2 March 11, 2011 RPG Meeting
Lower Rio Grande Valley interface
RIOHND 6
EDNBRG 6
LAPALM 6
R A C H A L 4
E D N B R G 4
A R M S T N G 4
R A Y V I L E 4
R I O H N D 4
R A Y M O N D V L T P 8
Z A P A T A 4
M E C L O P N 4
F A L C O N 4
R O M A T P 4
R O M A 4
G A R Z A 4
B A T E S 4
P A L M V W 4
F R O N T
E R A Y M N D V L S B 8
L A S A R A S U B 8
M V G N # 3
M V G N # 1
M V G N # 2
L A P A L M 4
H A I N E D R 4
L O M A A L T A
M I L . H W Y 4
P . I S A B L 4
R N G R V I L L E S B 8
H A R L I N S W
C A R B - V L 4
T I T A N
C A U S W A Y 4
S . P A D R E 4
L A P A L M 2
W E S M E R 4
H A R L I N S W
H I W A Y 5 1 1 S U B 8
W E S U N T 4
L A S M I L P A S S B 8
C O F E P R T 4C N T R L A V E S U B 8
E R I O H O N D O S B 8
S M C A L N 4
W M C A L N 4
H . A C R E S 4
N M C A L N 4
S H L N D 4
P O L K 4
M C C O L L 4
P H A R R 4
P H A R R S U B 8
P A L M H U R S T S B 8
A L B E R T A R D S B 8
S E E D N B 4
H E C 4
W E D I N B U R G S B 8
V A L V E R D E S U B 8
D O E D Y N S U B 8
W E S L C S W 4
H E C B 4
A D E R H O L D S U B 8
A L T O N S U B 8
E L S A 4
G A N D Y S U B 8
W E S L A C O S U B 8
H E I D L B R G S U B 8
B U R N S S U B 8
B A T E S 2
G A R Z A 2
F R T T S 0 0 1
F R T T S 1 0 1F R T T S 2 0 1
L A P A L S T R
R A Y V I L E 2
C O N T I N L 2
R G C T Y 2
R I O R I C O 2
R N G R V L E 2
F A Y S V I L L E S B 9
M C C O O K N O 1 S B 9M C C O O K N O 2 S B 9
R A Y V L 1 - 2
H G N - 1 2
W H G N 2
H A R R I S N 2
S B E N I T O 2
P W R P L T 6 9
B R W N S W 2
B R W N C Y 2
LHEDM
LHEDL
LHRHM
LHRHL
M I L H D U M
YTURRIASUB8
S L U T A L R 4
8383
8318
8317
8 8 9 6
8 3 8 0
8 8 9 9
8 3 0 2
8 3 1 9
8 7 9 0
8 2 9 9
8 9 5 7
8 3 9 5
8 7 9 5
8 7 9 6
8 3 9 9
8 3 9 2
8 3 8 7
8 9 8 0
8 7 0 5
8 7 0 4
8 9 7 1
8 9 6 98 9 7 0
8 3 1 4
5 9 6 2
8 3 3 9
8 3 3 8
8 7 4 7
8 3 3 7
5 9 6 3
8 7 4 4
8 3 3 5
8 3 1 0
8 3 4 7
8 3 2 5
8 7 6 7
8 3 4 8
8 7 5 8
8 9 1 4
8 7 6 6
8 7 6 4
8 3 7 1
8 3 6 7
8 7 6 0
8 3 6 8
8 3 9 1
8 3 7 3
8 9 0 8
8 3 7 2
8 7 6 2
8 7 7 4
8 7 5 9
8 3 7 4
8 9 6 3
8 7 7 1
8 7 6 9
8 7 5 3
8 3 5 4
8 3 5 6
8 7 5 4
8 7 7 28 3 6 0
8 7 5 5
8 7 6 8
8 7 6 5
8 3 9 0
8 3 9 7
8 3 0 0
8 7 9 9
8 7 5 1
8 7 4 8
8 7 8 6
8 7 8 38 7 8 5
8 7 0 0
8 3 2 1
8 3 2 0
8 7 1 0
5 9 3 0
8901
8905
8903
8902
5 9 6 4
8 7 0 2
8 8 2 1
M E R E T T S U B 8
8 7 5 2
P A L O A L T O
5 9 6 5
RIOHNSTR
M V G N # 1
M V G N # 2 M V G N # 3
E D N B R S T R8 3 8 4
E D 1 T E R T8 3 4 1
L P 3 T E R T
8 3 2 8
M I L H W Y S8 0 0 0 3
S L U B E N T 4
8 8 2 2
M I S S I O N
8 0 1 2 1
B A T # 1
B A T # 2
F A L C O N H Y D R O 2
F A L C O N H Y D R O 3 F A L C O N H Y D R O 1
F G N T S 2 0 1F G N T S 1 0 1
F G N T S 0 0 1
H E C N 1
H E C N 2H E C N 3
R H 1 T E R T
S U N C H S E 4
8 9 1 7
8 3 5 9
S S . R O S A
