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An Agile Approach to Directing Product Development Strategy against an Uncertain Future
Kevin SmithOperational Analysis Manager, Advanced Projects, Military Air Solutions
26 ISMOR
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Contents & Scope
– Dimensions of Uncertainty for Industry
– Outline the Analysis Approach
– Summarise Key points
Utilise Unmanned Aircraft Systems as the application example throughout
- Many uncertain dimensions to analysis process
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Key Dimensions of Uncertainty
1. Market – Military, Civil or Commercial customer?
– Budget available?
2. Requirements (i.e. User Requirements)– Known, evolving …
– Similar across users or discrete?
– Expressed differently by alternative Customers
3. Solution– Product or service?
– What product?
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Market Analysis – Key Criteria
1 2 3 4 5
MOD Industry Negative Neutral Positive
Not Available to Industry
Strong Supplier Lock-In
Strong Competitor Preference
Open Competition - No
Preferences
BAE SYSTEMS Preferred
Disposition to BAE SystemsLocked
Openness
1 2 3 4
Inorganic Solution
New Product/Service
Enhanced Product/Service
Existing Product/Service
Requires new capability, best
acquired through organic growth
Requires organic development of
existing capability.
Enhanced product or service within current capability
Existing product or service
Portfolio Alignment
1.
2.
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Market Analysis – Result Template2009-2020 Value ($m)
80
Tactical ISR Capability
Total Inorganic Solution New Product/ServiceEnhanced
Product/ServiceExisting
Product/Service
$80
Op
enn
ess
Portfolio Alignment
Lo
ck
ed In
du
stry
MO
D
Cu
sto
mer
Pre
fere
nce
to
BA
E S
yste
ms
Neg
ativ
eN
eutr
alP
osi
tive
DEVELOP COMPETE
ACQUIRE PARTICIPATE
- by country- by timescale- by …
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Requirements:Establish Global User Capability Taxonomy
Traceable toCustomer terminology
Civil Taxonomies or Applications
Civil Taxonomies or Applications
Military Capability TaxonomiesAUS
Military Capability TaxonomiesUS Home
Markets
End UserCapability Taxonomy
MilitarySpecific
‘Functionally’Common
Civil &Commercial
Specific
UR 1 UR 2 107 UAS ApplicationsUR 3 UR 4UR104
UR105
UR106
UR107
Generic role 1 Generic role 2 Generic role 9
UR 1 UR 2 107 UAS ApplicationsUR 3 UR 4UR104
UR105
UR106
UR107
Generic role 1 Generic role 2 Generic role 9
UR 1 UR 2 UAS ApplicationsUR 3 UR 4UR104
UR105
UR106
UR107
Generic role 1 Generic role 2 Generic role 9Bottom-up exploratory
Military Capability TaxonomiesUK
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Combat Intensity & Scale
Geo
gra
ph
ic S
pre
ad
Military Operations – Historical Projections
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Combat Intensity & Scale
Geo
gra
ph
ic S
pre
ad
1996
Cold War
NATO South
NATO North
Coalition
Coalition
National
Coalition
Coalition
Coalition
Inter State Conflict
Nu
clear
No
n N
ucl
ear
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Combat Intensity & Scale
Geo
gra
ph
ic S
pre
ad
Later…
NATO South
Coalition
Coalition
National
Coalition
Coalition
Coalition
Coalition
Coalition
Coalition
National
NATO
National
National
UN
UN
Inter State Conflict
Civil Conflict
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Combat Intensity & Scale
Geo
gra
ph
ic S
pre
ad
Even Later…
NATO South
Coalition
Coalition
National
Coalition
Coalition
Coalition
Coalition
Coalition
Coalition
National
NATO
National
National
UN
UN
EU
Coalition
UN Coalition
UK / FRInter State Conflict
Civil Conflict
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Combat Intensity & Scale
Geo
gra
ph
ic S
pre
ad
Today / Future
Coalition
Coalition
Coalition
Coalition
Coalition
Coalition
Coalition
Coalition
National
NATO
National
National
UN
UN
EU
Coalition
UN Coalition
UK / FR
Coalition
EU
National
UN
EU
Coalition
International Terrorism
WMD Proliferation
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Requirements:The Uncertain Future Security Environment
