Kevin Sheehan
Head of StrategyLondon Borough of Lewisham
7 June 2010
Lewisham Today
Lewisham, London and the wider region
Lewisham residents and businesses are well placed to access the employment and commercial opportunities
throughout London
London’s cultural offer
Where Lewisham residents travel to work
Mobility of Lewisham service users
4,120 young people travel to school in Lewisham from outside of the borough – which equates to 12% of our school population. 3,400 go the other way.
57% of Lewisham College students are from outside of the borough.
25% of Lewisham Hospital NHS Trust’s patients are from outside of the borough
22% of Goldsmiths, University of London students are from outside the UK
London’s economy has a strong specialism in business and financial services, compared to the UK and other countries
Industrial composition of London, Manchester and the UK compared to other countries (2007-08)
London’s economy: a thirty year shift from manufacturing to services
Employment in London by sector over time
Male employment rates
Male employment rates in London and UK over time
Female employment rates
Female employment rates in London & UK over time
London has a young, highly-qualified workforce compared to the UK
Age profile of residents 16+ in employment, 2008
However, Lewisham has the highest proportion of residents without Level 2 qualifications – and the 2nd lowest proportion
with Level 4Skills and Qualifications:
% of residents with qualifications below level of 5 GCSE's (Grade A*-C) or equivalent (Jan - Dec 2008)
11.9
13.6
14.3
14.6
14.7
15.2
15.3
15.5
15.8
16.1
17.7
15.2
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0
Hackney
Kensington and Chelsea
Tower Hamlets
Camden
Wandsworth
Islington
Southwark
Lambeth
Westminster City
Hammersmith and Fulham
Lewisham
Inner London
Consequently, JSA claimants in Lewisham tend to aim for lower-skilled positions – where there is the highest
competition for jobsWhat jobs do Lewisham JSA claimants want?
By Broad Occupation Type and Broad Age Category, Lewisham Residents, September 2009
30
115 110
255
285
190
140
475
95
355
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 05 10 20
60
125
45 55
295
15
135
15
80 80
180
140115
75
165
65
190
10 20 15 20 15 25 15 10 1530
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0 : Occupationunknown
1 : Managersand Senior
Officials
2 :ProfessionalOccupations
3 : AssociateProfessional
and TechnicalOccupations
4 :Administrative
andSecretarial
Occupations
5 : SkilledTrades
Occupations
6 : PersonalService
Occupations
7 : Sales andCustomerService
occupations
8 : Process,Plant andMachine
Operatives
9 : ElementaryOccupations
Total (all ages)
Total (-18)
Total (18-24)
Total (25-49)
Total (50 +)
This is reflected in the types of jobs Lewisham residents do –we have the smallest proportion of residents working in
banking, finance & insurance Occupations:
Breakdown of resident employment by sector, inner London boroughs, April 2008 to March 2009
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Camden Hammersmithand Fulham
Kensingtonand Chelsea
Lewisham TowerHamlets
Westminster London
Agriculture and fishing Energy and water ManufacturingConstruction Distribution, hotels and restaurants Transport and communicationsBanking, finance and insurance Public admin. education and health Other services
Despite low skill levels, Lewisham’s employment rate is the third highest in Inner London….
Employment rate by Inner London borough, Sept 09 (ONS)
78.271.6 71.4 68.3 68.1 67.8 66.6 65.6 65.5 64.1 63.5 61.0
56.3
0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0
Wandsw
orth
Lambeth
Lewish
am
Hackn
ey
Hammersm
ith an
d Fulh
amSou
thwark
Camde
nWestm
inster
Islingto
n
Kensin
gton a
nd C
helse
aHari
ngey
Tower
Hamlets
Newha
m
….and the JSA claimant rate has remained relatively steady over the last 12 months – with the gap with the London average narrowing slightly
JSA claimant rate, last 12 months
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
Great Britain LondonLewisham
Lewisham has a relatively small economy, with the second lowest number of businesses in Inner
London
Active businesses by Inner London Borough, ONS 2008
45,965
24,375
15,230 13,800 13,550 12,845 12,375 11,750 11,490 11,305 10,7659,075 7,470 5,935
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000
W
estm
inster
Cam
den
Wan
dswort
h
City
of Lo
ndon
Isl
ington
Sou
thwark
Ken
sington
and C
helse
a
Ham
mersmith
and F
ulham
Tow
er Hamlet
s
Lambe
th
Hackn
ey
Haring
ey
Lewish
am
Newha
m
House prices in Lewisham: 2009-10
Average house prices, 1995-2010
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Lewisham England & Wales London
Source: Land Registry
Numbers of households living in temporary accommodation in Lewisham
Number of Households living in Temporary Accommodation17
48
1724
1637
1596
1554
1496
1478
1381
1329
1294
1255
1242
1152
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Apr 0
9
May
09
Jun
09
Jul 0
9
Aug
09
Sep
09
Oct
09
Nov
09
Dec
09
Jan
10
Feb
10
Mar
10
Apr 1
0
Month
Num
ber
Actual (YTD) Target (YTD)
The numbers living in temporary accommodation continues to fall.In April, performance of 1152 exceeded the target 1214 by 62.
