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New York State Sea Level Rise Task ForceReport to the Legislature
DRAFT
DraftforPublicComment November 2010
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SeaLevelRiseTaskForceMembersPete
Grannis,Former Commissioner,NYS
Department
ofEnvironmental
Conservation, Task
ForceChair
FredAnders,Chief,NaturalResourcesManagement,DepartmentofState(representingRuthNoemColn,Acting
SecretaryofState)
JohnGibb,Director,StateOfficeofEmergencyManagement
FredNuffer,PublicAssistanceLiason,MitigationPrograms,StateOfficeofEmergencyManagement(representing
JohnGibb.Director,StateOfficeofEmergencyManagement)
IvanLafayette,DeputyInsuranceSuperintendentforCommunityAffairs,DepartmentofInsurance(representing
JamesWrynn,Superintendent,DepartmentofInsurance)
RichardSvenson,DirectoroftheDivisionofEnvironmentalHealthProtection,DepartmentofHealth(representing
RichardF.Daines,M.D.,Commissioner,DepartmentofHealth)
LisaWeiss,Route9AUrbanDesignDirector(representingStanleyGee,ActingCommissioner,Departmentof
Transportation)
AdamFreed,DeputyDirector,NewYorkCityMayorsOfficeofLongTermPlanningandSustainability
CarrieMeekGallagher,CommissionerofEnvironmentandEnergy,SuffolkCounty
MichaelGerrard,AndrewSabinProfessorofProfessionalPracticeandDirector,ColumbiaLawSchoolCenterfor
ClimateChangeLaw
GerceidaJones,
Professor
of
Astronomy,
New
York
University
JackMattice,Director,NewYorkSeaGrant(retired)
JerryMulligan,Commissioner,WestchesterCountyDepartmentofPlanning
SarahNewkirk,CoastalProgramDirector,TheNatureConservancy
BradTito,DeputyDirectorofEnvironmentalCoordination,OfficeoftheNassauCountyExecutive
JamesStaudenraus,VicePresidentofOperations,GeorgeHenryLtd
JohnWalters,III,Chief,PortWashingtonFireDepartment
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Acknowledgements
TheNew
York
State
Sea
Level
Rise
Task
Force
was
created
by
an
act
of
the
New
York
State
Legislature
(Chapter613oftheLawsofNewYork)inAugust2007.NewYorkStateDepartmentofEnvironmental
Conservation(DEC)CommissionerPeteGrannis,ChairoftheTaskForce,assignedSpecialCounselRobin
Schlafftoestablishandchairasteeringcommittee.KristinMarcellservedassteeringcommitteevice
chair.
Thesteeringcommittee,comprisedofstateagencystaffandrepresentativesofnongovernmental
organizations
(NGOs),
spent
an
extraordinary
amount
of
time
researching,
discussing
and
deliberating
issuesaddressedinthereport.Membersofthesteeringcommitteecoordinatedtheworkoffivework
groups:CommunityResilience,EcosystemsandNaturalResources,Infrastructure,LegalandPublic
Outreach. Eachworkgroupincludedrepresentativesfromacademia,businesses,NGOs,environmental
justiceandcommunitygroups,andfederal,stateandlocalagencies. Thisreportistheresultoftheir
efforts,andtheTaskForcegratefullyacknowledgestheircontributions.
ProjectionsofsealevelriseaffectingNewYorkStatewereprovidedbytheColumbiaUniversityCenter
forClimate
Systems
Research
based
on
work
undertaken
for
the
New
York
City
Panel
on
Climate
Change.
AlanBelensz,DirectoroftheDECOfficeofClimateChange,providedacriticalreviewofanearlydraft.
AdditionalDECstaffcontributorstowriting,editingandproductionofthisreportincludeAudreyTheir,
ElaineBloom,BernadetteLaMannaandEllenBidell. KimFarrowandMaryKadlecekmaintainedtheSea
LevelRiseTaskForcewebpage.MarkLoweryprovidededitorialassistanceandmanagedpublicoutreach
efforts.
Thedevelopmentofthisreportincludedapublicreviewofthesealevelriseprojections,theTaskForce
processandanearlydraftofthereportandrecommendations.Throughouttheprocess,participationof
stakeholdersandtheirthoughtfulcommentsimprovedthequalityofthereport.
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TableofContents
ExecutiveSummary
.................................................................................................................
5
Introduction............................................................................................................................ 8
KeyTerms......................................................................................................................................10
SeaLevelRise:CausesandProjections...........................................................................................11
HazardsofSeaLevelRise...............................................................................................................13
Findings
.................................................................................................................................
15
Recommendations................................................................................................................ 16
Ecosystems............................................................................................................................ 17
Low toModerateEnergyShorelines.............................................................................................20
SubmergedAquaticVegetation......................................................................................................21
BarrierIslands................................................................................................................................22
CoastalBluffs.................................................................................................................................23
MarineRockyIntertidalAreas........................................................................................................24
FreshwaterResources....................................................................................................................24
Ecosystems:ActionsNeededtoAdapttoSeaLevelRise.................................................................25
PublicWorksandInfrastructure............................................................................................ 28
Communications............................................................................................................................
31
Energy............................................................................................................................................31
ShorelineProtectiveStructures......................................................................................................31
SolidWaste....................................................................................................................................32
Transportation...............................................................................................................................33
Drinking
Water
Supplies
.................................................................................................................
33
WastewaterManagementSystems................................................................................................34
PublicWorksandInfrastructure:ActionsNeededtoAdapttoSeaLevelRise.................................35
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Communities......................................................................................................................... 37
PublicHealth..................................................................................................................................41
LossofShelter................................................................................................................................41
DisruptedLivelihoodsandLossofEconomicVitality.......................................................................42
QualityofLifeandCommunityCohesion........................................................................................42
Communities:ActionsNeededtoAdapttoSeaLevelRise..............................................................44
MeetingtheChallenge.......................................................................................................... 48
Recommendationsof
the
Sea
Level
Rise
Task
Force
..............................................................
52
AppendixA:MembersoftheTaskForceandWorkgroups.................................................... 77
AppendixB:PublicOutreachSummary................................................................................. 84
AppendixC:OrganizationalFramework................................................................................ 86
AppendixD:SummaryofStateSeaLevelRise(SLR)PolicyDevelopmentMidAtlanticand
Northeast.............................................................................................................................. 88
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ExecutiveSummary
NewYork
State's
extensive
ocean
coastline
has
places
that
we
know,
that
we
remember
and
that
have
shapedusinsomeway.Atmorethan3,000miles,thestatescoastlineincludesmanynotablelocations
MontaukPoint,ConeyIsland,RobertMosesStatePark,BatteryParkandtheHudsonRiver'sshoresfrom
NewYorkCitytothefederaldamatTroy.Morethan60%ofNewYorkersliveinhomesonornearthese
waterfrontareas.EachshorelineareaisuniqueandpartoftheessenceofNewYork.Buttheseplaceswill
changeassealevelrises,andthedifferenceswillbecomemoreobviousastheseacontinuestoriseto
unprecedentedlevels.Aresultoftheworldschangingclimate,arisingseawillaltermorethanjustthe
coastline.The
entire
state
will
feel
the
effects
as
residents
and
asignificant
amount
of
the
landscape
are
impacted.TheseareasarediverseandinterconnectedandshareNewYorksrichagriculture,commercial,
economicandenvironmentalhistoryandresources.
ThecommunitiesalongNewYorkState'scoastline,includingtheirstructures,theirresidents,their
environmentandthesurroundingnaturalresources,areproductsofdecisionsmadeoverthecourseof
manyyears.Thesedecisionsshapeddecadesofinvestment,developmentandconservation.Whilethe
extentof
the
impacts
to
coastal
communities
from
arising
sea
are
not
fully
known,
even
the
most
conservativeprojectionsmakeclearthattherewillbedramaticchangesinthiscentury.Thus,how
coastalcommunitiesandourstateaddressthiscollectivechallengeisimportanttotoday'sdecision
makers.Theresponsesneededtoprotectcommunitiesfromthethreatposedbysealevelrisewilltake
time,andnowthatthechallengesarebetterunderstood,governmentisobligatedtoprotectitscitizens
whilethereistimetodosoeffectively.NewYorkmustfocusonthesmartuseoflimitedresourcesto
addresstheimpactsassociatedwithsealevelrise.
THESEALEVELRISETASKFORCE
In2007,theNewYorkStateLegislaturecreatedtheSeaLevelRiseTaskForceandchargeditwith
preparingareportthataddressestheseissues,includingrecommendationsforanactionplantoprotect
coastalcommunitiesandnaturalresourcesfromrisingsealevels.TheNewYorkStateDepartmentof
EnvironmentalConservationleadstheTaskForce,whichhasadiversemembershipthatincludes
representativesof
state
and
local
government
agencies,
non
governmental
organizations
and
affected
communities.ThelegislaturedirectedtheTaskForcetoevaluatewaysofprotectingNewYorks
remainingcoastalecosystemsandnaturalhabitats,andincreasingcoastalcommunityresilienceinthe
faceofsealevelrise,applyingthebestavailablescienceastosealevelriseanditsanticipatedimpacts.
TheTaskForcehasstudiedanddeliberated,withpublicparticipation,thecomplexissuesinvolvedwith
l l i i N Y k S Thi i l di fi di d d i i h l f h
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THESEAISRISING
Ourclimate
is
changing,
causing
the
worlds
seas
to
rise.
Since
1970,
New
York
State
has
witnessed
incrementallyhigherincreasesinaveragetemperaturesthantherestoftheUnitedStates,anincrease
nearlytwicetheglobalaverage.Thesechangeshaveresultedinwarmerwintersandhottersummers
andotherchangesintheformoffewer,butheaviersnowsandheavier,moreintenserainfalland
storms.Thewarmingproducedbyglobalclimatechangecausesthesealeveltorisebecausewarmer
watertakesupmorespaceandhighertemperaturesaremeltingicesheetsaroundtheglobe.NewYork
Harborhasexperiencedanincreaseinsealevelofmorethan15inchesinthepast150years,with
harbortide
gauges
showing
arise
of
between
4and
6inches
since
1960.
