Oxfordshire County Council Population forecasts May 2015 Update Summary report
Oxfordshire Insight
For full data and copies of this report, visit: www.oxfordshire.gov.uk/insight
Contents Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 3
Key facts ............................................................................................................................................... 4
Growth: .......................................................................................................................................... 4
Age profile changes ........................................................................................................................ 4
Growth................................................................................................................................................... 5
Age structure changes ......................................................................................................................... 11
Household formation and marital status............................................................................................... 12
Future households in Oxfordshire: older age groups ........................................................................... 14
Life expectancy ................................................................................................................................... 16
Factors leading to these population changes (components of change) ................................................ 17
Annexe 1: FAQs .................................................................................................................................. 18
Annexe 2 – Inputs ............................................................................................................................... 20
Introduction
This report introduces the population forecasts released by Oxfordshire County Council’s
Research and Intelligence Unit in May 2015. These are a minor update of previous forecasts,
in particular reflecting significant changes in national fertility expectations (those published by
ONS).
This release precedes the publication of finalised Local Plans by District local authorities in
Oxfordshire that reflect their response to the 2014 Oxfordshire Strategic Housing Market
Assessment. This release is based on pre-SHMA Plans. It is anticipated that revised Plans will
contain significantly more housing (reflecting the SHMA), which will generally raise future
population forecasts above the figures in this release. However, these forecasts remain the
best indication of likely population change in the coming five year period, and the only
indication of likely change at sub-district level. Please see our website
(www.oxfordshire.gov.uk/insight) to keep up to date with the latest information and to access
the forecasts.
You can find more information about the “inputs” that these forecasts are based upon (the
pieces of information that provide the evidence for them) in the annexe, including a summary
of housing development expectations. As with any forecast, this release will inevitably be
proved “wrong” to some extent: there is no crystal ball enabling us to know the future. Rather,
these forecasts show the changes in the population that will happen if the factors that affect
population size and mix (fertility, mortality, and migration) follow current expectations. We
update our forecasts as-and-when new evidence about what to expect in the future is
available.
Acknowledgements
We are grateful to our colleagues at Oxford City Council, West Oxford District Council,
Cherwell District Council, South Oxfordshire District Council, and Vale of White Horse District
council, for sharing information on planned developments – without this the forecasts would
not be possible.
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Key facts
These forecasts (for Oxfordshire, its districts, and wards) show the change in Oxfordshire’s
population from 2014 to 2026 to expect if current proposals for housing development (pre-
SHMA district local plans) are realised.
Growth: Oxfordshire’s total population is forecast to grow by 86,000 (13%) in the next 11
years, from 668,000 residents in 2014, to 754,000 in 2026. This is higher growth than
projected in ONS’ 2012-based Subnational Population Projections: a difference of 39,000
people by 2026. This is partly due to these forecasts taking into account housing supply
growth trajectories set out by district planning authorities, but it is also due to differing
migration inputs.
Vale of White Horse district to grow by 18.3% 2014 to 2026; Cherwell 13.9%; South 13.7%;
West 12.3%; Oxford 7.3%. This compares to historic growth 2001 to 2011 of 8% across
Oxfordshire (12% in Oxford; 10% West Oxfordshire; 8% Cherwell; 5% South Oxfordshire;
4% Vale of White Horse).
Population growth is forecast 2014 to 2026 because:
o the number of births is forecast to exceed the number of deaths by 36,000;
o 52,000 more people are forecast to move into Oxfordshire than to move out.
Age profile changes: Oxfordshire’s population is forecast to continue aging. The proportion of
the population that is above the current working age limit (65) is forecast to increase from
17.2% in 2014 to 20% by 2026, whilst the proportion that is of working age (18 to 65) is
forecast to fall.
Largest growth up to 2026 is in the school age and 65+ age groups: the forecasts are a
15% increase in 5-16 age group and 45% increase in the 65+ group. Within the 65+ group,
older age groups are forecast to increase more than younger ones.
Only 8% growth in working age population is forecast. As other age-ranges will increase
more rapidly, the proportion of the population that is aged 20-64 will actually fall, from
59.1% in 2014 to 56.6% in 2026.
Numbers of births are forecast to remain above 8,000 a year despite fertility rates
stabilising at 2010 levels, due to continued growth in numbers of adults of reproductive age
living in Oxfordshire.
Migration: migration patterns 2008-2012 increased the working age population of Oxfordshire:
if these migration patterns (internally within the UK, or internationally) alter significantly in
future years then the size of the working age population, and the county’s overall age
structure, would change from that forecast here.
Life expectancy: life expectancy is expected to continue increasing (it results from the input
that mortality rates are expected to continue to fall across all age/gender groups). Healthy and
disability-free life expectancies are also expected to continue to increase.
Changes in living arrangements: whilst the numbers of older people will rise, the proportion
living alone in old age is forecast to fall slightly.