Lewisham: people and place
2nd largest inner-London borough (3rd largest in terms of population with over 260,000 residents)
More than 800 voluntary and community organisations, and 200+ faith groups
15th most ethnically diverse local authority area in England with over 167 languages spoken
Strong neighbourhood and area identities – majority of residents recognise their neighbourhood as ‘my street and neighbouring streets’
Lewisham’s population has risen by over 7,000 since 2001, with continued growth predicted
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Belling
ham
Blackh
eath
Brockle
yCatf
ord S
outh
Crofton
Park
Downh
am
Evelyn
Fores
t Hill
Grove P
arkLa
dywell
Lee G
reen
Lewish
am C
entra
lNew
Cros
sPerr
y Vale
Rushe
y Gree
nSyd
enha
mTele
graph
Hill
Whit
efoot
pers
ons
(000
s)
2009 2015
Projected population growth by ward, 2009-15 (GLA)
Lewisham’s young population
Population projection pyramid, annual percentage of males and females, by single year of age, Lewisham and England 2008/9
1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5%05
1015202530354045505560657075808590
Males Females
Change in ethnicity of Lewisham’s population, 2001-7
Changes in Lewisham's Ethnic Make-up 2001-2007, persons, % of total, source ONS 2001 Census and mid year estimates for 2007
65.9% 65.1%
23.4% 21.7%
3.8% 6.0%4.2% 4.3%2.7% 2.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2001 2007
Other
Mixed
Asian or Asian British
Black British, African orCaribbean
White
Projected change in ethnicity of Lewisham’s population, 2009-15
Ethnic Group baseline year % compound growth
2009 2012 2015 2009-2015
population (000s)
%growth
White 158.3 157.8 157.8
-0.3% 0.0% -0.3%
Black African 29.6 31.1 32.4
5.1% 4.0% 9.4%
Black Caribbean 35.3 36.7 38.0
3.9% 3.5% 7.6%
All others 41.0 43.5 45.5
5.9% 4.8% 11.0%
Like most London boroughs, Lewisham has increasing levels of deprivation compared to the rest of England
Of 354 local authority areas in England, Lewisham is the 39th
most deprived
Lewisham has 166 ‘localities’ (LSOAs) of these:
• 64 are in England’s 20% most deprived
• 8 are in England’s 10% most deprived
Life expectancy in Lewisham is 18 months lower than the London average for men and women. Within the borough, there is an 8 year gap in life expectancy for men born in Blackheath and New Cross.
Life expectancy in Lewisham is over 12 months lower than the London average for men and women – however the gap is narrowing. Within the borough, there is an 8 year gap in life expectancy for men born in Blackheath and New Cross.