TheTaskForcelookedtothebestavailablesciencetoestimatepotentialsealevelrise.Notallregionsof
themarinecoastwillbeimpactedinthesameway,andthisreportfocusesonestimatesfortwoareas:
thelowerHudsonValleyandLongIsland,andthemidHudsonValleyandCapitalRegion.Sealevelrise
affectingtheLowerHudsonValleyandLongIslandisprojectedtobe2to5inchesbythe2020sand12
to23inchesbytheendofthiscentury.However,rapidmeltoflandbasedicecoulddoublethese
projectionsin
the
next
few
decades,
with
apotential
rise
of
up
to
55
inches
by
the
end
of
the
century.
SealevelriseinthemidHudsonValleyandCapitalRegionwillbesomewhatlessbutwillfollowsimilar
trends.Thecombinationofrisingsealevel,continuingclimatechange,andmoredevelopmentinhigh
riskareashaveraisedthelevelofNewYorksvulnerabilitytopowerfulcoastalstorms.Without
meaningfulactiononanumberofkeyfronts,thisvulnerabilitywillincreaseinareaandmagnitudeover
time.
EVERYNEWYORKTIDALCOASTALCOMMUNITYWILLBEAFFECTEDBYSEALEVELRISE
SealevelrisewillhavedramaticimplicationsforNewYorkscoastalcommunitiesandtheirnatural
resources,affectingtheentireoceanandestuarinecoastlineofthestate.Everycommunityalongthe
HudsonRiverfromthefederaldamatTroytoNewYorkHarborandalongLongIslandSoundandthe
Atlanticcoastlinewillbeaffected.
Sealevelrisewillcontinuetoincreasetherisktodevelopedareas,futuredevelopmentandcoastal
habitatswhicharealreadyhighlyvulnerabletopowerfulcoastalstorms.Manyneighborhoodsandtheir
associatedbuildings,roads,andutilitieswillbedirectlyaffected,withthemostvulnerablecommunities
permanentlyinundated.
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eventsandfloodingwillbemoreoverwhelmedinareaswheretheintensityofimpactsincreases.
Secondaryimpactssuchaswaterbornepollutionassociatedwithfloodingofcontaminatedlands
locatedthroughout
coastal
communities
may
affect
water
quality
and
ecosystems.
Public
health
will
be
furtheraffectedbyvectorbornediseasesandimpactstowatersuppliescausedbychangesinrainfall,
heatandsaltwaterintrusion.
NewYorksnaturalresourcesandecosystemswillbegreatlyimpactedbythehumanresponsetosea
levelrise.Naturalsystemssuchaswetlandscurrentlyprovidecriticalbenefits,includingflood
protection,tocoastalcommunitiesonalargescaleatalmostnocost.Thesebenefitswouldbe
prohibitivelyexpensive
to
replicate
with
human
engineered
solutions.
Responses
that
harden
the
coastline,suchasseawallsandbulkheads,preventnaturalsystemsfrommigratinginlandaswater
levelsincrease,leavingthemtodrowninplace.Particularlyinlessurbanizedareas,thesechoicesmay
bemoreexpensiveandlesseffectiveoverthelongtermthanrelocationorelevationofatrisk
structures.Inaddition,suchsolutionswillalsolimitpublicaccesstobeaches.
THETASKFORCEREPORT
TheTaskForceworkedformorethantwoyearstoproducethisreport.Thereportexaminesthe
complexitiesofsealevelriseanditsimplicationsforNewYorkinthetwentyfirstcentury.Itincludes9
findingsand14specificrecommendationsforaction.
Thereportsfindingscoalescearoundtheneedforimmediateaction.Everyday,NewYork'sresidents,
governmentsandbusinessesmakedecisionsthataffectthefuturevulnerabilityof thestatescoastline.
Themagnitude
and
scope
of
the
challenge
posed
by
sea
level
rise
require
that
relevant
and
accurate
informationaboutclimaterisk,resilienceandadaptationbecomepartoftheseeverydaydecisions.The
vulnerabilitiesofcoastalcommunitiesmustbeinventoriedandassessed,andthisinformationshared
withresidentsofatriskcommunities.Appropriateresponsesmustbeformulatedandimplemented.
Governmentpoliciesandactionsmustbecoordinatedandprioritizedtoassistcommunitiesatgreatest
andmostimmediateriskinthemostcosteffectivewaysandinwaysthatrecognizetheimportanceof
ournaturalcoastalresourcesandtheirroleinNewYorksfuture.Theseeffortsmustbeguidedby
accuratescience,
up
to
date
mapping
and
effective
planning
tools.
WehopethattheTaskForcesworkwillsparkaction.Thepublicanditsgovernmentsmustbeinvested
inmeetingthechallengeofsealevelrise.Thechallengeisreal,andsealevelrisewillprogressregardless
ofNewYorksresponse.
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Introduction
Thesea
is
rising,
driven
by
changes
in
global
climate,
and
New
York
States
low
lying
marine
and
estuarinecoastalareastheirpeople,businesses,infrastructure,andecosystemsareatrisk.Morethan
62%ofNewYork'spopulationlivesinmarinecoastalcounties,andtheseareashavetremendous
economicvalueintermsofcommerceandnaturalbenefitssuchashabitat,waterqualityimprovement,
floodcontrol,andstormprotection.SealevelalongNewYork'scoasthasbeenrisingattherateof
almostonefootpercenturyforatleast100years,resultinginmoreseverestormimpacts,shoreline
erosion,andcoastalfloodingexperiencedbycoastalcommunitiestoday.Therateofriseisexpectedto
increasewith
global
warming,
perhaps
doubling
over
the
next
century.
1
Apowerfulcoastalstormoccurringtodayposesgreatdangerto
theregion,andthisthreatwillintensifyassealevelcontinuesto
rise.NewYorkStatemustinitiateactiontosafeguarditsnatural
resources,humancommunitiesandeconomicassets.Wemust
worktoincreasecommunityresiliencethecapacitytowithstand
orrecoverfromlossordamagewhileembracingalongterm
commitmenttounderstandevolvingthreatsandadjustresponses
intothefuture.
TheSeaLevelRiseTaskForce(TaskForce)wasestablishedby
statutein2007.2Itwaschargedwithsummarizingwhatisknown
abouttheimpactofsealevelriseandrecommendingactionsthatwillbothprotectcoastalecosystems
andhelphumancoastalcommunitiestoincreaseresilienceandadapttorisingsealevels.TheTaskForce
wasnot
charged
with
studying
other
climate
related
impacts
to
ouroceans,suchasacidification,changestooceancurrentsand
othereffectsofwarmingoceantemperatures.
Infrastructurecriticaltoboththestate
andnationaleconomieswillbesubjected
toincreasedriskofcoastalstormdamage
assealevelrises.
TheNewYorkStateDepartmentofEnvironmentalConservation
leadstheTaskForce,whoseworkgroupsincluderepresentatives
frommultiplestateagenciesandauthorities,federalandlocal
government,community
and
non
governmental
organizations,
businessesandacademia.3
Risingseasthreatentopermanently
inundatevaluablecoastalhabitats.
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TheTaskForcehassoughtpubliccommentandengagementthroughouttheprocessofdevelopingthis
report.4
AlthoughtheTaskForceseffortistheonlyonefocused
primarilyonsealevelriseinNewYorkState,itexists
withinalargercontextofcomplementaryinitiativesthat
haveexaminedclimatechangeandcoastalhazards.5
Thewidevarietyofstate,localgovernmentandprivate
partnersparticipatingincurrenteffortstoassessclimate
changeriskareusingthesameprojectionsofsealevel
riseandcoastalhazardsindevelopingpolicyforNew
YorkState.Theyalsoagreeonthetypesofactionsthat
shouldbetakentoreducelongtermvulnerabilityinour
coastalareas.Thisworkwillnowhelpshapetheefforts
oftheNewYorkStateClimateActionCouncil(CAC)asit
draftsthestatesClimateActionPlan.
Thoughscientificandpolicyunknownsremain,inactionis
notaresponsibleoption.NewYorkState,workingwith
otherlevelsofgovernment,needstoaddressthe
challengespresentedbysealevelrise,evenascoastal
communitiesandecosystemsareincreasinglyaffected.
The
following
discussion
outlines
the
basic
hazards
and
challengesofsealevelriseandpresentstheTaskForces
recommendationsforprotectingthestates
communitiesbothhumanbuiltandnaturalinthefaceofthesedangers.
CountiesImpactedby
SeaLevelRise
Albany Bronx Columbia Dutchess Greene Kings(Brooklyn) Nassau NewYork(Manhattan) Orange Putnam Queens Rensselaer Richmond(Staten
Island)
Rockland Suffolk Ulster Westchester
4SeeAppendixB:PublicOutreachSummary.
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KeyTerms6
Beachnourishment:
the
addition
of
sand,
often
dredged
from
offshore,
to
an
eroding
shoreline
toenlargeorcreateabeacharea,offeringtemporaryshoreprotectionandrecreational
opportunities
Coast:Inthisreport,thistermreferstoNewYorkStatesmarinecoastlineonly,nottotheGreat
Lakesorotherinlandcoastlines.
Coastalhazards:impactsassociatedwithsealevelrise,stormsurge,winddrivenwavesand
erosion
CoastalRisk
Management
Zone:
areas
to
be
classified
as
currently
at
significant
risk
of
coastal
floodingduetostormsandareasprojectedtobeathighriskoffloodingfromprojectedsealevel
riseandstrongstorms
Ecosystemservices:thebenefitspeopleobtainfromecosystemsthatcommunitieswouldhave
toreplaceartificiallyifthenaturalsystemswerelost.Thesebenefitsincludefloodcontrol,water
qualityimprovementandstormprotection.
Naturalprotectivefeatures:naturalsystemssuchaswetlands,dunes,barrierislandsand
aquaticvegetation
that
provide
large
scale
flood
protection
from
wind
driven
waves
and
storm
surgeaswellasmanyotherhumanandecosystembenefits
Nonstructuralshorelineprotectionornonstructuralmeasures:elevationand/orrelocationof
structuresandtheircontentstolimitflooddamageoraccommodationoffloodwaters(taking
noprotectiveactionaswaterrises)
Shoreprotection:arangeofactivitiesthatfocusonprotectinglandfrominundation,erosionor
storminducedfloodingthroughtheconstructionofvariousstructuresortheadditionof
sedimentsto
the
shore
Softshoreprotection,shorelinesofteningorsoftengineering:amethodofshoreprotection
thatpreventsshoreerosionthroughtheuseofnaturalmaterialssimilartothosealreadyfound
inagivenlocation,suchasaddingsandtoanerodingbeachorplantingvegetationwithroots
thatretainsoilsalongtheshore
Structuralshorelineprotectionorstructuralmeasures:constructionssuchasjetties,bulkheads,
dikes,riprapandseawallsdesignedtolessenoreliminatetheerosiveeffectofwaveson
propertyor
infrastructure.
