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Avril 9, 2011
Sufficiency, from production to usage
Frédéric Chomé
Factor-X the Climate Consulting Group sprl
ISEU Final meeting
(Free) ENERGY
The Sky is the limit
Really ?
2Plenty of free lunches ahead of us !
Les émissions de CO2 provenant de combustibles fossiles ont été multipliées par plus de 4 depuis 1950 (source AIE 2004)
World energy Consumption
1950 – 2000 :
Energy x 5
Population x 2
2000-2050:
Energy x 3
Population x 1,5
Gas
Oil
Hydro
Nuke
Coal
There’s much more Energy than Oil
Reserves : 400+ GtepConsumption : 11 GTtep
If 2% growth => less than 100 years
Renewables : Not an full-option for Europe
Source : Observatoire de l’Énergie, ADEME, CEREN
141 Mtoe/year7,8 % of primary energy
consumption AVG +6 Mtoe / yr 2004-2007
+10 Mtoe 2006 & 2007
10 Mtoe/year0.6 % of primary energy
Consumption
1807 Mtep/year for Gross Consumption
Green energy =
½ of growth in energy needs
1/3 of growth in Elec needsOver 1990 -
2007
Green energy preserves its
market share in a flat economy
but NO increase !
NegaWatt Plan : The Energy Challenge
Source: http://www.negawatt.org/
Less
Better(with the remaining)
Clean(1/2 of actual consumption)
PRIORITY
POLITICS
From Energy to Greenhouse Gases
Emissions : 1st Barrier
7
Flux anthropiques
14 Gteq Carbone ou 51 Gteq CO2 par an Atmosphère
Biosphère Océans
Lithosphère
Flux Naturels
Stocks et flux de carbone
8
En milliards de tonnes de carbone par an
61,5 60 92 90
0,8 0,04
Émissions totales : 150 GtCSéquestration : 153.5 GtC
10+ Gteq Carbone non recyclés annuellement
350 ppm pour 80% de certitude < 2°C
9
Ce que demande la science
CO2 fo
ssile
: -8
5%
till 2
030
Sou
rce
: H
anse
n &
al.
200
9
Country carbon footprint
Easy to compute but
partial referentials
10
UNFCCC Carbon footprint : GHG Inventory Belgium 2007 : 132 millions teqCO2
Source : climat.be
Illustration : Pascal Vilcollet
- 9%Depuis 1990
- 15%Depuis 1990
+ 20%Depuis 1990
- 24%Depuis 1990
+ 13%Depuis 1990
- 12%Depuis 1990
1 % 18 % 30 % 22 % 8 %21 %
Electricity Waste Transports Industry Buildings Agriculture
Carbon production in Belgium (approx)
How Much GHG in Belgium’s GDPEn Belgique en 2008 : 132,6 millions teqCO2
Source : climaterchange.be
Illustration : Pascal Vilcollet
26,1 MtCO2eq
1 % 18 % 32 % 22 % 7 %20 %
Énergie Déchets Transports Industrie Bâtiments Agriculture
1,3 MtCO2eq
24,1 MtCO2eq
41,4 MtCO2eq
28,6 MtCO2eq
9,1 MtCO2eq
28,5 MtCO2eq
+21,5 %
Non Comptabilisés : transport routier international de marchandises – Variations dues aux carburant dépensés à l’étranger par les véhicules légers belges
161,1 millions teqCO2 752,3 millions teqCO2
591,2 MtCO2eq
+467 %
X 5,7
Source : SPF économie, brochure Transport 2009/10
Source : Agence pour le commerce extérieur
EVOLUTION 1995 – 2010-11% ou +49 % ?
Non Comptabilisés : transport routier international de marchandises – Variations dues aux carburant dépensés à l’étranger par les véhicules légers belges
-11%
750500MTeqCO2
+49%
337254GDP Md€ +33%
94%46%Import/GDP
GHG increase quicker than GDP !!!
Partial referential Strange politics
NO good decisions
Marginal operational efficiency gains with no account of production &
consumption behaviors
14
15
Centralized Intermittent Energy ; WindMills production concentrated (few countries)
Environmental ROI : 6 yearsInvestor’s ROI : 0,5 year
Green certificate bonus = 850 €/ tCO2 (avoided)CO2 market price : 13 €/tCO2
8 to 10 years for construction GHG payback in Belgium
16
Financial ROI : 20%GHG ROI : 10% max
But the system allows to decentralise energy production and to tend towards energy sufficency for buildings
Making money with energy savings ?