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Growth
Oxfordshire’s total population is forecast to grow by 13% in the next 11 years, from an
estimated 668,000 residents in the middle of 2014, to around 754,000 in 2026: an increase of
around 86,000. This increase is substantially greater than the population increase projected by
ONS in the Subnational Population Projections (these project a figure of around 715,000 by
2026, some 39,000 below these forecasts).
In part, these forecasts are higher than ONS projections because they take into account
proposed housing development whereas projections do not. Our forecasts explore the effects
of increases in the rate of housing supply (migration of people into areas of new housing),
whereas projections assume that migration rates observed in recent years continue. As
housing development was generally slower than average over the last five or six years (both
locally and nationally), the projections naturally indicate less population growth.
Whilst a population increase by 2026 is forecast in all districts, there are differences between
them in terms of the pattern of growth due to different “starting” population compositions,
different migration patterns, variations in birth and death rates in different areas, and
differences in timing and extent of planned new housing delivery (see annexe on housing
inputs).
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Cherwell is forecast to grow by 14% between 2014 and 2026 – below ONS-projections in 2014
and 2015, but above ONS projections for later years.
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Oxford City’s population is forecast to grow 7% between 2014 and 2026: this compares to 5%
growth 1991-2001, and 12% 2001-2011.
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Forecasts for South Oxfordshire are for growth more closely following ONS projections for the
first few years, with 15% growth forecast between 2014 and 2026.
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Vale of White Horse is forecast to experience 18% growth by 2026, an increase of 23,000
people.
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West Oxfordshire is forecast to grow by 12% between 2014 and 2026, an increase of 13,000
people.
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Age structure changes
Like other areas in England, the age structure of Oxfordshire has changed in recent years, and
it will continue to change significantly over the next two decades. As well as reporting a higher
total population figure for Oxfordshire than expected, the 2011 Census showed that the age
distribution of Oxfordshire’s population was also slightly different than expected.
Children and Young People (0 to 19)
Total Fertility Rates (the average number of children birthed by a woman over a whole lifetime)
rose across England throughout the 2000s, reaching a 40 year peak in 2010. International
migration into Oxfordshire was shown by the 2011 Census to have been higher than
previously expected, which increase the number of women of childbearing age. These two
factors have led to a higher number of births than were expected.
Fertility rates are expected to stay broadly the same over the forecast period. Combined with a
continued rise in the number of women of childbearing age, the forecast for the 0-19 age group
is for a 14% increase, from a total of 158,000 in 2014 to 180,000 in 2026.
Working age population (25-64)
Growth of the working age population will trail the growth of the children, young people, and
‘retirement-plus’ groups: a forecast 8% increase from 395,000 to 430,000 between 2014 and
2026.
Fertility rates were lower in the 1970s, 80s, and 90s compared to the post-war baby boom
(1945 to 1965). Fertility rates rose in the 2000s and look set to remain at the 2010 high-point
for some years. These historic changes mean that, for the period forecast here, the working
age cohort will be smaller than the current one “in front of” it (their parent’s generation), and
also smaller than the cohort “behind” it (the generation currently being born).
Offsetting this, these forecasts feature the input that recent international in-migration of
working-age people into Oxfordshire will continue at recently-observed rates. Additionally,
people moving from other parts of the UK into newly built housing within Oxfordshire tend to be
working age. If international migration were lower than in recent years, the forecasts of working
age populations in Oxfordshire up to 2026 would be lower.
Retirement-plus age population (65+)
The forecast for the 65+ age groups shows the largest change over the forecast period: a 28%
increase, from 115,000 in 2014 to 148,000 in 2026. Forecast increases are most dramatic in
the oldest groups: 45% growth in the 75+ group (from 53,000 in 2014 to 78,000 by 2026) and
47% growth for the 85+ group (up from 16,000 in 2014 to 24,000 in 2026). This is due to a
combination of falling mortality rates and the fact that the large baby-boom cohort will enter
this age range.
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Figure 8: summary of forecast age group percentage changes
Figure 7: summary of forecast age group totals
Page | 13
Household formation and marital status
As well as forecasting age and gender1 of the future population, the forecasts include inputs
about marital status of individuals (i.e. likelihood that people will marry, or remain single, or
divorce), and the likelihood of someone of a given age/gender/marital status forming a
household (vs. house sharing, living with parents, living with siblings, etc.). In this way, the
forecasts relate population changes to the amount of housing expected to be available
(information in District Local Plans). Forecast totals by age and gender are further divided into
three categories2:
In a couple (i.e. living with a spouse);
Previously in a couple (i.e. previously lived with a partner but now do not); and
Single (never lived with a partner).