R I O H N S T R
A I R P O R T5 9 4 6 0
F I L T E R _ P
5 9 4 2 0
P R I C E _ R D
5 9 4 1 0
F M _ 8 0 2
5 9 4 0 0M I D T O W N
5 9 4 9 0
F A L C O N S S
G A R C E N 4
8 9 2 3
H I L I N E S U B 8
8 7 7 8
P L M H S T T 2
K E Y S S 4
P A L M H S T 4
A L A M O
M O O R E F
P L M H S T T 1
N _ M E R C E D
G O O D W I N 4
L A G R U L A 4
R H 2 T E R T
C I T R U S C Y
R G C T Y 4
S L U R R 4
8 3 2 7
8 3 2 2
8 3 2 3
L A U R E L E S S U B 8
N W E S L A C O
P W R P L A N T
8 7 6 3
M H S T C O M
E D N B R G 2
Z A P A T A
8 3 3 1
8 3 3 2
8 9 0 6
S T E W A R T 4
8 9 5 1
S T E W A R T 2
8 9 4 9
8 0 1 1 7
8 0 1 2 3
8 7 7 3
8 0 1 0 7
8 0 1 0 8
8 0 1 1 8
8 3 7 7
S I X T H _ S T
5 9 4 8 0
5 9 3 0 0
8 3 5 7
8 3 5 8
8 0 1 5 5
H I D A L G O 4
8 5 0 0 6
S O U T H _ P L5 9 5 0 0
5 9 4 6
A I R P O R T 6 9
W A T E R P R T
5 9 4 5 0
L O M A _ 6 9
5 9 4 3
U N I O N _ C A
5 9 4 4
0 . 0 M v a r
- 4 0 M v a r
ZAPATA
JIM HOGGBROOKS KENEDY
STARR
HIDALGO
WILLACY
CAMERON
1
5
2
34
8336
8326
8329
80148
AJ O7A
80076
ZORI LLO7A
80071
SARI TA7A80171
PENASCAL7A
80178
GULFWI ND7A
80078
Valley Interface
1. North Edinburg - Lon Hill 345 kV 2. Ajo – Rio Hondo 345 kV3. Raymond 2 – MV Yutt 138 kV4. North Edinburg - Rachal 138 kV5. Roma Switch – Falcon Switch 138 kV
3 March 11, 2011 RPG Meeting
Existing LRGV System
• The AEP-TCC, Sharyland Utilities, Magic Valley Electric Cooperative (MVEC) and Public Utilities Board of Brownsville (PUB) transmission system currently serve approximately 2,200 MW of summer peak demand in the LRGV area.
• There are three combined-cycle generating stations in the LRGV with a combined capability of 1,592 MW.
• Additionally PUB has 4 units totaling approximately 120 MW on the eastern side of the LRGV.
4 March 11, 2011 RPG Meeting
LRGV System Load Growth
• The McAllen-Edinburg-Mission and Brownsville-Harlingen-San Benito areas are has grown significantly in the past few years (15 year average annual MW growth, based on the summer peaks is ~ 63 MW* or ~ 4.3%*).
• Extremely cold weather can result in a winter peak demand to significantly exceed the forecast and the summer peak levels.
• Extreme cold weather on February 3, 2011 has set an all-time new record peak of approximately 2,734 MW.
• Historical data (by AEP) indicates that in the past 15 years the winter peak demand has exceeded the summer peak four times (1997, 2007, 2010 & 2011)
* excluding PUB area
6 March 11, 2011 RPG Meeting
Actual Summer and Winter Peak for LRGV since 2007
2,162
1,9021,826
2,378
2,734*
2,056 2,0952,185 2,241
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2,750
3,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Winter Peak MW
Summer Peak MW
*Estimate of PUB Silas Ray generation is included.
