Le régionalisme contribue-t-il au développement économique ?
Olivier CadotPrésentation à Rennes, le 14 mars
2008
1.Le régionalisme : Une brève rétrospective
0
5
10
15
20
25
No
tifi
ca
tio
n
Notified and Active Now Inactive
Accords notifiés à l’OMC
Le plat de spaghettis
Congo, R.D.
Swaziland
Djibouti Sudan Eritrea Ethiopia
Madagascar
Mauritius
Botwana
Lesotho
Mozambique
South Africa
COMESA
SADC
SACURIFF
IOC
Afrique de l’est
Namibia
Angola
Burundi
Zambia
Tanzania
Malawi
ComorosSeychelles
Zimbabwe Kenya
Rwanda
Uganda
IndiaBangladeshNepalBhutanSri LankaMaldives
GeorgiaUkraineMoldova
Russia China
Belarus
IranTurkmenistanAfghanistan
Turkey Azerbaidjan
KazakhstanKirghizistanTadjikistan
Ouzbekistan Pakistan
GUUAM
Central Asian Cooperation Organization
South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation
Shangaï Cooperation Organization
Source: Raballand 2005Note: Countries in bold are WTO members
Le plat de spaghettisAsie centrale
Organization for Economic Cooperation
Eurasian Economic Community
L’UE : Un accord à part1.1 La première vague•Les accords sud-sud de première génération•Tiers-mondisme : des substituts au système multilatéral•Substitution aux importations et autres politiques
-
5'000
10'000
15'000
20'000
25'000
30'000
35'000
40'000
45'000
1962-1970
1970-1980
1980-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
Mill
ions
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
Pour
cent
ag
Valeur des exportations a/
% commerce mondial
Part de la CEDEAO dans le commerce
L’ALENALe MERCOSURLes accords africains
1.2 La deuxième vague
2. Régionalisme et multilatéralisme
2.1 Qu’est-ce que le multilatéralisme ?
Entropie: La première vague de libéralisation et son échec 1820 1875 1913 1925 1931 1950
France R 12–15 20 21 30 18Russia 45–55 0 0 5 n.a. 23Allemagne 8–12 4–6 13 20 21 26A-H R 15–20 18 16 24 18EU 35–45 40–50 44 37 48 14Italie n.a. 8–10 18 22 46 25Russie R 15–20 84 R R RJapon R 5 30 n.a. n.a. n.a.Belgique 6–8 9–10 9 15 14 11Danemark 25–35 15–20 14 10 n.a. 3PB 6–8 3–5 4 6 n.a. 11Espagne R 15–20 41 41 63 n.a.Suède R 3–5 20 16 21 9Suisse 8–12 4–6 9 14 19 n.a.
1846 : Abrogation des Corn Laws en Angleterre
1860 : Traité Cobden-Chevalier. Quarante traités bilatéraux signés par la GB, 25 par la France.
1865 : Victoire du nord dans la guerre de Sécession et retour du protectionnisme aux EU
1879 : Bismark fait passer une loi économique protectionniste au Reichstag avec les voix des conservateurs et du centre
1884 : Tarif Méline et « loi du cadenas »
