CAPITOLUL 13
POLITICI FINANCIAR MONETARE 102'(/8/2)(57 */2%$/ - CERERE
*/2%$/
0RGHOXO RIHUW JOREDO - FHUHUH JOREDO 2*-CG) extinde modelul IS-/0SULQLQFOXGHUHDSLH HLPXQFLLDVWIHOvQFkWHFKLOLEUXO
general al economiei ia n considerare treLVHJPHQWHGHSLD SLD D
EXQXULORULVHUYLFLLORUSLD DPRQHWDU LSLD DPXQFLL([WHQVLDQX
HVWH QXPDL GH FXSULQGHUH FL L GH FRQ LQXW vQWUXFkW VXQW OXDWH vQ
FRQVLGHUDUHYDULD LLOHQLYHOXOXLJHQHUDODOSUH XULORULDUSULQDFHDVWD
VH vQORFXLHWH LSRWH]D DMXVW ULL DXWRQRPH D RIHUWHL FX LSRWH]DPDL
FRQIRUP UHDOLW LLHFRQRPLFHDGHWHUPLQ ULLDFHVWHLDSULQSUH &D
HIHFW DO DFHVWHL DERUG UL PRGHOXO JHQHUHD] SH ED]D FHORU WUHL
VHJPHQWHGHSLD RIXQF LHJOREDO DRIHUWHLLRIXQF LHJOREDO D
cereULLFDUHGHWHUPLQ SURGXVXOVRFLDOJOREDOQHWLQLYHOXOJHQHUDO
DOSUH XULORU&XWRDWHF VHOXFUHD] VLPXOWDQSHFHOHWUHLSLH HQX
H[LVW DSULRUL QLFL R FHUWLWXGLQH F YHQLWXO GH HFKLOLEUX SURGXVXO
VRFLDO JOREDO QHW DU FRUHVSXQGH VLWXD LHL GH RFXSDUH GHSOLQ D
PXQFLL 3HQWUX FD]XO FXUHQW DO IRORVLULL LQFRPSOHWH D IRU HL GH
PXQF SROLWLFD GH FHUHUH S VWUHD] UHVXUVHGH LQIOXHQ IDYRUDELO
vQ VHQVXO FUHWHULL JUDGXOXL GH RFXSDUH I U vQV DGHYHQL IDFWRU
H[FOXVLY FL R YDULDQW GH LQWHUYHQ LH SRVLELO L XQHRUL HILFLHQW
DO WXULGHFHOHODOWHWLSXULGHSROLWLFL
13.1. Modelul OG -&*vQHFRQRPLDvQFKLV LHIHFWXOpoliticilor financiar - monetare
0RGHOXOSUH]LQW RYDULDQW GHED] FODVLF LRYDULDQW
VWDQGDUGGLIHUHQ LDWHSULQIDSWXOF SULPDSRUQHWHGHODHFKLOLEUXO
GHSHSLD DPXQFLLvQWLPSFHDGRXDDFFHSW RFXSDUHDLQFRPSOHW
D IRU HL GH PXQF $QDOL]D FDOLWDWLY UHDOL]DW FX DMXWRUXO DFHVWXL
PRGHOSHUPLWHFDOLILFDUHDSROLWLFLORUPDFURHFRQRPLFHFDLVWXGLXO
formelor de manifestarHDLQIOD LHL
&RQFHSHUHD PRGHOXOXL L IXQF LRQDUHD VD VH ED]HD] SH
confruntarea cerere-RIHUW FDUH GHWHUPLQ SURGXF LD L QLYHOXO
SUH XULORU GH DVHPHQHD PRGHOXO XWLOL]HD] FRQFHSWHOH PRGHOXOXL
IS-LM, pe care, de altfel, le extinde.
)XQF LDFererii globale )XQF LD FHUHULL JOREDOH VH GHWHUPLQ SRUQLQG GH OD SLD D
EXQXULORULVHUYLFLLORULGHODSLD DPRQHWDU LIDFHOHJ WXUDvQWUH
FHUHUH L QLYHOXO SUH XULORU $FHDVW IXQF LH HVWH GHVFUHVF WRDUH
FUHWHUHDSUH XULORUGHWHUPLQ RGHSODVDUHD curbei LM spre stnga,
finalizndu-se printr-RUHGXFHUHDYHQLWXOXLUHGXFHUHDSUH XULORUDUH
un efect invers. Acest mecanism este cunoscut sub numele de efect
Keynes, pe care autorul l-D H[SOLFDW L SH VHDPD SLH HL PRQHWDUH
prin rata dobnzii.