7 March 11, 2011 RPG Meeting
LRGV Winter Peak & Temperature correlation
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
Dai
ly P
eak
(MW
)
Daily Minimum Temperature (Degrees)
Valley - Winter Daily Peak & Temperature(no weekends or holidays)
2010 Winter
2011 Winter
9 March 11, 2011 RPG Meeting
SSWG Planning Case - LRGV Area Summary
Valley Area Load (MW)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Winter Peak – 2010/2011 SSWG
model 1806 1733
Summer Peak - 2010 5YTP model 2214 2295 2353 2426 2495
Units
Summer Peak Max. Capacity
(MW)
Winter Peak Max. Capacity
(MW)
Frontera 1 146.5 154.2
Frontera 2 147.9 150
Frontera 3 173 170
Hidalgo 1 144 167
Hidalgo 2 144 164
Hidalgo 3 171 171
Magic Valley 1 207 250
Magic Valley 2 216.7 245
Magic Valley 3 242 259
Silas Ray 10 47 46
Silas Ray 5 15 17
Silas Ray 6 19.3 17
Silas Ray 9 38 45.7
Total Capacity 1711 1810
10 March 11, 2011 RPG Meeting
LRGV Power Flow Analysis
• The power flow analysis indicates the limiting contingency is the loss of a 345 kV transmission line, with the largest LRGV generation station out of service (all units @ combined cycle facility).
• The above NERC category C contingency falls with in the ERCOT planning criteria section 5.1.4 “In the case of a Combined Cycle Facility, a “single generating unit” experiencing a forced outage shall be defined as the entire train unless the combustion turbine and the steam turbine can operate separately”.
• Based on the 5YTP models the worst contingency results in the overload of the remaining 345 kV transmission line in 2014 summer peak condition at load level of 2,426 MW.
11 March 11, 2011 RPG Meeting
2015 Summer Peak Power Flow : Base Case
RIOHND 6
EDNBRG 6
LAPALM 6
R A C H A L 4
E D N B R G 4
ARMSTNG4
R A Y V I L E 4
R I O H N D 4
R A Y M O N D V L T P 8
R A N D A D O 4
M E C L O P N 4
F A L C O N 4
R O M A T P 4
R O M A 4
G A R Z A 4
B A T E S 4
P A L M V W 4
F R O N T
E R A Y M N D V L S B 8
L A S A R A S U B 8
M V G N # 3
M V G N # 1
M V G N # 2
L A P A L M 4
H A I N E D R 4
L O M A A L T A
M I L . H W Y 4
P . I S A B L 4
R N G R V I L L E S B 8
H A R L I N S W
C A R B - V L 4
T I T A N
C A U S W A Y 4
S . P A D R E 4
L A P A L M 2
W E S M E R 4
H A R L I N S W
H I W A Y 5 1 1 S U B 8
W E S U N T 4
L A S M I L P A S S B 8
C O F E P R T 4
C N T R L A V E S U B 8
E R I O H O N D O S B 8
S M C A L N 4
W M C A L N 4
H . A C R E S 4
N M C A L N 4
S H L N D 4
P O L K 4
M C C O L L 4
P H A R R 4
P H A R R S U B 8
P A L M H U R S T S B 8
