OBSERVERDubai Market ReportQ1 / 2019
Price Movements
Apartments
Apartments
Volumes
Volumes
Villas
Villas
Values
Values
Rental Movements
Completed Unit Transactions
Off-Plan Unit Transactions
Report HighlightsServices
Sales prices
The downward price corrections witnessed throughout 2018 continued in Q1 2019, albeit at a slightly slower pace than witnessed in Q4 2018. Average apartment sales prices were down 3% from the last quarter, while average villa prices were down 1% from Q4 2018.
Rental rates
As in previous quarters, we witnessed a continued downward pressure on rents in Q1 2019. This is a consequence of additional supply being added to the market, thus offering more choice to the potential tenant. Average rents saw a further 2% decrease in the apartment and villa markets from Q4 2018.
Transactions
Volumes. The completed unit market witnessed a small decline in transactional volumes in Q1 2019 with a 1% decrease compared with Q4 2018, from 3,278 to 3,230units. In contrast, the volume of off-plan transactions was up 10% on Q4 2018. Perhaps this figure is even more significant given the 33% increase in volumes in Q4 2018 when compared with Q3 2018.
Values. Transactions involving completed properties showed an increase in values of 5% from AED 5.39 billion in Q4 2018 to AED 5.64 billion in Q1 2019. Additionally, there was a significant uplift in values for off-plan properties of 35%, from AED 5.82 billion in Q4 2018 to AED 7.85 billion in Q1 2019.
Market outlook
Over 20,000 new residential units were delivered in 2018 and the projections for 2019 are for a similar or even higher number (est. 25,000 to 30,000 units), as many of the 2014-16 off-plan projects will be delivered. This will ensure Dubai’s residential market remains highly occupier and buyer friendly, due to the wide variety of options available at competitive prices/rates.
ValuationsMortgage and Secured LendingPortfolio Valuations
Advisory and ResearchFinancial FeasibilitiesHighest and Best Use StudiesMarket ResearchConceptual Advisory and Project Positioning Studies Project Redevelopment/Repositioning Advisory Investment Strategies – Acquisition and Disposal
Sales and LeasingCommercialIndustrialResidentialRetail
Property/Facilities Management CommercialMixed-UseResidential
International Properties London Off-Plan ResidentialInternational Homes and Investments International Relocations
Residential Market Q1 2019 Snapshot
QoQ −3%
QoQ −2%
QoQ -1%
QoQ +10%
QoQ −1%
QoQ −2%
QoQ +5%
QoQ +35%
The Observer - Dubai Residential Q1 2019 1
Further price declines witnessed in Q1, however off-plan sales remain strong
The downward price corrections witnessed throughout 2018 continued in Q1 2019, albeit at a slightly slower pace than witnessed in Q4 2018. Average apartment sales prices were down 3% from the last quarter, while average villa prices were down 1% from Q4 2018.
Off-plan sales continued to dominate the market in Q1, which indicates the incentives offered by developers are having the desired effect. These incentives include 5-year post-handover payment plans, the rebate of registration fees, freezing property
service charges and guaranteed rental returns. It is also worth noting that off-plan inventories are largely focused on the affordable, mid-market options, which is likely to be having a positive effect on absorption rates.
However perhaps more interestingly, in locations where the largest amount of transactions have taken place in Q1, such as MBR City, it is clear there is a growing demand for more innovative living solutions. More information is included later in this report.
HOT TOPIC Co-living spaces are set to change the face of Dubai’s off-plan residential market as their popularity gains pace. Simply put, the concept of co-living spaces is focused around the buyer or tenant being able to live and work in the same location; a detail which is important for many who do not want to be caught up in a long daily commute. As such, developers are now creating spaces that address the business and leisure requirements of residents, all in one development. In terms of the more established communities, Dubai Silicon Oasis has had success with co-living and co-working spaces as has Tecom with its Internet and Media Cities and Knowledge Village. More recently, Nshama launched UNA located at the Town Square community and Emaar, The Collective and Socio at MBR City.