Astfel, QFD]XOFUHWHULLSUH XULORUVHGLPLQXHD] SXWHUHDGH
FXPS UDUHDFXPS U WRULORUDGLF DWLWXODULORUGHYHQLWXUL,PSOLFLW
VH GLPLQXHD] YDORDUHD UHDO D YHQLWXULORU ORU 0S FHHD FH
PLFRUHD] vQPRGUHODWLYFDQWLWDWHDGHEDQLGHSHSLD 7LWXODULLGH
YHQLWXULYRUUHGLPHQVLRQDUDSRUWXOvQWUHEDQLLGHVWLQD LFRQVXPXOXL
L FHL FRQVLGHUD LGLVSRQLELOL SHQWUXSODVDPHQWHVSHFXOD LL FHHDFH
YDGXFH ODRFUHWHUHDUDWHLGREkQ]LLGDWRULW GLPLQX ULLPDVHLGH
EDQLDORFDWHDFHVWXLDOGRLOHDVFRS&UHWHUHDUDWei dobnzii duce la
RUHGXFHUHDFHUHULLGHLQYHVWL LLL LPSOLFLWDFHOHLJOREDOH$FHVW
PHFDQLVPHVWHLQIOXHQ DWGHHODVWLFLWDWHDFHUHULLGHEDQLvQUDSRUWFX
UDWDGREkQ]LLHIHFWXOV XGLPLQXkQGX-VHSHP VXU FHFHUHUHDHVWH
PDL HODVWLF L GLVS UkQG vQ FD] GH OLSV GH OLFKLGLW L Q FD]XO
UHGXFHULL SUH XULORU GHSHQGHQ HOH HYLGHQ LDWH SULQ DFHVWPHFDQLVP
se produc n sens opus.
3H GH DOW SDUWH FUHWHUHD SUH XULORU SRDWH LPSOLFD R
GHSODVDUH VSUH VWkQJD D FXUEHL ,6 L R GLPLQXDUH D YHQLWXOXL Q
termHQLL PRGHOXOXL GH ED] FODVLF DFHDVWD JHQHUHD] HIHFWH SH
SLD D EXQXULORU L VHUYLFLLORU vQ VHQVXO F R FUHWHUH D SUH XULORU
VHPQLILF GLPLQXDUHD YDORULL UHDOH D YHQLWXULORU FRQVXPDWRULORU
FHHD FH UHGXFH FHUHUHD GH FRQVXP L LPSOLFLW SH FHD JOREDO . n FD]XOUHGXFHULLGHSUH FRQH[LXQLOHVHSURGXFvQVHQVXQLF
)XQF LDRIHUWHLJOREDOH
)XQF LD RIHUWHL JOREDOH VH GHWHUPLQ SRUQLQG GH OD SLD D
PXQFLL L GH OD IXQF LD GH SURGXF LH L IDFH OHJ WXUD vQWUH RIHUWD
vQWUHSULQGHULORU L QLYHOXO SUH XULORU $FHDVW IXQF LH HVWH
FUHVF WRDUH L GHSHQGHQW GH QLYHOXO SUH XULORU UHIOHFWkQG
FRPSRUWDPHQWXO GH SH SLD D PXQFLL GDF VDODULLOH FUHVF DWXQFL
RIHUWD GH PXQF VH P UHWH Q FRQGL LLOH YDULDQWHL GH ED]
PHFDQLVPXOIXQF LRQHD] GHWHUPLQkQGQLYHOXOGHHFKLOLEUXDOSLH HL
PXQFLL FDUH HVWH FRQVLGHUDW DFRUHVSXQGHRFXS ULLGHSOLQHD IRU HL
GH PXQF Q FRQGL LLOH YDULDQWHL VWDQGDUG PHFDQLVPXO
IXQF LRQHD] JHQHUkQG XQ DQXPLW JUDG GH RFXSDUH GHWHUPLQDW GH
IXQF LDGHSURGXF LHQDFHDVW YDULDQW DPRGHOXOXLFD]XORFXS ULL
GHSOLQH D IRU HL GHPXQF HVWH XQ FD] SDUWLFXODU L OLPLW SHQWUX
FDUHJUDILFXOIXQF LHLGHRIHUW HVWHYHUWLFDO
0HFDQLVPXO HFKLOLEUXOXL HFRQRPLF vQ FRQGL LLOH DFHVWXL
PRGHO LD vQ FRQVLGHUDUH U VSXQVXO RIHUWHL GH PXQF OD
FUHWHUHDUHGXFHUHD SUH XULORU 'DF SUH XULOH FUHVF VDODULLOH UHDOH
VFDG QP VXUD vQ FDUH RIHUWD GHPXQF QX VH UHGXFH UH]XOW F
RIHUWDQ LL GH PXQF VXQW LQWHUHVD L vQ PRG KRW UkWRU GH VDODULXO
