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ESD.36J System & Project Management
Dynamics of Project Performance+-
Strategic Issues in ProjectPreparation and Planning
SD Class Five (10/7/03)Copyright 2003James M. Lyneis
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- Topics
Homework Review and Module One
Wrapup
Project Management A StrategicView
Managing Project Dynamics -Project Preparation and Planning
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- Topics
Homework Review and Module One
Wrapup
Project Management A StrategicView
Managing Project Dynamics -Project Preparation and Planning
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- Homework Assignments HW1: Network Planning Techniques HW2: Task based DSM HW3: Design a Project Organization
HW4: SD verify Brooks law HW5: Case study comparison HW6: SD project adapation
Discuss MasterSolution
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- HW1 SolutionUAV Project
Reducing Critical Path [Kerzner]: Transferring resources to critical paths Elimination of some parts of the project Addition of more resources Substitution of less time-consuming tasks Parallelization of activities Shortening critical path activities Shortening early activities Shortening longest activities
Shortening easiest activities Shortening activities least costly to speed up Increasing the number of work hours per day
(EF) June 4, 2008Copyright 2003
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- HW1 Solution (cont.)
(EF) June 6, 2008
GFEengineSetting target dates for
suppliers:
GFEday 29 Engineday 44 (51)
Probability of finishing byday 100
TE(m)=20, TV(m)=4 TE(n)=25, TV(n)=25 z=(100-110)/sqrt(29)=-1.86 Probability 3.1%
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- HW2 Solution DSMItems 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1! Requirement definition
1
l
b
2! Engine specification 1 c 1
3! Vehicle layout 1 d 14! GFE interface 1 e 1
5! Fuselage design 1 1 1 f 1
6! Wing design 1 g 1
7! Avionics design 1 1 h 1
8! Empennage design 1 i
9! Engine delivery 1 j
10! Vehicle integration 1 1 1 k
11! GFE delivery 1
12! Ground testing 1 m
13! Flight testing 1 n
Artifact of sequencingDesign processFeedback additions
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-10/7/03 8
+
-
2003
HW2 Solution (cont.)BCDEFGHIJKLM
N
BCDE
FGHIJKLM
N
ESD.36J SPMCopyright
James M. Lyneis
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- HW2 Solution (cont.)Airframe Equipment
Design InstallationItems
1! Requirement definition
3! Vehicle layout
5! Fuselage design
8! Empennage design Unplanned6! Wing design Iterations4! GFE interface
7! Avionics design
2! Engine specification
9! Engine delivery
11! GFE delivery
10! Vehicle integration
12! Ground testing
13! Flight testing
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 12 13
b
1 d 1
1 f 1 1 1
1 i 11 g 1
1 e 1
1 h 1
1 c 1
1 j
1 l
1 1 1 1 k
1 1 1 m
1 1 1 n
Integration
and Test
PlannedIterations
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-
Wrapup Discussion for Module 1(Methods and Tools)
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- Critical Path Method/PERT
critical path0 C,20 20 20
E,20 F,4040 40 80
Finish
S=0 A,0 0
Start
G,2080 H,0100 100 F=100
0 B,10 10 20 D,30 50
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- What is CPM useful for?
Copyright 200310/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 12
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1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1314
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
2930
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
+
- Design Structure Matrix1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60Set customer targetEstimate sales volumesEstablish pricing directionSchedule project timelineDevelopment methodsMacro targets/constraintsFinancial analysisDevelop program mapCreate initial QFD matrixSet technical requirementsWrite customer specificationHigh-level modelingWrite target specificationDevelop test planDevelop validation planBuild base prototypeFunctional modelingDevelop product modules
Lay out integrationIntegration modelingRandom testingDevelop test parametersFinalize schematicsValidation simulationReliability modelingComplete product layoutContinuity verificationDesign rule checkDesign package
Generate masksVerify masks in fabRun wafersSort wafersCreate test programsDebug productsPackage productsFunctionality testingSend samples to customersFeedback from customersVerify sample functionalityApprove packaged productsEnvironmental validationComplete product validationDevelop tech. publicationsDevelop service coursesDetermine marketing nameLicensing strategyCreate demonstrationConfirm quality goalsLife testingInfant mortality testingMfg. process stabilizationDevelop field support planThermal testingConfirm process standardsConfirm package standardsFinal certificationVolume productionPrepare distribution networkDeliver product to customers
10/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM 13
x x
x x x
x x
x
x x
x x
x x
x
x x x
x x x x x O O O O
x x x x x x x
x x xx x x x x x
x x x x
x x
x x x O O O O O O
x x x O
x x x
x x x x x x x x
x x x
x x
x x x x O O O O O
x x x x x x
x x
x x x x
x x
x x x
x x x x x O O O O
x x O
x x x
x x O
x
x
x x x x x O O O O
x x x
x x x
x x x x
x
x
x x
x x x x
x x
x x x x
x x x
x x
x x x
x x x x
x x x
x x x x x
x x x x x
x x x O O
x x
x x x
x x x
x x x x x x
x
x x
x x x
x x x x
x = Information Flows = Planned Iterations O = Unplanned Iterations = Generational Learning
Concurrent Activity Blocks
Potential Iterations
Generational Learning
Sequential Activities
x x x
x x x x
x x x x x
x x x
x x
O O O O
x x x x x x x x
x x x x
x x x x x x x x x x O O O O
x x x x x x
x x x x x x
x x
x x
x x x x x x x x
x x x
x x x
x x x x
x x x
x x x x
O O O
x x x
O O O
x x
x x x
x x x x
x x
x x
x x x x x x x x x x
x x
x x x x x
x x x x x
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- What is DSM useful for?
