Metrics
Dr. Johnny Snyder
Outline - Metrics
Historical Overview of Metrics Time as a Metric The FS Metric An Example Other Metrics in Computer Information
Systems Conclusion
A Motto -
“What is not measurable make
measurable.”
Galileo Galilei
(1564 – 1642)
The 1950’s
What metrics?
The 1960’s
Leonard Kleinrock writes first paper on packet switching.
First packets sent on ARPANet – 1969.
Note: The system crashed as the g in login was reached!
(Howe, 2004; Zakon, 2004)
The 1970’s
ARPANet protocol established.
Ethernet appeared.
ARPANet users number 2,000.
(Zakon, 2004; Howe, 2004)
The 1980’s
First virus appears.
BITNET appears (e-mail).
Number of hosts breaks 1,000; 10,000; then 100,000.
Archie appears (ftp archiver – Internet index!).
(Zakon, 2004; Howe, 2004)
The 1990’s
WWW appears.
gopher appears (indexing the web).
Number of hosts surpasses 1,000,000.
Shopping appears on the Internet!
(Zakon, 2004; Howe, 2004)
The 21st Century
Remember Y2K?
More than 1,000,000,000 indexed pages.
Flash mobs, Internet taxes, spam, speed…
US Census Bureau has 1.5 million page views per day. (Census Bureau, 2004)
Time…
Technology Time to reach 25% penetration (years)
Television 25
Radio 27
Telephone 35
Personal Computers 16
Cell Phones 13
World Wide Web 7
(Baase, 2003)
Time (1)
Recall that:
for humans.
1dt
da
Time - human
I.e. in one year, we
will all be one year
older!
Time (2)
Also, recall that
for cats.
7dt
da
Time - Cats
…so in one year our cats
will be seven years older!
note: 18 h.y. = 126 c.y.
Time (3)
But,
for computers.
25dt
da
Time - computers
Next year my
computer will be 100
years old!
Time (4)
For the Internet,
because it is movingfast…
)( tfdt
da
Which metric measures the Internet? Speed: powers of 10 (by threes)
Host growth: exponential
Number of pages: exponential
Number of possible paths: factorial
Lord Kelvin (1824 – 1907):
“When you can measure what you are
speaking about, and express it in
numbers, you know something about it…”
The FS Metric
As the 21st century evolves, new metrics will have to be developed, explored and tested for validity.
Many web sites and software tools appeal to the individualistic side of our personalities (as well as cultural and societal norms).
Feng Shui
A study of how energies in our
environment affect the way we live and
work in this area (the web) at this time.
Fang Shooy
A study of how energies in our
environment, when left unchecked, can
disrupt how we live and work in this
environment (the web) at this time.
Fang Shooy
Feng Shui
Fang Shooy
Feng Shui
What does this prove?
Well…
Nothing.
What does this illustrate?
That individual perceptions are hard to
quantify and thus measure.
How do we prove conjectures?
With theorems How do we prove theorems?
With more theorems!
Postulates
Axioms
Remember Euclid? (~300 BC)
Formulated axiomatic system for geometry.
Stood for more than 2,000 years as the model for organized thinking.
Axioms are “self-evident truths.”
(Burton, 2003)
What are Internet axioms?
Words in all uppercase letters are offensive.
Back buttons are necessary.
Pop-ups are annoying.
Speed is good.
Clutter is bad.
Definitions
How do you “define” a metric for
something like a search engine for
cyberspace?
Definitions (2)
Question: What is the fundamental
purpose of a search engine?
Answer: To search the web.
Definitions (3)
First we need a scale.
How about 1 to 10?
How about 0 to 100?
How about -3 to 3 with zero being neutral?
Definitions (4)
Lets select 0 to 100 with 0 being bad and
100 being good. Further, lets assume that
we begin at 100 and subtract points as
“errors” are encountered. (axioms violated)
* = Subject to individual interpretation
Definitions (5)
Pluses Order*
Calm*
Open*
Passive Colors*
Home Page No Pop-Ups Fast Loading No Horizontal Scrolling
Minuses Chaos*
Busy*
Cluttered*
Active Colors*
Splash Page Pop-Ups Slow Loading Horizontal Scrolling
Example: Search Engines
Evaluate the major search engines using the following point structure:
pop-ups - 10 horizontal scrolling - 8 scrolling text - 5 poor colors - 5 flashing animations - 5 information overload - 5 vertical scrolling - 3
Search Engine Rating Scale
0 50 100
Alta Vista
Dogpile
Hogsearch
Lycos
Yahoo
Excite
Netscape
Feng Shui
Fang Shooy
Qualitative to Quantitative
Qualitative Measure
Quantitative Measure
Metrics in Systems Analysis and Design Gantt Charts and PERT Charts Diagramming Usability Testing
Level 0 DFD
Results/TheoremsData/Axioms
The System!
Metrics in E-Commerce
Click Through Rate (ad click) Clickstream Data Hit Rate Knowledge Curve Shopping Cart Abandonment Rate Throughput
Metrics in Human Computer Interaction Geert Hofstede and
dimensions of culture
Fitt’s Law
Hick’s Law
2
1log2 S
DAT
HkT
nH
1log2
Metrics in HCI (2)
Meyer’s Law
Power Law of Practice
W
DBAT
an nTT 1
New Metrics (needed)
e-waste e-pollution e-warfare e-learning e-voting e-taxes e~2.71828…
Conclusions
Metrics permeate, somehow, most fields of study.
CIS is a field where old metrics can be analyzed and applied.
CIS is a field where new metrics can be formulated, tested and applied.
That makes CIS interesting and entertaining!
Conclusions (2)
That is a bit about me and some of the ideas
that I am interested in.
Thanks again for coming!
Questions?
References
Baase, S. (2003). A Gift of Fire. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall
Burton, D. (2003). The History of Mathematics: An Introduction. New York: McGraw-Hill
Census Bureau, (2004). Retrieved December 1, 2004 from: http://www.census.gov/webdecade
References (2)
Hofstede, G. (1997). Cultures and Organizations: Software of the Mind. New York: McGraw-Hill
Howe, W. (2004). A Brief History of the Internet. Retrieved November 30, 2004 from: http://www.walthowe.com/navnet/history.html
Zakon, R. (2004). Hobbes’ Internet Timeline v7.0. Retrieved November 30, 2004 from: http://www.zakon.org/robert/internet/timeline
Top Five Metric (Grand Junction)
Search Engine Google Dogpile
5 Museum of W. Colorado
Hotels
4 National Weather Service
Quality Inn
3 Chamber of Commerce
Real Estate
2 City of Grand Junction Hotels (HotelsByCity)
1 Visitor Bureau Hotels (Expedia)
Top Five Metric (Mesa State College)
Search Engine Google Dogpile
5 Study USA www.10000scholarship.com
4 US University Resource
college.us.com
3 Mesa State’s Homepage no longer
resides…
Mesa State’s Homepage no longer
resides…
2 Mesa State Athletics Mesa State Athletics
1 Mesa State Homepage Mesa State Homepage
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