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Role of Renewable Energy in
Future Electricity Supply2006 NARUC Summer MeetingSan Francisco
July 30, 2006
Hank CourtrightSenior Vice President
Environment Sector andMember Services
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Renewable/Other
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Petroleum
Coal
U.S. DOE Annual Energy Outlook 2006
Generation, Billion kWh
U.S. Electricity Generation Forecast
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Renewable EnergyTechnology
Status2005 World
Installed MWIssues
Wind Commercial 52,100 Integration at LargeScale
Solar PV Commercial 3,900Conversion Efficiency
and Cost
Solar Thermal Demo andPre-Commercial
370 High Capital Cost
BiomassCombustion
Commercial 20,000 High Fuel Cost
Biomass Gasification Pilot and Demo
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State of the Global Renewable Energy Market160,000 MW Installed Growing at 25 GW/Year
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
World DCs EU 25 US Japan
SolarGeothermal
Biomass
Windpower
Small Hydro
Plus:
720,000 MW Large Hydro
220,000 MW (th) BiomassHeating
28,000 MW (th) Geothermal
Heating
77,000 MW (th) Solar Heating
1,000 MW of off-grid solar
PV systems
New RenewablesInstalled Base (000 MW)
Total Renewable Energy = 1,206,000 MW Equivalent
for Electricity and Heating Around the World
Source: Renewables 2005: Global Status Report
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Sources: AWEA, GE Wind, and ACORE
U.S. Wind Power Installations,MW/Year
9,700 MW installed base, 200535,000 MW estimated by 2015Key Issues:. Turbine availability. RPS extension past 2007. Siting and transmission
InstalledRPS RequiredNew
Wind Power
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Per capita income in 1999
45,000
25,000
5,000
Status
Completed
Proposed
Speculative
Under development
Wind Installations in U.S.
Source: GE
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Sources: PV News and ACORE
U.S. Solar PV Installations,MW/Year
E
Approximate 5,000 MW in placeAdding 1,500 MW/year globally
Key Issues: Global competition Distribution system impact
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Grid
Off-Grid
Solar PV$7 Billion/Year Global Industry
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Net Metering Programs
MA: 60 kW
CT: 100 kWRI: 25 kW
VA: 10 kW (res.);500 kW (comm.)
NJ: 2 MWDE: 25 kW
1 MW
NY: varies(10 kW - 400 kW)
Ohio:No limit
100 kW
10 kW10 kW
30 kW
25 kW
25 kW
25 kW
50 kW
25 kW
25 kW
No limit
50 kW
100 kW 40 kW
20 kW
HI: 50 kW
50 kW
OK: 100 kWor 25,000 kWh
AR: 25 kW (res.);100 kW (comm.)
LA: 25 kW (res.);100 kW (comm. or ag.)
40 kW
15 kW
IN: 10 kWand 1,000 kWh/month
GA: 10 kW (res.);100 kW (comm.)
State-WidePrograms
IndividualUtilities
ME: 100 kW
MD: 200 kW
NH: 25 kW
40 States + D.C.
VT: 15 kW,150 kW for ag.
FL: 10 kW
30 kW
DC: 100 kW
NC: 20 kW (res.);100 kW (comm.)
Source: Union of
Concerned Scientists
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500 MW Contracts
Incremental Hydro
Solar Dish-Sterling:
350 MWContracts
Solar Trough:50 MWUnderConstruction
Geothermal, Hydropower and SolarThermal-Electric
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1985 1995 2005
Million Gallons/Year
Biofuel options: Corn-based ethanol fuel Cellulosic ethanol fuel Bio-diesel U.S. and EuropeEst
Corn-Based Ethanol
Source: Renewable Fuels Association and ACORE
Renewable FuelsU.S. Ethanol and BiodieselOver $2 Billion Invested in 2005
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Goal
*PA: 18% by 2020
*NJ : 6.5% by 2008
CT: 10% by 2010
MA: 4% by 2009 +1% annual increase
WI: 2.2% by 2011
IA: 105 MW
MN: 1,125 MW wind by 2010
TX: 5,880 MW by 2015
*NM: 10% by 2011
*AZ: 1.1% by 2007
CA: 20% by 2010
*NV: 20% by 2015
ME: 30% by 2000
State RPS
*MD: 7.5% by 2019
*Minimum requirement and/or increased credit for solar PA: 8% Tier I, 10% Tier II (includes non-renewable sources)
HI: 20% by 2020
RI: 15% by 2020
*CO: 10% by 2015
*DC: 11% by 2022
January 2006
NY: 25% by 2013
MT: 15% by 2015
*DE: 10% by 2019
Renewable Portfolio Standards
Source: Interstate Renewable Energy Council
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0
6,000
12,000
18,000
24,000
30,000
36,000
42,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Meg
awatts
Pennsylvania
*Assumes regulatory enforcement of voluntary RES.