The Observer - Dubai Residential Q1 2019 2
Apartments: Quarter-on-Quarter movement: (–3%)
Prices of apartments in Downtown, Dubailand, Dubai Motor City and Dubai Silicon Oasis continued to remain resilient in Q1, with these locations witnessing no price movement since the previous quarter. Small declines were seen in the Views and Discovery Gardens with a 1% decrease from Q4 2018. The highest declines were witnessed in International City, Dubai Sports City and Business Bay, all with a 7% decrease in prices since Q4 2018.
Over 80% of the new stock delivered in 2018 was apartments, with a similar ratio set to be handed over in 2019. This might explain the consistently higher rate of price decline for apartments, as opposed to villas, given the greater level of supply on the market.
Villas: Quarter-on-Quarter movement: (–1%)
Market sentiment in the villa community of The Lakes remained the most positive, as there was no movement in prices from Q4 2018. In contrast to the previous quarter, The Meadows and Springs communities witnessed the highest price declines of 4%. Small price declines were seen in Jumeirah Park with a 1% decrease, whilst Palm Jumeirah and Arabian Ranches both witnessed a 2% decline from Q4 2018.
Apartments and Villas − Residential Sales Prices and Quarterly Change
SharjahAbu Dhabi
The Palm Deira
DubaiMaritime
City
Bur Dubai
Deira
Hamriya
WuheidaMamzar
Hor Al Anz
Al Nahda
AirportFree Zone
Karama
Garhoud
Twar Qusais
Muhaisnah
Mirdif
Mizar
Khwaneej
Ghoroob
Shorooq
Warqaa
ZabeelOud
Metha
CultureVillage
UmmRamool
NaddShamma
DubaiFestival City
MeydanCity
Ras Al Khor
Bu Kadra
NaddAl Hammar
InternationalCity
AcademicCity
DubaiSilicon Oasis
Al WahaCommunity
MotorCity
SportsCity
Layan
Nad Al Sheba
Al BarariLiving Legends
ArabianRanches
Dubiotech
Awir
UmmHurairTrade
CentreDIFC
Dubai Mall
Mirdif CityCentre
Dragon Mart
Deira CityCentre
Al KhailGate
MediaCity
JumeirahIslands
JumeirahGolf
Estates
GreenCommunity
DowntownJebel Ali
Technology Park
DubaiInvestment
Park
DubaiWorld
Central
InternationalMedia
ProductionZone(IMPZ)
JumeirahHeights
TheGardens
DiscoveryGardens
Ibn BattutaMall
Jebel AliVillage
Jebel Ali Freezone EmiratesHills
InternetCity
Greens
Meadows
The Lakes
Al FurjanThe SpringsJumeirah
Park
TECOM
The Views
JLT
Al Quoz
Barsha
Mall of the Emirates
Dubai Pearl
Palm Jumeirah
Dubai MarinaBurjuman
Centre
Satwa
Badaa
Jumeirah
Al WaslSafa
Umm Suqeim
ManaraSufouh
The World
Arabian Gulf
Jumeirah BeachResidence
BluewaterIslands
The PalmJebel AliDubai
Waterfront
Barsha
MOTOR CITY713
MOTOR CITY713
DISCOVERYGARDENS
636
0%Q-o-Q
Movement
DISCOVERYGARDENS
627-1%
Q-o-QMovement
DOWNTOWN1,515
DOWNTOWN1,511
0%Q-o-Q
Movement
BUSINESS BAY1,114
BUSINESS BAY1,038-7%
Q-o-QMovement
DUBAILAND725
DUBAILAND722
0%Q-o-Q
Movement
DUBAIMARINA
1,185
DUBAIMARINA
1,153-3%
Q-o-QMovement
DUBAI SILICONOASIS
704DUBAI SILICON
OASIS
703 0%Q-o-Q
Movement
SPORTS CITY793
SPORTS CITY737
-7%Q-o-Q
Movement
JUMEIRAHLAKE TOWERS
977 JUMEIRAHLAKE TOWERS
921-6%
Q-o-QMovement
THE VIEWS1,209 THE VIEWS
1,197
-1%Q-o-Q
Movement
JUMEIRAHVILLAGECIRCLE
759JUMEIRAHVILLAGECIRCLE
728
-4%Q-o-Q
Movement
THE GREENS965 THE GREENS
925
-4%Q-o-Q
Movement
INTERNATIONALCITY
516INTERNATIONAL
CITY
481
-7%Q-o-Q
Movement
Apartment Sales Q4 2018 Apartment Sales Q1 2019Villa Sales Q4 2018 Villa Sales Q1 2019 QoQ MovementFigures in AED/Sq FtSource: REIDIN & Chestertons
ARABIANRANCHES
840
THE LAKES1,103
ARABIANRANCHES
860
JUMEIRAHPARK
868
+2%Q-o-Q
Movement
JUMEIRAHPARK
859
-1%Q-o-Q
Movement
PALMJUMEIRAH
2,035PALM
JUMEIRAH
1,984
-2%Q-o-Q
Movement
THE MEADOWS936
THE MEADOWS897 -4%
Q-o-QMovement
THE LAKES1,107
0%Q-o-Q
Movement