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-System Dynamics
External factors; management responses; side effects
ity
ApparentProgress
CustomerChanges Schedule
Acceleration
Work, Worksite
Congestion,CoordinationProblems,
Employee Skill
Fatigue,Burnout
Overtime
Hiring
ScopeGrowth
UndiscoveredReworkKnownRework
Work
Really Done
Work
To Be Done
Progress
ReworkDiscovery
People Productiv Quality
Out-of-Sequence
Morale Problems
Average
and Quality
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- What is SD useful for?
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- SPM Methods OverviewPERT DSM SD
CPM
(+)
strength
Detailed
Planning
Critical path
identification
Captures
iterations
Meta-tasks
Architecture-
task mapping
Explores
dynamic
drivers
Informs PM
actions
(-)weakness
No iterationsNo connection
to organization
Operationalplanning
individual taskmodels
impractical
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Class
Schedule(refer to
syllabus)
ModuleBusiness2
+
-
12/4 Presentations 212/2 Presentations 1
11/25 No Class
11/20 Success Factors
11/13 Concurrency11/11 Veterans Day
11/6 Project Adaptation11/4 Project Tracking
10/30 Risk Management10/28 Critical Path
10/23 Case 3: H/W&S/W10/21 Case 2: H/W
10/16 Case 1: S/W10/14 ICE Methods
10/9 PDPs10/7 Strategic Issues
10/2 Managing9/30 Project Simulation
9/25 Feedback & Rework
9/18 Project Organization9/16 Iterations DSM
9/11 Task-based DSM9/9 Network Techniques
11/27 Thanksgiving
11/18 Project Metrics
Dynamics
9/23 System Dynamics 1
Trip
Note twoNo Class3-hour
classes
in
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System Project Management
ESD.36 Framework
ProjectPreparation Project
Planning
ProjectAdaptation
Project
Monitoring
Enterprise has
chosen what productor system to develop
Ref: J. Warmkessel
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- Topics
Homework Review and Module One
Wrapup
Project Management A StrategicView
Managing Project Dynamics -Project Preparation and Planning
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- Framework
Project
Preparation
Project
Planning
Project
Execution
Project
Adaptation
Doing the right job
Doing the job right
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-
What is strategy as it applies to
an individual project (vs. corporate
strategy as it applies to projectsand the project portfolio)?
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Corporate Strategy for the Project
Determining the fit of the project to businessobjectives (the mission doing the right job)
features / scope of end product schedule milestones (time to market) delivered quality (defects) resources & budget (development cost)And the mix/timing of projects necessary to achieve
corporate strategy
Operationally, projects implementcorporate strategy.
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-Mission Dimensions
Priority & Specific ObjectivesHigh, Stretch Low, Slack
Features / Scope
Defects/ Undiscovered
Rework
Resources / Cost
Time-to-Market/
Schedule
Medium
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-Strategic Project Management
Understanding how project design decisionsaffect project performance Scope/schedule/ ... (i.e., mission) Organization, process, ... Buffers, phase overlap, ... Staffing strategies, schedule slip, ... ...
and how they affect other current projects(portfolio issues), and future projects.
Operationally, day-to-day projectdecisions implement project strategy.
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-Process & Organization Issues
Waterfall vs. spiral vs. ...Autonomous team vs. functional (&
therefore multiple projects per person?)
Integrated product teams? System vs. modules (?) How much to subcontract, make vs. buy
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-Staffing Issues
How much to rely on overtime (vs.adding staff)?