A L B E R T A R D S B 8
S E E D N B 4
H E C 4
W E D I N B U R G S B 8
V A L V E R D E S U B 8
D O E D Y N S U B 8
W E S L C S W 4
H E C B 4
A D E R H O L D S U B 8
A L T O N S U B 8
E L S A 4
G A N D Y S U B 8
W E S L A C O S U B 8
H E I D L B R G S U B 8
B U R N S S U B 8
B A T E S 2
G A R Z A 2
F R T T S 0 0 1
F R T T S 1 0 1 F R T T S 2 0 1
L A P A L S T R
R A Y V I L E 2
C O N T I N L 2
R G C T Y 2
R I O R I C O 2
R N G R V L E 2
F A Y S V I L L E S B 9
M C C O O K N O 1 S B 9M C C O O K N O 2 S B 9
R A Y V L 1 - 2
H G N - 1 2
W H G N 2
H A R R I S N 2
S B E N I T O 2
P W R P L T 6 9
B R W N S W 2
B R W N C Y 2
LHEDM
LHEDL
LHRHM
LHRHL
YTURRIASUB8
S L U T A L R 4
8383
8318
8317
8 8 9 6
8 3 8 0
8899
8 3 0 2
8 3 1 9
8 7 9 0
8 6 9 9
8 9 5 7
8 3 9 5
8 7 9 5
8 7 9 6
8 3 9 9
8 3 9 2
8 3 8 7
8 9 8 0
8 7 0 5
8 7 0 4
8 9 7 1
8 9 6 98 9 7 0
8 3 1 4
5 9 6 2
8 3 3 9
8 3 3 8
8 7 4 7
8 3 3 7
5 9 6 3
8 7 4 4
8 3 3 5
8 3 1 0
8 3 4 7
8 3 2 5
8 7 6 7
8 3 4 8
8 7 5 8
8 9 1 4
8 7 6 6
8 7 6 4
8 3 7 1
8 3 6 7
8 7 6 0
8 3 6 8
8 3 9 1
8 3 7 3
8 9 0 8
8 3 7 2
8 7 6 2
8 7 7 4
8 7 5 9
8 3 7 4
8 9 6 3
8 7 7 1
8 7 6 9
8 7 5 3
8 3 5 4
8 3 5 6
8 7 5 4
8 7 7 28 3 6 0
8 7 5 5
8 7 6 8
8 7 6 5
8 3 9 0
8 3 9 7
8 3 0 0
8 7 9 9
8 7 5 1
8 7 4 8
8 7 8 6
8 7 8 38 7 8 5
8 7 0 0
8 3 2 1
8 3 2 0
8 7 1 0
5 9 3 0
8901
8905
8903
8902
8702
8 8 2 1
M E R E T T S U B 8
8 7 5 2
P A L O A L T O
5 9 6 5
RIOHNSTR
M V G N # 1
M V G N # 2M V G N # 3
E D N B R S T R
8 3 8 4
E D 1 T E R T8 3 4 1
L P 3 T E R T8 3 2 8
M I L H W Y S8 0 0 0 3
S L U B E N T 4
8 8 2 2
M I S S I O N
8 0 1 2 1
B A T # 1
B A T # 2
F A L C O N H Y D R O 2
F A L C O N H Y D R O 3 F A L C O N H Y D R O 1
F G N T S 2 0 1F G N T S 1 0 1
F G N T S 0 0 1
H E C N 1
H E C N 2 H E C N 3
R H 1 T E R T
S U N C H S E 48 9 1 7
8 3 5 9
S S . R O S A
R I O H N S T R
F I L T E R _ P
5 9 4 2 0
P R I C E _ R D5 9 4 1 0
F M _ 8 0 2
5 9 4 0 0M I D T O W N
5 9 4 9 0
F A L C O N S S
G A R C E N 4
8 9 2 3
H I L I N E S U B 8
8 7 7 8
P L M H S T T 2
K E Y S S 4
P A L M H S T 4
A L A M O
M O O R E F
P L M H S T T 1
N _ M E R C E D
G O O D W I N 4
L A G R U L A 4
R H 2 T E R T
C I T R U S C Y
R G C T Y 4
S L U R R 4
8 3 2 7
8 3 2 2
8 3 2 3
L A U R E L E S S U B 8
N W E S L A C O
P W R P L A N T
0 M W
0 M v a r
0 M W 0 M v a r
8 7 6 3
M H S T C O M
E D N B R G 2
0 M W 1 1 1 M v a r
8 3 3 1
8 3 3 2
0 M W 0 M v a r
0 M W 0 M v a r
0 M W 0 M v a r
0 M W 0 M v a r
0 M W
0 M v a r
0 M W
0 M v a r
1 7 2 M W 1 1 3 M v a r
1 4 7 M W 1 0 5 M v a r
1 4 5 M W 1 0 5 M v a r
1 4 3 M W
