La industria del papel y celulosa latinoamericana: entorno empresarial
Marina Faleiros, Senior News EditorMayo 2015
1 © Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information
Resumen del CV• Gerencia informaciones del sector de celulosa, papeles gráficos y cartón
en América Latina para la consultoría americana RISI, la mayor proveedora de informaciones para la industria de base forestal en el mundo.
• Ubicada en la oficina de San Pablo, trabaja con reportes y análisis sobre la macroeconomía de la región y los principales movimientos de la industria de celulosa y papel.
• Ya visitó profesionalmente todos los principales complexos industriales del sector en los países del continente y anteriormente trabajó en la Asociación Brasileña Técnica de Celulose y Papel (ABTCP).
• Graduada en periodismo por la universidad Cásper Líbero y actualmente cursa MBA en Finanzas y Economía
• Ya reportó sobre la economía brasileña en dos de los mayores periódicos del Brasil, O Estado de S. Paulo y Folha de S. Paulo.
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Notes and Abbreviations• Dollar figures are per tonne unless noted• BSK = Bleached Softwood Kraft Pulp (“long” fiber)
– NBSK (northern), SBSK (southern), radiata• BHK = Bleached Hardwood Kraft Pulp (“short” fiber)
– BEK (eucalyptus), NBHK (northern mixed, maple, aspen), acacia, mixed tropical hardwoods
• DP = Dissolving Pulp, primarily textile grade (viscose)• P&W = Printing & Writing Paper
– Coated and uncoated; woodfree and mechanical• AVC = Average Variable Cost of Production
– Also called Delivered Cash Cost—no depreciation, interest, corporate overhead or selling costs
• TPY = Tonnes per Year
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Celulosa mundial: desarrollos recientes
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Highlights of 2014 Capacity Developments
• BHK Developments– Montes del Plata startup
• 1.3 million TPY, Jul 2014
– Oji Nantong startup• ~500,000 TPY, Jul 2014
– Old Town closure • ~200,000 TPY, Aug 2014
– ENCE Huelva closure• ~400,000 TPY, Aug 2014
• BSK Developments– Ilim Bratsk
• Finised a long ramp-up after a maintenance shut in June
– Pols (Austria)• Recovery boiler repair• ~200,000 TPY loss until
late 2015
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As Expected, Pulp Demand Was Stronger in Second Half 2014, Especially in AsiaWorld-20 Shipments by Destination, Thousand Tonnes per Day
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
China Western Europe North America Rest of World
A Strong US Dollar Tends to Hold Down Commodity Prices, Including Pulp
7 © Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
95 98 01 04 07 10 13 16 19
USDEUR
Price NBSK China
USDEUR
Source: RISI
Euros,
Source: RISI
US$,
BSK Delivered Cash Costs to Shanghai: Third Quarter 2014 RISI Cost Benchmarking
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World Production of Paper and BoardGraphic, Packaging and Specialty and Tissue; Percent Change
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2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
3.7%
-2.0%
3.2% 3.0%
5.7%
1.9%
3.9%
2.7%
-0.4%
-5.6%
6.6%
1.0%0.5% 0.7% 1.0%
1.9%
The New Reality for World P&W Demand:Peak Demand Has Already Happened
10 © Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. All rights reserved.
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180P&W Production2007 Forecast
Mil
lio
n M
etr
ic T
on
s
20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420150
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40WorldChinaN. AmericaW. Europe
Demand for Tissue Papers Million Tonnes
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Pulp Supply and Risks
• Large BHK capacity expansions around mid-2015– CMPC Guaiba: 1.3 million tpy, mid-2015. Risks?
• Continuing swing from BHK to BSK production– Certainly as long as price gap is >$100/tonne
• Continuing shift from “integrated” to “market” pulp in North America and Europe
• Cost curve is shifting downward…could accelerate if the US “super dollar” reappears• A reprieve for small, inefficient BHK lines in Europe?
• DP demand still growing briskly, pulling some paper grade pulp capacity into DP production
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Key Points for the 2015 Forecast• Pulp demand outside of China is growing slowly, so Chinese
inventory swings dominate the demand side– There will be a large increase in Chinese BHK import demand
in 2015• A stronger economic environment in 2015 worldwide will boost
pulp demand, but not by as much as was expected• The next BHK line to start up will be in mid-2015, helping to pull
the industry operating rate (and profitability) down in the middle of the year
• Euro risk is still substantial
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Papeles para empaque
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Is Global Containerboard Still Growing?