2.3 Comment le « M » voit le « R »2.3.1 L’article XXIV et la clause d’habilitation
L’article XXIV du GATT
La clause d’habilitation
Case 1: Neither creation nor diversion
Producers A B CDomestic price 15.0 18.0 20.0Duty-paid price in A
With 20% MFN tariff 15.0 21.6 24.0With tariff only on C 15.0 18.0 24.0
Case 2: Trade creation
Producers A B CDomestic price 17.0 15.0 16.0Duty-paid price in A
With 20% MFN tariff 17.0 18.0 19.2With tariff only on C 17.0 15.0 19.2
Case 3: Trade diversion
Producers A B CDomestic price 13.0 11.0 10.0Duty-paid price in A
With 20% MFN tariff 13.0 13.2 12.0With tariff only on C 13.0 11.0 12.0
Case 1: Neither creation nor diversion
Producers A B CDomestic price 15.0 18.0 20.0Duty-paid price in A
With 20% MFN tariff 15.0 21.6 24.0With tariff only on C 15.0 18.0 24.0
Case 2: Trade creation
Producers A B CDomestic price 17.0 15.0 16.0Duty-paid price in A
With 20% MFN tariff 17.0 18.0 19.2With tariff only on C 17.0 15.0 19.2
Case 3: Trade diversion
Producers A B CDomestic price 13.0 11.0 10.0Duty-paid price in A
With 20% MFN tariff 13.0 13.2 12.0With tariff only on C 13.0 11.0 12.0
3. A quoi sert le régionalisme ?3.1 Beaucoup de libre-échange, c’est bien ; mais un peu ?
Country C
Country B
FTAimports
imports
home production competes withimports from B and C
Country A
Country CCountry C
Country BCountry B
FTAimports
imports
home production competes withimports from B and C
Country ACountry A
0
2'000
4'000
6'000
8'000
10'000
12'000
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995
Launch of NAFTA negotiations
NAFTA put intoforce
Amount of FDI intoMexico, million dollars
0
2'000
4'000
6'000
8'000
10'000
12'000
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995
Launch of NAFTA negotiations
NAFTA put intoforce
Amount of FDI intoMexico, million dollars
Le régionalisme Nord-sud: verrouillage des réformes dans le sud
… et convergence? En Europe, oui.
Year Poland Czech Rep. Slovakia Hungary Slovenia Romania Bulgaria Estonia Latvia Lithuania1989 9.02 5.02 5.02 16.34 12.80 4.381992 15.86 10.74 10.74 20.19 12.07 27.44 9.89 0.75 0.49 2.141993 18.56 12.41 13.45 20.25 11.88 29.74 13.61 4.64 2.84 6.581994 18.50 12.52 12.03 17.52 8.98 28.00 11.44 3.86 5.00 10.341995 15.35 10.76 9.28 12.90 6.45 25.45 11.25 6.39 4.91 12.941996 15.76 10.60 10.17 13.16 5.73 29.34 14.72 6.91 5.86 14.771997 11.76 8.48 9.35 10.12 5.16 27.15 13.28 6.23 6.68 16.551998 8.65 5.66 5.61 7.01 4.28 24.33 14.32 8.65 7.09 16.701999 6.97 4.45 5.40 5.74 3.25 23.44 14.68 12.73 6.93 14.452000 4.90 3.50 4.43 4.36 2.57 15.95 13.09 2.55 5.65 10.03