QRPLQDO$FHDVW vPSUHMXUDUH HVWHGHQXPLW LOX]LHPRQHWDU , de
FDUHEHQHILFLD] vQWUHSULQ] WRULLDGLF FHLFHIRUPXOHD] FHUHUHDGH
PXQF $VWIHO VLPSOLILFkQG OXFUXULOHGDF VDODULLOHQRPLQDOHVXQW
IL[H FUHWHUHD SUH XULORU GHWHUPLQ UHGXFHUHD VDODULLORU UHDOH FHHD
FHDWUDJHRFUHWHUHDFHUHULLGHPXQF SHQWUXF PXQFDGHYLQHR
PDUI UHODWLY PDL LHIWLQ vQ FRPSDUD LH FX FHOHODOWH $FHVW
FRPSRUWDPHQWVHUHIOHFW vQHYROX LDRIHUWHLGHEXQXUL$FHDVWDHVWH
OHJDW GH FHUHUHD GH PXQF PDL H[DFW GH FDQWLWDWHD GH PXQF
IRORVLW GHSURGXF WRULSULQIXQF LDGHSURGXF LH'HRDUHFHPXQFD
HVWHPDLLHIWLQ WHQWD LDSURGXF WRULORUHVWHV P UHDVF YROXPXOGH
PXQF XWLOL]DWGDURIHUWDGHEXQXULUH]XOWDW VXSOLPHQWDUQXSRDWH
ILDEVRUELW GLQFDX]DGLPLQX ULLVDODULXOXLUHDO&UHWHUHDGHSUH XUL
VWLPXOHD] RIHUWD GDU QX DUH HIHFWXO VFRQWDW Q VLWXD LD XWLOL] ULL
GHSOLQH D IRU HL GHPXQF FHHD FH FRQVWLWXLH FD]XO OLPLW RIHUWD
GHYLQHWRWDOLQHODVWLF JUDILFXOHLHVWHYHUWLFDOGHRDUHFHSURGXF LD
QXSRDWHFUHWHvQFLXGDFUHWHULLSUH XULORU
13.1.3. Echilibrul gOREDOLRPDMXOFDUDFWHULVWLFLOH
politicilor economice de remediere Q YDULDQWD GH ED] FODVLF D PRGHOXOXL 2*-&* IXQF LD
RIHUWHL JOREDOH HVWH YHUWLFDO DGLF RIHUWD HVWH LQHODVWLF ID GH
SUH LDU HFKLOLEUXO GH SH SLD D PXQFLL 1H GHWHUPLQ QLYHOul de
HFKLOLEUXDOSURGXF LHL
deplasarea spre dreapta a curbei cererii, din CG0 n CG1. Deoarece
SURGXF LD HVWH ULJLG LQHODVWLF OD SUH SXQFWXO GH HFKLOLEUX VH
GHSODVHD] GLQ$vQ%SURGXFkQGFDHIHFWGRDUFUHWHUHDSUH XULORU
3ROLWLFD HVWH LQHILFLHQW GHRDUHFH QX FRQGXFH QLFL OD FUHWHUHD
SURGXF LHLQLFLODFUHWHUHDYROXPXOXLGHPXQF DWUDVvQSURGXF LH
)LJ(FKLOLEUXOSLH HLPXQFLLLHFKLOLEUXOJOREDOvQYDULDQWD GHED] FODVLF DPRGHOXOXL2* CG
n varianta standard a modelului OG &* IXQF LDRIHUWHLJOREDOHHVWHRIXQF LHFXGRX UDPXULRUDPXU FUHVF WRDUHSHQWUX
FD]XO RFXS ULL LQFRPSOHWH D IRU HL GHPXQF L R D GRXD UDPXU
YHUWLFDO SHQWUX FD]XO RFXS ULL FRPSOHWH D IRU HL GH PXQF
(FKLOLEUXOGHSHSLD DEXQXULORULVHUYLFLLORUHFKLOLEUXOSURGXF LHL
2FXSDUHD LQFRPSOHW D IRU HLGHPXQF HVWH FD]XO FHOPDL
IUHFYHQWvQWkOQLWvQSUDFWLFDHFRQRPLF LGHDFHHDHVWHFHOPDLPXOW
VWXGLDW Q DFHVW FD] SXQFWXO GH HFKLOLEUX VH VLWXHD] SH UDPXUD
FUHVF WRDUH D IXQF LHL RIHUWHL JOREDOH LDU HFKLOLEUXO VH QXPHWH
echilibrul de subutilizareRPDMXODIHUHQWVHQXPHWHRPDMGH
tip keynesist L HVWH UH]XOWDWXO XQHL LQVXILFLHQWHP ULPL D FHUHULL
