Download - MARKET BRIEF: EARTH OBSERVATION...Feb 10, 2020 · SILICON VALLEY 2020 MARKET BRIEF: EARTH OBSERVATION Adam Keith. SMALLSAT SYMPOSIUM, SILICON VALLEY 2020 ... FREE DATA POLICY TO

SMALLSAT SYMPOSIUM,

SILICON VALLEY 2020

MARKET BRIEF:EARTH OBSERVATION

Adam Keith

SMALLSAT SYMPOSIUM, SILICON VALLEY 2020© Euroconsult 2020

2

WHO WE ARE?

THEMATIC

TRAINING

EXECUTIVE

SUMMITS

THEMATIC

RESEARCH

PRODUCTS

TAILORED

CONSULTING

SERVICES

Corporate strategy

Government programs

Due diligence

Feasibility studies

RFI/RFP process

Program monitoring

Support to operatins

600 clients

in 50 countries,

7 global locations


3

MAJOR SHIFT IN EO SATELLITE MANUFACTURING*

2009-2018 2019-2028

~$25B

~$110M

~$69B

~$49M

~>227 ~1402

<49% ~71%

*FOCUS ON COMMERCIAL SATELLITES >50KG (NON-METEO)

Satellites

Manufacturing

Revenue

Average

Satellite Cost

of the satellites

in<$50M price range


4

THE CURRENT COMMERCIAL EO REALITY

CONSOLIDATED

COMMERCIAL DATA

MARKET

FRAGMENTED

SERVICES/

INFORMATION MARKET

COMBINED

MAXAR & AIRBUS

67%

2018

$1.5B

OTHER

COMMERCIAL DATA

(~12 operators)

33%

2018

$3.4B

COMBINED MAXAR &

AIRBUS 18%

OTHER

OPERATORS

2%

OTHER VAS

COMPANIES

(>1000 companies)

(80%)

Disaster Mgt. 1%

TOTAL

$1.5B

Infrastructure

10%

Natural

Resources 7%

Energy 4%

Environment 2%LBS

7%

Defense

65%

LBS

5%

TOTAL

$3.4B

Environment

22%

Natural Resources

16%

Energy 7%

Maritime 1%

Disaster Mgt. 4%

Defense

19%

Infrastructure

26%

Finance 1%

Maritime 4%


5

SMALLSAT SUPPLY EXPANSION

of which ~3,500

in other constellations

Of which 1,500 in Single satellite missions

1,500 SATELLITES 8,500 SATELLITES# of

of which ~3,500

in 3 mega-constellations

ALL SMALLSATS & OPERATORS

Telecom49%

EARTH OBSERVATION

19%

Information15%

Technology14%

Security1%

Science1%

Exploration1%

2019-2028

8,500

SIMILAR OBJECTIVE FOR ALL EO OPERATORS: LOW-COST, HIGH

FREQUENCY DATA COLLECTION TO SUPPORT CHANGE DETECTION ANALYTICS

AND INFORMATION DELIVERY

~1,600 units


6

NOT JUST MORE DATA – BUT DIFFERENT RESOURCES

* For agile systems it refers to <30°ONA, for SSO orbit it refers to around 40°Lat

** Non exhaustive. Including estimates by Euroconsult on system performance

“Any” vs. “Every”

daily revisit point

250

10

150

Daily collection ( M. km²)

Revisit (days)*

Resolution (m)

Future capacity

Current capacity

4

3

2

1

0

0 1 2 3 4

Agile and

taskable syst.

Different orbital

planes

Non taskable or agile

➢ Constellations as the future

standard

➢ “Daily” revisit: any vs. every point

➢ Swath vs resolution

➢ Taskable vs. automatic acquisition

➢ On-demand vs. subscription


7

FREE DATA POLICY TO SUPPORT SERVICES DEVELOPMENT

FREE DATA DAILY COLLECTION CAPACITY

(OPTICAL, MILLION KM2)

FREE DATA YEARLY CONSUMPTION -

DOWNLOADS (PB est.)