Détournement de trafic organisé: les quotas “OPT” de l’UE
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.2
Tariff Preference
NA
FTA
utilizationrate
11. Textile
19. Arms14. Jewelry
8. Leather goods
17. Transport Eq.
20. Misc.
12. Footwear
7. PLastics
3. Fats and Oils
6. Chemicals13. Stone & Glass
4. Food. Be. & Tobacco9. Wood
18. Optics
1615 Base metal10
1
5
1. Live animals2. Vegetables5. Mineral Products10. Pulp & paper16. Machinery &El.eq
2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.2
Tariff Preference
NA
FTA
utilizationrate
11. Textile
19. Arms14. Jewelry
8. Leather goods
17. Transport Eq.
20. Misc.
12. Footwear
7. PLastics
3. Fats and Oils
6. Chemicals13. Stone & Glass
4. Food. Be. & Tobacco9. Wood
18. Optics
1615 Base metal10
1
5
1. Live animals2. Vegetables5. Mineral Products10. Pulp & paper16. Machinery &El.eq
2
Des préférences délaissées… donc peu attractives
01 Chapter:
Live animals
0101 Heading:
Iive horses, asses, mulles and hinnies
0102 Heading:
Live bovine animals
0103 Heading:
Live Swine
0104 Heading:
Live sheep andcoats
0105 Heading:
Live poultry
010110 Subheading:
Purebred breedinganimals
010190 Subheading:
Others
01011010 Item:
Males
01011020 Item:
Females
01019010 Item:
Horses
01019020 Item:
Asses
01 Chapter:
Live animals
0101 Heading:
Iive horses, asses, mulles and hinnies
0102 Heading:
Live bovine animals
0103 Heading:
Live Swine
0104 Heading:
Live sheep andcoats
0105 Heading:
Live poultry
010110 Subheading:
Purebred breedinganimals
010190 Subheading:
Others
01011010 Item:
Males
01011020 Item:
Females
01019010 Item:
Horses
01019020 Item:
Asses
Le système harmonisé de classification des biens
HS code Product description 200911 ORANGE JUICE, FROZEN, SWEETENED OR NOT 200919 ORANGE JUICE, OTHER THAN FROZEN, SWEETENED OR NOT 200920 GRAPEFRUIT JUICE, SWEETENED OR NOT 200930 CITRUS FRUIT JUICE FROM A SINGLE FRUIT, NESOI
HS codes/group Applicable Product-specific Rule of Origin (PSRO) 200911-200930
HS code Product description 080510 ORANGES, FRESH 080520 MANDARINS (INC TANGER ETC) & CITRUS HYBR FR OR DRI 080530 LEMONS AND LIMES, FRESH OR DRIED 080540 GRAPEFRUIT, FRESH OR DRIED 080590 CITRUS FRUITS, INC KUMQUATS, NESOI, FRESH OR DRIED
A change to subheading 200911 through 200930 from any other chapter, except from heading 0805
Faire du jus d’orange avec des courgettes
HS codes/group Applicable Product-specific Rule of Origin (PSRO)
...of subheading 511111 or 511119, if hand-woven, with a loom width of less than 76cm, woven in the United Kingdom in accordance with the rules and regulations of the Harris Tweed Association, Ltd, and so certified by the Association
...certain textile products
Cotonou Convention (EU)
Cotonou ConventionHS codes/group Applicable Product-specific Rule of Origin (PSRO)
It was at least 50% owned by nationals of an EU or ACP state (although under certainconditions leased or chartered vessels can qualify);
Fish
It was registered in an EU or ACP state ;It sailed under the flag of an EU or ACP state ;
The vessel’s captain, officers and at least 50% of its crew were nationals of an EU orACP state ;
The chairman and the majority of the board members of the company owning the vessel were nationals of an EU or ACP state
NAFTA
Avantage comparé
TissageTeinture
CoupeAssemblage
Intensif en
travail
Intensif en infrastruct
ureEgrenage
Filature
Production de coton
DistributionExpédition
-500
1 0001 5002 0002 5003 0003 500
Imports Exports
Clothing
Textiles
Le saucissonnage des filières
Intensif en
ressources nat.
Intensif en capital
010
020
030
040
050
0
Mill
ion
US
D
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Exports to other countries Exports to the EUN
Exports to the U SA Net Exports
010
020
030
040
050
0
Mill
ion
US
D
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Exports to other countries Exports to the EUN
Exports to the U SA Net Exports
1997 2003Botswana 7.1 7.1 89 0.0Kenya 31.3 187.8 94 34.8Lesotho 86.5 392.4 95 28.7Mauritius 184.4 269 50 6.5South Africa 70.9 231.8 54 21.8
AGOA util.
rate 2003 (%)
Annual growth 1997-2003
Exports to the US, HS61-62
Préférences pour les PMA:
Des effets qui peuvent être spectaculaires…
1997 1999 2001
Number of Employees 46,000 136,000 191,000
Skilled workers (%) 51% 54% 46%Unskilled workers (%) 49% 46% 56%Average years of education 8.5 9 7.9Temporary employment (%) 34% 39% 20%
Workers below the povery line (%) 50% 39% 42%Average earnings $37 $39 $50 of skilled workers $41 $52 $76 of unskilled workers $32 $29 $33
Average age 36 34 32Female laborforce (%) 76% 75% 80%
Workers' Localization by Region (%) Urban Antananarivo 49% 58% 44% Rural Antananarivo 9% 32% 41% Other 42% 10% 25%
… et bénéficier aux plus vulnérables
-
100'000
200'000
300'000
400'000
500'000
600'000
700'000
800'000
900'000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
USD
x 1'0
00
Export. 15 PMA d’ASS vers les Etats-Unis
Export. 15 PMA d’ASS vers l’UE
Export. Lesotho + Mada vers les Etats-Unis
Export. Lesotho + Mada vers l’UE
Début AGOA
Début TSA
AGOA vs. TSA: Des performances contrastées
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