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MLC Investments Performance Update
Year ended 30 September 2009
General advice warning and disclaimer
Any advice in this communication has been prepared without taking account of individual objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on any information in this communication, consider whether it is appropriate to your objectives, financial situation and needs. You should obtain a Product Disclosure Statement or other disclosure document relating to any financial product issued by MLC Investments Limited (ABN 30 002 641 661) and MLC Nominees Pty Ltd (ABN 93 002 814 959) as trustee of The Universal Super Scheme (ABN 44 928 361 101), and consider it before making any decision about whether to acquire or continue to hold the product. A copy of the Product Disclosure Statement or other disclosure document is available upon request by phoning the MLC call centre on 132 652 or on our website at mlc.com.au.
An investment in any product offered by a member company of the National group does not represent a deposit with or a liability of the National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 or other member company of the National Australia Bank group of companies and is subject to investment risk including possible delays in repayment and loss or income and capital invested. None of the National Australia Bank Limited, MLC Limited, MLC Investments Limited or other member company in the National Australia Bank group of companies guarantees the capital value, payment of income or performance of any financial product referred to in this publication.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The value of an investment may rise or fall with the changes in the market. Please note that all return figures reported are before management fees and taxes, and for the period up to 30 September 2009, unless otherwise stated.
The specialist investment management companies are current as at 30 September 2009. Funds under management figures are as at 30 September 2009, unless otherwise stated. Investment managers are regularly reviewed and may be appointed or removed at any time without prior notice to you.
Contents
• The recent environment• Impact on asset class returns• Impact on MLC multi-manager funds• The outlook
The view through the rear view mirror still looks awful
Source: Datastream
US
-6-4-20246
Q1 1999 Q1 2002 Q1 2005 Q1 2008
Annual growth in real GDP %
Eurozone
-6-4-20246
Q1 1999 Q1 2002 Q1 2005 Q1 2008
Annual growth in real GDP %
Japan
-10
-5
0
5
Q1 1999 Q1 2002 Q1 2005 Q1 2008
Annual growth in real GDP %
UK
-6-4-20246
Q1 1999 Q1 2002 Q1 2005 Q1 2008
Annual growth in real GDP %
The windscreen looks much better..
Source: Datastream
Euro-area leading indicators and industrial production
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Aug-99 Aug-01 Aug-03 Aug-05 Aug-07 Aug-09
Industrial output
Leading indicator
6 mthly % change
Japanese leading indicators and industrial production
-35-30-25-20-15-10
-505
10
Aug-99 Aug-01 Aug-03 Aug-05 Aug-07 Aug-09
Industrial output
Leading indicator
6 mthly % change
UK leading indicators and industrial production
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Aug-99 Aug-01 Aug-03 Aug-05 Aug-07 Aug-09
Industrial output Leading indicator
6 mthly % change
US leading indicators and industrial production
-12-10
-8-6-4-202468
Aug-99 Aug-01 Aug-03 Aug-05 Aug-07 Aug-09
Industrial output
Leading indicator
6 mthly % change
The emerging world is powering along!
The Stress index is based on external debt, budget deficit, credit growth vs GDP, and the current A/c balance. Periods of high stress for emerging markets explain poor absolute and relative economic performance vs the developed world.
What a difference 6 months makes!
*
Index data source: S&P/ASX 300, MSCI All Countries (hedged), MSCI All Countries, MSCI Emerging Markets, S&P/ASX 200 LPT, UBS Global REIT (hedged), UBS Composite Bond (all mats), BCGA Global Agg (hedged), BCGA US Corp HY BB/B (hedged), UBS Inflation Linked Bonds (all mats), UBS Australian Bank Bill respectively.