These totals are calculated by applying inputs about marital status for each age/gender group
in each year to an initial projection of population. Aside from being required for housing-
constrained forecasting of the total population, forecasts of numbers by marital status are
important for:
Investigating changes in the likelihood of people living without a spouse in old age,
which have implications for care and health services, as well as social impacts
Understanding the housing needs of the population
Better understanding the lifestyles, and therefore needs, of Oxfordshire’s population
Tables showing the forecast proportion of people in each age/gender group by
couple/previously in a couple/single category are shown below, but the key points of
note are
People aged 18 to 24 are about as likely to live with a spouse in 2026 as they are in
2011: there is no significant change
People 25 to 64 regardless of gender, and men 65-74: these groups will be slightly
more likely to live alone in 2026 vs. 2011, and less likely to have previously done so
Women aged 75+, and men aged 85+: they will be more likely to live with a spouse –
significantly more so for women
These results arise from the combination of two factors. Firstly, the post-war baby-boomers
were less likely to live with a spouse compared to the generation before. However, for those
currently under-24 the prevalence of living alone is not expected to be higher than for their
parents. Secondly, life expectancy is increasing for both men and women, but men’s is
increasing fastest. This means that the difference in age at which spouses in male-female
couples die is narrowing, resulting in more men surviving a female spouse.
1This section uses the terms “men” and “women”. In reality the population will include a number of
persons currently identified, previously identified, or who will at some point identify, as intersex or
transgendered. Depending on definitions used, 1-2 people per 2000 are identifiable at birth as
intersex, with additional numbers identifiable as intersex later in life. The forecasts are limited to
presenting the population as having a binary gender mix due to the limitations of source data and the
lack of reliable figures for the number of transgender and intersex people in the county (such data
was not collected by the 2011 Census, for example). Where numbers of “men” and “women” appear
in these forecasts, these in fact include transgender and intersex persons.
2Household formation categories are determined by ONS’ Marital Status categories, derived from the
Census. These record the legal partnership status of the adult household population. Couples who
are living together but are not married, are classified as “single”.
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Future households in Oxfordshire: older age groups
All Oxfordshire
Cherwell
Oxford City
Count 65+
single All 65+
% 65+
single
Count 85+
single All 85+
% 85+
single
Count 65+
single All 65+
% 65+
single
Count 85+
single All 85+
% 85+
single
2014 13968 52125 27% 2514 5304 47% 29582 61764 48% 7271 8910 82%
2018 15449 55983 28% 2926 6405 46% 31931 67899 47% 7766 9895 78%
2022 16975 59730 28% 3339 7530 44% 34627 73928 47% 8394 11148 75%
2026 18754 64142 29% 3630 8290 44% 37977 81027 47% 9066 12487 73%
Men Women
Count 65+
singleAll 65+
% 65+
single
Count 85+
single All 85+
% 85+
single
Count 65+
single All 65+
% 65+
single
Count 85+
singleAll 85+
% 85+
single
2014 2825 11263 25% 504 1033 49% 6003 12962 46% 1399 1715 82%
2018 3250 12519 26% 639 1349 47% 6581 14505 45% 1520 1932 79%
2022 3681 13708 27% 756 1633 46% 7161 15848 45% 1646 2172 76%
2026 4154 14969 28% 827 1798 46% 7918 17571 45% 1768 2414 73%
Men Women
Count 65+
single All 65+
% 65+
single
Count 85+
single All 85+
% 85+
single
Count 65+
singleAll 65+
% 65+
single
Count 85+
single All 85+
% 85+
single
2014 3012 7485 40% 397 793 50% 5411 9661 56% 1226 1487 82%
2018 3175 7701 41% 426 882 48% 5866 10702 55% 1205 1515 80%
2022 3276 7723 42% 434 922 47% 6420 11786 54% 1211 1582 77%
2026 3402 7840 43% 427 916 47% 7105 12949 55% 1277 1726 74%
Men Women
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South Oxfordshire
Vale of White Horse
West Oxfordshire
Count 65+
singleAll 65+
% 65+
single
Count 85+
single All 85+ % 85+ single
Count 65+
single All 65+
% 65+
single
Count 85+
single All 85+
% 85+
single
2014 3133 12377 25% 627 1295 48% 6867 14537 47% 1696 2090 81%
2018 3495 13220 26% 763 1640 47% 7288 15644 47% 1812 2325 78%
2022 3878 14124 27% 915 2037 45% 7860 16946 46% 2014 2698 75%
2026 4331 15234 28% 1016 2296 44% 8541 18395 46% 2210 3069 72%
Men Women
Count 65+
single All 65+ % 65+ single
Count 85+
single All 85+
% 85+
single
Count 65+
single All 65+
% 65+
single
Count 85+
single All 85+
% 85+
single
2014 2679 11317 24% 536 1182 45% 5774 12897 45% 1510 1885 80%
2018 3001 12339 24% 616 1419 43% 6205 14192 44% 1670 2181 77%
2022 3338 13292 25% 699 1667 42% 6689 15410 43% 1822 2496 73%
2026 3741 14408 26% 774 1871 41% 7310 16942 43% 1921 2744 70%
Men Women
Count 65+
singleAll 65+
% 65+
single
Count 85+
single All 85+
% 85+
single
Count 65+
singleAll 65+
% 65+
single
Count 85+
singleAll 85+
% 85+
single
2014 2319 9683 24% 450 1001 45% 5528 11706 47% 1440 1732 83%
2018 2527 10205 25% 483 1115 43% 5992 12856 47% 1558 1942 80%
2022 2802 10882 26% 535 1272 42% 6497 13937 47% 1700 2200 77%
2026 3126 11691 27% 587 1409 42% 7104 15171 47% 1890 2533 75%
Men Women
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Life expectancy
Life Expectancy (LE) is a measure calculated from mortality rates across age/gender groups: this
means they provide a useful single-statistic for comparing changes in mortality rates over time and
mortality rate differences between areas.