Similar
terms
are
shoreline
hardening
and
traditional
shoreline
stabilization.TheStateofNewYorkconsidersbeachnourishmenttobeasoftstructural
measure.
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SeaLevelRise:CausesandProjections
Sealevelriseiscausedbyacomplexsuiteoffactors.Climatechangecontributestoglobalsealevelrise
intwoways:1)higherseawatertemperaturescausethevolumeofseawatertoincrease,aphenomenon
knownasthermalexpansionand2)meltingicecaps,glaciersandicesheetsincreasethetotalamount
ofseawater.
Inaddition,thelandsurfaceisslowlysinkingincoastalregionsofNewYorkState,withtheexceptionof
theHudsonEstuarynorthofKingston.Thismovementisaresultofgeologicalforcesandimpactsof
humanactivityanddevelopment.Itaffectslocal,orrelative,ratesofsealevelrise.Effectsofalltypesof
sealevel
rise
are
compounded
by
potential
increases
in
extreme
precipitation
and
storms
associated
withclimatechange.
Theinterplayofthesevariousfactorsandthegapsinourcurrentknowledgemakeprecisesealevel
predictionsforanygivengeographicareadifficult.However,allmodelsagreethattheoutlookforour
regionisdramaticandwillchangethecoastinfundamentalways.TheNewYorkCityPanelonClimate
ChangeandthedraftNewYorkStateClimateImpactsAssessment(ClimAID)aggregatedtheprojections
formean
annual
sea
level
rise
shown
in
Table
1below.
The
New
York
State
Climate
Action
Council
is
usingtheseprojectionsindevelopingitsClimateActionPlan,andtheTaskForcehaschosentousethis
rangeofprojectionsasthefoundationforitsriskassessmentsandrecommendations.
TABLE1:ProjectedSeaLevelRiseinNewYork1
LowerHudsonValley&Long
Island
2020s 2050s 2080s
Sealevelrise2
2to5in 7to12in 12to23in
Sealevelrise
withrapidice
meltscenario3
5to10in 19to29in 41to55in
MidHudsonValley&Capital
Region
2020s 2050s 2080s
Sealevelrise2 1to4in 5to9in 8to18in
Sealevelrisewithrapidice
meltscenario3
4to9in 17to26in 37to50in
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TheseprojectionsaresupportedbyempiricaldatadocumentingrecentratesofsealevelriseinNew
YorkState.Forexample,gaugesattheNewYorkCityBatteryindicatethatsealevelinthe2000sis4to6
incheshigher
than
in
the
early
1960s.
7
The
New
York
City
Panel
on
Climate
Change
found
that
as
global
temperatureshaveincreased,theregionalsealevelhasrisenmorerapidlyinthepast100to150years
thanoverthelast1,000years.8
Beyondmodelsandmeasurements,NewYorkershavetheirownfirsthandexperiencetoconfirmthat
thedangersoffloodingandstormsurgesexacerbatedbyrisingwatersarerealandimmediate.
FiveCategory3hurricaneshavemadefirstlandfallinNewEnglandsince1900.Withtheexceptionof
one,all
made
landfall
along
Long
Island's
coastline.9
In
1938,
the
Great
New
England
Hurricane
or
Long
IslandExpressstruckLongIslandcommunitieswithdevastatingresults.Wavesupto50feethigh
submergedlowlyingareas,hundredsofhomesweredestroyed,andatleast50liveswerelost.The
stormwouldhavebeenconsideredaCategory3using
today'smeasurementscaleforhurricaneintensity.Ifthe
samehurricaneweretohitnow,withcurrentlevelsof
coastaldevelopmentinNewYorkandNewEngland,the
totalinsured
loss
to
commercial
and
residential
property
associatedwiththestormsurgefloodingalonehasbeen
estimatedatbetween$6billionand$10.5billion(2008
dollars).10
Twentyfouryearslater,in1962,apowerfulNoreaster
knownastheAshWednesdayStormstrucktheeastern
thirdof
the
United
States,
generating
ocean
waves
of
20
to30feet.11SurgeattheBatterywasmorethan7.5feet
andmorethan9feetatWilletsPointinQueens.Eastof
FireIslandInlet,twoandahalfdays(fivehightides)ofhighwatercarvedthroughdunesandcreateda
newinlet1,200feetwideatWesthamptonBeach.ConeyIslandwasentirelyinundated.
Only
a
small,
sagging
portion
of
the
main
buildingoftheWestBayBeachClubinQuantuck,Suffolk
County,remainedafterthe1938"LongIsland
Express"hurricane.
7Colle,B.A.,K.Rojowsky,andF.Buonaiuto.2010.NewYorkCitystormsurges:Climatologyandananalysisofthe
windandcycloneevolution.JournalofAppliedMeteorologyandClimatology49:85100.PubID#3772.
8NewYorkCityPanelonClimateChangeClimateRiskInformation,
http://www.nyc.gov/html/om/pdf/2009/NPCC_CRI.pdf
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AtSeagate,wavesovertoppedandseverelydamagedtimberbulkheads.InJamaicaBay,lowlyingareas
werecompletelyflooded.TheRockawaysexperiencedsevereerosionandlosteighthomes.Estimatesof
damageon
Staten
Island,
Brooklyns
South
Shore,
the
Rockaways,
Long
Beach
Island,
Long
Island,
Fire
Island,WestchesterandthePeconicshorelinetotaledmorethan$220millionintodaysdollars
(adjustedforinflation).12
Morerecently,aNoreasteronDecember11and12,1992causedastormsurgeofnearly7.75feetat
theBattery,propelledbywindgustsof80to90mph.TunnelsandsubwaysinlowerManhattanflooded,
asdidportionsoftheManhattanEastsideFDRdrive,areasofSeagate,BroadChannelandmanycoastal
townsonLongIsland.
NewYorkhasalwaysbeenvulnerabletotropicalstorms,hurricanesandmorecommonly
Noreasters.Withoutactiontoreducecommunityvulnerability,similarstormswillinthefuturethreaten
manymorelives,publicinfrastructureandprivatepropertyinNewYorkscoastalareasduetoever
increasingdevelopmentandpopulationgrowth.Withelevatedsealevelsandassociatedhigherstorm
surges,thegeographicextentofvulnerableareasanddamagewillincreasedramatically.
Inaddition
to
the
devastating
impacts
of
these
acute
events,
gradually
encroaching
seawater
will
have
chronic,incrementaleffectsoncoastalecosystemstructureandfunctionsandonhumanusesofthe
coast.
HazardsofSeaLevelRise
Sealevelrise,byitselfandincombinationwithothercoastalhazards,suchasintensestormsandthe
effectsofclimatechange,willhavemanyinteractingconsequences.
RisingWaterTable
Highergroundwaterlevelsmaysubmergeinfrastructureelements,interferingwiththeirfunctionand
preventingaccess.Failedsepticsystemscancreatepublichealthproblemsandharmecosystems.Saline
groundwatercancorrodevulnerableinfrastructurecomponents.Ahigherwatertablealsoreducesthe
abilityofthesoiltoabsorbrunoff,increasingthelikelihoodofflooding.
SaltwaterIntrusion
Asseawaterrises,itencroachesuponestuarine,brackishandfreshwaterenvironments,increasingtheir
salinityandpermanentlyalteringecosystems.Saltwaterintrusionalsothreatensaquifersandother
freshwatersourcesofpublicdrinkingwater.
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InundationandFlooding
Permanentinundationreferstothoseareasthatarecompletelyunderwaterorareunderwaterfora
portionof
each
day.
Frequently
flooded
areas
experience
inundation
regularly,
in
contrast
to
episodically
floodedareas,whichareatriskonlyfromextremeweatherevents.Risingsealevelswillexpandthe
areasexperiencingalltypesofinundationandfloodingandpushtheirboundariesfurtherinland.
Episodesofseverefloodingwillalsobecomemorefrequentasthesearises.13
StormSurge
Stormsurgeisadramaticelevationoftheoceansurfacethatleadstorapidflooding.Itiscausedbythe
combinedeffectsofoceanwaterpushedlandwardduringastorm,lowpressureattheseasurface,and
hightides.Withhigherbaselinesealevels,theeffectsofstormsurgewillbefeltfurtherinland.Increasedstormintensitywillcompoundcoastalerosionanddamagefromstormsurge.
Realisticprojectionsoftheeffectofthesephenomenainanygivenlocationovertimearecrucialin
ordertoproperlyplantoreducerisk.Development,humanpopulationsandecosystemswillinteract
withsealevelriseandrelatedcoastalhazardsandwitheachother,accordingtolocalcircumstances.
Thefollowingdiscussionsummarizesthemajorelementsthatwillaffectandbeaffectedbysealevel
rise.
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Findings1.Sealevelriseandcoastalfloodingfromstormsurgearealreadyimpactingandwillincreasingly
affectNewYorksentireoceanandestuarinecoastlinefromMontaukPointtotheBatteryandup
theHudsonRivertothefederaldamatTroy.NewYorkmustactnowtoaddressthechallengeof
sealevelrise.
2.
The
likelihood
that
powerful
storms
will
hit
New
York
States
coastline
is
very
high,
as
is
the
associatedthreattohumanlifeandcoastalinfrastructure.Thisvulnerabilitywillincreaseinarea
andmagnitudeovertime.
3.Naturalshorelinefeaturessuchaswetlands,aquaticvegetation,dunesandbarrierbeaches
currentlyprovidelargescaleservicessuchasfloodprotection,stormbuffering,fisherieshabitat,
recreationalfacilitiesandwaterfiltrationatalmostnocost.Theseserviceswouldbeprohibitively
expensivetoreplicatewithhumanbuiltsystems.NewYorkislosingtidalmarshesatarapidpace
andwiththemthenaturalinfrastructurethatprotectstheshorefromfloods,waveattackand
erosion.
4.Sealevelrisewillcauseallshorelineecosystemstobecomemorefrequentlyinundated.Low
lyinglocationswillbecomepermanentlysubmerged.Habitatsandthespeciesassociatedwiththem
maymigratelandward;this,however,willbeimpededbythedensityofdevelopmentonmuchof
thestatesshorelineandthewidespreadhardeningofthatshoreline.
