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I S A A A
Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops, 2011
Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops, 2011
by
Margaret Karembu
Director, ISAAA Africenter
23rd February 2012OFAB-KENYA
by
Margaret Karembu
Director, ISAAA Africenter
23rd February 2012OFAB-KENYA
I S A A A
• COMMERCIALIZATION 1996 to 2011
• GROWING IMPORTANCE OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES – Brazil
• IMPACT OF BIOTECH CROPS (1996 to 2010)
• FUTURE PROSPECTS – 2012-2015 (MDG)
Overview of Presentation
I S A A AISAAA – www.isaaa.org
A Not-for-Profit Charity, co-sponsored by public and private sector organizations
ISAAA is a Pro-Choice Organization
• Share knowledge freely on crop biotechnology whilst respecting the rights of others to make their own decisions; ensure that the global society is well informed about the attributes and potentials of the new crop biotech applications
• MISSION – Contribute to poverty alleviation by increasing crop productivity and income generation, particularly for small resource-poor farmers and to ensure a safer and more sustainable environment
I S A A A
• NO SINGLE APPROACH can feed >9 billion in 2050 & >10 B in 2100
• Conventional crop improvement ALONE will not double crop production by 2050 – GM/BIOTECH CROPS NOT A PANACEA but essential
• Successful strategy must have MULTIPLE APPROACHES that address all the principal issues that include:
• Population stabilization – Africa 3.6 B in 2100 out of 10.1 B• Improved food distribution systems, and less wastage • A Technology Component is ESSENTIAL – A crop
improvement STRATEGY THAT INTEGRATES the BEST of the OLD (CONVENTIONAL) and the BEST of the NEW (BIOTECH) to optimize productivity and CONTRIBUTE to food, feed and fiber security and address climate change
THE Challenge – DOUBLE Crop Production by 2050 on LESS resources – water, N2, etc
I S A A A
COMMERCIALIZATION OF
BIOTECH CROPS
1996 to 2011
I S A A A
I S A A A
Global Area (Million Hectares) of Biotech Crops, 2011: by Country
Biotech Mega Countries
50,000 hectares (125,000 acres), or more
1. USA2. Brazil*3. Argentina*4. India*5. Canada6. China*7. Paraguay*8. Pakistan*9. South Africa*10. Uruguay*11. Bolivia*12. Australia13. Philippines*14. Myanmar*15. Burkina Faso*16. Mexico*17. Spain
69.030.323.710.610.4
3.92.82.62.31.30.90.70.60.30.30.10.1
Less than 50,000 hectares
Colombia*Chile*Honduras*Portugal
Czech RepublicPolandEgypt*Slovakia
* Developing countries
8%
Increase over 2010 29 countries which have adopted biotech crops
In 2011, global area of biotech crops was 160 million hectares, representing an increase of 8% over 2010, equivalent to 12 million hectares.
Source: Clive James, 2011.
RomaniaSwedenCosta Rica*Germany
Million Hectares
I S A A A
GROWING IMPORTANCE OF
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
I S A A A
• 19 out of 29 biotech countries were Developing
• For first time dev countries planted 50% of global area
• Expected to exceed industrial country hectares in 2012
• Brazil largest gain worldwide – 4.9 M Ha, 19% of global
• Top 7 Developing countries planted >2 M Ha each
• Growth rate twice as fast 8.2 M Ha (11%) vs 3.8 M Ha (5%)
• ~16 M small biotech farmers, up ~1.3 M from 2010.
• 1996-2010 Econ gain $39.2 B; in 2010 $7.7 vs $6.3 in Industrial
• 19 out of 29 biotech countries were Developing
• For first time dev countries planted 50% of global area
• Expected to exceed industrial country hectares in 2012
• Brazil largest gain worldwide – 4.9 M Ha, 19% of global
• Top 7 Developing countries planted >2 M Ha each
• Growth rate twice as fast 8.2 M Ha (11%) vs 3.8 M Ha (5%)
• ~16 M small biotech farmers, up ~1.3 M from 2010.
• 1996-2010 Econ gain $39.2 B; in 2010 $7.7 vs $6.3 in Industrial
OVERVIEW OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES versus INDUSTRIAL, 2011
Source: Clive James, 2012
I S A A A
Brazil in Latin America
Land Area: 850 M HaPopulation: 195 MillionArable land: 59 M HaCommercialized Biotech
Crops: HT soybean, Bt cotton and Bt maize
Biotech Crops Hectarage: 30 M Ha
I S A A A
• Ranked #2 with 30.3 M Ha equivalent to 19% of global area of 160 M Ha in 2011
• Biotech Soy >20 M Ha (83% adoption), biotech maize >9 M Ha (65% adoption) and biotech cotton >0.5 M Ha (39% adoption)
• Largest hectare gain worldwide for third consecutive year – 4.9 M Ha equivalent to 19% growth in 2011
• Economic gain 2003-2010 – $4.6 B; $1.2 B in 2010 alone
• EMBRAPA is Ag. R & D organization with cooperative programs in Africa – CTNBio is regulation agency
• Former President Ignacio Lula da Silva awarded World Food Prize in 2011 for alleviating Poverty and Hunger
• Ranked #2 with 30.3 M Ha equivalent to 19% of global area of 160 M Ha in 2011
• Biotech Soy >20 M Ha (83% adoption), biotech maize >9 M Ha (65% adoption) and biotech cotton >0.5 M Ha (39% adoption)
• Largest hectare gain worldwide for third consecutive year – 4.9 M Ha equivalent to 19% growth in 2011
• Economic gain 2003-2010 – $4.6 B; $1.2 B in 2010 alone
• EMBRAPA is Ag. R & D organization with cooperative programs in Africa – CTNBio is regulation agency