8 7 M v a r
1 4 3 M W
8 7 M v a r 1 7 0 M W 8 0 M v a r
8 9 0 6
S T E W A R T 4
8 9 5 1
S T E W A R T 2
8 9 4 9
8 0 1 1 7
8 0 1 2 3
8 7 7 3
8 0 1 0 7
8 0 1 0 8
8 0 1 1 8
8 3 7 7
5 9 3 0 0
8 3 5 7
8 3 5 8
8 0 1 5 5
H I D A L G O 4
8 5 0 0 6
W A T E R P R T5 9 4 5 0
L O M A _ 6 9
5 9 4 3
U N I O N _ C A
5 9 4 4
4 . 9 M v a r
4 . 9 M v a r
1 0 . 0 M v a r
0 . 0 M v a r
0 . 0 M v a r
0 . 0 M v a r
0 . 0 M v a r
0 . 0 M v a r
0 . 0 M v a r
- 3 6 M v a r
0 . 0 M v a r
0 M v a r
0 . 0 M v a r
0 . 0 M v a r
0 . 0 M v a r
0 . 0 M v a r
0 . 0 M v a r
0 . 0 M v a r
0 . 0 M v a r
0 . 0 M v a r
0 . 0 M v a r
0 . 0 M v a r
2 3 . 5 M v a r
0 . 0 M v a r
0 . 0 M v a r
0 . 0 M v a r
1 4 . 1 M v a r
0 . 0 M v a r
7 . 1 M v a r
1 3 . 1 M v a r
0 . 0 M v a r
0 . 0 M v a r
7 . 2 M v a r
4 . 6 M v a r
0 . 0 M v a r
5 8 . 4 M v a r
0 . 0 M v a r
9 . 9 M v a r
9 . 8 M v a r
4 . 8 M v a r
9 . 9 M v a r
0 . 0 M v a r
7 . 4 M v a r
6 0 . 1 M v a r
ZAPATA
JIM HOGGBROOKS KENEDY
STARR
HIDALGO
WILLACY
CAMERON
8336
8326
8329
80148
8324
8756
8798
8797
8793
5728
5729 8048
80106
89368937 8938
8981
8824
8388
8393
8998
89348935
8355
21 MW 1 Mvar
4 MW 0 Mvar
16 MW 0 Mvar 35 MW 11 Mvar
25 MW 8 Mvar
AJ O7A
-200. 1 Mvar
80076
ZORI LLO7A
80071
SARI TA7A
80171
PENASCAL7A
80178
PNSCALT11A80180
24. 6 MW 16. 6 Mvar 24. 6 MW 16. 6 Mvar
PNSCALT21A80181
GULFWI ND7A80078
GWI NDT11A80080
21. 0 MW 14. 2 Mvar
19. 8 MW 13. 4 Mvar
18. 6 MW 13. 2 Mvar 9. 0 MW 6. 3 Mvar
GWI NDT21A80081
19. 8 MW 13. 4 Mvar
12. 9 MW 11. 8 Mvar
21. 0 MW 14. 2 Mvar
10. 2 MW 7. 1 Mvar
CAVAZOS4A80229
L. FRES 48333
AZTECA48708
MVFAYSW98782
OLMI TO48950
SI OUXSUB88792
SURRCFE48825
ELGATO4A85005
89838982
OLEANDER2A80023
OLEANDER4A80022
OLEANSTR80025
OLEANDER TER80024
PNSCALT31A
25 MW 17 Mvar 25 MW 17 Mvar 0. 0 Mvar
80182
GCI SNRT21A80087
PNSCALT41A
25 MW 17 Mvar
25 MW 17 Mvar
0. 0 Mvar
PNSCALT51A
25 MW 17 Mvar 25 MW 17 Mvar
0. 0 Mvar
8018480183
81%B
Amps
69%B
Amps
49%B
Amps 69%
B
Amps
12 March 11, 2011 RPG Meeting
2015 Summer Peak Power Flow : Generating Station out of service + 345 kV line
RIOHND 6
EDNBRG 6
LAPALM 6
R A C H A L 4
E D N B R G 4
ARMSTNG4
R A Y V I L E 4
R I O H N D 4
R A Y M O N D V L T P 8
R A N D A D O 4
M E C L O P N 4
F A L C O N 4
R O M A T P 4
R O M A 4
G A R Z A 4
B A T E S 4
P A L M V W 4
F R O N T
E R A Y M N D V L S B 8
L A S A R A S U B 8
M V G N # 3
M V G N # 1
M V G N # 2
L A P A L M 4
H A I N E D R 4
L O M A A L T A
M I L . H W Y 4
P . I S A B L 4
R N G R V I L L E S B 8
H A R L I N S W
C A R B - V L 4