5.CurrentinvestmentandlanduseplanningpracticesbybothNewYorkStateandlocal
governmentsareencouragingdevelopmentinareasathighriskofcoastalfloodinganderosion.
6.Overthelongterm,cumulativeenvironmentalandeconomiccostsassociatedwithstructural
protectionmeasuressuchasseawalls,dikes,andbeachnourishmentareexpectedtobeseveral
timesmoreexpensiveandlesseffectivethannonstructuralmeasuressuchaselevationofatrisk
structuresandplannedrelocationawayfromthecoastalshoreline.
7.Aswaterlevelsrise,shoreprotectionstructuresalongthestatescoastlinewilllimitpublicaccess
tobeachesastheyeliminatethepubliclyaccessibleintertidalzone.
8.ExistingmapsofNewYorkStatescoastthatidentifycommunities,habitatsandinfrastructureat
i k f fl di d i i f d d il d h f l i
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RecommendationsAdoptofficialprojectionsofsealevelriseandensurecontinuedandcoordinatedadaptationefforts.
Requirestateagenciesresponsibleforthemanagementandregulationofresources,infrastructure,
andpopulationsatriskfromsealevelrisetofactorthecurrentandanticipatedimpactsintoall
relevant
aspects
of
decision
making.
Classifyareaswheresignificantriskofcoastalfloodingduetostormshasbeenidentifiedand
implementriskreductionmeasuresinthoseareas.
Identifyandclassifyareasoffutureimpactsfromoceancoastalfloodingfromprojectedsealevelrise
andstormstoreduceriskinthoseareas.
Reduce
vulnerability
in
coastal
areas
at
risk
from
sea
level
rise
and
storms.
Support
increased
reliance
onnonstructuralmeasuresandnaturalprotectivefeaturestoreduceimpactsfromcoastalhazards.
Developmapsandothertoolsrequiredtoassistlocaldecisionmakersinpreparingforand
respondingtosealevelrise.
AmendNewYorkStatelawsandchangeandadoptregulationsandagencyguidancedocumentsto
addresssealevelriseandpreventfurtherlossofnaturalsystemsthatreduceriskofcoastalflooding.
Providefinancialsupport,guidanceandtoolsforcommunitybasedvulnerabilityassessmentsand
ensureahighlevelofcommunityrepresentationandparticipationinofficialvulnerability
assessmentsandpoststormrecoveryandredevelopmentandadaptationplanningprocesses.
Undertakeacomprehensiveassessmentofthepublichealthrisksassociatedwithsealevelrise,
coastalhazardsandclimatechangeincludingcompromisedindoorairquality,drinkingwater
impacts,posttraumaticstressandothermentalhealthproblems,increasesindiseasevectors,
impaired
access
to
health
care
and
loss
of
reliable
access
to
food
and
medical
supplies.
Raisepublicawarenessoftheadverseimpactsofsealevelriseandclimatechangeandofthe
potentialadaptivestrategies.
Developmechanismstofundadaptationtosealevelriseandclimatechange.
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Ecosystems
Intact
natural
systems
are
essential
to
the
health
and
functioning
of
the
coasts
ecological
and
human
communities.Theyperformawidevarietyofeconomicallyvaluablefunctions14includingwaterquality
protection,watersupply,commercialandrecreationalfishproduction,floodmitigation,recreation,
carbonstorageandstormbuffering.They
provideimportanthabitatforplantsand
wildlife.Shorelinevistas,beachesandopen
spacesdefinecoastalcommunitycharacter
and
quality
of
life
for
residents
and
visitors.
Althoughecosystemchangeovertimeisa
naturalprocess,acceleratedsealevelriseand
relatedcoastalimpactscausedbyclimate
changewillleadtofundamentalchangesin
thenatureofcoastalhabitat.Typicalsalt
marshvegetationcouldbelostwhenmarshes
areinundated.Deeperwaterorlargerbays
couldleadtohigherwaveenergythatcould
causefurthererosionandmarshloss.
Withinundation,nearshorehabitatstendto
migratelandwardasshorelineecosystems
convertfromonehabitattypetoanotherand
thespecies
present
also
shift.
To
the
extent
thathumandevelopmentinhibitsthese
naturalshiftsinresponsetosealevelrise,we
risklosingmanyvaluablecoastalresources
andecologicalfunctionsaltogether.
AnumberofsaltmarshesonthesouthshoreofLongIslandand
alongtheLongIslandSoundhavebeenlostthroughconversionto
intertidalmudflatsorsubmergencebelowthewatersurface.
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Propertydamagecausedbysealevelriseandstormsurgesislikelytopromptgreaterpublicdemandfor
shorelinestabilizationandprotectivestructuressuchasbulkheads,berms,seawalls,groinsandjetties.
Suchmeasures,however,preventtheshorelineanditsassociatedspeciesfrommovinglandward.They
alsodisruptthesedimentsupply,hinderingtheformationandadaptationofmanyshorelinefeatures,
includingtheabilityofbeach,duneandbarrierislandsystemstomigratelandward.Inaddition,thesestructureswillimpairpublicaccessaswaterlevelsriseandwillhaveotherunintendedconsequences.
Forexample,theycanaltertidalandwaveenergy,causingdamagetowetlandsandparksandother
waterfrontamenities.Whiletheyoffershorttermprotection,traditionalshorelinestabilization
structuresmaynotbethebestchoicetoreducethevulnerabilityofpropertyandresourcestocoastal
hazards.
CoastalNaturalResourcesProvideSignificantHumanBenefits
AtwoyeareconomicstudycommissionedbytheNewJerseyDepartmentofEnvironmental
Protectionin
2004
established
values
for
some
ecosystem
services
provided
by
coastal
wetlands,beachesandestuariesinNewJersey.Ecosystemservicesarethebenefitspeopleobtain
fromecosystems,suchasfloodcontrol,waterqualityimprovement,carbonstorage,andstorm
protectionthatcommunitieswouldhavetoreplaceartificiallyifthenaturalsystemswerelost.
ThereportestimatedthatthewastetreatmentservicesprovidedbycoastalwetlandsinNew
Jerseywerevaluedatover$1billionayear.Itisimportanttonotethatthisstudyfocusedsolely
ontheeconomicvalueprovidedtohumansandprobablyunderestimatestheabsolutevalueof
theseunique
natural
resources.
Source:Costanza,R.,etal.2006.TheValueofNewJersey'sEcosystemServicesandNaturalCapital.Report
toNewJerseyDepartmentofEnvironmentalProtection,DivisionofScience,Research,andTechnology,
Trenton,NJ.http://www.nj.gov/dep/dsr/naturalcap
http://www.nj.gov/dep/dsr/naturalcaphttp://www.nj.gov/dep/dsr/naturalcaphttp://www.nj.gov/dep/dsr/naturalcap8/8/2019 New York State Sea Level Rise Tast Force Report
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TheTaskForceassessedsevenmajorecosystemtypesitdeemedmostthreatenedbysealevelrise.
Wetlandlossincoastalareasisanationwidephenomenon,15andNewYorkStateisnoexception.Tidal
wetlandacreageisdroppingalongthestatesmarinecoast,andwhatremainsisshiftingfromhigh
marsh(periodicallyinundated)tolowmarsh(inundateddailyathightide).16InNewYorkCitysJamaica
Bay,vegetatedtidalwetlandsareundergoingrapidconversiontomudflats,experiencinga40%loss
since1974.17
Coastalwetlandsandmarshesareanimportantformof
naturalinfrastructurealongtheshoreandareestimated
toprevent
approximately
$23
billion
in
coastal
storm
damageeachyearonthenortheastandGulfcoasts.
Tidalwetlandsprovidespawninggrounds,nurseries,
shelter,andfoodforfinfish,shellfish,birdsandother
wildlife.Theyalsoimprovesurfacewaterqualityby
filtering,storing,anddetoxifyingwastes.
Althoughtherearemanyfactorsinvolvedintidalwetland
loss,sealevelrisewillexacerbatethephenomenon.Loss
ofmarshislands,whichareparticularlyvulnerabletosea
levelrise,hasbeenidentifiedinareasfromPeconicBayto
thenorthshoreofLongIslandandfromthesouthshore
ofLongIslandtoJamaicaBay.
Besidesservingasimportantfishandwildlife
habitats,coastalwetlandsareanimportantformof
naturalinfrastructureandareestimatedtoprevent
approximately$23billionincoastalstormdamage
eachyearonthenortheastandGulfcoasts.
Physicaldisruption
and
increased
inundation
caused
by
storms
undermine
the
integrity
of
marsh
structureandprocesses.Recentstudiessuggestthatstormssurgessuperimposedonhighersealevels
willincreasethefrequencyandextentoffloodingincoastalregionsandestuaries,thusincreasingthe
riskofdamagetovulnerablewetlands.18,
15Stedman,
S.
and
Dahl,
T.E.
2008.
Status
and
trends
of
wetlands
in
the
coastal
watersheds
of
the
Eastern
United
States1998to2004.NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration,NationalMarineFisheriesServiceandU.S.
DepartmentoftheInterior,FishandWildlifeService.
16DECdata.
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Atthelowerendofprojectedsealevelriserates,the
slowdepositionofwaterbornesedimentwillenable
sometidal
wetlands
to
migrate
into
adjacent
upland
areas,mitigatingtheirloss.Suchmigrationwillnotbe
possibleinareaswhereshorelineprotectivestructures,
development,ornaturalimpediments(openwateror
steepslopes)preventit,asisthecasealongmuchof
NewYorkStatesheavilydevelopedcoastline.Ifthe
higherratesofprojectedsealevelriseoccur,migration
willnot
be
possible
in
most
areas.
New
York
States
tidal
wetlands,especiallymarshislands,willbelostto
inundation.19
Wheresediment
supplies
are
limited,
landward
migrationoflowenergysystemssuchasbeachdunes
maybelimited,changingtheshoreline'sconfiguration.
Credit:JayTanski
Low- toModerate-EnergyShorelines
Low tomoderateenergyshorelinesaresmall,nonvegetatedbeachesandtidalflatsalongthemargins
ofprotectedareassuchasestuariesandbarrierislandlagoons.Theirnarrow,steepupperbeachesand
relativelyflat
low
tide
areas20
contain
amosaic
of
microenvironments.21
This
intertidal
habitat
supports
residentspeciessuchashorseshoecrabs,killifish,crabsandshorebirds.Alongwithdamagetothese
populations,lossofthistypeofshorelinemayleadtochanges
whichaffecthumanusesoftheseareas,includingaccesstothe
uplandarea,fishingandboatingaccess,andresidentialuse.