The way a LE figure is calculated means they indicate the average number of years that people born in
a specified year would live, if they experienced throughout their life the age-and-gender-specific
mortality rates operating in the selected year. For example, a 2010 LE figure for females indicates the
how long a female born in 2010 would live if she experienced the mortality rate observed for infants in
2010 whilst she herself was an infant, then experienced the mortality rates observed for children in
2010 when she herself was a child, and so on for the other age ranges as she herself aged.
LEs are it commonly understood to be a prediction of expected average lifespan, but this is incorrect.
Since mortality rates generally change over time and are expected to continue changing, someone
born in 2010 is likely to experience lower age-specific mortality rates than those observed in 2010, and
so is likely to live longer, on average, than the 2010 LE figure.
Based on expected future mortality rates (see annexe), forecasting of Life Expectancy is possible, and
the results are shown in the table below.
Forecast life expectancies in Oxfordshire. Source Oxfordshire County Council population forecasts, May 2015
Update.
Male Life ExpectancyFemale Life
Expectancy
2014 79.9 84.2
2015 80.1 84.3
2016 80.2 84.5
2017 80.3 84.6
2018 80.5 84.7
2019 80.6 84.8
2020 80.7 85.0
2021 80.9 85.1
2022 81.0 85.2
2023 81.1 85.4
2024 81.3 85.5
2025 81.4 85.7
2026 81.5 85.8
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Factors leading to these population changes (components of change)
This section describes the inputs used in the forecasting process: these are the recent observable facts
and expert opinions that we think give the best indication of what the population will be like in future, in
terms of statistics describing its fertility, mortality, and migration. Migration figures shown here refer to
net migration, with positive figures indicating overall increase in population due to migration
(international and internal combined).
* indicates ONS-published data, collected for calendar years (January-December).
** indicates forecasts, for mid-year to mid-year (July-June).
Historic* Forecast** Historic* Forecast** Historic** Forecast**January-June
July-December
January-June
July-December
January-June
July-December
January-June
July-December
January-June
July-December
January-June
July-December
January-June
July-December
January-June
July-December
January-June
July-December
January-June
July-December
January-June
July-December
January-June
July-December
January-June
July-December
January-June
July-December
January-June
July-December
January-June
July-December
January-June
July-December
January-June
July-December
January-June
July-December
January-June
July-December
January-June
July-December
January-June
July-December
January-June
July-December
January-June
July-December
Births Deaths Migration
2003 72972132
2004 6985 50244660
2005 7575 5111590
2006 7992 51141079
2007 8148 4893293
2008 8307 51041253
2009 8134 49262296
2010 8439 50942590
2011 8502 5058
2012 8217 52911384
2013 7867 53557888 5462 2154
20148283 5521 4995
20158546 5603 9482
20168583 5709 7740
20178744 5811 6302
20188863 5911 6375
20198976 6019 4944
20206117 3715
20219073 6210 2896
20229077 6301 1682
20239046
2945
6378 18852024
9015 6456 14222025
8970 6542 11322026
9044
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Annexe 1: FAQs
Q: “What are ONS mid-year estimates?”
A: Whilst ONS projections make predictions about future population size, ONS mid-year-estimates
make predictions about the population in the past. If a starting resident population for a given year is
known, then the population one year later can be calculated from data on births, deaths, and migration:
Population year one year on = starting population + births – deaths +/- migrants
Year-on-year estimates of the population are calculated in this way, “rolling forward” the Census
estimate based on birth, death and migration data.
However, these estimates are only as good as the data they are based upon. While there is good
(statutory) recording of births and deaths, and reliable recording of internal migration (migrations within
England), international (cross-border) migration data is generally considered less accurate. The 2011
Census revealed that 2001-2011 net immigration had been higher than indicated by the survey
methods that were then in-place (amounting to a difference of several thousand for some areas, such
as Oxford City). Although the methods used by Office for National Statistics to calculate international
migration have been changed, it could be that a future Census results in a revision of historic Mid-Year-
Estimates, as happened for estimates covering years 2001 to 2011 following the 2011 Census.