T I T A N
C A U S W A Y 4
S . P A D R E 4
L A P A L M 2
W E S M E R 4
H A R L I N S W
H I W A Y 5 1 1 S U B 8
W E S U N T 4
L A S M I L P A S S B 8
C O F E P R T 4
C N T R L A V E S U B 8
E R I O H O N D O S B 8
S M C A L N 4
W M C A L N 4
H . A C R E S 4
N M C A L N 4
S H L N D 4
P O L K 4
M C C O L L 4
P H A R R 4
P H A R R S U B 8
P A L M H U R S T S B 8
A L B E R T A R D S B 8
S E E D N B 4
H E C 4
W E D I N B U R G S B 8
V A L V E R D E S U B 8
D O E D Y N S U B 8
W E S L C S W 4
H E C B 4
A D E R H O L D S U B 8
A L T O N S U B 8
E L S A 4
G A N D Y S U B 8
W E S L A C O S U B 8
H E I D L B R G S U B 8
B U R N S S U B 8
B A T E S 2
G A R Z A 2
F R T T S 0 0 1
F R T T S 1 0 1 F R T T S 2 0 1
L A P A L S T R
R A Y V I L E 2
C O N T I N L 2
R G C T Y 2
R I O R I C O 2
R N G R V L E 2
F A Y S V I L L E S B 9
M C C O O K N O 1 S B 9M C C O O K N O 2 S B 9
R A Y V L 1 - 2
H G N - 1 2
W H G N 2
H A R R I S N 2
S B E N I T O 2
P W R P L T 6 9
B R W N S W 2
B R W N C Y 2
LHEDM
LHEDL
LHRHM
LHRHL
YTURRIASUB8
S L U T A L R 4
8383
8318
8317
8 8 9 6
8 3 8 0
8899
8 3 0 2
8 3 1 9
8 7 9 0
8 6 9 9
8 9 5 7
8 3 9 5
8 7 9 5
8 7 9 6
8 3 9 9
8 3 9 2
8 3 8 7
8 9 8 0
8 7 0 5
8 7 0 4
8 9 7 1
8 9 6 98 9 7 0
8 3 1 4
5 9 6 2
8 3 3 9
8 3 3 8
8 7 4 7
8 3 3 7
5 9 6 3
8 7 4 4
8 3 3 5
8 3 1 0
8 3 4 7
8 3 2 5
8 7 6 7
8 3 4 8
8 7 5 8
8 9 1 4
8 7 6 6
8 7 6 4
8 3 7 1
8 3 6 7
8 7 6 0
8 3 6 8
8 3 9 1
8 3 7 3
8 9 0 8
8 3 7 2
8 7 6 2
8 7 7 4
8 7 5 9
8 3 7 4
8 9 6 3
8 7 7 1
8 7 6 9
8 7 5 3
8 3 5 4
8 3 5 6
8 7 5 4
8 7 7 28 3 6 0
8 7 5 5
8 7 6 8
8 7 6 5
8 3 9 0
8 3 9 7
8 3 0 0
8 7 9 9
8 7 5 1
8 7 4 8
8 7 8 6
8 7 8 38 7 8 5
8 7 0 0
8 3 2 1
8 3 2 0
8 7 1 0
5 9 3 0
8901
8905
8903
8902
8702
8 8 2 1
M E R E T T S U B 8
8 7 5 2
P A L O A L T O
5 9 6 5
RIOHNSTR
M V G N # 1
M V G N # 2M V G N # 3
E D N B R S T R
8 3 8 4
E D 1 T E R T8 3 4 1
L P 3 T E R T8 3 2 8
M I L H W Y S8 0 0 0 3
S L U B E N T 4
8 8 2 2
M I S S I O N
8 0 1 2 1
B A T # 1
B A T # 2
F A L C O N H Y D R O 2
F A L C O N H Y D R O 3 F A L C O N H Y D R O 1
F G N T S 2 0 1F G N T S 1 0 1
F G N T S 0 0 1
H E C N 1
H E C N 2 H E C N 3
R H 1 T E R T
S U N C H S E 48 9 1 7
8 3 5 9
S S . R O S A
R I O H N S T R
F I L T E R _ P
5 9 4 2 0
P R I C E _ R D5 9 4 1 0
F M _ 8 0 2
5 9 4 0 0M I D T O W N
5 9 4 9 0
F A L C O N S S
G A R C E N 4
8 9 2 3
H I L I N E S U B 8
8 7 7 8
P L M H S T T 2
K E Y S S 4
P A L M H S T 4
A L A M O
M O O R E F
P L M H S T T 1
N _ M E R C E D
G O O D W I N 4
L A G R U L A 4
R H 2 T E R T
C I T R U S C Y
R G C T Y 4