Itisdifficulttopredicthowlow tomoderateenergyshorelines
will
respond
to
sea
level
rise.
At
the
lower
projections
of
sea
level
rise,theymightmigrateatsiteswherethereisadequate
sediment,arelativelylowslope,andnoobstructions.Higher
ratesofrelativesealevelriseorlackofadequatesedimentsupply
woulddrivetheshorelineinlandfasterandcouldhaveother
effectsthatcannotyetbeeasilyassessed.Sandybeachesmay
increaseasmarshesarelost.
Beacherosioncouldleadtolossof
recreationalareas.
19Hartig,E.K.,etal.2002.AnthropogenicandclimatechangeimpactsonsaltmarshesofJamaicaBay,NewYork
City Wetlands 22: 7189 and Fallon and Mushacke 1996 (unpublished) Tidal Wetlands Trends in Shinnecock Bay
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Significantchangesinwaterdepthsorembaymentsizecouldaccelerateerosion.Wheresediment
suppliesarelimited,landwardmigrationofbeachdunesystemsmaybelimited.
SubmergedAquaticVegetation
Submergedaquaticvegetation(SAV)isagroupoffloweringplantsthathaveadaptedtolivingfully
submergedinlagoons,bays,estuariesandcoastalmarinewaters.Thistypeofvegetationhasaprofound
influenceoncoastalandestuarineenvironments.Itregulateswaterflow,stabilizessediments,servesas
afoodsourceformarinelife,andreplenishesdissolvedoxygeninthesurroundingwaters.Itprovides
criticalhabitatandnurserygroundsforwadingbirdsandwaterfowlandforcommercially,
recreationally,and
ecologically
important
fish
and
shellfish.
SAVbedsarecurrentlythreatenedbyahostoffactors.22In1930,therewereanestimated200,000
acresofthesebedsinNewYorkState.Thisareahas
decreasedbyalmost90percentovertimeto21,803acres.
Accordingtothe2009NewYorkStateSeagrassTaskForce
Report,mostofthislossisassociatedwithwaterpollution,
fishing
and
boating.
23
But
increasingly,
sea
level
rise
and
climatedriventemperaturechangearebecomingimportant
stressors.Thedeeperwaterscausedbyrisingsealevels
couldlimitlightpenetration.Shorelineprotectivestructures
willpreventthelandwardmigrationofexistingbeds.Assea
levelsrise,contaminantsleakingfrominundatedseptic
systemsorbrownfieldsitescouldcausefurtherdegradation,
resulting
in
additional
damage
to
SAV
beds
and
limiting
the
availablenurseryhabitatforeconomicallyimportantfishand
shellfish.
Hardenedshorelines,likelytoincreaseassea
levelrises,
will
prevent
the
landward
migrationofexistingseagrassbedsand
decreasetheavailabilityofsuitablenursery
habitatfornearlyeveryimportantfinfishand
shellfishinNewYork.Credit:ChrisPickerell
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BarrierIslands
Barrierislandsarelong,relativelynarrowislandsandspitsrunningparalleltothecoast,enclosingbays
andlagoons.24
Composed
primarily
of
sand,
barrier
islands
are
constantly
reshaped
by
wind,
waves,
and
currents,especiallyduringstorms.Theyprotectnaturalandhumancommunitiesfromoceanstorms.
Commercialandsportcraftseekshelterbehindtheseislandsforsafepassagebetweenports.Sheltered
bybarrierislands,saltmarshesprovidehabitatcriticaltothespawningandearlylifestagesofmanyfish
species,supportingthemultimilliondollarcommercialandsportfishingindustriesalongourcoasts.
Theseislandssupportuniqueecologicalcommunities,andmanyofthebaysandestuariesenclosedby
barrierislandsonthenorthandsouthshoresofLongIslandaredesignatedasSignificantCoastalFish
andWildlife
Habitat
Areas
by
the
New
York
State
Department
of
State.
Theprocessescontrollingbarrierislandsarenot
completelyunderstood,andtherearesignificantlocal
variations.Forexample,whileallarehighlydynamicand
constantlychanging,somehavenotmigratedsignificantly
duringthelast750to1,300years.Therelationship
betweenthe
rate
of
sea
level
rise
and
how
the
barrier
islandswillrespondisnotasimpleone.Overthenext30
to50years,atprojectedlowtomoderateratesofsea
levelrise,thegreatestimpacttobarrierislandswilllikely
befromstormsanddisruptedsedimenttransportfrom
humanactivity.Overtime,barriersmaynotbeableto
maintainthemselvesifsealevelriseoutpacestheabilityof
thesystem
to
supply
sediment.
At
the
highest
rates
of
sea
levelrise,overwash(theprocessbywhichstormsurges
flowacrossbarrierislands,depositingsedimentandraising
theirelevation)andbreachingofnewinletswould
increasesignificantly,potentiallychangingthephysicaland
environmentalcharacteristicsofthebays.Thehabitat
affectedbychangestobarrierislandsincludeshorseshoe
crabegg
laying
sites;
shore
bird
foraging,
nesting
and
resting
sites;
and
fish
spawning
and
nursery
sites.
Becausethenaturalmechanismsthatcreatebarrierislandsdependontheislandsabilitytochangein
responsetostormsandsealevelrise,effortstostabilizecoastalbarrierislandsarecontrarytothevery
processesthatsustainthem.
Increasederosionofbarrierislandscouldresultin
lossofimportantnesting,foragingandspawing
sites.Credit:JayTanski
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CoastalBluffs
Bluffsarerelictfeaturesoftheshoreline,meaningtheywereformed
byprocesses
that
no
longer
take
place.
As
aresult,
coastal
bluffs
can
remainstableortheycanerode,movinglandwardastheydo,but
theywillnotincrease.Blufferosionsuppliesthematerialsthatform
othershorelinefeatures:clay,finesilt,sand,gravelandboulders.
Risingsealevelscombinedwithfrequent,intensestormsarelikelyto
increasesevereblufferosion.Inareaswherebluffcompositionis
chieflyfine
grained
silt
and
clay
unsuitable
for
beach
building,
sea
levelrisemayincreasetheamountofthismaterialdepositedin
offshorewaters,25whereitcouldsmothercoloniesofbluemussel,ribbedmusselandAmericanoyster.
Closertoshore,largesedimentdepositscandamagefishspawning,feedingandnurseryareas.
Sealevel
rise
may
increase
bluff
erosion.Credit:JayTanski
Wherebluffsarecomposedprimarilyofsandandothercoarsematerial,increasedratesoferosionmay
changethepresentequilibriumbetweensedimentsupplyandotherprocessesthatgovernthe
formation
and
movement
of
shoreline
features.
Inadditiontotheimpactsoferodedmaterialsonaquaticandcoastalhabitat,increasedblufferosion
presentsathreattohomesbuiltonornearbluffsandlossofhabitatforspeciessuchasredfoxand
bankswallows.Increasedblufferosionmayleadtoanincreaseddemandforshorestabilization.
Stabilizationofbluffscomposedprimarilyofsandsandcobbles,however,maycutoffthesupplyof
materialtobeaches,causingthemtoshrinkorevendisappearentirelyovertime.26
25 Tanski J J 1981 Episodic bluff erosion on the north shore of Long Island NY Masters Thesis Marine Sciences
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MarineRockyIntertidalAreas
Rockyintertidalareasaredominatedbybedrock,
stones,or
boulders,
with
little
vegetation.
They
are
generallyhighenergyhabitats,exposedtocontinuous
erosionbywinddrivenwavesorstrongcurrents,and
canbeeithernaturalformationsorhumanmade
structuressuchasstonejettiesandrockrevetments.
Thesezoneshavehighbiodiversityandhigh
productivity,providing
habitat,
nursery
grounds
and
foodformarineandterrestrialorganisms.Becauseof
theirexposedpositionandthefactthattheirresident
speciesaredependentonatidalcycleofalternating
wetanddryperiods,theseareasareparticularly
vulnerabletosealevelriseandotherphenomenarelatedtoclimatechange.Asthedurationoftidal
inundationincreases,specieswillmigratelandward.Inareasthatbecomecompletelyinundatedor
wherelandward
migration
is
obstructed,
intertidal
species
will
be
lost.
Naturalrubblefieldscanexpandonlyiftheupland
glacialsoilswithinwhichtheyareburiedareallowed
toerodewithadvancingsealevel.Credit:J.
Meyerowitz, 2009
Rockyintertidalhabitatcanbecreatedorpreservedthroughbothnatural(depositsofstoneerodedin
adjacentorupdriftareas)andartificialmeans(buildingjettiesandrockrevetments).Jettiesandrock
revetmentsareoftenconstructedonexistingnativehabitatfrequentlysandybeachesorbluffsto
protectshorelineproperty;thisdestroysthevalueassociatedwiththeoriginalhabitat.
FreshwaterResources
Assealevelrises,sowillthegroundwaterlevel,andthiswillhaveseveraldifferenteffectsonfreshwater
ecosystems.First,ahigherwatertablewillmeanathinnerunsaturatedlayerbetweenthelandsurface
andthewatertableandlesstimeduringwhichsoilsinlowlyingareasexperiencedryconditions.This
willsubstantiallyalterthehabitatintheseareas,increasingwetlandormoisturetolerantspecies,
includingdiseasevectorsandpests,attheexpenseofuplandspeciesthatrequiredrierconditions.
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Freshwaterisunderlainbydensersaltwaterintheshallow(watertable)aquifersystemofLongIsland.1.Conceptualized
positionof
higher
sea
level.
2.
Corresponding
position
of
higher
water
table.
3.
Resulting
increase
in
hydraulic
gradient
and
flowtostreams.4.Associateddecreaseinthedepthtofreshwatersaltwaterinterface.Asthisinterfacemoveshigher
drinkingwatersuppliesmaybeaffected.Credit:BenGutierrez,USGS
Second,assealevelrises,thepointatwhichfreshwaterandsaltwatermeetwillshiftfurtherupstream
inriversandstreams,andfurtherinlandandupwardincoastalaquifers.Vegetationwilllikewiseshift
fromfreshwatertobrackishorsalttolerantspecies.
Anadromousfish(marinefishthatspawninfreshwater)willbeaffected,aswillotherfreshwaterfish
andfauna
that
currently
use
these
areas
for
nesting,
spawning
and
foraging.
