Nat Cap Modeling for The Nature Conservancy and Dow Chemical Co.
Robert Griffin*, Katie Arkema, Joey Bernhardt, Joe Faries, Greg Guannel, Anne Guerry, Jess Silver, Jodie Toft, Gregg Verutes, Spencer Wood
naturalcapitalproject.org*[email protected]
Natural Capital Project Annual Meeting, 2013
Overview
Developing methods to assess “natural defenses” to protect Dow’s Freeport, TX facility from storms
Dow - Chemical company - $40B Market Cap
Dow Freeport - 5,000 acres on Gulf of Mexico - Half of U.S. production - 21% of global prod - Hurricane prone
Overview
Overview
TNC and Dow - 2011 Collaborative Agreement - 3 Pilot Projects
- Freeport, Texas- Santa Vitoria, Brazil- TBD
- Freeport Project- Air Quality and Reforestation- Freshwater Supply- Coastal Hazard Mitigation
Research Questions
Hypotheses/QuestionsGeneral: Does marsh restoration reduce the inundation level and damage from storms?Dow: To what extent is marsh restoration a substitute for levees?
Auxiliary AnalysisMarsh restoration has spillover effects to public (direct and indirect) - Direct: Protect “public” properties - Indirect: Recreation, carbon sequestration, fisheries
Valuation Framework
Net value of management options to Dow and Public
Sea level riseStorms
CoastalDevelopment
Scenarios- No restoration
(status quo)- No restoration,
build levees- Restoration
- Opportunistic- Targeted
Dow
Cost Benefit Analysis
Public
Value of avoided Dow damages
Value of avoided damages
Affected Parties Valuation
Local Forcings
Value of co-benefits
Action Costs to Dow
Responses
Natural Defenses
Storm
Land Cover
Flooding
Inundation
Damage
Physical Modeling
1.
• Estimate storm surge in response to different forcing conditions and SLR
2.
• Models changes in wave height in response to critical habitat
3.
• Surge + waves = inundation map
Avoided Damages Model
1.
• Modeled property damages to Dow and Freeport
2.
• Uses tax assessment data (public) and AIR report (Dow) for property values
3.
• Translates inundation to damage via depth-damage curves from U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Natural Defenses
Recreation
• Uses Flickr data to estimate visitation rates in an area of interest
• Predictors can be:– Natural Phenomena– Culture– Industry– Cost– Land Cover
• Matched with expenditures it can estimate changes in expenditures
Fisheries
• Fisheries model species’ propensity to respond to changes in habitat– Qualitative assessment based on changes in
critical habitat area– Returns population response as +/- and scaled
(low-high on a 5 point scale)
Carbon Sequestration
• Landcover changes can sequester carbon• Our blue carbon model outputs:– changes in carbon due to management action– social or private value of carbon
Results
• Developed assessment methods for natural defenses
• Assessment results (targeted restoration)– Salt marsh restoration does not significantly
reduce damages in this area to Dow or Freeport– NPV of carbon sequestration is $1.2 million– Recreation expenditures increase $150 million– 12 fisheries benefit
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