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 160
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
180,000,000
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Volume (L)Percent Change (R)
© Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. All rights reserved.1616
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 160
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%Emerging MarketsMature MarketsGlobal Growth (R)
Mil
lio
ns
Emerging Markets Are Growing Faster
© Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. All rights reserved.17
World North Amer-ica
Europe Far East Latin Amer-ica
All Other-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%2001-20082011-2016
But Even They Are Slowing Down
18
The Latin American Markets are Among the Fastest Growing Markets in the WorldPercent Increase in Demand, 2009-2012
Rest of World Latin America North America Europe Asia-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
14.8%12.2%
-2.9%
0.6%
19.1%
9.3% World Average
19
The Growth Markets Can All Be Expected to See Demand Rise with Standard of Living2012 Figures
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 500
20
40
60
80
100
120
140North Amer-
ica
EuropeAsia
Latin Amer-ica
Rest of World
Per Capita GDP, PPP Constant Dollars
Pe
r C
ap
ita
Pa
ck
ag
ing
D
em
an
d k
g/P
ers
on
20
The Latin American Packaging Markets Are Far from Homogenous
0 5 10 15 20 250
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Ecuador
Chile
Peru
VenezuelaColombia
Argentina
MexicoBrazil
Guatemala
Dominican Republic
Per Capita GDP, PPP Constant Dollars
Pe
r C
ap
ita
Pa
ck
ag
ing
D
em
an
d k
g/P
ers
on
21
The 10 Largest Latin American Paper Packaging Markets by Tonnage
Brazil37%
Mexico28%
Argentina8%
Chile5%
Colombia5%
Ecuador3%
Venezuela3%
Costa Rica2%
Guatemala2%
Peru2%
All Other5%
22
Brazil Has the Largest Economy in Latin America, and Also the Largest Packaging Market
GDP APC Production0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
2009-2012
2013-2015
Av
era
ge
An
nu
al
Gro
wth
R
ate
23
Brazil Stands Out from the Rest of Latin America on the Trade FrontNet Imports, Thousand Tonnes
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
Containerboard Boxboard Wrapping Specialty
24
The Mexican Packaging Markets Are More Volatile than the Brazilian Market Due to the Influence of the USA
GDP APC Production-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%2009-20122013-2015
Av
era
ge
An
nu
al
Gro
wth
R
ate
25
Argentina Is One of the Few Countries in Latin America Where Demand Lags Well Behind GDP Growth
GDP APC Production0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%2009-20122013-2015
Av
era
ge
An
nu
al
Gro
wth
R
ate
26
Chile Has Turned in Fairly Steady Growth in Paper Packaging Demand
GDP APC Production0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%2009-20122013-2015
Av
era
ge
An
nu
al
Gro
wth
R
ate
27
Chile Has Been the Only Country Other Than Brazil to Maintain a Trade SurplusNet Imports, Thousand Tonnes
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
Containerboard Boxboard Wrapping Specialty
Conclusions: The Latin American Packaging Markets …• May be small in absolute terms on the global scale
– But contribute significantly to global growth given the high growth potential for the region
• Are quite diverse, reflecting each country’s economic makeup– The markets in any individual country may struggle during a particular
year– But growth in other parts of the region often offsets this– Resulting in more even growth than is seen in other parts of the world
• Are a critically important – For participants located within the markets– As well as those from outside Latin America
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Cartón
How Are the Global Markets Coping with China’s Capacity Bulge?
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Global DemandChinese Capacity *
Gro
wth
, Mill
ion
To
nn
es
30
* Realized Capacity Growth 2009-2013, Planned 2014-2015
© Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. All rights reserved.