Gross Asset Class Returns
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Aust'nShares
GlobalShares
(Hedged)
GlobalShares
(Unhedged)
Em. Mktsshares
A-REITs Global REITs(Hedged)
Aust'n Nom.bonds
Global Nom.Bonds
Global HighYield Bonds
(Hedged)
Aust'n CPIbonds
Cash
3-Months to Sept 2009 1 Year to March 2009 1 Year to Sept 2009
Significant positive impact on your MLC Horizon Portfolio
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
MLCHorizon 1
MLCHorizon 2
MLCHorizon 3
MLCHorizon 4
MLCHorizon 5
MLCHorizon 6
MLCHorizon 7
MLC LTAR
To
tal R
etu
rns
(%
p.a
.)
Year to 31 March 2009 Year to 30 September 2009 3 months to September 2009
Returns quoted are for the MLC Super Fundamentals Horizon series and are net of admin fees, issuer fees, investment fees and super tax, but before the deduction of entry/exit fees and policy charges.
-27.0%
-18.0%
-9.0%
0.0%
9.0%
18.0%
27.0%
Mar 1988 Oct 1989 May 1991 Dec 1992 Jul 1994 Feb 1996 Sep 1997 Apr 1999 Nov 2000 Jun 2002 Jan 2004 Aug 2005 Mar 2007 Oct 2008
Ret
urn
(%
pa
)
12 Month Rolling Return 3 Year Rolling Return 5 Year Rolling Return
Return in Personal Super Multi-Sector Balanced Growth from Mar 1988 to Sep 2009MLC0424AU (after tax and after fees)
MLC MK Sup GS - Horizon 4 Balanced
MLC Horizon 4 - Consistent added value across market cycles
MLC Horizon 4’s 5 year return has never dipped below 0% in the past. Losses over 1 year periods occur relatively regularly.
The rally in risky assets of CYTD2009 is reflected in the up tick in total returns on the RHS.
Source: Mercers Retail Balanced Growth Universe, net of super tax and Gold star fees. Mercer data updated around the 20th day after month end.
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
Jun 1993 Sep 1994 Dec 1995 Mar 1997 Jun 1998 Sep 1999 Dec 2000 Mar 2002 Jun 2003 Sep 2004 Dec 2005 Mar 2007 Jun 2008 Sep 2009
Ex
cess
Ret
urn
(%
pa
)
12 Month Rolling Excess Return 3 Year Rolling Excess Return 5 Year Rolling Excess Return
Excess Return in Personal Super Multi-Sector Balanced Growth from Jun 1993 to Sep 2009MLC0424AU versus Median (after tax and after fees)
MLC MK Sup GS - Horizon 4 Balanced
MLC Horizon 4 – Competitive peer relative returns
% of time outperformed competitors:1 year: 50%3 years: 61%5 years: 72%
Source: Mercers Retail Balanced Growth Universe, net of super tax and Gold star fees. Mercer data updated around the 20th day after month end.
4.0%
5.5%
7.0%
8.5%
10.0%
11.5%
13.0%
Mar 1992 Jul 1993 Nov 1994 Mar 1996 Jul 1997 Nov 1998 Mar 2000 Jul 2001 Nov 2002 Mar 2004 Jul 2005 Nov 2006 Mar 2008 Jul 2009
Sta
nd
ard
Dev
iati
on
(%
pa
)
5 Year Rolling Standard Deviation Median Upper Quartile Lower Quartile
Standard Deviation in Personal Super Multi-Sector Balanced Growth from Mar 1992 to Sep 2009MLC0424AU (after tax and after fees)
MLC MK Sup GS - Horizon 4 Balanced
MLC Super Horizon 4: lower than peer volatility helps manage risk
The MLC Super GS Balanced Portfolio has had lower volatility than peers 62% of the time.
Source: Mercers Retail Balanced Growth Universe, net of super tax and Gold star fees. Mercer data updated around the 20th day after month end.
Disciplined rebalancing & daily dollar cost averaging has contributed to your recovery
Value of $100 invested in MLC Super GS Horizon 4 Balanced Portfolio on 24th Sept 1999, Net of super tax and all Retail fees
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
22nd Jan, 3rd July, 9th Oct and 19th Nov: Maintained your portfolio strategy by selling bonds and buying Aust’n & global shares.
