Mitä ennakointi on ja mitä VTT tekee ennakoinnin alueella? Foresight at VTT
Dr. Johanna Kohl, Senior Scientist, Team LeaderForesight and Socio-Technical Change TeamVTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
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Foresight – what?
Foresight is not forecasting or science Foresight is holistic Foresight is a systematic, participatory,
future intelligence gathering and medium-to-long-term visionbuilding process
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Foresight- why and how?
Anticipation is an unavoidable human trait and an essential feature of planning future activities
Anticipation enables the creation of visions of the future Combining societal, environmental, technological and economic
implications A dynamic shared knowledge creation processes that go repeatedly
through externalisation, combination, internalisation and socialisation phases in a spiral way.
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Taking into account various stakeholders
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Innovation System• economic and industrial development • R&D and innovation outputs • employment • skills and education • welfare & environment • governance of innovation system
Foresight • anticipating technological development• foreseeing changes in society • regulatory development • changes in market demand
Evaluation• impacts• additionality • efficiency• quality• sustainability
Innovation Strategies• assessment of strategic options• prior assessment of impacts • technology assessment
Past Future
Socio-economicDevelopment
InnovationPolicy
StrategicDecision-making
Strategic policy intelligence for managing innovation systems
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Societal Embedding of Innovations
ProducersProgressiveness of service
Wellbeing of personnel ,Production & distribution cost
Adaptability to production system
SocietalQuality
DevelopersTransferabilityBest practice
Development costAdaptability to other healthorganisations’ requirements
Societal actorsSocietal relevance
Conformity to normsExternalities
Adaptability to societal structure
UsersHealth value
UsabilityCost of purchase and use
Adaptability to context of use
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Foresight methodologies
http://forlearn.jrc.es/guide/4_methodology/meth_classification.htm
The shape inside the circle shows how often each method has been used within a set of exercises collected and analyzed by the European Foresight Monitoring Network.
Various applicationsof methods
at VTT in external
and internal projects
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VTT roadmap brings together the future of markets, products and technologies
Technologies
Products, solutions
Markets
Present Short term Medium to long term
VISION
Drivers
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Foresights since late 1990s -- the importance increasingly recognized in 2000s
Trend from technology roadmaps to broader socio-economic and ecological contexts, creating vision and identifying future drivers, markets and products (“demand pull”), required response from S&T(“science push”)
Recent strategy: searching for R&D driven solutions to grand challenges like linking challenges of healthy ageing, climate change and carsity of raw materials.(European Comission, JPIs, etc.)
How? Foresight experts as methodological & process consultants organize internal & external procedures, which are multidisciplinary, scientific, business and other required competences to exercises
Foresights for internal purposes and as foresight services for clients
Foresight at VTT
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VTT Group’s operational model – roles in foresight
VTT Expert Services Oy Expert studies and assessments Certification and approval services Testing, inspection and calibration
VTT International Oy Administration and
development of international service points
VTT Ventures Oy Ownership and
development of spin‐offs
Strategic research Internally financed research Jointly funded research
V T T
Business solutions Customer account management Commercial projects Technology licensing as part ofcommercial projects
(Separation of economic activities)
Research and development Research personnel, resources Project implementation Competence management
Group services Top management Support functions
IP Business IPR sales and licensing IPR portfolio management
Foresight project execution Foresight experts, coordination
Foresight supporting strategic research portfolio
Planning and implementationof corporate strategy utilisingresults of foresight studies Knowledge solutions & BI
Contract projects in foresight
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VTT research on Organisations, Networks and Innovation Systems
Six research teams
Enterprise Network Management
Renewal and Development of Organisations
Organisational Psychology
Innovation and knowledge economy
Innovation policy research
Foresight and socio-technical change
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VTT Foresight and Socio-Technical Change team
Team members:
Toni Ahlqvist, Senior ScientistAnnele Eerola, Principal ScientistMinna Halonen, Research Scientist (on maternity leave Aug 2011 =>)
Sirkku Kivisaari, Senior ScientistJohanna Kohl, Senior Scientist, Team LeaderRaija Koivisto, Research ProfessorAnna Leinonen, Research Scientist (on maternity leave 2011)
Jouko Myllyoja, Research ScientistNina Wessberg, Senior ScientistMikko Dufva, PhD student (starting Jan 2012)
Contact also: Torsti Loikkanen, Research Co-ordinator and Ville Valovirta, Key Account Manager
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National-level cooperation (examples) Finnsight 2015, incl. VTT panel members. Tekes and the Academy of Finland, 2005-2006 SITRA's foresight network, incl. VTT reseachers 2005-2006 TrendWiki working group of the Ministry of Economy and Employment, 2010=> Open Wave, Tekes/Finnish Boat Industry (2010-2012), Strategy support for EIT ICT Labs Finnish node, Tekes 2011
Nordic-level cooperation (examples) Nordic Hydrogen Energy Foresight, VTT as a core partner. NICe & NER, 2003-2005 Nordic ICT Foresight, VTT as coordinator. NICe, 2005-2007 Nordic Biomedical Sensor Foresight, VTT as partner. NICe, 2005-2006 GoReNEST (2008-2009), TOP-NEST (2011 =>), SHHP Innovation Networks (2008-2009),
EU-level cooperation (examples) Nanotechnology roadmapping. EU FP6, 2004-2005 Emerging S&T priorities in public research policies in Europe, US and Japan.
EU Platform Foresight , 2004-2005. ETEPS - BIO4EU. IPTS/European Parliament, 2006 ForSociety ERA-Net, VTT involved in Future Dialogues, 2006-2007 TESTNET – WT & CP future outlooks for European ETV system, 2006-2008 ATEsT. EU FP7, assesment of energy system modelling and transition management tools, 2009-
2012 Research and Innovation Strategies and Investment in Grand Challenges, ERAB, 2011
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VTT carries out various foresights and future oriented exercises…
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…for private & public clients, with different methodological approaches
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VTT’s mission and foresight
VTT creates the prerequisites for society’s sustainable development, employment and wellbeing.
VTT produces research and innovation services that enhance the international competitiveness of companies, society and other customers.
Foresight is embedded and a promotor for a socio‐technical change
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Customer sectors- Biotechnology,
pharmaceutical and food industries
- Electronics- Energy- ICT- Real estate and
construction- Machines and vehicles- Services and logistics- Forest industry- Process industry and
environment
Customer sectors- Biotechnology,
pharmaceutical and food industries
- Electronics- Energy- ICT- Real estate and
construction- Machines and vehicles- Services and logistics- Forest industry- Process industry and
environment
Focus areas of research- Applied materials- Bio- and chemical
processes- Energy- Information and
communication technologies
- Industrial systems management
- Microtechnologies and electronics
- Services and the built environment
- Business research
Focus areas of research- Applied materials- Bio- and chemical
processes- Energy- Information and
communication technologies
- Industrial systems management
- Microtechnologies and electronics
- Services and the built environment
- Business research
VTT’s operations- Research and
Development - Strategic Research- Business Solutions- IP Business- Group Services
VTT’s companies- VTT Expert Services Ltd
(incl. Labtium Ltd, EnasLtd)
- VTT Ventures Ltd- VTT International Ltd- VTT Memsfab Ltd
VTT’s operations- Research and
Development - Strategic Research- Business Solutions- IP Business- Group Services
VTT’s companies- VTT Expert Services Ltd
(incl. Labtium Ltd, EnasLtd)
- VTT Ventures Ltd- VTT International Ltd- VTT Memsfab Ltd
Foresight + technological competenciesAdvantage that others do not have!
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VTT creates business from technology
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