Hawaii
California
Nevada
IA & WI
New Jersey
CT & RIMAMaine
Minnesota
AZ & NM
New York
Texas
New renewable energy supported:32,000 MW by 2017
Maryland
CO & MT
Illinois*
DC & DE
Source: Union of Concerned Scientists
The Supply Effect of RPS
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0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Estimate
Projects
Technology and Service Cos
Developers
Renewable Energy Global M&AActivity, $ Millions
ACOREs RE Finance Forum 2005
Major IPOs in 2005: Q-Cells Germany SunPower USA Suntech Taiwan
Suzlon India Source: New Energy Finance
Renewable Energy Financing is Enteringthe Mainstream
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Fossil Fueled Generation Technologies in 2010
0 10 20 30 40 50
Cost of CO2, $/Metric Ton
Pulverized Coal*(PC)
Natural Gas
Combined Cycle**(NGCC)
Integrated Gasification
Combined Cycle*(IGCC)
*Coal @ $1.50/mmBtu
**Natl Gas @ $6/mmBtu
No CO2
Capture
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10Levelized Cost of Electricity, Cents/kWh
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0 10 20 30 40 50
Cost of CO2, $/Metric Ton
Wind*
Nuclear**
Biomass
Non-CO2 Emitting Generation Technologiesin 2010
* 29% Capacity Factor
** $1700/kw Capital Cost
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10Levelized Cost of Electricity, Cents/kWh
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0 10 20 30 40 50
Cost of CO2, $/Metric Ton
Wind***
Nuclear****
PC*
IGCC*
Biomass
NGCC**
*Coal @ $1.50/mmBtu **Natl Gas @ $6/mmBtu***29% Capacity Factor ****$1700/kw Capital Cost
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10Levelized Cost of Electricity, Cents/kWh
Comparative Costs of 2010 Generating Options
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Comparative Costs of 2020 Generating Options
0 10 20 30 40 50
Cost of CO2, $/Metric Ton
Nuclear****
Wind*** Biomass
NGCC**PC*
IGCC*
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10Levelized Cost of Electricity, Cents/kWh
*Coal @ $1.50/mmBtu **Natl Gas @ $6/mmBtu***29% Capacity Factor ****$1700/kw Capital Cost
Wi d d Bi St t d EPRI
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Historical and Projected Installed Wind Capacity 1981 - 2009
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Year
InstalledCapacity(MW)
Europe U.S. Rest of World
Wind and Biomass Status and EPRIProgram Direction
Wind: Maturing technology and significant
resources, ~50 GW worldwide. Wind will
play important role as non-emittinggeneration of choice.
Future focus on integration issues on/off shore, forecasting, conditionmonitoring, emerging operation andmaintenance issues as utility own wind.
Biomass: Fits utilitys traditional model, central dispatchable,
interest has been with co-firing, testing, corrosionassessment, etc.
Direction is to track European experience broadenlook to biofuels, gasification, more co-firing tests,develop biomass deposition.
Source: BTM Consult, World Market Update, 2005
T h l St t d EPRI P Di ti
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Subsurface temperaturesat 6-km depth (deg C)
Technology Status and EPRI Program Directionwith Solar, Geothermal and Ocean Energy
Solar Energy:
Rooftop/building PV will emergewith cost/efficiency improvement.
Solar thermal is better utility fitbut unproven and less upside.
EPRI monitoring for PV breakthrough, evaluatingsolar thermal technology demonstrations.
Geothermal Energy:
2500 MW in the U.S., mostly in California andHawaii. Issues include high cost of geothermalwells, decrease output over time.
Utility interest has waned, we will monitor.
Ocean Energy: A few hundred kW worldwide, ocean tidal and wave
energy offers significant potential, 1020 years out.
EPRI opportunity is in early demonstrations and leadershipin the national program, including related wind-wave and
hydro-kinetic turbines.
Source: NREL