Freshwater
habitat
could
migrateinland,thoughdams,bridges,shorelinedevelopmentandotherobstructionswillimpedesuch
movement.
Ecosystems:ActionsNeededtoAdapttoSeaLevelRise
TomaintainandexpandtheecosystemservicesprovidedbyNewYorkscoastalsystems,thestate
shouldpursuethefollowinggoals:
Minimizefuturehabitatloss
Protectfreshdrinkingwaterresources
P id t l t l ith d t t d t t l l iP id t l t l ith d t t d t t l l i
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ItisessentialtostartwithacurrentandaccurateaccountingofshorelineconditionsthroughoutNew
YorkState(Recommendation6)thatshowshowshorelinesmaychangewithrisingsealevels.Suchan
inventory
should
include
the
location
of
areas
of
potential
inundation
as
well
as
locations
of
structural
protectionmeasuresthatcouldhinderthemigrationofnaturalsystemsrespondingtosealevelrise.
Thecollectedinformationmustserveasthebasisforcoastalnaturalresourcemanagementstrategies
thatarecoordinatedonfederal,stateandlocallevels.Suchstrategiesshouldemphasizeecosystem
basedmanagementandensureadequatefundingtopromoteeffectiveadaptation(Recommendations
2,11,12,13).
Asthe
first
line
of
defense
against
extremestorms,featuressuchas
dunes,barrierislandsandtidal
wetlandstakethebruntofwavesand
stormsurge,reducingtheimpacton
coastalcommunitiesand
infrastructure.Topreservecoastal
ecosystemfunctions,
natural
features
mustbeallowedtorespondnaturally
ormigrateinlandassealevelrises.
Currentfundingmechanismsand
technicalexpertisehaveencourageda
structuralapproachtoshore
protection;
this
approach
has
several
drawbacks.Structuralmeasuressuchasseawalls,dikes,andbeachnourishmentprojectsareexpensive
tobuildandmaintainandtheyofteninterruptsedimenttransportprocesses,resultinbiological
impacts,andchangeerosionpatterns.Theycreatebarriersthatpreventnaturalsystemssuchastidal
wetlandsfrommigratinginlandtoadapttosealevelrise.Additionally,thereisnoassurancethatthey
willbeadequateprotectionfromlongtermsealevelrise.
NewYorkStateneedsaregulatoryframeworkthatconsiderssealevel
riseinproposalsfordevelopmentinareaswherethemigrationof
dunesandothernaturalfeaturesmayberestricted.
Conversely,nonstructuralsolutions,suchaselevationandstrategicrelocation,canreduceoreliminate
thelongtermthreatoffloodingatamuchlowerlongtermcostandwithfewerimpactstonatural
systems.Inlightofthesefactors,federalandstateagenciesarebeginningtoincorporatenonstructural
solutionsintotheirlongtermcoastalprotectionplanningandmanagement.
Whereshorelinestabilizationisabsolutelynecessarytoprotectinvestmentinessentialpublic
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NewYorkStateneedsaregulatoryframeworkthatconsiderssealevelriseinproposalsfordevelopment
andinfrastructureinhighriskcoastalareaswherethemigrationofdunesandothernaturalfeatures
may
be
restricted
(Recommendations
4,
5,
7).
Such
regulations
should
do
the
following:
Restrictstructuralshorelineprotectivemeasuresanddevelopmentinpriorityareasforwetland,dune,andbeachmigration
Prioritizeandincentivizetheuseofnonstructuralshorelineprotectionmeasurestoreducerisk Providelargerbuffersorsetbacksbetweennaturalprotectivefeaturesandnewdevelopment Requirelocalandregionalplanningeffortstobegintoestablishareasformigrationofnatural
protectivefeatures
Thereisalsoaneedforadditionalstudies,includingestablishmentoflongtermmonitoringsystems,
thatwillimproveourvulnerabilityanalysesfornaturalareasatgreatestriskofflooding
(Recommendation12).Theseincludethefollowing:
Monitorandevaluatethecauseof tidalwetlandlossandchangesatalandscapescale EvaluatepotentialshiftsintheupstreamextentoftheHudsonRiversaltfrontandinundationof
undergrounddrinkingwatersuppliesinLongIsland
Mapprojectedrangeshiftsofkeycoastalspecies Betterunderstandhowsealevelrise,storms,erosion,andengineeredshorelinemodifications
affectshoreline
changes,
water
quality,
wetlands,
and
aquatic
habitat
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PublicWorksandInfrastructure
PublicandprivateinfrastructuredominateslargesectionsofNewYorkscoastline.Theseincludepower
plants,sewageanddrinkingwatertreatmentplantsandpumpstations,landfills,wastetransferstations,
majorroadandrailtransportationarteriesandahostofindustrialfacilities.Underneaththestreetsof
NewYorkCity,elaboratesystemsofpublicutilitiesthatenablethecitytofunctionarevulnerableto
increasedflooding.Denselypopulatedcommunitiesandallofthe
housing,businesses,recreationalresourcesandinstitutionsthatserve
themandhelpshapetheircharacterlineourmarinecoastsaswell.
Nearlyall
of
this
infrastructure
was
constructed
before
sea
level
rise
wasrecognizedasasignificantproblem.Today,sealevelriseis
recognizedasaphenomenonwithpotentiallydramaticimpactson
existingandnewinfrastructure.Decisionsregardingcoastal
infrastructurearecomplexinprocess(Table2).Decisionmakersin
bothpublicandprivatesectorsneedtoensurethatrelevantplanning
decisionsreflectthisrealitysothatNewYorkStateseconomyand
communitiesare
poised
to
thrive
well
into
the
future.
Ifwedonotbeginproactiveadaptationplanning,sealevelriseand
relatedcoastalhazardswillsignificantlyexacerbatecurrentflooding
problemsthatmuchofNewYorkStatescoastalinfrastructurealready
facesandcreatenewproblemsaswell.Theimpactsofinundationand
floodingarecomplex.Itisnotonlywaterthatcausesdamage.Sea
watercontains
salt,
which
corrodes
equipment
and
undermines
its
strength.
Floodwaters
can
release
storedchemicalsandpetroleum,pickupcontaminatedsoilandtransportleadbasedpaint.Floodwaters
canoverwhelmcombinedstormandwastewatersewersystemsandleadtoreleaseofuntreated
sewage.Manyelementsofexistinginfrastructurewerenotdesignedtowithstandextendedexposureto
moisture.Muchinfrastructurewillbesusceptibletoongoingstructuralandmoldproblems,suchas
thosethatbecamelongtermhindrancestorecoveryafterHurricaneKatrina.
Sealevelrisewillthreatencritical
powergenerationanddistribution
facilities.
Theseinfrastructuresectorsinfluenceandaredependentupononeanother.Disruptioninoneoften
impedesthefunctionof,orexacerbatesthedamageto,others.Forexample,solidwasteremoval
systemsdependheavilyontransportationnetworks,andallsectorsrelyontransportationforaccessto
sitesthatneedrepairafterflooding.
Past experience has further illuminated the consequences of such interdependence A Federal
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Similarly,portableradiochargingunitsandhandheldsatelliteunitsbecameunusablewhentherewasno
powertochargetheirrechargeablebatteries.27
Ifnot
addressed,
these
and
other
complex
interactions
will
hinder
both
recovery
from
major
weather
eventsassociatedwithsealevelriseandadaptationtoitschroniceffects.
TheTaskForceexaminedseveralinfrastructuresectorsandthewaysinwhichtheymaybe
compromisedbysealevelriseandrelatedcoastalhazards.
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TABLE2: ExamplesofPartiesResponsibleforCoastalInfrastructureDecisions
Examplesof
Infrastructure
Planning &
Development
Potentialfinancing&
Incentives
ApprovalorPermitsOftenRequired
Telecommunications
cables
PrivateutilityUsuallyprivatefundingonly
PublicServiceCommission
Stateorlocaltransportationdept
FederalCommunicationsCommission
Municipalities
PowerplantsPrivateutility
StateEnergyPlan
NYSERDA(research
assistance)
UsuallyprivatefundingonlyNYSDEC
NYSDOS(CoastalZoneMgt)
PublicServiceCommission
U.S.
EPA
FederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission
Localplanningcommission
Residential
development
Privatedeveloperor
landowner
Localwaterfrontorzoning
plan
EmpireStateDevelopmentCorp.
Localeconomicdevelopment
corp.
Federalfloodinsurance
DECandDOSviaBrownfield
CleanupProgram
EnvironmentalFacilities
Corporation
NYSDEC
NYSDOS(CoastalZoneMgt)
ArmyCorpsofEngineers
Localplanningcommissions
Countydepartmentsofhealth
Commercial
development
Privatedeveloperor
landowner
Localwaterfrontorzoning
plan
EmpireStateDevelopmentCorp.
Localeconomicdevelopment
corp.
DECandDOSviaBrownfield
CleanupProgram
NYSDEC
NYSDOS(CoastalZoneMgt)
ArmyCorpsofEngineers
Localplanningcommission
Wastetransfer
stations
Municipalityorprivate
company
Localsolidwastemgtplan
Localwaterfrontorzoning
plan
EnvironmentalFacilities
Corporation
NYSDEC
NYSDOS(CoastalZoneMgt)
ArmyCorpsofEngineers
Localsanitationdept
Localplanning
commission
Shorelineprotection
structures
Privatesector
Municipalgovernments
ArmyCorpsofEngineers
Privatefunding
Municipalgovernments
EmpireStateDevelopmentCorp.
Localeconomicdevelopment
corporations
NYSDEC
NYSDOS(CoastalZoneMgt)
OfficeofGeneralServices(stateland)
ArmyCorpsofEngineers
U.S.Dept.ofInterior(inclFish&Wildlife
Service)
Localplanningcommission
StateroadsNYSDOT Governor
FederalDept.ofTransportation
(matchingfunds)
NYSDEC
NYSDOS(CoastalZoneMgt)
ArmyCorpsofEngineers
U.S.EPA
USCoastGuard(bridges)
U.S.Dept.oftheInterior
Wastewatersewer
lines
Municipality
Combinedseweroverflow
EnvironmentalFacilities
Corporation
NYSDEC
Localplanning&zoningcommissions
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Communications
Communicationnetworksarevitaltoeveryaspectofdailylife,butespeciallytopolice,fireandother
emergencyservices.