Dubailand
THE SPRINGS936THE SPRINGS
897-4%
Q-o-QMovement
The Observer - Dubai Residential Q1 2019 4 The Observer - Dubai Residential Q1 2019 5
Apartments − Residential Market Rent and Quarterly Change
Supply continues to be a major factor causing downward corrections in the rental market
Villas − Residential Market Rent and Quarterly Change
As in previous quarters, there was continued downward pressure on rents in Q1 2019. This was a consequence of additional supply being added to the market, thus offering more choice to potential tenants. Average rents saw a further 2% decrease in the apartment and villa markets from Q4 2018.
Due to additional stock being available and limited new demand, the most important consideration for landlords in maintaining a decent return on investment is avoiding long void periods. This means they have to consider offering not only lower rental rates but also incentives to attract and retain tenants. Current incentives being offered to tenants include; multiple rent cheques (some of which extend to monthly payments), rent-free periods, waiver of security deposits, multiple cheques to cover utility bills, shorter term leases and in some cases we have witnessed landlords covering the cost of agency fees.
Short-term, Airbnb style rentals are becoming more popular with landlords as the downward corrections continue in the long term rental market. Last year, figures show occupancy rates were at 65%, across the board, during Dubai’s peak season. Such rentals are preferable for those undertaking project work or who are on probation, as these individuals are unable to commit to traditional annual rental contracts as the tenancy cannot be registered if the residency visa is still to be granted.
Apartments: Quarter-on-Quarter movement: (– 2%)
In the apartment market, the biggest declines were seen in Dubai Motor City, Dubai Silicon Oasis, Dubai Sports City and JLT – all of which witnessed a 4% decline from Q4 2018. Popular established communities, such as Dubai Marina and Business Bay, have remained resilient with no movement in rates since the last quarter.
In contrast to findings in the latter part of 2018, where smaller format apartments and studio apartments were the most affected by market adjustments, in Q1 2019 it was 2 and 3 BR apartments which were most affected with an average 3% decline in rental rates. There was no movement in average rental rates for studio apartments.
Villas: Quarter-on-Quarter movement: (– 2%)
In the villa market, the biggest rental decline was witnessed in JVT at 5% from Q4 2018 with the most resilient locations being Jumeirah Golf Estates, Jumeirah Islands and The Lakes with no movement in rental rates from Q4 2018.
The smallest format 2 BR villa appeared to witness the biggest declines with an average 5% decrease in rents from the previous quarter.
HOT TOPIC Rent-to-Own (RTO) schemes are set to gain momentum in 2019 in Dubai’s residential market. Whilst still in their relative infancy with a number of legal and regulatory issues still to be addressed, it is likely they will boost investor interest and stimulate absorption rates as developers can tap into a new buyer segment. A pool of buyers with good salaries but without the cash reserves to afford the 25% down payment. Or those buyers who are unsure about future market trends. We predict this could place further pressure on the traditional rental market as prospective buyers will opt in favour of this model to avoid getting caught in the ‘rent trap’. RTO deals can currently be found in areas such as Jumeirah Village Circle, Palm Jumeirah and Dubai Sports City.