JOREDOHDGLF DOVLWX ULLSUHDVSUHVWkQJDDFXUEHLDFHVWHLD3XWHUHD
SXEOLF SRate interveni cu politici economice de stimulare a cererii,
FDUH JHQHUHD] HIHFWHOH PHQ LRQDWH PDL VXV DVWIHO vQFkW SROLWLFD
UHVSHFWLY VH GRYHGHWH D IL HILFLHQW - DGLF GXFH OD GLPLQXDUHD
gradului de neocupare a muncii. Stimularea cererii prin politici
JXYHUQDPHQWDOH VH IDFH GH UHJXO SULQ PLMORDFH EXJHWDUH VDX
PRQHWDUH $FHVWH PLMORDFH JHQHUHD] vQ DIDUD HIHFWXOXL XUP ULW
FUHWHUHD JUDGXOXL GH RFXSDUH L XQ HIHFW DGLDFHQW QHGRULW -
FUHWHUHDSUH XULORUvQILJXUDGHODS0 la p1). Efectul nedorit este UH]XOWDWXOILHDOFUHWHULLFHUHULLJOREDOHFDUH]XOWDWDOVXSOLPHQW ULL
FKHOWXLHOLORUSXEOLFHILHDOPRQHWL] ULLHFRQRPLFH0RGHOXODWHVW R
OHJ WXU GHWLSGLUHFWvQWUHQLYHOXOGHDFWLYLWDWHLQLYHOXOJHQHUDODO
SUH XULORU FD UH]XOWDW DO YDULD LHL FHUHULL $FHDVWD VXJHUHD]
H[LVWHQ DXQHL UHOD LL LQYHUVH vQWUHRPDML LQIOD LH UHOD LHSXV vQ
HYLGHQ SULQ IXQF LD OXL 3KLOLSV 5HOD LD RPDM-LQIOD LH HVWH
FRQGL LRQDW GHUDSRUWXOGLQWUHHIHFWXOGHSUH LHIHFWXOGHYHQLW/D
UkQGXOV XDFHVW raport depinde de elasticitatea-SUH DRIHUWHLFXFkW
DFHDVWD HVWHPDLPDUH FX DWkW UDSRUWXO HVWHPDLPDUH L LPSOLFLW
LQIOD LDJHQHUHD] XQRPDMPDLPDUH
13.1.4. Modelul simplificat OG - CG
Spre deosebire de modelele prezentate anterior, n care
SUH XOHUDIL[vQDFHVWPRGHOSUH XOHVWHFRQVLGHUDWYDULDELO
0RGHOXO VLPSOLILFDW RIHUW JOREDO -FHUHUH JOREDO FXSULQGH
trei module:
a) XQ PRGXO GH WLS LQYHVWL LL-HFRQRPLL ,6 vQ FDUH IXQF LD GHFRQVXP HVWH PRGLILFDW SULQ LQFOXGHUHD QLYHOXOXL JHQHUDO DO
SUH XULORUSFDUHDIHFWHD] FRQVXPXOSULQWU-RUHOD LHLQYHUV L
DO F UHL LPSDFW HVWH FXDQWLILFDWSULQWU-un factor de sensitivitate
(h), exprimnd modificarea consumului la modificarea cu o XQLWDWHDQLYHOXOXLJHQHUDODOSUH XULORU
IXQF LDGHFRQVXP
( )& F < 7Q & K S= + 0 (1.1) IXQF LDGHLQYHVWL LL
, D < E U ,= + 0 (1.2) HFXD LDGHHFKLOLEUX
< & , *= + + (1.3) valorile e[RJHQH DOH FKHOWXLHOLORU JXYHUQDPHQWDOH L
impozitelor nete:
* * Q 7Q= =0 0 7 (1.4) b) XQPRGXO GH WLS FHUHUH GHPRQHG -RIHUW GHPRQHG /0 vQ
FDUH IXQF LD FHUHULL GH EDQL HVWH PRGLILFDW SULQ LQFOXGHUHD
DFHOXLDL QLYHO JHQHUDO DO SUH XULORU FDUH DIHFWHD] FHUHUHD GH
bani printr-R UHOD LH GLUHFW L DO F UXL LPSDFW HVWH FXDQWLILFDW
printr-XQIDFWRUGHVHQVLWLYLWDWHMH[SULPkQGYDULD LDFHUHULLGH