This round of forecasts is based on 2012 mid-year estimates since mid-year estimates of ward
populations have only been produced up to 2012 at the time of writing.
Q: “How accurate are the forecasts?”
A: This is impossible to know until after the forecast period. The accuracy of many of the inputs used in
the forecast is equally impossible to quantify: it is best to think of the forecasts as the best estimate
of the future, based on the evidence we have. For example, the forecasts reflect the advice of an
ONS expert panel, which predicted that Total Fertility Rates (the average number of children born
per woman during a whole lifetime) will decline to 80% of 2011 rates by 2027. However, there is no
way to quantify the accuracy of this expert opinion until several years-worth of actual birth records
are available.
We do however have measures of the certainty of the 2011 Census estimates that provide the
starting population for the forecast period. The Census provides us with population estimates rather
than absolute counts, because some people never appear on Census forms despite the best-efforts
of the Census teams, and so other sources of data are used to calculate a correction to the Census
count, giving a census estimate. Remaining uncertainty around the correction factors leads to the
calculation of a range of possible values for a population’s size: dependant on how wide this range
of values is, a level of confidence that the real population size is somewhere within that range of
estimates can be assigned. For example, the 2011 Census population estimate for Oxford City is
usually expressed as a single figure (151,906), but this is actually only the middle-value within a
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range of estimates, from 148,900 to 154,900. This is the range within which ONS is 95% confident
the actual population total lies. Even after a Census therefore, we can only be confident of the
population’s size to within a few thousand people per 100,000. Confidence in the exact figures will
naturally be lower the further ahead from a Census that we forecast into the future. If you’d like to
learn more about Census estimates, we recommend reading “Trout, Catfish, and Roach” by ONS.
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Annexe 2 – Inputs This section describes the inputs used in the model – these are the recent observable facts and expert
opinions that we think give the best indication of the future. They are described in terms of changes in
births, deaths, and migration, as these are the factors together describe change the population size
and composition from one year to the next.
Fertility:
1. National Total Fertility Rates (TFRs) historic trend and forecasts to 2035 showing national TFR of
1.91 live births per woman in 2013 and 1.90 in 2025 (ONS Sub-national Population Projections) –
underlying basis for changes in total future fertility.
2. Local recent historic TFR at district level vs. national TFR – assumed to be a constant relationship
over time.
3. Broad age group Age-Specific-Fertility-Rates (ASFR) at district level, 2008-2011.
4. Descriptions of relative changes in age-fertility for women (taken from ONS Sub-national Population
projections), used to inform change in District-level age-fertility curves in future years.
1, 2, 3, and 4 were then used to construct district-level age-specific fertility rates for recent historic and
future years.
5. Additional input for ward forecasts: recent-historic relationship between expected (on basis of the
district-level age-fertility relationship) and actual births, based on comparing district-level ASFRs
with actual numbers of births. It is assumed that the district/ward difference remains constant
across future years.
Mortality:
1. National projected changes in mortality rates by broad age group 2012 to 2036 (ONS sub-national
Population Projections) used as basis for changes in future mortality by age group.
2. Recent mortality totals by broad age group 2010-2013 used with mid-year population estimates to
derive mortality rates by age group for starting year 2012.
1 and 2 used together to construct age-specific mortality rates for future years, based on last 3 years
average mortality as a starting mortality rates.
Migration:
Migration can be internal (between an area and others within the same country), or external (between
an area and areas outside that country). Migration events do not trigger recording processes in the
same way as births and deaths. Internal migration is fairly well recorded (but with some lag) because it
can be captured at events such as GP registration, or through pension and benefits data. International
migration is harder to measure, since a long-term international migrant is defined (by the UN) as a
person who moves from their country of usual residence for a period of at least 12 months. Surveys of
passengers are used, but these can only capture a relatively small sample compared to the totals being
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measured. As mentioned previously, international migration was found by the 2011 Census to have
been under-recorded between 2001 and 2011, although the methodology used by Office for National
Statistics has been modified since and previous migration data has been amended to reflect this.
Internal migration rates (rates by age and gender) for the previous five years are taken as a constant
input for 2012-2026. For international migration flows, age/gender net international migration flows are
assumed to have a constant relationship with ONS national projections. In this way internal flows are
modelled as varying according the total number of people of an age/gender/total population present to
in/out migrate, whereas international in/out flows are independent of the age/gender/total population
currently living in an area.
At ward levels, and for Oxford City, special populations such as university students, military
populations, and boarding school populations, are modelled as constant age/gender population
movements, replacing internal migration flows generated by rates.
Housing:
Growth in housing stock is a key driver of population growth. Our forecasts take the input that all new
housing completed will be, or has been, occupied in the year of completion. People moving into new
housing are modelled by the age/gender profile of historic internal migration, while the overall
population that will fit the housing stock in each year is constrained by modelling the total population
according to the Household Person and Household Representative rates that apply in each year (taken
from ONS Household projections). This methodology does not involve matching population type to
specific housing type built (the evidence required to do this does not exist).