0

20

40

60

80

100

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Sentinel-2b Sentinel-2aLandsat-8 Landsat-7

Start of the free-

data policy

57% of the land mass covered daily

for free since late 2017

0

10

20

30

40

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Landsat 1-8

Sentinel 2a/b

Source: Landsat estimate based on acquired/downloaded scenes and typical scene data size, Copernicus reporting


8

CHANGING MARKET FOR EARTH OBSERVATION SOLUTIONS

U.S. DoD (NGA, NRO)

Civil institutions

Other

users

Other DoDs

SCHEMATIC EO VAS ANNUAL PROCUREMENT

> $100M

$10-100M

$1-10M

$100K-1M

< $100K

NUMBER OF USERS

~2

~10

~10

~100

>100,000

Top 10-20 non-U.S. DoDs

B2G

B2B

TOWARDS EO MASS MARKETS

Large industry

users

VAS UPSIDE MARKET 2028

2028:

$9.7BNDefense

(27%)

Energy (7%)

Nat. res.

(10%)

Infras.

(18%)

Dis. management (7%)Env. mon.

(7%)

Maritime

(4%)

LBS

(9%)

Finance

(11%)

• Services emerging based on low-cost supply: more limited ARPU, but

greater mass market

• Services based on change detection analytics which businesses may

subscribe: price points measured in the $K as opposed to $M

Shifting EO from a mostly B2G business to more B2B.


9

INCREASING SERVICES INTEGRATION

ProductProduct

Application

LEVEL OF SERVICES INTEGRATION

[SaaS]

User can access

software applications

through a web-based

interface to access

information.

Product

Application

Data

Infrastructure

Virtualisation

[PaaS]

Vendors provide data and

sometimes API in an

environment where

developers can create

new applications.

Infrastructure

Virtualisation

Data

[DaaS]Vendors give easy

access to proprietary and

3rd party data with

analytics tools.

Application

Data

Infrastructure

Virtualisation

[IaaS]Users outsource data

storage, network and OS

management, by buying

resources rather than server,

data center, calculator etc.

Product

Application

Data

Infrastructure

Virtualisation

Software as a ServiceData as a ServicePlatform as a ServiceInfrastructure

As a Service


$85 million

10

INVESTMENT INTO NEW EARTH OBSERVATION OPERATORS

The last highest fundraising events in the last

year: Hyperspectral & SAR constellations

$86 million

$196 million

$384 million

$80 million

$16.7 million

$65 million

$50 million

$182 million

Recently raised

$168 million in

Series D

financing

Recently raised

$52 million from

strategic partners

Recently raised

$10 million

from Business

Finland

Raised $27

million in Series

B financing in

2017

Recently raised

$150 million in

Series C

financing

Recently raised

$19 million in

Series B

financing

Recently raised $5

million in their last

funding round out

of six

Recently raised

a total of $85

million over one

round

Raised $16.7

million over 2

rounds in 2017

$24 million

$100 million


11

GEOGRAPHICAL DENSITY OF EO ANTENNAS TO INCREASE

Density of antennas

High

Low

11

POTENTIAL GROWTH

• Mid-latitudes to decrease latency

• Interest for maritime applications

• Close to South Pole with easy access

POLES

• Maximize number of passes

• Strategic position for data relay in LEO satellites context

LOW-COVERED REGION

• Interest to monitor resources

EO Ground Segment Market:

• Currently estimated at ~$40M

• Expected 5y CAGR ~7.5%

New trends:

• New frequencies: Ka-band/Optical link

• New commercial sites to increase

• New ground segment service providers


12

TAKEAWAYS

01 02 03

05042020-2022 as

game changing

time period

New service

definition &

monetization still

early stage

Growing

government &

free data supply

Further

ecosystem

transformation

ahead

Still need

success

stories, exits?

France · USA · Canada · Japan · Singapore

Շնորհակալություն

Danke

спасибо

MerciДякую

Thank you

Muchas Gracias

شكرا谢谢

ありがとうございました

[email protected]