• Former President Ignacio Lula da Silva awarded World Food Prize in 2011 for alleviating Poverty and Hunger
BRAZIL – THE LEAD DEVELOPING COUNTRY
Source: Clive James, 2012
I S A A A
INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHS
• EMBRAPA – Strong biotech program, well-resourced
• CTNBio – Effective & timely deregulation – 14 products approved in 2010/2011
DIVERSIFIED SOURCE OF PRODUCTS 3 product streams
Private – Proprietary products deployed on 30 M Ha
Public/Private – Joint effort of EMBRAPA/BASF has already resulted in approved HT soybean
Public – EMBRAPA has already developed and approved home-grown virus resistant biotech bean
• 3 product streams, minimizes opportunity cost and maximizes impact
INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHS
• EMBRAPA – Strong biotech program, well-resourced
• CTNBio – Effective & timely deregulation – 14 products approved in 2010/2011
DIVERSIFIED SOURCE OF PRODUCTS 3 product streams
Private – Proprietary products deployed on 30 M Ha
Public/Private – Joint effort of EMBRAPA/BASF has already resulted in approved HT soybean
Public – EMBRAPA has already developed and approved home-grown virus resistant biotech bean
• 3 product streams, minimizes opportunity cost and maximizes impact
BRAZIL – THE SRATEGIC ELEMENTS
Source: Clive James, 2012
I S A A ABiotech commercial
South Africa - Maize, cotton, soybean
Egypt - Maize
Burkina Faso - Cotton
Biotech crops on trialRSA - potatoes, sugarcane, WEMA – RSA, Kenya, Uganda
Kenya – cotton, maize, SP, cassavaEgypt – cotton, potato, wheat, cucumber, melonUganda - banana, cotton, cassava, maize, riceNigeria - cowpea, cassava
Africa Overview Biotech Crops planting 2011
I S A A A
Case Study – Biotech cotton in Burkina Faso
Pictures: SOFITEX cotton company, Dec 2011
I S A A A
Case Study – Biotech cotton in Burkina Faso• Total cotton hectarage in Burkina(424,810 ha)
• In 2011, ~247,000 (58%) hectares Bt cotton planted, from 260,000 hectares in 2010
Slight decline of 5% (or 13,433ha)-
Key reasons for decline :• Farmers dissatisfied with purchase price offered for their 2010
cotton(245 CFA/Kg~0.5 USD for Bt or non Bt cotton)-Desired price:500CFA/Kg~1USD)
• Farmers discouraged by rising costs of fertilizer • Poor agronomic practices• Erratic rains after planting
~ 76,000 farmers planted Bt cotton
• Adoption rate for Bt cotton: 58%
I S A A A
Biotech cotton in Burkina Faso
Estimated economic benefit from Bt cotton - over US$100 million/yr based on yield increases of close to 30%, plus at least 50% reduction in insecticides sprays, from a total of 8 sprays to
only 2 to 4 sprays for Bt cotton
I S A A A
IMPACT OF BIOTECH CROPS
I S A A A
• IMPROVED PRODUCTIVITY AND INCOME – Farm income gains of $78 B from 1996 to 2010, of which 40% was due to cost reduction and 60% due to a production gain of 276 M tons; benefits conservative due spill-over from biotech to conventional.
• PROTECT BIODIVERSITY – 276 M tons would require additional 91 M Ha – biotech is a land saving technology. Strategy is to double crop production on same area of 1.5 B Ha of crop land – saves forests/biodiversity – 13 M Ha lost/year.
• ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT – Reduce need for external inputs – Saving of 443 M kg pesticides from 1996/2010 – 9% saved– Saved 19 B kg C02 in 2010 - contribution to climate change
– Conservation of soil & WATER thru biotech + no/low till
• HUMANITARIAN BENEFITS – Contribution to poverty alleviation of ~15 M small resource-
poor farmers in 2011 & welfare benefits emerging
GLOBAL IMPACT OF BIOTECH CROPS Source: Brookes and Barfoot, 2012 Forthcoming; Clive James, 2012
I S A A A
THE FUTURE
2012 - 2015
THE REMAINING FOUR YEARS OF THE SECOND DECADE OF
COMMERCIALIZATION
2015, The Millennium Development Goal Year
I S A A A
• Several new biotech crop options --- 3 examples
• 2012 – first stacked HT/IR soybean, particularly Brazil
• 2013 – first drought tolerant maize in US; in Africa ~2017
• 2013/14 – Golden Rice in the Philippines; US, omega 3 soy
• Other candidates before 2015 include: several dual-action products for more effective & durable pest and weed management; and possibly biotech sugar cane in Indonesia
• Biotech applications for “Speeding the breeding” – MAS and others, plus biotech crops, to provide a faster response to more severe and rapid changes in climate
THE FUTURE – 2012 - 2015 NEW & IMPROVED BIOTECH CROPS
I S A A A
I S A A A
Implementation of APPROPRIATE REGULATION is a MUST to spur adoption of biotech crops in AFRICA Source:Compiled by Clive James, 2012
2011 (3 countries)South Africa, Burkina Faso
and Egypt
2015 (up to 10 countries) South Africa, Burkina Faso, Egypt, Kenya, Uganda, Mali,
Togo, Nigeria,, Ghana and possibly Malawi
EGYPT
BURKINAFASO
SOUTHAFRICA
MALAWI
BURKINAFASO
TOGO
UGANDA
SOUTHAFRICA
EGYPT
KENYA
TANZANIA
NIGERIA
MALI
KENYA
UGANDA
NIGERIA
Ongoing Biotech Crop Field Testing
I S A A A
Biotech crops are a product of
INNOVATION “the ability to manage change as an
opportunity, not as a threat”
We therefore need to communicate with society objectively and
consistently
Way forward for Africa
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