Boxboard Demand in the Rest of the World Is Small (5.3 Million Tonnes in 2013) But Growing RapidlyMillion Tonnes and Percent of Global Demand
31
2.82471566754271; 54%
1.144629; 22%
0.982917999999999; 19%
0.304343749474347; 6%
Latin AmericaMiddle EastAfricaOceania
© Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brazilian Exports of Multi-ply Boxboard Compete in Global Markets with the Other Coated Virgin GradesThousand Tonnes
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
50
100
150
200
250Middle EastAsia & OceaniaAfricaEuropeNorth AmericaOther Latin America
32 © Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. All rights reserved.
33
Latin American Demand to Outpace Capacity Expansion, Leading to Modest Growth in Net Imports for the Region
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%DemandCapacityOperating Rate
Gro
wth
, Mill
ion
To
nn
es
Op
era
tin
g R
ate
33 © Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. All rights reserved.
Latin America, Africa and the Middle East Will Be the Battle Grounds for Virgin Boxboard ExportsNet Imports, Thousand Tonnes
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
100200300400500600700800900
1,000Latin AmericaAfricaMiddle EastOceania
34 © Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. All rights reserved.
Take Home Points for Global Boxboard• Demand should continue to grow across the world in
2015-2016• The massive capacity build in China will have an impact on global
trade throughout this period– Especially in the solid bleached and multi-ply virgin sectors
• Current suppliers to the Asian market will be displaced and will be seeking new homes for their exports
• Chinese ivoryboard mills will have costs similar to European mills, and will be competitive in areas where shipping costs are nearly equal
• Latin American and North American mills still have cost advantages over Asian producers, but prices in these regions are above the cost floor
35 © Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Papeles para impresión
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World Printing & Writing Paper DemandIs the global market in decline? Yes, its just a matter of degree.
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1980
90
100
110
120
-12%
-6%
0%
6%
Volume (L)Percent Change (R)
?
Million Tonnes
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Yet, Global UFS May Still Be Growing… Mechanical grades appear to be flat or declining globally
99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1910
20
30
40
50
60
UFS CFS
Cme Ume
Global Demand, Million Tonnes
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Global UFS Demand Growth for 2015 and 2016 Varies by RegionThousand Tonnes, Percent per Year
Global: 211 (0.2%)
76 (2.9%)
-140 (-1.0%) 576 (1.0%)
138 (4.3%)
-42 (-0.7%)
-21 (-2.3%)
-478 (-2.9%)
102 (1.4%)
40
Latin America: Small, Yes… But Growing Market??
* Annual growth rate 2015-2016
UFS largest and growing
Graphic demand fell 4% in 2013 and 1-2% in 2014
Optimistically expecting this to turn slightly positive in 2015-2016
Newsprint only grade in decline
99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415160.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5News -0.9% *UFS 1.4%CFS 1.4%Cme 1.6%Ume 1.6%
00
0 T
on
ne
s
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…The Region’s Imports Are Growing While Producers Focus on Pulp
EBITDA margins are far better in pulp as it leverages the low wood costs better than paper
Newsprint requires softwood or recycled fiber, neither of which is plentiful in Latin America, so it is often imported
Uncoated freesheet exports from Brazil offset by imports elsewhere
All other grades require imports from abroad to fulfill market requirements…CFS imports have inundated certain markets
Operating rates are only 88-90% due in part to imports99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
-300
-100
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
Latin American Net Imports Rise
NewsCFSCmeUmeUFS
Th
ou
san
d T
on
nes
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Mexico…Better Prospects than Most of Latin America Due to Stronger GDP and Link to US Markets
Mexico GDP back to 3% in 2015-2016
Newsprint will not recover but could stagnate ... an improvement from past trends
Uncoated freesheet struggling with slight declines in 2013-2014
RISI Forecast of Renewed Growth in Demand Seems Optimistic and Based on Stronger GDP
99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 160
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
News 0.8% *UFS 2.2%CFS 3.4%Cme 3.9%Ume 4.7%
00
0 T
on
ne
s
* Annual growth rate 2015-2016
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Comparative Costs for Producing Standard 20 lb/75 gsm Cut Size Office PapersUS Dollars per Tonne, Second Half of 2013
Th
aila
nd
Bra
zil
US
So
uth
Ce
ntr
al .
..
Ind
on
es
ia
No
rdic
Ja
pa
n
Ch
ina
We
ste
rn...