Should you pay extra for experience? Generalists vs. specialists? Co-location vs. geographically
dispersed (vs. not getting enough
people, local content, ?) How much training How much is it worth to reduce attrition?
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-Strategic vs Operational Decisions
Operational Strategic
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Strategic Project Management Pertains
to Both Preparation & Planning
2003
Project
Preparation
Project
Planning
Project
Execution
Project
Adaptation
Doing the right job
Doing the job right
Strategic Project
Management
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- Topics
Homework Review and Module One
Wrapup
Project Management A Strategic
View
Managing Project Dynamics -Project Preparation and Planning
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-
Typical project dynamics ...
ProjectStaffing
Typical
Plan
... Result inschedule
&/or budget
overrun
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Project dynamics from Homework 4:
Graph for Staff Level60
45
30
15
0
Plan
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)
Staff Level : Class4 Hire 100 People
Staff Level : Class4 Hire 0 People
Staff Level : Class4 People
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Strategic Project Management
What can we do to avoid/minimize thedynamics ...
in project preparation (design) andproject planning?
in project execution and adaptation(e.g., risk management and change
management)?
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2003
Work Qualityto Date
ScheduledCompletion
Time
ExpectedCompletion
Time
Availabilityof Prerequisites
Progress
Pressure
Out-of-SequenceWork
Morale
Hours atCompletion
HoursExpended
to Date
Skill &Experience
Hiring
EquivalentStaff onProject
StaffingRequested
TurnoverOrganizational
Changes
Staff
Quality
Added
WorkWork
Overtime
TimeRemaining
Be Done
How do the dynamics get started?
Copyright
Perceived
Schedule
ExpectedProgress
ReworkDiscovery
Size
Productivity
Obsoleted
Work To
Undiscovered
Rework
Known
Rework
Work
Really Done
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-
How Does It Get Started?
Inconsistent mission(scope/schedule/defects/budget)
Late changes and other risks
Quality problems
These are characteristics of complex
(vs. simple) projects
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2003
Work Qualityto Date
ScheduledCompletion
Time
ExpectedCompletion
Time
Availabilityof Prerequisites
Progress
SchedulePressure
Out-of-SequenceWork
Morale
Hours atCompletion
HoursExpended
to Date
Skill &Experience
Hiring
EquivalentStaff onProject
StaffingRequested
TurnoverOrganizational
Changes
Staff
Quality
Added
WorkWork
Overtime
TimeRemaining
Be Done
How does it get started?
Copyright
Perceived
ExpectedProgress
ReworkDiscovery
Size
Productivity
Obsoleted
Work To
Undiscovered
Rework
Known
Rework
Work
Really Done
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How Does It Get Started?
Inconsistent mission(scope/schedule/defects/budget)
Late changes and other risks
Quality problems
These are characteristics of complex
(vs. simple) projects
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-
Mission Dimensions
Priority & Specific ObjectivesHigh, Stretch Low, Slack
Features / Scope
Defects/ Undiscovered
Rework
Resources / Cost
Time-to-Market/
Schedule
Medium
What should the objectives be?
How many can be high priority?Copyright 200310/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis
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-
Consistent Project Can Achieve the Plan
Scope = 100 (tasks) Scheduled Completion Date = 30
(month) (vs. 27 in Class4 model)
Delivered Quality > 99% Staff = 4 (people) Normal Quality = .95 (fraction) (vs. .85
in Class4 model)
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Staff & Progress
100 Task6 People
75 Task
4.5 People
50 Task
3 People
25 Task
1.5 People
0 Task
0 People0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)
Work Done : Plan Task
Staff Level : Plan People
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-
Quality
1
0.95
0.9
0.85
0.8
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)
Quality : Plan FractionEffect of Prior Work Quality on Quality : Plan Fraction
Effect of Experience on Quality : Plan Fraction
Effect of Schedule Pressure on Quality : Plan Fraction
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+ Inconsistent Projects Can Initiate
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-
Inconsistent Projects Can Initiate
the Dynamics
Plan Work 125 [Scope = 125 initial tasks (vs100)]
Plan Schedule 22 [Scheduled completiondate = 22.5 (vs 30)]
Plan Staff 3 [Staff = 3 people until past 50%complete (vs 4); this might also reflect
resource constraints as well as poor or
aggressive planning]. Plan Quality 85 [Normal Quality = .85 (vs
.95)]
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-
Graph for Staff Level
20
15
10
5
0
Plan
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)
Staff Level : Plan People
Staff Level : Plan Work 125 People
Staff Level : Plan Schedule 22 People
Staff Level : Plan Staff 3 People
Staff Level : Plan Quality 85 People
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+
Wh t k it ?
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What makes it worse?