S L U R R 4
8 3 2 7
8 3 2 2
8 3 2 3
L A U R E L E S S U B 8
N W E S L A C O
P W R P L A N T
0 M W
0 M v a r
0 M W 0 M v a r
8 7 6 3
M H S T C O M
E D N B R G 2
0 M W 6 1 M v a r
8 3 3 1
8 3 3 2
0 M W 0 M v a r
0 M W 0 M v a r
0 M W 0 M v a r
0 M W 0 M v a r
0 M W
0 M v a r
0 M W
0 M v a r
1 7 2 M W 1 1 3 M v a r
1 4 7 M W 1 0 5 M v a r
1 4 6 M W 1 0 5 M v a r
1 4 3 M W
8 7 M v a r
1 4 3 M W
8 7 M v a r 1 7 0 M W 8 0 M v a r
8 9 0 6
S T E W A R T 4
8 9 5 1
S T E W A R T 2
8 9 4 9
8 0 1 1 7
8 0 1 2 3
8 7 7 3
8 0 1 0 7
8 0 1 0 8
8 0 1 1 8
8 3 7 7
5 9 3 0 0
8 3 5 7
8 3 5 8
8 0 1 5 5
H I D A L G O 4
8 5 0 0 6
W A T E R P R T5 9 4 5 0
L O M A _ 6 9
5 9 4 3
U N I O N _ C A
5 9 4 4
5 . 0 M v a r
5 . 0 M v a r
1 0 . 0 M v a r
4 . 5 M v a r
1 3 . 0 M v a r
9 8 . 6 M v a r
9 8 . 9 M v a r
1 1 . 6 M v a r
3 . 6 M v a r
- 3 5 M v a r
4 . 8 M v a r
0 M v a r
9 . 8 M v a r
2 9 . 8 M v a r
2 . 3 M v a r
2 . 3 M v a r
3 1 . 0 M v a r
4 . 6 M v a r
1 9 . 6 M v a r
9 . 5 M v a r
5 2 . 3 M v a r
2 . 3 M v a r
2 4 . 0 M v a r
2 . 3 M v a r
0 . 0 M v a r
4 . 5 M v a r
1 4 . 6 M v a r
9 . 6 M v a r
7 . 4 M v a r
1 3 . 8 M v a r
3 2 . 1 M v a r
2 . 6 M v a r
7 . 2 M v a r
4 . 7 M v a r
2 8 . 8 M v a r
6 1 . 1 M v a r
6 3 . 6 M v a r
9 . 9 M v a r
9 . 9 M v a r
4 . 9 M v a r
9 . 9 M v a r
0 . 0 M v a r
7 . 4 M v a r
6 0 . 1 M v a r
ZAPATA
JIM HOGGBROOKS KENEDY
STARR
HIDALGO
WILLACY
CAMERON
8336
8326
8329
80148
8324
8756
8798
8797
8793
5728
5729 8048
80106
89368937 8938
8981
8824
8388
8393
8998
89348935
8355
21 MW 1 Mvar
4 MW 0 Mvar
16 MW 0 Mvar 35 MW 11 Mvar
25 MW 8 Mvar
AJ O7A
-203. 1 Mvar
80076
ZORI LLO7A
80071
SARI TA7A
80171
PENASCAL7A
80178
PNSCALT11A80180
24. 8 MW 10. 3 Mvar 24. 8 MW 10. 3 Mvar
PNSCALT21A80181
GULFWI ND7A80078
GWI NDT11A80080
21. 2 MW 14. 2 Mvar
20. 0 MW 13. 4 Mvar
18. 8 MW 13. 2 Mvar 9. 2 MW 6. 3 Mvar
GWI NDT21A80081
20. 0 MW 13. 4 Mvar
13. 1 MW 11. 8 Mvar
21. 2 MW 14. 2 Mvar
10. 4 MW 7. 1 Mvar
CAVAZOS4A80229
L. FRES 48333
AZTECA48708
MVFAYSW98782
OLMI TO48950
SI OUXSUB88792
SURRCFE48825
ELGATO4A85005
89838982
OLEANDER2A80023
OLEANDER4A80022
OLEANSTR80025
OLEANDER TER80024
PNSCALT31A
25 MW 17 Mvar 25 MW 17 Mvar 0. 0 Mvar
80182
GCI SNRT21A80087
PNSCALT41A
25 MW 17 Mvar
25 MW 17 Mvar
0. 0 Mvar
PNSCALT51A
25 MW 17 Mvar 25 MW 17 Mvar
0. 0 Mvar
8018480183
108%B
Amps
109%B
Amps
13 March 11, 2011 RPG Meeting
LRGV Voltage stability Analysis
• The voltage stability analysis indicates that the NERC Category C contingency limits the import capability to the LRGV.