7th April, 11th June, 31st July and 14th Aug: Maintained your portfolio strategy by selling Australian shares & buying bonds and global shares.
Returns based on MLC Super GS Horizon 4 Balanced Portfolio and are net of management fees which include administration fees, issuer fees and investment fees and any Super tax payable, but do not take into account entry/exit fees or policy charges.
The recovery of the Australian share market has been substantial…
Chart of S&P/ASX300 Accum. Index (year to Novermber 2009)
Nov2008
Dec Jan2009
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2100021500220002250023000235002400024500250002550026000265002700027500280002850029000295003000030500310003150032000325003300033500
The market returned +8.5% in the year and is 55% higher than its low point in March
… and clients have participated fully in the market’s recovery: Excess returns of MLC Australian shares strategy (top) and Managers (bottom) year to 30 September 2009
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Dimensional
Lazard
Maple-Brown Abbott
Balanced Equity
Contango
Concord
J ardine
Wallara
Northcape
Northward Capital
Rolling Performance in Excess of the IndexMLC MasterKey Super Fundamentals Australian Share Portfolio
(before taking into account fees and tax)
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
De
c-9
0
Ju
n-9
1
De
c-9
1
Ju
n-9
2
De
c-9
2
Ju
n-9
3
De
c-9
3
Ju
n-9
4
De
c-9
4
Ju
n-9
5
De
c-95
Ju
n-9
6
De
c-9
6
Ju
n-9
7
De
c-9
7
Ju
n-98
De
c-9
8
Ju
n-9
9
De
c-9
9
Ju
n-0
0
De
c-0
0
Ju
n-0
1
De
c-0
1
Ju
n-0
2
De
c-02
Ju
n-0
3
De
c-0
3
Ju
n-0
4
De
c-0
4
Ju
n-05
De
c-0
5
Ju
n-0
6
De
c-0
6
Ju
n-0
7
De
c-0
7
Ju
n-0
8
De
c-0
8
Ju
n-0
9
De
c-0
9
An
nu
alis
ed
Ex
ce
ss
Re
tu
rn
(S&
P/A
SX
30
0 A
ccu
mu
latio
n I
nd
ex
)
1 Year 3 Years 5 Years
MLC’s managers have successfully identified banks as superior performers
Return of Financials (ex REITs) versus Market
Oct2008
Nov Dec Jan2009
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
1.06
1.08
1.1
1.12
1.14
1.16
1.18
1.2
1.22
1.24
1.26
1.28
1.3
MLC IncomeBuilder’s 2009-10 distribution is forecast to be lower than last year’s• Company profits are weaker and are expected to remain under pressure for much of the
remainder of the year• Many companies have responded to the difficult environment by cutting dividends (e.g. ANZ’s
latest dividend is 24% lower than last years)• Dividend income received by MLC IncomeBuilderTM will be therefore be down this year.• Stocks such as Coca-Cola Amatil (2.4% of MLC IncomeBuilderTM portfolio) with a strong
history of dividend growth will help cushion the impact ($10,000 invested in Coca-Cola Amatil shares on 30/06/99 would so far have provided $8,800 of dividends +franking credits)
Coca-Cola AmatilDividend History
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
99 - 00 00 - 01 01 - 02 02 - 03 03 - 04 04 - 05 05 - 06 06 - 07 07 - 08 08 - 09
Ce
nts
MLC’s AREIT strategy has protected investors from the worst of the sector’s fall (and it’s worst performers)
• Massive capital raisings have stabilised the sector but issues remain (concentration, retail dominance, lack of choice).
• MLC’s AREIT strategy has substantially outperformed with both appointed managers also outperforming (left diagram). Underperformance in the quarter was due to better returns of poor quality REITs
• Sector issues require an active management approach to differentiate between good and bad within the sector.
