IRELAND: MIGRATION AND EU ENLARGEMENT

Kevin QuinnManager, International Employment

ServicesFAS

Ireland

Keflavic 30th May 2008

Irish Employment 1988-2007

11,11,21,31,41,51,61,71,81,9

22,12,22,3

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Mil

lion

Irish Economic FactsIrish Economic FactsGDP (2007) €185bnGDP Growth (2007) 5.3%GDP per Capita (2007) €42,581 ($64k)Irish GDP per Capita as % of EU 142%Inflation (2007) 4.9%Current Account Deficit (2007) 5.9% of GDPPopulation (2007) 4.3 million Average Full Time Wage (2007) €764National Minimum Wage (July 2007) €8.65 per hourWeekly Unemployment All.(Jan 2008) €197.80Adult Dependent (Jan 2008) €131.30

Implications for Eures Ireland,implications for

Eures, EuropeStill a shortage of key workers

Change in Socio-Economic Indicators 1995-2006

20071995

51%64%Dependency rate

4.5%12.2%Unemployment rate

101,000177,000Unemployment

69%47%Employment rate

2.1m1.28mEmployment

3.7m2.7mPopulation Aged 15+

4.3m3.6mPopulation

Employment Growth 1998-2007

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

000s

Unemployment Trends 1998-2007

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

000s

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

%

000s

%

Employment growth by sector 2004- 2007

- 50

0

50

100

150

200

25000

0s

Labour Force Growth Decomposed

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

000s

Natural increaseParticipationMigration

To Twenty-five….and then?

How far east?

To Twenty-five….and then?

How far east?

Post-enlargement migration trendPPSN Allocations to EU10

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000Ju

l-04

Oct-

04

Jan-05

Apr-

05

Jul-

05

Oct-

05

Jan-06

Apr-

06

Jul-

06

Oct-

06

Jan-07

Apr-

07

Jul-

07

Oct-

07

Jan-08

Apr-

08

Peak

Minimum Monthly Salary in the EU

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

000s

Sectoral Employment Growth by Nationality Since Enlargement

- 40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

000s

Non- Irish

Irish

Total

Unemployment Rising RapidlyLive Register

150000

160000

170000

180000

190000

200000

210000

Jan-02 Sep-02 May-03 Jan-04 Sep-04 May-05 Jan-06 Sep-06 May-07 Jan-08

Figure 1.6: Unemployment Trends 2001-2007

0

2

4

6

8

10

%

EU27

Ireland

Labour demand has been strong

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

FAS Vacancies 2003-2007

Work Permit

Non-Work Permit

……..but shortages have been ..but shortages have been bearablebearable

……..but employers ..but employers increasingly pessimisticincreasingly pessimistic

Figure 1.9: Annual Employment Growth (%) 2002-2007

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

% A

nn

ual

Gro

wth

Rat

e

Quarter-on-Quarter Construction Employment Growth 2002-2007

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

000s

Employment Growth 1996-2009

- 40

- 20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

000s

Forecast

  2007 2008 2009

Agriculture 116 117 115

Construction 282 262 245

Manufacturing 296 292 287

Services 1,424 1,470 1,473

Total Employment 2,117 2,141 2,120

Unemployed 101 124 150

Labour Force 2,217 2,265 2,270

Net Immigration 65 25 0

Unemployment Rate 4.5% 5.5% 6.6%

Implications for Eures, Ireland.Implications for Eures, Europe.

Skilled available workforceStill a shortage(20,000) key workers

We brought them over, we have a responsibility

Eures must be more proactive on policyWe have a system, lets use it!

ConclusionsConclusions• Irish Labour Market has been the envy of Irish Labour Market has been the envy of

EuropeEurope

There has also been cyclical variationThere has also been cyclical variation

Second wave of the boom is coming to an Second wave of the boom is coming to an

endend

Unemployment will depend on labour supply Unemployment will depend on labour supply

responseresponse

Volatility makes medium-term prospects Volatility makes medium-term prospects

uncertainuncertain

Some groups will be particularly vulnerableSome groups will be particularly vulnerable

Thank you!Komið og dansið með okkur á Írlandi