• Bank savings account : 2% return• Solar PV panels : 20% return do it for money
• Energy savings return
• Versus 560 eur / yearOf green certificates for
18
Housing construction growth = 3 x population growth
Yearly new constructions < 1% of total existing constructions
Natural materials DO REALLY HELP to reduce the environmental impacts of the construction phase
Building = designed by an architect,
sometime forgotten fluxes
Buildings CO2 = CO2 Building phase + Lifetime CO2 Energy usages + Lifetime CO2 Induced transport + CO2 Demolition
Buildings CO2 = CO2/kWh x kWh/m2 x m2/resident x Residents/household x Nb households + Mobility of inhabitants
Bilan de travaux de construction et de réhabilitation
New buildings are 6 x more carbon intensive than retrofit
BEFORE AFTER
Earnings/year
45 years of earnings as pay-back of construction
Equiv. To building Lifetime
NO real gains
Improve Savings (Commuting, energy,…)
Reduce Construction impacts
20
Transport GHG rose by 30% from 1990 Efficiency per km has been divided by 2 since 1990
+ Citizenshaving
+ carsDoing each
+ km
CO2 = CO2/km x km/car x Nb cars/household x Nb households
21
Replacement effect : The better the performance, the longer you
keep the car
Grey GHG: 3.500 kg CO2eLifetime energy GHG : 1400 kg CO2e
NO global Efficiency
Conventional Halogen
Production : 88Use : 521 TOTAL : 600
Lighting All values in kg CO2e for 50.000 h
in Belgium
LED (China)
Production : 30,5Use : 195TOTAL : 225,5
LED (Belgium)
Production : 6,2Use : 91TOTAL : 97,2
Towards green Businesses
24
Business
Environmental impacts Zero impact Growth
Absolute Decoupling
Relative DecouplingAction plan
Relative vs. Absolute Decoupling
TimeFootprint t0
Green businesses ?
26
High Tech, Capital intensive
o Renewable energy productiono Electric Transport o Alternative fuels o Dessalinisation o Green-IT (ECO-TIC)o Green Buildingso Carbon Credits, markets o Housing retrofit = jobs provider
Financial bubbleso Raw materialso Crops o fresh water o Ground
Green Economy 1.0
Large classical corporations,Green = better and more expensive
max 10% of Market share
Low Tech, Low Cost
o Local production for local marketso Inspiration from Dev. Countries o R – activitiesRefuse, Reduce, reuse,, repair, repurpose, recycle, recover, respect, rethink, …, o Closed loop economy (shortage
value)o PSS & Idling capacityo Shorter value chains , vertical
integration…
Green =o New services, products o Alternative marketing o Alternative business models,
pricing o New values, like TRUSTGreen Economy 2.0
Small scale, slow, network, collaborative lifestyles,
Green = different and cheaper Min 90% of Market share
Initiating changes, evaluating risks
27
New markets, service economy
New complementary product lines, close loops
« Marginal gains » :
optimisation, efficiency
New vision, mission &
business models
Job
/ M
issi
on
Product
id
≠
id ≠
28
Money Money Money
Do not expect help from others….
…Do it for yourself
29
30
• GDP Belgium 2008: 344 676 Million €
• GHG Belgique 2008 : 132,6 Million Tonnes CO2éq.
• Added Value / tCO2e: 2600 Euros
• Ratio with market price x 173
Source : climatechange.be ; statbel ; eex
CO2 EARNINGS
• Stabilise GHG concentrations 2 to 3 % World GDP / year
• Costs of inaction : 20% World GDP at least
• Costs if 10 more years before actions x 5 for costs of action & inaction
How much to « save the planet » ? What does economists tell us
Source : Stern Review reviewed (2009) ; Mc Kinsey 2009
75 €/t CO2
NOW !
READY to allow 3% of your Gross margin to climate plans ?
CO2 market Prices
15 €/t CO2
Before Leaving you…
Environmental Risks accross the full Value Chain What if ?
Indirect >> direct Dependency vs impacts
Less , Better, Differently, someting else From product to service
Increase lifetime & guarantee, making things last longer, PSS Promote vertical integration (margin management) & B2C
Initiate, Develop and conslidate postivie activities : More fun, more earnings, less environmental impacts.
New economic models for new activities : Green grey , lifecycle costs, etc.
Important changes are made by people like you and me
A R E Y O U I N ? 31
Thank You !
Frédéric Chomé
+32 (0) 474 701 832
20, Rue du Château
6536 Thuin - BELGIUM
www.theccgroup.eu
Skype : fredchome
Blog Demande à FredO :
http://www.terra-economica.info/Demande-a-FredO,608.html32