Peak Oil – Myth Peak Oil – Myth or Menace?or Menace?
Models to help understand Models to help understand peak oilpeak oil
Dr. Robert J. BrechaDr. Robert J. Brecha
University of DaytonUniversity of DaytonChautauqua Course, May 24-26, 2007
US-48 ProductionUS-48 Production
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Year
Pro
du
ctio
n,
Mil
lio
n b
arre
ls/y
ear
Alaska to the Rescue?Alaska to the Rescue?
US Energy Information Agency: http://www.eia.doe.gov
United States Oil Production
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
400018
57
1867
1877
1887
1897
1907
1917
1927
1937
1947
1957
1967
1977
1987
1997
2007
Year
Mill
ion
bar
rels
per
yea
r
Alaska
US-48
Many Countries Have Many Countries Have Peaked!Peaked!
US
UK
Indonesia
Iran?
http://www.bp.com
Venezuela
Association for the Study of Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO)Peak Oil (ASPO)
OPEC Proved Crude Oil OPEC Proved Crude Oil ReservesReserves
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
90019
80
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Gb
bl
rese
rves
UAE
Venezuela
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
Iraq
Iran
Energy Information Agency, posted March 2005, January 1, 1980 - January 1, 2005 Estimates
GaussianGaussian
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Year
Mil
lio
n b
arr
els
pe
r y
ea
r
Gaussian Fit to US Gaussian Fit to US ProductionProduction
Gaussian Production(quadratic fit)
y = -0.0003x2 + 1.1875x - 1167.5
R2 = 0.9898
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Lo
gar
ith
m o
f p
rod
uct
ion
Peak ModelsPeak Models
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
18
50
19
00
19
50
20
00
20
50
21
00
21
50
Year
Bill
ion
ba
rre
ls p
er
ye
ar
BP
USGS
Cumulative Discovery and Cumulative Discovery and ProductionProduction
US Geological Survey US Geological Survey EstimatesEstimates
www.ihs.com
Bentley, Global Oil and Gas Depletion – an Overview, Energy Policy 30 (2002)
Rough Outline of the Rough Outline of the FutureFuture
USGS published reserve estimates in USGS published reserve estimates in 19981998
EIA uses those estimates, along with EIA uses those estimates, along with consumption patterns to predict future consumption patterns to predict future growthgrowth
A gap between predicted demand and A gap between predicted demand and predicted production appears by 2030predicted production appears by 2030
Gap is to be filled with a) Saudi Arabia Gap is to be filled with a) Saudi Arabia producing >17 MMbbl/day, and b) producing >17 MMbbl/day, and b) “unidentified unconventional” sources“unidentified unconventional” sources
Logistic CurveLogistic CurveLogistic Curve
0
50
100
150
200
250
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Gb
bl
tota
l p
rod
uct
ion
Logistic Curve
0
50
100
150
200
250
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Gb
bl
tota
l p
rod
uct
ion
1980 Prediction
Logistic Curve
0
50
100
150
200
250
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Gb
bl
tota
l p
rod
uct
ion
“Economic” argument: We will alwaysfind more and increase ultimate recovered amount
= kQ(1 – Q/Q∞)dQdt
Problem with Logistic Problem with Logistic CurvesCurves
At early stages, curves for widely differing total amounts may look very similar.
There are too many free fitting parameters
The Point Remains …The Point Remains …US 48 Oil Production
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1860 1910 1960 2010 2060
Th
ou
san
d b
arre
ls p
er d
ay
Hubbert LinearizationHubbert Linearization
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/1/11/6047/13568
Q (Gbbl)
P = kQ(1 – Q/Q∞)
HL - TexasHL - TexasUS 48 Hubbert Linearization
0.0000
0.0100
0.0200
0.0300
0.0400
0.0500
0.0600
0.0700
0.0800
0.0900
0.1000
0 50 100 150 200 250
Q (Gbbl)
P/Q
HL - WorldHL - World
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.10
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Q (Gb)
P/Q
(ye
ar-1
)
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.05
500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200
Q (Gb)
P/Q
(ye
ar-1
)
One Prediction (1998)One Prediction (1998)
R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist,“Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production,” Natural Resources Research 8, 219-233 (1999). Also by the same authors: “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle” http://www.dieoff.com/page133.pdf
Duncan and Youngquist Duncan and Youngquist PredictionsPredictions
Peaked prior to 1997Peaked prior to 1997 14 14 countriescountries
Recovered from peak after 1997Recovered from peak after 1997 0 countries0 countries
Predicted to peak 1998-2005Predicted to peak 1998-2005 16 16 countriescountries
Actually peaked between 1998-Actually peaked between 1998-20052005
11 11 countriescountries
Predicted to peak after 2005Predicted to peak after 2005 13 13 countriescountries
Predicted to peak after 2005, Predicted to peak after 2005, but have already peakedbut have already peaked
2 countries2 countries
Finding NorwaysFinding Norways
R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist, “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle”http://www.dieoff.com/page133.pdf
Matthew Simmons – “Twilight in the Desert”
2/3 !
Keep Watching…Keep Watching…World Oil Supply
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
Mar-97
Jul-98
Dec-99
Apr-01
Sep-02
Jan-04
May-05
Oct-06
Feb-08
Year
Pro
du
ctio
n M
Mb
/d
$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90$100
SummarySummary
Believe “official predictions”Believe “official predictions” Gaussian fittingGaussian fitting Logistic modelLogistic model
CumulativeCumulative YearlyYearly LinearizationLinearization
Country-by-country watchCountry-by-country watch Monthly dataMonthly data