Rolling Performance in Excess of the IndexMLC MasterKey Super Fundamentals Australian REIT Portfolio
(before taking into account fees and tax)
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
De
c-9
0
Ju
n-9
1
De
c-9
1
Ju
n-9
2
De
c-9
2
Ju
n-9
3
De
c-9
3
Ju
n-9
4
De
c-9
4
Ju
n-9
5
De
c-9
5
Ju
n-9
6
De
c-9
6
Ju
n-9
7
De
c-9
7
Ju
n-9
8
De
c-9
8
Ju
n-9
9
De
c-9
9
Ju
n-0
0
De
c-0
0
Ju
n-0
1
De
c-0
1
Ju
n-0
2
De
c-0
2
Ju
n-0
3
De
c-0
3
Ju
n-0
4
De
c-0
4
Ju
n-0
5
De
c-0
5
Ju
n-0
6
De
c-0
6
Ju
n-0
7
De
c-0
7
Ju
n-0
8
De
c-0
8
Ju
n-0
9
De
c-0
9
An
nu
ali
se
d E
xc
es
s R
etu
rn
(S
&P
/AS
X 3
00
LP
T I
nd
ex
)
1 Year 3 Years 5 Years
Manager Performance in Excess of the IndexMLC MasterKey Super Fundamentals Australian REIT Portfolio
(before taking into account fees and tax)
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Resolution Capital Challenger
Exc
ess
Ret
urn
vs
S&
P/A
SX
300
LP
T In
dex
(An
nu
alis
ed f
or
per
iod
s g
reat
er t
han
1 y
ear)
5 Years to Sep-09 3 years to Sep-09 1 Year to Sep-09 Quarter to Sep-09
MLC’s Global REIT strategy has also protected investors from the worst of the sector’s fall
• MLC’s Global REIT strategy has outperformed the index with a high degree of consistency (below diagram).
• Manager returns have generally been better than index (except recently).
• Holdings of Asian REITs and underweighting Australia have until recently been very rewarding
• The breadth of the sector, with over 200 REITs to choose from, justifies an active management approach to differentiate between good and bad within the sector.
Rolling Performance in Excess of the IndexMLC MasterKey Super Fundamentals Global REIT Portfolio
(before taking into account fees and tax)
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
Se
p-0
6
Ma
r-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Ma
r-0
8
Se
p-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Se
p-0
9
An
nu
alis
ed
E
xc
es
s R
etu
rn
UB
S R
eal E
sta
te In
ves
to
rs
T
ru
st In
de
x (h
ed
ge
d)
1 Year 3 Years
Manager Performance in Excess of the IndexMLC MasterKey Super Fundamentals Global REIT Portfolio
(before taking into account fees and tax)
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
LaSalle Investment Management Morgan Stanley Resolution
Exc
ess
Ret
urn
vs
UB
S R
eal E
stat
e In
vest
ors
Tru
st In
dex
(u
nh
edg
ed)
(an
nu
alis
ed f
or
per
iod
s g
reat
er t
han
1 y
ear)
5 Years to Sep-09 3 years to Sep-09 1 Year to Sep-09 Quarter to Sep-09
Global Shares Markets have risen strongly from previous lows
Global Equity Index Sector Returns from 9th March 2009 to 30th Sept 2009
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Source: Bloomberg
MLC’s global shares performance continues to improve…• The performance gap between the MLC strategy and the index continues to
narrow (as illustrated in the diagram below).
• The strategy’s emerging markets exposure continues to benefit returns as emerging markets have outperformed developed markets.
• Manager performances were mixed but in line with expectations (considering the market environment).