Household Persons and Household Representative Rates:
The relationship between housing stock, population capacity of that stock, and forecast population size,
is described by Household Persons and Household Representatives. Before the economic crash, there
was a fairly consistent trend towards smaller households (increasing Representative Rates): the
average age of living with a partner for the first time was rising, as were the numbers never living with a
partner at any point in their life. This trend was partly changing before the 2008-9 economic down-turn
for some groups and, when combined with the constraint upon household formation brought about by
the 2008-9 downturn, resulted in Representative Rates observed in the 2011 Census being
considerably lower overall than previously projected.
As part of the ONS 2012 Sub National Population Projections, future projections from 2012 to 2036
were published: however, expert opinion suggests this projection a poor indicator of likely future
behaviour, since the effects of the economic downturn on household formation are expected to be
temporary given that economic recovery is underway. Therefore, the input is for Household
Representative Rates to transition to a mix of 20% of an extended 2011 series projection, and 80% of
the 2008 series projection, by 2031 (a partial return to the 2008 projections).
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Cherwell housing growth inputs
Site Additional new
dwellings 2011-2026
61-66 Calthorpe Street 0
Oxford Lodge, 51 Oxford Road 0
108 Bretch Hill 0
Spencer House, Britannia Road 0
Hanwell Fields 0
Land north of Castle Street & east of Southam Road 0
South of Warwick Road & west of North Bar 0
Hanwell Fields Farm 0
The Autoshop', 38 Middleton Road 0
Former Bridge Motors Site, Causeway 0
Orchard Fields Primary School 0
Former Cattle Market 0
Land adjoining and to the rear of 286 to 304 Broughton Road 0
Old Stanbridge Hall, Banbury School, Ruskin Road 70
Former allotment, Miller Road 10
62 64 and land to the rear of 58, 60 Oxford Road 9
Dashwood School 19
56-60 Calthorpe St 14
Bankside 1090
Neithrop House, 39 Warwick Road 7
Penrose House, 67 Hightown Road 14
Calthorpe House, 60 Calthorpe Street 15
Methodist Church, The Fairway 11
Orchard Lodge, Warwick Road 16
Lincoln House, Lincoln Close 18
Land south of Hightown Road 8
Junction of Warwick Road & Foundry Street, 92-94 Warwick Road 22
Land adjoining and north west of 35 Crouch Hill Road 26
Land at Banbury AAT Academy 44
Land East of Southam Road 510
Land West of Southam Road 90
North of Hanwell Fields 350
West of Bretch Hill 400
42 South Bar Street 13
South of Salt Way, Crouch Farm, Bloxham Road, Banbury 145
Canalside House, Tramway Road 14
Windfall Allowance Banbury (<10 dwellings) 310
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North Bar Place 32
Cemex and Grundons, Merton Street 150
Canalside 650
Crown House, Christchurch Court 33
Crown House, Christchurch Court 10
Banbury Fire and Ambulance Stations, Cope Road 12
Orchard Way, Banbury 0
Bankside Phase 2 100
Town Centre House Southam Road 31
Jubilee Garage (Coach House Mews) 0
Vine Cottages 0
Rose Cottage, London Road 0
Sunlight Services, Buckingham Road 0
Land & Buildings Adjacent & South of 59 Priory Road 0
4-6 London Road 0
West of Chapel St. & Bryan House 5
Former Oxfordshire County Council Highways Depot 42
Kingsmere (South West Bicester) - Phase 1 1649
North-West Bicester Eco-town Exemplar Project 393
Land south of Talisman Road, Bicester 126
Land south of Church Lane (Old Place Yard and St Edburgs) 17
Graven Hill, Bicester 1200
Transco Depot, Launton Road 23
Bicester Community Hospital Kings End 14
Windfall Allowance Bicester (<10 dwellings) 94
NW Bicester Phase 2 870
SW Bicester Phase 2 450
South East Bicester 400
Cattle Market 40
St. Edburg's School 14
Bessemer Close / Launton Road 30
Land off Banbury Road, Ells Lane, Bloxham 0
Beauchamp Squash Club, Barford Road, Bloxham 0
Fritwell C of E School, Fritwell 0
Green Hill House, Oxford Road, Adderbury 0