- TimeRemaining
Skill &Experience
Staff
Morale Organizational Turnover HiringSize
Changes
Overtime
Schedule Staffing
ScheduledCompletion
Out-of-Sequence
Pressure Equivalent Requested
Productivity QualityStaff on
Time Project
WorkHours
ExpendedProgressExpected to Date ExpectedWorkCompletion Availability
Work To
Be Done Really Done Hours atTime of Prerequisites Added Completion
Work ObsoletedKnown Undiscovered WorkWork Quality
to DateRework Rework
ReworkDiscovery
PerceivedProgress
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+ What makes it worse?
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Graph for Quality
1
0.75
0.5
0.25
0
Quality on Quality
Feedback
What makes it worse?
Plan
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)
Quality : Class 5 Plan Fraction
Quality : Class 5 Plan Scope 125 Fraction
Quality : Class 5 Plan Schedule 22 Fraction
Quality : Class 5 Plan Staff 3 Fraction
Quality : Class 5 Plan Quality 85 Fraction
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+ What makes it worse?
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Graph for Effect of Experience on Quality
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
Experience on
Quality Feedback
What makes it worse?
Plan
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)
Effect of Experience on Quality : Class 5 Plan Dimensionless
Effect of Experience on Quality : Class 5 Plan Scope 125 Dimensionless
Effect of Experience on Quality : Class 5 Plan Schedule 22 Dimensionless
Effect of Experience on Quality : Class 5 Plan Staff 3 Dimensionless
Effect of Experience on Quality : Class 5 Plan Quality 85 Dimensionless
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+ Trying to achieve inconsistent
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-
Trying to achieve inconsistent
objectives can lead to disasterTest Finish Cost(person-mos)Plan 29.875 116.7Increase Scope 33.125 211.3 (vs. 145
to 125 budget)
Reduce 27.6 194.7
Schedule to 22.5Reduce Initial 34 193.0Staff to 3
35.8 213.5
Normal Q = .85
With end result worse (schedule/cost) than if project
budgeted higher at startCopyright
200310/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 48
+ What is implicit lower priority in above
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-
p p y
simulations (and Homework 4 model)?
Adding staff, and therefore cost. Based on homework, can this ever
work?
How often do you believe thoseconditions exist?
Copyright
200310/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 49
+
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-
How Does It Get Started?
Inconsistent mission(scope/schedule/defects/budget)
Late changes and other risks Quality problems
These are characteristics of complex(vs. simple) projects
Copyright
200310/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 50
+ Late Project Changes Can Create
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-
j g
the Dynamics As Well
Changes 20% of tasks done obsoleted at month 15 Put into undiscovered rework (what needs
to be redone often not completely known
when change is made).
Copyright
200310/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 51
+ Work Done
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-
Graph for Work Done
100
75
50
25
0
0 3 6 9
Work Done ...
Changes
12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)
Work Done : Class 5 Plan Task
Work Done : Class 5 Changes Task
Copyright
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+
Quality
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Graph for Quality-
Quality ...1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
Changes
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)
Quality : Class 5 Plan Fraction
Quality : Class 5 Changes Fraction
Copyright
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+
H D It G t St t d?
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How Does It Get Started?
Inconsistent mission(scope/schedule/budget)
Late changes and other risks Quality problems
These are characteristics of complex(vs. simple) projects
Copyright
200310/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 55
+ What causes project quality
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- problems?
Remember, quality as used in themodel is any work done incorrectly orincompletely, regardless of cause
Copyright
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+ What are differences between changes
d lit bl ?
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-
and quality problems?
Changes represent truly unknowable,uncontrollable, exogenous impacts(though the fact that they often happenmight be planned for)
competitor introduces a new feature ...
Quality problems can be anticipatedand dealt with in the design andmanagement of the project
buffers, prototypes, process, ...Copyright 2003
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+How can we design a project that minimizes
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-
g p j
the chances of the dynamics getting started?
Consistent mission? Reflects typical quality problems?
Accounts for possible changes andrisks?
Note: Source of problem affects solution
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+ Strategic Project Management Pertains to
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- Both Preparation & Planning
Project
Preparation
Project
Planning
Project
Execution
Project
Adaptation
Doing the right job
Doing the job right
Strategic Project
Management
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+
Strategic Project Management
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Strategic Project Management
Establishing project designparameters -
Consistent mission Development process Organization structure (?) Staffing strategy Phase overlap & concurrency What to measure, monitor, and exert
pressure on ...
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+
Strategic Project Design
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-
Strategic Project Design
Given the mission objectives, what is theproject likely to cost and when will it finish(given prior experience)? What risks mightthe project face?