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Studio 1BR 2BR 3BR QoQ Change
Business Bay DIFC DiscoveryGardens
DowntownDubai
Dubai Marina DubaiSilicon Oasis
Dubai Sports City
Dubailand InternationalCity
JLT JVC The Greens The Views DubaiMotor City
PERCENTAG
E CHAN
GEAE
D R
ENTA
L RA
TES
Figures in AED/Sq FtSource: Propertyfinder & Chestertons
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
ArabianRanches
TheSprings
TheMeadows
The Lakes VictoryHeights
Al Furjan JVT JumeirahIslands
JumeirahGolf Estates
PalmJumeirah
2BR 3BR 4BR 5BR QoQ MovementFigures in AED/Sq FtSource: Propertyfinder & Chestertons
AED
REN
TAL
RATE
S
PERCENTAG
E CHAN
GE
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Studio 1BR 2BR 3BR QoQ Change
Business Bay DIFC DiscoveryGardens
DowntownDubai
Dubai Marina DubaiSilicon Oasis
Dubai Sports City
Dubailand InternationalCity
JLT JVC The Greens The Views DubaiMotor City
PERCENTAG
E CHAN
GEAE
D R
ENTA
L RA
TES
Figures in AED/Sq FtSource: Propertyfinder & Chestertons
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
ArabianRanches
TheSprings
TheMeadows
The Lakes VictoryHeights
Al Furjan JVT JumeirahIslands
JumeirahGolf Estates
PalmJumeirah
2BR 3BR 4BR 5BR QoQ MovementFigures in AED/Sq FtSource: Propertyfinder & Chestertons
AED
REN
TAL
RATE
S
PERCENTAG
E CHAN
GE
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Studio 1BR 2BR 3BR QoQ Change
Business Bay DIFC DiscoveryGardens
DowntownDubai
Dubai Marina DubaiSilicon Oasis
Dubai Sports City
Dubailand InternationalCity
JLT JVC The Greens The Views DubaiMotor City
PERCENTAG
E CHAN
GEAE
D R
ENTA
L RA
TES
Figures in AED/Sq FtSource: Propertyfinder & Chestertons
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
ArabianRanches
TheSprings
TheMeadows
The Lakes VictoryHeights
Al Furjan JVT JumeirahIslands
JumeirahGolf Estates
PalmJumeirah
2BR 3BR 4BR 5BR QoQ MovementFigures in AED/Sq FtSource: Propertyfinder & Chestertons
AED
REN
TAL
RATE
S
PERCENTAG
E CHAN
GE
The Observer - Dubai Residential Q1 2019 6 The Observer - Dubai Residential Q1 2019 7
Value of Residential Transactions Q1 2019 (AED Billions)
Off-plan sales dominated the market in Q1,where demand is being seen for innovativeliving solutions
Volume of Residential Transactions Q1 2019 (Number of Units)
Overall, transactional activity was on the rise in the first quarter of 2019. However, going forward, interest rate hikes could pose a potential threat to investors in the UAE. In October 2018, the FED increased interest rates by 25 basis points, with another hike taking place in December 2018. As the Dirham is pegged to the US dollar, interest rates rose in the Emirates as well. Two additional rate hikes are expected in the US during 2019, which will immediately correlate to interest rate increases in the UAE.
Q1 data suggests high demand for certain off-plan projects. The highest performing of which, in terms of volumes, was at MBR. From the total number of all transactions which took place in Q1 at MBR, just over 70% were for Emaar projects; with Collective Tower and Socio at Dubai Hills representing most of those sales. Both of these projects are centered on co-living spaces. These spaces are aimed at a younger buyer and tenant profile offering an all-inclusive, holistic living space where they can live and work within the same neighbourhood.
Of Dubai’s existing residential projects, Dubailand, Dubai Marina and Palm Jumeirah continued to show consistent sales performance, in terms of volume of units transacted throughout Q1.