Life expectancy at birth, 1993-2008
66.00
68.00
70.00
72.00
74.00
76.00
78.00
80.00
82.00
84.00
1991-1993
1992-1994
1993-1995
1994-1996
1995-1997
1996-1998
1997-1999
1998-2000
1999-2001
2000-2002
2001-2003
2002-2004
2003-2005
2004-2006
2005-2007
2006-2008
Life expectancy at birth - England female Life expectancy at birth: London femaleLife expectancy at birth - Lewisham female Life expectancy at birth: England maleLife expectancy at birth: London male Life expectancy at birth: Lewisham male
Breakdown of the life expectancy gap by disease
Breakdown of the life expectancy gap by disease
Children and Young People Strategic Partnership
Adult Strategic Partnership
Safer Lewisham Partnership
Stronger Communities Partnership
Economic Development and Enterprise Board
Sustainable Development Partnership
LSP Board
Quarterly Performance Reporting to thematics
Exception Reports to LSP Board
Coordinating the six monthly performance reports from thematics
Public Services Board LSP Strategy Group
Partner Org Executive Management Teams
Six monthly performance reports to LSP Board
Lewisham Strategic Partnership: Structure
Ambitious and achieving: Where people are inspired and supported to fulfill their potential
• Record GCSE results in 2008-09 – 250 more pupils achieved Grades A*-C than the year before
• Gap narrowing in GCSE results between Black African & Black Caribbean pupils and peers, and pupils on Free School Meals and their peers
£300m secured to transform our schools through BSF programme - 9 schools already rebuilt or refurbished
Ambitious and achieving: Where people are inspired and supported to fulfill their potential
• Council one of only 10 LAs judged as performing ‘excellently’ in children’s services
• 75% of pupils participate in positive activities, well above national average
• Halved the number of NEETs between 2005 and 2009
• Goldsmiths, University of London rated 33rd in the country in the Times Higher Education league table, and 9th for research
• Lewisham College given Centre for Excellence in Leadership Award for Leadership In Innovation for Curriculum Development, and Learning and Skills Council Award for Equality and Diversity
Safer: Where people feel safe and live free from crime, antisocial behaviour and abuse
• Diamond Initiative has seen significant reduction in reoffendingamong offenders serving prison sentences of <12months
• Almost 2,000 fewer crimes committed in Lewisham in the last 12 months, compared to the previous 12 months (overall reduction of 6.5%)
• Reduction of 12.3% in acquisitive crime and 20% in domestic violence
• High trust and confidence in police and public services’ efforts to tackle crime in Lewisham
• Youth reoffending down from 90 per 100 offenders in 08-09 to 74 in 09-10
Empowered and responsible: Where people are actively involved in their local area and contribute to supportive communities
• Lewisham awarded CAA Green Flag for community empowerment • Local assemblies scheme continues to flourish, with over £1m spent on local
priorities• Phoenix Community Housing the first tenant-led Housing Association in
London • Volunteering opportunities increased through work of Volunteering Strategy
Steering Group and additional WNF funding • VAL reviewed process for VCS representation on Board, and held elections • 80% of FJF jobs delivered through VCS or private sector • Relaunch of Compact, and delivery of new set of Commissioning Principles
for the Council and Third Sector • Participatory budgeting approach developed
• 900 young people recruited to Young Citizens Panels Forum across the borough• Increased turn-out for Young Mayor scheme
Clean, green and liveable: Where people live in high quality housing and can care for and enjoy their environment
• Low landfill rates of 7.3% through use of local incinerator • Energy Action Zones: advice provided to 8,000 homes, saving 12,000
tonnes of carbon (equivalent to £1.2m over lifetime of measures)• Substantial investment by range of housing associations to improve
living conditions for thousands of Lewisham residents • On target to deliver over 1,200 new affordable homes by 2012• Over 800 properties brought back into use between 2005-08• Number of households in temporary accommodation reduced from
2,581 in March 2008 to 1,294 in Jan 2010
• Eight Lewisham parks awarded Green Flag status
Healthy, active and enjoyable: Where people can actively participate in maintaining and improving their health and well-being
• Life expectancy rising faster than the national average for men and women
• Reduction in proportion of low birth weight babies – ahead of target. • Breastfeeding rates at 6-8 weeks among 5 best PCT areas in country • Transfer of Community Services from NHS Lewisham to University
Hospital Lewisham• Progress continues (through Total Place) to formalise joint
commissioning between LBL and NHS Lewisham
• Opening of new facilities across the partnership – such as DownhamHealth & Leisure Centre, Kaleidoscope, Riverside Wing and Waldron Health Centre
Dynamic and prosperous: Where people are part of vibrant communities and town centres, well connected to London and beyond
• LSP held ‘Recession: Meeting the challenge’ event for Lewisham citizens – additional events held by RSLs
• Allocation of c.£4m of Working Neighbourhoods Funds, focusing on those furthest from the labour market and business, enterprise, town centres and third sector
• Significant investment to transform Catford, Lewisham and Deptford town centres
Dynamic and prosperous: Where people are part of vibrant communities and town centres, well connected to London and beyond
• JCP worked with partners to implement Young Person’s Guarantee, including 398 FJF jobs
• Apprenticeship scheme set up across public services• 2830 customers placed into work through Local
Employment Partnerships • LBL supported 119 businesses to start up, and
advised 550+ existing businesses
Lewisham has been at the forefront of the ‘more for less’ agenda, through our Total Place pilot
Total Place: a Government-led initiative looking at how a ‘whole area’ approach can lead to better services at a
lower cost.
Lewisham one of 13 pilot areas carrying out two main areas of work:
High level count: counting all the public money spent in each pilot area, across all public agencies. Approx figure for Lewisham is £2.3bn.