Me
xic
o
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200 Mill Cash Costs SG&A Capital Costs Delivery to Natural Market
43
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World Uncoated Freesheet DemandMillion Tonnes, Percent Change
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016North America 9.3 8.8 8.8 8.4 8.1 7.9
%ch -4% -5% 0% -5% -3% -3%
Western Europe 7.6 7.4 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.9 %ch -5% -3% -5% 0% -1% -1%
Eastern Europe 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 %ch -3% 2% 1% 1% -2% 0%
Far East 26.9 27.3 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.3%ch 4% 2% 2% 0% 1% 1%
Latin America 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8%ch 1% 0% 0% 2% 1% 1%
Middle East, Africa, Oceania 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5%ch 5% 6% -4% 3% 3% 3%
Total 53.7 53.6 53.5 53.3 53.4 53.5%ch 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
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Global Demand for Cut Size Uncoated Freesheet PaperThousand Tonnes
2,00
02,
001
2,00
22,
003
2,00
42,
005
2,00
62,
007
2,00
82,
009
2,01
02,
011
2,01
22,
013
2,01
42,
015
2,01
613,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
.
45
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North American Demand for Cut Size Uncoated Freesheet Paper (Thousand tonnes)
46
2,000 2,001 2,002 2,003 2,004 2,005 2,006 2,007 2,008 2,009 2,010 2,011 2,012 2,013 2,014 2,015 2,0163,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
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Latin American Demand for Cut Size Uncoated Freesheet Paper (Thousand Tonnes)
47
2,00
0
2,00
1
2,00
2
2,00
3
2,00
4
2,00
5
2,00
6
2,00
7
2,00
8
2,00
9
2,01
0
2,01
1
2,01
2
2,01
3
2,01
4
2,01
5
2,01
6
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
Per Capita Consumption of Cut Size Uncoated Freesheet Paper by RegionKG/Person
Europe North America
Asia/Far East
Oceania Middle East
Africa Latin America
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
200020132023
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Global Overcapacity Developed in 2011-2013Announced Net Uncoated Woodfree Capacity Changes for 2011-2013 vs. Demand Growth for the Same Period, Thousand Tonnes
Europe N. America Asia, ME, OCE, Afr
Latin America Global-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000Capacity GrowthDemand Growth
Note: Asian capacity expansions exclude the offsetting effect of government mandated closures of small, old, polluting mills
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Leading to a Rise in Exports from Asia While Brazil’s Net Exports of Uncoated Freesheet Stagnate
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000BrazilIndonesiaChina
Th
ou
sa
nd
To
nn
es
of
Ne
t E
xp
ort
s
© Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information
UFS Demand and Capacity Changes More Balanced for 2015-2016Announced Net Uncoated Woodfree Capacity Changes for 2015-2016 vs. RISI Forecast of Demand Growth for the Same Period,Thousand Tonnes
Europe N. America Asia, ME, OCE, AFR
Latin America Global-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000Capacity Growth
Demand Growth
Note: includes prorated capacity changes for 2014
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Uncoated Woodfree Operating RatesNorth American shuts had surprisingly little impact on operating rates due to surge in imports
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201683%
85%
87%
89%
91%
93%
95%
97%
99%N. AmericaW. EuropeAsia
Paper & Board Markets – Global• Improvements in developed economies, led by
robust growth in the USA and the end of recession in Western Europe, will drive improved paper and paperboard demand growth over the next two years.
• This improvement comes even as the Chinese economy slows and Brazil officially enters recession, but the growth of the US economy seems to be domestically fueled.
• A major round of capacity expansion in Asia will put pressure on global tissue and boxboard markets despite projected healthy demand growth.
• Despite major capacity closures by North American producers in 2014, global graphic paper markets remain oversupplied, with stagnant global P&W demand and a negative outlook for newsprint.Figures outside of pie chart are forecast changes
in demand from 2014 to 2016.
Printing & Writing
Newsprint Tissue
Cartonboard/Other
Containerboard
408 million tonnes (% of total)Forecast Change 2014-2016:
6%
6%
0%
-5%34 mt9%
90 mt23%
152 mt38%
105 mt26%
Paper and Board Demand
4%
27 mt7%
8%
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For more information:
Latin American Forecast
www.risi.com/latinam
Thank you for your attention!