Rolling Performance in Excess of the IndexMLC MasterKey Super Fundamentals Global Share Portfolio
(before taking into account fees and tax)
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
De
c-9
0
Jun
-9
1
De
c-91
Jun
-9
2
De
c-92
Ju
n-9
3
Dec-9
3
Ju
n-9
4
De
c-9
4
Ju
n-9
5
De
c-9
5
Ju
n-9
6
De
c-9
6
Ju
n-9
7
De
c-9
7
Ju
n-9
8
De
c-9
8
Ju
n-9
9
De
c-9
9
Ju
n-0
0
De
c-00
Ju
n-0
1
De
c-01
Ju
n-0
2
Dec-0
2
Ju
n-0
3
Dec-0
3
Ju
n-0
4
De
c-0
4
Ju
n-0
5
De
c-0
5
Ju
n-0
6
De
c-0
6
Ju
n-0
7
De
c-0
7
Ju
n-0
8
De
c-0
8
Ju
n-0
9
De
c-0
9
An
nu
alis
ed
E
xc
es
s R
etu
rn
(M
SC
I A
ll C
ou
ntry
W
orld
In
de
x)
1 Year 3 Years 5 Years
An alternative approach to accessing emerging markets – developed market companies trading with emerging markets
Company Country of listing Key EM featureTheme
Consumption growth
Switzerland (Developed)
EMs achieved organic sales growth of 15.4% in 2008 and represents about 35% in volume (CHF 35 billion).
Communications & media
Financial services
Health care
South Africa (EM)
USA (Developed)
Multinational electronic media company with 70% of revenue from South Africa.
UK (Developed) 90% of profit from Asia, Africa and Middle East.
China's largest medical equipment manufacturer with a home customer base.
Source: Company Specific Reports
MLC global shares manager returns
• The recent rally has produced divergent results for the year to 30 September, which is not unexpected within such a broadly diversified manager panel.
• Walter Scott’s impressive return is due to ownership of quality, financially sound companies (though this detracted from returns in the quarter when riskier stocks did better).
• Newly appointed managers performed as expected in the last six months, with Sands the strongest (+34% return since appointment in February ’09 versus +2% by the index)
Manager Performance in Excess of the IndexMLC MasterKey Super Fundamentals Global Share Portfolio
(before taking into account fees and tax)
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
CapitalInternational
WellingtonManagement
Walter Scott HardingLoevner
Sands Capital Mondrian Tweedy,Browne
Dimensional
Ex
ce
ss
Re
turn
vs
MS
CI
All
Co
un
try
Wo
rld
In
de
x
(an
nu
alised
fo
r p
erio
ds g
reate
r t
han
1 y
ear)
5 Years to Sep-09 3 years to Sep-09 1 Year to Sep-09 Quarter to Sep-09
MLC’s Global Private Assets strategy: accessing the world’s best managers and opportunities
• MLC’s Private Assets strategy is intentionally global, spanning many countries and private asset categories (left diagram).
• MLC currently has 46 managers who are invested in over 2,000 companies
• The capital-constrained market of the last 1-2 years has provided MLC with attractive opportunities to invest (below diagram).
USA Buy-Out, 19%
USA Growth, 3%
USA Venture Capital,
19%
USA Distressed, 4%
USA Other, 1%
Europe Buy-Out, 34%
Europe Growth, 2%
Europe Venture Capital, 4%
Europe Distressed, 2%
Europe Other, 1%
Asia Buy-Out, 3%
Asia Other, 2%
Australia Buy-Out, 6%
Vintage year commitments
46126
174
288
186135
61
240
500 530
320
975
486
0
250
500
750
1000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009YTD
$ A
UD
Ms
Diversified debt• Debt markets have started to normalise• The post-Lehman Brothers sharp rise in yields (and falls in value) of securities with credit risk have been mostly offset in last 6
months• The strategy has underperformed its benchmark by 5.3% over the year, but has been improving in the last 6 months• Prior to the GFC, Diversified Debt usually outperformed cash by a significant margin over 3 year periods