– In future there may be:– A lower probability of high threat scenarios involving conventional warfighting – A potential increase in nuclear armed states leading to wider regional instabilities and
hence International Conflict – A reduced incidence of interstate warfare between established states that are
internationally recognised – An increased potential for intrastate conflict & warfare in less advanced states – An increase in criminal and irregular activity associated with failed or failing states
– Consequently there may be:– An increased demand for Intervention & Stabilisation Operations which highlight the
increasing importance & value of CIMIC– An increase in Counterinsurgency Operations which may also arise as a
consequence of intervention– An increase in Maritime Security Operations to counter smuggling, piracy, irregular
activity and in response to contentious sea control activities by developing maritime powers
– An increase in covert operations around the world to counter terrorism and to counter proliferation of WMD
– An increase in proxy wars and the use of “private” security
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Coyote
Solutions: Alternate VTOL UAVs (for Maritime)
CamcopterIntegrator
Fulmar
ScanEagle
SAAB Skeldar
EADS Sharc
BAES IAV2
EADS Orka HETELAmpersand
CQ-10B SnowGoose
K-Max
Fire ScoutHummingbird X-2
X-49A
Concept
Groen Hawk 4Eagle Eye CarterCopter
AD-150
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Rea
ch
Per
sist
ence
Mu
lti-
spec
tral
Rap
id r
esp
on
se
Rap
id E
xplo
itat
ion
+++
Basing flexibility ++
Range +++ +++ -- ---
+
Sensor Capability +++
+++
Comms Performance +++
Core Analysis process:Capability To Solution Translation Framework
Operational CapabilityMeasures – ‘URD’
Sy
ste
m p
erf
orm
an
ce
Ch
ara
cte
ris
tic
s (
SR
D)
Parameters / emphasis driven by Operational Use- Customer / role specific
Trade-offs required withinsolution development
AssessSolution
DeriveSolution
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Overall Analysis Process
Herti Mantis VTOL GA-22
Solutions
Military Specific
$0 (0%) $0 (0%) $0 (0%) $0 (0%)
$1,027 (6%) $2,485 (15%) $180 (1%) $0 (0%)
- Basic Trainer Replacement- Transport Replacement
- MPA Requirement (manned & unmanned)
- Civil UAV Requirement- Tactical UAV Requirement
$792 (5%) $0 (0%) $0 (0%) $0 (0%)
- C-130 Replacement
$11,614 (72%) $0 (0%) $0 (0%) $0 (0%)
- Contracted- Indigenous
- Further existing
$0 (0%) $0 (0%) $0 (0%) $0 (0%)
Total Inorganic Solution New Product/ServiceEnhanced
Product/ServiceExisting
Product/Service
$16,098
Ind
us
try
Ne
ga
tiv
eN
eu
tra
lP
os
itiv
e
Op
enn
ess
Portfolio Alignment
Lo
cked
Cu
sto
mer
Pre
fere
nce
to
BA
E S
yste
ms
MO
D
DEVELOP COMPETE
ACQUIRE PARTICIPATE
Market Definition
Global ‘End User’ Capability Taxonomy
AccessibleMarketNeeds
Rea
ch
Pers
iste
nce
Mul
ti-sp
ectr
al
Rap
id re
spon
se
Rap
id E
xplo
itatio
n
+++
Basing flexibility ++
Range +++ +++ -- ---
+
Sensor Capability +++
+++
Comms Performance +++
Rea
ch
Pers
iste
nce
Mul
ti-sp
ectr
al
Rap
id re
spon
se
Rap
id E
xplo
itatio
n
+++
Basing flexibility ++
Range +++ +++ -- ---
+
Sensor Capability +++
+++
Comms Performance +++
SolutionAssessment
SolutionsPortfolio
Rea
ch
Per
sist
ence
Mu
lti-
spec
tral
Rap
id r
esp
on
se
Rap
id E
xplo
itat
ion
+++
Basing flexibility ++
Range +++ +++ -- ---
+
Sensor Capability +++
+++
Comms Performance +++
Rea
ch
Pers
iste
nce
Mul
ti-sp
ectr
al
Rap
id re
spon
se
Rap
id E
xplo
itatio
n
+++
Basing flexibility ++
Range +++ +++ -- ---
+
Sensor Capability +++
+++
Comms Performance +++
SolutionDevelopment
Herti Mantis VTOL GA-22
Solutions
Military Specific
CompetitionPerformanceAssessment
New Solutionor
Enhanced Solution
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GenericCapability
L1
Analysis Rigour – Confidence & Resource
CustomerSpecific Capability
Qualitative / parameter based
SME Opinion
Effectiveness inCustomer Environment
Analysis Tools
SE ExperimentationVisualisation & Promotion
in Customer Representative Environment
Operational Evaluation / Warfighting
Fidelity
Time
Cost
Is it viable ?
