-Nature Plus
Slide 28
Diet ShiftBioenergy PlusPro-NaturePro-Nature Plus
Slide 29
Diet ShiftBioenergy PlusPro-NaturePro-Nature Plus Kapos et al.
(2008)
Slide 30
Total land cover change (2010-2050)
Slide 31
Agricultural commodity prices compared to DO NOTHING
Slide 32
Agricultural input use compared to DO NOTHING
Slide 33
33 A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in
2050
Slide 34
34 GLOBAL GHG emissions from agriculture and gross
deforestation Global baseline - globally no additional climate
action is undertaken up to 2050. The EU implements the climate and
energy package but nothing additional is undertaken. Global Action
- global action that leads to a reduction of global emissions of
50% by 2050 compared to 1990
Slide 35
35 EU27 Alternative LULUCF emission pathways
Slide 36
36 Packard: International leakage effects of US biofuels
policies Total LUC Fertilizer use LivestockSub-TOTAL Fossil fuel
replacement TOTAL BioenScen_50-32176914783182-2662916
BioenScen_75-30179214463178-3962781
BioenScen_100-24183014403223-5312692
BioenScen_1258188914323337-6682669
BioenScen_15012195614323412-8102602 US cumulative GHG emissions
from agriculture and LUC over 2000-2050 [MtCO2eq] preliminary
results
Slide 37
37 Total LUC Fertilizer use LivestockSub-TOTAL Fossil fuel
replacement TOTAL BioenScen_5011556167852027848619-132947290
BioenScen_7511666168322031548814-147647338
BioenScen_10011745169032032248970-162847342
BioenScen_12511859169732033649167-178147386
BioenScen_15011985170772036049422-194147482 Packard: International
leakage effects of US biofuels policies World cumulative GHG
emissions from agriculture and LUC over 2000-2050 [MtCO2eq]
preliminary results
Slide 38
38 III. For further discussion
Slide 39
W. Africa 1966 pastoral system 2004 crop-livestock system
Courtesy of B. Gerard What is the potential contribution of LPS
change to food security, land sparing and GHG reduction?
Slide 40
40 Total abatement calorie cost (TACC) curves for different
policy options by 2030 Herrero, Havlik et al (PNAS
forthcoming)
Slide 41
41 IV. CONCLUSIONS
Slide 42
42 Bottom-up modeling of global agriculture and forestry
sectors becoming feasible through integration of economic and
bio-physical models REDD still appears as the low hanging fruit
Sustainable intensification can provide benefits in terms of food
security, reduced LUC, and GHG emissions Not only intensification
but also reduction of yield volatility can act as land sparing
measure in view of extreme weather events Large uncertainties in
very basic datasets need to be properly handled