How can we optimize the tradeoff amongscope/schedule/budget in meeting theprojects mission? What will it really cost meto finish earlier, add features, .
What changes in process, organization, etc. might improve the tradeoff.
Copyright 200310/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 62
+How many people feel that on the typical project
i i i b d d h d l
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-in your organization, budget and schedule are
More than is needed __________
Just right __________
Tight, but manageable __________
Insufficient enough that the vicious circles aresignificant __________
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+
Why Wont We Develop a Realistic Plan?
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-
Why Won t We Develop a Realistic Plan?
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+
Lessons
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-
Lessons
Getting a feasible project design is thefirst step to avoiding adverse projectdynamics
Prior projects are the best source ofinformation with which to design arobust project
There is an optimal tradeoff amongscope, budget, schedule, and delivered
defectsCopyright 2003
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+ How can we design a project that minimizes the
chances of the dynamics getting started?
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-
chances of the dynamics getting started?
Consistent mission? Reflects typical quality problems?
Accounts for possible changes andrisks?
Note: Source of problem affects solution
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+
Strategic Project Management
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-
g j g
Establishing project design
parameters - Consistent mission Development process Organization structure (?) Staffing strategy
Strategic Phase overlap & concurrency Project
Planning? What to measure, monitor,and exert pressure on
... Copyright 200310/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 67
+
Selected Issues in Project Planning
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-Selected Issues in Project Planning
Selecting the process model Defining teams and responsibilitiesActivity planning and resource allocation Scheduling Determining what to measure, monitor,
exert pressure on (reward)
Identifying risks and mitigation plans
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+
Strategic Process & Organization Issues
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-g g
Waterfall vs. spiral vs. adaptive vs. ?Autonomous (dedicated) integrated
product team vs. functional? System vs. modules? How much phase overlap and
concurrency?
How much to subcontract, make vs.buy?
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+
Strategic Staffing Issues
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-S g S g
How much to rely on overtime (vs.adding staff)?
Should you pay extra for experience? Generalists vs. specialists? Co-location vs. geographically
dispersed?
How much training?
How much is it worth to reduce attrition?Copyright 2003
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+
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-
How do we assess what is rightfor out project?
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+ How do we assess what is right
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-
for our project?System Dynamics Approach: Model the project with current processes, policies, Specify the direct impacts of alternatives (steady
state vs. dynamic) on - Scope productivity quality rework discovery strength of productivity and quality effects ...[Secondary impacts assessed via simulation]
Simulate and compare performance
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+ Autonomous Integrated Teams vs.
Functional: Autonomous Teams ...
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- Functional: Autonomous Teams ...
Pros Cons
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+ Autonomous Integrated Teams vs.
Functional: Sample Test
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- Functional: Sample Test
Integrated Teams:
Improve normal quality to 0.925 (from 0.85because diverse members of team capture
mistakes before they happen)
Reduce Maximum rework discovery time to4 months (from 12 months)
Reduce Normal productivity to .9 (from 1
because multiple team member slowprogress, more review, discussion, )
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+
-
Graph for Staff Level
20
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-
15
10
5
0
Plan
Functional
Product Team
Integrated
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)
Staff Level : Class6 Plan People
Staff Level : Class6 Waterfall People
Staff Level : Class6 Integrated Teams People
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+
-
Graph for Quality
1
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0.75
0.5
0.25
0
Plan
Functional
Product Team
Integrated
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)
Quality : Class6 Plan Fraction
Quality : Class6 Waterfall Fraction
Quality : Class6 Integrated Teams Fraction
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+
-
Graph for Undiscovered Rework
40
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30
20
10
0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Plan
Functional
Product Team
Integrated
Time (Month)
Undiscovered Rework : Class6 Plan Task
Undiscovered Rework : Class6 Waterfall Task
Undiscovered Rework : Class6 Integrated Teams Task
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+
-
Autonomous Integrated Teams vs.
Functional
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TestPlanFunctional
Integrated
Product Team
Finish Cost(person-mos)
29.875 116.738.875 263.3
31.625 189.38
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+
-Conclusions re. Integrated Teams
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An integrated product team or similarorganization structure can improve
performance if project conditions would
otherwise cause significant undiscovered
rework
The benefits of these structures increase withthe uncertainty (risk), and likely project
overrun with traditional development
approaches
Cautions ...Copyright 2003
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+
-Strategic Project Management
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Establishing project design parameters - Consistent mission Development process Organization structure (?) Staffing strategy Phase overlap & concurrency What to measure, monitor, and exert pressure on ...
Next SD class well deal with the other
design issuesCopyright 2003
10/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 80
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