Detailed exploration of one or more themes. We have chosen the following four themes in Lewisham:
• Offender management • Health & social care • Assets and energy• Worklessness & unemployment
Despite our achievements, Lewisham faces a number of challenges in the months and years ahead – many linked to the recession.
JSA claimants, April 2008 to April 2010
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-0
8Ju
l-08
Aug-0
8Sep
-08
Oct-08
Nov-0
8Dec
-08
Jan-0
9Fe
b-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-0
9Ju
l-09
Aug-0
9Sep
-09
Oct-09
Nov-0
9Dec
-09
Jan-1
0Fe
b-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
Inner London Lewisham Great BritainLondon
Claimant rates are predicted by the GLA to continue to rise into 2012, before a very gradual recovery over the next ten years
The number of JSA claimants in Lewisham rose from 5,675 in April 08 to 9,196 in April 10. This mirrors similarly steep rises across the country.
Employment opportunities have diminished – particularly the types of jobs young people want
Total Claimants by Sought Occupation and Total Unfilled VacanciesLewisham, September 2009, by Broad Job Type
115 110
255
285
190
140
475
95
355
10 20
60
125
45 55
295
15
135
3315
4122
4059
3723
73
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Managers andSenior Officers
ProfessionalOccupations
AssociateProfessional
and TechnicalOccupations
Administrativeand Secretarial
Occupations
Skilled TradesOccupations
PersonalService
Occupations
Sales andCustomer
ServiceOccupations
Process, Plantand MachineOperatives
ElementaryOccupations
All Claimants
18-24 Claimants
Vacancies
•Number of claimants outstrips vacancies for all types of jobs. •Young people particularly want to work in Sales and Customer Service. •This sector has few vacancies, and young people are in competition with a number of adults for jobs too.
The ratio of low skilled residents to low skilled jobs is particularly high in London – which is likely to hit Lewisham
residents harder than most
Economic recovery is likely to be a long process
Managing the recovery: the three waves of recession
WAVE 1: Economic
Relatively short period where economic output declines,
unemployment rises quickly, and real
income falls
WAVE 2: Social
Growth returns, but job losses continue –
bringing with it increasing social problems such as
housing, health and domestic problems
WAVE 3: Unequal Recovery
Overall, economy is in recovery. However,
not all areas benefit –some continue to
decline, suffering long-term unemployment, low aspirations, long-
term ill health and cohesion issues
Source: Social Exclusion Task Force, Learning from the Past, Dec 2009
Although overall crime has fallen, there has been a rise of 10% in serious youth violence
10%6.5%
9%
20%
Overall crime
Acquisitive crime
Domestic violence
2.5%
Serious youth violence
Residential burglary
51
29
27
27
22
20
18
15
15
13
13
10
10
9
Crime
Traffic congestion
Lack of jobs
Prov. for young people**
Level of Council Tax
Litter
Standard of education
Pollution
Rising Prices / Interest Rates**
Quality of health service
Lack of rec. facilities
Public transport
Prov, for elderly
Homelessness
%
Areas of concern for Lewisham residents
**Please note: Base for Prov. for young people (512) & Rising Prices/ Interest Rates (510)
Source: Q11 Which three, of these, are you personally most concerned about? Base: All Lewisham Residents (1022)
*Lack of affordable housing removed from 09/10 Survey
Diff to 2007/08
-2
+5+13
+7-2
+1
+2-2-1+1
-6-1
-4-2
What people think they want
A recent MORI poll showed that:
• 54% were in favour of cuts in public spending, with 39% against. 47% in favour and 46% against when potential consequences of cuts are spelt out in detail
• 85% favour greater local control over public services, but only 63% do so when it is made clear that this will lead to local variations
• 49% strongly agree that people should get more involved in improving services/local areas – but only 28% would get involved themselves
Summary of future challenges over medium to long term
JSA claimants at historically high levels
Lewisham residents have a low skills set when compared to other Inner London boroughs –forecasts for growth are in specialist sectors
Although the gap in life expectancy has narrowed, significant health inequalities remain
Summary of future challenges over medium to long term
Challenge to bring Lewisham’s homes up to Decent Homes Standard
Recession likely to lead to medium to longer term social problems
Spending cuts present a major challenge to partners’ abilities to meet citizens’ needs
Serious youth violence on the rise
Challenges for the future
• Implementing Total Place– Worklessness & unemployment – Offender Management – Health & Social Care– Assets & Energy
• Commissioning and the third sector • Health inequalities• Jobs & opportunities for young people• Investing in social capital/LSP event • New Local Area Agreement
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