• Based on the 5YTP model, the voltage stability limit for the LRGV is approximately 2,560 MW.
• The actual steady state voltage limits could be lower than the voltage stability limit.
15 March 11, 2011 RPG Meeting
LRGV Thermal/Voltage stability Summary
• The thermal limits based on the current ERCOT SSWG planning model/criteria will exceed by 2014.
• The voltage stability only exceed the thermal limits by approximately 150 MW.
• The voltage stability limits being so close to the thermal limits indicate that increasing the thermal capacity of the existing LRGV interface would not significantly improve the load serving capacity.
• There is a need for transmission or market solution in the LRGV to meet the forecasted load beyond 2014.
16 March 11, 2011 RPG Meeting
Operational issues affecting the LRGV
• A major operational issue is the difficulty to grant clearances for both transmission and generation maintenance outage in the LRGV.
• There is a limited time windows to grant maintenance outages in the LRGV and any extreme weather during this period could require load shed.
• There is a potential for severe weather (hurricanes) that could affect both the existing 345 kV lines sourced from the Corpus Christi area and significantly reduce the load serving capability in the LRGV.
17 March 11, 2011 RPG Meeting
Historical AEP-TCC Valley Load Data
• Historical AEP-TCC Valley load data presented in the next few slides provide show some evidence of peak windows.
• Based on the McAllen, Texas weather station data back to1960.
18 March 11, 2011 RPG Meeting
Historical AEP-TCC Valley Load
0%
2%
3%
5%
6%
8%
9%
11%
12%
14%
15%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Prob
abili
ty o
f bei
ng th
e An
nual
Pea
k
Perc
enta
ge o
f Ann
ual P
eak
TCC Valley - Historical Peak Days and ProbabilitiesBased on Valley Load Data since 1996
Historical Maximum of Daily Peak as a Percentage of Annual PeakProbability of being the Annual Peak
19 March 11, 2011 RPG Meeting
Historical AEP-TCC Valley Load
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
12.5%
15.0%
17.5%
20.0%
22.5%
25.0%
27.5%
30.0%
32.5%
35.0%
37.5%
40.0%1-
Jan
8-Ja
n15
-Jan
22-J
an29
-Jan
5-Fe
b12
-Feb
19-F
eb26
-Feb
4-M
ar11
-Mar
18-M
ar25
-Mar
1-Ap
r8-
Apr
15-A
pr22
-Apr
29-A
pr6-
May
13-M
ay20
-May
27-M
ay3-
Jun
10-J
un17
-Jun
24-J
un1-
Jul
8-Ju
l15
-Jul
22-J
ul29
-Jul
5-Au
g12
-Aug
19-A
ug26
-Aug
2-Se
p9-
Sep
16-S
ep23
-Sep
30-S
ep7-
Oct
14-O
ct21
-Oct
28-O
ct4-
Nov
11-N
ov18
-Nov
25-N
ov2-
Dec
9-D
ec16
-Dec
23-D
ec30
-Dec
Probabilility of a Peak Inducing TemperatureBased on McAllen, TX Daily Average Temperatures since 1960
20 March 11, 2011 RPG Meeting
Historical AEP-TCC Valley Load
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
19611963196519671969197119731975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005200720092011
McAllen, TX Annual Minimum Daily Average Temperature (1960 to Present)
Only 6 times in the last 51 years hasMcAllen's annual minimum daily average temperature been 32 or
below. It is the first time since 1997.
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