Many
of
todays
communications
networks
(wireline,
wireless,
internet,
voice
over
internetprotocolandcable)areinterconnectedandthusvulnerabletodisruption.Floodinduced
outagestoonecentralizedfacilityorprimarycablepathcanresultintotallossofserviceoveranentire
area.Cascadeeffectoutagescanaffectfacilitiesbeyondtheimmediatelydamagedarea.Frequent
inundationofcommunicationdeliverysystemswillacceleratedeteriorationofcablesheathing,
telephonepoles,andothercomponents,makingoutagesmorelikelyandlongerlasting.Outageswill
increaseastheareasaffectedbystormsurgesexpandtoplaceswhereinfrastructurewasnotdesigned
towithstandsuchevents.
Energy
Theriskstoenergyfacilitiesparallelthosefacingcommunicationinfrastructure.Floodingofpower
plantscanresultintotallossofserviceforagivenarea.Frequentinundationofelectricandgas
transmissionanddistributionsystemscanacceleratetheirdeterioration,causingmorefrequentand
longer
lasting
outages
with
extended
repair
times.
Flooding
and
a
higher
water
table
can
impede
access
forrepairandmaintenanceofundergroundgasandelectriclinesandequipment.Above andbelow
groundstoragetankscontainingbulkliquidsalongthe
coastcouldbedamagedinstormsorcorrodedbysaltwater
inundation.Leakagecouldcontaminateecosystemsand
drinkingwaterandbecostlytocleanup.
ShorelineProtectiveStructures
Whenwaterovertopsbulkheads,seawallsand
revetmentsstructuresintendedtoprotecttheshoreline
againstseawateranderosionbuildingscanbedamaged
orlost,especiallyifthepresenceofprotectivestructures
hasencourageddevelopmentinhighriskareas.Assea
levelcontinuestorise,effortstopreventovertoppingmay
ultimatelybe
futile.
Engineeredshorelineprotectionstructureshave
thepotentialtoexacerbateerosion.
HurricaneKatrinapromptedtheNationalAcademyofEngineeringandNationalResearchCouncilto
declarethat:becauseofthepossibilityoflevee/floodwallovertoppingormore
importantly...failuretherisksofinundationandfloodingnevercanbefullyeliminatedbyprotective
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Shorelineprotectivestructureshavelimitedlifespans,lastingonlyafewdecades,andattemptsto
maintaintheminthefaceofsealevelrisewillbecostly.29Forexample,thecostsofbeachnourishment
alonearesubstantial.
Accordingtoa2000publication fromtheNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration,Coastal
geologistsputthe10yearcostofmaintainingnourishedbeachesalongthedevelopedshorelinesof
NewJersey,NorthCarolina,SouthCarolina,andFlorida,using1996costsandaveragefrequencyof
renourishment,at$5.9millionpermile.30,31
Astheseprotectivemeasuresareeventuallyunderminedordestroyed,thepublicinvestmentwillbe
lost.However,
there
will
be
some
areas
where
shoreline
protective
structures
may
be
necessary,
such
as
NewYorkCity.Insuchcases,itmaybeappropriatetointegratesoftengineeringtechniquesand
elevationofcriticalfacilitiesintothedesignofshorelineprotectionprojects.
SolidWaste
Floodingcausesstructuraldamagetosolidwastefacilitiesandthetransportationinfrastructurethat
allowsmovementofwasteinandoutofthem.Poststormrepairworkonsolidwastefacilitiesand
transportationinfrastructure,moreover,will
conflictwiththeincreaseddemandfordebris
removalthatoccursafterastorm,potentially
overwhelmingthesystem.Wastefacilities
inundatedbywaterhavesignificantpotentialto
contaminatefloodwaterswithpetroleumand
othernoxioussubstances,causingodorsand
pathwaysfordiseaseand affectingnearby
ecosystems,residentsandbusinesses.
Sealevelrisethreatensmarinetransferstationsandother
coastalwastemanagementfacilities.Suchfacilitiesarealso
potentialsourcesofcontaminationiftheyareflooded
duringstorms.
29Social justice in coastal erosion management: The temporal and spatial dimensions J A G Cooper J McKenna
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Transportation
Reliable,operationaltransportationnetworksareessentialformaintainingnormalbusinessand
residentiallife.
The
need
for
these
systems
is
never
more
critical
than
during
emergency
response
and
evacuation.Lossofroad,air,shipandrailtransportationfromfloodinghaswidespreadrepercussions,
compoundedbyprolongedrepairtimesduetolackofservice.Sectionsofcommuterandfreight
railwaysalongtheHudsonareatspecialriskduetotheirlocationjustfeetfromtheriver,asarecoastal
airports.
RegularorprofoundfloodingcouldthreatenrailmovementthroughouttheHudsonValley,including
plansfor
high
speed
rail
development.
Foundations
for
rail
lines
could
be
undermined
by
erosion,
and
signalingsystemsdamagedbysaltwaterinfiltrationcouldleadto
trainaccidents.Risingwatertableswillincreasetheriskofflooding
andtheneedtopumpstandingwaterfromundergroundorlow
lyingfacilitiessuchastheNewYorkCitysubwaysystem.Theycould
alsoweakenthesubstrateorsubgradeforothertransportation
infrastructure.Publicroadwayscanbecomepermanently
obstructedor
rendered
impassable,
requiring
relocation
of
critical
thoroughfares.
OfthemajorairportsintheNewYorkmetropolitanarea,both
LaGuardiaandJFKareatriskoffloodingfrompowerfulcoastal
stormsandsealevelrise.LaGuardiaisatgreatestrisk.Evenwithout
sealevelrise,atenfootstormsurge,similartothatofHurricane
Donna
in
1960,
would
begin
to
overtop
its
protective
barriers.
Waterlevelsabove13feetwouldcausesignificantfloodingattheairport.However,suchfloodingisnot
expectedtoaffecttheairportsstructuresandequipmentuniformly;amoredetailedstudyisneededto
evaluatewhichareaswouldbemostvulnerable.
Railroads,highwaysandsubwaysareall
atriskfromcoastalfloodingandsalt
waterdamage.
Sealevelrisewillalsoaffectpubliccommerce.The
goodsmovementindustry,especiallyincoastalstates,
reliesheavilyonwaterbornetransit.Sealevelrisemay
affectports,navigablewaterways,andtransportation
infrastructureconnections.
DrinkingWaterSupplies
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ItalsothreatenstheHudsonRiver,whichisaprimarywatersupplysourceformanycommunitiesanda
potentialemergencywatersupplysourceforNewYorkCity,havingbeenusedassuchduringthree
severewatershortageswithinthelast45years.Saltwaterintrusioncouldaffectfreshwaterintakesat
theChelseaPumpingStation,CastlePointMedicalCenter,Poughkeepsie,PortEwen,Highland/Townof
Lloyd,DutchessCountyWaterAuthority,andRhinebeck.Inaddition,floodingandothersealevelrise
impactsposemanyofthesameriskstodrinkingwatertreatmentfacilitiesasthosethatthreatenother
infrastructuretypes:corrosion,erosionanddeterioration.
Watertreatmentplantsinthecoastalzoneareatriskfromfloodingandtheassociatedcorrosioncaused
bysaltwaterinfiltration.Inadditiontothetreatmentfacilitiesthemselves,thesubstratefordistribution
pipescould
be
damaged
by
erosion
and
arising
groundwater
table.
Wells
are
also
at
risk
from
salt
water
corrosionandrisinggroundwaterconditions.Costsofnecessaryrepairs,placementsandupdatesto
NewYorkState'swaterinfrastructureoverthenext20yearshavebeenestimatedat$38.7billion,
althoughestimatesofthecostsofmodificationstorespondtoclimatechangespecificallyhavenotbeen
developed.Thesecostswill,however,besignificant.32
WastewaterManagementSystems
Wastewatertreatmentplantsinthecoastalzoneareatriskfromfloodingandtheassociatedcorrosion
causedbysaltwaterinfiltration.Inadditiontothetreatmentfacilitiesthemselves,thesubstratefor
sewerpipescouldbedamagedbyerosionandarisinggroundwatertable.Septicsystemsarealsoatrisk
fromsaltwatercorrosionandrisinggroundwaterconditions.
Wastewatertreatmentplantsinthecoastalzoneareatriskfromfloodingandtheassociatedcorrosion
causedbysaltwaterinfiltration.Inadditiontothetreatmentfacilitiesthemselves,thesubstratefor
sewerpipescouldbedamagedbyerosionandarisinggroundwatertable.Septicsystemsarealsoatrisk
fromsaltwatercorrosionandrisinggroundwaterconditions.Costsofnecessaryrepairs,placementsand
updatestoNewYorkState'smunicipalwastewaterinfrastructureoverthenext20yearshavebeen
estimatedat$36.2billion,althoughestimatesofthecostsofmodificationstorespondspecificallyto
climatechangehavenotbeendeveloped.Thesecostswill,however,besignificant.33
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PublicWorksandInfrastructure:ActionsNeededtoAdapttoSeaLevelRise
ThefirststepinassessingthevulnerabilityofNewYorksinfrastructureistoidentifyandmapareasat
greatestrisk.
The
next
step
is
begin
to
reduce
risk
in
those
areas
(Recommendations
3,
4,
5).
Alongside
thateffort,aninventoryofthetypesandvalueofinfrastructure,criticalfacilities(hospitals,policeand
firedepartments,schools,emergencyservices,key
transportationroutes),andprivateandcommercial
propertyinhighriskareasisrequired
(Recommendation6).
Policychanges
needed
to
reduce
vulnerability
includelimitationsonthesitingofnewdevelopment
orinfrastructure(includingtransportationcorridors)
inhighriskareas(Recommendations2,5,7).Also
neededarechangestopermitrequirementsfor
setbacksanddesignelevationsandmodificationsto
buildingcodesforstructuralelementsandcorrosion
resistantequipment.
Constructionofshorelineprotectionstructurescanencourage
developmentinhighriskareas.
Longtermplansformaintenance,retrofitsandupgrades
shouldincorporateopportunitiesforadaptingexisting
infrastructuretoprojectedchangesinfloodriskthrough
elevation,relocation,increasedwaterpumpingcapacity,
orothermeasures.Emergencymanagementplanning
mustincorporate
increased
demand
for
emergency
servicesandconsidersealevelriseimpactson
evacuationroutes.Useofstateresourcesforrepairor
constructionofshorelineprotectivemeasureswhether
naturalorengineered,temporaryorlongtermshould
beevaluatedtoensurethattheyarethemostcost
effective,longterm,sitespecificapproachesfeasible.