Should we ?
Might it sell ?
Just how good is it ?
Analysis fidelity must be driven by Confidence requirement / Business risk, matched to resources available …
L2
L3
L4
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Example Level 2 Parameter Framework:Range & Responsiveness
0: No constraints at all!1: Response time is not critical, fairly routine task.2: Need to be responsive but only within the day (e.g. non 3: Need to be responsive but within hours.4: Need to be responsive (e.g. call for assistance but not an emergency situation)5: Need to be highly responsive, being at an AOI very quickly after being instructed (e.g. Reacting to an emergency call)
This describes any reqiurements regarding the timeliness of getting to the AOI or changing from one AOI to another.
This reflects any requirements for minimum and maximum speed arising from operational factors external to the system that will override the general desire for efficiency or a need to perform the task in a specified time.
Responsiveness9
0: Point system only (e.g. Barrage balloon!)1: Local , say within 20-50nm (Effectively a point system tied to a particular base or location e.g. emergency communications coverage for a specific city)2: Tactical, say 50-100nm (System basically travels with the operator)3: Sub national / Regional - Few 100nm (say 100-300nm) (e.g. civil customer operating typically within a given county or corps level military assets)4: Operational / National 300-1000nm5: Strategic / International > 1000nm
This is the maximum distance from the operating base at which the system will be expected to be capable of carrying out its task. Ignore the contribution of factors such as payload range at this stage. This is assessed separately from endurance / persistence, and is intended to a large extent to drive out issues to do with the need for non line of sight communications.
Distance from Launch Recovery Base to AOI
5
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UK Maritime UAS – L4 Approach required!
Maritime/Littoral Scenario Development (Nigeria)
Generic Naval Task Group Roles and Functions
Systems v RolesEvaluation
Force Mixes ~6
Solutions:- Existing manned systems- Future manned/unmanned systems- BAES UAS Portfolio- Other manned/unmanned (gaps)
RN/RM Plans, Practice & Doctrine
Establish likely fleet/market size
Derive Maritime UAS Requirements
Watching brief on other nations*
Understand Naval Ops
Explore Force-Mix Solutions
* USA, Australia, Canada, EU/NATO, India
Vignettes
Concept Suitability
Filter
Analysis of Force-Mix Solutions
Exploit Analysis
Product development New concepts
PreferredSystem-of-Systems
System-of-Systems Formulation
Qualitative Analysis
Force Mix Quantities & Costs
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Summary
– Objective, scaleable, evidence-based approach enabling/driving an integrated UAS solution portfolio development
– Enables the alignment to market needs of –– Concept development & new concept generation
– Product investment (inc technology) planning
– Integrated UAS portfolio marketing
– Critically, it is– A self-consistent analysis across the Global operation
– Underpinned by Information / Knowledge management
– Rationale, traceable, agile
– Rigorous where necessary
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Questions ?
[email protected] 855168
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