North of Milton Road, Bloxham 0
Land south of Aynho Road, Adderbury 0
Land adjacent 55 High St, Kidlington 0
Oxford Road, Chesterton 0
Former MOD housing estate (land adjoining Laburnum Close), Ambrosden 0
OS Parcel 1400 East Of Sands Close Adjacent Junction Of Springwell Road And 0
Page | 24
Station Road, Bletchingdon
Bowood House Hotel, 238 Oxford Road, Kidlington 0
The Manor House, Springhill Road, Begbroke 0
West of West Hawthorn, Ambrosden 0
South of Buchanan Road, Arncott 0
South of Greenfields, Arncott 0
Adult Training Centre, Blenheim Road, Kidlington 0
Land north east of Gosford Farm, Bicester Road, Gosford 0
North of Gossway Fields (formerly Crutchmore Crescent), Kirtlington 0
18 High Street, Kidlington 0
Land at and including Sherwood Close, Launton 0
Former Little Bourton Service Station (now Pinson Close), Southam Road, Little Bourton
5
South of Milton Road, Bloxham 61
Thornbury House, The Moors, Kidlington 54
Former RAF Upper Heyford 761
Oak Farm, Milcombe 29
DJ Stanton (Engineering) Ltd Station Road, Hook Norton
37
Land South West of Orchard Close and adjoining Murcott Road, Arncott 48
North of Cassington Road (land adjacent to Exeter Farm), Yarnton 115
Former DLO Caversfield 195
Yew Tree Farm, Station Road, Launton 40
The Green, Chesterton 44
Land north of Station Road, Bletchingdon 58
Cotefield Farm, Bodicote 82
Springfield Farm, Ambrosden 90
Chestnut Close, Launton 11
4 The Rookery, Kidlington 10
Land North of The Bourne and adjoining Bourne Lane, Hook Norton 70
Land South of Milton Road, Bloxham 85
Land adjoining and South of St Christopher Lodge, Barford Road, Bloxham 75
Land at Station Road, Enslow 10
Land North of Gaveston Gardens, Deddington 85
1-20 Lakesmere Close Kidlington 22
Windfall Allowance Other (<10 dwellings) 838
Tyre Depot, South of Cassington Road, Yarnton 16
Builder's Yard, The Moors, Kidlington 13
Land at Arncott Hill Farm, Buchanan Road, Arncott 0
Units 1 5 6 7 And 11 12 13 Somerville Court Adderbury 26
Total, all dwellings 12490
Page | 25
Page | 26
Oxford City housing growth inputs
Site Additional new
dwellings 2011-2026
Avis site (SP1) 21
Banbury Road sites (SP2) 10
Barton Road Cricket Ground (SP4) 35
Blackbird Leys Central Area (SP5) 100
BT Site (SP6) 43
Canalside land (SP7) 20
Churchill Hospital Site and Ambulance Resource Centre (SP8) 60
Court Place Gardens (SP9) 65
Cowley Centre (SP11) 50
Cowley Community Centre (SP12) 20
Cowley Marsh Depot site (SP12) 47
Crescent Hall (SP13) 48
Diamond Place and Ewert House (SP14) 50
East Minchery Farm Allotments (SP15) 35
Elsfield Hall (SP16) 30
Faculty of Music (SP17) 10
Fox and Hounds pub and former petrol station (SP18) 4
Government Buildings (SP19) 25
Harcourt House (SP20) 30
Jesus College Sports Ground (SP22) 20
John Radcliffe Hospital Site (SP23) 35
Kassam Stadium Sites (SP24) 100
Land north of Littlemore Mental Health Centre (SP25) 180
Lincoln College Sports Ground (SP27) 100
Littlemore Park (SP29) 250
Longlands (SP30) 24
Marston Court (SP32) 12
Marywood House (SP33) 18
Nielsen (SP34) 150
Northfield Hostel (SP35) 35
Northway Centre (SP37) 20
Oxford University Press Sports Ground (SP45) 130
Paul Kent Hall (SP47) 35
Railway Lane (SP49) 55
South Parks Depot (SP54) 6
Temple Cowley Pools (SP56) 26
Townsend House (SP57) 24
Union Street Car Park (SP59) 20
Warneford Hospital (SP61) 45
Warren Crescent (SP62) 18
West Wellington Square (SP63) 10
Windale House (SP64) 42
Wolvercote Paper Mill (Plot A) (SP65a) 200
Cooper Callas site 10
County Hall 65
Island site 38
Page | 27
Magistrates Court 10
Nursery, Osney Lane 11
Osney Warehouse 14
Oxford and Cherwell Valley College 40
Becket Street Car Park 70
Oxpens Road site 240
Fire Station, Rewley Road 40
Telephone Exchange 27
St. Aldate’s/ Queen Street 20
Police Station, St Aldate’s 30
Westgate Shopping Centre and Abbey Place Car Park 80
Worcester Street Car Park 18
Northern Gateway 200
Barton Safeguarded Land 100
Barton Safeguarded Land 175
Barton Safeguarded Land 200
Barton Safeguarded Land 200
Barton Safeguarded Land 175
