Risk, farmers’ attitude and nutrient use in agriculture
Dr. Giuseppina SicilianoCenter for Development, Environment, and Policy-CeDEPSchool of Oriental and African Studies - SOAS
China-UK Nutrient Management Workshop25-26 February 2014, Beijing, China
Risks and nutrient use in agriculture
Risk and uncertainty
• Uncertainty is a descriptive term concerning the environment surrounding farm
decisions, i.e. yield uncertainty, natural hazards, price uncertainty
• Risk refers to the probability of occurrence of alternative outcomes in decision making
(subjective probability attached by the individual to uncertain events)
• The terms risk aversion, risk neutrality, and risk taking are defined by reference to the
subjective preferences between uncertain and certain events
Risks and nutrient use in agriculture
2TVP
a
02X
f1TVP
TFC
ETVP
c
d
e
h
i
b
j
g
EX 1X
Tota
l va
lue
prod
uct Y
($
)
Fertilizer input X
TVP1= the total value product response to increasing the level of nitrogen input in a “good” year
TVP2= the total value product to increasing the level of nitrogen input in a “bad” year
ETVP= the expected total value product given the farmers’ views about the likelihood of occurrence of “good” and “bad” seasons
TFC= Total Cost Function
Risk-takerRisk-averse
Risk-neutral
Risks and nutrient use in agriculture
Two main categories of risks can be identified linked to nutrient use in agriculture:
• Environmental risk: an excessive use of fertilizers could result in negative
environmental impacts (i.e. soil degradation, climate change impacts, water pollution)
• Economic\production risk: reducing the amount of fertilizers could result in yield loss
(production risk\yield uncertainty) and therefore profit reduction (economic risk)
• In the face of uncertainty farmers may use production practices, such as an increased application of nutrients, to mitigate risk
Farmers’ attitude toward agricultural risks
Farmers are in general risk-averse:
Due to the risk-aversion attitude of farmers, economic risk affects farmers’ decisions more than environmental risk
excessive use of nutrientsfarmers’ decision of not adopting environmental mitigation strategies
Farmers’ attitude toward agricultural risks
Other factors linked to farmers’ attitude towards risk:
• Lack of information and knowledge about environmental risk and nutrient use
• Uncertainty about weather and soil conditions
• Low education levels
• Lack of trust in farm advisors or models
Farmers’ attitude toward agricultural risks
Hong-yun and Lian-ge, 2009 demonstrate that there is a negative relationship between fertilizer application and farmers’ education level and knowledge of environmental impact
Babcock, 1992 shows that increasing uncertainty about soil nitrogen concentration and weather conditions usually increases nitrogen applications by 36 percent
Sheriff, 2005 argues that if a farmer perceives the suggested rate of fertilization is too conservative or the models used by extension advisors under-estimate crop response in their fields, they may over-apply relative to the recommendation
Evidence shows that farmers systematically over-estimate the impact of additional nitrogen relative to agronomists’ models
Yang et al. 2012 show that farmers are willing to take advice from agricultural authorities as long as they are informed in a time-efficient manner and if the advice is consistent with their level of education
Agricultural risk-aversion: some policy recommendations
• Economic measures.If farmers over-apply nutrients to manage risk: risk-management instruments like crop and revenue insurance to reduce the levels of farmers’ risk aversion
• Mixed measures, extension and economic.If over-application occurs because farmers are slow to adopt new techniques or technologies that simultaneously reduce emissions and improve profits: extension efforts combined with temporary subsidies or cost shares can be effective
• Mixed measures, education, participation and economic. If risk-aversion barriers are in place: education programs, government subsidies or cost-sharing programs, combined with participatory approaches for fertilizer knowledge dissemination
What about China?
• The Chinese Academy of Sciences recommends a 60 percent reduction in fertilizer use in areas that are already “over-fertilized”
• Reducing the amount of fertilizer used in certain areas of China would substantially decrease greenhouse gas emissions without affecting crop productivity and the area’s natural carbon sink.
• Areas of heavy fertilizer use are located in the North China Plain and middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin
“Chinese farmers need to be educated on the economic and environmental costs of excessive fertilizer use”, says Tian (Asian Scientist, 2012)
(Tian et al. 2012)
Hong-yun H., Lian-ge Z. 2009. Farmers’ Character and Behavior of Fertilizer Application -Evidence from a Survey of Xinxiang County, Henan Province, China, Agricultural Sciences in China, 8(10), 1238-1245
Babcock B. A. 1992. The effects of uncertainty on optimal nitrogen application, Review of Agricultural Economics vol. 14 N. 2
Sheriff G. 2005. Efficient Waste? Why Farmers Over-Apply Nutrients and the Implications for Policy Design, Review of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 27, No. 4, 542–557
Yang X., Fang S., Lant C. L., Luo X., Zheng Z. 2012. Overfertilization in the Economically Developed and Ecologically Critical Lake Tai Region, China, Hum Ecol 40, 957–964
Gong Y., Baylis K., Xu J., Kozak R., Bull G. 2012. Risk Aversion and Farm Input Choice: Evidence from Field Experiments in China, Available at: http://works.bepress.com/kathy_baylis/27
References
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