Plansfor
back
up
measures
for
critical
systems
such
as
energyanddrinkingwatershouldincludeimpactsofsea
levelrise.Determinationsofprioritycleanupof
hazardouswastesitesandbrownfieldsshouldconsider
the likelihood of increased flood risk. Some areas will
Nonstructural
solutions,suchas
elevationand
relocation
ofstructures,mustplay
amajorroleina
statewideresponse
especiallyinless
urbanized
areas
where
theymaybeless
expensiveandmore
effectiveatreducing
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Nonstructuralsolutions,suchaselevationandrelocationofstructures,mustplayamajorroleina
statewideresponseespeciallyinlessurbanizedareaswheretheymaybelessexpensiveandmore
effectiveatreducinglongtermvulnerability(Recommendation5).Suchstrategiesincludeconserving
naturalsystemssuchasbarrierislands,tidalwetlandsanddunesystemsthatcurrentlyprovideflood
protectionandcommunitybenefitsatnocost.Lowimpactdevelopmentandgreeninfrastructurecan
alsohelpmitigatetheeffectsofsealevelrise,includingflooding.Lowimpactdevelopmentalso
emphasizesconservationanduseofonsitenaturalfeaturestoprotectwaterquality.Green
infrastructurereferstotheuseofnaturalorengineeredsystemsthatmimicnaturalprocesses.It
includesraingardens,rooftopcatchmentsystemsandgreenroofs,technologiesandpracticesthatallow
treatedwastewaterandstormwatertoinfiltratebackintogroundwatersystemsratherthanpipingit
intothenearestwaterbody,whereitmayexacerbatecoastalflooding.
Duetotheirescalatingcapitalandmaintenancecostsandtheincentivestheycreatefornew
developmentinhighriskareasstructuralprotectionmeasuresandfundingforthemshouldbe
significantlyreducedovertime.Inareaswherestructuralprotectioniswarranted,suchassomeareasof
NewYorkCity,thestateshoulddevelopguidancetoenhancetheecosystemvalueofstructural
protectionmeasures(Recommendation8). Atthesametime,thestatemustcoordinatewithfederal
agencieslike
the
Federal
Emergency
Management
Agency
(FEMA)
and
the
U.S.
Army
Corps
of
Engineers
(USACE)toreduceincentivesfornewdevelopmentandredevelopmentinhighriskareas
(Recommendation5,14).
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Communities
Withoutsoundplanningforadaptation,sealevelriseandassociatedcoastalhazardswillwreakdamage
onboth
individual
and
community
scales.
Because
of
all
the
amenities
that
life
near
the
shore
offers,
peoplehavelongbeendrawntosettleintheareasmostvulnerabletostormdamage.Thenumberof
peopleatriskfromaCategory3hurricanealongNewYorkStatescoast,forexample,hasbeen
estimatedatnearly2millionand,foraCategory4hurricane,morethan3million.34Residential
structuresinthe100yearfloodplainofNewYorkCityandNassau,SuffolkandWestchestercounties
haveatotalestimatedvalueofover$125billion.Whilethisfigureincludesriverineaswellascoastal
floodplains,itreflectsthescaleoffloodexposureintheregion.35
Whilecoastaldevelopmenthasburgeonedthemanyfederal,state,andlocaldecisionsgoverningsiting,
design,constructionandfinancinghavenotyetincorporatedmeasuresnecessarytoaddressthelong
termeffectsofsealevelriseandrelatedcoastalhazards.Forexample,FloodInsuranceRateMaps
(FIRMS)issuedbyFEMAaspartoftheNationalFloodInsuranceProgram(NFIP)establishareasat
currentriskfrom100yearand500yearfloodsanddictateratesoffloodinsuranceforstructureswithin
thoseareas.However,FEMAfloodmapsincoastalcountiesinNewYorkState,withtheexceptionof
Nassauand
Suffolk
counties,
use
outdated
flood
studies
from
the
1980s.
Although
FIRMS
are
designed
solelytoserveasinsuranceratemaps,theyareoftenusedbystateandlocalplannerstoapproveor
disapprovestructures,decisionsthathaveinherentlongtermimpacts.BecausemanyFIRMSare
outdatedanddonotincludeareaswhereriskoffloodingwillincreaseduetosealevelrise,thispractice
dramaticallyunderestimatestheactuallongtermcumulativeimpactsofindividualdevelopment
decisionsinhighriskareas.
Thecurrent
structure
of
many
federal
and
state
funded
actions
and
programs
protect
or
subsidize
high
riskcoastaldevelopmentbyshiftingthecostoffloodprotectionandstormrecoveryfromproperty
ownersandlocalgovernmentstostateandfederaltaxpayers.Examplesofthesesubsidiesinclude
fundingforstructuralshorelineprotection(whichincludesartificialfillor'beachnourishment'),
insurancecoveragethroughtheNationalFloodInsuranceProgram,andfederalandstatepostdisaster
recoveryfundingandassistancethatencouragesreplacingorrebuildingstructureswithahighlevelof
riskexposure.36Thesepoliciesdistortmarketforcesfavoringcoastaldevelopment.
34NewYorkStateOfficeofEmergencyManagement.NewYorkStateStandardMultiHazardMitigationPlan,
Volume 1 Section 3 Table 329: Estimated Population Residing Within Hurricane Storm Surge Zones p 3170
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AccordingtoNewYorkUniversitysInstituteforPolicyIntegrity:
AsaresultoftheNationalFloodInsurancePrograms(NFIP)belowmarketpremiumrates,
buildingin
floodplains
appears
more
attractive
to
private
developers
...
In
other
words,
the
flood
insuranceprogramencouragesprivatedevelopmentataratethatisinefficientandunsupported
fromasocialperspectivethatmorefullyconsiderstheecologicalandfinancialrisks.37
Protectingdevelopmentathighriskofcoastalfloodingthusfarhascomeatgreatexpensetothe
taxpayersofNewYorkState.Inthelastfiveyearsalone,thestatespentmorethan$22.6millionin
projectstoprotectpublicinfrastructureandcommercialandresidentialpropertyfromerosionand
floodingin
coastal
areas.
Costs
are
expected
to
continue
rising
due
to
inflation
and
market
forces.
The
predictedtotalcostfortheconstructionofaplannedLongBeach,LongIslandprojectinNassauCounty
isestimatedatover$100million,withaprojectedstateandlocalcostofroughly$3035million.Thefull
implementationoftheFireIslandInlettoMontaukPointStormDamageReductionProjectalternatives
inSuffolkCountyhasthepotentialtocostNewYorkStateandlocalgovernmentsupwardsof$500
millionoverseveraldecades.38
Currentfundingmechanismsandtechnicalexpertisehaveencouragedastructuralapproachtoshore
protection;however,thisapproachhasseveraldrawbacks.Structuralmeasuressuchasseawalls,dikes,
andbeachnourishmentprojectsareexpensivetobuildandmaintain.39Structuralmeasuresoften
interruptsedimenttransportprocesses,incurbiologicalimpactsandchangeerosionpatterns.Projects
likethesecreatebarriersthatpreventnaturalsystemsliketidalwetlandsfrommigratinginlandtoadapt
tosealevelrise.Additionally,thereisnoassurancethattheywillprovideadequateprotectionfrom
longtermsealevelrise.
Largescale
engineered
fortifications,
may
not
be
the
best
way
to
protect
large
cities
and
densely
populatedurbanareassuchasNewYorkCityfromcoastalstormimpactsandinundation.The
devastationfollowingHurricaneKatrinaresultedinanexaminationofstructuralprotectionmeasures,
leadingtofindingsthathavebroadnationalimplications.
37 Holladay S and Schwartz J Flooding the Market: The distributional costs of the NFIP Institute for Policy
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AmongthesignificantfindingsoftheNationalAcademyofEngineeringandtheNationalResearch
Council:
therisks
of
inundation
and
flooding
never
can
be
fully
eliminated
by
protective
structures
no
matterhowlargeorsturdythosestructuresmaybe.40
TheCouncilfoundthatcontinuedimplementationofprimarilystructuraldefensessendsanunreliable
messagetothepublicthattheyaresafe:"Hardstructures,likelevees,moreoftenthannotgive
coastalresidentsafalsesenseofsecurity."
Nonstructuralsolutionscanreduceoreliminatethelongtermthreatoffloodingatamuchlowerlong
termcostwithfewerimpactstonaturalsystems.Thesealternativesrelyonplanningstrategiessuchas
landacquisition,bufferzones,conservationofnaturalfloodprotectionsystems,buildingelevation,
buildingcodesandotherlocalregulations.41,42
Themostnotableresearchspecificallyevaluatingtheefficacyandefficiencyofnonstructural
approachestoriskreduction,suchaslanduseplanningincoastalareas,hasbeenconductedatTexas
A&MUniversityunderDr.SamuelD.Brody.Researchinmultiplelocalcommunitiesexaminedthe
relationshipbetween
specific
mitigation
techniques
and
insured
flood
losses
and
demonstrated
that
noneofthestructuralapproachessignificantlyreducedinsuredresidentialpropertydamage.In
contrast,almosthalfofthenonstructuralstrategieswerefoundtobesignificantlyrelatedtoreduced
lossesfromfloodsreportedtotheNationalFloodInsuranceProgram.Havingafloodpolicywithinalocal
comprehensiveordevelopmentmanagementplanwasfoundtohavethestrongeststatistical
correlationwithdamagereduction.Protectedareasandsetbacksfromfloodproneareaswerealso
significantlyassociatedwithreducedfloodloss.43
Inlightofthesefactors,federalandstateagenciesarebeginningtoincorporatenonstructuralsolutions
intotheirlongtermcoastalprotectionplanningandmanagement.
40
The
New
Orleans
Hurricane
Protection
System:
Assessing
Pre
Katrina
Vulnerability
and
Improving
Mitigation
and
Preparedness,NationalAcademyofEngineeringandNationalResearchCouncil,NationalAcademiesPress,2009.
41Jacob,JohnS.;Showalter,Stephanie.August2007.TheResilientCoast:PolicyFrameworksforAdaptingtheBuilt
EnvironmenttoClimateChangeandGrowthinCoastalAreasoftheU.S.GulfofMexico.SeaGrant Texas.
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Riskincoastalareasisalsoincreasingduetodecisionsthatfavorcoastaldevelopmentatthelocallevel.
Localgovernmentsareatthefrontlinesofdecisionmakingaboutregulation,taxation,zoning
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