Barton Safeguarded Land 150
Between Towns Road 25
Blackbird Leys Northern Opportunity Area 200
Land Adjacent TKMaxx, John Allen Centre 10
Scrap yard, Jackdaw Lane 70
Westlands Drive Hall Northway 10
Workshop at Lanham Way 9
10 Stephen Road 7
312 London Road 7
46 Hythe Bridge Street 7
60 Lake Street 0
Land rear of 274 and 276 Woodstock Road 8
Land To Rear Of 9/11/13/15/17/19 Cherwell Dr & 489-493 Marston Rd 7
Manor Ground (SP31) 24
Oxonian Rewley Press 7
Shotover View 0
376 Banbury Road 5
Hernes House Residential Home 5
Temple Court Business Centre 5
Other completions 2011-2013 457
Page | 28
South Oxfordshire Housing growth inputs
Site Additional new
dwellings 2011-2026
Past Completions 338
OS permissions <10 59
OS permissions >10 0
Windfall rates on sites of less than 10 130
Projected completions - allocated sites 0
Ladygrove East 675
Great Western Park 2266
Great Western Park (Land at Park Road) 120
Vauxhall Barracks 300
Didcot Greenfield Neighbourhood 1700
Gateway site 72
Orchard Centre Phase 2 200
Past Completions 618
outstanding permissions <10 302
OS permissions >10 0
Windfall rates on sites of <10 697
Windfall rates on sites of 10-14 88
Windfall rates on sites of 15-19 0
Projected completions - allocated sites 0
Fairmile 188
Chinnor Cement Works 61
Mongewell Park (Carmel College) 166
Icknield Road, Goring 19
Icknield Place, Goring 40
Townlands Hospital, Henley 45
Market Place Mews, Henley 14
Wallingford Site B 555
Thame Neighbourhood Plan Site D 175
Thame Neighbourhood Plan Site C 187
Thame Neighbourhood Plan Site F 203
Thame Neighbourhood Plan The Elms 45
Other identified sites: 0
Memec (Thame Park Road) 35
CABI, Wallingford 80
New allocations 0
Henley 400
Larger Villages 1154
Total, all dwellings 10932
Page | 29
Vale of White Horse housing growth inputs
Site Additional new
dwellings 2011-2026
Small sites in the district (permissions for sites <10 units) 699
Inputs on windfall development 520
Land adj to police HQ, Colwell Drive 9
Land opp Shepherds Hey & Southbourne, Bessels Way 14
Manor Farm, Fernham 4
St Johns Court, Oxford Ln 10
Amey Plc, Appleford Rd 15
Abbey House, Stirlings Rd 10
Former bus depot site, Grove St & Limborough Rd 30
St Marys School, Newbury St 56
The Old Gaol Leisure Centre 61
Land to the South of Chilton Field 275
Timbmet Ltd, Cumnor Hill 192
Former Tree Nursery & Cricket Club & Jespers Hill, Park Rd 277
Land adj 31 & 34 Simpsons Way 16
33 West, St Helen 10
Champion House, 12 Wootton Rd 24
Radcliffe, 18 Marcham Rd 0
Challow Country Club, Woodhill Ln 14
Nalder Estate & The Old Canal Building, Main St 71
Land South of Alfreds Place 15
Land adj to Folly Park, Park Rd 28
Faringdon Tennis Club, Southampton St 0
Land adj Coxwell House & Winslow House, Coxwell Rd 35
Land at Stockham Farm, Denchworth Rd 200
98-100 West Way, Botley 10
Botley Baptist Church, Chapel Way 0
East of Highworth Rd 36
Land between Station Rd & Townsend Rd 30
Land Opp Shrivenham Hundred Business Park 120
46 Newbury Street 23
Ambulance Station, Ormond Rd 11
Sites "H" & "L", Limborough Rd 0
Land West of Witney Road and South of A420 108
Land South of Faringdon Rd, Southmoor 50
Land adj NE & NW of Tilbury Ln, Botley 150
Land off Barnett Rd 50
Land at Didcot Road, Great Western Park 700
Broadwater, Manor Rd 14
Cowan's Camp Depot, High St 100
Land off Lime Rd, Botley 136
Major Amey's Site 140
35 & 37 Yarnells Hill 0
17 to 20 Millbrook Sq 11
Christ Church, Hobbyhorse Ln 15
Anson Field, Morland Rd, Hyde Copse, Howard Cornish Rd 51
Monks Farm, Phase 1, Land West of Old Station Rd 133
South of Lamb Ave 18
Land east of Chainhill Rd 85
Land off Rectory Farm Cl 13
Land at Grove Air Field, Denchworth Rd 1900
Page | 30
Harwell Oxford Campus, Phase 1 120
South of Park Rd 380
Park Rd 0
Harwell Oxford Campus, Phase 2 280
Monks Farm, Phase 2 plus, Land West of Old Station Rd 405
Valley Park 1625
Crab Hill, North East Wantage 1336
LPP2 Villages 767
Total, all dwellings 11402
Page | 31
West Oxfordshire
Data unavailable at present.
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