Transaction Volumes
Quarter-on-Quarter Movement (Completed Units): -1% Quarter-on-Quarter Movement (Off-Plan Units): +10%
The market for completed units witnessed a small decline in transactional volumes in Q1 2019 with a 1% decrease compared with Q4 2018, from 3,278 to 3,230 units.
In contrast, the volume of off-plan transactions was up 10% on Q4 2018. Perhaps this figure is even more significant given the 33% increase in volumes in Q4 2018 compared with Q3 2018. This could be due to the attractive incentives offered by developers to entice buyers - coupled with the fact that inventories are mostly focused on mid-market, affordable properties, as well as options for more innovative living solutions.
Dubailand continued to be the most popular community in terms of ready unit transaction volumes as it was in Q4 2018 and MBR City was the most popular off-plan location.
Transaction Values
Quarter-on-Quarter Movement (Completed Units): +5% Quarter-on-Quarter Movement (Off-Plan Units): +35%
Transactions involving completed properties showed an increase in values of 5% from AED 5.39 billion in Q4 2018 to AED 5.64 billion in Q1 2019. Additionally, there was a significant uplift in values for off-plan properties of 35% from AED 5.82 billion in Q4 2018 to AED 7.85 billion in Q1 2019.
Palm Jumeirah was the most popular location in terms of completed unit transaction values at AED 817 million and Downtown Dubai for off-plan units at AED 1.9 billion.
HOT TOPIC Dubai Land Department (DLD) has announced new plans to secure Foreign Direct Investment into the UAE which could have a significant impact on both transaction volumes and values. This includes promoting UAE real estate to prospective Chinese investors, with the goal of attracting at least AED 1 billion of inward property investment from this source market in 2019. This goal is being supported by the DLD offices in Beijing and Shanghai with a third office opening in Shenzhen in the near future. Freehold ownership, high rental yields, affordability and tax-free investments will play a key role in driving Chinese investment into the UAE. Russia and India are the other key markets being targeted by the DLD.
The Observer - Dubai Residential Q1 2019 8 The Observer - Dubai Residential Q1 2019 9
1,000
0
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Q4 2018 Q1 2019
Completed Properties O�-planFigures in AED/Sq FtSource: REIDIN & Chestertons
Completed Properties
O�-plan
5.647.85
3,278
4,514
3,230
4,965
Figures in AED/Sq FtSource: REIDIN & Chestertons
1,000
0
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Q4 2018 Q1 2019
Completed Properties O�-planFigures in AED/Sq FtSource: REIDIN & Chestertons
Completed Properties
O�-plan
5.647.85
3,278
4,514
3,230
4,965
Figures in AED/Sq FtSource: REIDIN & Chestertons
1,000
0
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Q4 2018 Q1 2019
Completed Properties O�-planFigures in AED/Sq FtSource: REIDIN & Chestertons
Completed Properties
O�-plan
5.647.85
3,278
4,514
3,230
4,965
Figures in AED/Sq FtSource: REIDIN & Chestertons
Q1 2019 Sales TransactionsCompleted Units
Top 10 Areas Based on Transaction Volumes (Number of Units) Top 10 Areas Based on Transaction Volumes (Number of Units)
Q1 2019 Sales TransactionsOff-plan Units
Top 10 Areas Based on Transaction Values (in million AED) Top 10 Areas Based on Transaction Values (in million AED)
100 50 150 200 250 350 400300
Al Furjan
Emirates Living
Downtown Dubai
Dubai Sports City
Business Bay
Jumeirah Village Circle
International City
Palm Jumeirah
Dubai Marina
Dubailand
200 400 600 800 1,000
Jumeirah Village Circle
Al Furjan
Arabian Ranches
Business Bay
Downtown Dubai
Emirates Living
Dubai Marina
Dubailand
MBR City
Palm Jumeirah
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Dubai Marina
Jumeirah Village Circle
Jumeirah Lake Towers
Dubai Harbour
Dubai South