MLC's diversified debt strategy vs MLC's standard cash strategy(before taking into account fees and taxes)
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Jun-
96
Jun-
97
Jun-
98
Jun-
99
Jun-
00
Jun-
01
Jun-
02
Jun-
03
Jun-
04
Jun-
05
Jun-
06
Jun-
07
Jun-
08
Jun-
09
3 y
ea
r e
xce
ss r
etu
rns
Diversified Debt outperforming cash
Diversified Debt underperforming cash
Diversified debt
Contribution to Total Return by Asset ClassMLC MasterKey Super Fundamentals Diversified Debt Portfolio
(before taking into account fees and tax)
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
AustralianNominal Bonds
AustralianInflation Linked
Bonds
Global NominalBonds
Global High YieldDebt
Real ReturnStrategies
Total
Re
turn
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n %
(an
nu
alised
fo
r p
eri
od
s g
reate
r th
an
1 y
ear)
3 years to Sep-09 1 Year to Sep-09 Quarter to Sep-09
Diversified debt – Investing in emerging markets debt
Emerging markets vs investment grade bonds Rolling 1 year index returns comparison
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Dec-
04
Feb-0
5
Apr-
05
Jun-0
5
Aug-0
5
Oct
-05
Dec-
05
Feb-0
6
Apr-
06
Jun-0
6
Aug-0
6
Oct
-06
Dec-
06
Feb-0
7
Apr-
07
Jun-0
7
Aug-0
7
Oct
-07
Dec-
07
Feb-0
8
Apr-
08
Jun-0
8
Aug-0
8
Oct
-08
Dec-
08
Feb-0
9
Apr-
09
Jun-0
9
Aug-0
9
Ro
llin
g 1
ye
ar
retu
rn (
% p
.a.)
Global emerging markets debt $A hedgedGlobal investment grade bonds (all maturities) $A hedged
Data source: Global emerging markets debt index: JP Morgan EMBI+ AUD Hedged; Global investment grade bonds index: Barclays Global Agg ex JPY 100% Hedged
Cash Fund• Cash has preserved your capital in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. • Cash rates are now extremely low by historical standards. • The RBA has started the increasing phase of the interest rate cycle.
MLC MasterKey Super Cash Fund historical returns(before taking into account fees and taxes)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Dec-9
0
Dec-9
1
Dec-9
2
Dec-9
3
Dec-9
4
Dec-9
5
Dec-9
6
Dec-9
7
Dec-9
8
Dec-9
9
Dec-0
0
Dec-0
1
Dec-0
2
Dec-0
3
Dec-0
4
Dec-0
5
Dec-0
6
Dec-0
7
Dec-0
8
1 y
ea
r re
turn
s
Cash Fund
Rolling Performance in Excess of the IndexMLC MasterKey Super Fundamentals Cash Portfolio
(before taking into account fees and tax)
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
De
c-9
0
Jun
-91
De
c-9
1
Jun
-92
De
c-9
2
Jun
-93
De
c-9
3
Jun
-94
De
c-9
4
Jun
-95
De
c-9
5
Jun
-96
De
c-9
6
Jun
-97
De
c-9
7
Jun
-98
De
c-9
8
Jun
-99
De
c-9
9
Jun
-00
De
c-0
0
Jun
-01
De
c-0
1
Jun
-02
De
c-0
2
Jun
-03
De
c-0
3
Jun
-04
De
c-0
4
Jun
-05
De
c-0
5
Jun
-06
De
c-0
6
Jun
-07
De
c-0
7
Jun
-08
De
c-0
8
Jun
-09
De
c-0
9
Ex
ce
ss
Re
turn
Ab
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BS
Ba
nk
Bill In
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ua
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1 Year 3 Years 5 Years (Enhanced Cash) 1 Year
The Global Outlook
• Worst of the crisis over, but the recession is not.
• Economic recovery is going to be VERY subdued – consumers (especially in the English speaking world) will take time to repair balance sheets, re-build savings
• Australia has been late into this…more bad news to come on employment, trade, investment.
• Prospects for the emerging economies are brighter than they’ve been for many years
• Interest rates likely to stay lower for longer – world’s central banks won’t mind a bit more inflation?
• Investment returns in this recovery are likely to be more modest than we’ve been used to
• How long before memories fade? Longer this time than usual!
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