EDQLODYDULD LDFXRXQLWDWHDQLYHOXOXLJHQHUDODOSUH XULORU
IXQF ia cererii de bani:
0G O < O U / M S= + + 1 1 2 0 (2.1) nivelul ofertei de bani, dat exogen:
0V 0= 0 (2.2) HFXD LDGHHFKLOLEUXSHSLD DPRQHWDU
0G 0V= (2.3) c) XQ PRGXO UHSUH]HQWkQG IXQF LD GH RIHUW
YDULD LD RIHUWHL OD YDULD LD FX R XQLWDWH D QLYHOXOXL JHQHUDO DO
SUH XULORU L vQ FDUH HVWH LQWURGXV XQ IDFWRU GH FRUHF LH S0) UHSUH]HQWkQGQLYHOXOPLQLPGHSUH VXEFDUHRIHUWDHVWHQXO
( )N S S
0 GDF S ! S
GDF S S
(3)
'LQPRGXOXO,6VHVHOHFWHD]
++ 02
02
pl
jbhMlb
(5.1)
SN
< S = +1
0 (5.2)
5HOD LD H[SULP RIHUWD JOREDO LDU UHOD LD FHUHUHD
JOREDO LHOHGHILQHVFIRQGXOPRGHOXOXLFDPRGHODORIHUWHLJOREDOH
L DO FHUHULL JOREDOH 3DQWD IXQF LHL GH RIHUW HVWH N LDU SDQWD
IXQF LHLGHFHUHUHHVWH
( )+
+
=
+
+
KE M
O
F DE O
O
K O E M
O F D E O2
1
2
2
2 11 1. (6)
3DQWD IXQF LHL GH FHUHUH HVWH QHJDWLY L HVWH GHWHUPLQDW
SULQQXP U WRUGHVHQVLWLYLW LOHIXQF LLORUGHFRQVXPLQYHVWL LLL
FHUHUH GH EDQL vQ UDSRUW FX SUH XULOH )XQF LLOH GH FRQVXP L
LQYHVWL LLOHGHILQHVFFHUHUHDSHSLD DEXQXULORULVHUYLFLLORUEXQXUL
L VHUYLFLL GH FRQVXP L EXQXUL L VHUYLFLL GH LQYHVWL LL IXQF LD
FHUHULLGHEDQLGHILQHWHFHUHUHDSHSLD DPRQHWDU PSUHXQ FXHOH
GHILQHVF FHUHUHD JOREDO 3UH XULOH GH FDUH FHOH WUHL IXQF LL VXQW
GHSHQGHQWH VXQW SUH XOWDULIXO SHQWUXEXQXUL L VHUYLFLLGHFRQVXP
SLSUH XOEDQLORUUHVSHFWLYUDWDGREkQ]LLU
(ODVWLFLWDWHD FHUHULL JOREDOH GHSLQGH GH WR L SDUDPHWULL
PRGXOHORU,6L/0LHVWHFXDWkWPDLPDUHFXFkW
VXQW PDL PDUL vQFOLQD LD PDUJLQDO VSUH FRQVXP F L VSUH
LQYHVWL LL D VHQVLWLYLWDWHD FRQVXPXOXL vQ raport cu nivelul
JHQHUDODOSUH XULORUKLVHQVLWLYLWDWHDFHUHULLGHEDQLvQUDSRUW
FXQLYHOXOJHQHUDODOSUH XULORUM
HVWHPDLPLF VHQVLWLYLWDWHDFHUHULLGHEDQLvQUDSRUWFXSURGXVXO
final (l1). ,PSDFWXO VHQVLWLYLW LORU LQYHVWL LLORU L D FHUHrii de bani n
UDSRUWFXUDWDGREkQ]LLELUHVSHFWLYO2) este confuz ntruct cei GRL SDUDPHWUL DSDU DWkW OD QXP U WRUXO FkW L OD QXPLWRUXO
UHVSHFWLYHLHODVWLFLW L
0 ULPHD FHUHULL JOREDOH FD L SR]L LD HL vQWU-un plan de
coordonate (Y,p) sunt dependente de nivelele autonome ale LQYHVWL LLORU FKHOWXLHOLORU JXYHUQDPHQWDOH LPSR]LWHORU QHWH L
RIHUWHL GH EDQL SULPHOH WUHL LQkQG GH PRGXOXO ,6 LDU XOWLPD GH
PRGXOXO/0IDFWRULSULQFDUHVHUHIOHFW SROLWLFLOHPDFURHFRQRPLFH
prin care poate intervenLDXWRULWDWHDSXEOLF
1LYHOXOGHHFKLOLEUXDOSURGXVXOXLILQDO