The Lagoons
Business Bay
Downtown Dubai
Dubailand
MBR City
500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Jumeirah Village Circle
Palm Jumeirah
Dubai South
Dubai Marina
Business Bay
Dubai Harbour
Dubailand
The Lagoons
MBR City
Downtown Dubai
Source: REIDIN & Chestertons Source: REIDIN & Chestertons
Source: REIDIN & Chestertons Source: REIDIN & Chestertons
100 50 150 200 250 350 400300
Al Furjan
Emirates Living
Downtown Dubai
Dubai Sports City
Business Bay
Jumeirah Village Circle
International City
Palm Jumeirah
Dubai Marina
Dubailand
200 400 600 800 1,000
Jumeirah Village Circle
Al Furjan
Arabian Ranches
Business Bay
Downtown Dubai
Emirates Living
Dubai Marina
Dubailand
MBR City
Palm Jumeirah
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Dubai Marina
Jumeirah Village Circle
Jumeirah Lake Towers
Dubai Harbour
Dubai South
The Lagoons
Business Bay
Downtown Dubai
Dubailand
MBR City
500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Jumeirah Village Circle
Palm Jumeirah
Dubai South
Dubai Marina
Business Bay
Dubai Harbour
Dubailand
The Lagoons
MBR City
Downtown Dubai
Source: REIDIN & Chestertons Source: REIDIN & Chestertons
Source: REIDIN & Chestertons Source: REIDIN & Chestertons
100 50 150 200 250 350 400300
Al Furjan
Emirates Living
Downtown Dubai
Dubai Sports City
Business Bay
Jumeirah Village Circle
International City
Palm Jumeirah
Dubai Marina
Dubailand
200 400 600 800 1,000
Jumeirah Village Circle
Al Furjan
Arabian Ranches
Business Bay
Downtown Dubai
Emirates Living
Dubai Marina
Dubailand
MBR City
Palm Jumeirah
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Dubai Marina
Jumeirah Village Circle
Jumeirah Lake Towers
Dubai Harbour
Dubai South
The Lagoons
Business Bay
Downtown Dubai
Dubailand
MBR City
500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Jumeirah Village Circle
Palm Jumeirah
Dubai South
Dubai Marina
Business Bay
Dubai Harbour
Dubailand
The Lagoons
MBR City
Downtown Dubai
Source: REIDIN & Chestertons Source: REIDIN & Chestertons
Source: REIDIN & Chestertons Source: REIDIN & Chestertons
100 50 150 200 250 350 400300
Al Furjan
Emirates Living
Downtown Dubai
Dubai Sports City
Business Bay
Jumeirah Village Circle
International City
Palm Jumeirah
Dubai Marina
Dubailand
200 400 600 800 1,000
Jumeirah Village Circle
Al Furjan
Arabian Ranches
Business Bay
Downtown Dubai
Emirates Living
Dubai Marina
Dubailand
MBR City
Palm Jumeirah
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Dubai Marina
Jumeirah Village Circle
Jumeirah Lake Towers
Dubai Harbour
Dubai South
The Lagoons
Business Bay
Downtown Dubai
Dubailand
MBR City
500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Jumeirah Village Circle
Palm Jumeirah
Dubai South
Dubai Marina
Business Bay
Dubai Harbour
Dubailand
The Lagoons
MBR City
Downtown Dubai
Source: REIDIN & Chestertons Source: REIDIN & Chestertons
Source: REIDIN & Chestertons Source: REIDIN & Chestertons
The Observer - Dubai Residential Q1 2019 10 The Observer - Dubai Residential Q1 2019 11
Contact Us Nick Witty, BSc (Hons) MRICSManaging [email protected]
Adam Wilson, BSc (Hons) MRICS ACIArbDirectorHead of International [email protected]
Vladimir Cvetinovic, MRICSAssociate DirectorValuations & Advisory - Abu [email protected]
Ivana Gazivoda VucinicHead of [email protected]
Ellen SleutjesHead of Property Management - [email protected]
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Disclaimer:All articles and data presented herein is intended for information purposes and has been compiled from sources deemed reliable including the Valu-ations and Research Department of Chestertons, sales and leasing staff, published data, and secondary sources. Though information is believed to be correct, materials presented is subject to errors, omissions, changes, or withdrawal without notice.
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